Will A New AWB Happen: A Poll


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nwilliams
January 1, 2013, 02:50 AM
Are all these panic buyers crazy, do you think there will be a new AWB ban put into place this year?

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mdauben
January 1, 2013, 11:04 PM
Personally I think if it could have been somehow put to a vote before Xmas it might well have passed. With each succeeding week I think the chances lessen as resistance stiffens and the initial public outrage is distracted by other issues.

But I could be wrong. :(

wacki
January 1, 2013, 11:06 PM
Personally I think if it could have been somehow put to a vote before Xmas it might well have passed. With each succeeding week I think the chances lessen as resistance stiffens and the initial public outrage is distracted by other issues.

This is exactly what they are saying on NPR. And they act like this is a bad thing. Because heavens forbid we vote on a bill with a clear mind. :-p

winchester1886
January 1, 2013, 11:11 PM
:cuss:I think the Republicans will cave in to the Dems and the weapon ban will be a lot worse than in 1994.

MErl
January 1, 2013, 11:32 PM
I wish I could vote:
Nothing much will happen federally.
In this state though, hang on it is gonna be a wild ride.

mrokern
January 1, 2013, 11:38 PM
Nationally, I think the House will stop it.

However, I think a number of states (including mine) have storms coming.

mokin
January 1, 2013, 11:42 PM
I sure hope all y'all nay-sayers are correct. At this point there's nothing I can do about it except contact my representatives and the White House-which I've done. I get the feeling attention is focused else where at the moment....

wacki
January 1, 2013, 11:59 PM
I vote cave

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/12/31/are-congressional-republicans-already-caving-in-on-gun-control/

Unless everyone writes their reps.

hso
January 2, 2013, 12:05 AM
None of us have any idea if an AWB, or something worse, will be signed into law because nothing has been submitted to be sent to committee and come out of committee for a floor vote in either the House or Senate.

Making a decision that all is lost or that victory is assured is the surest way to loose this fight.

wacki
January 2, 2013, 12:15 AM
None of us have any idea if an AWB, or something worse, will be signed into law because nothing has been submitted to be sent to committee and come out of committee for a floor vote in either the House or Senate.

Making a decision that all is lost or that victory is assured is the surest way to loose this fight.

I just want to be clear that I don't think all is lost. I've donated to SAF and NRA-ILA. I've also written all my reps email and I'm sending out paper letters. I'm doing everything I can.

I hope others are as well because it seems like many aren't taking this seriously.

jim243
January 2, 2013, 12:18 AM
Insufficent information is available to make any kind of perdiction. However I will predict that the cost of gun ownership will go up either by a tax or a requirement for all gun owners to obtain additional liability insurance needed to own a firearm just as you do to own a car.

Jim

DammitBoy
January 2, 2013, 12:38 AM
I can't vote for the option: There will be a new ban but I have no reason to panic or buy anything.

gbran
January 2, 2013, 12:55 AM
I predict no chance for a fed AWB, but a slim, very slim chance for a fed hi-cap mag ban. I predict most new laws will come from a few states.

Balrog
January 2, 2013, 01:18 AM
If there is another mass shooting (and you know it is inevitable), what do you think that will do to the chances of a ban?

2RCO
January 2, 2013, 01:25 AM
If we don't get out there and use every bit of influence we have we will at best see a high cap mag ban.

I agree that a defeatist attitude will get us nowhere but denying that a possible ban can happen might lead us to defeat. On THR we can use reason when preaching to the choir but antis will use emotions and gut reactions to beat our reason with the general population. I heard many times during the last election that we don't have to worry about Obama changing our gun laws and that he wouldn't win anyway because he didn't have enough support. The viewpoint of people in this nation is changing and there are many amongst gun owners that see no need for "assault weapons."

I recently sat down with some folks--all gun owners, all hunters, mostly republican, overwhelmingly they agreed that there was no need for 30 rounds. I was utterly shocked but then I remembered Bill Ruger's comments years ago.

Girodin
January 2, 2013, 01:38 AM
None of us have any idea if an AWB, or something worse, will be signed into law

No one knows for sure. However, it is very possible to make some educated guesses by looking at the make up of the incoming congress, looking at the various members the track records on guns, their recent statements, etc.

We know some sort of AWB will be proposed. We have had years of these proposals to give us an idea of what they typically include. We have Feinstein telling us expressly what her bill will contain.

In sum, none of us are clairvoyant, nor have we seen finalized language of the proposed bill, to say nothing of how it may be amended. However, to say no one has ANY idea is a bit too much.

It is safe to say any gun control proposal will have a tough time in the house. Something as sweeping as Feinstein's proposed legislation will be a non starter.

I see three big targets

1. So called Assault weapons. Feinsteins bill uses a shockingly expansive definition. Such a broad ban has little hope. Even a more tailored definition I see as being unlikely to pass. I do not think an AWB is getting through the house. Even the Senate under democratic control is far from a given

2. Mags holding more than 10 rounds. This has better odds but I still don't see it getting through the house.

3. Ban on face to face sales without a back ground check. I see this as being the most likely measure. I don't know that even it will happen. I don't like it and I don't think it would do anything to prevent restricted people from getting guns, nor would it in anyways make us safer or reduce crime. As such I think its a bad law. I think this is something most people could be sold on though.

I do think some states may pass stuff and those folks will be left hoping the SCOTUS eventually strikes those laws.

2RCO
January 2, 2013, 01:45 AM
Dollar,

I definitely advised them of my viewpoint in as civil a manner as possible. I won a couple over with the slippery slope argument of what happens when someone determines your 94 Winchester has too many rounds.

Sadly there are many NRA members that would agree with the Sporting Purpose BS.

Cosmoline
January 2, 2013, 01:47 AM
This is a government that can barely keep paying its bills and has to shuffle money around in abject panic to make ends meet, like we've just seen. The only thing I'm seriously concerned about is a TAX on our arms and ammo.

leadcounsel
January 2, 2013, 02:08 AM
I sadly think something in terms of an AWB or a compilation of complicated laws and Executive Order is going to happen. It makes me upset to believe it, but the Dems are too powerful to stop, they have serious momentum, and they seem to have impunity and no fear of future elections. Over the last 4 years I have been repeatedly shocked at their ability to get things passed that I never would have believed. We'll also see state level attacks, just like we are seeing in many states.

They have frankly gotten away with murder(s) and the public just re-elects them.

I can't believe it's true, but it just is.

2008: I thought there was no way Obama would win. I was wrong.
Bailouts: I didn't believe they would happen and was wrong.
Obamacare: I didn't believe it would pass and was wrong.
Fast and Furious: A murdered border agent and hundreds of Mexicans with thousands of guns due to a scandal, and privilege was invoked and nobody has answered for it.
Benghazi. 4 Americans died from a terrorist attack and incompetance and a huge scandal and cover up occurred and nobody has answered for it.
Despite all this and the economy and oh so much more, 2012 saw the re-election of Obama and many other Dems. I was wrong in thinking they would lose.

The ONLY chance of beating any of this is for YOU to write ALL of your reps from the President down to the local Govenor and state reps.

anchorman
January 2, 2013, 04:33 AM
I recently sat down with some folks--all gun owners, all hunters, mostly republican, overwhelmingly they agreed that there was no need for 30 rounds. I was utterly shocked but then I remembered Bill Ruger's comments years ago.

I have been talking with a number of friends who are gun owners, and identify as democrats (if anything at all), and they are pretty much all against any sort of AWB. I have met people of all persuasions who are all for an AWB. The common denominator amongst almost everyone with whom I have spoken who is in favor of an AWB or at the least a magazine capacity limit, is that they are entirely unfamiliar with and fearful of firearms.

One has to remember, though, that there really is a strong, silent majority of the population that regardless of political affiliation or lack thereof, is very much in favor of our individual right to keep and bear arms. I have been hearing and reading for at least 4 years now, about how gun control is dead, that it is pretty much off the table. This is why in the last 4 years, we actually saw increasing adoption of permissive concealed carry laws, and we had the president signing a law allowing carry in national parks. You'll also note that opposition to any handgun bans is at it's highest since people have been polling about this - about 74% I read the other day. We just need to keep doing what we do, and give sane, sober arguments, and take our friends out shooting. Pick your battles and talk to those on the fence first. You're not going to persuade my father of anything, but I have a few friends on the fence, who when push comes to shove, really don't care one way or another. Sometimes not having people opposing you is as good as having them on your side. Those fence sitters are one reason why we take people shooting. Because really, who doesn't like to shoot 30 rounds in very short order down the range every once in a while?

bds
January 2, 2013, 09:36 AM
Interesting article - http://beta.fool.com/pierredv/2012/12/21/gun-we-trust/19649/?ticker=SWHC&source=eogyholnk0000001

According to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, there are now 51,000 retail gun stores in the USA. Sounds like a lot? It is. Compare that to: 14,000 McDonald's restaurants and 13,000 Starbucks stores nationwide. This means that there are almost twice as many gun stores than there are McDonald's and Starbucks COMBINED ...

Now the debate on gun control is back on the table once again. But don't get fooled by this: no politician, not even the President of the United States, will be able to harm the gun industry in any meaningful way. Doing so would not only be political suicide for any American politician seeking reelection in a country where 53% of all households own a gun but it would also be inconceivable from an economic standpoint because a thriving gun industry creates a huge number of jobs and millions of Americans depend on it in some form or another. In times of economic uncertainty when employment remains the major priority of the government, taking on the gun industry will not be the type of policy that would appeal to Washington.

MErl
January 2, 2013, 09:47 AM
that must be the # of 01 FFLs, not storefronts.

The rhetoric is all based on emotion and the longer it takes the less chance of anything getting past the house. Now if the (R) side keeps acting like idiots on the financial side we might be in trouble in 2 years but right now, nah.

More concerned about my state. (D) in solid control and the anti-gun lobby has been lining up with proposals. Going to be ugly there.

WoodchuckAssassin
January 2, 2013, 09:58 AM
Regardless of what may or may not happen, panicing is the WORSE thing to do. Every gun store in my home town has run dry of AK's, 223 ammo, and even .22's. Can you believe that? Not a single box of .22's!

People are crazy. Don't fall into it. Keep yourself informed, inform others, and that's really all anyone can do.

JayPee
January 2, 2013, 10:14 AM
Deleted by the author.

KMatch
January 2, 2013, 10:44 AM
All good, but the biggest rule of debating is to NOT use words like "I believe", "I feel", and such. This comes over as an opinion rather than factual. States things as fact: The statements above fly better leaving off the "I believe" line. Do the same when sending letters to congresscritters, etc. "The second amendment clearly states..."

GEM
January 2, 2013, 11:00 AM
I think (haha), we will not see a full AWB. I think we may see a mandatory NICS for private sales at gun shows with enhanced reported by the states. Just a hunch.

I have a proposal - if the latter is going to pass, I would (the great legislative genius that I am) add to the legislation the following:

1. Since the upgraded NICS is so good, then in all states, a citizen who passes should be able to purchase a firearm to have in their home or place of business. The check would be sufficient and no state or local entity can demand more.

Such an addition would be based on Heller and override the state laws and city regs. in places like NYC or IL or DC, etc. the horror show of getting a firearm for the home would be washed away and Mayor Bloomer would have swallow a big gulp on this one.

I've seen this done is some other states. Some minor gun law got us CCW in Oregon , IIRC.

Would I like to mandate shall issue carry in all places - yep. But what I proposed might be doable if it came to such a private sale law.

psyopspec
January 2, 2013, 11:02 AM
I work in finance. People who have the hubris to think they can predict the future with any consistency or accuracy don't hang around long. Why? Because it can't be done.

ETXhiker
January 2, 2013, 11:07 AM
A ban like the '94 law is not the worst case scenario. Many prominent politicians want outright confiscation. Yes, this would generate a backlash, but if you think it is too radical for the current administration, you aren't paying attention. I hope I'm wrong.

Hold on, 2013 is going to be a bumpy ride.

mljdeckard
January 2, 2013, 11:10 AM
This battle is mostly psychological. If they have gun owners convinced that they are already beaten, YOU ARE DOING THEIR WORK FOR THEM.

Cosmoline
January 2, 2013, 01:10 PM
The momentum is already leaving the sails, just as it always does:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2013/01/gun-control-doesnt-survive-christmas-153146.html

What we know:

--Congress is barely functional. Legislation that's been seen as routine for 200 years now requires all-nighters over New Years to pass.

--The antis have no clear agenda. They have no NRA. Their leaders have been all over the map on proposals, or lack thereof. Reviving a failed AWB is about the best they've come up with, and the chances of reenacting a law that was allowed to die are already stacked against them.

--The antis have very little technical knowledge. This cripples their ability to target pinch-points like primer production and forces them to rely on short-term emotional appeals.

--We don't live under a parliamentary system with a national government. We have a federalist system with a divided central government. So while emotional appeals can get traction in places like the UK and AU, they don't do so here absent HIGHLY extraordinary circumstances like 9/11.

--The antis seem unable to build on their successes. NICS is a good example. The most successful gun control law of our lifetimes. But they don't seem willing to call for its expansion openly. They claim it's about a "gun show loophole" instead of owning their victory and moving forward with it.

--The foreign antis have been helping us enormously. From the PM of Australia to Piers Morgan, their emotional confiscation rhetoric helps to make the antis look dangerously unhinged.

--Money talks. The influx of cash into EBR's and components has spoken volumes about the power of our numbers. And on the flip side, the fed's inability to make payroll on a reliable basis speaks volumes about its shortcomings. Any sweeping new law outlawing huge classes of arms will be expensive to implement. And they don't have any money. I'm worried more about them coming for our cash than our guns.

gbw
January 2, 2013, 02:14 PM
JUst one opinion...

I've watched carefully over the past years on many issues. The party out of power has been consistently out-thought, out-manouvered, out-worked, out-smarted, out-led, out-propagandized, and out-stratigized to a degree I would never have believed.

But they keep putting up the same lame, weak, confused, mediocre, stereotypical dimwits as leaders and candidates.

The party in power will find ways to do whatever they want, and it won't be hard for them. Do not count on the House of Representatives to help with anything. Expecting anything courageous or useful from our leadership is nothing but whistling past the graveyard.

razorback2003
January 2, 2013, 02:39 PM
I don't think Boehner will let this out of committee in the House.

In Tennessee, I have heard that we at one time had to get purchase permits from the county to buy a handgun. I have no idea if this was required to buy from a dealer or private individual. That is not the case anymore.


I could see cheap foreign 7.62 X 39 ammo stopped from being imported by the president.

cfullgraf
January 2, 2013, 03:11 PM
In Tennessee, I have heard that we at one time had to get purchase permits from the county to buy a handgun. I have no idea if this was required to buy from a dealer or private individual. That is not the case anymore.



In the 90s, I had to get written permission from my local TN county sheriff to buy a Contender handgun from a local FFL dealer. By the time I bought my next fire arm in TN, that was no longer the case, maybe after the instant check system was instated.

In my opinion, a gun ban is less likely until after the 2014 elections.

Depending on how the Republicans screw up during the next two years will depend on if they hold onto the House. If the Democrats get a hold of Congress, all bets are off on defeating a new Assault Weapons Ban.

The administration is viewing, per the media, that the current fiscal cliff avoidance as a victory. They will push harder on other agenda items to be passed their way.

Unfortunately, the administration campaigns for legislation in the press preventing meaningful negotiations among the members of Congress.

Skribs
January 2, 2013, 04:48 PM
I agree with those that say we can't become complacent, but can't panic, either. We need to be level-headed and logical in our approach, and diligent in our pursuit to preserve our rights.

Very good points, Cosmoline.

leadchucker
January 2, 2013, 06:57 PM
Panic buying is crazy, there will be no new AWB!

That's what they were saying in '94.

barnbwt
January 2, 2013, 07:03 PM
The administration is viewing, per the media, that the current fiscal cliff avoidance as a victory. They will push harder on other agenda items to be passed their way.

All the more reason to stymie the anti's now--keep the momentum neutral. I certaintly do love the logic that "we say we won, so now you have to follow us." Now that both parties have been trying that for an administration or two, they've both amassed so much "political capital" that they can't do anything:D

Let's not make the mistake of House Republicans and allow ourselves to be divided in this struggle by a false promise of "victory" in the form of compromise.

TCB

Ms_Dragon
January 2, 2013, 07:45 PM
I don't think anything will happen to be honest.

The American population is all ready worried about their financial security waiting for the fall out of the fiscal cliff negotiations.
Any further attempt to undermine the populations feeling of personal security by threatening the right to bear arms and their rights to protect their families will result in civil unrest.

wannabeagunsmith
January 2, 2013, 07:59 PM
Guys, this AWB is nothing like the last one.

ETXhiker
January 2, 2013, 08:06 PM
This battle is mostly psychological. If they have gun owners convinced that they are already beaten, YOU ARE DOING THEIR WORK FOR THEM.

No, that is not the problem. The problem is that they underestimate our resolve and believe they have the momentum behind them. I am not beaten and I will not register or give up my guns. The danger on our side is believing we are dealing with a government that still respects the Constitution. We are not beaten, but they are drunk with power and full of utopian ideas. If the House votes their bill down, there is still the "Executive Order" which dems have hinted will be used if necessary.

I am anything but defeated. We will win this. But underestimating your enemy is a good way to lose. It isn't "panic" to simply recognize when things are going in a bad direction.

-v-
January 2, 2013, 08:24 PM
Well, seeing as the whole fiscal cliff vote did little more then kick the can down the road another 2 months. The fiasco we just witnessed is only part one of a many part series. This whole mess is going to be repeated again in February, everyone knows it.

I highly doubt that members of both parties will have the capital, momentum, or interest to play with an AWB, when as Cosmoline, MS_Dragon and others have said, trying to meet payroll will end up eating so much of the Congress's time and energy. Plus, as the year goes on, Berry will increasingly move into lame duck territory where he will have a hard time proposing or pushing along any sort of bill at all, barring routine housekeeping stuff.

leadchucker
January 2, 2013, 08:27 PM
The Democrats could conceivable control both houses, and of course the white house, in 2014, and they will, if the media has anything to do with it. Just like in '94.

Take this threat seriously.

GEM
January 2, 2013, 08:28 PM
Given the GOP battle over joining the Democrats on the fiscal cliff bills - which may have been a true emergency (sigh) - I can't see them doing that again for the AWB. That would truly antagonize their base for no real outcome.

kayakersteve
January 2, 2013, 08:50 PM
I think the dems will propose a very strict AWB, but by the time it becomes law, it will be very similar to 94 ban. Only exception I see is no sunset clause this time.

ChCx2744
January 2, 2013, 08:51 PM
I don't really care about the guns or the mags, I just don't want anything to happen to ammo prices or nonavailability :(

bds
January 2, 2013, 08:55 PM
As public/lawmakers' priorities shift to more pressing fiscal concerns, support for AWB may likely wane. As Obama already stated, any new AWB will require significant public support. As this article indicates (http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/poll-obama-begins-second-term-facing-pessimistic-public-132253142--election.html;_ylt=ArWKdhLhqU.wQOH6yYTvBrCs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTNsdGdubGNsBG1pdANNaWdyYXRlZCBmcm9tIE1lZGlhSENNQ29uZmlnIC0gSENNT0wgb24gYXJ0aWNsZSByaWdodCByYWlsBHBrZwNpZC0yOTUxNjA0BHBvcwMyBHNlYwNNZWRpYUJDYXJvdXNlbE1peGVkSENNBHZlcgMxMg--;_ylg=X3oDMTFpNzk0NjhtBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3), Obama is facing a public that is growing more pessimistic and weary on the start of his second term. By the time lawmakers address the second fiscal cliff and the public agonizes over tax returns in April, the pessimistic and weary sentiment may grow even more.
As President Barack Obama heads into his second term, he faces a pessimistic and weary public, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll released late Tuesday.

The percentage of Americans satisfied with the direction of the country stands at a paltry 23 percent in a poll taken Dec. 14-17. By a margin of 50 to 47 percent, respondents said the country's best years are over.

Fifty percent of respondents said it is somewhat or very unlikely that today's youth will have a better life than their parents.

That pessimism and negativity extends to the president, according to the poll.

Stevie-Ray
January 2, 2013, 08:56 PM
I don't know how extensive it will be, but I firmly believe feel-good legislation is in the offing. Just as last time, it will obviously do no good, but I also don't believe there will be a sunset date this time. I fear repubs will cave for at least some of it.:mad:

Everything had better be grandfathered.

Hokkmike
January 2, 2013, 09:44 PM
I refuse to offer the suggestion that an AWB is acceptable by voting "yes" in the poll although I think some politicians have but themselves in a position where they must do something to save face.

USgunguy
January 2, 2013, 11:43 PM
I believe our vulnerability to losing the 2nd amendment continues to rise with every generation. This occurs because we are quickly becoming a nation that does not value principles over our individual opinions in unique situations. Whenever the lengthy conversations about gun control measures arise you hear far more about what will work and what will not work than you hear about the principles behind the 2nd amendment. To me standing for a principle means supporting it when it hurts you just as strongly as when it helps you. You do that based on the big picture and not the flavor of the day.....more importantly because you are a man of principles.

For instance, we should support people's rights to burn a flag or build a Mosque. Not because we like it, but because of the principles of free speech, peaceful assembly, and freedom of religion are far to valuable to compromise them even when we desperately want to. Now granted the ACLU will not support us on the grounds of principle or the 2nd amendment, but we need to be clear that this is our position.

I believe our constitution and the Bill of Rights (not needs) were inspired by God and they should be defending accordingly. Yep...I'm too old to play the politically correct garbage. I don't get out of the shower to pee either.

So when you read in our postings, "I'm not worried about Mags I have plenty" or "All I am worried about is ammo restrictions and prices...I have plenty of guns & mags" we are clearly not dealing with men of principle.

Let's hang tough on the principles, and remember all of our rights are worth fighting for. The second amendment just ensures we have the means to fight tyranny in all forms.

Bobson
January 2, 2013, 11:52 PM
I'm really surprised by the difference between options 2 and 3, as far as the number of votes. I've never met anyone who believed high cap mags should be banned but "assault weapons" shouldn't. In other words, everyone I know is either full anti, or full support [for gun rights]. I believe our elected representatives are the same - all or none.

That being said, I'm convinced a new ban will be signed into law. Both weapons and high cap mags, until the bill expires. Is it gonna be ten years again?

Bobson
January 2, 2013, 11:56 PM
I refuse to offer the suggestion that an AWB is acceptable by voting "yes" in the poll although I think some politicians have but themselves in a position where they must do something to save face.
Stating that I believe a ban will be imposed is absolutely not an indicator that I believe a ban should be imposed. I don't know anyone who's more adamantly opposed to a future ban than I am; but I fully expect it to happen.

BlueBronco
January 3, 2013, 12:09 AM
The gun ban wing nuts lead by Feinstein can try for the whole enchilada, but if they end up with a compromise, it is a win for them. That is even if it is high cap mags (what ever that is). However, they have tipped their hands once again. Just like in the 80s. They really are after bans and confiscation. Feinstein, Bloomberg, Cuomo, BHO have shown their wishes.

CoRoMo
January 3, 2013, 02:29 PM
I don't really care about the guns or the mags, I just don't want anything to happen to ammo...
sigh

cfullgraf
January 3, 2013, 03:26 PM
You know, if the nut-jobs are not stopped from going postal every couple months, a new gun ban will be imminent.

The news media will not let it die and negative opinions on guns will rise exponentially.

At that point, we will heard about as well as yelling while the tornado passes overhead.

cfullgraf
January 3, 2013, 03:27 PM
Deleted, double post

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