Assault Weapons Ban will FAIL - Proof


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LTJG
January 6, 2013, 01:27 PM
How one would defeat an upcoming Gun Control Ban

There are 435 seats in the house this year and the Republican Party took a little hit this election losing 8 seats to the Democrats. Nevertheless, the Republican Party still holds a relatively comfortable majority of the house.
Here is a breakdown from this election:

Party As of November 2012 /After the 2012 Election
Democratic 193/ 201
Republican 242/ 234
Total 435/ 435

With this said, with a controversial and heated topic such as gun control there can be lost votes on both side of the party line so Gun Rights advocates cant assume that they are safe just because they have more than 218 Republican seats. The reason for this is because of swing seats.

Safe Democrat Held Seats (more than 56% total votes)[2010]: 127
Safe Republican Held Seats (more than 56% total votes)[2010]: 186
Tossup Races (won with less than 56% total votes)[2010]: 122
Total 435

New York Times Political Report Race Rating -- U.S. House Competitive Districts July, 2012

Solid D 156
Lean D 23
Tossup 25
Lean R 32
Solid R 199

Looking at the above graphs there are a number of swing seats to take in consideration. The top graph is from the US Census Bureau Data from 2010 and shows all races where the seats are held or are within a 56% tolerance. The second graph is from 2012 and from the New York Times, showing pre-2012 election swing seats. The total number of seats in play is what will win or defeat any new Gun Control bill.

Congressmen in swing seats are more willing to vote across party lines as they need to try and win over a large portion of their constituency that did not vote for them, while at the same time they do not want to alienate their party base as for them every vote really counts. We can assume that all solid Democrats will vote Pro-Gun Control and all Republicans will vote Pro-Gun Rights, although a few will cross party lines. This is good news for Republicans as they have around 40 more Safe Seats than Democrats, however not enough to secure a sure win on any party-aligned bill. Bottom line, the middle will play a very big role in this vote.

Plan of Action: Write every Congressman from your state in the below list of Tossup Races, both Republican and Democrat. Express your views as a resident of your home state.

Close Races in 2010 - (Congressional District, Democrat %, Republican %)

Alabama
..2d 49 51
Alaska
Arizona
..1st 44 50
..3d 41 52
..5th 43 52
..7th 50 44
..8th 49 47
Arkansas
..1st 43 52
California
..3d 43 50
..11th 48 47
..20th 52 48
..26th 37 54
..44th 44 56
..45th 42 51
..47th 53 39
Colorado
..3d 46 50
..4th 41 52
..7th 53 42
Connecticut
..4th 51 47
..5th 52 45
Delaware
Florida
..2d 41 54
..12th 41 48
..22d 46 54
..25th 43 52
Georgia
..2d 51 49
..8th 47 53
Hawaii
..1st 53 47
Idaho
..1st 41 51
Illinois
..8th 48 48
..10th 49 51
..14th 45 51
..17th 43 53
Indiana
..2d 48 47
..9th 42 52
Iowa
..1st 50 48
..2d 51 46
..3d 51 46
Kansas
Kentucky
..3d 55 44
..6th 50 50
Louisiana \3
Maine
..2d 55 45
Maryland
..1st 42 54
Massachusetts
..4th 54 43
..5th 55 42
..10th 47 42
Michigan
..1st 41 52
..5th 53 44
..7th 45 50
..9th 50 47
Minnesota
..1st 49 44
..6th 40 53
..7th 55 38
..8th 47 48
Mississippi
..1st 41 55
..4th 47 52
Missouri
..3d 49 47
..4th 45 50
..5th 53 44
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
..3d 47 48
New Hampshire
..1st 42 54
..2d 47 48
New Jersey
..3d 47 50
..6th 55 44
..12th 53 46
New Mexico
..1st 52 48
..2d 45 55
New York
..1st 49 39
..2d 54 34
..4th 54 39
..13th 46 42
..19th 46 41
..20th 44 45
..22d 51 39
..23d 45 40
..24th 45 43
..25th 48 38
..29th 0 44
North Carolina
..2d 49 49
..7th 54 46
..8th 53 44
..11th 54 46
..13th 55 45
North Dakota
45 55
Ohio
..1st 46 51
..6th 45 50
..10th 53 44
..12th 41 56
..13th 56 44
..15th 41 54
..16th 41 52
..17th 54 30
..18th 40 54
Oklahoma
Oregon
..1st 55 42
..4th 54 44
..5th 51 46
Pennsylvania
..3d 44 56
..4th 51 49
..7th 44 55
..8th 46 54
..10th 45 55
..11th 45 55
..12th 51 49
..15th 39 54
..17th 56 44
Rhode Island
..1st 51 44
South Carolina
..2d 44 53
..5th 45 55
South Dakota
46 48
Tennessee
Texas
..15th 56 42
..23d 44 49
..25th 53 45
..27th 47 48
Utah
..2d 50 46
Vermont
Virginia
..2d 42 53
..5th 47 51
..9th 46 51
..11th 49 49
Washington
..2d 51 49
..3d 47 53
..8th 48 52
..9th 55 45
West Virginia
..1st 50 50
Wisconsin
..3d 50 46
..7th 44 52
..8th 45 55
Wyoming

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Killian
January 6, 2013, 01:48 PM
My test is simpler. I assume all Democrats will vote on the party line. Most will. A pitiful few might not (or might ). In the House there are 233 Republicans. 200 Democrats. I assume all Democrats will. Now I have to locate the Republicans who might jump the party line. Peter King is a definite to move over. He's already said he will. To get to 218 for a majority, that means Democrats now need 17 other Republicans. Chaffetz of Utah says he is open to gun control. 16 now needed.

I also know there are a LOT of dissatisfied Republicans right now. Many from Northeast states where issues like lower taxes may rank higher on the list of importance than gun rights. So I by no means think gun control is going to fail. I think it stands an all to uncomfortably close chance of passing.

LTJG
January 6, 2013, 01:54 PM
I dont know about that. I think you might see a few Democrats cross over. You mentioned 2 Republicans whom we've lost already, it just means we need to push some Dems over to our side.

It all depends what actually goes to the floor. Look what happened in Illinois - the bill was so broad and sweeping against Gun Owners that it failed shortly after committee.

hso
January 6, 2013, 06:05 PM
I assume all Democrats will vote on the party line.

That's unrealistic considering the differences across the nation with strong 2A support in much of the SE.

It is also defeatist considering that we can not preserve our sport and the 2A if we don't get bipartisan support from Reps and Senators to stave off this attack on RKBA.

hso
January 6, 2013, 06:05 PM
I assume all Democrats will vote on the party line.

That's unrealistic considering the differences across the nation with strong 2A support in much of the SE.

It is also defeatist considering that we can not preserve our sport and the 2A if we don't get bipartisan support from Reps and Senators to stave off this attack on RKBA.

Buzzard II
January 6, 2013, 08:16 PM
It ain't over till the fat lady sings, and I ain't heard no singin'!

xXxplosive
January 6, 2013, 08:21 PM
These are the times that try men's souls............

Armchair Warrior
January 6, 2013, 08:38 PM
Obama was reelected so you know anything is possible. Things that are neither constitutional nor legal are occurring and they are getting away with it so DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN and assume that it can't happen.

ol' scratch
January 6, 2013, 08:44 PM
It ain't over till the fat lady sings, and I ain't heard no singin'!
Yeah, Rosie O'Donnell has kept her mouth basically shut. We have just had to listen to a fat British guy.

Randall53
January 6, 2013, 08:57 PM
It's no secret that right now there is way too much emotion in Washington and across the country for these types of bills to be voted on. HOWEVER, this is exactly why the Libs and their anointed one are trying so hard to rush these gun control bills through before the emotion subsides. They've said as much several times in the past few days. I heard today that one Republican Senator said that other issues are in front of gun control in importance and stated particularly spending/taxation and jobs/economy. Don't remember who it was though.

Biden is being his usual brazen, Brash stupid A$$ed self and is gonna try to get it done so maybe he'll get to spit shine Obama's Butt afterwards for a reward.

I just wonder what the NRA is really doing? I've been a member for years and years and have thought recently about springing for a life membership, but I don't know what they are gonna be able to do. According to the news, the White House "is developing strategies to work around the National Rifle Association (NRA), the powerful gun lobby."
I'm just hoping that there are enough people in the house that have enough freak'n sense to know this ain't gonna work, and is not going to go over well with law abiding gun owning citizens.

mljdeckard
January 6, 2013, 09:06 PM
No reps from Utah, including Chaffetz will vote yes. When Chaffetz says he is willing to talk, he is sharpening his teeth with a file. That's like Doc Holiday saying he wants to ply a game with you. Even Matheson (D) won't support it, he knows that the only reason he narrowly beat out his opponent is because of issues like this one. You cannot assume all dems will vote party line.

I was called out last night, so I did some homework. In 2009, 65 dem congressmen signed a letter to the AG saying that they wouldn't support new gun laws. 48 of those seats have changed hands. (That means 17 of them are still in office.) Of the 48 that left, only 6 were replaced by other dems, the rest have flipped republican.

Meaning, the dems lost the house in '94 because of a gun bill, and when they re-took the house, they wanted to make clear from the beginning that they wanted nothing to do with gun control. Then they LOST it again, and didn't re-take it in 2012. They don't want this bill, and didn't when they HAD the chance to pass it. If they were earnest, they could have crammed it through in 2009 using VA tech as the rationale. Just because Feinstein et al want it and get three senators to say they are willing to discuss it doesn't mean it's any more likely than it was a month ago.

OilyPablo
January 6, 2013, 09:45 PM
I think the longer the vote is held off the better chance of level headed people making decisions.

How will Harry Reid in the Senate vote?

mljdeckard
January 6, 2013, 09:54 PM
Harry Reid is critical here. He's not just a senator, he's the majority leader. He controls the agenda. He can say that he won't even bring the bill up.

I truly despise him. I have dreamed of his being ended by a random falling piano. However, as far as I know, he is solidly pro gun. He has kept a strong rating from the NRA. The question is, will he bring it fir a vote to appease his dem establishment even if he plans to oppose the legislation? I THINK, it will depend on how strong it feels. If it doesn't look like an easy win, he won't even bring it up for a vote.

armsmaster270
January 6, 2013, 10:05 PM
Yes I did send a letter. Unfortunatly mine is Fienstien and she politly told me to f off she knows what is good for me.

mljdeckard
January 6, 2013, 10:14 PM
Seriously, if mine was Feinstein, I wouldn't bother.

Dr_B
January 6, 2013, 10:15 PM
Things that are neither constitutional nor legal are occurring and they are getting away with it so DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN and assume that it can't happen.

The quote above sums it up in one sense: Don't let you guard down.

You people who are assuming this legislation has no chance of passing need to WAKE UP! The people on Obama's committee are not screwing around. These people would be perfectly happy sending a police officer into your home and simply taking your firearms. If they felt like they had a solid backing from the public and it wouldn't cost them an election or seats in congress, they would take your guns right now. If there weren't some laws standing in their way, they would take your guns right now.

The people on this committee are cunning and if the public and our representatives don't pay attention they will get away with it.

gearchecker
January 6, 2013, 10:15 PM
You might as well give up the fight now.

If it doesn't pass in the house and the congress, Obama will pass this thru with his power of executive order.
There's no ifs, and's, or butts about it, he's going to do everything in his powers to get his way on this one.

It looks like we're going to lose, and the anti-gunners get another win, especially since we're no longer allowed to speak our voice to argue against the power grabbing.

We've become the sheep, and the other side is now the lion in this argument.
I'll see you at the gun registration booth I guess.

What a sad state of affairs where those of us in the right are accused that we're wrong, and we can't defend ourselves any more.

Gun rights? Sorry, they're nothing more than old out of date history!

mljdeckard
January 6, 2013, 10:22 PM
There are MANY ifs, ands, and buts about it. He can't just make any executive order he wants to.Stop saying this.

It most certainly does NOT look like we're going to lose. This fight is psychological, and you are falling for it. Stop. This is the political equivalent of crying in battle the first time you hear a gunshot. The only thing putting us in danger right now is guys like YOU admitting defeat before the battle is started. Stop. Count all the way to ten. Conglomerate your feces, and for Browning's sake. STOP PANICKING.

kmrcstintn
January 6, 2013, 10:28 PM
there is a new post in here about a New York state propsed assault weapons ban that is eerily similar in language to what the federal ban wants to do; so even if an AWB doesn't pass at the federal level, each state has the ability (and many have the motive) to institute their own AWB's within the confines of their prospective borders...

bubbameat
January 6, 2013, 10:29 PM
You might as well give up the fight now.

Apathy, we WILL lose with this sentiment and if folks do nothing if they feel they do not have a chance.

mokin
January 6, 2013, 10:36 PM
I hope the OP is correct. Whatever the reasoning/logic. I've e-mailed my representatives a couple of times and plan on doing it some more. It at least makes me feel like I've done something--better than watching the votes be tallied against me like I did 94. That sucked!

We've temporarily set them back in Illinois and the anti-gun politicians know what an issue this is. We need to keep pressure on them.

gearchecker
January 6, 2013, 10:54 PM
If you think I'm caving, you're dead wrong, and you didn't see the sarcasm in my comments.
Read between the lines. This is highly political, and we're not allowed to be political any longe, for fear of offending somebody. On this issue they're really offending me this time.

I'm so sick of being pushed around by the few that think they have the power to force their will upon us. I want this insanity stopped more than most here.

I used to live in Michigan, a gun control state, and now I'm living in a place where I discovered that I really do have the right, and the power, to own my guns without the government telling me they must be registered or controlled.
I lived where it was illegal for one person to loan another person his handgun, even just to go out for target shooting, without an approval form issued by the local police department. I had to have permission to give a gun as a gift, or sell it to another person and it had to be "Registered" in the new owners name. For me to give my guns to my daughter in Michigan where she still lives, every single gun I want her to have will be held under some law governing that transfer, and some of them can't be because they're illegal there. I believe in the right to be able to move my guns from location A to location B without being under the scrutiny of the law.
I believe that I should have the right to carry my legally owned handgun with me everywhere I go, without any restrictions what so ever.
Because of the "Laws" in one particular state, I must drive nearly 500 miles out of my way to avoid risking the chance of being stopped with my legally allowed handgun, because their laws forbid me to possess it. I now ship my guns to myself in advance of travelling across this country, because of the fear that my plane may be diverted and there might be the possibliity of my gaining possession in a gun controlled state like New York, New Jersey, or, God forbid Washington DC.
I've been stopped from speaking the truth about my Constitutional rights being challenged, and most probably being taken from me in the very near future.

How much longer will it take before we are declared the criminal?
If we can't discuss these things openly, we're setting ourselves up to have our rights stripped away and destroyed right in front of our eyes. And, there will be nothing we can do about it, simply because we pushed against the winds of change and decided to fight for what God gave us, and no man should ever have the power to take away.

Regards,
Gearchecker

Sheepdog1968
January 6, 2013, 10:56 PM
They are Feinstein Boxer and Pelosi. Needless to say, won't help in my case.

bowserb
January 7, 2013, 08:17 AM
To the OP: Excellent analysis. The one thing that fails here is that the Republicans in congress have of late demonstrated weakness under pressure, and you can be certain the left will be pressing their point with senators and congressmen, both publicly and privately. That's why we need to keep up the pressure as well. Write your senators. Electronic contact is good, but if you can spring for postage, paper mail has greater impact these days.

Also, we have to say again, if you are an NRA member, good for you. Send $25 to NRA-ILA today. If you are not a member of NRA, it's not too late. Join today, AND send $25 to NRA-ILA. In DC! The loudest lobbyist wins. We need to help our lobby crank up the volume.


Sent using Tapatalk...so please excuse the typos!

XD 45acp
January 7, 2013, 08:52 AM
I can tell you there is Traitors in the ranks. Mark Warner (D) va, had an A grade with the NRA. He has already been on tv saying he would support ban. Tim Kaine (D) Va, has never been a gun friend. So I can tell you what the 2 senators from Va will vote... Even if you write them, you get a lame reply like " Thanks for your input, but we cant stand and do nothing while kids die. So I'm doing it anyway. Thanks for your thoughts".

beatledog7
January 7, 2013, 09:28 AM
I think the longer the vote is held off the better chance of level headed people making decisions.

This is nearly always the case. When the masses cry out for government to do something, and government responds by doing something, it usually makes things worse. The best course of action for government to take when the people desperately want it to act and act quickly is nearly always the same: none.

Market forces and cultural pressure don't kick in overnight, but they do kick in. We're just too accustomed to having our desires met instantly to be willing to wait for things to balance out naturally.

SlamFire1
January 7, 2013, 09:40 AM
I am going to remind my Congressmen that I won't forget his vote come next election cycle.

VA27
January 8, 2013, 09:31 PM
I wonder if putting pressure on the fence sitters might help. Not just in your own state, but EVERY state. Something along the lines of, if you vote the wrong way on this, I'll take a vacation in your state, say around election time. Maybe knock on a few doors, stuff some envelopes or man a phone bank, FOR YOUR OPPONENT.

American Finn
January 8, 2013, 09:34 PM
Hey Gearchecker-

I used to live in Michigan as well (Detroit area) and know where you are coming from. I now live in the great state of South Dakota, where we are free.

Quick question to all of you: where can you go to find the data on who, what, when, and where gun crimes (murders) are taking place, and who are the victims? Something leads me to believe that the vast majority of murders that take place in this country are in big cities, mainly criminals (gangs, druggies, criminal activity) killing each other, and in Democrat controlled areas (Chicago anyone)?

According to what Feinstein, Schumer, and others say, just the mere presence of guns cause people "to kill each other" in huge numbers. Funny, but the state I live in is well armed and we have practically no crime. Does anyone else see the correlation?

sdhunter
January 8, 2013, 10:18 PM
Its just hard to beat south dakota people huh finn lol, we will hold the door at the grocery store for you but if you come into our home unwelcomed, you will probably be staring down the business end of a firearm lol.

goon
January 8, 2013, 10:59 PM
I agree with Gearchecker - we have to continue speaking out and publicly saying that enough is enough.
Joshua Boston had the courage to write a letter saying what is and is not acceptable to him as a citizen, sign it with his own name, and interview on national TV about his letter.
We should all have the courage to do the same.
We can't let this become a taboo subject or be afraid to exercise our First Amendment rights.

dcarch
January 9, 2013, 12:48 AM
Gentlemen, this is the time that we must all act as one. We can't afford to break into factions or argue. We must make our voices heard, and inform our representatives that we WILL NOT disarm. Period. I feel as though this is appropriate, given the situation:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MD3DdskaPhs

mljdeckard
January 9, 2013, 01:07 AM
I don't have a problem with everyone being active and upping the effort. What I have a problem with is people using language that indicates we have already lost.

C0untZer0
January 9, 2013, 03:23 AM
Did George Will and Dick Morris predict that the AWB will be defeated?

mljdeckard
January 9, 2013, 03:50 AM
Did Piers Morgan say it wouldn't?

bowserb
January 9, 2013, 07:38 AM
I wonder if our elected representatives know how many of the wackos who do mass murders, are the result of behavior-altering drugs when they were young children and such drugs were so popular with parents who wanted an easy way to deal with their kids' problems.

I also wonder if those in power are aware that more people are killed in the US each year with blunt objects than with rifles of all kinds--including those that some want to call "assault weapons".

I also wonder if they know that in countries that have banned and confiscated/bought-back guns, that violent crimes have increased, even though so-called gun crimes may have been reduced ever so slightly. Australia being an exception, both overall violent crimes and gun crimes increased after the ban.

Finally, I hope our elected officials know that their vote for useless and harmful new gun legislation will start many people to work now on replacing them at the next opportunity.

My two senators and congressman know all of the above, because I sent it to them in a letter--yes, one of those old-time paper things in an envelope with a stamp. They also know because I called their offices to tell them I had sent letters with that info. And two of the three know because I sent the online email form. The third, Ted Cruz, is a new senator and doesn't have his contact form set up yet, but even he got the letter and call.

And another $25 to NRA-ILA.

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