When are ammo prices and supply expected to get more normal


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bushmaster1313
January 12, 2013, 10:34 PM
In December I bought four boxes of Federal American Eagle .357 Magnum ammo for about $20.50 per box. I should have bought a case.

When are ammo prices and supply expected to get back to a steady state equilibrium?

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HorseSoldier
January 12, 2013, 10:52 PM
I wouldn't expect anything to change at least until the administration announces their actual intended course of action and then people get a look at what Congressional response is going to be. Given that there are other things going on as well, like their postponement of the fiscal cliff stuff, it would not surprise me if things are unresolved for another few months.

Arp32
January 12, 2013, 10:57 PM
We all decided to go back to the normal prices next Thursday.

Arp32
January 12, 2013, 10:58 PM
(It was too easy...)

bushmaster1313
January 12, 2013, 10:59 PM
We all decided to go back to the normal prices next Thursday.

That is really funny!

bushmaster1313
January 12, 2013, 11:00 PM
I guess my real question is: what is the minimum time to get back to normal given the current backlog.

The actual time could be much longer

Arp32
January 12, 2013, 11:01 PM
Glad you have a sense of humor!

OilyPablo
January 12, 2013, 11:02 PM
It's a bit like the stock market and an unsettled business climate - the market hates instability. No one really knows exactly what the outcome will be, so the cycle begins - and apparently the supply chain has no ability to keep up.

My guess the earliest possible stabilization will be March. Maybe summer.

jim243
January 12, 2013, 11:08 PM
You won't have to wait till thursday, they will be starting their pre-pre-pre Christmas sales Monday with all the stuff they did not sell last Christmas. (LOL)

Jim

Impureclient
January 12, 2013, 11:09 PM
Where was the poll for the Thursday vote? Whatever, I'm just glad things will be back to normal.

Arp32
January 12, 2013, 11:11 PM
I'd say part of what makes this unknowable is that we are seeing new demand based on fear, and it's not easy to quantify that.

When they had the Cash for Clunkers program, they said it just moved future demand into the present. I'd guess some of that is happening now, but probably more of what's going on is guys like us buying things we might not have otherwise just because we're afraid it won't be there for long. You can't really look at historical trends to quantify how deep this demand is.

wrs840
January 12, 2013, 11:18 PM
The last big shortage (2009) took about six months to play out, IIRC.

Jenrick
January 12, 2013, 11:19 PM
I'd honestly give it no more then 30 days more, unless something major changes. Beyond that point, people are going to be either stocked up, or out of money. Either way the buying frenzy will have slowed down, give it maybe another month for production to catch up. So IMO two months from now things should be normalizing unless something major changes.

Edited to add: The last big shortage caught suppliers by surprise big time, and they had never had to ramp up for that level of demand. This one was wasn't quiet as big a surprise, and manufactures have been better able to meet production demand.

-Jenrick

MaterDei
January 12, 2013, 11:23 PM
It's the new normal.

gspn
January 12, 2013, 11:34 PM
This is a fear cycle...good luck calling when it will end.

The first issue you have is many thousand new gun owners...and they all want ammo to go with their guns. Those buyers alone could have drained all the ammo from the shelves...just buying a normal amount of ammo to go with their new guns.

Next throw in the panicking hoards who feel they need to stockpile ammo...good luck calling when that might taper off. I really don't even know why they feel the need make panic ammo purchases to begin with.

I can certainly understand buying things now that might get banned...and items high on that list would appear to be magazines that hold more than 10 rounds and many types of semi-auto rifles. If you've always wanted one or if you want multiples to keep in the safe...I get it...it makes great sense to buy them now to be sure you can have them.

Ammo on the other hand...no clue what has caused the panic...I don't know of anyone in DC trying to ban ammunition. Crowd mentality I guess...one one sheep sees another run...they all start to run...the history of "markets" is full of stories like this. Once the crowd starts running for the door...nobody wants to be the last one out.

Sooner or later people will run out of fear, money, and credit and the supply chain will catch up. I'm not sure that prices will come all the way down to pre-panic levels though. If I was a manufacturer I'd bring them down slowly to try to find the "new" equilibrium level.

If I had to guess...and this is just one guys guess...things will look more like "normal" sometime in late 2013.

hso
January 12, 2013, 11:36 PM
No one knows.

bushmaster1313
January 12, 2013, 11:41 PM
Beyond that point, people are going to be either stocked up, or out of money.

The problem is that there is not enough stock to stock up.

gspn
January 12, 2013, 11:41 PM
No one knows.
Chuck Norris knows...

JohnnyK
January 12, 2013, 11:43 PM
the worst I've seen with ammo 7.62 x 39 back ordered... expected due Sept 2013... wow... look online... everybody is wiped out... all the cheap stuff... gone...

Killian
January 12, 2013, 11:47 PM
A lot of ammo comes from overseas. I think that will be no longer an option for importation. So my guess on when ammo prices will go back to "previous conditions" aka "normal", then my answer would be...never. Or not anytime soon at any rate.

quicherbichen
January 13, 2013, 12:16 AM
I picked up a case of tula 7.62x39 just today for $299. Was completely shocked to see it though. After talking to an employee he said 4 cases were buried under some bird shot. They were uncovered an hour before I got there and I got the last one.

Ignition Override
January 13, 2013, 12:20 AM
There were many boxes at the gun show today, at 1:00 PM. Sales did not look any hotter than normal. Maybe few regular customers are willing to buy at these prices.

Are most people waiting for the 'price bubble' to deflate? I refuse to pay .85-.90/rd. for Prvi .303, but with 3,000 rds. (mostly cordite surplus),
you can afford to wait.

wrs840: In July '09 a seller in Keene, NH had over 40,000 rds. of Russian 7.62x39 on Gunbroker, all at the same time. Some of us counted at least that much.

OilyPablo
January 13, 2013, 12:44 AM
.45ACP is through the roof. That doesn't make any sense at all even compared to the total hysteria the last 25 days or so. That's when you really know it's a market gone amuck.

In the sea of craziness, Quantico steps forward and say they will not further mark up their PMAG's. Last ones I bought from them were $10 each. Yes, I know he didn't have any. I did immediately buy an OD STR buttstock from them, so I guess his tact worked on me.

Contrast them to guys across the aisle from them at the show. They had a huge jobsite tool locker, say 48X24x24 or so full of PMAG's and they were selling them for $60 each. They had some few buyers - mostly guys with new guns and needed a mag. Most people were just shaking their heads......

mgmorden
January 13, 2013, 12:56 AM
Probably a few months more. Could be longer - could be shorter. It'll calm down eventually though. The high prices and shortages are being fueled by rampant buying, but the public can't afford to keep buying at the rate they're currently doing forever. Eventually people have enough to last them or they run out of disposable income.

DammitBoy
January 13, 2013, 01:00 AM
6-8 months until the next shooting/panic/whitehouse decree starts it all over again. The gun show I was at today was a mad house.

There was a 1 hour wait just to get in the door all day long. Double the normal size crowd easily.

Fishslayer
January 13, 2013, 01:05 AM
.45ACP is through the roof. That doesn't make any sense at all even compared to the total hysteria the last 25 days or so. That's when you really know it's a market gone amuck.


My range's pistol cases are wiped slick of 1911s, glocks, etc.:confused:

I do think they have one or two left in .45GAP. Guess the panic's not bad enough yet.:evil:

JohnsXDM
January 13, 2013, 01:42 AM
I was at my LGS on Thursday to see the gunsmith. The pistol cases were full and they even had some of those "evil looking black rifles" there. Te ammo shelves were basicly empty except for .45ACP! Lots of that in stock. They have a 24 position indoor range and it was filled with people waiting. We have a family membership there so the wife went to make reservations for this weekend,,,,,,all booked already! No ammo on the shelves but people are there shooting anyway. Me personally, I roll my own and have got a few thousand rounds for the range ready to go.

Hacker15E
January 13, 2013, 06:45 AM
After the 2008 election -- when there wasn't even specific firearms legislation proposed, nor was there any specific media coverage of anything proposed -- it took a year for ammunition supply chains to catch up and for prices to (somewhat) come back to pre-panic levels.

As this time around we have the 'perfect storm' of Mr Obama's re-election and the waves of proposed legislation, regardless of how the actual votes on that legislation I believe it will, again, be a year before things get back to 'normal'.

Killian
January 13, 2013, 09:19 AM
The high prices and shortages are being fueled by rampant buying, but the public can't afford to keep buying at the rate they're currently doing forever.

Theoretically true...but that hasn't seemed to happen with products like gasoline. Also I think it is a factor of "what is available". If hi cap mags are banned, and no one wants to give up theirs because they want them for their own rifles and pistols, then the only way to induce them to do so is to offer them a lot of money for what they have.

wow6599
January 13, 2013, 09:30 AM
I wish I still had a .40; that stuff is everywhere.

pa350z
January 13, 2013, 10:12 AM
For me... I am just sitting on the sidelines watching this spectacle. After 2008, I started making small investments in ammo. For instance, everytime I visited Walmart, Dicks, Sports Authority, LGS, I made it a habit to pick up a box of ammo. Every time I would go to the range, I would replace what I shot on the away home. As far as the AR issue, when everything died down last time, I picked up two years ago a S&W MP15 on Davidson's Gun website. $800 with a rebate!! So... my advice is to wait this out, prices will return to somewhat normal and begin to slowly add to your collection. I don't get caught up in these frenzy's. I even remember during the AWB, that magazines were not that hard to find and were not that relatively expensive. All IMHO.

targetshooter22
January 13, 2013, 10:18 AM
Maybe buying will slow down when a bunch of folks need to make their second credit card payment in February and realize taxes are right around the corner too. It doesn't seem like buying on this scale can continue for too long. Back in 2009 I thought there was a really big federal order, and that greatly contributed to both the severity and duration of the issue.

LaVere
January 13, 2013, 10:28 AM
I was still fuming over the last ammo shortage. Now we have an other one. I was taking a second defensive shooting class. Suddenly little or no ammo. Stand corrected some was available at a very high price. I had said to myself never again.
When supply and prices returned to normal. Or when there was a sale. I would buy two to four extra boxes for storage. Slowly my reserves built up. I don't care to say what or where it is. But it's what I could afford to buy at that time.
Just this month I noticed Duh slap on forehead duh. Ammo supply dried up again. I stopped shooting all self defense ammo. Ie .223: 45: .40. 9mm. Went back to.22 only for now.

Last year I bought a .22 adapter for the ar. And I have an .22 target pistol. Surprising I enjoy shooting .22 alot. Just two month ago one of the online stores. Had a sale $4.00 off a big box. 375 count. So I bought 6 boxed. So I'm all set. Well for awhile any way.


I hope that enough people have learned there lesson. About our 2nd amend.

This will never come up again.

Wildbillz
January 13, 2013, 10:40 AM
The buying frenzy will go for about three to four months. As long as there is no legislation or another mass shooting of some sort. The dealers having gotten use to the high prices will hold on for another month or two trying to get the most out of it before they have to start to ease the prices. Some will simply sit on their wears till the next big run up or in hopes of it as they have too much into the items to sell at a deep discount. Add another three to four months till the manufacturing can catch up and get product out to the distributers and then on to the retailers shelf/website. So we are looking at close to 1 year at a minumum.

Now that takes into account nothing being done to change the current laws or any other events that would affect the mindset of the gun/ammo buying populace. Each attempt at a ban or event will reset that clock and make stronger the pressure on supplies. It was only recently that I would have said we had just about recovered from the 08 rush. Now we are starting all over. The 08 one took all most four years to return to a normal (that may have not been the same as prior but it was a new normal). This one is worse than then the 08 on as there is the danger of a pending ban. So itís going to take longer to correct itself.

Or then I could be full of ***** and not know anything.

WB

Carne Frio
January 13, 2013, 12:44 PM
We have seen normal. I don't foresee going back to that.
I feel like we are entering into a period of civil strife and
rebellion.

Carpedium
January 13, 2013, 12:46 PM
I'd say prices are looking pretty good right now - based on what I shoot (even though i reload anyway).

http://www.freedommunitions.com/40-S-W-180-gr-RNFP-B-p/b40r180r-c1000.htm

22-rimfire
January 13, 2013, 01:06 PM
It will happen when people start buying one box of centerfire ammo rather than ten boxes. In other words, when people start buying what they need and consume whether that be one or ten.

Wolphmans Brother
January 13, 2013, 01:38 PM
Does anyone think that our DHS ordering over 1.2 Billion rounds of various calibres has anything to do with the current supply/demand issue? I also waited an hour to get into my local gunshow last week and I know people are buying like crazy too...but again, does anyone think that ammo companies like Federal who have a contract with the DHS for 450million .40sw or Remington who has a contract for 200million .223 rounds will effect how quickly some of these manufacturers can start re upping the supply?

sean326
January 13, 2013, 01:44 PM
Think about it from the manufacturers point of view. they are worried if they add shifts and buy raw material to increase production will they be sitting with warehouses full of ammo when the panic buying stops. I gotta believe also that those new folks who are buying to invest or stock pile may dump it when things calm down and they start adding up the credit cost for the minimum payment.

beatledog7
January 13, 2013, 01:54 PM
There is no normal price, only economic drivers of price.

Avenger29
January 13, 2013, 02:14 PM
When the panic buying stops.

I figure no sooner than 6 months.

Which really sucks for those of us who have never had enough money to really stockpile. I have a 1k reserve of .223 and 500rds reserve 9mm. I'm shooting lots of .22LR nowadays.

22-rimfire
January 13, 2013, 02:26 PM
I shoot a lot of 22 rimfire simply because I can't afford (maybe more like "want to afford") to shoot centerfire ammunition at the same pace. But even 22 ammunition is in short supply at many retailers these days. I have felt this way for many years and not simply during the last run on ammunition or the current one. But I do keep a very viable cache of all calibers that I shoot. I just can't blow away 500 rounds of centerfire ammunition and not feel it.

Avenger29
January 13, 2013, 02:31 PM
I just can't blow away 500 rounds of centerfire ammunition and not feel it.

Oh I can't either. The only time I shoot large quantities of centerfire is in a class or during a match (and most of the matches I go to are 100 rd or less deals)

alan
January 13, 2013, 05:06 PM
Perhaps when the makers and dealers get a clear message from their customers, saying the following:

We Are Not Going To Put Up With This Foolishness.

Avenger29
January 13, 2013, 05:16 PM
Alan how is it their fault that prices are crazy?

Killian
January 13, 2013, 07:45 PM
Wildbillz: Or then I could be full of ***** and not know anything.

Not knowing isn't a failing. It just means information isn't available. In a situation like this current business with the talk of a ban, it forces speculation on past similar experiences, current realities like the make-up of Congress and manufacturing capabilities of accessory and ammo suppliers in our nation, and discussion on the powers that the President has and doesn't have thru the use of things like executive orders. Until the dice are rolled and the President issues his executive order, we won't know what the provisions are. Until someone presents a bill before Congress, we won't know what it talks about. I'm hearing some hopeful noises right now from the media that essentially nothing is going to come of all this...but I'm not yet convinced that we aren't going to see some moves toward limitations of one type or another. They are pulling out all the stops. Might not have enough juice to get it done, but I'm not going to start celebrating til the bills are stopped, or the voting is done.

CountryUgly
January 13, 2013, 07:55 PM
I'm seeing alot of new buyer remorse around here. First it was a ban is coming, tons of folks cleared the shelves and the ones that missed that have been paying triple previous FMV prices then....... last week one of the Big LGS's got new stuff in and.... prices were still pre panic prices.... SMH.... some folks will never learn.... I don't really expect the current maddness to last more than a couple more weeks.... the insanity is already starting to subside around here....

Sebastian the Ibis
January 13, 2013, 08:19 PM
In December I bought four boxes of Federal American Eagle .357 Magnum ammo for about $20.50 per box. I should have bought a case.

When are ammo prices and supply expected to get back to a steady state equilibrium?

My Wally World had .357 in stock yesterday for apx. $23/box. They also had .380, .40 and .45. The prices on all of those were apx. $2 higher than average (or more likely were always that price but nobody bought them) but nothing too crazy.

9mm, .223 and 12ga of all things were completely sold out. I wanted to going shotgunning today, but would up playing with a UMP 45 and a .40 cal Mp5 instead since I had the ammo. Not a bad day at all.

DammitBoy
January 13, 2013, 09:19 PM
Perhaps when the makers and dealers get a clear message from their customers, saying the following:

We Are Not Going To Put Up With This Foolishness.

The clear message right now, from the customer, is "I'm panicking, please charge me double the normal price." I don't expect that to change anytime soon.

Individuals can be smart, the herd can be a fairly dumb thing.

PRM
January 14, 2013, 08:04 AM
Checked last night on-line, was looking for some bulk pack .22 LRs to plink with. Couldn't find any in stock. Also, no 38 Special, or .32 ACPs. A few were saying no back order and one had stopped ALL phone and internet sales.

shep854
January 14, 2013, 09:26 AM
When the panic buyers start running out of money and/or credit.
My budget's tight, so I'm not even looking.
Last night, I was at a Wal-Mart near a lower-income part of town, and the locker was empty, save some shotgun ammo.

Pismopal
January 14, 2013, 10:46 PM
As soon as we get some adults in the WH and congress...that is to say.."not soon".

sota
January 14, 2013, 11:05 PM
so should I be watching gunbroker, armslist, or some other site for the "whoopsie!" people selling off their overbuys?

:D

Avenger29
January 14, 2013, 11:59 PM
When the panic buyers start running out of money and/or credit.

Yep. I wonder how many people are toasting their personal finances just to get a rifle and some ammo?

OilyPablo
January 15, 2013, 08:03 AM
Look at the restock dates at Sportsman's Guide. :what:

Not to get all depressing and stuff.

Tcruse
January 15, 2013, 09:00 AM
One element of the shortage is all of the new gun owners that just purchased guns and are taking training classes and practice trips to the range. The Obama fear factor is a part that is driving new gun purchases, but there are other factors as well. Some of the recent public shooting events has convinced people that they need to become responsibile for their safety. The local ranges are at full or capacity and more than capacity at some.
Just based on a couple of observations of CCW classes qualification shooting, it appears that the people getting CCW are a fair cross section of the population. Maybe more women and younger couples than I would have expected. Also seems to be a larger number of 65+ couples.
So, the shortage solution will not happen until Federal, Winchester, and Remington double their production of new ammo. I suspect that the "normal" for ammo demand has changed. If the military gets out of some of the middle east conflict, maybe that will reduce demand, but I really do not think we will notice.

340PD
January 15, 2013, 09:23 AM
yesterday !!

Mayo
January 15, 2013, 09:26 AM
Should be any time now that NONE of the 19 EO's include a weapons or high capacity ban.

sleepyone
January 15, 2013, 09:28 AM
Chuck Norris knows...

That's it. 'Nuff said. Close the thread.

Ky Larry
January 15, 2013, 01:13 PM
The problem is that the panic won't end until people stop panicing. Even if all the shelves were suddenly stocked, people would strip them in minutes. This cycle would be repeated again and again until people "stocked up" to a level they felt comfortable with. I vowed I wouldn't get Obammanated again after the first time so the current sillyness hasn't affected me much. I'm sure there will be a lot more people like me now.

DammitBoy
January 15, 2013, 04:04 PM
so should I be watching gunbroker, armslist, or some other site for the "whoopsie!" people selling off their overbuys?

:D

You are going to have a looooong wait, at least three more years.

Armchair Warrior
January 15, 2013, 05:17 PM
Seems like large quantities have been out for weeks. Does not seem to be being restocked. Are shipments being re-routed by government or liberal billionaires?

bushmaster1313
January 15, 2013, 08:33 PM
The problem is that the panic won't end until people stop panicing.

How true

alan
January 16, 2013, 12:51 AM
I suspect that ammunition makers and at least some dealers are playing into what might be described as public wackiness. Of course, I could be wrong.

OilyPablo
January 16, 2013, 06:13 AM
So I keep hearing the shortage for ammo manufacturers (mainly .223) are bullets. Got brass, got powder, got primers........just zero bullets.

Confirm or deny?

OilyPablo
January 16, 2013, 07:33 AM
Nope - everyone is waiting, just like you. It's the waiting that's making everyone jumpy.

But why do you think the announcement will be any good? The head anti-constitutionalist will be surrounded by children, so it must be good.

Ryanxia
January 16, 2013, 10:18 AM
Between the panic buying and the government buying millions of rounds at a time it's probably going to be quite a while.

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