When will the run on the guns end?


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Preacher.
January 18, 2013, 03:54 AM
Obama gave his speech, and signed his EO, which didn't really do anything. Congress is not going to give him much help, so are we out of hot water as far as gun control proposals? When is the gun craze gonna slow down, so the average guy can afford an AR again? When will ammo NOT be backordered? When will gun stores go back to normal sales and not have the store being bombarded daily with people buying guns? When will it all calm down and go back to normal? Just curious, When the gun craze will go away, and we can go back to having our shelves stocked with ammo, and hi cap mags won't be on backorder. When will gun prices go back to normal, and not be inflated? When will it all calm down?

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Evergreen
January 18, 2013, 03:59 AM
IMO, After the storm passes and the AWB and all other of Hussein Obama's dirty political tricks are struck down.

Isaac-1
January 18, 2013, 05:14 AM
I have no idea, prices keep going up, ammo supply keeps going down. I was in Academy sporting goods today at about 2 pm on a Thursday, ammo selection was nearly non existant on all popular calibers of handgun and rifle ammo, the ONLY handgun ammo they had was for 45LC, I was a bit surprised at the selection of rifle ammo, with a little in .270, .308 and 30-06, otherwise it was lots of choice in the more obscure stuff, no 5.56,7,62x39, no .22 of ANY KIND, not even .22WRM, just a couple of boxes of .17HMR. Shotgun shells still had a good selection of bird and target shot, I think I saw 2 small boxes of 12 GA Zombie buck shot, no slugs, etc. There were also over a dozen people lined up at the counter filling out or waiting on NICS paperwork, remember this was just after 2PM on a THURSDAY. I bought a couple of boxes of target load shotgun shells to replenish my supply that I used up a couple of weeks ago and got out of there.

Halal Pork
January 18, 2013, 05:22 AM
Here's the problem. (Well, a problem at least.)

Say a new package of legislation to restrict Second Amendment rights is defeated in the House. (I'm knocking on wood as I type.) A short while after, prices start to come down as supply of firearms-related goods rises. "Well, I hope you hoarders and panic buyers learned your lesson," the grossly unprepared gun-owning Walmart shoppers will gloat. Back to business as usual, right? Wrong. The election campaigns of 2014 may very well start another run on guns, ammo, etc.

The more I think about what's going on right now, the more I think the aim behind it is to use this as an issue to try to take back the House in 2014. A final 2 years in office with both Houses of Congress under your thumb, a President could "secure his legacy" by ramming through darn near whatever he wants. My point is not to have some discussion of politics but rather to point out that even if things come back to some version of sanity the next supply crisis might be right around the corner.

Solo
January 18, 2013, 05:27 AM
If I didn't know better, I'd say the President owned stock in the firearms industry...

Baba Louie
January 18, 2013, 05:38 AM
No time soon I bet. Until the pols turn off the heat, expect things to be hot and stay warmish in this regards. Human nature.
New guns for new gun owners means new ammo sales as well.

I know a lot of recent sales are repeat and/or hardcores stocking up... but if you can imagine how many new gun owners joined the ranks once they knew the gov't intent of banning something they felt they need, and while it might be human nature to want ANYTHING prohibited, it does say a lot about our forefathers wisdom, human nature and the nature of gov't.

The D party might have to seriously rethink alienating how many Americans with "Common Sense"? The R party might want to seriously rethink, "How do we get them back on our side and active?"

Gun and Ammo makers need to seriously think, "How can we manage more shifts and not get left holding the bag?"

And all this debate needs to seriously gather the attention of these new gun owners to fully realize the RKBAs and WHY it is so important, the media be damned all. I really hope new gun buyers are smart enough to know when the MSM is lying or misdirecting and that their govt is worth closely watching and guarding our few remaining freedoms from both, not to mention wise enough to take a class or two and to stay and practice safety.

But back to the question... No time soon. Maybe summertime, maybe later after each State govt deals with their own "frenzy" and things settle down there. Look at what the Empire State did in their "frenzy" to pass something into law. Screwed over their own Coppers to the level of mere citizenry. As soon as they "correct" that oversight, another run on gunshops by the proles who will realize the "King" only takes care of the "Kings Men" and a favored few. More Cause to empty already bare naked gunstores.

But it surely is interuppting my fun activities and budget. (poor me) ;)

Time to take up archery or spear-chucking perhaps... :D

tarosean
January 18, 2013, 06:05 AM
Gun and Ammo makers need to seriously think, "How can we manage more shifts and not get left holding the bag?"


Ammunition manufactures are safe..There is not one single proposed ban, law, etc. to do anything to ammunition.

Its all these small AR manufactures, that may just get squashed due to the supply's (parts) going to the big companies first. Its no secret that most use common suppliers.

They got to be able to build them before they can even think of adding more shifts.

guyfromohio
January 18, 2013, 06:12 AM
It's over. Watch gunbroker as the panic buyers start panic selling. Already seeing guns that were $2000 last week, going for $1200.

Evergreen
January 18, 2013, 06:19 AM
It's over. Watch gunbroker as the panic buyers start panic selling. Already seeing guns that were $2000 last week, going for $1200.
Yeah RIght.. You mean like this one:
http://www.gunbroker.com/Auction/ViewItem.aspx?Item=325681137

Nasty
January 18, 2013, 06:26 AM
Perhaps right after the mid terms elections?

sonick808
January 18, 2013, 06:47 AM
90 days after it drops off the news cycle it should begin.

We won't get back to 650$ M&P sports....... ever. 750, maybe, in a year ? I dunno...

Ohio Gun Guy
January 18, 2013, 07:26 AM
The 94 awb was something a lot of people thought could not happen. When it did, for 10 long years people were reminded all the time that it could. This time there is no doubt it could. I think it could continue until they stop introducing legislation in either the house is or senate regarding new awb's. I hope the prices come down, I think they will from the levels they are now, but not back to where they were. The risk for buyers will be how far will they drop once stock is back reliably. How long do you wait before the next run.

The ones you can already plan on are the next congressional elections will cause one....2014 then then 2016 election. In between? Anything in the news or any legislation could keep things going.

mcdonl
January 18, 2013, 07:31 AM
With states like NY doing what they are doing, it will never be the same again.

Halal Pork
January 18, 2013, 07:52 AM
...The risk for buyers will be how far will they drop once stock is back reliably. How long do you wait before the next run.

The ones you can already plan on are the next congressional elections will cause one....2014 then then 2016 election. In between? Anything in the news or any legislation could keep things going.

I agree. Don't be unprepared if you can help it. Ever.

Rembrandt
January 18, 2013, 07:57 AM
I'd give it one year....by that time focus will be on the mid-term elections (no politician will touch the topic), and supply chain will begin to get re-stocked......unless there is another mass shooting.

Halal Pork
January 18, 2013, 07:59 AM
I'd give it one year....by that time focus will be on the mid-term elections (no politician will touch the topic), and supply chain will begin to get re-stocked......unless there is another mass shooting.
And if the House goes to anti-gun legislators following those elections?

Baba Louie
January 18, 2013, 08:42 AM
I forgot to add as others have noted.

All it will take is one more shooting up a gun free school with unprotected kids... and it is wise to point out that the govts responsible are doing all they can to keep the innocent fish in their barrels with minimal to no guardians around. Heck, NY just neutered their own Coppers. :eek:

I wonder why that is?

When I went to school in another lifetime in another country, (Indep. MO in the 60s), most all of my male teachers were WWII or Korea vets and men I admired as heros. I really wish we could get ALL of our returning vets into that line of work instead of working for wally world. I would somehow feel a tad bit better for our kids in school knowing they had lions as role models and mentors prowling the halls and classrooms.

Well... an old man can dream can't he?

alsaqr
January 18, 2013, 08:51 AM
When will it all calm down?

When people run out of money or max out their credit cards.

cfullgraf
January 18, 2013, 08:53 AM
Congress is not going to give him much help, so are we out of hot water as far as gun control proposals?

No, we are not out of the woods as far as government action. The gun control folks will be waiting for a new event to pounce on.

I feel the Republicans are in danger of getting tossed out of office in the mid-terms if they do not start to work together with the Democrats and proceed with good, viable legislation on the budget, economy, taxes and spending. The public is fast getting tired of the gridlock in Washington and the Congress, both Republicans and Democrats, needs to take the initiative back from the administrative branch.

If nothing else happens, prices and inventories will take a year or more before they get back near pre-election levels.

Queen_of_Thunder
January 18, 2013, 08:53 AM
This wont end in 2014 but possibly 2016 if the Repblicans can find decent people to run as Pres and VP.
I suggest Jeb Bush and the present NM governor.
Best chance we have.

mgmorden
January 18, 2013, 08:55 AM
Ammunition manufactures are safe..There is not one single proposed ban, law, etc. to do anything to ammunition.

HR142 - the "Stop Online Ammunition Sales Act" says otherwise:

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c113:H.R.142:

Pilot
January 18, 2013, 09:14 AM
I have been calling, emailing and snail mailing my elected officials on all levels. Still, I do not think we will face a national AWB or major changes in our ability to by the currently available guns, ammo, and standard maagzines. Obama caved, and sent a clear message that its OK to back off of draconian gun laws to save your (Dem politicians) political hide.

There will be availilbility of guns and ammo on a more "normal" basis when more people realize that and there is evidence that Congress will not pass any new MEANINGLFUL legislation. Yes we may get a law formalizing some of the wishy-washy issues Obama had in his EO list, but for me the real threats come from the ultra blue states that have mobilized or going to mobilize and enact more stringent laws than they already have. We all know the culprits. NY (already done), MA, NJ, MD, IL, CA, CT, etc. That is why it is critical to continue pressuring local, state, and federal elected officials to not pass new gun laws or face being fired next election.

tarosean
January 18, 2013, 11:08 AM
HR142 - the "Stop Online Ammunition Sales Act" says otherwise:

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c113:H.R.142:

How does a bill to stop the retail end online, effect manufacturing?
wouldn't we just go back to how we did it for decades prior to online sales?

Killian
January 18, 2013, 11:26 AM
"How can we manage more shifts and not get left holding the bag?"

You mean that ammo makers should be worried cause they are selling every single product they produce and have backordered business for 6 months? Left holding THAT bag? Why invest in doubling your capacity by purchasing new ammunition making equipment, hiring new employees etc when you expect the market to drop DOWN after everyone stops panicking? Be spending money for nothing. You'd only invest in changing everything if you expected demand to be this high forever...which no one expects that. High for 6 months maybe, or a year, but as long as everyone keeps saying this is temporary for the market, ammunition and other accessory makers have no motive to spend money to up their production when it will fall back to what it was before. Or even half of what it was before. Some guys will have spent their firearms budgets for the next 5 years in the last 2 months.

mdauben
January 18, 2013, 01:03 PM
Congress is not going to give him much help, so are we out of hot water as far as gun control proposals?
I certainly hope this is the case, but I refuse to stop worrying yet. Its highly unlikely that the anti-2A forces will get their whole "wishlist" but I feel there is still a chance some things will get forced through congress (the mag ban being the most likely IMO)

When is the gun craze gonna slow down, so the average guy can afford an AR again? When will ammo NOT be backordered?
It could be soon, if as some people have opined the panic buyers have to start worrying about paying their bills and decide they need $1000 cash for food/rent/utilities/etc., more than they need that new AR they panic bought.

Or it could go on for the next year until things start to get back to normal. Many places claim to be back-ordered for 6 months or more already. IIRC it was about a year after the last election before things got back to normal.

Or something could happen and the Republicans may fold and let too many of these bills get passed, and things will never get back to the way they were. We still really just don't know.

You mean that ammo makers should be worried cause they are selling every single product they produce and have backordered business for 6 months? Left holding THAT bag?
Some people have asked why the ammo makers just don't expand their production capacity by hiring more people, buying more equipment of building more plants. The thing is, the current ammo shortage is almost certainly a "bubble" that will burst eventually and they don't want to get caught with that investment in extra personnel/extra equipment/exta plants "bag" when it does.

Skribs
January 18, 2013, 01:03 PM
"Or if there's another mass shooting..."

Statistics show there will be a few again this year. It's tragic, but it's happened consistently for years that a couple of people will go nuts. The most common tool is firearms, but it could just as likely be arson or explosives...or it could go down the other way and be a machete. The fact is that there is absolutely no way to prevent these tragedies from happening.

Even the anti-gun lawmakers know this. They know that if they ban assault weapons, someone else can kill just as many people with 10-round magazines. I guess they think he just has to work harder if he has to reload more. "That will show him!" That's the only logical explanation I can think of for why a lawmaker would think that a shooter who brings a backpack full of mags will be neutered, but a homeowner who probably only loads the mag in the gun with ammunition can just "change the clip if they need to". It doesn't make sense.

rdhood
January 18, 2013, 01:11 PM
The more I think about what's going on right now, the more I think the aim behind it is to use this as an issue to try to take back the House in 2014.

I think that this is going to have the opposite affect. Anti-gun voters will not be nearly as motivated as pro-gun voters. To the average anti-gun voter (unless you are in CT or NY), this issue drops off the radar in a month or two. To the pro-gun voter, the antis have just made an attempt to restrict/register/confiscate our guns/magazines/ammunition. They are attempting to confiscate our heirlooms, hunting weapons, self defense firearms. To the pro-gun voter, this issue will NOT be forgotten in 2014 or 2016.

mgkdrgn
January 18, 2013, 01:13 PM
When they are all sold.

MudPuppy
January 18, 2013, 01:24 PM
Yeah RIght.. You mean like this one:
http://www.gunbroker.com/Auction/ViewItem.aspx?Item=325681137




Started at $5,990.00
Current Bid $0.00
Time left Listing has Ended

Yes, EXACTLY like that one. OMG, ARs are all selling for like $6K now! :banghead:

Truth is, the 2nd is under attack. As many gun owners as there are out there, theres a bunch more that want to be but have work, family obligations, etc that may have resulted in "i'll get one next week", but just haven't made it a priority. This woke a bunch of those guys up and they're trying to secure what they can, before they can't. The threat to Rule by Decree is the real risk, imo.

Trent
January 18, 2013, 02:03 PM
Not 6K, but still over $2500.

http://www.gunbroker.com/Auction/ViewItem.aspx?Item=325720390

ku4hx
January 18, 2013, 03:03 PM
I hope the "run" on guns never ends. What I hope for is more production of all guns, ammunition, components and etc. What I'd hope for is every true American that doesn't own a gun buys three: a rifle, a shotgun and a handgun. And, of course, sufficient ammunition to become proficient with each.

I'd like to see the run on guns cause the building of new gun ranges and gun clubs in every community in the country. I'd like this to be taken as a sign the true American population will simply no longer tolerate the criminals being in charge of our fate.

Of course I'd like to see more guns and ammunition on shelves but think about it. This run on guns is a direct reaction to the lawlessness of our federal government. I see it as a strong statement by true Americans and I'm hoping the message is, "You ain't seen nothing yet".

Preacher.
January 19, 2013, 01:17 AM
I sure wish prices will come back to normal cause Id sure like to buy an AR but I ain't gonna pay 3X the price for one right now.

USAF_Vet
January 19, 2013, 01:41 AM
If ammo prices ever regain some semblance of normalcy, I'll never get caught with my pants down again. I'll spend a couple thousand on factory ammo, and then get a reloading press and a few thousand more primers and bullets.

tarosean
January 19, 2013, 01:54 AM
then get a reloading press and a few thousand more primers and bullets.

Thats the truth...

We had the all the family come in for Christmas and burned through a TON of Ammo. I really wasn't paying attention to the market at all being preoccupied and all.

I had a pistol class scheduled for Feb and realized I wouldnt have enough... Sent my wife searching high and low to no avail and ended up getting some stuff Ive never used before online (Hornaday Steel Match) only because thats all I could find in stock for 500rds. While Ive always saved my brass for friends.. This is the last straw and finally gave me that extra kick in the bottom to reload... now if only equipment and dies were around...

mgmorden
January 19, 2013, 02:22 AM
How does a bill to stop the retail end online, effect manufacturing?
wouldn't we just go back to how we did it for decades prior to online sales?

You would - which means that you'd be paying a lot more than what online sales have allowed in past years, and some of the rarer ammo will likely become much harder to attain. I don't know of a lot of local places that stock 7.62x25 or 7.62 Nagant.

Sol
January 19, 2013, 11:12 AM
No, it's his buddy George Soros that holds a ton of firearm stock. Actually I think only two or three U.S. Gun manufacturers are publicly traded and the rest are indirectly traded by being held by those megamanagment firms.

gym
January 19, 2013, 11:52 AM
I have been pretty much right so far, I would say depending on future incidents, 1 year. If nothing happens, everyone but the same 5 people "or so" will have moved on.
People have short memories, they forgot the Beatles in a few years, and they forgot 9/11, in a half dozen. When I say forgot, I mean it no longer influenced them as far as the way everyone wanted blood ,when it happened. Now it's, why are we there, and bring home the troops, why did we spend the money. Not that, "if we hadn't gone there they would be here".
We see the same thing every day with headlines, that just get wiped clean by the next news story. It's the human survival instinct to forget, as with "pain" when you have a severe surgery from something like a back injury, and say, I'll never lift weights, or fight again, and you get better, and the next thing you know you are back training.
This is the same with everything including death, everyone dies, but no one expects to. And everyone eventually forgets about loved ones who perished not completely, but enough to function normally.
The same will be true with guns, no different, "strike while the iron is hot", is the key phrase, if they don't get it done now, it won't get done ever.

danez71
January 19, 2013, 12:51 PM
When will the run on the guns end?

When the 2A is upheld.

lionking
January 19, 2013, 01:34 PM
Shooting and guns are becoming a rich man's sport/hobby. Except maybe .22, a Mosin or shotgun.

MAKster
January 19, 2013, 06:33 PM
As a percentage of a typical person's annual income, firearms are probably less expensive today then they have ever been. If you bought a Colt revolver in the Old West it cost around two months wages. That would be around $5,000 today. A Glock cost 1/10 that.

gym
January 19, 2013, 07:43 PM
They were selling single 00buck at the show for 2 dollars each. She said she drove to Michigan to get them. "Very original story".
Why do they ask you what you can get it for if they don't want the answer?
I asked the vendor how much for a laser max laser for my shield, 'he said" $100 clams, I said no thanks, he said "why", I said "because I can get it for 75 online", "he started arguing with me"I said, meet me half way, I can show you on my phone they are $73-$75 in a half dozen stores. He said, "I pay $84", I say you are getting robbed then, he gets huffy and walks away mumbling.
Don't ask don't tell?

pa350z
January 19, 2013, 07:47 PM
Concerning AMMO, its simple supply and demand tempered by manufacturing output. The big AMMO makers should be stepping up by putting on more shifts, adding more equipment etc... while there is this shortage, they are losing big bucks and know it. I would be that we will see a return to what can be considered a more normal supply of ammo within the next 6 mos. Too much money being left on the table and Remmington, Winchester, Federal etc... all know it. Watch for a flood of eastern Europe AMMO to start coming in.

On the actual firearms, who knows. Not sure Colt, Smith and Wesson, RRA, Bushmaster etc.. are going to ramp up to meet demand. They know they are leaving dollars on the table but, will be very careful in adding equipment, staff, shifts etc... until they know what is happening at the Federal level. If nothing happens, look out for more product to come on the market.

r1derbike
January 19, 2013, 08:02 PM
I hope every new or future first time gun owner gets proper training, range time, and joins the pro-gun organization of their choice. We need these voices for present and future battles against 2nd and Constitution, and there will be contentious battles; the present one is long from being over.

The more gun owners that we have, the better. Supply and demand hasn't affected me at all. I have all that I need, in moderation. Read the political climate, and took action before the SHTF, politically speaking.

morcey2
January 19, 2013, 08:08 PM
It'll end the day after I break down and buy an overpriced upper and barrel for my lower.

My actual guess is that it will be early next year before things get back to somewhat normal in the sane states. I'm still looking for H4895, H4350, and IMR-4064. I thought I had enough, but I don't. Lots of bullets, lots o' brass, and lots o' primers, but I'm already running low on powder. I do have a ton of Trail Boss and will probably shoot lots of that with cheap bullets in 7mm, 8mm, and 7.62x54R.

Matt

bayesian
January 19, 2013, 08:08 PM
I pretty much agree with everything pa350z said (so, one might ask, why I'm commenting... )

Anyway, the capital investments you make for expanding production really require you to project out how much additional demand there will be in the future. If the current run is just shifting demand from the future to now, then this would be a strong argument for both gun and ammo manufacturers to not expand production much right now. You lose out on sales now but those additional sales can be swamped by wasted capital investments sitting idle when you have too much capacity.

I'm pretty sure that a good number of the purchases are being made by people that might have purchased in the future and they just moved bought now. Coupled with the uncertainty of future regulations, I think gun makers be fools to expand production much beyond adding shift work.

So the interesting question comes from those other buyers that would not have bought but for the threat of regulations. Are those guns going to sit in the closet? I think so. I think it is like people that on the spur of the moment, go out and buy a bike because they are going to ride more. Most don't. In which case, the additional guns are not going to be associated with increased demand for ammo.

I guess the related question then is, where is all of the additional ammo that is being bought over the last couple of years going? How much is being consumed and how much is sitting in stockpiles? If alot of that is in stockpiles, then the current sales and increases in sales can't easily continue... That would be an argument for ammo manufacturers not greatly increasing production. I'm sure they've got marketing researchers polling ranges to see if they are seeing increased business. Curious what the answer is...

Tcruse
January 19, 2013, 08:30 PM
There will be a noticable increase because of the new gun owners. NCIS stated they processed 2.8 million background checks. A high percentage of these are new users since users with CCW typically are not called in so NCIS system would not know about their purchases. It appears that most of the new puchasers are buying for protection and plan to get CCW permits, so that means practice, training classes etc. So, regular ammo purchases.

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