To help answer all the questions about when the panic will end...


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gspn
January 19, 2013, 08:37 PM
I keep seeing a variation of the question pop up over and over..."when will the panic buying stop?"

To help answer these seemingly impossible questions I am going to provide an invaluable service. I have in front of me a Magic 8 ball. If you have a question pertaining to the current craziness in the gun market then post your question here and i will consult the Magic 8 ball for an answer.

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TIMC
January 19, 2013, 11:52 PM
Will this be the only reply to your post? :evil:

gspn
January 20, 2013, 01:45 AM
The Magic 8 Ball says..."Most Likely". :D

Skylerbone
January 20, 2013, 01:48 AM
Did the Magic 8 Ball just hedge its bets?

Will bulk 55gr. FMJ be available by Spring?

gspn
January 20, 2013, 01:51 AM
Shaking...waaaaaaiiiiitinnnng....Magic 8 Ball says "Don't count on it."

1911 guy
January 20, 2013, 01:58 AM
And half of our membershio here is scratching its collective head wondering "Magic 8 ball? Whaa..?" Not me. I laughed at the fond memories of a misspent youth.

Zardaia
January 20, 2013, 02:03 AM
Will we EVER see 650 msrp ar's again?

readyeddy
January 20, 2013, 03:57 AM
Will the Niners make the spread tomorrow?

labhound
January 20, 2013, 04:43 AM
I talked to the owner of the gun shop I frequent this past week about how crowded his shop and range were. He said sales were historic, ammo was getting hard to find and the madness would continue for the next 4 years and a week!

T2K
January 20, 2013, 06:02 AM
Supply and Demand dictates that the suppliers will increase production to meet demand.

There will be a backlog effect. But, there may also be a "whiplash" effect later - where increased manufacturing overwhelms demand.

Hard to predict the timeframes involved since other external variables (legislation) are in play.

JRWhit
January 20, 2013, 07:14 AM
Supply and Demand dictates that the suppliers will increase production to meet demand.

There will be a backlog effect. But, there may also be a "whiplash" effect later - where increased manufacturing overwhelms demand.

Hard to predict the timeframes involved since other external variables (legislation) are in play.
remember 2008, ammo suppliers wouldn't increase production even though shelves where empty everywhere.

Solo
January 20, 2013, 07:21 AM
And half of our membershio here is scratching its collective head wondering "Magic 8 ball? Whaa..?" Not me. I laughed at the fond memories of a misspent youth.
Isn't that an iPhone app?

mjkten
January 20, 2013, 07:24 AM
I am sure production at all the ammunition factories is at an all time high. With the uncertain regulatory future, there will probably be no investment in new tooling or additional manufacturing capability. This uncertain regulatory environment is just one of the tools the Obama administration is using to drag the USA down to third world levels.

TRX
January 20, 2013, 07:42 AM
The local Remington plant has been running two shifts, six days a week, for ten years now...

T2K
January 20, 2013, 10:04 AM
No, I don't know the manufacturing situation in 2008.

I know that it defies the laws of business that one would not increase production if one had demand in excess of what one could sell (within the limits of production capacity).

KTXdm9
January 20, 2013, 10:10 AM
Ooh, ooh, I wanna play! When will my LGS have ak-47s and ammo at a "reasonable" price again? :D

fallout mike
January 20, 2013, 10:17 AM
Not gun related but im desperate. Will my girlfriend dump me when she finds out my wife is pregnant again ?

sota
January 20, 2013, 10:23 AM
it's been well discussed in other threads (maybe on another forum... cross-polination happens in my head all the time :D ) that manufacturers can't ramp up production quickly or easily for various reasons. so for the "short" term (your guess is as good as mine as to what "short" is in this case) supplies will be a fixed number based on manufacturering capacity. demand is the true variable in this equation. possibly, even hopefully, all the "panic" buyers will buy themselves out of the market and the demand will fall back to normal levels, possibly lower. I also hope there's a significant amount of "buyer's remorse" (based on all factors) that creates a nice market for us normals to pick up some never used "used" items at normal or lower than normal costs. yes it would suck for all the panic'ers, but that's the way the game is played.

19-3Ben
January 20, 2013, 10:24 AM
Not gun related but im desperate. Will my girlfriend dump me when she finds out my wife is pregnant again ?
^^^:uhoh:

Sooo.... are congratulations in order?

sota
January 20, 2013, 10:24 AM
fallout: if your girlfriend knows about your wife, you're doing it wrong. :D

fallout mike
January 20, 2013, 10:26 AM
Well, its her sister. Kinda hard to hide that.

Coop45
January 20, 2013, 11:11 AM
LOL!! Her sister must be prettier than mine! Thay's a better subject than what we've seen recently. All that "sky is falling" talk only helps to drive the panic.

gspn
January 20, 2013, 02:50 PM
Ooh, ooh, I wanna play! When will my LGS have ak-47s and ammo at a "reasonable" price again? :D
Sorry...the Magic 8 Ball can't predict dates...it can give answers like "yes", "no", "doubtful" etc...rephrase and I'll consult it for you.

gspn
January 20, 2013, 02:52 PM
Not gun related but im desperate. Will my girlfriend dump me when she finds out my wife is pregnant again ?

The 8 Ball says "Signs point to yes."

gspn
January 20, 2013, 02:53 PM
Will the Niners make the spread tomorrow?

8 Ball says "Cannot predict now."

gspn
January 20, 2013, 02:54 PM
Will we EVER see 650 msrp ar's again?

8 Ball says "my sources say no."

OptimusPrime
January 20, 2013, 02:55 PM
Not gun related but im desperate. Will my girlfriend dump me when she finds out my wife is pregnant again ?
You need to roll your own "ultra-light reloads."

BullfrogKen
January 20, 2013, 03:02 PM
4 years ago the manufacturers added people and offered overtime, but few did little beyond decisions that could be reversed.


T2K - if the demand for your product is driven by fleeting passions, or could be reduced by a law, it is not wise to make capital investments and get stuck with that dormant extra capacity.

RFMan
January 20, 2013, 03:05 PM
No, I don't know the manufacturing situation in 2008.

I know that it defies the laws of business that one would not increase production if one had demand in excess of what one could sell (within the limits of production capacity).
Beyond a certain point, increasing production for the items currently in short supply requires an investment in tooling (capital equipment), which must be depreciated over time, and which must show a positive ROI (profit) above a certain level over a certain time frame. This is required for, a) the business owner to want to do it in the first place, and b) the acquisition of credit (if needed), which depends on a sound business plan. Since the uncertainty level is HIGH as to how long the demand will last and how much there will be, and since many of these publicly traded companies are slaves to the whim of Wall Street and investors (a pox that adversely affects MANY industries in the US today) which is best described as rampant short-term-ism, businesses are reluctant to make those investments lest the demand (and prices) drop before the needed payback. Then the equipment can't pay for itself, the bank and/or others lower the credit rating, and the stock market punishes the company stock for not being clairvoyant.

So, if more days and/or more shifts can be added, it makes sense to do that because the investment and ramp time are relatively low (some training, etc). Once the current plant's capacity is reached, increasing actual capacity is costly and difficult. And aggravating to those of us who want it to happen :)

P.S. - I'm an engineer, not a business person, but plants make the things I design, so I have to grasp some of this out of pure self-defense...

aeriedad
January 20, 2013, 03:09 PM
Not gun related but im desperate. Will my girlfriend dump me when she finds out my wife is pregnant again ?

Just tell her it's not yours. :evil:

OP,
Am I going bankrupt if all my ammo & magazine backorders ship the same month?

sidheshooter
January 20, 2013, 03:10 PM
Let us not be those people who forget history. For example, when there was no .380 ammo to be found anywhere (outside of basements in North Idaho and Texas, of course) sage industry insiders observed that plants tool up for "runs" seasonally. Indeed, a calendar year later, all the owners of LCPs, Sig P238s, Kahr P380s and Beretta 34s (added that last one for myself) were able to hit ammotogo.com and buy all sorts of .380 ammo.

Give it a year and, assuming legality, all your ammo will become available again, for at least a little while until it gets bought up all over again.

So far as ARs and 30round P-Mags, it's time to consult the 8 ball...

westy39
January 20, 2013, 03:12 PM
O great magic 8 ball please tell me if I will ever find true happiness with an evil black gun???

buckeye8
January 20, 2013, 03:17 PM
Magic 8 Ball, where are all the entrepreneurs?

This is the perfect time for a new ammo, holster, magazine or accessory company to sneak their way into the national market.

Sure, there is the risk of a ban, but there is also unprecedented opportunity with regards to unfulfilled demand.

gspn
January 20, 2013, 03:41 PM
O great magic 8 ball please tell me if I will ever find true happiness with an evil black gun???

The Magic 8 Ball came back quickly with "It is certain."

joeschmoe
January 20, 2013, 05:46 PM
Magic 8 ball... will Americans (especially NY's) ever realize their future Liberty is tied to voting for new candidates and new parties rather than voting for the same old ones and then crying/panic buying at the LGS?

gspn
January 20, 2013, 06:52 PM
Magic 8 ball... will Americans (especially NY's) ever realize their future Liberty is tied to voting for new candidates and new parties rather than voting for the same old ones and then crying/panic buying at the LGS?

Remember...I'm just the messenger here...the Magic 8 Ball says "Don't count on it."

KTXdm9
January 20, 2013, 06:57 PM
Sorry...the Magic 8 Ball can't predict dates...it can give answers like "yes", "no", "doubtful" etc...rephrase and I'll consult it for you.
Ah, yes, how stupid of me. Magic 8 ball, will I buy an AK at pre-panic prices in the next six months?

gspn
January 20, 2013, 08:15 PM
Ah, yes, how stupid of me. Magic 8 ball, will I buy an AK at pre-panic prices in the next six months?

Magic 8 Ball says "Very doubtful"

joeschmoe
January 20, 2013, 08:16 PM
Remember...I'm just the messenger here...the Magic 8 Ball says "Don't count on it."
That's what I think too.

justice06rr
January 21, 2013, 03:58 AM
Supply and Demand dictates that the suppliers will increase production to meet demand.

There will be a backlog effect. But, there may also be a "whiplash" effect later - where increased manufacturing overwhelms demand.

Hard to predict the timeframes involved since other external variables (legislation) are in play.


Nope, suppliers/manufacturers can't really keep up with demand to begin with.

For example, Spikes Tactical is back-ordered for 6 to 12months according to my friend who works there.

you also have to keep in mind all the newer gun owners that are trying to buy more ammo and mags that will keep the demand higher than what can be produced.

If you enjoyed reading about "To help answer all the questions about when the panic will end..." here in TheHighRoad.org archive, you'll LOVE our community. Come join TheHighRoad.org today for the full version!