Of all of the things on back order


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Jeff H
February 13, 2013, 05:53 PM
I haven't ordered much since the 1st of the year and of course everything I have ordered has been on back order but since I am not in a hurry for it, I can afford to wait. The order below was placed with Brownells roughly a month ago.

223 Sierra bullets. Yep, they shipped after a couple of weeks.

20 round AR magazines. Yep, they shipped after about 3-4 weeks.

100 round MTM cartridge cases. Nope. Still on back order after over a month...


Of the 3 items I ordered, I never would have guessed that I would still be waiting for my MTM boxes. Humorous.

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bdgackle
February 13, 2013, 08:45 PM
I would chalk it up to lots of new reloaders. Those cases are a low production item, with slow demand normally. It wouldn't take much dry out the supply chain.

This is a good lesson on what "just in time supply" actually means. Stuff gets made exactly as fast as it gets sold. There isn't a whole lot of "stuff" in transit, warehouses, or on store shelves. Any imbalance between supply and demand very quickly results in shortages. This is the flip side of the near perfect efficiency in supply chains that results from computerizing, networking, rationalizing and monetizing everything. Reducing redundancy... reduces redundancy.

I'm starting to think about this whenver I purchase anything I use on a regular basis -- maybe I shouldn't take the fully stocked Wal-Mart for granted. In any case, toilet paper and primers are both cheaper in bulk, and both hold their value better than cash, so why not buy 150% of what I need when I need it?

Just don't let your cat find the toilet paper stash. That ends badly. :cuss:

ngnrd
February 13, 2013, 11:26 PM
The ammo case shelf at the local Sportsman's Warehouse was pretty barren for the last two months. But last week they must have gotten a whole truckload of 'em in. Because they haven't sold out yet.

bdgackle
February 14, 2013, 03:51 AM
I am sure they'd ramp eventually. It is inconvenient in the meanwhile though. That is my point.

il.bill
February 14, 2013, 10:43 AM
I would chalk it up to lots of new reloaders. Those cases are a low production item, with slow demand normally. It wouldn't take much dry out the supply chain.

This is a good lesson on what "just in time supply" actually means. Stuff gets made exactly as fast as it gets sold. There isn't a whole lot of "stuff" in transit, warehouses, or on store shelves. Any imbalance between supply and demand very quickly results in shortages. This is the flip side of the near perfect efficiency in supply chains that results from computerizing, networking, rationalizing and monetizing everything. Reducing redundancy... reduces redundancy.

I'm starting to think about this whenver I purchase anything I use on a regular basis -- maybe I shouldn't take the fully stocked Wal-Mart for granted. In any case, toilet paper and primers are both cheaper in bulk, and both hold their value better than cash, so why not buy 150% of what I need when I need it?
This is an excellent explanation. I hope you do not mind that I will be incorporating many of the points in your post into my day-to-day conversations. It is often easy for me to forget that everything in commerce has a cost, or trade off, and increased efficiency inherently comes at a price.

Thanks for the insight.

CoRoMo
February 14, 2013, 10:59 AM
OP should have used Cabela's. I ordered 12 MTM P100 boxes on Jan.23rd and received them on the 29th. Them and fifteen pounds of W748.

bdgackle
February 14, 2013, 11:49 AM
Il.bill - I am flattered that you found it of value. Please feel free. Ideas have more value when shared - with the caveat that it is just the speculation of an amateur armchair economist.

Every mega-corp I have worked for, though, has regarded the dollar value of any sort of inventory - either product or raw material - as "dead capital". Since this value is MUCH easier for the bean counters to track than the opportunity cost of production delays, it gets over emphasized in trade-off decisions (as an engineer, my view is also biased in the opposite direction though - since the downside of the latter affect me more).

I have no solid data, but it has seemed to me that ever since the economy tightened up in '08, "out-of-stock" conditions have existed at stores for days/weeks at a time - this is more visible with shooting supplies, but seems to affect everything from tires to Tupperware. I suspect that this is one more decision making process where the pendulum has swung too far in one direction. Companies will swing the other way as normal day-to-day bumps in the road become painful in our increasingly interconnected world.

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