After the madness slows.


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foxs
March 7, 2013, 11:19 PM
How bad do you think things will be for your LGS when the madness is over?
Lets face it people are buying like crazy now. What happens when people cant or wont spend anymore? If that is possible. Makes you think

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Killian
March 7, 2013, 11:32 PM
We are a long way from people being unable to spend. Probably a year or 1.5 years before this will stop. I say that because people are NOT able to get accessories and ammo right now. But the demand is high. So people order ammo and are told, "You'll get it when it ships" which means when it is produced. So all the production of every ammo company in the US is geared toward supplying backorders right now. But I know for a fact that there are a bunch of people who are looking for ammo but they haven't backordered. They are standing around waiting to see if it appears in stores. When it does appear in stores, everyone, even those who backordered (because let's face it, how do you know you'll ever get that ammo backordered?) are there to buy whatever meager supply comes in. For every 10 people who have ordered 400, 500, or 1000 rounds, there are probably 100 others who haven't ordered but who are waiting. So those 100 are going to have to get their ammo before this calms down. So at least 6 months or a year or more before its over. My opinion.

primalmu
March 7, 2013, 11:36 PM
A prudent business owner will bank the profits they are making now in anticipating of a slump once things slow down. When that will be, who knows?

joeschmoe
March 7, 2013, 11:37 PM
Lol. I wouldn't worry too much about the LGS. Crowds of new customers waving cash and buying everything in sight is not a bad thing. No shortage of customers or cash in the future.

Obama has finally found a way to stimulate the economy. Through us.

MagnunJoe
March 7, 2013, 11:43 PM
The madness in South Florida won't end year, I can guarantee U that. And if we have another mass killing, it will take even longer.

Teachu2
March 7, 2013, 11:52 PM
The longer it lasts, the more LGSs go out of business. The volume buyers have better reserves and mush more clout, and will get resupplied at a much better rate than a LGS. Sustained panic buying and shortages are deadly to the little guy - you can't sell what you don't have, and they are at the end of the supply line.

CZguy
March 7, 2013, 11:55 PM
My LGD told me that he is only able to get about twenty percent of the guns he needs. His shop is mostly empty, with a parade of people coming through looking to buy things that he can't get.

In short this is a great time to be selling, not buying. :D

Grassman
March 8, 2013, 12:01 AM
There is (was) a local gun shop that made a killing in the last craze. Has since shut the doors, I think just a couple months before Sandy Hook. They were hard to deal with anyway. Smoke filled know it all, how dare you ask a stupid question and waste my time kinda shop. Oh well good riddance.

BSA1
March 8, 2013, 11:57 AM
Four more years is a long time to be speculating on market conditions.

MedWheeler
March 8, 2013, 12:33 PM
I live in southern Florida, and this area was ravaged by hurricanes in 2004 and 2005. Prior to those storms, there were a certain number of roofers and contractors in this area. After the storms, everybody and his brother was suddenly a roofer, and more were flocking in from out of the area.
Many established businesses here, probably hoping that continued storm activity would keep them around. When that didn't happen, a lot of those newcomers' businesses failed. But, many of them became fairly solid, and their presence had a negative impact on a lot of those that had already been well-established, and quite a few of those failed as well.

I could see that taking place all over with a lot of people who entered the gun business in the last six months, if the frenzy were to drop off tomorrow, or in the last six-to-twelve months of a frenzy that continues past then.

Teachu2
March 8, 2013, 03:57 PM
One of the local transfer dealers (home-based FFL) was making so much money a couple years back that he quit his day job and went full-time, doing a couple dozen transfers a day. Now he's lucky to do two - nothing left to transfer....

AlbertH
March 8, 2013, 04:11 PM
One of the local transfer dealers (home-based FFL) was making so much money a couple years back that he quit his day job and went full-time, doing a couple dozen transfers a day. Now he's lucky to do two - nothing left to transfer....
my local FFL, is by appointment only because he mainly has a full time job and has the FFL to help finance his gun hobby. I have a weapon sent to him and when it gets there he calls me and we set up an appointment to pick it up.

Many LGS and big box stores want a small fortune to do a transfer because they want to sell you the gun instead of making a few bucks for the time they spend filling out paperwork.

If gun ownership is promoted as more recreational sport than a 2A right, the numbers of gun owners will continue to grow although a bit more slowly. When it slows, that handgun both you and I have been waiting to get our hands on may just come available.

joeschmoe
March 8, 2013, 04:45 PM
80% of all small businesses fail in the first 3 years. Open a business, take your chances. Welcome to America.

mbt2001
March 8, 2013, 04:52 PM
What worries me is that people will get guns and ammo and then decide that they do not have any other preperations and we will have food and medicine shortages... Worse than we already do I should say.

Sam1911
March 8, 2013, 07:20 PM
Personal prediction is we'll be back where we were a year ago. Decent sales numbers on a lot of things, inventory on the shelves, lots of new shooters and folks who got back into shooting during the panic.

The dealers who can make it through the crazy times will probably be just fine.

(They'll probably have a pretty healthy supply of used AR15s for sale, but only a small fraction of those bought recently will be sold again post-panic.)

USAF_Vet
March 8, 2013, 08:01 PM
I foresee a secondary run on guns and ammo.

A lot of new shooters got caught with their pants down, especially on ammo. They say 'I learned my lesson, I won't get caught unprepared again'. So when ammo starts to become available again, these folks run out and buy everything they can get their hands on, and they keep doing it. Not only will they be prepared for the next shortage, they'll have excess they can sell to the next batch who were unprepared.

It'll take some time for ammo to meet demand, and supplies will still be low due to people buying more ammo than they can ever shoot in a lifetime.

When ammo does get back in reasonable supplies, I plan to buy a couple thousand rounds of every center fire I own, and several thousand .22lr. I'm sure I'm not alone in that.

tomrkba
March 8, 2013, 08:05 PM
I so wish I had bought a trainload of South African 7.62x51mm when I had the chance.

scaatylobo
March 8, 2013, 08:23 PM
There are lesser NICS checks and I believe that is due to a lack of product in all our LGS's.

The largest one is completely out of any and all semi auto rifles,cant call for a NICS check if there is nothing to buy.

And ammo is GONE too.

CZguy
March 9, 2013, 12:26 AM
Originally posted by SunnySlopes

Quote:
In short this is a great time to be selling

Are you not reading your own posts?


Quote:
My LGD told me that he is only able to get about twenty percent of the guns he needs. His shop is mostly empty, with a parade of people coming through looking to buy things that he can't get.

If he can't get inventory, then he can't sell.

I already know of some small shops going out of business. Their fixed costs remain the same. Rent, electric, etc.

But they have no cash flow because they can't get inventory.

Do the math.

Sunny,

I was referring to a collector, like myself. This has been a great time to fine tune my collection. I'm selling firearms that I don't absolutely love. Next year I'll acquire a couple.

And yes, surprisingly, I do read my own posts. :D

justice06rr
March 9, 2013, 06:17 AM
CZ, agreed on what you said.

Its good on a personal level if you are selling your own firearms you bought cheap, and now can make a good profit when you sell them. I always thought firearms was a bad investment, but just like every other business/product -- timing is everything. I have never lost money on a firearm I've sold, in fact I usually make profit or break even.

For a small gun shop this climate is bad because the lack of gun sales cannot maintain their costs. Ammo and accessory sales alone cannot pay the rent and bills. Raise your prices too much on those and people will not buy from you. kind of a Catch22.

For someone who might want to start into the gun business, it might be better to start on a personal level first (gun shows, buy/sell firearms) then later on get into the actual business when things progress.

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