When will ammo prices come down?


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herkyguy
March 17, 2013, 10:29 AM
wondering what the general consensus might be on when ammo prices will come back down to normal levels. in other words, when will ammo become available for the average shooter at reasonable prices?

sure, some out there will keep trolling with their advertised .223 for $1 a round, but when will supply finally recover and demand return to pre-nuts levels?

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22-rimfire
March 17, 2013, 10:53 AM
Does it matter? The price will be the price. I just hope that the shelves begin to get some stock and then prices will stabilize.

orionengnr
March 17, 2013, 11:01 AM
Why don't you start a poll asking "How many ammo prices threads/polls will there be today?". :rolleyes:

Captains1911
March 17, 2013, 11:03 AM
Does it matter? The price will be the price. I just hope that the shelves begin to get some stock and then prices will stabilize.

Of course it matters. We're not all made of money you know. It's purely speculation at this point as to when supply will catch up, but it will.

alsaqr
March 17, 2013, 11:30 AM
None of the above.

Prices will come down when folks stop paying insane prices for ammunition.

TCB in TN
March 17, 2013, 11:35 AM
Here locally prices are already coming down. Other than .22lr the gun shops all have a pretty decent supply, and prices are already down close to where they were before. I think that by June things should be basically back to about normal.

danez71
March 17, 2013, 11:39 AM
I think 6 months to a year.

There will always be a new normal higher price for eveything so that last choice is a bit perplexing. If its meant to say that todays price will not come down and todays price IS the new price. Nope, not gunna happen.

jamesbeat
March 17, 2013, 12:21 PM
I'll be interested to find out what the prices will come down to when they do come down.
I hope that this shortage doesn't prove to ammo dealers/manufacturers that the market will bear higher prices.

DsbJax
March 17, 2013, 12:21 PM
It will be like gas, while the supply will loosen up and prices will drop they will not return to "normal".

Bad Andy
March 17, 2013, 12:28 PM
When DHS stops buying 4.5 million rounds per year, stockpiling 1.6 billion rounds. In other words when we get a new Administration in DC that is Freedom Friendly.

herkyguy
March 17, 2013, 12:54 PM
Why don't you start a poll asking "How many ammo prices threads/polls will there be today?". :rolleyes:
I did a search before posting the poll and found nothing asking my question. the closest one i found asked only about the shortage and that was more than a month ago. lots of talk in threads about ammo, but nothing i saw asked for peoples' opinions of how long until prices stabilized.

i was curious. i believe i followed the standard practice of searching for something similar first.

if my poll ruined your morning, i apologize.

i've thought a few times things would settle down and then some new headline hits and it seems we make no progress in things steadying. i asked because it is frustrating me as it severely limits what i can go out and shoot.

herkyguy
March 17, 2013, 12:56 PM
orionengnr, by any chance are you a P3 FE? if so, you're engines are upside down....not mine :D

vamo
March 17, 2013, 12:59 PM
It seems like when walmart has things in stock the price is not really that different than the pre panic levels. saw some steel cased 9mm for about 10.20 per box of 50 the other day; I know crappy quality stuff but acceptable target ammo given the current situation imo. Before the panic these boxes were a tad under $10. The trick is just finding it in stock.

clutch
March 17, 2013, 01:00 PM
I'm thinking a year to recover, expect the 5% or so increase that was announced. I haven't paid excessive prices. Just bought a box of xmp193 5.56 for 8.93 a box at walmart. Tulammo 7.62x39 was 5.13 a box of 20.

I'm only paying retail prices, but I have the comfort of having ammo for this shooting season so I can be selective.

talldragon
March 17, 2013, 01:04 PM
Good poll, valid question. I voted 6 mos., but I think I agree with others who have pointed out that the market will bear higher prices,
due to the panic and continuing fears of bans and restrictions (which are not unfounded, just not realized as of yet).
Even reloading supplies are being affected. So really, the short answer is supply will be back,
but most of the prices we enjoyed just last summer are gone for good.

PRM
March 17, 2013, 01:08 PM
2014 Mid-Terms will be the big forecaster.

M2 Carbine
March 17, 2013, 01:17 PM
I doubt the price will ever come down to what it was before the shortage.
There will be a new "normal" price.

I just hope most people that have been constantly crying because they can't find ammo get smart and stock pile a couple years worth of ammo before the next shortage.
It's just not that big a deal to buy a extra box or two once a month, or so, and stick it in the back of the closet.


Although we all know that won't happen.:rolleyes:

DSling
March 17, 2013, 03:43 PM
I doubt the price will ever come down to what it was before the shortage.
There will be a new "normal" price.

I just hope most people that have been constantly crying because they can't find ammo get smart and stock pile a couple years worth of ammo before the next shortage.
It's just not that big a deal to buy a extra box or two once a month, or so, and stick it in the back of the closet.


Although we all know that won't happen.:rolleyes:

+1 Just like gas

Killian
March 17, 2013, 04:00 PM
On some ammo there isn't a shortage now. I could buy all the 30-30 and 30-06 I wanted at the local Walmart. If I had a gun that would fire it. Some of the calibers that are in lesser demand--just think of the obscure ones, .327 Ruger for example--will likely be back on the shelves pretty quickly. No one is much demanding them so a couple of batch runs ought to take care of restocking the shelves. Calibers that are more in demand--.223, .308, .45ACP, 9mm, .40S&W--probably a year or more to meet the demand. If I remember correctly, most retailers are measuring their backorder status as sometime in the back half of this year. Have to supply all the people who have bought ammo already before thinking about shipping it out for new customers.

This assumes that we don't have a major war in Asia break out with us supplying one or more allies with ammunition, or that the President doesn't decide that pistol ammunition from overseas doesn't represent a "sporting purpose" (what state allows hunting with centerfire pistol ammo? I can hear the argument already) and cut off supplies (not all of it Russian either...lots of stuff from Czech Republic, Spain, Serbia comes here, I understand) or that we don't have some other disruptive event (such as factories that produce ammunition having to relocate their production facilities out of legislatively unfriendly states, thus disrupting their production schedules), and if we don't have a sudden renewed increase in demand for some other reason I haven't thought of.

So some ammo...back quickly.
Popular ammo...back half of this year/beginning of next year, maybe longer.

TheDaywalkersDad
March 17, 2013, 04:04 PM
This is my guess.
If we have another horrible high profile massacre like Sandy Hook then prices aren't coming down for several months afterwards. Another mass shooting will feed the media's appetite for anti gun stories and give more ammunition to the anti gunners. Fear is stoked and panic buying continues.

If another massacre doesn't happen and the AWB dies then I expect prices to return to normal over the summer.
I base this on a couple of things. Many Americans will have to pay income taxes and this will leave little cash for more ammo. Gas prices always increase over the summer and this too will cut into ammo money. Added vacation spending over the spring and summer also drains the dollars that are currently headed towards the ammo counter. Let's not forget that most people tend to time their moves over the summer when school is out. This is always expensive and leaves little left for ammunition purchases.
We are seeing everyone spending (or adding to the credit card) their disposable income on guns and ammo. It has to peak sooner or later and I suspect that we'll see things get better by July.

Of course if we have another Sandy Hook or VA Tech then all bets are off.

OilyPablo
March 17, 2013, 04:14 PM
Can we have a pie chart for that?

Right now, if the price is even close to right I'm buying 1000 rounds or all they have.

ThorinNNY
March 17, 2013, 04:25 PM
Depends on where you live, maybe. If the NY SAFE Act is not repealed, I would guess ammo prices in NY will never come down due to the costs of doing a background check on every sale.

huntsman
March 17, 2013, 04:57 PM
never, ammo will never be cheaper than it is today because the dollar will continue to lose value.

Highland Ranger
March 17, 2013, 05:04 PM
Valid question.

If past is any indicator they will come down from crazy but still be higher than they were in November of 2012.

I am thinking like 20% higher when the dust settles and that will be in 6 to 12 months provided some other insane person doesn't start the cycle all over again.

mljdeckard
March 17, 2013, 05:05 PM
The new normal is always changing. Prices will go up with inflation and every other commodity. But prices will still be determined my market value.

No one thought that Colt 6920s would be as low as they were before the most recent panic, AFTER the previous panic.

UniversalFrost
March 17, 2013, 05:06 PM
prices will be higher than they were before, but eventually the panic buying will die down and shelves will be stocked...

just like in 2008 and 2010.... each time the craziness died down, but prices were elevated greater than precraziness and they became the new normal price... :banghead: :cuss:

one thing is to save your cash now, because the folks that panic bought and used their credit cards will reach a point where they have to pay the cards and cant unless they sell... then those of us with cash saved will be in a great position to buy guns, ammo and reloading gear for great prices! :neener:

F-111 John
March 17, 2013, 05:07 PM
Well, since ammo prices went skyrocketing and availability went to zero the same month I decided to buy a 9mm handgun becuase "it was cheaper to shoot" than my .38s/.357s, I predict that ammo prices will plumet and availability will return to normal the same month I decide to buy a Dillon press and start reloading.

Queen_of_Thunder
March 17, 2013, 06:21 PM
I doubt the price will ever come down to what it was before the shortage.
There will be a new "normal" price.

I just hope most people that have been constantly crying because they can't find ammo get smart and stock pile a couple years worth of ammo before the next shortage.
It's just not that big a deal to buy a extra box or two once a month, or so, and stick it in the back of the closet.


Although we all know that won't happen.:rolleyes:
Thats fine if you shoot a box or two a month but if you shoot as much as I do that simply is too expensive.

Trung Si
March 17, 2013, 06:52 PM
Never, Once the Dog sucks Egg, he will continue to do so for the rest of his Life!:banghead:

22-rimfire
March 17, 2013, 10:11 PM
Does it matter?

Yes, it matters, but in the sense of the poll, it doesn't really matter as it will be a while before inventory increases and stabilize. Nobody knows when this will happen. As more ammo comes in, it will continue to sell very quickly until people start seeing that there is ammo when they stop at Walmart or where ever the next time. People will again begin to buy what they need, not all they can find or how much money they have in their pocket because they fear there won't be any the next time they visit the store. It will take time, but who knows if it is months or many months?

oneounceload
March 17, 2013, 10:58 PM
With the advent of China and India's rising middle class, and their desire for cars, lead will be in high demand for years, as will rubber, steel and all of the other raw materials. Add a boom in those markets for electronics and other commodities that use a lot of the same components, and prices will stay at this new normal for a while. Add to that the mentality of a lot of folks of "buying whatever they have and all of it", the demand here will not subside until a lot of folks have maxed out their credit cards

481
March 17, 2013, 11:25 PM
Since the 'panic' seems to be directly proportional to the 'shenanigans' in DC, I am not holding my breath.

Barring the passage of some of the proposed legislation, I think it'll take a couple of years for things to calm down.

Takem406
March 17, 2013, 11:39 PM
They went up?

In God and Glock we Trust

dirtykid
March 18, 2013, 09:34 AM
Im already starting to see people list and re-list the same .22LR ammo on various,
online auction/sale sites for things like CCI mini-mag 36grHP for $22 a box of 100

And no-one is buying it either, !!
I'll bet within 30-days things will get caught up and return to normal,
I can already easily find 9MM and .45 ammo at normal prices,in any quantity I want at
our local Fleet-Farm, but I limit myself to a box or two per visit !!

huntsman
March 18, 2013, 10:01 AM
ammo prices have been rising at least since 2000, it may plateau from time to time and you'll get dips and sales but prices were rising again when the insanity hit it.

I've yet to find UMC .380acp for the $9.99 a box (what I paid in 2003) and I can't afford to over pay but I won't be without either.

Believing everything will settle out and prices will be reasonable is not an accurate assumption IMHO so I plan accordingly.

bassdogs
March 18, 2013, 10:17 AM
Valid ? but have no idea so I didn't vote. I know that gas always goes up the week or so before I head out on an RV road trip. Recent Feb trip to Fla is a case in point. As for ammo, my area [w/i 50 miles] Walmarts are still full of empty shelves. Some hunting calibers but no handgun or 22lr to be found. Agree with others though that one day we will wake up and it will be there. Price may be a little higher, but basically what we want will be available in what ever quantities. Just don't buy the conspiracy theory, its just a recurring case of panic buying.

Captains1911
March 18, 2013, 10:46 AM
People seem to forget that this happened about 4 years ago, and prices DID come back down. The more people fuel the panic though (like they are in this thread), the longer it will take.

BulletArc47
March 18, 2013, 11:22 AM
I would say most ammo prices will come down in year's time barring any unforeseen events or the AWB passing.

jrdolall
March 18, 2013, 11:44 AM
.223 will continue to be a problem because of the millions of new guns sold since Sandy Hook. Many of the "new" gun owners were unable to buy much, if any, ammo for their new gun so they will keep the market high and availability low on .223 for a while longer. I see this caliber as being the hardest to recover of the "common" calibers.
.22 should come around fairly quickly but may take a few months more as people, like myself, will hoard a bit extra in case something else happens. I imagine it is the most common round out there and is cheap enough for most anyone to load up on a few extra boxes. We shot 2600 rounds this weekend at the farm because we had beautiful weather and loads of participants. 6 people who had never fired a gun were in attendance.
Most common pistol calibers will be back in fair supply relatively quickly (3 months) because, let's face it, MOST people don't run through 250 rounds of 9mm in a month. I do and I know a lot of people on THR do but we are not the majority of gun owners.

Prices will moderate as soon as retailers see inventory sitting on the shelves. Most of the high prices are driven by retailers and middle men rather than by manufacturers. I say this because I see Walmart and other big box guys with ammo at close to pre-panic prices which tells me that prices at the manufacturer level have not risen greatly. As always the market will dictate the price of this product. Prices always go up because fof component costs, etc but they should moderate fairly quickly.

All bets are off if any meaningful legislation passes regarding AWBs and mag capacity or if there is another mass shooting.

F-111 John
March 18, 2013, 12:02 PM
I've yet to find UMC .380acp for the $9.99 a box (what I paid in 2003)
I think it might be a bit too much to hope for no price increase in ten years. $12-15 per box would be a 20 to 50% increase in a decade.

huntsman
March 18, 2013, 12:32 PM
^ I agree but my response to people saying prices will come down, is what is a fair price? I paid $20.99 for UMC .380acp in 2009 and in 2011 I paid $17.99 I passed on it at $18.99 last year sooo what is a good price? crazy buying has affected availability but $20.00 a box for cheap .380acp is not going to give me the warm and fuzzes even if supply comes back.

Killian
March 18, 2013, 01:04 PM
MOST people don't run through 250 rounds of 9mm in a month. I do and I know a lot of people on THR do but we are not the majority of gun owners.


Most people don't have to shoot 5 boxes in a month to keep 9mm ammo unavailable. All that has to happen is for 9mm to be one of the most commonly owned calibers in the United States, which it is. If every person who owns a 9mm decides to buy half what you are suggesting, 3 boxes, it would still mean 30 million boxes of 9mm would have to be produced to meet demand. 1.5 billion rounds.

I know a lot of people won't be satisfied after all this mess with just buying 3 boxes. Buying 20 boxes or more is where a lot of people are going, I would guess.

Bubbles
March 18, 2013, 01:47 PM
Even when the demand dies, which I don't expect to happen for at least 12 months, prices will be higher than "normal" due to devaluing the dollar / quantitative easing.

ApacheCoTodd
March 18, 2013, 03:45 PM
Already moderating at the Glendale, Arizona show this past weekend. Additionally, a very highly placed wholesaler talked me outa buying recently saying the .05% margins are just around the corner again if folk would just calm down more quickly.

Currently, the manufacturers and wholesalers can't get their feet under them.

As an example - there was .22LR for over a buck a round and 15 bucks a box and both ends f the spectrum were selling at the show.

What's wrong with ammo availability and pricing? Talk to your buddies who're over paying and hoarding outa fear.

1 old 0311-1
March 18, 2013, 03:51 PM
The day AFTER you buy 1000 rounds.

jrdolall
March 18, 2013, 04:43 PM
I just bought 2 cans of 5.45 from AIM Surplus for $.19 per round delivered. I have decided this is my go to round until .223 moderates.

Ignition Override
March 18, 2013, 05:25 PM
Ammo will come down a fair bit when the scalpers finally get nervous, and the public's anxiety 'EGT' (exhaust gas temp) goes below 590* C.

Captains1911
March 18, 2013, 07:20 PM
What I don't understand are the idiots who are paying $1/rd for 22 LR.

justice06rr
March 18, 2013, 09:08 PM
6-12months.

but they won't be as cheap as they used to be. I'm not worried so much of the slightly higher prices, as long as common calibers can be in stock again and available to buy locally.

herkyguy
March 19, 2013, 09:22 AM
herkyguy: Condition Lever to Feather: for Fire, Nacelle Overheat or Visible Fluid Leak.
'Go mechanical', for prop fluct. > .5.

Ammo will come down a fair bit when the scalpers finally get nervous, and the public's anxiety 'EGT' goes below 590* C.
Ahhhh the good ol' days. I have fond memories of the H model.

I'm flying J models now.....with a HUD. I still giggle like a kid when i strap into that bad boy!

the run on .223 sure does make me look forward to the day, if it ever comes, where i can pick up some inexpensive bulk and blow off a few magazines without needing a second mortgage....

Killian
March 19, 2013, 01:33 PM
What I don't understand are the idiots who are paying $1/rd for 22 LR.

Cause your female cousin got robbed and she only has a .22 but no ammo?


Edit: When people are talking casually about using ammo to target shoot with or buying it when hunting season isn't going on, that's one thing. But there are people who actually feel a more pressing need to have ammunition because they have suffered a crime and want self protection.

herkyguy
March 19, 2013, 02:37 PM
Good point. I would absolutely pay way over what I should if it was for my EDC or home defense. thankfully, i'm not in that position......yet.

i would point out though that the high-end self defense rounds are still mostly available at less-inflated prices than the range stuff, which is what i primarily shoot.

Killian
March 19, 2013, 03:06 PM
Good point. I would absolutely pay way over what I should if it was for my EDC or home defense. thankfully, i'm not in that position......yet.


Happened with one of my relatives recently. They purchased a firearm after their incident and before consulting with me. They live some distance away. Now playing catch up to try and find things like magazines and ammunition. Not .22 fortunately.

jrdolall
March 19, 2013, 04:45 PM
I was in a store today that had .22 bricks on display but no price. I buy a lot of ammo and guns here and I asked the guy about it since they usually have big signs when they have a decent deal. A brick of .22 Blazer was $24.99 if you bought a new .22 firearm with a limit of 1 per firearm. If you do not buy a NEW .22 it is $119.99 per brick. They tried several ways to keep ammo for their firearm buyers but kept running out of .22 no matter what they did and some new gun sales were lost because people could not get ammo. He said they had not sold a brick at $119.

I guess that is one way to stop the scalpers.

Ignition Override
March 19, 2013, 05:22 PM
Maybe not many people within a given state check Armslist, or don't want to drive a while to meet the seller/trader.

Some batches of .223 or 7.62x39 ammo has been advertised in Memphis and Jackson for about a week, unless it sold and the ad never gets removed (?).
It is usually about .50/rd., if not more.

The sellers might soon suspect that most people are just going to wait it out.
The problem could be that some sellers might need the cash which they invested in ammo, but others won't need the cash that is tied up, but they might not want to sell at a loss, and will keep it instead.

texgunner
March 19, 2013, 06:43 PM
Ammo prices will come down a bit eventually but not to pre Sandy Hook rates. There will be a new normal.

oneounceload
March 19, 2013, 08:41 PM
I agree but my response to people saying prices will come down, is what is a fair price?

Whatever someone is WILLING to pay - that's a fair price. The ones who seem to whine the most are the ones without the money to pay what has become the fair price of the moment.

hovercat
March 19, 2013, 09:41 PM
Regarding the above post, my Dad gave his watch for a loaf of bread, Poland, 1939.
It will get better, pray that it does not get worse.

mdauben
March 20, 2013, 10:00 AM
Whatever someone is WILLING to pay - that's a fair price. The ones who seem to whine the most are the ones without the money to pay what has become the fair price of the moment.
Don't make assumptions. I have enough disposable income to afford $100 bricks of .22 ammo, but I refuse to pay that price becuase its ridiculous and driven by panic buyers. I'll keep my guns in the safe and go do something else in my spare time until prices are more reasonable.

oneounceload
March 20, 2013, 12:12 PM
SO am I - but are you on here whining about it? There are a lot of folks verbally ranting all the time - they do not understand supply/demand free market economics, how a small business works, or anything a bout global demand for common commodities, yet they cry about wanting everything cheap when they want to buy and high when they want sell.

Regarding the above post, my Dad gave his watch for a loaf of bread, Poland, 1939.
It will get better, pray that it does not get worse.

Sorry to hear that, but obviously, he felt he couldn't eat the watch, so he made a choice - to him, at that moment in time, the watch was equal in value to a loaf of bread

Stranded in a desert, would you rather have 8# of water (about 1 gallon) or 8# of gold? Which is REALLY worth more? There have been times when sugar or salt was worth more than gold - it all depends on the conditions at that moment in time. Right now, ammo is worth more than it was a few months ago. You either determine you don't need any and wait, or you decide you must have it and are WILLING to pay the current asking price

huntsman
March 20, 2013, 03:22 PM
they do not understand supply/demand free market economics, how a small business works, or anything a bout global demand for common commodities, yet they cry about wanting everything cheap when they want to buy and high when they want sell.

Since WWII this free market hasn't had issues with supply in fact that's been the hallmark of our system. Americans don't want to stand inline (unless they chose to) for buying and we don't like empty shelves, so it's understandable that there's some complaining( another American trait). We've all seen the pics of third world people in line to buy TP and bread, when that starts being a reality here you'll see more than whining.

Most people don't handle change well and that's why I believe we see such a poly attitude about the ammo shortages and prices, I do believe we are entering a new phase of our consumerism and things we took for granted are going to be more precious.

I'm not a whiner but a prepper and I've got mine and I suggest the rest of you get yours ASAP

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