Ammunition Bubble timeline and prediction. (Specifically .22lr)


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cpy911
March 21, 2013, 06:02 PM
Hi,
I have been looking at this ammunition price bubble recently. I understand there might be some of you denying we are in one and that the shortage and high costs may continue, that is fine. I respect that. However, I am absolutely certain that we are in a bubble and I am going to predict the timeline for its completion.
I am working off the following image:
http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch7en/conc7en/img/stages_bubble.png

Right now, I believe we are in the greed phase, a subcategory of mania phase. People are buying a $20 brick of .22lr and selling for $70-$80 on Gunbroker.com or other classifieds. The buyers are accepting this reality of price, availability and paying it. That is fine, it is a free market. I am calling this greed phase, with no moral judgement implied. I believe it has taken us about three months to reach this point. Based on this build up, I predict about another 3-4 weeks until we hit the "New Paradigm" of just the fact that you can not get ammo cheap any more. So, I am calling the top in later weeks of April with .22lr going for about $100 a brick at the online classifieds.

Once the top has been reached, we will follow the blow off phase all the way down to $20 brick everywhere including auctions and classifieds, which will take another three months. Once this happens, those flipping and hoarding will see the whole blow off and will ease up on demand. I predict July or August we will see .22lr ammo on the shelves at Wal-mart any day of the week at around $20 a brick.

So, if you can be patient you will be able to get your ammunition at the original price.
I believe we are in a bubble and we have seen many of these throughout history. Smart men have made a lot of money off people and sheared the sheep so to speak.

I am not that smart, so I am sitting this one out.

Cheers.

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22-rimfire
March 21, 2013, 06:16 PM
No idea, but I know you probably put some time into that graph. So it's fun.

I have been sitting this one out since December. That is working on 4 months now. How can I? Easy, I have all I need for regular shooting for years to come unless I sell a bunch. I am short on good target ammo however. But I have more than a case of CCI SV to fill in the gaps. Not using up the better stuff as I would normally do. It is for "sunday go to meeting" purposes only because of the shortage.

Gato MontÚs
March 21, 2013, 06:42 PM
All things must come to an end, ammo shortages included. Mid summer would be nice so I'm hoping that you're right. One thing I hadn't planned on was just how disheartening taking brick after brick of .22 from storage without adding any would be. Years of building a supply not to be touched less a situation like this leaves me with a funny feeling of dread every time I grab the next box.:(

MIgunguy
March 21, 2013, 07:09 PM
nice graph, interesting way of thinking about the current situation... I hope you're right

DeadFlies
March 21, 2013, 07:10 PM
leaves me with a funny feeling of dread every time I grab the next box.:(

Funny, I feel like a millionaire every time I blast through 50-100 rounds of ammo that can't be bought a reasonable prices right now. That's what it's for.

You can't have your cake and eat it too, so I'm happiest with little bits of chocolate and frosting in my beard.

Killian
March 21, 2013, 07:11 PM
Six months minimum, maybe a year for .22LR to become available again. As time goes by and people begin to question if it will ever end, I think prices will go up. I base this on websites reported backorder status. When the prices hit a high enough level that no one will pay them, then they should drop back down. Probably to around $40-$50 for a brick. After all, you are getting 500 rounds in a brick. No one sells 9mm or .45 for $50 per 500. .22 has been cheap the last few years. How much would it take to get 500 9mm? Take $150 or more to get that. People have shown they are willing to pay very high prices. Ammo makers won't forget that. So I would suspect that after quite a while of ammo being unavailable and people paying these high prices, that the price will be higher than it is now once "things get back to normal".

Rembrandt
March 21, 2013, 07:11 PM
Your analysis is OK as far as it goes....but I submit the "unknown event" can and will make your predictions invalid.

The "unknown event" could come in the form of another mass shooting, economic panic, or an asteroid. Twice in the last five years we've seen massive ammo shortages....not a matter of "IF" it will happen, but when. Since the Federal Reserve is printing 85 billion a month, the amount of devalued dollars to purchase the 500 round brick will certainly go up. The price of $100 per brick is firmly entrenched in everyone's mind, the next time this happens we'll see $100+ per brick as the norm.

silicosys4
March 21, 2013, 07:38 PM
Six months minimum, maybe a year for .22LR to become available again. As time goes by and people begin to question if it will ever end, I think prices will go up. I base this on websites reported backorder status. When the prices hit a high enough level that no one will pay them, then they should drop back down. Probably to around $40-$50 for a brick. After all, you are getting 500 rounds in a brick. No one sells 9mm or .45 for $50 per 500. .22 has been cheap the last few years. How much would it take to get 500 9mm? Take $150 or more to get that. People have shown they are willing to pay very high prices. Ammo makers won't forget that. So I would suspect that after quite a while of ammo being unavailable and people paying these high prices, that the price will be higher than it is now once "things get back to normal".


I don't know why people think this way...
I have bought several thousand rounds of .22lr the last three weeks as they appeared on lgs shelves. They were priced at $20/box of 500. These crazy prices are PURELY small distributors and middlemen "fleecing the sheep" (to borrow a phrase) while they have the chance.
The shortages are manmade, and prices WILL come back down to close to if not pre panic prices.

Jim Mac
March 21, 2013, 07:38 PM
I give it a few months. Once supply catches up with demand the bottom will fall out. There is only so many people with deep enough pockets to buy .22 at 50-60 dollars a brick. The guys paying this kind of money is the guy that didnt stock up when it was cheap. I bought a couple thousand rounds at a yard sale last summer for 20 bucks. I sold 3 bricks just because I didnt need it all. Also sold a can or 54R because I wasnt sure if it was light ball or heavy ball and I could still buy it online delivered for cheaper than what people were paying for it locally, go figure that one out? jim

Killian
March 21, 2013, 07:45 PM
Without production figures on how much ammo is produced and imported into the United States, either per day, per month, or per year and a reliable estimate on how many people own .22 firearms and wanting ammo, it's tough to get a firm figure.

Swore I wouldn't do this formula again, but here I go. These are all assumption figures. Actual figures may be more or less for both production and demand.

Assuming 20 million rounds of .22LR is made every day in the US.
You had these selling as bricks so I'll use 500 rounds per brick as a guide.
20 million rounds divided by 500 round bricks equals 40,000 bricks per day.
Divided into the population of the 50 states, you average 800 bricks per day per state.
Assuming Walmart sells only 1 brick per customer (they usually sell 3, but I'll use 1), then 800 people per day in your state get a single brick of .22LR.
I live in Mississippi. Population 2.5 million. 57% firearms ownership, one of the highest in the nation. 1.45 million gun owners (including kids, I know). Figure that 10% of these gun owners own a .22. The real figure is more like 90%. The .22 is probably the MOST popular caliber firearm to own. But I'll use 10% to illustrate this point. 145,000 people thus own a .22 in my state (More like 600,000 or 700,000 would be my actual guess).
At 800 people per day being served with 1 brick of ammo, it will take 181.25 days to get 145,000 .22 owners in my state a single brick of ammo. Around 6 months.

Most other states in the Union have a higher population than Mississippi's 2.5 million. But your state gets the same 800 bricks per day on average of that 20 million round production. I base the figure of 20 million rounds on a .22LR production video that CCI has on youtube, where they mention they can produce 4 million 22 rounds per day. I figure some other companies can do that, some probably not so much. Like I say, these production figures might be really really low. Or they might be high. I'd love it if someone could get an industry report on how much .22LR the US produced and imported in 2011. That would give us some actual numbers.

But considering the fact I used 10% demand in my state, it still looks pretty bleak even if I bump up production from 20 million rounds per day to 100 Million rounds (touches pinky finger to side of mouth a la Dr. Evil) are being produced. Let me run my state again with an estimated 400,000 .22 owners in my state and 100 million rounds per day in the US being produced.

If 100 million rounds are being produced, that's 4000 bricks per state per day.
400,000 people in my state looking for .22 ammo would need 100 days for them to receive 1 brick of 500 rounds on average. So a little more than 3 months. But my state is a small population state. For some of you who have 3 and 4 million people looking for .22 ammo. Well...4 million people, at 4000 bricks per day, would take 1000 days (3 years-ish) for your state to receive enough ammo for 1 brick to each of those 4 million, on average.

We really would need estimated demand and production figures for the whole US...but this ought to give you some idea of where we are.

22-rimfire
March 21, 2013, 07:49 PM
It is going to take a while even if half the buyers said... the shortage is over, the other half would buy all the available 22LR ammo for at least a month or so.

Part of the problem are bulk packs. Many used to think of a brick (10 50-ct boxes) as a fair amount of 22 ammunition. Now, that is ONE bulk pack. There is a psychology behind packaging 22LR ammo in bulk packs and that is sales and cheaper packaging at the factory.

David E
March 21, 2013, 07:49 PM
I predict July or August we will see .22lr ammo on the shelves at Wal-mart any day of the week at around $20 a brick.


July or August? Of what year?

Killian
March 21, 2013, 07:56 PM
I don't know why people think this way...
I have bought several thousand rounds of .22lr the last three weeks as they appeared on lgs shelves.

It's possible you have a schedule that allows you to be there when the shelves are being stocked. Someone 10 minutes or an hour after you may be trying every day and been unsuccessful. You just may be lucky. My conversations with people locally is that .22LR has not been coming in except in very very tiny quantities. Which are bought very quickly.

The reason I think like I do is from crunching some numbers and looking at how many gun owners live in the US. If 40 million people each wanted 1 brick of .22 ammo, that's 20 Billion rounds...for each of them to get a single brick. If you start talking about people buying thousands of rounds each--which seems correct to me, I believe quite a number of people would buy $100--or 5 bricks at old Walmart prices--, right now if they could find it.

There's a big demand right now, and I'm not certain our production is up to meeting it unless we count it in months and years. Days and weeks before this "gets back to normal" seems short sighted to me...based on these calculations

wild cat mccane
March 21, 2013, 08:13 PM
Totally agree.

The NRA, hoarders, the ammo companies, and jerks really are the factors for this ammo shortage.

Queen_of_Thunder
March 21, 2013, 08:29 PM
Hi,
I have been looking at this ammunition price bubble recently. I understand there might be some of you denying we are in one and that the shortage and high costs may continue, that is fine. I respect that. However, I am absolutely certain that we are in a bubble and I am going to predict the timeline for its completion.
I am working off the following image:
http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch7en/conc7en/img/stages_bubble.png

Right now, I believe we are in the greed phase, a subcategory of mania phase. People are buying a $20 brick of .22lr and selling for $70-$80 on Gunbroker.com or other classifieds. The buyers are accepting this reality of price, availability and paying it. That is fine, it is a free market. I am calling this greed phase, with no moral judgement implied. I believe it has taken us about three months to reach this point. Based on this build up, I predict about another 3-4 weeks until we hit the "New Paradigm" of just the fact that you can not get ammo cheap any more. So, I am calling the top in later weeks of April with .22lr going for about $100 a brick at the online classifieds.

Once the top has been reached, we will follow the blow off phase all the way down to $20 brick everywhere including auctions and classifieds, which will take another three months. Once this happens, those flipping and hoarding will see the whole blow off and will ease up on demand. I predict July or August we will see .22lr ammo on the shelves at Wal-mart any day of the week at around $20 a brick.

So, if you can be patient you will be able to get your ammunition at the original price.
I believe we are in a bubble and we have seen many of these throughout history. Smart men have made a lot of money off people and sheared the sheep so to speak.

I am not that smart, so I am sitting this one out.

Cheers.
Your premise is invalid. There is no correlation between the stock market and the price of ammo.

Our prolem is that the mechanics of supply and demand have broken down as a result of outside interference. Those prices you see on gunbroker are real time examples of a product attempting to reach maket equilibrium. Under nomal conditions price increases would bring a market into equilibrium but that is not happening. The price of 22lr is a perfect example. The only way this market (ammo prices and availablity) can return to a state of equilibrium is for the outside disruptive force (politics) to go away.

Now I know some of you are thinking that rising prices can fix this but you would be wrong. Why? Simple. The producer increases the price, the distributers add their markup and the LGS's ont be able to sell the product. This results in fewer distributors and LGS's which reduces competition and raises prices.

Our options are few. Outside of the politics going away or everyone agrees not to purchase ammo for a time period we are stuck in this blackhole of ammo shortages.

David E
March 21, 2013, 09:11 PM
The NRA, hoarders, the ammo companies, and jerks really are the factors for this ammo shortage.

The very vocal anti-gun legislators, to include Obama and Biden, spouting off their goals and intent have nothing to do with any of this, right? :rolleyes:

ID-shooting
March 21, 2013, 09:32 PM
There is no "ammo bubble." I have purchased plenty of 22lr, 223, 9mm, 45acp just this month alone at no higher price than 4 months ago. All there is are scalpers and suckers.

David E
March 21, 2013, 10:40 PM
A couple questions:

1) what are you calling "plenty?"

2) where are you finding this ammo?

3) Has the ammo been in stock regularly? IE; do they have it this second?

Ignition Override
March 21, 2013, 10:52 PM
cpy911: What is the "bull trap" short decrease followed by a short climb?

If prices do return to within 10-20% of normal by July-August, it will be too hot/humid to really enjoy shooting outside, but much better than seeing the flippers continue to help cause the shortage.

When the prices start to drop, won't the large number of flippers and scalper begin to get anxious, and steadily mark prices lower on GB, Armslist etc?
I've seen the same .223, 7.62x39 ammo for several days on Armslist in the Memphis/Nashville areas with the same fixed prices.
But these are mostly local FTF markets if shipping prices are seen as a turn off.

feedthehogs
March 21, 2013, 10:52 PM
No such thing as greed, hoarders or scalpers in a free market.

Only those late to the dance or can't afford a ticket use those words.

cpy911
March 21, 2013, 11:05 PM
cpy911: What is the "bull trap" short decrease followed by a short climb?

If prices do return to within 10-20% of normal by July-August, it will be too hot/humid to really enjoy shooting outside, but much better than seeing the flippers continue to help cause the shortage.

When the prices start to drop, won't the large number of flippers and scalper begin to get anxious, and steadily mark prices lower on GB, Armslist etc?
I've seen the same .223, 7.62x39 ammo for several days on Armslist in the Memphis/Nashville areas with the same fixed prices.
But these are mostly local FTF markets if shipping prices are seen as a turn off.
Bull Trap? My guess is that people think it is going back to the "New Paradigm" again, when it is actually a false rally in price. Again, I am not that smart. YMMV.

cpy911
March 21, 2013, 11:08 PM
Your premise is invalid. There is no correlation between the stock market and the price of ammo.

Our prolem is that the mechanics of supply and demand have broken down as a result of outside interference. Those prices you see on gunbroker are real time examples of a product attempting to reach maket equilibrium. Under nomal conditions price increases would bring a market into equilibrium but that is not happening. The price of 22lr is a perfect example. The only way this market (ammo prices and availablity) can return to a state of equilibrium is for the outside disruptive force (politics) to go away.

Now I know some of you are thinking that rising prices can fix this but you would be wrong. Why? Simple. The producer increases the price, the distributers add their markup and the LGS's ont be able to sell the product. This results in fewer distributors and LGS's which reduces competition and raises prices.

Our options are few. Outside of the politics going away or everyone agrees not to purchase ammo for a time period we are stuck in this blackhole of ammo shortages.
I am not trying to compare to the stock market, rather bubbles. We have had bubbles throughout history and we are having one now. Once people realize the bubble is deflating, watch the bottom fall out. The .22lr bricks will be back to $20 in no time. I still predict we have another month of greed phase to the "New Paradigm" until everyone realizes that .22lr ammo is just that, .22lr that you go plinking with your son on a Saturday afternoon for fun and economy. The people with fear, uncertainty and doubt are that ones who are driving the bubble where the flippers are very willing to help feed the FUD.

I still stand by my time frame of July/August 2013, you will walk into Walmart and buy a $20 brick with no problems.

19-3Ben
March 21, 2013, 11:13 PM
Edit- Deleted. Question asked and answered right before I posted. Mods if you want to delete, that's cool.

wally
March 21, 2013, 11:18 PM
Your graph seems to show return to the mean prices about 2X what they were at the start of the "stealth" phase, which would make about $35/500 the "new normal" :(

Very few if any current "investments" will double in value in this time frame.

cpy911
March 21, 2013, 11:28 PM
Your graph seems to show return to the mean prices about 2X what they were at the start of the "stealth" phase, which would make about $35/500 the "new normal" :(

Very few if any current "investments" will double in value in this time frame.
That graph assumes increase in mean over time. For the short time we have now, I think it will be negliable.

Look at the buyers who did this....
http://www.gunbroker.com/Auction/ViewItem.aspx?Item=333254590

$125 for a brick, which is already passed my $70-$80 estimate, however the average has been $65-$75. I am still calling the top in 3-4 weeks, when the blow off phase starts.

Killian
March 21, 2013, 11:34 PM
Considering the fact that metals--of all kinds--are going up in price, it's a pipe dream to image that the prices are going to go down. That's assuming that ammo wasn't in high demand right now, which it most certainly is.

It's interesting to see how many people are acting like Kevin Bacon in "Animal House". Desperately crying out "All is well! All is wellllll!!!!!", like the mere fact of denial will help to bring about a "return to normal" sooner. If you think you are convincing people that a shortage doesn't exist, and that you are somehow going to get demand to drop faster by making claims you have found tons of ammo somewhere but others aren't finding it, then more likely than not you are creating even MORE desperate behavior from people who got their hopes up, then saw them shattered. They're more likely to rush out and buy something at over inflated prices. It's just tough to convince people that things are fine when everyone who goes to Walmart to buy ammo looks at the shelves and they are empty. Week, after week, after week.

My advice, and it's lousy hypocritical advice because I have some ammo stocked up, is to just wait. If you need ammo because someone threatened your wife, or you have to go to a dangerous city or neighborhood--then pay the overly high price for it. In that situation, you're justified to spend whatever it takes to defend yourself. If you are buying ammo just because you want to go target shoot, or to "keep your skills sharp"--then just sit on your hands and wait. That'll get prices down faster than false statements that don't comport with what everyone in the country is experiencing when they hunt for ammo.

TennJed
March 22, 2013, 12:03 AM
Killian, I understand where you are coming from with your math and ratios, but how do you explain all the 22 ammo that was on the shelves 6 months ago? According to your figures we have not been producing enough ammo to supply the shooters for a very long time

Ignition Override
March 22, 2013, 02:00 AM
feedthehogs: That's correct about the free market.

Fortunately my ammo heap (3,000+ 'Brit' .303, 2,000 8mm etc) was planned, starting in early '08. It's unfortunate that so many others did not prepare a bit more.
My comments were in sympathy for the novices and those who were broke before the so-called bubble happened.

blue32
March 22, 2013, 03:51 AM
Wow, I'm so glad I never got a 22

22-rimfire
March 22, 2013, 04:00 AM
One of my local Walmarts told me that they get ammo in just about every week day morning. But darn if I have ever seen any of these deliveries. The associate told me it sells before it even gets to the display case. Not sure what that means... flippers, ammo hungry shoppers, people camping out at Walmart or showing up at 6:00AM in hopes of finding a bulk pack of 22 ammo?? I don't know.

kyhunter
March 22, 2013, 04:11 AM
22 rimfire. IM good friend with a sporting goods manager, well all the managers at our local walmart. I use to be employed there for quite a while. Heres what happened before the 3 box limit.
-pawn store owners bought the hunting ammo a couple boxes at a time in every caliber as well as hollow point pistol ammo.
-The one gun shop owner (great guy and local pd) could'nt get ammo shipments so he bought the ball pistol and 5.56/7.62 and 12 gauge bulk packs by the shopping cart as well as every .22 bulk pack but left the smaller boxes.

In the gun owner leo's defense he charged the exact same amount it cost him at walmart only added 6% for his taxes. I would gladly pay him before I did walmart.

TylerS
March 22, 2013, 04:25 AM
I disagree we have already hit the paradigm. When bushmater carbon 15s sold for $2700 on gunbroker. Watched it happen. We are heading back to normal. However I agree with the earliest being August.

kyhunter
March 22, 2013, 04:29 AM
I agree tyler just watched two get sold yesterday for 800 NIB. Most of our shops never got over 1500 for your lower end models but theyre definitely in a downward spiral.

meanmrmustard
March 22, 2013, 07:40 AM
The very vocal anti-gun legislators, to include Obama and Biden, spouting off their goals and intent have nothing to do with any of this, right? :rolleyes:
Agreed, and I'll do you one better:

Two Fridays ago, myself and a coworker are in line outside Hazelwood, Mo Cabelas.

We are ninth and tenth in line respectively, at 7:15am with the store due to open at an early 7:30 am in lieu of an ammo shipment. Four black-out Tahoes with Gov plates pull into lot.

Several gentlemen, in plain suits, walk in as we are told to move away from doors. At 7:40am, store is still closed, and everyone outside is ticked off. I'm was confused.

At nearly 8:00am, the gents walk out with Cabelas employees in tow carrying several brown boxes. Upon finally being allowed into the store, there was none of the following:
9
40
45
380
357 sig
223/556
762x39
545
308
243
260 Rem

I do believe, after having just seen it, the stories of "men in black" buying all the ammo before we do is true, true, true.

Luckily I was there for 6.5 Swedish!

kyhunter
March 22, 2013, 07:43 AM
^^ you forreal? i doubt they bought 260,243, or 380 if they were the gubberment

ID-shooting
March 22, 2013, 08:29 AM
A couple questions:

1) what are you calling "plenty?"

2) where are you finding this ammo?

3) Has the ammo been in stock regularly? IE; do they have it this second?
In the month of of March I have purchased roughly 1k in 22lr, 500 223, 300 9mm, 300 45acp, 250 38. Didn't want any 7.62x39 but could if I had.

Mostly Wally Worl, some LGS. May not alway be on the self but I make regular early morning trips to a few different ones. I refuse to pay scalper prices.

iblong
March 22, 2013, 08:39 AM
I shoot IDPA with friend that works for ATK and asked him if they were catching up.He said they were running 3 shifts and falling farther behind every day,and that 22's are the least of there concerns right now.9.40 and 223 are the hot Items and they can not produce them fast enough to meet
there demands or contracts.

David E
March 22, 2013, 08:51 AM
If everyone stopped buying ammo today, it will take 2 yrs for things to return to normal. IE, buy a box or two of any caliber ammo whenever you wanted to.

But folks won't stop buying today, so it's going to be longer than that.

MacTech
March 22, 2013, 08:59 AM
I wonder if part of the demand issues with .22LR is due to perception

A new shooter sees a brick of .22LR and says "WOW,! 500 rounds (or 525 or other bulk box amount) I better get as many as I can!

A gouger sees a brick or bulk box and thinks "I can flip that for big bucks, better buy as many as I can

A shooter with a decent stockpile sees a brick/bulk pack and says "meh, it's only 5xx rounds, I'll wait until the price goes back to normal"

Beentown
March 22, 2013, 09:09 AM
Yes, I believe you a partially correct on the perception of .22lr. I also know of three freeloaders...errr...hustlers that would rather drive around and scalp ammo than work.

ID-shooting
March 22, 2013, 09:22 AM
No such thing as greed, hoarders or scalpers in a free market.

Only those late to the dance or can't afford a ticket use those words.
This is the definition of scalping. Buy at face/retail value, resale in secondary market at gross mark-up to some sucker who will pay it.

We never felt short of supply and have continued to buy, just not at these insane inflated prices. We were not caught behind or failed to see it coming. But I will still call a scalper a scalper.

jrdolall
March 22, 2013, 10:23 AM
I can see that most of this jibes with my thoughts. I am computer challenged so can't make a graph like that though. Cool stuff!
Ammo is available and it is available at pre-panic prices from the larger retailers. We are just accustomed to walking in Walmart or an LGS and buying what we want when we want. Some of us were around in the 70s when the price of gasoline skyrocketed and it was common to have to wait in line to get gas in your car. When was the last time the average person had to wait more than two minutes to get gas? Gas is something most of us absolutely must have. It is much more of a "need" than ammo is for my .22 paper plate shooting.
Manufacturers have not jacked their prices up by 75%. Distributors and small retailers have jacked the prices up because there is increased demand and they can blame the price increase on someone else. The uninformed will understand and pay the price. In a relatively short period of time the demand will fall off and supply will catch up. If I need ammo for SD or HD I will pay whatever I have to pay but I will buy a very limited amount. People buying bricks of .22 at $75 are beyond my comprehension as they can just buy a 50 round box so they "have some on hand" rather than buying 500 rounds.

I shoot a lot of .22 but I was fortunate/lucky/stupid/whatever to purchase a large quantity online in December when I realized that .22 was in trouble. I was caught completely by surprise in regard to .22 availability. I added this to my already considerable stock so I am okay. My group can easily shoot 2500 rounds of .22 in a weekend and last weekend was our first really nice weather where lots of people showed up to shoot. We also shoot a lot of other calibers, pistol and rifle, during our weekends but I have been able to replace everything we shoot at reasonable prices except .22 and .223. 9mm, .45, .380, .38 have all popped up either online or in the stores at pre-panic prices.

As soon as people see that there is actually still ammo available and that there is not going to be any weapons bans then MAYBE we will start seeing some ammo on the shelves a little longer. As of right now the ONLY two calibers I have not been able to buy at near normal prices are .22 and .223. Everything else is very spotty but if you can check Gunbot every 30 minutes you will find what you need. Another "event" and all bets are off.

huntsman
March 22, 2013, 10:53 AM
I don't believe you can have a bubble with a legitimate consumer-able, stocks and beanie babies yeah.

mdauben
March 22, 2013, 11:11 AM
Desperately crying out "All is well! All is wellllll!!!!!", like the mere fact of denial will help to bring about a "return to normal" sooner.
Actually, it would if people would just listen. Most of the current ammo shortage is driven by panic buying, not real need. If people would stop panicing and buying everything in sight at any price they can find it, then prices would soon "return to normal".

breakingcontact
March 22, 2013, 11:12 AM
I bought in the stealth phase and the awareness phase. Haven't bought much since then. I haven't seen 22LR for about 3 months now. Just this morning though, my local Academy had a good amount of 9/40/45/556/308 and was selling an AR15 when I checked out the gun section. Hope it's close to over. Not sure if people are running out of money, reaching saturation or not scared by legislation anymore.

Sheepdog1968
March 22, 2013, 12:49 PM
Friend of mine in Texas that I talked to recently who is retired and spends a fair bit of time in local gun stores is hearing that the store owners are starting to hear of slightly shorter lead times for ammo orders than in the past few months. My fingers are crossed.

MagnumDweeb
March 22, 2013, 01:14 PM
I know scalpers that are starting to get upset because of the prices they can't move their ammo at. They've asked me what I was willing to pay for some 9mm Blazer Brass and I told them eleven bucks, they got upset saying they paid nearly that at Walmart. One of them has over a thousand dollars tied up in ammo he can't sell at the prices he wants to. I've told him add one dollar to what he paid for it and move on since he bought it all from Walmart but he doesn't want to because of the ridiculous sums people were paying him before.

We all just have to sit tight and refuse to pay panic prices. Let scalpers and hustlers get cooked till they give up, sure they'll still make some kind of profit but not the kind that will motivate them to keep gobbling up ammo.

Queen_of_Thunder
March 22, 2013, 02:13 PM
I am not trying to compare to the stock market, rather bubbles. We have had bubbles throughout history and we are having one now. Once people realize the bubble is deflating, watch the bottom fall out. The .22lr bricks will be back to $20 in no time. I still predict we have another month of greed phase to the "New Paradigm" until everyone realizes that .22lr ammo is just that, .22lr that you go plinking with your son on a Saturday afternoon for fun and economy. The people with fear, uncertainty and doubt are that ones who are driving the bubble where the flippers are very willing to help feed the FUD.

I still stand by my time frame of July/August 2013, you will walk into Walmart and buy a $20 brick with no problems.
I disagree that its a bubble. Bubbles are nothing more than price increases on a product thats not experiencing a shortage. What we have is an extraordinary situation where the normal supply/demand process cannot reach equilibrium due to external forces. I'm witnessing changing behaviors in those standing in line just to get their 1 box of ammo per caliber, a max of 3 calibers per perspn per day.
What had started as a couple of people showing up 5-10 minutes before the local Academy opens to people showing up 2hours and 15 minutes prior to opening. Today several people brought family members with them in an effort to acquire more ammo.

Its very possible we have reached a point where we cannot recover to post crises levels in regards to ammo. The entire supply chain is empty. The end user not withstanding the new shooters who continue to enter on the demand side are short and need restocking too. Its been 3 months and any ammo delivery is quickly bought up and as a result the ability to build up stock is impossible.

cpy911
March 22, 2013, 03:23 PM
Queen of Thunder, ok, you can deny it is a bubble, its your right. I hope you are not paying $80 for a box of .22lr because you are getting sheared.

I am 100% certain that we are in a bubble. Demand is being driven by greed (flippers and hoarders) now and we will soon be reaching a blow out phase. Once people realize it is just .22lr ammo, they will stop paying the flipper price and the flipper demand will drop. Flippers will be sitting on excess inventory and will need to pay the bills and eat and let this inventory go for about what they bought it for.

This is a classic bubble. I suggest you read up on the Tulip bubble, Y2K stock bubble, Housing bubble, etc.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ac/Tulip_price_index1.svg/800px-Tulip_price_index1.svg.png

I would respectfully say your thought process is in the denial phase of the paradigm.
I am simply trying to educate people and to start thinking rationally. History is repeating itself.
We are following the Tulip Bubble almost exactly, but shifted by about 376 years and 2-3 months. I am calling our top sometime mid to late April.

breakingcontact
March 22, 2013, 03:34 PM
Ammo and guns aren't going for what they were 6 weeks ago.

Im not saying we will revert to the before times, but absent any new external forces we will reach a new normal where ammo is available although at slightly higher prices.

Problem is how the government can manipulate markets and mess up the whole thing, see ethanol, public employee pensions, bond and financial markets due to "quantitative easing" and about anything else they touch.

Anything "could" happen. Its not likely that the current conditions will last for years.

DON'T FEED THE FLIPPERS!

Ignition Override
March 22, 2013, 03:54 PM
cpy911:

In July '09, did some of you folks check Russian 7.62x39 on Gunbroker?
A single seller in Keene NH had over 45,000 rds. offered, all at the same time.

Once this bubble starts to leak and shrink, we know who will Then be quite anxious.
It will be a race downhill.

cpy911
March 22, 2013, 04:28 PM
cpy911:

In July '09, did some of you folks check Russian 7.62x39 on Gunbroker?
A single seller in Keene NH had over 45,000 rds. offered, all at the same time.

Once this bubble starts to leak and shrink, we know who will Then be quite anxious.
It will be a race downhill.
Agreed, the flippers will be trying to get back what they have into their stash and then they will have to discount a little to break even or take a small loss. If they are burning their new found wealth now, it will make paying the bills really tough.

Hmm, reminds me of the 2008-9 housing bubble.

huntsman
March 22, 2013, 05:02 PM
I disagree that its a bubble. Bubbles are nothing more than price increases on a product thats not experiencing a shortage. What we have is an extraordinary situation where the normal supply/demand process cannot reach equilibrium due to external forces. I'm witnessing changing behaviors in those standing in line just to get their 1 box of ammo per caliber, a max of 3 calibers per perspn per day.
What had started as a couple of people showing up 5-10 minutes before the local Academy opens to people showing up 2hours and 15 minutes prior to opening. Today several people brought family members with them in an effort to acquire more ammo.

Its very possible we have reached a point where we cannot recover to post crises levels in regards to ammo. The entire supply chain is empty. The end user not withstanding the new shooters who continue to enter on the demand side are short and need restocking too. Its been 3 months and any ammo delivery is quickly bought up and as a result the ability to build up stock is impossible.
+100

I guess some find comfort in the past and the hope that we'll return to it but the truth is this country has eclipsed so many fiscal tipping points we don't know what normal will be.

The ammo crisis as painful as it is really isn't broad reaching (in it's affect to the population) with multiple influences affecting the markets trying to predict and end seems futile at best.

radar1972
March 22, 2013, 05:49 PM
My head hurts.

Can't believe this thread is on its third page.

dirtykid
March 22, 2013, 06:03 PM
I see some of the "flippers" getting frustrated,
On my local area's "Armslist" there has been a guy buying ammo from the local Fleet Farm, then trying to add 15-20% and sell it online,
The last ad he posted was,for sale/trade for 22LR ammo for the same 9MM CCI ammo he has been trying to sell for the last 2-weeks, Then the end of the ad is filled with a bunch of jibberish about "dont try and lowball me either,cause if you say your 22LR ammo is worth XX per brick, then my pistol ammo is worth XX per box"

I say let the flippers sit on their inflated price ammo until it comes back to the shelves at normal prices again,

cpy911
March 22, 2013, 06:14 PM
It is only a matter of time now. I still call blow out phase starting in 3-4 weeks.

AlexanderA
March 22, 2013, 06:33 PM
Our prolem is that the mechanics of supply and demand have broken down as a result of outside interference. ..... The only way this market (ammo prices and availablity) can return to a state of equilibrium is for the outside disruptive force (politics) to go away.

Exactly what I was going to say. This market is being driven by outside forces, namely the push for gun control and the panic reaction by gun owners and would-be owners. The crazy market will continue until the push for gun restrictions subsides, and that won't happen until several election cycles pass (if at all). I see shortages and hoarding at least through 2014, and if Hillary is elected President in 2016 (a very good bet), I see another round of panic worse than this one. Long-term, the demographics work against gun ownership. It's very hard to be optimistic.

ATLDave
March 22, 2013, 07:06 PM
I disagree that its a bubble. Bubbles are nothing more than price increases on a product thats not experiencing a shortage.

??? A "shortage" is always needed to fuel bubbles. The "shortage" is often a result of temporary and unsustainable new demand. Crazy behaviors, like standing in line (or taking out mortgages that one cannot possibly make the payments on barring a lottery win), is evidence for, not against, the extistence of a bubble. Unless people are suddenly shooting more, not just buying more, then the supply chain part of the pipeline is getting sucked dry, but the consumer is getting stuffed full. Lots who bought because "better get while the gettin's good" now have more ammo than they will shoot in 3-5 years.

cpy911
March 22, 2013, 07:08 PM
??? A "shortage" is always needed to fuel bubbles. The "shortage" is often a result of temporary and unsustainable new demand. Crazy behaviors, like standing in line (or taking out mortgages that one cannot possibly make the payments on barring a lottery win), is evidence for, not against, the extistence of a bubble. Unless people are suddenly shooting more, not just buying more, then the supply chain part of the pipeline is getting sucked dry, but the consumer is getting stuffed full. Lots who bought because "better get while the gettin's good" now have more ammo than they will shoot in 3-5 years.
Amen brother!

Killian
March 22, 2013, 07:23 PM
Killian, I understand where you are coming from with your math and ratios, but how do you explain all the 22 ammo that was on the shelves 6 months ago? According to your figures we have not been producing enough ammo to supply the shooters for a very long time

That was actually my personal experience for about the last 2 years. Whenever I would go into Walmart to look for .22, it would often be sold out. Eventually I found some, but I *do* believe that our ammo makers were running close to that "edge" of Production Meets Demand. There was some to be had if you waited though. If I didn't find any .22 at Walmart after a couple of visits, it was usually there by my third. So no huge issues. But running so close to that edge meant there was no surplus. "Just in Time" production has been all the rage the last few years. What we are seeing may be one consequence of it.

Because what happened with this current mess is that you don't have 5% of gun owners going down to the store thinking "Hey, maybe I'll go shoot a couple of boxes like I do every three months or so". You've got people that are thinking, "Maybe I better get some of this ammo before the ban goes into effect...and I better do it right now!" All it took then was for this demand increase to be noticed by other shoppers. No one gave a d*** about how much ammo they had at the house until suddenly they realized stores didn't have it. Once stores shelves started to be more empty than full when people walked in, it stopped being 5% looking for ammo and is now 50% or more of the gun owning population thinking they need ammo. And not one or two boxes, but enough to last them for the next 5 years. Since they aren't finding that ammo on the shelves, it's panic time.

To put it in Economics 101 terms, the demand curve shifted. Production seems to have stayed constant, or at least not risen enough to meet the increased demand. So until people stop wanting it--which I think is actually unlikely until they are certain they have what they consider "enough"--or until companies can crank up the production--which also seems unlikely because it would mean massive long term investment in new facilities and costly equipment, all for a potentially short term panic, then I think this is here for the next few months or a year or two.

Some other poster on THR made a great analogy about increased production btw. I was pointing at the screen and mentally high fiving the guy who wrote it when I saw his analogy. He pointed out that when a restaurant is completely full, has a line of people outside, the restaurant doesn't go next door and build a new restaurant to handle a short term overflow. They just max their service and tables and enjoy the business. Perfect analogy.

So I have little faith that production is going to go up. The only way to deal with this is just ride it out. But it does bug me to read some comments about "There is no shortage!" "There's plenty of ammo!" Maybe if you live in middle Alaska and you are the only guy who visits the local "General Store" every six months. Maybe those places are still stocked up. Or maybe your store manager has a brother who owns Federal, or Remington and you get preferential treatment on shipping. But most everyone else--and my own experience from visiting local shops looking for ammo--is that little or none is to be had right now. Doesn't help to try and snow people into believing that what they can see for themselves isn't real. Just suck it up and realize this is going to last a while. If you prepared, good. Sell some of your stock to the desperate if you want, or don't. If you didn't prepare, then wait until prices come back to a more manageable level (even if it is not the SAME level as before) and stock up for next time.

Queen_of_Thunder
March 22, 2013, 08:24 PM
??? A "shortage" is always needed to fuel bubbles. The "shortage" is often a result of temporary and unsustainable new demand. Crazy behaviors, like standing in line (or taking out mortgages that one cannot possibly make the payments on barring a lottery win), is evidence for, not against, the extistence of a bubble. Unless people are suddenly shooting more, not just buying more, then the supply chain part of the pipeline is getting sucked dry, but the consumer is getting stuffed full. Lots who bought because "better get while the gettin's good" now have more ammo than they will shoot in 3-5 years.
There was no shortage in the tech or housing bubbles. Under normal conditions price nrings the supply and demand into equilibrium but that is not happening here.

doc2rn
March 22, 2013, 08:42 PM
I like to shoot but I also know that the small stash I have compared to others on here is small. I have enough to last a year of my regular shooting, but when replacing it becomes a problem I tend to think the problem is with the distribution network. The big chains are getting bulk shipments and the LGS are struggling to get their orders filled. I think we need a more equitable arrangement for distribution.

cpy911
April 17, 2013, 03:38 PM
Well, it is starting to get toward the end of April.

I just did a check on Gunbroker and I see signs of price peaking. I would say the average going rate for a brick of .22lr ammo is $60-$70 on Gunbroker and now I see sellers are starting to offer to pay shipping costs in an effort to keep the sale price stable.

The prices are no longer increasing, but have flattened out. The bubble is no longer blowing up, but remaining stable. How strong and stable is a bubble? Go ask your kids!

I still believe we need until the end of April and part of May to burst the bubble. Once it bursts, it will be overnight phenomenon and prices on Gunbroker will be down to $30 a brick shipped. Once flippers can no longer make 400% by standing in line at their Walmart on ammo delivery day, buy a brick of .22lr for $20 and flip it on Gunbroker for $60, that demand will go away and store shelves will start to show some inventory....

The people paying the $60-$70 prices on Gunbroker are holding the bubble together for the time being, but they will eventually get worn out. Once they balk at rimfire ammo costing more than what I can reload cast .357 Magnum rounds, it will no longer make sense to pay the high price and make more sense to shoot something else.

Cheers!

marv
April 17, 2013, 04:53 PM
This is just a bump in the road.Anyone here besides me remember WWII? Practically overnight ALL U.S. production of everything was diverted to the war effort. Any ammo you had on Dec 7, 1941 had to last you till sometime in 1946. Now That's a shortage.

slamfirev10
April 17, 2013, 06:21 PM
looks like the classic 5th wave break down of a perceived elliot wave

breakingcontact
April 17, 2013, 06:31 PM
This is just a bump in the road.Anyone here besides me remember WWII? Practically overnight ALL U.S. production of everything was diverted to the war effort. Any ammo you had on Dec 7, 1941 had to last you till sometime in 1946. Now That's a shortage.

That's perspective!

Snowdog
April 17, 2013, 06:49 PM
Wait, we're in the "greed" phase?

That means I sold off half my .22LR on GunBroker during the "enthusiam" phase?

Man, was my timing off! Still, my 5000 rounds of Blazer sold for nearly $6/50 so I'm fine with it (especially as I paid what amounts to $1.29 a box for it).

bri
April 17, 2013, 07:45 PM
There's no use trying to convince people with historical example, logic or fact.

If you're willing to pay $100/brick or wait in an early morning line for 3 hours, you'll continue to convince your self that things are not and will not get better. If you didn't, all your money/effort would be for not.

RiverPerson
April 17, 2013, 10:02 PM
I think .22 will be one of the last calibers to recover.

People have seen the prices it goes for during a panic, and will continue to stock up on it when ever they can, due to its affordability (in normal times).

I currently have ~2000 rounds of .22, but plan to at least buy a brick each pay check when it becomes readily available again. Not to resale, just to have it on hand when another panic breaks out.

A guy I know did this before the panic, and I always thought that's a great idea, but never bought much .22, aside from a brick here and there.

I kind of regret that now :o

HighExpert
April 18, 2013, 04:15 PM
We also have a new type of buyer contributing to the shortage. Preppers. There is no better ammo than .22lr for a prepper. It will work for just about anything you might need a bullet for from squirrels to trespassers.

joeschmoe
April 18, 2013, 04:40 PM
lol at the unprepared lashing out. Blaming others for their failure to prepare. Insert baby crying photo here.

cpy911
May 18, 2013, 12:36 AM
Well folks,
The flipping days for .22lr is getting more and more difficult. People are waking up and not feeding the frenzy. I called the top to be May sometime and now we are going to see the gouge prices drop. See my original post on 3/21/2013:

"So, I am calling the top in later weeks of April with .22lr going for about $100 a brick at the online classifieds.

Once the top has been reached, we will follow the blow off phase all the way down to $20 brick everywhere including auctions and classifieds, which will take another three months. Once this happens, those flipping and hoarding will see the whole blow off and will ease up on demand. I predict July or August we will see .22lr ammo on the shelves at Wal-mart any day of the week at around $20 a brick."

The sold items on Gunbroker show proof! This is last 24 hrs of Federal 525 bricks.

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y94/jmortens/federal5-17-2013_zps65af1bcf.jpg (http://s3.photobucket.com/user/jmortens/media/federal5-17-2013_zps65af1bcf.jpg.html)

The flippers are finding it is no longer worth their while so their demand will start to let up.
If I was only smart enough to predict the stock market! I am just a lowly sheep herder's boy.

ColtPythonElite
May 18, 2013, 01:23 AM
I bought a case of .22lr yesterday at pre-panic prices. It was there third case I have bought this year. It wasn't Walmart plinker stuff, though.

Ignition Override
May 18, 2013, 01:46 AM
cpy911:
Either most Gunbroker/Armslist (TN) flippers/resellers are still as delusional as before, or many will soon be forced to compete for cash, and list it at $40-45 instead of $50 or so.

About a month ago on GB it looked as if most .22LR sellers on the first two pages received 0 bids.
Maybe potential buyers finally got the word from their older brothers that the price per round for puny little .22LR should be at most a fraction of the price per rd. for full-power Russian WW2 combat ammo (7.62x54R)?

greyling22
May 18, 2013, 01:55 AM
I dunno. I was at sportsmans warehouse in albuquerque this morning killing some time before a flight. There was a line of at least a hundred people waiting to buy the store allowed max of whatever ammo was on the truck. The cashier guy said it was like that every friday, and that wasn't the whole line. It had gone down since peak time. Apparently they line up outside the store like black friday, waiting to come in. Crazy.

Queen_of_Thunder
May 18, 2013, 10:57 AM
Crazy? No way.

Your choices are: Pay the high prices, Stand in line or do without. Thats it.

As far as an end, well it won't be happening soon. You see most people have forgotten that as a result of the politics the shooting sports has gained a large number of brand new gun owners. These people need ammo.

As far as supply goes it looks like its gotten a little better but deliverys still cannot meet the needs of 50 people let alone thousands in any one area. Purchase limits will be with us for a very, very long time. Remember the entire supply chain has to be restocked right down to you and me and that wll take a very long time especially with the new gun owners who have been added to the "demand side". Then you have to take in the upcoming 2014 primaries and general election, the possible consequences of antigun politicans holding 60 seats in the US Senate and increasing their seats in the US House as a result of those elections , the possibility of another mass shooting and the 2016 general election are what we face
today. The next 3-4 years are going to be rough for us.

TanklessPro
May 18, 2013, 11:32 AM
The shortage is over. I'm seeing all ammo at most local stores, even 22. One local store said have had some 22 on the shelf of over a week. Stop with the crying. I'm tired of seeing these post. If you are low on ammo or crying about prices, it's your own fault. See signature for details.

Stop already.

If it is not in your area yet, just wait it will be there soon. My guess maybe a week or so.

And by the way the bricks that have been sitting over a week we $28. So don't go there.

Queen_of_Thunder
May 18, 2013, 12:16 PM
The shortage is over. I'm seeing all ammo at most local stores, even 22. One local store said have had some 22 on the shelf of over a week. Stop with the crying. I'm tired of seeing these post. If you are low on ammo or crying about prices, it's your own fault. See signature for details.

Stop already.

If it is not in your area yet, just wait it will be there soon. My guess maybe a week or so.

And by the way the bricks that have been sitting over a week we $28. So don't go there.
One delivery does not end a shortage. I don't know how it is in your neck of the woods but ammo except maybe 308 is in short supply here. Ammo deliverys at my local Academy sells out as soon as they hit the shelf and thats with a one box per caliber limit with a 3 caliber per day limit per person. Granted I can walk into one LGS and buy all the 9mm I want @$70 for a box of 50 or at another LGS and pay $35 for a box of 50. Sorry not going to pay that much for 9mm. I'm paying 27 cents a round before taxes at Academy when they manage to get some in but thats 10-12 cents a round more than I could get it before this mess happened. The day you can say the shortage is over is the day you no longer see on Midway and other sites post "out of stock, no backorder " in their ammo listings. Until then the shortage is still in effect.

DeadFlies
May 18, 2013, 01:24 PM
I bought a box (555 rounds) of .22lr a few days ago for $32 (retail) and sold it yesterday for $55. The madness continues. For .22 anyway.

Retail prices of most everything else (9mm specifically) has caught up to secondary-market prices, which have come down. Not much profit to be made on anything but .22 for the most part.

Balrog
May 18, 2013, 02:04 PM
I have been pretty fortunate. I have stumbled upon several large case lots of ammo at various Wal Marts and have been able to persuade the stock people to sell it to me.

You can easily then resell this for 2-3x what you paid. You just need to know how to talk to the people in the sporting goods dept.

The 555 round packs can be sold for more than you are getting, DeadFlies. I would not offer them for sale for less than $75.

Solo
May 18, 2013, 02:09 PM
One of these days, a man in a grey hat and dress is going to smite you for gouging.

Balrog
May 18, 2013, 02:21 PM
One of these days, a man in a grey hat and dress is going to smite you for gouging.

Everything is worth what its purchaser will pay. They all seemed satisfied. They didnt have to buy if they didnt want it.

Ignition Override
May 18, 2013, 02:39 PM
Queen_of_Thunder:
Did last winter's publicity surrounding the politics help create lots of brand-new shooters, or were most of them already waiting to be at the legal age minimum?

DeadFlies
May 18, 2013, 02:44 PM
I have been pretty fortunate. I have stumbled upon several large case lots of ammo at various Wal Marts and have been able to persuade the stock people to sell it to me.

You can easily then resell this for 2-3x what you paid. You just need to know how to talk to the people in the sporting goods dept.

The 555 round packs can be sold for more than you are getting, DeadFlies. I would not offer them for sale for less than $75.
I know I could probably get more but I hate sitting on stuff for too long so I price it to move quickly.

DeadFlies
May 18, 2013, 02:52 PM
One of these days, a man in a grey hat and dress is going to smite you for gouging.

Baloney.

You guys are free to get up at 6AM and go to Wal-Mart to buy stuff at retail prices, just like me. I work hard to scrounge ammo while most guys sit around complaining about shortages and scalpers. You want to sleep late and still pay retail? Good luck with that, comrade.

I recently bought a box of 375 CCI .22lr ammo for $26 at Gander Mountain. I sold it 6 hours later for $35. The guy thanked for for offering it at a such a reasonable price. I provide a service for those who are willing to pay. Everybody wins.

DeadFlies
May 18, 2013, 02:53 PM
I have been pretty fortunate. I have stumbled upon several large case lots of ammo at various Wal Marts and have been able to persuade the stock people to sell it to me.

You can easily then resell this for 2-3x what you paid. You just need to know how to talk to the people in the sporting goods dept.

The 555 round packs can be sold for more than you are getting, DeadFlies. I would not offer them for sale for less than $75.
delete. duplicate post.

Queen_of_Thunder
May 18, 2013, 03:25 PM
Queen_of_Thunder:
Did last winter's publicity surrounding the politics help create lots of brand-new shooters, or were most of them already waiting to be at the legal age minimum?
Politics created a rush of those who wanted guns but always had excuses not to take that trip to the LGS to buy that first gun to finally make the decision to buy. Others like myself who were looking for certain guns to add to the collection sped up the process to acquire them. I wanted a 30-40 Krag, a 4 inch 586, a Glock 20 and a S&W 2 1/2 inch .357 and I quickly acquired them instead of making the purchases of over the course of a year. The result was adding 2 new calibers at a time when ammo was impossible to find. Took me 3 months to find reasonable priced 10mm for the new gun. As for the 30-40 Kra I'm still looking.

Jlr2267
May 18, 2013, 03:47 PM
I have been pretty fortunate. I have stumbled upon several large case lots of ammo at various Wal Marts and have been able to persuade the stock people to sell it to me.


So you're buying ammo from stock clerks at Walmart? That is probably a felony.

ColtPythonElite
May 18, 2013, 03:56 PM
If that Walmart has a limit like most Walmarts do, I hope the employees helping out the profiteer get fired.

Balrog
May 18, 2013, 04:11 PM
So you're buying ammo from stock clerks at Walmart? That is probably a felony.

No, I am buying it from Walmart. But even if it was from the stock clerks, it still would not be a felony.

Jlr2267
May 18, 2013, 04:25 PM
No, I am buying it from Walmart. But even if it was from the stock clerks, it still would not be a felony.

Knowingly buying stolen property is a felony. If a Walmart stock boy told me he had a case of ammo to sell, I would assume it stolen until proven otherwise.

If buying it by the case at Wmart, then no, its not a felony, just a violation of Wmart policy by its employees...a violation that would get them terminated if caught.

TanklessPro
May 18, 2013, 04:33 PM
One delivery does not end a shortage. I don't know how it is in your neck of the woods but ammo except maybe 308 is in short supply here. Ammo deliverys at my local Academy sells out as soon as they hit the shelf and thats with a one box per caliber limit with a 3 caliber per day limit per person. Granted I can walk into one LGS and buy all the 9mm I want @$70 for a box of 50 or at another LGS and pay $35 for a box of 50. Sorry not going to pay that much for 9mm. I'm paying 27 cents a round before taxes at Academy when they manage to get some in but thats 10-12 cents a round more than I could get it before this mess happened. The day you can say the shortage is over is the day you no longer see on Midway and other sites post "out of stock, no backorder " in their ammo listings. Until then the shortage is still in effect.
First, I have never bought ammo online so I will have to trust you on that.

Second I still say to anyone, if you are out of ammo it is your fault and only yours. I have not changed any of my shooting habits at all. Ya'll can keep this going as long as you want to contribute to the problem,I.E. the buying low sell high crap. I have not and will not be part of that but if you do, go ahead.

Queen your idea that one shipment does not mean the shortage is over and I would agree. Does one shipment go to multiple stores that are competing for business. Maybe the"panic" was not as bad in my area (Thank God for Alabama). I don't buy from big box stores unless I happen to walk through while shopping for other stuff. Matter of fact it has been months since i have even walked down their isles. Lets run through the list of the LGS's that I frequent. All of these stores are independent gun shops. All of these were visited last week and this is what they had in stock of memory. Some of the ammo manufacturers maybe wrong, just going off memory. No 308 listed because I don't shoot anything in that caliber.

Store #1(large store prices normally are high)
22-Had over 500 bricks of 525 Federal Champion left from the 1100 bricks they received over a week before $32
5.56- over 300, 500 round cases of Federal XM193 $239
9mm- @150 boxes of blazer brass $17 (another unopened pallet in warehouse)
40- @200 boxes of blazer brass $18 ( more also in warehouse)
45- @200 boxes of blazer brass $23
38- @100 boxes of Remington $22

Store #2(small shop with good prices normally)
22- they don't normally carry and they had none
5.56- @200 cases of 500 Independence? $ 219
9mm- @50 boxes of American eagle $16
40-@30 boxes of American eagle $17
45- @20 boxes of Federal plain box $21

Store #3(small shop normally high prices)
22-@20 boxes of 50 American Eagle $5
9mm- 5-10 boxes of Remington $19
40- 5-10 boxes of Winchester $19
45- 5-10 boxes of American eagle $20
223- 10-20 boxes of 20 off brand? $10

Store #4( prices normally all over the place)
7.62x39- @10, 1000 steel case Tula $279
223- none
9mm- 10-20 boxes $22($15 limit of 3 if you bought a pistol)
40- @5 boxes $22(same deal as 9mm)
45-@20 boxes,more in back $24(no limit)
22-@5 boxes of 50 $10
38- @10 boxes $18(no limit)

Store 5( good prices most of the time)
22- @10 bricks of 525 Federal Auto match $28
9mm- @10 boxes of Remington $18
40-@20 boxes of American Eagle $18
45-@30 boxes of Blazer alum $18
38-@50 boxes of Remington $22
223-@20 boxes of 20 $10, @5 cases of 500 $199

I'm glad to live where I do.

MagnunJoe
May 18, 2013, 04:37 PM
Went to Bass Pro Shops in Ft. Lauderdale today, no "offensive ammo" what so ever. No pistol ammo of any kind. Only shotgun ammo available.

denton
May 18, 2013, 05:25 PM
Ammunition is a commodity. There are no "secret formula" barriers to entering the market.

Commodities have a strong tendency to eventually sell at the marginal price to produce, plus a small profit.

In the short term, prices can run up if people believe that they will not be able to get more. But in the end, competition strongly tends to drive it back down again.

22LR will be $15-20 per brick eventually.

CSG
May 18, 2013, 05:38 PM
A couple of real a-holes in this thread. You know who you are.

Meanwhile, other than deciding to overpay just a little at Widner's for 5 boxes of .380 the other day, the Walmarts around here seem to keep nothing on the shelves but .270 and .30-06 (and shotgun).

Last week, at Sportsman's I bought three boxes of steel case Tula for under $6 a box of 20. Mostly, just because.

I always bought ammo in quantity in the past and don't shoot crazy amounts so except for .380 I was well stocked in the calibers I shoot and have reloading components for the stuff I shoot the most.

Gouging other people and making excuses for it, well...

45_auto
May 18, 2013, 05:53 PM
Store #1(large store prices normally are high)
.....

Store #2(small shop with good prices normally)
.....

Store #3(small shop normally high prices)
.....

Store #4( prices normally all over the place)
.....

Store 5( good prices most of the time)
.......

Why are you afraid to name the stores?

My job takes me through Alabama regularly, between New Orleans and Huntsville. I haven't seen anything like what you're describing. Everyone I know in Alabama is thrashing for ammo just like the rest of the country.

Of course, it's always easier to make claims when you don't have to back them up. My local Wal-Mart has 10 zillion rounds of .22 on the shelf. They give anyone who walks in 10,000 rounds free.

OldMac
May 18, 2013, 06:25 PM
Uh, yes comrad, i do want to be able to sleep late and still pay retail. I want to live in america not russia. I also dont want to stand in line for bread or shoes. I personally do not pay gougers or proffiteers and i refuse to stand in line. That only perpetuates the problem. I shoot what i stocked, reload, or can find at retail. I cleaned out any spare ammo in calibers that i dont shoot to inrease the supply insignificantly. I would never get out of bed early to knowingly go screw somebody and then brag about it? ***.

ColtPythonElite
May 18, 2013, 06:32 PM
Well said, OldMac.

Onward Allusion
May 18, 2013, 07:07 PM
Actually, I don't get to sleep late. I got a regular J O B and other responsibilities. I guess it's too much to ask that I pay regular retail rather than having to bid on lousy 22LR via Gunbroker. It's these AH's that are keeping the stock at the current levels. Run to the damn Wally World or other big boxes every morning to snatch up whatever ammo is available then listing it on GB for a sizeable profit. Supply/demand? Capitalism? Yeah, 'fraid not.

TanklessPro
May 18, 2013, 07:17 PM
Why are you afraid to name the stores?

My job takes me through Alabama regularly, between New Orleans and Huntsville. I haven't seen anything like what you're describing. Everyone I know in Alabama is thrashing for ammo just like the rest of the country.

All of that detail and its just made-up?

Of course, it's always easier to make claims when you don't have to back them up. My local Wal-Mart has 10 zillion rounds of .22 on the shelf. They give anyone who walks in 10,000 rounds free.
I would post them but why? So all of the profiteers can swoop in, buy all of the stock and seek for huge profits, just for surfing on the net? I don't think so. Stop looking at box stores and deal with real LGS and you can find it. If I wanted I could have bought all of it and posted on here and made huge profits but I did not and will not. Life is more than making some pocket change off of others in a panic. :fire:
Some of the things I see people post on here are not very "high road". As a matter of fact this whole shortage thing has put a bad taste in my mouth towards a lot of folk on this site. :barf:
If you were from this area or traveled through much you would know the stores I'm making reference to for the most part. If you don't know that means you don't "travel" the area much. Things have calmed down for the most part here. Why would I want it to get worse again? I may need to buy more ammo in 2-5 years. The local stores have said they are calling letting people know they have ammo and know one is coming to get it.

:mad::mad:
Sorry my tinfoil got stuck on my head again. Your right, ALL the stores are bone dry. Most have moved other stock into the "old" ammo sections because they said they are never going to get ammo in again. Why are we discussing ammo we will never see it in stores again. Our only hope is to meet some shady guy in a dark alley to buy a brick of 22 for $200.:neener:

45_auto
May 18, 2013, 07:23 PM
The local stores have said they are calling letting people know they have ammo and know one is coming to get it.

LMAO!! Good one!

jim243
May 18, 2013, 07:47 PM
I have been pretty fortunate. I have stumbled upon several large case lots of ammo at various Wal Marts and have been able to persuade the stock people to sell it to me.

Profiteering in a time of War is a criminal offense. Paying off the employees so you both can profit from the Black Market (and yes GB is the Black Market) is not only morally wrong but legally wrong, just because no one has slapped cuffs on you does not make it right. So I hope no one will get upset when I call you scum.

Jim

AntiSpin
May 18, 2013, 08:01 PM
The graph appearing in Post #1 in this thread was originally the work of Dr. John Paul Rodrigue of Hofstra University, who was writing about years-long patterns in the investment world, not retail products.

It has since appeared in other investment sites -- with proper attribution -- which I believe should always be the case when posting other people's work.

TanklessPro
May 18, 2013, 08:06 PM
LMAO!! Good one!
I speak the truth. You don't believe me. That fine. I don't care.

You say your stores are bare, what proof do you have? I would say PM me and I would tell you what stores you could get some ammo, but after your post I don't think so.
Good day sir, I hope you enjoy your little "shortage".

johnandersonoutdoors
May 18, 2013, 08:24 PM
OldMac and Colt and maybe a few others,

First of all, some of your threats or comments are not High Road and I am surprised nobody has gotten rid of you on here.

Second, the guys selling 22 at inflated prices are not your enemy. Like they said, they are waking up early and getting ammo at Walmart or other stores. Then reselling it. If it wasn't for them, you wouldn't be getting any 22. You said you don't want to get up early and you still want your ammo. That is comical. The Walmart ammo line at 6:30 am contains some guys who will be reselling and the rest are shooters who would use it and others who want to stash away a bunch for themselves. So, the only people supplying the lazy sleep in guys are the resellers. Because you are not going to walk into any store at noon or 5pm and get anything. Trust me, I am at Walmart at 6:30am and the ammo line is 20 deep.

Even I had a reserve of many boxes purchased at great prices over the last few years. I actually added ammo to the 22 cal market in the last months by selling my personal ammo and giving a couple boxes to friends who needed it, while keeping a couple of boxes to shoot. Now I will stop selling to others and just replace what I sold. So unless you are getting up early you won't beat me. Because I am going to buy the next 40 boxes for my personal stash and you won't get it. Your only hope is for a reseller to beat me to Walmart so he can buy it and resell it to you for higher prices.

I guess the point here is you are gonna need to get up early.

And the ridiculous comparisons to communist Russia are out of place. Even in free market you will find your self waiting in line if you want the product badly enough. Ever see a town devastated by tornado or flood and services disabled? Ever see people waiting in line for clean drinking water? Sounds like you didn't prepare for the current market situation. And I reiterate, the ammo resellers are your friend. Because there are so many guys like us wanting to buy to shoot it weekly or to stash that it is not going to be easily (i.e. see getting up early) available for a while.

johnandersonoutdoors
May 18, 2013, 08:48 PM
Here is a video that examines price gouging ethics.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9QEkw6_O6w


If you believe in the free market, like an American man should, then the ones calling names all over this thread should view the video, admit they are wrong, and apologize.


To stay on topic.....the bubble on 22lr is going to be very long. Literally everyone seems to want 10 or more boxes and they wanted them yesterday.

I called my local Walmart last night to find out what would be in stock this morning and it sounded like a great delivery: 10 boxes Federal 9mm, 20 boxes Federal 40s&w, tula 9mm, and a little more that I didn't care about. I didn't go since I don't need any 9mm but I am sure there were a lot of people in line from 5:45 or 6am til 7:30 when they start selling it.

altitude_19
May 18, 2013, 08:52 PM
"I won't post the stores I claim are splitting at the rafters with ammo, but PM me and I will gladly list them for you post-haste! Why I'll PM the list to you faster than a starving squirrel spring-board leaps onto the last nut on Earth!"
Quit dragging this out and playing "I've got a secret." It's obvious you don't want anyone trying to independently verify your "facts." Think I'd rather PM a mod to police up this shambled thread.

Serenity
May 18, 2013, 08:52 PM
My comments were in sympathy for the novices and those who were broke before the so-called bubble happened.

Count me as a novice who wasn't a shooter during the last "bubble." I thought I had a pretty good stash. :rolleyes:

I had no idea what was coming but I don't resent anyone for it; that's capitalism.

Walkalong
May 18, 2013, 09:04 PM
I reckin' that's enough.

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