Assuming the AWB ends, how long for prices to stabilize?


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rageman
March 15, 2004, 06:52 PM
Just a quick thought before I head off for a midterm:

Assuming the AWB expires (which it better @%@!ing do...), how long do y'all think it will take for market prices for, say, high capacity magazines to stabilize? Do the manufacturers have enough of those "LEO" mags on hand to fill the immediate demand of the general consumer, or do you think we might have to wait a bit for them to tool up and start cranking them out? Personally, I think that it might take a few months, if not for magazines, then definately for all the other fun stuff.

Ah well, its not like I have any money for this stuff anyways...:p

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Zedicus
March 15, 2004, 07:15 PM
I would guess 6 months at the very soonest...

Werewolf
March 15, 2004, 07:35 PM
The AWB will expire but it won't matter about price stabilization. It's looking more and more like Kerry will be the next president and I suspect the Dems might grab back Congress as well. The times, the attitude of the people and the media - all feel to me like it did when Clinton was running for his first term.

When that happens we're all screwed. I'm gonna buy up everything I can after Kerry gets elected but before he takes office.

Clinton bothered me when he won but I knew as a somewhat middle of the roader he wouldn't cause an amount of damage from which the country could not recover.

Kerry on the other hand is a freaking maxed out socialist and one without principles to boot. When he wins - well....

Zedicus
March 15, 2004, 07:42 PM
geez, I Certanly hope your kind of "Optimisem" is'nt contagious...:rolleyes:

WonderNine
March 15, 2004, 08:15 PM
Assuming the AWB expires (which it better @%@!ing do...), how long do y'all think it will take for market prices for, say, high capacity magazines to stabilize?

1 day.

I'll probably be ordering some online on Sept. 15th. They'll be the same prices that LEO's pay, unless some companies try to do a little price gouging to catch the rush, but that won't last.

jobu07
March 15, 2004, 09:05 PM
Wow, people take a look at one poll 8 months before the electiont hat says Kerry is more popular on a couple of issues and think he's the next commander and chief...:rolleyes: Come on man, Bush (as mcuh as we love to hate him sometimes) is one of hte most popular presidents ever and the majority of the people in this great nation support him. Have some faith in the RNC and the American people. He'll get re-elected. Just stand with him.

Werewolf
March 15, 2004, 10:14 PM
Come on man, Bush (as mcuh as we love to hate him sometimes) is one of hte most popular presidents ever and the majority of the people in this great nation support him.

So was his DAD who had popularity ratings in the 70's and 80's. That didn't help him and he pissed all that popularity away. His son is repeating the mistakes of his father. :cuss:

As for the people - they are a fickle group who mostly think with their hearts instead of their heads. Guess what part of the sheople's body Kerry appeals to. He's winning the battle for the hearts of the people right now and I don't see the President doing much to stop it.

Mr. Bush barely won in 2000. All those folks who voted for Gore are going to vote for Kerry in 2004. Add in all those Nader voters of 2000 (8% if I remember right - it may not have been that high but most would agree that Nader cost Gore the presidency) who will say "damn I cost the Dems the election" who will now vote for Kerry and then add to that all those who buy into Kerry's emotional speel about the rich, tax cuts, unemployment, the war in Iraq and Afghanistan, the UN and all the rest of his BS who voted for Bush in 2000 and Bush is driving down losing side of the road. IMHO the way the numbers add up now Kerry will get about 52% to 54% in 2004.

I've only missed picking the winner of the Presidential Elections once since 1968 and that's when I truly figured G. Ford would beat Carter in '76. I hope I'm wrong but at this point I believe that John F. Kerry will be the next President of the USA.

rageman
March 15, 2004, 11:11 PM
WonderNine had this to say about a world ruled by ruthless killer robots:
1 day.

I'll probably be ordering some online on Sept. 15th. They'll be the same prices that LEO's pay, unless some companies try to do a little price gouging to catch the rush, but that won't last.
Well, what about stuff like AR-lowers with folding/collapsible stocks, or even just aftermarket folding stocks for other guns? Obviously some companies have the machinery set up to make these things, so they will be able to start production without having to wait. But if I was running a small company that maybe focused on different parts, I sure as hell wouldn't buy any of the tools neccessary to make them (assuming I didn't already have them) or even start making any until I knew for sure that the ban was going to sunset. What about other stuff-- how many unissued high-cap 10/22 "LEO" magazines do you think there are on the market? What about the AR C-Mags?

I think that all those people who have all the stuff that is currently limited and won't be in high supply right after the ban will still be price gouging some people until the manufacturers are able to get their product to the market.

Werewolf had this vision of the land of wind and spirits:
I'm gonna buy up everything I can after Kerry gets elected but before he takes office.
Pessimistic, yes, but definately a possible outcome. The only answer I really have to this is, well, it takes time for legislation to get passes, even after Kerry takes office. Just because he takes it doesn't mean that at that moment the anti-christ has appeared on earth, and he is ready to kick ass and chew bubblegum, and damnit, he's all out of gum!

MoNsTeR
March 16, 2004, 12:04 PM
Prices will be in serious flux until the political climate becomes clearer. In addition, manufacturers may re-introduce hi-caps at slightly higher prices to take advantage of any pent-up demand that may exist.

It certainly won't cost them anything to tool up, they'll just have to quit stamping hi-caps with LE-only markings and change their retail packaging. And on the rifle side, pre-ban AR-15 upper stuff has always been available to those with pre-ban lowers. The AR market is so fiercely competitive, I predict no price increases on uppers with "evil features".

(As far as the outcome of the upcoming election, I'm surprised at the chances y'all are giving Kerry. I'm no Bush fan, but honestly, he has this election in the bag. Kerry's chances of getting elected are precisely zero.)

RGO
March 16, 2004, 12:51 PM
Just so you know, they don't really HAVE to tool up. Standard caps are already being made for the government market as well as the civilian markets in other countries.

Selfdfenz
March 16, 2004, 02:07 PM
I am following the prices on a few "selected items" and they are already beginning to drop.

Dealers will hold (or sell) depending on their sense of the risk they are up against. I think those that start to sell down now will have less risk and potential loss to deal with. If CDNN is an indicator, they feel the same way.

Call me back in Sept if the $ of most popular high caps isn't already close to what LE pays of this stuff right now. Also, some sellers have been able to get pretty high prices for used hi caps. Convince me why the bottom isn't about to drop out from under the used hi cap mag market? If they can't be sold soon they will be worth next to nothing when new ones are $10-15.

What I am waiting to see is what will happens to the price of firearms.
Some say they will hold or drop slightly. I say they will drop considerably.

IMHO

S-

biere
March 16, 2004, 05:57 PM
Prices will be a problem as long as the person controlling a large percentage of the supply has control.

I expect to see some manufacturers geared up and ready while others are slow to respond.

My biggest fear or worry is that some manufacturers may not sell to the civilian market due to contracts with military or the police. The S&W contract that has been sitting around collecting dust may also be brought out or just the fear of it coming out could be a problem.

I say 6 months for it to become common to want and buy and hold an over 10 round magazine in your hand within one week. 12 months for that to get to one day on a daily basis. This is at a decent price, if you will pay the premium then time becomes a very low factor.

AZLibertarian
March 16, 2004, 10:09 PM
...It's looking more and more like Kerry will be the next president and I suspect the Dems might grab back Congress as well....

Regarding national polls...They are easy for the media to do and for most people to understand--but are absolutely meaningless when it comes to electing a president. We elect our presidents through the Electoral College. Show me a story that has 50 polls which predict the results of the EC count, and I'll pay attention. Until then, what we're seeing is just fluff. I'd have hoped we all learned this back in 2000.

There is absolutely no way that Congress will change hands. The House is solidly Republican, and the D's in the Senate are looking to lose seats.

Bush is certainly not the strongman he was 9 months ago. Of course, many of us here have our noses out of joint with his stance on the AWB. There are also many other reasons not to like the guy. But, IMO Kerry is a far lesser option for lots more reasons.

But to the topic of this thread, the time it takes for prices to stabilize will depend on a lot of things...Who gets elected; Composition of the Two Houses; Any Terror attacks using our favorite toys. IOW, there are too many variables to accurately predict now, IMO. But I'll be watching demand, and will make my purchases before AWB II rears its ugly head.

twoblink
March 17, 2004, 11:45 AM
Kerry on the other hand is a freaking maxed out socialist and one without principles to boot.

Isn't that Hillary's trophy you are talking about and not Kerry's?? I think Billary..er.. I mean Hillary takes the title on that..

carpettbaggerr
March 18, 2004, 03:35 PM
Of course, many of us here have our noses out of joint with his stance on the AWB. I've seen this in several posts where people are upset about Bush't " willingness to extend the AWB" -- did I miss something? I haven't heard him say a word about the ban since before he was elected. And he doesn't seem to be pushing for an extension; his stance seems to be let it expire and forget about it, no?

AZLibertarian
March 18, 2004, 04:25 PM
Carpetbagger,
You do have it exactly backwards. Bush has announced that he'd sign an extension of the AWB--which is one point here that many (most?) of us might use to not vote for him. The Senate recently acted as many had predicted--voting to extend the ban. The issue there was attached as a poison pill to S1805, which dealt with keeping the banners from suing the gun manufacturers out of business. After the AWB extension and other poison pills were attached, the whole thing died (for this session, at least). The House of Representatives is where we will find the most support for letting the AWB expire. Personally, I don't plan on letting my representative have any way of not knowing my position on the AWB. He's already heard from me a number of times, and will get another couple of letters between now and Sept.

As to Bush's stance, I think his heart lies where his Dad's does--for the ban. He is being more shrewd than his Dad (or maybe times have changed), so his support for extending the ban has been tepid, at best. He won't make it a campaign issue for sure (as will no Democrat--they may be liberal, but they're not stupid), but make no mistake--Bush will sign a renewal/extension of the AWB if Congress gives him one.

Vote your conscience--and please don't mistake me--Bush has pissed me off royally regarding his stance on the AWB (among other things). I am a card-carrying libertarian who didn't vote for Bush in '00 or his Dad in '02. But if the election here in AZ is even remotely close come November, I'll be voting for the man this time. Having Kerry in office will be a disaster on so many fronts, that I'll hold my nose to vote for Bush.

2nd Amendment
March 18, 2004, 10:37 PM
I don't know if it is fair to say Bush "supports" the AWB. It appears to me he has been playing very smart politics with a hot-potato since day one. He says prior to the 2000 election that he supports the ban to appeal to sheep and fence-sitters. He knows the House will never allow it to hit his desk barring some total disaster on the gun issue in general. Thus, he gets to pick up votes in his 1st election AND pick up votes in the 2nd while retaining some of those from the first. "Afterall, gun-owners, it did sunset, right? And afterall, sheeple, I did say I'd support it...it just never got to me to sign. Sorry..."

Smart politics. Annoying, nerve-wracking, but smart.

Sam Adams
March 19, 2004, 04:05 PM
I happen to agree with 2nd Amendment about the politics. I'm not happy with that, but I'd rather have a publicly so-so President and good results, than some purist that can't get anything passed because most people won't buy into what he says (even if he's right).

I think the Bush wants this issue to go away, and he's counting on DeLay to do the hard lifting.
________________
Regarding mag prices, I think that the following will happen:

1) The price that you and I can get for selling pre-ban, normal capacity mags will drop as soon as the AWB dies.

2) The price that you and I will pay to get pre-ban, normal capacity mags WON'T drop for 2-4 months for most, then will drop like a rock. For mags in lousy condition that now cost $15-$25 because they are "pre-bans," you may end up paying under $5. For newly produced and for unused (formerly) post-ban mags, the price will probably end up at between $10 and $15 each. I could be (and hope I will be) wrong, since it is possible that some large manufacturers will have a large supply available (especially for AR-15s) and just dump them on the market.

3) For specialized mags (i.e. for limited production guns, especially imports that can't get in even after the AWB dies), you'll be S.O.L. These prices will remain high.

I, for one, will load up on the mags. That's the problem - so will everyone else, on the theory that there could be another AWB in the future and I'm not going to get caught with my pants down again. As such, I'll wait a bit and let the prices drop.

I will, however, hope and pray that several manufacturers make some high quality mags for the 6.5 Grendel. I don't have the scratch right now for the upper (and I hope that there'll be competition there, as well - are you listening, Bushmaster?), but I'll load up on the mags beforehand in case there is a new ban later and we get screwed on the mags.

Dave T
March 20, 2004, 10:38 AM
I couldn't agree more with AZLibertarian on the political side of this thread. As for the cost and availability of full capacity magazines...

I have a student who was complaining about the price (somewhere in the $40 range) of the 8 round magazines for his SIG 220. If you guys think you're going to see $10-$15 full capacity magazines from the major manufacturers I have a gold colored bridge on the West coast I'll sell you. They have seen people willing to pay upwards of $100 for real magazines. I'll bet the average price is going to be somewhere between $30 and $50 for most major brands.

Russ
March 20, 2004, 12:00 PM
Just like gasoline, prices never go down!

Mark Tyson
March 20, 2004, 12:55 PM
I have a student who was complaining about the price (somewhere in the $40 range) of the 8 round magazines for his SIG 220.

They're 52 bucks where I live ... FIFTY TWO DOLLARS FOR ONE STINKING MAGAZINE!!! I don't understand it myself. Pre-ban AR or AK magazines are cheaper.

Anyway the people willing to pay ungodly amounts of cash for banned magazines are not common enough, I think, to keep prices artificially high. They'll make more money by lowering the price and selling to more people.

7.62FullMetalJacket
March 20, 2004, 12:58 PM
The only reason the price of normal capacity mags are high is because there is a limited supply (all mfg'd 10 years ago and stock-piled) and due to a limited supply of holders (cornering the market). Demand will drive new manufacturers to produce once the ban is dead. There is no arch-villain out there capable of quashing new production (except if the government renews the ban). The price of normal capacity magazines will equalize according to supply and demand.

If the current law allows the production, but not the sale, then prices will equalize quickly after 9/14/2004 since manufacturers will gear up and have product ready (ain't capatilism great :D ). If the law prohibits manufacture, then it will take longer because supply will not be produced until 9/14/2004. Even if there is considerable pent-up demand, the market prioce will stabilize quickly for mainstream magazines since the existing supply will be dumped on the market while other manufacturers gear up.

Supply and demand rules.

BrokenArrow
March 20, 2004, 01:10 PM
Comes down to this:

Gore and Nader voters made up more than 50% of the vote last time. How many Gore/Nader voters do you see voting for Bush this time?

Gore lost the south and the gun vote last time and still got more votes, would have won excpet for 97,000 Nader voters in Florida. How many of them do you think will vote for Nader this time?

Hicap mags? The 10 round mags already cost more than the hicaps did in 94!

Just read in GunWeek that mag sales are already in flux. Most hicaps are foreign made, and they had a bad year in 03. Handgun makers are reluctant to order new 10 round mags until this shakes out.

Shouldn't take long at all after it's settled; there are millions of hicaps out there, just have to get em to the USA. ;)

AZLibertarian
March 20, 2004, 01:54 PM
BTW, I'm sure you know, but your moniker has meaning from back in my AF days. :uhoh: Gore and Nader voters made up more than 50% of the vote last time. How many Gore/Nader voters do you see voting for Bush this time?
Gore lost the south and the gun vote last time and still got more votes, would have won excpet for 97,000 Nader voters in Florida. How many of them do you think will vote for Nader this time?
The point regarding "Gore Won the Popular Vote" is completely irrelevant. It doesn't matter how many popular votes he had--only how many Electoral Votes he gets. For example, Utah and West Virginia both have 5 EC votes this year. If Bush wins Utah with a 65% to 35% count, he still only gets 5 EC votes. If West Virginia gives Kerry a slim win of 51%/49%, he still gets all 5 WVa EC votes. The popular vote matters not. In the end, a crushing victory counts the same as a nail-biter.

If your point is that it is unlikely that a Nader voter would support Bush, then I might agree. There is a significant "Anyone But Bush" element out there. Personally, I think this accounts for much of the success that Dean, and now Kerry have enjoyed. I don't think that many D's really like the choice of their party...they just don't like Bush more. IOW, Kerry's support is like Dole's was--A mile wide, but an inch deep. But as with everything political, YMMV.

The media has repeated the point for 4 years now that "The Country is Evenly Divided", which IMO, is just a restatement of "Gore Won the Popular Vote". Maybe someone else has seen a deeper look at the data, but I've never seen if the extra Gore voters came out of states that he was going to win anyway.

Anyway, a Kerry win will guarantee AW and magazine prices will skyrocket!!

7.62FullMetalJacket
March 20, 2004, 02:15 PM
The one factor that everybody seems to forget is that GWB was an unknown at the time and portrayed as a drunken idiot continuing the Bush dynasty. 9/11 changed perceptions about the so-called idiot factor. Not to mention the various shrewd victories he has had even though we may not like some of them. He is seen as an honest guy with character which was unknown at the last election.

Furthermore, Gore had the impetus of the Klinton continuation theme although Gore did all he could to out left the closet leftist.

I think there will be more than a few Ds from the south and west going for GWB. There is nothing you can do about the "anybody but bush gore won the popular vote" crowd. I fail to understand how any thinking person could view a socialist with UN tendencies could serve well in the age of terror.

Winner takes all electoral college shows that the FF had some vision.

GWB wins, Congress remains static or gains Rs, and the AWB sunsets.

My D rep (Matheson) in So. Utah has asked that Kerry not come near him. He barely won the last election and knows a poison pill when he sees one.

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