Will "the panic" end before 2016?


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Balrog
April 14, 2013, 09:01 AM
Do you think the panic will end before Obama leaves office, or are we gonna be stuck with gun/ammo/magazine shortages for 3.5 more years?

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Ryanxia
April 14, 2013, 09:28 AM
It will end well before that. Right now people are buying ammo just to stockpile/hoard, they won't keep it up for much longer. I bet in another 3-6 months depending on the status of importing ammo we'll see it get back to semi-normal.

MrTwigg
April 14, 2013, 09:31 AM
If you think it's bad now, wait till Hillary says she'll run. :eek:

OilyPablo
April 14, 2013, 09:38 AM
If you think it's bad now, wait till Hillary says she'll run.

The press is already drooling for that.

Please don't run another old white fool against her! We need a younger, wiser, sharper..........oh forget it.......she's just the old communist this country needs.

buck460XVR
April 14, 2013, 09:38 AM
The tide appears to have peaked already around here. There is getting to be ammo on shelves, and reloading components and handguns available again. Online retailers seem to have more stock too. I just cancelled an order for bullets from one company that was still four weeks out till shipping. This because I got the same bullets in 4 days from another online retailer. Lady told me when I called it has been happening a lot. Hopefully there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Balrog
April 14, 2013, 09:40 AM
It will end well before that. Right now being are buying ammo just to stockpile/hoard, they won't keep it up for much longer. I bet in another 3-6 months depending on the status of importing ammo we'll see it get back to semi-normal.

Yea, you might be right, that's what they've been saying since 2008.

bri
April 14, 2013, 09:43 AM
I agree, the tide is already turning in my area as well.

Now, proceed to wait for all the posts that will say the end of the world is coming, so they can attempt to justify hoarding, paying ridiculous prices and throwing away countless hours getting up early to wait outside of some big box store to score a box of 9mm.

Ryanxia
April 14, 2013, 09:47 AM
Yea, you might be right, that's what they've been saying since 2008.
Well the shortage hasn't been going on since 2008. It happened once then but for years there has been cases upon cases readily available, this recent shortage has only been going for a few months. In December there was still plenty of every caliber to be had so this isn't a 4 year long crisis.

bri
April 14, 2013, 09:48 AM
Yea, you might be right, that's what they've been saying since 2008.
If things go the same as '09, we'll be good to go.

After things settled down, I purchased a new AR from Spikes for $710 and cases of .223 steel case went back down to $200.

cfullgraf
April 14, 2013, 10:00 AM
Do you think the panic will end before Obama leaves office, or are we gonna be stuck with gun/ammo/magazine shortages for 3.5 more years?

It will depends on what happens in November, 2014.

Kayaker 1960
April 14, 2013, 10:09 AM
A short time after the Aurora, Co. shooting I was at a LGS, looking at a handgun while the owner was telling me that I should buy one of his way over priced AR's before they are banned. I get a mental image of him rubbing his greedy little rat like hands together every time something like that happens. I haven't been back since, I bought the handgun from someone else.

Ryanxia
April 14, 2013, 10:22 AM
Rubbing his hands together like BHO, Feinstein and the media did hours after Sandy Hook?

BearGriz
April 14, 2013, 10:35 AM
I was at a gun show in the Salt Lake City area yesterday and there was a fair amount of ammo still there when I arrived in the afternoon (though no real supply of .22LR that I could see). The prices weren't at pre-panic levels, but they weren't horrific either.

I hope that the market is getting saturated. I want to be able to grab a 525 bulk pack of .22LR if/when I want to and do so at about $20.

DNS
April 14, 2013, 10:40 AM
Nope, no change here but last time we were tail end Charlie for re-supply.

As long as there's a liberal in office I suspect we'll keep having these waves of panic.

InkEd
April 14, 2013, 10:45 AM
It will depend on the AWB votes in the Senate. If everything is struck down before reaching the House of Representatives things will calm down in another 12-18 months. I think it will take that long because of all the backorders that still have to get filled. (I still have some backorders with July or later ETAs for delivery.) Furthermore, it will take a while for people to readjust back to the idea that it will be possible to just get some ammo like normal at the store or place an order online and actually get it delivered quickly.

When the next election rolls around the Democrats will probably run Hillary. She will be a strong candidate and potentially win. If she even gets the nod to run, people should plan to see another shortage of this scale or more. (You know she's a power player when people don't even need to give her last name.) The republican party needs to start searching/grooming a real powerhouse candidate (with widespread appeal) to even stand a chance of winning the election. As of now, I can't think of a REAL challenger to go against Hillary.

Currently, Walmart and Bass Pro are still completely sold out of ammo with ZERO signs of letting up) and LGS still getting FULL panic prices on ammo for the meager quantities available. A small selection of defensive carbines are showing up but priced at MSRP (or better) depending on the brand and store.

The only real positive thing I've seen is that prices appear to have reached their threshold on things and start to slowly come down. However, I would expect to see places maintain a 10-15% increase over the pre-panic prices as the new "normal" price.

gym
April 14, 2013, 11:22 AM
If politics works as usual, they will drop it as an issue, and downplay it, before they get in, then after they get elected, we will find out what they really want.

RP88
April 14, 2013, 11:26 AM
^this is how it usually goes, give or take.

The gun prices will hover around the 10-15% markup simply because of inflation and so on and so forth, and finite supplies for certain guns like Bloc AKs will possibly see those kinds of guns never come down in price at all.

InkEd
April 14, 2013, 11:32 AM
If we could get the Norinco ban lifted, prices and supply would go back to pre-panic conditions in a matter of weeks. Look up the availability and cost of their stuff on some Canadian sites.

JohnnyK
April 14, 2013, 12:28 PM
Nornico and other Chinese ammo is Chinese stuff I wouldn't mind having too much of It can't be any worse than Brown Bear... I just bought a can or 5.45x 39 and plan on buying a can every month or every other month... it's almost cheaper than shooting .22lr now... hopefully the Russian stuff will never be banned.

nathan
April 14, 2013, 12:36 PM
I can only see higher ammo prices as dollar devaluates even further bec of our national debt crisis God knows what. Then theres always the uncertainty in global markets as Iran and Korea looms on the horizon.

The biggest kicker would be Hillary Clinton running for office, and that s even a much bigger hurdle. She is bound to enact more gun control laws (if elected) the likes of her husband.

Whacked
April 14, 2013, 12:37 PM
223/556 is back on shelves locally. still expensive and $1/rnd
AR's on the rack, again a bit more than they were before panic hit.

I think for the most part the panic is over and eventually see the prices drop. probably not to the level they were but a bit more reasonable.

22-rimfire
April 14, 2013, 12:42 PM
The excessive buying can not last, but it will continue for another few months as the people who simply were caught without any or new gun buyers begin to buy ammunition. Remember, they will have direct experience with this current shortage and their buying will reflect that. It's easy for us (me included) to say that I remember 2008 and stocked up... but new shooters have not had the opportunity to do that as of yet.

I still am not convinced that there are a lot of new shooters... just old shooters adding more to the pile.

pat701
April 14, 2013, 12:56 PM
I would say it will get better in 4 months provided no MAJOR gun control laws.

22-rimfire
April 14, 2013, 12:59 PM
If the US passed the NY or CT law nationally, I still see no reason for the ammunition shortage to continue.

PabloJ
April 14, 2013, 01:05 PM
If you think it's bad now, wait till Hillary says she'll run. :eek:
There will be another democrat in the white house, but I do not think it will be HRC.

climbnjump
April 14, 2013, 01:51 PM
I still am not convinced that there are a lot of new shooters... just old shooters adding more to the pile.

Well, that's what the LSM is trying to tell us anyway - it's just us old farts buying up everything - there aren't any new shooters.

I suppose it depends on the definition of "new" but my experience is just the opposite. Spend some time on a Saturday or Sunday hanging around the gun counter of a Cabela's, Gander Mountain, Bass Pro Shop or any other and listen to the talk. While it is hardly a "scientific sample", I hear 2 or 3 newbies at the counter for every experienced person.

A couple of weeks ago at one local range, there was a line of about 20 folks waiting to do the shooting portion of a concealed permit course. Since they were shooting a couple lanes down from me, during one break between students I asked the instructor who he was teaching these days. His reply was that his courses in the past few months have been almost exclusively new - or very inexperienced shooters.

So I think there are quite a few "new" shooters out there. Whether or not they will become "regular" shooters is perhaps an open question...

oldbear
April 14, 2013, 02:23 PM
Do you think the panic will end before Obama leaves office, or are we gonna be stuck with gun/ammo/magazine shortages for 3.5 more years?

It, the panic, really should never should have started, or should have been so short lived it would have been over in a matter of weeks. We the shooting population have no one to blame but ourselves.

mtrmn
April 14, 2013, 02:31 PM
I'm not convinced our economy won't end before 2016......

morcey2
April 14, 2013, 02:39 PM
From my own informal polling of local ammo-selling stores, it looks like things are easing up. I was able to find some 22 LR at a local wal mart at 8:00 AM yesterday morning. Granted, they were remington golden bullet bulk packs, which are my least favorite 22 loads, but they were available. There was still at least one more case of the bulk packs locked under the counter. The WM employee said that there are quite a few less people lining up at 4-5 AM and they've had boxes left over after the line is gone every night.

AR-15 mags are much easier to find. They're not magpul, but troy and a few other mfgs that hold up really well. Prices are still good, only slightly higher than pre-panic prices.

Powder is still a sticking point for me. I did find a pound of Varget a couple of weeks ago, but I still need H4895, H4350, and IMR4064. And trail boss. I have enough Clays to last me for about a year shotshell-wise.

I'm still looking for an upper for my AR, but they're still a little scarce/expensive. I've found quite a few that are sans BCG, which doesn't help a whole lot.

Just my assessment.

Matt

montanaoffroader
April 14, 2013, 02:51 PM
Around here, we never did fully recover from the last panic. Availability and prices did not come back to normal, although it did ease somewhat. It has been rare to find decent numbers of primers in stock locally, and shipping fees are a bit much unless you can buy in bulk.

Now the shelves are really empty. Walked into Big R and the only handgun ammo on the shelf was .25 acp, no .22 at all, and very little rifle ammo. Plenty of shotgun stuff, but not much else.

IMO, things won't really get a whole lot better until after the 2014 elections, IF we do well then. Otherwise, I'm afraid we are in for more of the same. :cuss:

Just my $.02.

Balrog
April 14, 2013, 04:22 PM
For those of you saying the panic is easing up, can you please point me to a website that has 9mm Luger 115g FMJ or 45 ACP 230g FMJ in stock???

Balrog
April 14, 2013, 07:12 PM
Yea, I didn't think anyone could.

morcey2
April 14, 2013, 07:35 PM
Yea, I didn't think anyone could.
And that proves....?

Bianchi?
April 14, 2013, 07:37 PM
As long as the politicians keep threatening further infringement, the panic won't end.

bri
April 14, 2013, 08:00 PM
For those of you saying the panic is easing up, can you please point me to a website that has 9mm Luger 115g FMJ or 45 ACP 230g FMJ in stock???
If I did, I certainly wouldn't blurt it out on THR.

brickeyee
April 14, 2013, 08:22 PM
Depends on if HillBilly runs.

Takem406
April 14, 2013, 08:24 PM
It's already getting better in Montana...

In God and Glock we Trust

Yo Mama
April 14, 2013, 08:24 PM
It's not a panic. It's a lack of supply. The companies are loving it.

It, the panic, really should never should have started, or should have been so short lived it would have been over in a matter of weeks. We the shooting population have no one to blame but ourselves.

The fact that after 2009 major manufacturers didn't increase and tool up is at fault. It's not shooters. I'm so tired of hearing this. You can't expect 1980 manufacturing levels to serve the demand of millions more shooters.

Balrog
April 14, 2013, 08:25 PM
And that proves....?

It proves that people are buying ammo faster than it can be distributed. In other words, Panic On!

Yo Mama
April 14, 2013, 08:33 PM
It proves that people are buying ammo faster than it can be distributed. In other words, Panic On!

http://www.google.com/imgres?q=us+gun+ownership+statistics+by+year&hl=en&sa=X&biw=1366&bih=673&tbm=isch&tbnid=XJ8pKD31phfvVM:&imgrefurl=http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jul/25/gun-ownership-us-data&docid=q7Q7tInSPTAl4M&imgurl=http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/audio/video/2012/7/25/1343236485032/FBI-background-checks-gun-001.jpg&w=460&h=315&ei=aEprUcPLAYOziwLNg4DYDw&zoom=1&ved=1t:3588,r:4,s:0,i:96&iact=rc&dur=5136&page=1&tbnh=186&tbnw=271&start=0&ndsp=15&tx=164&ty=86

http://www.google.com/imgres?q=us+gun+ownership+statistics+by+year&hl=en&sa=X&biw=1366&bih=673&tbm=isch&tbnid=VpYRr1mvPB0jiM:&imgrefurl=http://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/showthread.php%3Ft%3D75301&docid=4ae7ZfCKYNvLkM&imgurl=http://i275.photobucket.com/albums/jj284/Librarian_bucket/gunstock.jpg&w=1024&h=702&ei=aEprUcPLAYOziwLNg4DYDw&zoom=1&ved=1t:3588,r:8,s:0,i:108&iact=rc&dur=461&page=1&tbnh=185&tbnw=270&start=0&ndsp=15&tx=183&ty=42

It's not a panic when you're trying to shoot a gun you buy. It's a panic because manufacturers are not increasing supply. So far Federal is the only plant planning on expanding, should be done by the end of this year. The links are easy to find, showing dramatic increase in gun ownership going through the last 2 decades.

ngnrd
April 14, 2013, 08:36 PM
When will the panic end? I don't know... I sold my crystal ball to buy more ammo.:neener:

Capybara
April 15, 2013, 01:15 AM
If you ar willing to pay stupid prices, plenty of:
115 GR 9mm
http://www.ableammo.com/catalog/geco-pistol-ammunition-2317831-full-metal-jacket-rdbx-p-135940.html
http://www.ableammo.com/catalog/remington-handgun-ammunition-l9mm3-metal-case-1135-rdbx-p-75525.html
http://www.cheaperthandirt.com/product/AMM-4700
http://www.ableammo.com/catalog/federal-cartridge-independence-pistol-ammunition-5250-full-metal-jacket-1080-rdbx-p-75466.html
http://www.the-armory.com/shopsite_sc/store/html/product1269.html

and .45 ACP 230 GR FMJ
http://www.the-armory.com/shopsite_sc/store/html/45_Auto_FMJ_Aguila_Box.html
http://www.ableammo.com/catalog/remington-handgun-ammunition-mega-pack-l45ap4a-metal-case-p-75031.html
http://www.cheaperthandirt.com/product/AMM-5290

Prince Yamato
April 15, 2013, 01:21 AM
If we could get the Norinco ban lifted, prices and supply would go back to pre-panic conditions in a matter of weeks. Look up the availability and cost of their stuff on some Canadian sites.

I was thinking the exact same thing the other day. If China could import ammo, we'd never have another shortage again!

tarosean
April 15, 2013, 01:30 AM
As long as the politicians keep threatening further infringement, the panic won't end.

There has not been one single threat regarding ammunition. IMO as long as people are paying ludicrous prices we will continue to be in this "panic"

JohnsXDM
April 15, 2013, 01:55 AM
[QUOTE=22-rimfire;8871482

I still am not convinced that there are a lot of new shooters... just old shooters adding more to the pile.[/QUOTE]I would not be to sure of that. I'm sure you have heard of the FOID card that we have here in Illinois that is needed to purchase guns and ammo. Applications to the State Police have been hitting record numbers the last 3 months with March having a little over 70,000 alone !! Applications are now taking 60 to 90 days which by state law is to be done in under 30 days !

Ignition Override
April 15, 2013, 02:15 AM
A small, but fairly new gun shop in Hernando MS (south of Memphis) even had some Prvi .303 a few days ago.
A friend paid $20/box. Before the panic, retail was about $15/box. That shop has many types of ammo in small quantities, and before the panic even had some Makarov.

At Saturday's gun show I saw nobody buying ammo from a large selection. That was about 13:00.

Today -online- 7.62x39 was back down to about .32/round, and 7.62x54R at .23/rd. via "Gunbot".
Far cheaper than at the show, even after shipping charges.

boatmanschneider
April 15, 2013, 09:04 AM
I stopped by a gun store Friday and it had over 36 Ar's on the wall. They have had none for a couple since Christmas.

9mm was 80 cents a round though.

Arkansas Paul
April 15, 2013, 09:58 AM
For those of you saying the panic is easing up, can you please point me to a website that has 9mm Luger 115g FMJ or 45 ACP 230g FMJ in stock???

No, I can't, but I can point you to a Wal Mart that does and I can point you to a LGS that does. And the prices are not overly inflated.

Also, on the shelves of that same LGS has quiet a few ARs for under $1k. Three months ago the $700 M&Ps were going for $1500-$2000, so I would say what we have here is a vast improvement.

Online stock will progress slower than local stuff because the entire world has access to it. Local stuff lasts a little longer (not much) because of limited customer base. If you want to find stuff right now, check locally first. You may not be successful at first. You have to keep checking.

mgmorden
April 15, 2013, 10:44 AM
There has not been one single threat regarding ammunition.

As far as getting it at all? No, they haven't threatened to take it completely away, but what HAS been talked about (either federally or in certain states) is:

1) Outlawing internet/mail order ammo sales
2) Microstamping
3) A per-round tax
4) Background checks and/or permits in order to purchase ammunition

Some of that is actually already in place in certain states. While none of that would mean the end of being able to get ammo, it would most certainly shoot the prices through the roof.

TanklessPro
April 15, 2013, 12:21 PM
It's not a panic. It's a lack of supply. The companies are loving it.



The fact that after 2009 major manufacturers didn't increase and tool up is at fault. It's not shooters. I'm so tired of hearing this. You can't expect 1980 manufacturing levels to serve the demand of millions more shooters.
So blame the manufacturers...... Ramp up production so the gov'ment can pass one law that puts them out of business.
Makes a lot of sense.

Yo Mama
April 15, 2013, 12:32 PM
So blame the manufacturers...... Ramp up production so the gov'ment can pass one law that puts them out of business.
Makes a lot of sense.


It's a non sequiter/ Why not just shut them all down? Because the gov can't. If they ramped up production this would all go away.

scotjute
April 15, 2013, 01:38 PM
Hope y'al are right and that the shortage will disappear. My fear is that it will not, particularly with reports coming out the miscellaneous Federal agencies buying billions of rounds of ammo, and Homeland Security ordering several hundred armored vehicles.

Prince Yamato
April 15, 2013, 01:43 PM
LGS have ammo returning to the shelves. Online... not so much. My guess is that Turkey or some country in Eastern Europe will pick up the slack and we'll be well stocked.

mdauben
April 15, 2013, 01:52 PM
If they ramped up production this would all go away.
All indications are that ammo manufacturers are current runing at their maximum capacity, trying to fill orders. To "ramp up" any more would require investing in additional facilities and/or equipment. Since they are not making that investment, the ammo manufactures at least must not feel that the current level of demand will last.

particularly with reports coming out the miscellaneous Federal agencies buying billions of rounds of ammo
I was under the impression that this had pretty well been debunked as a real cause of the current shortage? The hugh number of rounds quoted are multi year options (the gov't has the option to buy X number of rounds per year, up to a maximum of the "billions" numbers that the press is trumpeting). This does not represent actual commitments that the manufacture is already trying to fill, and they don't represent that significant of an increase over annual purchases for the last several years.

Yo Mama
April 15, 2013, 08:20 PM
All indications are that ammo manufacturers are current runing at their maximum capacity, trying to fill orders. To "ramp up" any more would require investing in additional facilities and/or equipment. Since they are not making that investment, the ammo manufactures at least must not feel that the current level of demand will last.


I'm not saying they are not at full capacity. I'm saying they are at a capacity that was fine 20 years ago. Today there are many more shooters. They are not making the investment because they can raise prices and make a huge profit. Current demand is not going away and they know it.

rdhood
April 15, 2013, 09:02 PM
I go into Academy Sports once a week. Today, for the first time since December, there were hi cap magazines for AR-15, AK47, SKS, and a couple dozen pistols, all at near pre-panic prices.


The back of the magazine shortage is broken.

At various internet stores, uppers, lowers, BCGs are all in stock. At Dick's, 10/22s are in stock. This panic is almost over.



Ammo WILL follow.

willroute
April 15, 2013, 10:26 PM
I think the ammo will come back in 3-6 months. It put a hurt on the suppliers when all of their supply was exhausted. It will take some time to ramp back up, but hopefully this idiotic frenzy will subside. I fear that prices may never be the same though.

FROGO207
April 15, 2013, 10:45 PM
IMHO things are coming back a bit already around here. Last Sat I stopped at the LGS nearby they had some 7.62X39, 45 ACP, 9MM, 223/5.56, and 308 in stock. There was a variety of each and many boxes of each sitting on the shelves. Still lacking in SPP and 55 grain FMJ but reloading stuff is better also. Today I called Brownells and ordered some 15 round S&W pistol MAG's, some assorted firing pins and some Ruger parts----all in stock and sent out today.:)

Constrictor
April 15, 2013, 11:41 PM
After the Boston incedent i predict even more people will want to arm up because this world is so evil and the shortage won't end for years.

22-rimfire
April 16, 2013, 12:08 AM
It will end. I just hope that the new shooters "remember" and stock up a bit over a period of time when things get back to normal ammunition-wise. That way when the next shortage hits, there will be fewer who were not adequately prepared at least in the short term.

freewheeling
April 16, 2013, 02:30 AM
I'm spending what money I have on building a weapon, not on ammo. When I get my AR-15 put together I'll start looking for ammo but would rather spend it now on getting a good gun. I also have a few pistols and about 600 rounds of good .22LR and about 300 9mm. I know that's not considered much, but instead of practicing with it much I'm just using Airsoft. First priority is to built a very good highly accurate rifle that could also be used for defense pumping out a lot of rounds. It's about half done, so I need a few more pieces and then I expect to get a really serious yen for some .223 or 5.56 ammo. When things loosen up I'll start competing again... not to win, just to keep the edge. Also going to take some knife defense classes in the mean time. That's always useful and you don't have to spend money on ammo.

freewheeling
April 16, 2013, 02:43 AM
I'm a political scientist so I guess I have a little wisdom in this area and Hillary is way over-billed as a politician. She's really not very good. Her husband made her look good. And she's now old and, frankly, pretty damaged goods. If they can hang Benghazi on anyone they can hang it around Clinton's neck like a noose, and she knows it. That's why she gets a tummy ache.

Someone like Rubio could win. That is, it will have to be some good looking hyphenated American, because that will give women professionals the motive to vote for him to save their jobs. They're aching for someone they con vote for as job protection but still want to feel good about their vote, and they get the tolerance merit badge. And if he's good looking? Well heck, that's got nothing to do with anything, does it?

No the media will be out to kill Rubio (or whoever fits in that slot) so the online news sources are going to have to fight a savvy battle to nullify mainstream media. And they're going to have to get caught in a few blatant lies. And their solidarity is going to have to break. Someone will have to leave the fold and take the opportunity that's waiting, because online media can't do it alone yet.

But I'd say that if they can't get a gun bill past the Senate this time (they'll never get it past the House) then all those aspirations for gun control are dead for the near future. So you want the market to get back to "normal" kill the Senate Bill. Never let it see the light of day.

Mein zwei pfennig.

SKILCZ
April 16, 2013, 02:50 AM
The upside to the panic is that it reminds people about the value of the 2A to Americans. The panic keeps some people from becoming politically complacent.

TheSaint
April 16, 2013, 04:03 AM
SKILCZ,

True. Many more discussions around the dinner table, local watering hold and elsewhere are a good thing. Even out of something bad, can something good be born if we but look for it.

As for the panic buying, my LGS has 9mm and 45acp in stock for about 30% more than pre-panic prices. Still too rich for my tastes, but I"m already stocked up thankfully. I don't think the prices or availability issues will let up completely until well after hopefully all the new legislation is defeated and backorders are filled. To me, that means at least another 3-6 months of this madness. Hang tight folks, it is going to be bumpy for a while longer.

cfullgraf
April 16, 2013, 07:50 AM
I'm not saying they are not at full capacity. I'm saying they are at a capacity that was fine 20 years ago. Today there are many more shooters. They are not making the investment because they can raise prices and make a huge profit. Current demand is not going away and they know it.

The current maximum production capacity of the ammunition makers may have been fine 20 years ago, but it was also fine in September, 2012. I was not hearing about shortages back in September.

Adding large amounts of production capacity is not easy or trivial. Adding shifts, if available, and people are easy but yield only small incremental gains in capacity. There is a start up curve if adding new, untrained workers.

Chances are, the manufacturers did not have much available excess capacity in terms of equipment. It is expensive investments to have sit idle. To add production capacity probably means new building as well as new loading equipment. And, you just cannot just run down to Walmart and buy a new automated loading machine. Deliveries could be very long.

Then, there is the supply of components. Same problem with increasing production as with making more ammunition. Component manufacturers were running at some capacity level and they may not be able to make large increases in short term production.

If I were an executive at a ammunition manufacturer, I'd be buying Prilosec by the case.

bri
April 16, 2013, 08:15 AM
I'm not saying they are not at full capacity. I'm saying they are at a capacity that was fine 20 years ago. Today there are many more shooters. They are not making the investment because they can raise prices and make a huge profit. Current demand is not going away and they know it.
Manufacturers have raised prices?

Yo Mama
April 16, 2013, 09:52 AM
If I were an executive at a ammunition manufacturer, I'd be buying Prilosec by the case.


Now that's funny.

Manufacturers have raised prices?

http://rugerforum.net/ammo-dump/75844-ammo-price-increase-manufacturer.html

Many LGS are reporting this.

mdauben
April 16, 2013, 01:14 PM
I'm not saying they are not at full capacity. I'm saying they are at a capacity that was fine 20 years ago.
It was fine 1 year ago, too. There was no shortage of ammo before the panic that ensued after the CT shooting, when the government started pushing gun control legislation.

They are not making the investment because they can raise prices and make a huge profit.
Except they are not "making a huge profit", other than the fact that they are selling as much ammo as they can make. The fact that some outlets are still selling ammo at "pre-panic" pricing is proof that the manufacturers are not raising prices (at least by any significant percentage). The price increases are all on the retailers and resellers. Once the panic buying ends, prices will go down.

Its not panic, you and many like you remain ignorant of what's taking place, the market "expanded itself" dramatically. As a consequence there has been a correction, and prices are never coming back to what you have convinced yourself is normal.
I disagree with your reasoning. Certainly a lot of the guns sold recently were to "new" gun owners, thus "expanding" the demand for ammo. Most of these purchases, however, where panic purchases. Only a tiny percentage of these "new" gun owners will go on to be dedicated shooting enthusiasts who will provide an ongoing drain on the ammo supply. Most of them will shoot their guns a couple times at most and then store them in a closet and never touch them again.

Certainly, I don't see prices totaly returning to "pre-panic" levels, but that's because prices always increase over time. The current prices are not supported by the actual cost of manufacturing ammo, and if they were to continue someone would step up with more/new manufacturing capacity and undercut those selling at inflated prices, grabbing the market and forcing others to drop their prices to remain competative. That's what the free market is about.

HankR
April 16, 2013, 04:18 PM
cfullgraf: I was not hearing about shortages back in September.

But .22lr was $20 a brick, versus the pre-Obama price of half that


mdauben: Except they are not "making a huge profit" ...The fact that some outlets are still selling ammo at "pre-panic" pricing is proof that the manufacturers are not raising prices (at least by any significant percentage).

Maybe. I also suspect that Walmart et al engage in annual contracts for a certain amount of ammo at a set price throughout the year. (I'm just guessing here). I (half jokingly) accused the LGS owner of buying ammo at Walmart and selling it for double. He denied, and said he's only getting his "normal profit" selling bricks of .22 for $45.

mdauben: if they (high prices) were to continue someone would step up with more/new manufacturing capacity and undercut those selling at inflated prices, grabbing the market and forcing others to drop their prices to remain competative. That's what the free market is about.

But there is a lot of uncertainty in that market (as evidenced by this thread). It takes time to get new production on line. ROI takes even longer. Nobody wants to ramp up just as the prices start to ebb. This is compounded by the extreme government meddling in this particular market and liability issues with this particular product. I'm not surprised that no new production players are entering the market and not terribly surprised that the existing companies don't want to expand for what might be a minor bubble.

That said, I agree with mdauben and others that think it will ebb back towards pre-panic (or pre-whatever) prices. I hope that some of the new gunowners keep shooting, and keep lobbying, even if it means less ammo for the rest of us.

PT92
April 16, 2013, 06:25 PM
Do you think the panic will end before Obama leaves office, or are we gonna be stuck with gun/ammo/magazine shortages for 3.5 more years?
No one can say for sure as it's all conjecture. Problem as I see it is the world (not just our country) is rapidly changing to the point that what was once taken for granted (2A for example) as part of American Tradition and Culture must now be fought for and protected like never before. There are some definite attempts to transform America into a cookie-cut like UN country far different IMO than what our Founding Fathers intended. Naturally Panic ensues but if we work hard to resist the antis assault on our Constitution, we will be successful in curtailing the Panic.

Jason_W
April 16, 2013, 07:52 PM
Ammo will become more available as people max out the amount of cash or credit they can devote to ammo purchases. Prices will come back down a little from their current spike.

however, prices will continue to gradually increase over time. Copper keeps going up as does the cost of energy (required to manufacture and ship ammo). That's all passed on to the consumer.

Ignition Override
April 16, 2013, 08:04 PM
mdauben/fellow shooters:
Yesterday I called the DC office of TN Senator Bob Corker.

When the young staffer confirmed that it was his office, I voiced an opinion against any further gun control laws.
There was no indication that my opinion was even noted.

How do you determine that such a phone call is not wasted?

xwingband
April 16, 2013, 08:06 PM
Talked with the only Walmart clerk I think is not on the take and today they got some 22lr (which he said it's been a while), a case of .223 and 2 cases of 7.62. Another Walmart got 2 cases of .223 and 1 of 7.62. Both had 12ga 00 buckshot too which I haven't seen much of either. I think it's catching up on ammo. It may still be a bit but I think the major backlogs are filling and the trickle will start.

On guns I think it's way closer to done. I've seen loads of "evil" guns and other recently hard to get guns for at MSRP. Not deals, but they're there and not flying off the shelf. They certainly don't sit, but they're not bought immediately by someone in the store when it comes in.

Ignition Override
April 16, 2013, 08:12 PM
xwingband:
Over a week ago there were five ARs in .223 and an AK-74 in a West Point MS pawnshop, on Hwy 45. There were there Friday and the next Monday.
Last Saturday at 1300 we had several ARs at the Germantown gun show, plus a nice Yugo SKS (non-bayo) listed for about $350. There was plenty of ammo but few buyers when I walked past.

There seems to be no actual relationship between much more AR-15/M-4 availability and most ammo prices, a though a small gun shop in Hernando MS has a wide ammo selection and days ago had British .303 at $20/box.

cfullgraf
April 16, 2013, 08:24 PM
Another point to consider about the high, panic prices.

Say before the panic, a small retailer sold one case of ammunition a week or four per month. After the panic started he sells out his weekly supply, one case, in minutes.

But, it takes him another month to receive his next order, which is only one case because supplies are short.

Now, if he left the prices at pre-panic levels, his gross profit is twenty-five percent of pre-panic levels. If his business was tight to begin with, he will have trouble making ends meet and will quickly go out of business.

If he raises prices, and folks still buy his inventory, he can stay in business. He makes the same profit as before on less product.

If he finds another source of ammunition (Walmart, etc), maybe he can stay in business.

We, as consumers, do not have to buy at inflated prices. Our choice.

As the supply catches up with demand or demand recedes back to the level of supply, if the retailer does not lower his prices to be competitive, he will lose money as his inventory will not move.

A simplistic example but should make the point that maybe folks should give the small retailer a little slack.

Hilljun
April 16, 2013, 08:31 PM
I was in north Fl for the winter and was seeing ammo starting to be available (in the gun shops not the retailers) when I left in mid Feb. I am now in south Fl and nothing is available. I go to Bass Pro and might see four pounds of powder on the shelf. Maybe a few boxes of ammo but not the stuff most people want and zero primers. The only bullets they have are the not so common calibers and zero have come in in the two months I have been here. We leave here in May most likely for Ok I can only hope it will be better.

mdauben
April 17, 2013, 10:59 AM
mdauben/fellow shooters:
Yesterday I called the DC office of TN Senator Bob Corker.

When the young staffer confirmed that it was his office, I voiced an opinion against any further gun control laws.
There was no indication that my opinion was even noted.

How do you determine that such a phone call is not wasted?
Call again next week. And the week after. And the week after that. Keep calling. If they continue to ingore you, campaign against them in the next election.

Write paper letters every week. Email their offices every week. Hit the letter generating websites at Ruger, S&W, and Hornaday(?). Hit Popvox and vote your opposition to every piece of federal anti-gun legislation in the Senate and House (which automatically generates an email for each piece of legislation to your Senator or Representative).

Keep the pressure on.

AKElroy
May 9, 2013, 04:41 PM
I'm not saying they are not at full capacity. I'm saying they are at a capacity that was fine 20 years ago. Today there are many more shooters. They are not making the investment because they can raise prices and make a huge profit. Current demand is not going away and they know it.

This is just innacurate. Businesses do not deeply invest in TEMPORARY market moves, especially moves based in panic buying. The heavy equipment alone will have a steep ROI curve, and they could and likely would be left high & dry with idled machines and laid-off employees drawing UIP once the panic subsides. No smart company is going to put themselves in that situation, so the time it takes to produce for the higher temporary demand simply must increase.

As for the additional guns creating higher ammo demand, can you name anyone shooting today as much as they were before the panic? I'm definately not. I'm saving my shot for something living and tasty these days, with just enough target practice to keep the rust off. My clod-busting days are done until we get a reasonable supply curve back. I'm not alone, so I could make a strong case that actual rounds downrange is FAR lower today than before the panic, even with the increase in guns. Supply will even out eventually. Hoarders will run out of money. It's SHOOTERS that establish long-term customers, and ammo co execs are paid good money to ensure their capacity mirrors SHOOTERS needs, not temporary hoarding.

444
May 9, 2013, 10:05 PM
I am shooting as much today as before the panic.


And so are the so-called Hoarders.

justice06rr
May 9, 2013, 10:30 PM
the shortage will definitely end before 2016. Its a "seasonal" thing, if you follow the last shortages/panic. all fueled by fear due to many different factors.

My prediction is that we'll see some type of relief by the end of 2013 or beginning of 2014. Granted there aren't any more violent shootings and no gun laws get passed.

thorazine
May 10, 2013, 05:06 AM
Do you think the panic will end before Obama leaves office, or are we gonna be stuck with gun/ammo/magazine shortages for 3.5 more years?

My crystal ball says...

Plenty of ammunition on the WAL MART shelves to celebrate this upcoming Fourth of July with friends and family.

-and-

Plenty of foolish people who paid $100.00 a box for twenty two bulk packs.

RX-178
May 10, 2013, 06:13 AM
This is just innacurate. Businesses do not deeply invest in TEMPORARY market moves, especially moves based in panic buying. The heavy equipment alone will have a steep ROI curve, and they could and likely would be left high & dry with idled machines and laid-off employees drawing UIP once the panic subsides. No smart company is going to put themselves in that situation, so the time it takes to produce for the higher temporary demand simply must increase.

Remington just announced a $32mil expansion of their ammunition plant in Lonoke, Arkansas.

The expansion won't be complete for another year, and yet they still feel it to be a good investment.

SilentScream
May 10, 2013, 04:14 PM
It will most likely end with any luck by the end of the year; maybe shortly after. What I think you'll see is the high prices hang on a little longer, mainly from folks that panic bought at the height of this madness trying to recoup some of their money, as well as some of your LGS guys trying to squeeze as much money out of their stock as possible.

AKElroy
May 12, 2013, 02:26 PM
444
Member


Join Date: December 26, 2002
Location: Toronto, Ohio
Posts: 7,776
I am shooting as much today as before the panic.


And so are the so-called Hoarders.


You speak for all hoarders? I am an honest 1,000 rd per month shooter, 2/3rds of that rimfire, but an honest 300 center fire round user. I HAVE CUT BACK, as have my shooting buddies. I am not going to drain my own supply, and I am not going to camp at academy. I will cut back for now.

AKElroy
May 12, 2013, 02:30 PM
Remington just announced a $32mil expansion of their ammunition plant in Lonoke, Arkansas.

The expansion won't be complete for another year, and yet they still feel it to be a good investment.

An expansion of this size must have been in the works long before sandy hook. No way they have this specific a plan this soon. It just doesn't work that way. The plan has to be extremely specific for the board to vote. That didn't happen in 4 months.

444
May 12, 2013, 02:36 PM
"You speak for all hoarders? "

Yes, I was hoping you wouldn't bring it up.
We hoarders have a secret society complete with a secret handshake and challenge coin. I was elected, by secret ballot as the PIO/Media guy for the society. I can speak for all hoarders but can't reveal the name of the organization but the name does have the word hoarder in it. We enjoy using the word hoarder and have a monthly challenge to see if we can use the word hoarder ourselves as much as internet gun boards use it.

Yelovitz_503
May 12, 2013, 02:37 PM
Ammo seems to be on the SLIGHT upswing here in OR, although still no 9mm to be found anywhere, but I'm seeing lots of magazines for just above regular prices. Some ammo is still plentiful, I can find 7.62x39 no problem but 5.56 is still limited. A lot of places have limits of 100 rounds per caliber, per day. Honestly I think it'll blow over, people can't stay this worked up about something (even if it's important) for this long, we just nationally don't have the attention span for it. But yes, if Hillary makes a run in 2016 all bets are off when it comes to this stuff getting back to normal. Fingers crossed that she decides to go screw up the private sector instead!

Kiln
May 12, 2013, 02:46 PM
"You speak for all hoarders? "

Yes, I was hoping you wouldn't bring it up.
We hoarders have a secret society complete with a secret handshake and challenge coin. I was elected, by secret ballot as the PIO/Media guy for the society. I can speak for all hoarders but can't reveal the name of the organization but the name does have the word hoarder in it. We enjoy using the word hoarder and have a monthly challenge to see if we can use the word hoarder ourselves as much as internet gun boards use it.
Lmao.

CharlieDeltaJuliet
May 12, 2013, 03:19 PM
@Balrog, sign up for notifications from Midway USA and frequently check sites like www.slickdeals.net(use the search feature in the upper right, for ammo). I have bought about 500 9mm(was almost out) 200 .45ACP(still have a few hundred) and 6000(5k SK/Lapua & 1000 Federal Target) .22lr(was getting low on it). All of the prices were very reasonable.

I am lucky that a LGS near me has most of the reloading components I use. Just bought 1000 Magnum Match primers and 8lbs of H1000. I did however have to order the 220gr. SMK from Brownells.

Things are better than they were a couple of months ago, but I still have problems finding 5.56 at a decent price. That is the only ammo I still see at LGS that are ridiculously priced.

RX-178
May 12, 2013, 07:23 PM
An expansion of this size must have been in the works long before sandy hook. No way they have this specific a plan this soon. It just doesn't work that way. The plan has to be extremely specific for the board to vote. That didn't happen in 4 months.

No argument. That assessment is completely correct. But it STILL indicates a legitimate belief among ammunition producers that the demand for their product is greater than it was.

browneu
May 12, 2013, 08:02 PM
I don't believe it will end until after the 2014 elections. The panic will worsen if anti-gunners take the house.



Sent from my SGH-T999 using Tapatalk 2

AKElroy
May 12, 2013, 08:34 PM
We hoarders have a secret society complete with a secret handshake and challenge coin. I was elected, by secret ballot as the PIO/Media guy for the society. I can speak for all hoarders but can't reveal the name of the organization but the name does have the word hoarder in it. We enjoy using the word hoarder and have a monthly challenge to see if we can use the word hoarder ourselves as much as internet gun boards use it.

If all hoarders are this funny, I will reject my former arguments and request my secret decoder ring in the hoarder of the month club!

444
May 12, 2013, 08:41 PM
Before you do anything rash: just know that the decoder rings are on back order.

We are looking at a six month delivery time and even then they go only to the top tier members. But once you get one, you go to the front of the line at Walmart.

Warp
May 12, 2013, 08:52 PM
I remember when people swore up and down that the panic following the 2008 elections wouldn't end by the 2012 elections. And beyond, if Obama got elected again.

Boy, were they wrong.

I see the same thing happening this time, to people silly enough to proclaim that the panic will last four years.

AKElroy
May 12, 2013, 08:56 PM
Before you do anything rash: just know that the decoder rings are on back order.

We are looking at a six month delivery time and even then they go only to the top tier members. But once you get one, you go to the front of the line at Walmart.

Good to know. Since .30-30 is now impossible to find, maybe I should sell my 3 thutty thuttys and go for a .444. I see plenty of that, and it is clearly a far superior cartridge. Will that shameless pandering move me up the list?

Walkalong
May 12, 2013, 09:44 PM
Before 2016? Absolutely.

mljdeckard
May 12, 2013, 09:47 PM
I'm sure all of the manufacturers would LOVE it if we would overwhelm them with demand for years at a time, but it won't work that way.

Deaf Smith
May 12, 2013, 10:19 PM
Do you think the panic will end before Obama leaves office, or are we gonna be stuck with gun/ammo/magazine shortages for 3.5 more years?
Right now President Obama is close to becoming a discredited lame duck.

Even youths are now starting to question his integrity and smarts.

I see his ability to do anything severely hampered.

Expect Obamacare to be repealed.
Benghazi will turn out to show Obama was the one to order the stand down.
And Rahm ordered the IRS to audit the Tea Party at Obama's behest.
And Fast&Furious was a guncontrol shtick they cooked up that failed.

Deaf

mljdeckard
May 12, 2013, 10:45 PM
We are all entitled to hope. But I don't think anyone who loves him will care. No majority in the senate means no successful impeachment, we are back to 1998.

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