Understanding The Ammo Shortage


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Alizard
April 19, 2013, 04:32 PM
The "disappearing ammo phenomenon" has a huge psychological component to it, and it involves the way people react to a shortage (panic) and even how their long term behavior changes.

This is a true story I lived through and it illustrates how a shortage can be created even when none exists.... and why.

I started work at Fairchild Semiconductor three decades ago. There was a common equipment room where all the company electronics equipment was stored: oscilloscopes, signal generators, meters, etc. And as would be obvious, every piece of equipment had an AC power cord with it that plugged in the back and let you plug it in and use it.

One day, the idiot who ran the equipment room decided that the equipment should go on the shelves and the AC cords should hang on the wall.... but there were several different styles of AC cords (USA, european, non standard).

So each time somebody wandered into the equipment room and grabbed a piece of equipmenet, he had to hunt for a cord.

THE "SOLUTION":

People started keeping cords in their desks. So whenever they carried a piece of equipment back, they were "secure" in the knowledge they had the right cord and wouldn't have to search through the ones in the equipment room.

Instantly a shortage was created: every piece of equipment had a cord.... but now every engineer had five of them stockpiled in his desk. Within a short time, cords became scarce and everybody was complaining that we needed to buy more cords.... when in fact, there were plenty of cords.

The point is: anytime people's "equilibrium" is upset they react and often in stupid ways. In the case of the ammo shortage, people who used to keep a few boxes of ammo on hand are now scrambling to acquire thousands to keep and "feel secure". This means the demand for ammo has been suddenly (and artificially) increased well beyond the actual consumption level and the supply system in place is not sized to provide that much ammo.

You also have gougers buying up all the ammo they can to scalp it on Craig's list and make money which further increases demand.

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MErl
April 19, 2013, 05:47 PM
There is a difference between ammo and your example, ammo is consumable.

The people in your example that got a few boxes on the way to the range and now need 1k to be safe, they are the retail baseline load. What happens to that load, the boxes at gun stores or walmart, when they now have a 5 year supply. Will that change be enough that stores cut back on what they bother to stock?

This disruption can ring around for a long time in unstable ways.

commygun
April 19, 2013, 06:50 PM
I think part of the problem is that ammo has now proven it's value as an alt-currency/investment in the event of future (and inevitable) panics. This proven value is going to prolong the shortage. It's no longer just about shooting in many, many people's minds.

Vern Humphrey
April 19, 2013, 06:54 PM
I just bought a 99 Savage in .308. I don't have any other rifles in .308, so I need ammo, brass and dies.

I ordered dies from Midway USA -- and they're backordered. I went to my local Wal Mart, and they have no .308 -- the clerk tells me when a truck comes in with ammo, customers are lined up 60-deep at the counter.

No need to postulate plots or nefarious government schemes -- we, the gun-owning public are in a panic buying mode.

PlaneJain
April 19, 2013, 07:00 PM
Until there is no more stories in the news of my federal government and individual states trying to tear down our rights to firearms, I will continue to buy, and buy some more. Until I am satisfied that my shooting style will last my lifetime.

BSA1
April 19, 2013, 07:08 PM
I fail to see the point of your comparison.

Power cords are not gaurranted in The Bill of Rights. Many Americans realize that the 2A is the lynchpin that holds all of the other Amendments and rights in place.

While you may not have taken the American Caesar Obama declaration of war on gun owners seriously many Americans have and the Liberals have certainly have taken notice

Vern Humphrey
April 19, 2013, 07:11 PM
Until there is no more stories in the news of my federal government and individual states trying to tear down our rights to firearms, I will continue to buy, and buy some more. Until I am satisfied that my shooting style will last my lifetime.
Good luck -- I just located and snapped up 10 boxes of .308 bullets -- buty had to go to several sites to find them.

12many
April 19, 2013, 07:16 PM
Ammo is available it just cost more than people want to pay. Plus, a bunch of people are sitting on a bunch of ammo. Many pPeople are not shooting what they are buying.

TargetsportsUSA has .223 and so does ammoman. Go to slickguns.com.

It just costs more than people want to pay. But, prices are dropping.

we are not amused
April 19, 2013, 07:36 PM
You are both right, but I don't think most of the ammunition now being bought is for consumption anytime soon, it's for "just in case".

It may get interesting when the panic is over. What will the idiots with a ten year supply do with it? Not buy any for ten years, or dump it at gun shows and Craig's list?

Might be some really good deals out there.

I have not bought any ammunition since the New Town Shooting, and have just about shot up all of my expendable supply. When it is gone, I will restrict my shooting only to what I need to stay proficient with my concealed carry and hunting needs. Unless of course, the run on ammunition is over, and I can buy at reasonable prices again.

mrvco
April 19, 2013, 07:41 PM
Ammo is available it just cost more than people want to pay. Plus, a bunch of people are sitting on a bunch of ammo. Many pPeople are not shooting what they are buying.

TargetsportsUSA has .223 and so does ammoman. Go to slickguns.com.

It just costs more than people want to pay. But, prices are dropping.
I concur.

Several of my LGS's have PLENTY of ammo on hand, albeit at prices that keeps it from selling very quickly (if at all). I think the other LGS's that don't have ammo seem to be those that don't want to take the heat from people accusing them of price gouging.

12many
April 19, 2013, 07:46 PM
As someone posted earlier, some people are sitting on a lot and are either going to sell or not have to buy for along time. This could create a glut or reduce of demand. Remindes me of the housing boom/bust.

OilyPablo
April 19, 2013, 07:47 PM
Bottom line: supply chain could not even come close to keeping up with demand. I have zero evidence of this, but I doubt manufacturers added any equipment or lines. Some I know added shifts and personnel. They probably did not think the demand would stay at the nearly log rate (yeah I know it wasn't logarithmic, but it was large) - maybe if it keeps up for 12 months they will expand with capital improvements. From bullets to primers to complete ammo, the supply chain maxed out.

Gottahaveone
April 19, 2013, 07:58 PM
It may get interesting when the panic is over. What will the idiots with a ten year supply do with it? Not buy any for ten years, or dump it at gun shows and Craig's list?

Might be some really good deals out there.


Not gonna happen. People were saying exactly the same thing about all the AR's being bought during the 2008 election panic and how there were going to be ton's of them for sale cheap when the credit card bills started coming due. Those "deals" never materialized, the cost of new AR's settled back down, and we added a whole lot of new gun owners to our ranks.

I expect these are some of the same people buying ammo now, and they are going to do the same thing with all that ammo that they did with their new AR's. Put it in a closet somewhere and leave it....

we are not amused
April 19, 2013, 08:14 PM
Not gonna happen. People were saying exactly the same thing about all the AR's being bought during the 2008 election panic and how there were going to be ton's of them for sale cheap when the credit card bills started coming due. Those "deals" never materialized, the cost of new AR's settled back down, and we added a whole lot of new gun owners to our ranks.

I expect these are some of the same people buying ammo now, and they are going to do the same thing with all that ammo that they did with their new AR's. Put it in a closet somewhere and leave it....
Oh, I don't know about that. There were a lot of very good deals on AR's before the New Town shooting, and some day that ammo is going to come out of the closets. Maybe at garage sales or gun shows. I remember seeing a lot of private sellers at gun shows with AR's for sale wandering around looking for buyers. They have started showing back up the last few guns shows, I've attended.

In fact, there is a show in Wichita tomorrow, thought I would attend just to see what prices are.

ridgerunner1965
April 19, 2013, 09:37 PM
to be honest, i havent got a real good deal on a gun since late 07.but then it not like i need any more to add to the ones i got now.

Ken70
April 19, 2013, 11:21 PM
30 years ago in the USSR, most everything was in short supply. So when something actually was in stock, you bought as much as you could carry. That might be 5 times what you could use in the near term, but you didn't know when it might be available again. So you bought, just like everybody else. So there were shortages because the supply was in storage at somebodies house. Toilet paper was a common item this happened with.

Alizard
April 20, 2013, 02:28 AM
It may get interesting when the panic is over. What will the idiots with a ten year supply do with it? Not buy any for ten years, or dump it at gun shows and Craig's list?

Might be some really good deals out there.Keen observation. Speaking of good deals.... after the federal AWB expired, I bought a truckload of FACTORY ten round magazines for SIG, Glock, Springfield XD, Beretta for about $8 each. Those are the factory mags that previously sold for $35 - $40. Once the AWB expired, all those ten round magazines were suddenly about worthless and the manufacturers dumped them.

Since ten round is the max here in cali, I was tickled to get such a generous windfall for my magazine supply.

Queen_of_Thunder
April 20, 2013, 09:17 AM
The source of the ammo shortage was simply a surge in demand by new gun owners. I'm guessing somewhere in the range of 5 million new gun owners. This increased demand to the point shortages developed. Add to that the experiences of past shortages current gun owners had experienced and you get a demand that cannot be sastified.

Now many blame others for the shortages instead of looking at the facts. In fact you should be thanking those "gougers,flippers and others" for finding the ammo and bringing it to the marketplace where buyers can purchase it. Otherwise the situation would me worse then it is now. I know the prices are high but thats because the demand is high and the supply is very low. Hence the high prices.

The demand for ammo will continue to remain high. Anyone who shoots more than every now and then will stock up to prevent them from being in such a state ever again. Sad to say this could last a few years without the political interference and the "anti's" efforts to place restrictions on the ability to exercise one's Second Amendment Rights. If the "anti's" continue their crusade against the Second Amendment then its anyones guess when supply will increase and prices drop.

bri
April 20, 2013, 09:43 AM
I think part of the problem is that ammo has now proven it's value as an alt-currency/investment in the event of future (and inevitable) panics. This proven value is going to prolong the shortage. It's no longer just about shooting in many, many people's minds.

Before I would smile whenever someone mentioned firearms as an investment. Now ammunition as well? Get real.

vito
April 20, 2013, 10:13 AM
Whatever the reason for the shortages I know that I used to feel OK with having two 500 rdbricks of 22lr and now I no longer do. I would likely pay much more than "normal" just to feel I have enough to feel safe.

bri
April 20, 2013, 10:37 AM
... In fact you should be thanking those "gougers,flippers and others" for finding the ammo and bringing it to the marketplace where buyers can purchase it...

Here here! I never would have been able to track all that ammo down! I always get confused as to which aisle it is at Walmart. 14? 4? Silly me.

Also, thanks for flipping all this ammo at a modest 200% markup. We couldn't have made it through this without you.

itchy1
April 20, 2013, 10:48 AM
"In fact you should be thanking those "gougers,flippers and others" for finding the ammo and bringing it to the marketplace where buyers can purchase it. Otherwise the situation would me worse then it is now."

I don't think so. The ammo would have found its way into the marketplace just fine without the extra layer of middlemen.

Pilot
April 20, 2013, 10:54 AM
BUYERS set market prices, not gougers, middlemen, manufacturers nor the Tooth Fairy. As soon as people are not willing to pay higher prices, and product sits, the price comes down.

I will not pay exorbitant prices for ammo, but I reload and have components, if I didn't I'd just shoot minimally to remain proficient until prices came back down, which they will.

Highland Ranger
April 20, 2013, 11:00 AM
Before I would smile whenever someone mentioned firearms as an investment. Now ammunition as well?

I don't know . . . . . I have quite a few boxes of 45acp hardball I bought for $4.99 not that long ago . . . . . what are they now $18?

That's done better than any money I invested anywhere else.

OilyPablo
April 20, 2013, 11:04 AM
I saw the .22LR sellers at the shows. Brand new sellers, with nothing but .22LR $60-$100 per brick on their tables. Some people were buying, most of us were chuckling. Not sure if they have "inventory" as of today.

Yes indeed the buyers set the price.

bigdaa
April 20, 2013, 11:04 AM
I am glad you mentioned the "gougers"

Man, they hurt. But we do have a supply and demand society. What I deem as gougy I can do without.

BSA1
April 20, 2013, 11:17 AM
It may get interesting when the panic is over. What will the idiots with a ten year supply do with it? Not buy any for ten years, or dump it at gun shows and Craig's list?

I look at it this way;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyY-6oh0Ow8

As I sat there on my sack of ammunition. Ya'll drive carefully and come back now ya'll here.

Vern Humphrey
April 20, 2013, 11:23 AM
BUYERS set market prices, not gougers, middlemen, manufacturers nor the Tooth Fairy. As soon as people are not willing to pay higher prices, and product sits, the price comes down.
Amen!

It's quite rare to find someone who understands this!

bri
April 20, 2013, 11:56 AM
I don't know . . . . . I have quite a few boxes of 45acp hardball I bought for $4.99 not that long ago . . . . . what are they now $18?

That's done better than any money I invested anywhere else.

I stand corrected. $4.99/50? How long ago was that?

mrcooper
April 20, 2013, 12:07 PM
I have not bought any gun related stuff for over 4 mo's and will not buy till the the gougers have to gough themselves:cuss::cuss:

bluetopper
April 20, 2013, 12:32 PM
We here in this great country have always been used to everything we want being in abundance and logistically convenient so therefore we only stock everything very minimally and for the very short term. This ammo supply scenario is I'm afraid is just the first.
Imagine the chaos if/when the supermarkets will not be able to be stocked for a couple of weeks.

Potatohead
April 20, 2013, 12:54 PM
from a business standpoint, the manufacturers cant just order new equipment and double their work force every time we all get in freak out mode...what would they do when its over and they find out theyve saturated the market for the next 10 years? not a good way to grow their business long term...theyre not stupid...just wanted to say that:)

mrvco
April 20, 2013, 01:03 PM
BUYERS set market prices, not gougers, middlemen, manufacturers nor the Tooth Fairy. As soon as people are not willing to pay higher prices, and product sits, the price comes down.

I will not pay exorbitant prices for ammo, but I reload and have components, if I didn't I'd just shoot minimally to remain proficient until prices came back down, which they will.


"Buyers" are not setting the market price at Walmart. Walmart is selling at prices WAY below the intersection of the supply and demand curves (e.g. 9MM for $21.xx/100 is way below market by any measure).

Their below-market pricing continues to justify the hoarders and provides the gunshow resellers with a supply of cheap ammo that they can mark-up 2x-3x or more. Both types camp Walmart at restocking time and call in their family and friends to buy up everything they came, leaving little to nothing for "normal" people. This is just continues to distort the market slows down the return to any sort of normalcy.

PedalBiker
April 20, 2013, 01:12 PM
Before I would smile whenever someone mentioned firearms as an investment. Now ammunition as well? Get real.

What meets your criteria?

A poorly managed American Corporation, an aging house, a bond that pays less than inflation, a 0.5% CD at your local bank?

There are loads of investments, most of them don't actually pan out well, that is why investing is a hard way to make a living (otherwise why work?).

Hopefully people are not borrowing money to buy ammo.

coolluke01
April 20, 2013, 01:18 PM
I heard about this the other day. Very fitting considering the self inflicted ammo shortage we are dealing with.
How Johnny Carson Caused a Toilet Paper Shortage
http://legendsrevealed.com/entertainment/2013/04/04/did-johnny-carson-really-accidentally-cause-a-toilet-paper-shortage-in-1973/

Highland Ranger
April 20, 2013, 02:13 PM
I stand corrected. $4.99/50? How long ago was that?

I want to say less the 10 years ago . . . .

TennJed
April 20, 2013, 02:20 PM
You are both right, but I don't think most of the ammunition now being bought is for consumption anytime soon, it's for "just in case".

It may get interesting when the panic is over. What will the idiots with a ten year supply do with it? Not buy any for ten years, or dump it at gun shows and Craig's list?

Might be some really good deals out there.

I have not bought any ammunition since the New Town Shooting, and have just about shot up all of my expendable supply. When it is gone, I will restrict my shooting only to what I need to stay proficient with my concealed carry and hunting needs. Unless of course, the run on ammunition is over, and I can buy at reasonable prices again.
so you really think the people with a 10 year supply are idiots?

tech30528
April 20, 2013, 02:30 PM
Well I'm not afraid to say I use the shortage to my advantage. I've made a few hundred dollars on ammo sales in the past few months. I own a business that usually gets really busy during tax return season but this year it didn't. I'm making grocery money. It's like any other commodity. You can object and adstain if you like, but the market will still be there and I don't know of any other investments that are making this kind of margin this fast.

bri
April 20, 2013, 02:58 PM
I want to say less the 10 years ago . . . .
Ha, OK.

jeff-10
April 20, 2013, 03:16 PM
It may get interesting when the panic is over. What will the idiots with a ten year supply do with it? Not buy any for ten years, or dump it at gun shows and Craig's list?

Might be some really good deals out there.

Not buy it for 10 years. I used to buy tons of 9mm in the late 90s and early 2000s. I don't even know how many of those 250 round UMC bulk packs of 9mm I have left. Let alone the other stuff. I think I paid $20-$30 back then for them at Outdoor World. I don't think I've bought 9mm in 10+ years, except a bunch of Hydrashoks like 3 or 4 years ago. Since I've sold 3 of my 6 9mms, I imagine it'll last me several more years. Especially since I mainly shoot 40 S&W these days in handguns. I think in a year or so when all the idiots stop panic buying, I'll pick up 10k or so of 9mm FMJ.

CSG
April 20, 2013, 04:16 PM
I don't recall any .45 ACP hardball being available 10 years ago for 10 cents a round. Maybe 30 years ago. Now $14-5 a box, yeah, that was 10 years ago. Based on my stash of reloading components all bought awhile back (before the panic of 2013), it runs me 14-16 cents a round depending on the bullet.

jeff-10
April 20, 2013, 04:37 PM
I don't recall any .45 ACP hardball being available 10 years ago for 10 cents a round. Maybe 30 years ago. Now $14-5 a box, yeah, that was 10 years ago. Based on my stash of reloading components all bought awhile back (before the panic of 2013), it runs me 14-16 cents a round depending on the bullet.

Same. I'd often see WWB 9mm for $5 for 50 but .45 was 2-3 times that. Its why so many people have gravitated towards 9mm over the years.

joeschmoe
April 20, 2013, 04:56 PM
So everyone who owns a gas can is to blame for the high price of gas too? If we all had smaller gas tanks would the price of gas come down?
Because I have extra fresh batteries in my drawer I have caused a battery shortage too? I also have a first aid kit, fire extinguisher, food and water.

Did I prepare for emergencies or did I cause shortages?

snooperman
April 20, 2013, 04:58 PM
The President said that he and the Democratic leadership were going to make the gun debate, which includes assaullt weapons gun ban, mag bans, and the gun show loophole an issue in the next congressional election in 2014. Judging by the way they are organizing for this , we could have an ammo shortage much longer than any yet. The feeding frenzy will probably get worse if they keep this debate in the limelight for another year and a half. In the past they would lick their wounds and move-on but it remains to be seen. Jusy a thought.

Potatohead
April 20, 2013, 05:15 PM
In the past they would lick their wounds and move-on but it remains to be seen.
theyll be way past this by then as long as nobody shoots up a high school or something. we need a good Lewinsky type scandal, or an OJ trial. Ahhh, the good ol days

MDW GUNS
April 20, 2013, 05:46 PM
It's mostly panic buying, but DHS 6.8 bil. purchase did put a 6 month dent into the supply.
CCI alone manufactures 4 mil. .22 rounds EVERY DAY!
Even Obama can't buy this up for longer then 6 month.
So with some time, we will see more and more ammo coming back.

OilyPablo
April 20, 2013, 05:54 PM
DHS 6.8 bil. purchase

:neener::D:D:D The number keeps growing!;)

hovercat
April 20, 2013, 06:02 PM
You may get your wish, Col. The Zimmerman case must be about due.

TheOld Man
April 20, 2013, 06:15 PM
Excuse the slight thread drift... Those of us old enough to have been around during the Cuban Missile Crisis also remember that store shelves were empty of bread and canned goods. Once the diplomats got things straightened out, things went back to normal.

bri
April 20, 2013, 08:23 PM
I don't recall any .45 ACP hardball being available 10 years ago for 10 cents a round. Maybe 30 years ago. Now $14-5 a box, yeah, that was 10 years ago. Based on my stash of reloading components all bought awhile back (before the panic of 2013), it runs me 14-16 cents a round depending on the bullet.
Exactly. I was thinking around the 70's or so for that price.

bri
April 20, 2013, 08:39 PM
What meets your criteria?
Long term investments - Well placed homes, precious metals, long-term market commodities, etc.


There are loads of investments, most of them don't actually pan out well, that is why investing is a hard way to make a living (otherwise why work?).

I wouldn't say 'most' when referring to long-term investment. Many things people invest in short-term, yes.

Hopefully people are not borrowing money to buy ammo.

This is the USA, I'd bet a whole bunch of people have racked up the credit card with firearms and ammunition over the past few months. Sad.

Tcruse
April 20, 2013, 08:40 PM
"Buyers" are not setting the market price at Walmart. Walmart is selling at prices WAY below the intersection of the supply and demand curves (e.g. 9MM for $21.xx/100 is way below market by any measure).

Their below-market pricing continues to justify the hoarders and provides the gunshow resellers with a supply of cheap ammo that they can mark-up 2x-3x or more. Both types camp Walmart at restocking time and call in their family and friends to buy up everything they came, leaving little to nothing for "normal" people. This is just continues to distort the market slows down the return to any sort of normalcy.
The regulars that camp out early at my local Walmart are all shooters and shoot what they buy. Now, anyone that was buying to re-sale would get a lot of flack from the rest of us.

JohnBT
April 20, 2013, 11:19 PM
"What will the idiots with a ten year supply do with it?"

Ten years? I'm 62 and I'm planning on living longer than that. I wish I had 20 years' worth. Heck, my dad was 89 when he died in 2011. I might need 30.

joeschmoe
April 21, 2013, 12:03 AM
"What will the idiots with a ten year supply do with it?"

Enjoy for 10 years while prices keep rising. Just like I have. Then buy more.

Queen_of_Thunder
April 21, 2013, 10:50 AM
It may get interesting when the panic is over. What will the idiots with a ten year supply do with it? Not buy any for ten years, or dump it at gun shows and Craig's list?

I look at it this way;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyY-6oh0Ow8

As I sat there on my sack of ammunition. Ya'll drive carefully and come back now ya'll here.




Buy more ammo. That's what they will do.


Here's the deal. The moment the purchase limits come off is the moment people will place multi case orders and we will be right back where we are today. Going forward instead of buying a few boxes people will be buying a few cases. UPS and FedEx are going to experience a spike in shipments. I know I intend to give my UPS and FedEx guys a serious work out as soon as I can order by the case.

Gato MontÚs
April 21, 2013, 11:27 AM
I know I intend to give my UPS and FedEx guys a serious work out as soon as I can order by the case.

I don't believe that will be the case for most buyers. Undoubtedly you and a small minority burned in this last run will do just that, buy in bulk asap, but most shooter's consumption habits were buy for immediate use and it will continue that way. Most gun owners do not shoot as much as you or I, maybe a couple times a year. For them a full box of ammo for each gun they own sufficed and given the amount they shoot they will be satisfied with far less than what we would deem suitable.

My buddy's dad came home with a Buckmark a couple weeks ago. He told me his dad was upset because he couldn't try it out with no ammo available so I went over a dropped off 300 rounds of Mini Mags, a mere bread crumb from my supply. He spent an hour at the range and shot exactly 73 rounds, that was it. Hell, he wanted to give me the other two boxes back cause "he didn't need them." Told him to hold on to them, but that's exactly the mindset I get from most gun owners; not their primary hobby, just want a box or two kept around in case they want to go out shooting. There are also those who will simply just give up because to them it's not worth the trouble.

So between the easily satisfied and the easily dissuaded, it's only a matter of waiting out the storm of which I'm not so pessimistic its duration. I say early Fall we'll be looking back at this and laughing, crazy mass shootings/gun control legislation aside.

CSG
April 21, 2013, 12:46 PM
I first became a hoarder during the clinton years while living in California. It was still easy to get bulk ammo via vendors advertising in Shotgun News. I laid in a supply of 9mm and .38 which were the two calibers I shot most of. After leaving the state in '94 and getting my first couple AR's, I did the same with 5.56. Then, I bought a reloading press and laid in components. Of any caliber I shoot, I never have less than 600-700 loaded rounds and for .22, after a few years ago, I have 15 times that as I can't reload it. IF and when things ease up, I plan to add 5-10k case lots of .22 and at least another 2k of 5.56 (too much of a nuisance to reload).

I have room to store it and I don't think the grabbers are going anywhere (although they get no purchase in my state). I know a number of other shooters who feel as I do - we won't be fooled (caught short) again.

we are not amused
April 21, 2013, 02:36 PM
so you really think the people with a 10 year supply are idiots?
Yes.

jeff-10
April 21, 2013, 02:44 PM
Yes.

How can people who purchased an asset that is both useful and has appreciated considerably considered idiots? If those people hadn't purchased way more ammo than they have shot in the past, then the ammunition manufacturers wouldn't have the capacity they do today.

joeschmoe
April 21, 2013, 02:58 PM
Market price 10 years ago ($8) is what people with a bulk supply are paying to shoot now. People with a 1 month supply are paying today's market price ($20-$80).

Which is the idiot in this situation?

Potatohead
April 21, 2013, 03:11 PM
im no genius but ive gotta side with the stock enough up for ten years guys here

coolluke01
April 21, 2013, 03:22 PM
There are two different kinds of 10 year supply stockers. The first are those that bought when prices were low in years past. The second (and the dumb ones who are helping the ammo crisis) are buying 9mm for $20 a box, and .223 @ $1 a round. They are the morons IMHO.
The stocked, however should not bash the unstocked. Not everyone was able to stock enough for 10 years.

sage5907
April 21, 2013, 03:47 PM
No one has said it here but I think many gun owners are afraid of what the Federal Government will do with the 2nd Amendment. A big part of the Country went to sleep and look what they did with health care! The less populated states can't compete politically with the population centers like California, New York and Illinois. Buying ammunition is just a part of the concern initiated by the debate over gun control.

jeff-10
April 21, 2013, 04:31 PM
There are two different kinds of 10 year supply stockers. The first are those that bought when prices were low in years past. The second (and the dumb ones who are helping the ammo crisis) are buying 9mm for $20 a box, and .223 @ $1 a round. They are the morons IMHO.
The stocked, however should not bash the unstocked. Not everyone was able to stock enough for 10 years.

I have to agree that buying any ammo you absolutely don't need right now is financially a bad idea because it will likely be much cheaper in a few more months. Ditto for magazines. Although there were at least potential gun and magazine bans on the table, ammo bans/taxes were little more than rumor.

I said the same thing about people buying ARs in January and February. Give it six months and pick them up cheap.

I've always been very selective about buying ammo and magazines. If I see a good deal, I'll jump on it regardless of how much I have. Its why I have so much 9mm FMJ and 40 S&W JHP. I have found so many good deals on those types of rounds over the year, I've purchased more than I need.

Guns on the other hand I am unfortunately much more of a impulse buyer. :/

Alizard
April 21, 2013, 08:53 PM
No one has said it here but I think many gun owners are afraid of what the Federal Government will do with the 2nd Amendment. A big part of the Country went to sleep and look what they did with health care!That non-sequitur defines the core of the ammo panic. The SCOTUS just AFFIRMED the 2A in their DC v. Heller decision.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/District_of_Columbia_v._Heller


period. NOBODY is going to "take the guns" unless and until they can pack the court with enough judges who will REVERSE standing law and go against the constitution by overturning the DC v. Heller decision.

last time I checked the constitution did not have any amendments specifically addressing the manner in which the country will supply health care for it's citizens, so that is an irrelevant comparison.

Buying ammunition is just a part of the concern initiated by the debate over gun control.The ammo panic is an offshoot of the generalized stampede that has arisen among people who really have no clue exactly how and why the first AWB passed... if they did they would know those conditions do not exist now and likely never will again. There is no GOP force the size and power of Ronald Reagan who would knock back the NRA and twist enough arms to swing th votes needed to get an AWB passed. That's how it passed in '94. Right now, Obama could not get an eskimo to take a free snow blower. he can't even align the votes in his own party, and the GOP has about a 30 vote majority in the House.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/how-ronald-reagan-passed-the-assault-weapon-ban

The people who ran screaming when the dems started whining about the AWB really created the panic.

sage5907
April 21, 2013, 09:09 PM
Alizard, just in case you haven't noticed the price of health insurance is up about 30% since Obama took office in 2008 and the price of ammunition is up about 30% since Obama asked for gun legislation. There is a relationship between our daily lives and the politics of the day.

orionengnr
April 21, 2013, 09:37 PM
NOBODY is going to "take the guns" unless and until they can pack the court with enough judges who will REVERSE standing law and go against the constitution by overturning the DC v. Heller decision.

Nobody needs to "pack the Court with enough judges..." Most Supreme Court decisions go 5-4 one way or another.

In case you didn't notice, "somebody" got to appoint two during his first term. One more, and everything is up for grabs.

jon_in_wv
April 21, 2013, 09:43 PM
The source of the ammo shortage was simply a surge in demand by new gun owners. I'm guessing somewhere in the range of 5 million new gun owners. This increased demand to the point shortages developed. Add to that the experiences of past shortages current gun owners had experienced and you get a demand that cannot be sastified.

Well that can't be true. The mainstream media has been reporting that gun ownership is WAY down since enlightened people all realize there is no need for firearms in a peaceful and enlightened society like ours. They further state that only right wing kooks are buying up all the firearms so only a few crazy people actually have them. You know, white republicans who are afraid of black people. I wish you gun zealots would stop spreading lies and standing in the way of progress.

Note: For those unable to detect sarcasm, all the above is sarcasm.

orionengnr
April 21, 2013, 09:56 PM
There is no GOP force the size and power of Ronald Reagan who would knock back the NRA and twist enough arms to swing th votes needed to get an AWB passed. That's how it passed in '94.
Seriously, where did you learn your history???? Your education is seriously lacking. If this is what they are teaching in high school these days, I understand how the Big O got elected...twice.

For the record, the GOP was not in power in 94--Bill Clinton was the President, and the Democrats had both houses of Congress. That is how the AWB passed.
Reagan's last year in office was '88. Okay, technically, his last day was Jan 19, 1989.

Your statements about the Supreme Court and the Heller decision display a similar (and equally dire) lack of knowledge. Next time, please do some homework and avoid embarrassing yourself.

sage5907
April 21, 2013, 11:24 PM
The current political situation is all about power politics and the President and the Senate Democrats are making a serious charge at the 2nd Amendment status quo. Each of the small New England states who isn't gun friendly has 2 Senators who can vote the wishes of the Administration. This small geographical highly populated area is trying to use the tail to wag the dog. The situation is further complicated by the additional votes of the Senators from the left coast. Although the Democrats in the Senate didn't have enough votes to pass the legislation they haven't forgotten where they are going.

Ignition Override
April 22, 2013, 02:28 PM
we are not amused: Please sign me up for the idiot club membership:) if somebody knows who the secretary is. The thin plastic card might fit into my wallet. Mensa will never accept my membership.

These 9,800 rds. of centerfire ammo might only last five years, instead of ten.
If the gun bug had bitten Before '07 (age 52), I would have bought some much cheaper .303, .308 and x39 for the long-term.

Those ammo cans don't include 1,000 rds. of M2 Ball just ordered from the CMP to extra 'contingency fuel'. Will be a denser, happier Dummkopf mit einem grosseren Haufen von Patronen:D.

rcmodel
April 22, 2013, 02:33 PM
I am here to report that the hording frenzy is still in full swing locally.

A friend called me yesterday to report he & his wife bought the last six boxes (3 box limit) of .40 S&W at Wal-Mart Sunday morning at 6:30 AM.
He was super excited about it.

So, I ask him when he got a .40 S&W pistol?

And he said he didn't get one, and had no plans to get one!! :banghead:

rc

Potatohead
April 22, 2013, 02:54 PM
i didnt know Reagan was in office in 94.....oh yea, thats when he got in trouble for Watergate, right after he ended WW2 by dropping the bomb i believe..

sage5907
April 22, 2013, 04:34 PM
Sir Isaac Newton should have added a 30% rule that applies to American Politics as follows: When the cost of food is up 30%, when food stamp participation is up 30%, when health care costs are up 30%, when the price of gasoline is up 30%, when the cost of a college education is up 30%, when gun ownership is up 30%, then ammunition purchases will be up 30%. Think about it!

Alizard
April 22, 2013, 05:29 PM
Seriously, where did you learn your history???? Your education is seriously lacking. If this is what they are teaching in high school these days, I understand how the Big O got elected...twice.OK, irrelevant but shows your focus.



For the record, the GOP was not in power in 94--Bill Clinton was the President, and the Democrats had both houses of Congress. That is how the AWB passedI see... so it's a grand conspiracy including lying GOP representative who was quoted as saying:


The vote on the assault weapon ban was contentious and barely passed the House of Representatives. At least two members of the House of Representatives credited Reagan with influencing their votes. The bill passed 216-214, a margin of two votes.

Congressman Scott Klug, a Republican from Wisconsin was an opponent of the assault weapon ban and the day before the vote stated his opposition to the ban. Klug only changed his vote after "a last minute plea from President Reagan" in the form of a handwritten note.

Another former Congressman, New Hampshire Democrat Dick Swett, also credited the former President with influencing his vote. Swett was unsure of how to vote on the ban, but made up his made after direct lobbying from Reagan.


You can do the math?



Your statements about the Supreme Court and the Heller decision display a similar (and equally dire) lack of knowledge. Next time, please do some homework and avoid embarrassing yourself.

Physician, heal thyself.

Alizard
April 22, 2013, 05:36 PM
i didnt know Reagan was in office in 94.....oh yea, thats when he got in trouble for Watergate, right after he ended WW2 by dropping the bomb i believe..Congrats on missing the entire point. Reagan was not president in 94, but he was the most powerful political force in action behind the AWB. Try all you want, you can't rewrite history. Without Reagan, the first AWB would have died.

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/ronald-reagan-helped-pass-the-1994-assault-weapons-ban/

http://www.nytimes.com/1991/03/29/opinion/why-i-m-for-the-brady-bill.html

http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/how-ronald-reagan-passed-the-assault-weapon-ban

http://articles.latimes.com/1991-04-07/opinion/op-251_1_brady-bill-fred-romero-handgun-control

EDIT TO ADD:

Here's how close the vote was:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/817036/posts

The result was the bill passing by the narrowest of margins, with a vote count of 216 for the bill, 214 against and with 3 abstaining; it was numbered as one of the narrowest victories in legislative history.

The ludicrous notion that the "dem majority" in congress sailed he bill through is patently false. It would have died without strong lobbying from Reagan.

reagan may not have written the bill, but he is the midwife who helped deliver it.

It is also a myth to think the parties voted "straight line" on the AWB. According to this article:

voting patterns on the 1994 assault weapons ban in the House. In all, 64 House Democrats voted “Nay” on the omnibus crime bill, and most were Southern “Blue Dog” Democrats with high second dimension scores. Conversely, 46 House Republicans voted “Yea,”

A total of 46 republicans "crossed the line" and voted for it. Obviously, many would not have without the strong push from Reagan and the political cover his stance afforded them.

http://voteview.com/blog/?p=693

Potatohead
April 23, 2013, 11:45 AM
yea yea yea...just trying to have a little fun..it looked like thats what you were saying, the way it was written. i was pretty sure you knew who was in office in 94

flyingfeathers
April 30, 2013, 05:19 PM
the shortage was created by gluttonous Americans...just wait until there is a food scare...I am cynical...I think Americans would tear each other apart in a true crisis...

Vern Humphrey
April 30, 2013, 06:04 PM
the shortage was created by gluttonous Americans...just wait until there is a food scare...I am cynical...I think Americans would tear each other apart in a true crisis...
Of course. You can't cook your neighbor until you butcher him.:p

offthepaper
April 30, 2013, 08:49 PM
the shortage was created by gluttonous Americans...just wait until there is a food scare...I am cynical...I think Americans would tear each other apart in a true crisis...

i'm fairly sure the same folks who stocked up on ammo have a few cans of beans stashed somewhere, and a lot of other things as well.

12many
April 30, 2013, 09:11 PM
Good idea about beer. I don't really have a supply of that, well I did, but I drank it. I have a supply of vodka though just in case.

Bruno2
April 30, 2013, 10:44 PM
Seriously, where did you learn your history???? Your education is seriously lacking. If this is what they are teaching in high school these days, I understand how the Big O got elected...twice.

For the record, the GOP was not in power in 94--Bill Clinton was the President, and the Democrats had both houses of Congress. That is how the AWB passed.
Reagan's last year in office was '88. Okay, technically, his last day was Jan 19, 1989.

Your statements about the Supreme Court and the Heller decision display a similar (and equally dire) lack of knowledge. Next time, please do some homework and avoid embarrassing yourself.

Reagan signed the FOPA into law in 1986. That was the one that banned the manufacture and importation of machine guns for civilians. That's why the cost a fortune now because the only ones we are allowed to buy were made before 1986 and that number is dwindling. Reagan also called Bill Clinton begging for him to push an AWB while he was in office. Reagan was very anti gun just for the record. If you don't believe me look at what he did to CA while he was Governor there.

justice06rr
April 30, 2013, 11:14 PM
the shortage was created by gluttonous Americans...just wait until there is a food scare...I am cynical...I think Americans would tear each other apart in a true crisis...

We probably already see a small taste of this during disasters like hurricanes etc. People fighting over food/water and gas. I mean if you think Black Friday shopping is bad, people fighting over food and water is worse.

benEzra
May 1, 2013, 09:12 AM
There are two different kinds of 10 year supply stockers. The first are those that bought when prices were low in years past. The second (and the dumb ones who are helping the ammo crisis) are buying 9mm for $20 a box, and .223 @ $1 a round. They are the morons IMHO.

They are *not* morons if they are new to shooting, or new to 9mm's and .223's, or are new to the realization that guns are more than sporting implements, or new to the realization that the ammunition supply chain is far more fragile and limited in relation to demand than people realize.

If you have a good bit of ammo stashed away, then sure, buying more 9mm/.223 at $1/round may not make a lot of since from a ROI standpoint. But if you don't, then buying a couple hundred rounds of each at $1/round is entirely rational, if you have the cash to spare.

FWIW, there were countless posts prior to December 2012 calling other shooters "morons" and "idiots" for buying AR's and ammo at 2011-2012 prices. As it turns out, those weren't bad choices at all.

PabloJ
May 1, 2013, 09:53 AM
The "disappearing ammo phenomenon" has a huge psychological component to it, and it involves the way people react to a shortage (panic) and even how their long term behavior changes.

This is a true story I lived through and it illustrates how a shortage can be created even when none exists.... and why.

I started work at Fairchild Semiconductor three decades ago. There was a common equipment room where all the company electronics equipment was stored: oscilloscopes, signal generators, meters, etc. And as would be obvious, every piece of equipment had an AC power cord with it that plugged in the back and let you plug it in and use it.

One day, the idiot who ran the equipment room decided that the equipment should go on the shelves and the AC cords should hang on the wall.... but there were several different styles of AC cords (USA, european, non standard).

So each time somebody wandered into the equipment room and grabbed a piece of equipmenet, he had to hunt for a cord.

THE "SOLUTION":

People started keeping cords in their desks. So whenever they carried a piece of equipment back, they were "secure" in the knowledge they had the right cord and wouldn't have to search through the ones in the equipment room.

Instantly a shortage was created: every piece of equipment had a cord.... but now every engineer had five of them stockpiled in his desk. Within a short time, cords became scarce and everybody was complaining that we needed to buy more cords.... when in fact, there were plenty of cords.

The point is: anytime people's "equilibrium" is upset they react and often in stupid ways. In the case of the ammo shortage, people who used to keep a few boxes of ammo on hand are now scrambling to acquire thousands to keep and "feel secure". This means the demand for ammo has been suddenly (and artificially) increased well beyond the actual consumption level and the supply system in place is not sized to provide that much ammo.

You also have gougers buying up all the ammo they can to scalp it on Craig's list and make money which further increases demand.
The shortage is basically result of "primal instinct" born out of irrational fear. It's just like
vultures descending on carcass laying on Serengeti. One guy sees ammo and calls his buddies on cell phone and they descend and buy everything available. Some people actually have a psychiatric disorder hoarding in vast excess of what they really need These folks are just like people that have several hundred rolls of toilet pater and fifty sticks of deodorant they keep buying when it goes on sale at reduced price. That is actually a mental condition I do not remember the name of, but news programs show garages and basements with isles of merchandise just like back of local supermarket.

GAF
May 1, 2013, 11:10 AM
Seriously, where did you learn your history???? Your education is seriously lacking. If this is what they are teaching in high school these days, I understand how the Big O got elected...twice.

For the record, the GOP was not in power in 94--Bill Clinton was the President, and the Democrats had both houses of Congress. That is how the AWB passed.
Reagan's last year in office was '88. Okay, technically, his last day was Jan 19, 1989.

Your statements about the Supreme Court and the Heller decision display a similar (and equally dire) lack of knowledge. Next time, please do some homework and avoid embarrassing yourself.
Just in case someone needs a history lesson, but this thread is not about the links below.
In the last panic I was caught short on some calibers of ammo , but not this time and I did not go out and buy everything in sight.

http://civilliberty.about.com/od/guncontrol/a/Gun-Rights-Ronald-Reagan.htm

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/ronald-reagan-helped-pass-the-1994-assault-weapons-ban/

http://www.politifact.com/georgia/statements/2013/feb/05/barack-obama/did-reagan-support-assault-weapons-ban/

Shanghai McCoy
May 1, 2013, 12:26 PM
We probably already see a small taste of this during disasters like hurricanes etc. People fighting over food/water and gas. I mean if you think Black Friday shopping is bad, people fighting over food and water is worse.
Another example happened when I lived in Hawaii and there would be talk of a shipping strike.
Toilet paper and rice would be the first items to rush out the door of the stores...

As for ammo, the local Wallyworld guy told me that folks are still going from store to store and buying up what gets put on the shelf. Yesterday they had 2 boxes of 32 ACP and one box of 38 Special hardball on the shelf. He told me the only reason the 38 was still around was because they found it on the floor under the counter. He is seriously considering expanding the knife display...:scrutiny:

Potatohead
May 1, 2013, 02:37 PM
But if you don't, then buying a couple hundred rounds of each at $1/round is entirely rational, if you have the cash to spare.

amen brother

Bone2bWild
May 1, 2013, 06:02 PM
We here in this great country have always been used to everything we want being in abundance and logistically convenient so therefore we only stock everything very minimally and for the very short term. This ammo supply scenario is I'm afraid is just the first.
Imagine the chaos if/when the supermarkets will not be able to be stocked for a couple of weeks.

I know most stores receive shipments about 4 times a week and so popular items are only stocked on shelf for 2-5 days of supply. The back rooms are too small to hold much so it is a real threat if our transportation system ever goes down. You see it during winter storms when stores completely run out of Bread and milk or during big holiday times.

Now with ammo I'm afraid this hysteria will like last through Obamas remaining term. Ouch!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Potatohead
May 1, 2013, 06:44 PM
i think Bone might be on to something. I think this thing is going to be sporadic at best during these last few years of his term

mrvco
May 2, 2013, 03:14 PM
Ammunition will start growing on trees when Sarah Palin gets elected president in 2016 :neener:

mac66
May 2, 2013, 03:28 PM
The demand is fueled by both speculators and hoarders. I ran across an acquaintance who buys ever round of ammo he can find whether he has a gun in that caliber or not. He has spent thousands and thousands to stock up over the last few months simply because it is scarce. He has no intention to sell it, he is simply compelled to hoard it. I believe this guy with die someday with a basement stocked floor to ceiling with ammo that he will never use and his heir will turn over to the cops to get rid of it.

I also run across the speculators, as long as they can keep the supply low by buying everything they can, the prices will stay high and they make money.

I stocked up on ammo over the years whenever the prices have been low. I've not bought or sold one round of ammo since the panic On the other hand I've not shot much either since I can't yet replace what I have.

Stocking up during times of plenty is a good thing. Hoarding during times of famine to keep others from obtaining it is a bad thing.

Highland Ranger
May 4, 2013, 12:44 PM
I don't know that people hoard to keep others from obtaining. I think they're afraid there won't be enough for them.

On a related note, I think the gun and ammo buying frenzy has sent a message as strong or stronger than any message ever sent at a ballot box.

Vern Humphrey
May 4, 2013, 01:23 PM
I think you're right. the purpose of gun control is not to keep guns out of the hands of criminals -- even the most brain-dead politician knows that's impossible. It's to keep guns out of the hands of citizens.

BSA1
May 5, 2013, 10:31 AM
The "disappearing ammo phenomenon" has a huge psychological component to it, and it involves the way people react to a shortage (panic) and even how their long term behavior changes.

The point is: anytime people's "equilibrium" is upset they react and often in stupid ways.

So are you saying that concerns about why the DHS releasing a market survey asking companies if they are able to provide 2 million rounds of ammunition within a short time period as reported on DRUDGE REPORT is merely upsetting "people's equilibrium" and they are reacting in "stupid ways."

The shortage is basically result of "primal instinct" born out of irrational fear.

I guess it is obvious that your view of Obamas push for rational gun control is very different than millions of other Americans.

Or as a country boy let me share this true fact with you;

If you put a frog into a pan of hot water it will immediately jump out.
On the other hand if you put the same frog in a pan of cool water and slowly raise the temperature the fog will just sit there and cook to death.

http://www.infowars.com/dhs-seeks-millions-more-rounds-of-ammunition/

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