Ruger: 2,000,000 orders on backlog


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baz
April 30, 2013, 10:52 AM
Analysis put together by someone who knows how to read an SEC 10-Q:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/04/Ruger%20Backlog_2.jpg

Read the whole thing, here (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-29/weaponized-america-sturm-ruger-backlog-doubles-gun-production-shipments-surge).

If you enjoyed reading about "Ruger: 2,000,000 orders on backlog" here in TheHighRoad.org archive, you'll LOVE our community. Come join TheHighRoad.org today for the full version!
herkyguy
April 30, 2013, 11:16 AM
just keep cranking out those 4" SP101s in .357. I want one.......

nathan
April 30, 2013, 11:41 AM
I m glad i got the Ruger 10/22 LVT model. Shoot s really tight groups.

mgmorden
April 30, 2013, 11:41 AM
Its an interesting stat, but do remember that this doesn't mean there are 2 million orders for end users backlogged. Most all of this is for resellers. As stores get the production that Ruger makes they'll still be going on shelves (both brick/mortar and "virtual" on the web).

Still excellent for their business, but some people might get the idea that they'll never see a Ruger for a few years :).

CoRoMo
April 30, 2013, 11:46 AM
Whether it is due to the recent governmental attempt to enforce assorted gun controlling measures in the aftermath of the Newtown, CT shooting, or, merely driven by the same catalyst that saw a surge in gun sales four years ago...
One and the same. The panic buying happened four years ago for the same reason it began four months ago; expected/feared gun control.
...America is preparing for war.
Uh, mmmmkay.

baz
April 30, 2013, 12:40 PM
One and the same. The panic buying happened four years ago for the same reason it began four months ago; expected/feared gun control.True. But the surge in demand this time was about 4-5x that of 2009.

Most all of this is for resellers.Maybe so, but they wouldn't be placing orders unless they thought there was a market for them.


Quote:
...America is preparing for war.

Uh, mmmmkay. A little melodramatic, perhaps, but it probably is fair to say that America is preparing for a day when gun control succeeds. Which begs some questions. I'm reading "Essential Liberty (http://www.amazon.com/Essential-Liberty-Rob-Olive/dp/0985902000)," a speculation on what would happen if a time came when the gun control faction succeeded in passing a law that would require the surrendering ("collection") of all firearms. Do all those participating in the current buying spree anticipate just turning them in again someday? Are they hoping that their purchases would be grandfathered? Have they thought through what they would do it not? I have no doubt that some are, if not "preparing" for war, are at least seeking to be "prepared" if it were to come to that.

I do see the great buying spree as a good thing. The more people invested in the ownership of guns, the better it is for gun ownership and the preservation of liberty and RKBA.

mgmorden
April 30, 2013, 12:52 PM
Maybe so, but they wouldn't be placing orders unless they thought there was a market for them.

Absolutely. I'm just saying for those that want one, don't get discouraged and think "Oh, they're backordered for years - I'll never get one". That's only the case if the backorders are by end users.

Most of the backorders in this case are by dealers wanting to sell them, so saying they're backordered by 2 million units doesn't necessarily mean you'll be unable to get your hands on a new Ruger, unless you're a dealer wanting stock.

taliv
April 30, 2013, 01:03 PM
i think in january/february, yeah, America was preparing for war. the less inhibited among us, e.g. Yeager, were posting youtube videos saying they were going to start shooting if there was any more fed encroachment on rights. but just about everybody i know, and a lot of people i didn't know, told me they were getting guns and expected some sort of revolution or at the least, unpleasantness.

and to be fair, a combination of obama's aggression and the consensus that the economic situations we see playing out in greece and cyprus will soon reach our shores, means i'm certainly not going to call people kooks or paranoids for wanting to protect themselves.

things seem to have calmed down now. but those orders were placed at the height of the hysteria.

X-Rap
April 30, 2013, 01:42 PM
Talked to a long time established reloading vendor this weekend and he said powder back orders exceeded 1,000,000#. Another local store went through 500# in a few days. Doesn't surprise me that there are millions of back orderd guns as well.
It's like ammo and reloading supplies, they are still being produced at levels never before seen but they are just absorbed as soon as they hit the retail market.

Readying for war??? Who knows what people are readying for but the enthusiasm is encouraging.

oneounceload
April 30, 2013, 04:57 PM
The only issue with this becomes one of quality control - if Ruger (or any of the others with a backlog) goes full bore to catch up, quality is going to suffer

MagnumDweeb
April 30, 2013, 05:06 PM
I see it in this vein, in a couple years there will be some great deals on "used" guns. In the meantime my gunnie tendencies are best invested in my little projects like BP shooting in modern guns and primer manufacturing (finally have a reason to collect cans and berdan primed ammo).

Next month I'm taking a Romanian Wasr-10 (bought off a friends son that had let it get beat to hell and rusted) that I've tweaked, to shoot BP rounds out of it so I'm curios to see how that will go. I won't load more than three rounds in the 10 round mag so I won't have a grenade and no fast firing (one shot every five seconds, and no more than six rounds a minute, with a five minute cool down, it's good to bring a lot of other guns).

I'm still waiting on my letter back from the ATF, to see if I can make Poudre B and Cordite (or some poor man's rendition that is still somehow superior to black powder).

I've got a drill press coming in and some orders of steel billets and rods that I plan to combine with an old rusting press I got from a storage unit I bought, to create a primer press, and former. I've got primers that have been reloaded up to five times now and I think they are starting to wear out so I plan to melt them down and pour them into casting blocks to form "cups" to form into primers.

Each time they are melted down you risk losing the desired properties in them but I can't see them being softer than aluminum and I've successfully test fired primers made out of coke can aluminum (without melting anything down, just used a hole punch and worked some magic on forming the primer).

I'll need to buy some dapping sets and punches, I want to use a press method instead of straight hammering because I think hammering will risking destroying the cup rather than forming it.

Ken70
April 30, 2013, 07:15 PM
One thing you can depend on, the manufacturers won't do much of anything to increase production. Especially if it's new machines and floor space. There might be a couple of hours of overtime a week, but past that, not gonna happen. The gun industry just plods along at the same output, regardless of demand. With the govt out there banning anything gun related, probably a wise choice....They might get shut down if the Dems have their way..

Hanzo581
April 30, 2013, 07:39 PM
I'm going to ask a silly question.

I just recently went to a gun show expecting it to be a ghost town only to find it packed full of guns of all types and none outrageously priced (outside of a few ARs), so who would wait on a back ordered firearm when there are so many others out there available?

I mean is it just because some are huge fans of the brand?

Stevie-Ray
April 30, 2013, 08:11 PM
i think in january/february, yeah, America was preparing for war. the less inhibited among us, e.g. Yeager, were posting youtube videos saying they were going to start shooting if there was any more fed encroachment on rights. but just about everybody i know, and a lot of people i didn't know, told me they were getting guns and expected some sort of revolution or at the least, unpleasantness.

and to be fair, a combination of obama's aggression and the consensus that the economic situations we see playing out in greece and cyprus will soon reach our shores, means i'm certainly not going to call people kooks or paranoids for wanting to protect themselves.
I find that extremely perceptive and on point to my way of thinking as well. And yes, things MAY have calmed down a bit, but the opposition has not rested one iota, and I expect things to ratchet up again at least within months. They are not licking their wounds, but instead trying desperately to get anything that smacks in the least of gun control past the majority. This is definitely not the time to declare victory. I for one am still glad there are far more gun owners now than there were even a scant 6 months ago.

wally
April 30, 2013, 09:09 PM
This is definitely not the time to declare victory. I for one am still glad there are far more gun owners now than there were even a scant 6 months ago.

+1!

And this could make us stronger in the future if the new owners vote with their ballots the way they have done with their dollars!

mgmorden
April 30, 2013, 10:06 PM
I just recently went to a gun show expecting it to be a ghost town only to find it packed full of guns of all types and none outrageously priced (outside of a few ARs), so who would wait on a back ordered firearm when there are so many others out there available?


See my posts above. Ruger doesn't sell directly to the public. Those backorders are for dealers and distributors. So when you're buying those guns from THEM at the gun shows you reference, those dealers are backordered with Ruger to provide them with more guns to sell as they get them in the future.

splattergun
April 30, 2013, 10:09 PM
"Orders on backlog" isn't quite the same as the "backorder" status you'd find in a store or website, where they have sold more than stock on hand. Manufacturers set their production schedules based on orders 'in the pipeline', trend analysis and projection of future orders. I expect this chart shows a combination of actual orders due now, due later and anticipated sales, and other factors.

Rugers are on the shelf in stores around me. Not as many as were in November, but they are trickling in.

oneounceload
April 30, 2013, 10:32 PM
^^^True, production is done in batches - they will make a certain gun based on past sales and projections; then they will go on to the next model, and on and on, and they will try to do a certain period of time's worth - typically a year. Most were caught off-guard for the demand, so there are shortages. They are not going to revamp their entire production schedule because one model is suddenly popular - they would have supply chain issues with outside suppliers for items that are on order. As someone who spent a lot of time dealing with inventory, supply chain, and long lead time items, I understand their side of the issue, even though it seems frustrating to others who do not understand why their favorite (and popular) particular gun isn't available

smalls
May 1, 2013, 12:09 AM
I just talked to my father today, who lives in Canada. He picked up a 10/22 off a buddy for like $100, but with no mags. So off to the LGS to buy a few he went to find none available. The owner said that he had an order he placed 8 months ago with Ruger that still hasn't been shipped. I told him they were back logged like crazy, and they're probably taking care of most of the American orders, first.

ngnrd
May 1, 2013, 12:59 PM
Looking at the chart, I'm wondering what happened in the 4th quarter of '11 that caused the spike in demand in the 1st quarter of '12. That's more dramatic (as a percentage) than the change between Q4-12 and Q1-13.

Reloadron
May 1, 2013, 01:05 PM
Look at the backlog and then buy RGR. :)

Ron

JRH6856
May 1, 2013, 01:10 PM
Looking at the chart, I'm wondering what happened in the 4th quarter of '11 that caused the spike in demand in the 1st quarter of '12. That's more dramatic (as a percentage) than the change between Q4-12 and Q1-13.
What new guns did Ruger introduce about that time that might generate high demand?

nelsonal
May 1, 2013, 01:14 PM
Here's the likely source of that chart:
http://imgur.com/G3UtJAn
It's Ruger's orders and sell through data from their conference call yesterday. What's interesting to me is that they've been able to nearly double unit production in about 18 months (they hit their first million unit year in 2011, but are up to 500k/qtr currently) and the orders number may not reflect the demand spike as they put orders on allocation in 2012. That backlog represents 12 months of production for Ruger at current levels.

481
May 1, 2013, 01:20 PM
Analysis put together by someone who knows how to read an SEC 10-Q:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/04/Ruger%20Backlog_2.jpg

Read the whole thing, here (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-29/weaponized-america-sturm-ruger-backlog-doubles-gun-production-shipments-surge).

Now, that is what I call a stimulus!

bigdaa
May 1, 2013, 01:21 PM
Got all the Rugers I need for now, thankfully. What a pain to see that chart for those waiting for something specifically.

It's an itch ya can't scratch!

Sam Cade
May 1, 2013, 01:40 PM
One thing you can depend on, the manufacturers won't do much of anything to increase production.


In the first quarter of 2013, capital expenditures totaled $7.7 million, much of it related to new products and the expansion of production capacity. We expect to invest approximately $30 million for capital expenditures during 2013.

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2013/04/29/sturm-ruger-company-inc-reports-first-quarter-full/


Had a tour of the Sturm Ruger pistol plant in Prescott, AZ
Wifeís younger brother is the chief manufacturing engineer at the Sturm Ruger pistol plant in Prescott, AZ. He treated us to a tour of the plant, and I was most impressed.

He explained each step of the production process, the speed of the fully automated CNC tooling, which makes the pistolís production possible, is amazing and something to behold. He led us through for just one pistol, whereas a completed gun is boxed for shipment every 30 seconds, and it was just one of the many different models made in the plant. All CF pistol barrel rifling is broach cut while fully submerged in an oil bath, and watching it was like zip, done. Watching round steel billets transformed into slides and barrels at such speed, was hard to follow.

They are months behind for filling outstanding orders, and have had to stop taking new orders for three months to fill existing orders. Every day over 40,000 rounds of ammunition is fired, just for the proof testing of guns being shipped.

There are over 800 employees in the plant working two long shifts and they are adding new space and machine tooling to increase production even further.

http://www.thehighroad.org/showthread.php?t=714003

hang fire
May 1, 2013, 02:15 PM
One thing you can depend on, the manufacturers won't do much of anything to increase production. Especially if it's new machines and floor space. There might be a couple of hours of overtime a week, but past that, not gonna happen. The gun industry just plods along at the same output, regardless of demand. With the govt out there banning anything gun related, probably a wise choice....They might get shut down if the Dems have their way..
Not true for Ruger, and I am speaking from first hand observation.

http://www.thehighroad.org/showthread.php?t=714003&highlight=ruger+tour

russ69
May 1, 2013, 03:03 PM
Ruger has a very diverse product line and they are continuing to introduce new models all the time. It will be a long while before they will be able to catch up and have all model lines delivered.

tekarra
May 2, 2013, 06:02 PM
Splattergun says it quite well. Any business needs a backlog to properly plan production with issues related to material inventories, production schedules and staffing. Backlog is different from back order.

joeponds
May 2, 2013, 06:24 PM
S&W is not so hot as a stock prospect.never was.

22-rimfire
May 2, 2013, 08:54 PM
I would imagine that the orders estimated for 1st quarter 2013. But, those are pretty amazing trends. Ruger is hopping!

Every day over 40,000 rounds of ammunition is fired, just for the proof testing of guns being shipped.

That is hard to believe. I wonder if Ruger has trouble finding ammunition?

ilbob
November 14, 2013, 01:46 PM
http://www.nhbr.com/November-15-2013/Ruger-backlog-nears-2-million-guns/

Queen_of_Thunder
November 14, 2013, 06:26 PM
The only issue with this becomes one of quality control - if Ruger (or any of the others with a backlog) goes full bore to catch up, quality is going to suffer
I've already experienced that with S&W in regards to the junky trgger on my M&P40 VTAC. Instead of seding it back to S&W I'm letting my gunsmith fix it. My gunsmith is simply great.

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