So where do prices go from here?


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Queen_of_Thunder
September 7, 2013, 11:05 AM
I've been wondering what to do from here on out ammo wise. I've gathered the needed tools for reloading along with a start up supply of brass, bullets, powder and primers for pistol ammo. After 8 months of nearly no shooting plus purchases I can return to a limited shooting schedule this month. Granted it will only be one match and one practice session(pistol) a month its better than what I'm doing now which is 1 box a month limit on centerfire pistol ammo. Just enough range time to keep my skill level from degrading too much.

Rifle is a whole other mess. Still searching for .303 ,30-40 Krag, 7.5x55 and 300win mag brass and bullets at a price I can afford.

Frankly I'm not sure where prices are heading in the next year or two for everything ammo related. I know physical stocks for copper and lead have been dropping since 2010. Will Germany and France coming out of recession lead to a higher demand or will consumers continue to spend only on basic needs. Will China's upswing put pressure on copper and lead prices. Will our own small upswing apply upward pricing pressure or will the bottim fall out of everything. Then there are the politics.

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22-rimfire
September 7, 2013, 11:45 AM
I would do what you're doing. Pay attention to pricing and pick up ammunition or supplies when you have the funds and they're available. I suspect pricing will be coming down at gunshops and going up a little at places like Walmart, Academy Sports, Sportsman Warehouse, Dicks, Cabelas, and Bass Pro after the shelves begin to stay stocked for more than a day or two.

oneounceload
September 7, 2013, 06:10 PM
With the threat of a new tax, the panic will start all over again......

just like gas, it went from $1.65 to $3.50 until we just accepted it as the new norm - ammo will do the same

the days of .02/.22lr are over................

splithoof
September 7, 2013, 06:20 PM
For the long term, I see all prices associated with any thing relating to firearms, hunting, and shooting going up, and staying up. With so many folks getting into shooting of some sort, why would the retail industry not pass up a chance to earn money?

MarshallDodge
September 7, 2013, 06:23 PM
It will come back down. The ammo shortage is already starting to improve and my prediction is that come November when people are starting to focus their money on Christmas gifts, etc. the shelves will no longer be bare.

oneounceload
September 7, 2013, 06:25 PM
why would the retail industry not pass up a chance to earn money?

called supply and demand and the components are in demand worldwide for other products

huntsman
September 7, 2013, 07:43 PM
I vote for up, up and away but then I'm a pessimist.The price increases aren't just recent, I traded away my .44mag in 07 because I wouldn't pay a buck a round.

BigBore44
September 8, 2013, 02:18 AM
$50 for 50 44mag rounds? Man that's rough.

I have seen slight increases in ammo prices where I shop (Walmart, Academy, BPS and my LGS). WWB 44 mag went up to $40 box of 50 from $38. In some cases I have seen decreases also. As much as $10 in a box of 308 I bought from Walmart during the panic for my father.

mljdeckard
September 8, 2013, 02:20 AM
I lost a couple of bets when I said that it would be back to normal before August.

I think we will see prices settle to about 10% what they were before the panic, and call it the new normal.

The above-mentioned idea that Christmas shopping will re-focus spending is probably a good prediction.

CZ223
September 8, 2013, 07:44 AM
or somewhere else if you think ammo prices are coming down. Take a look at recent history. The price of 100 rounds of federal 9mm at Walmart was $15.99 before Obama took office. It quickly rose to 19.99 and stayed there up till the recent panic. That was an increase of 33% and now it is up to $22.99 at my local walmart for a total increase of 43%. I could through a lot more examples of price increases but I won't. The fact is even though it is more expensive than it was 6 months ago it will probably never be this cheap again. Don't bother with the reasons why the price rose, it really is irrelevant. The manufacturers, retailers and middle men have seen what people are willing to pay for ammo and they will have little reason to reduce their profits even if demand slacks off for a while. We are now use to $3.50 gas and we will get used to $500/thousand 223 ammo. My advise is to buy all the ammo and reloading supplies you can when you find that at "reasonable prices".

skoro
September 8, 2013, 11:33 AM
After the last panic (08-09) petered out, prices became more reasonable, but stayed above the pre-panic levels on many calibers. I expect the same to be true this time around. Once the scalpers start losing, it'll return to the shelves.

It's a waiting game. Once the panic subsides, that's the time to stock up, slowly. At least, that's what I did, picking up a box or two here and there a little at a time over a period of months. Haven't felt the need to buy ammo for at least two years now.

Mooseman
September 8, 2013, 12:41 PM
I'm not sure the gas price analogy works here. I have to drive to work but I don't have to shoot. Prices will only go as high as the market will bear. If people start shying away from the shooting sports because of cost then prices will have to drop down or companies run the risk of people finding other ways to spend their money and time.


That said, I don't think prices will drop back to pre-obama levels due to other factors like the rise in cost of materials and plain old inflation. I think we'll see a small permanent increase to cost but it won't be too crazy. Ammo prices here in PA seem to be becoming more normal already.

huntsman
September 8, 2013, 12:47 PM
$50 for 50 44mag rounds? Man that's rough.

I have seen slight increases in ammo prices where I shop (Walmart, Academy, BPS and my LGS). WWB 44 mag went up to $40 box of 50 from $38. In some cases I have seen decreases also. As much as $10 in a box of 308 I bought from Walmart during the panic for my father.
this is what I used to shoot
http://www.midwayusa.com/product/417493/remington-express-ammunition-44-remington-magnum-240-grain-jacketed-soft-point-box-of-25

Remington Express Ammunition 44 Remington Magnum 240 Grain Jacketed Soft Point Box of 25 $29.99

I realized times they are a changing when they stop selling it in 50 round boxes.

BigBore44
September 9, 2013, 12:16 AM
huntsman,
I just couldn't pay that either. I started buying 44 mag a couple years ago. I never had a FTF with WWB so I still shoot it occasionally when I have time to go. Probably have 400-500 rounds left and all the brass from the 1000+ rounds I bought. Thought I would get into reloading (and I did). I also have 2000 NIB Starline casings. I'm set for awhile.

I go to walmart every night/morning at about 01:30 to take a break from work and walk around. Have yet to see any .22 but everything else is there on one night or another. Prices have gone up. But I agree that until people stop buying ammo (boycott), ammo will never go back down. But people will never do it. They just can't seem to keep from buying even though they know that it's only sustaining the "market value" of the ammo they want to lower. Plus they are trying to stock up for the next panic. Oh what a tangled web we weave.....

Ignition Override
September 9, 2013, 01:44 AM
Are the predictions of fairly (previously) "normal" prices for .22LR based on the present buyers soon realizing that a large segment pay "sucker prices"? Maybe they only shoot .22.

If they were not still finding .22LR "sucker prices" acceptable, wouldn't there be more of a decrease of prices posted on "Ammobot", or at least the lowest online distributors would not always say "Sold Out"?

In another two months or so it won't matter anyway, if the rainy season comes early to west TN. Or we stand under a bridge and try to keep the rifles dry in the mist (-BR/-DZ). More wx always equals less consumption. If early wx is widespread, it should increase the downward price spirals.

Queen_of_Thunder
September 9, 2013, 07:54 AM
After the last panic (08-09) petered out, prices became more reasonable, but stayed above the pre-panic levels on many calibers. I expect the same to be true this time around. Once the scalpers start losing, it'll return to the shelves.

It's a waiting game. Once the panic subsides, that's the time to stock up, slowly. At least, that's what I did, picking up a box or two here and there a little at a time over a period of months. Haven't felt the need to buy ammo for at least two years now.
Again herein lies our problem. Its not getting to the shelves. Its simply not being delivered. So where is it?

BSA1
September 9, 2013, 09:24 AM
Queen of Thunder,

If you have not been shooting the last view months because of shortage of reloading components I respectfully submit you have not been looking in the right places and using the right search techniques. I have purchased more reloading supplies since the first of the year than probably the last 2 or 3 previous ones at pre-Banic prices. In fact I totally added shooting black powder revolver and have acquired plenty of everything (caps, wads, real BP, bullet mold) to keep me shooting it for a long time.

The reloading supply and ammo situation is improving. This weekend I found new 9mm brass in stock at pre-Banic prices. I have not made a effort to buy any 22 LR ammo since the Banic started but I also found a reputable Internet companies that are now accepting backorders for 22 LR at reasonable prices.

The key for me is flexibility and using the Internet for product searches instead of whining about the shortage and prices.

CoRoMo
September 9, 2013, 11:01 AM
Three years ago, the Walmart 12ga. 100rd boxes were $22. Today they are $26 and change. I do not expect that they will ever return to $22.

http://www.walmart.com/ip/Federal-Ammunition-12-Gauge-3-DRAM-100ct/17757345
http://i.walmartimages.com/i/p/00/02/94/65/11/0002946511843_500X500.jpg

DammitBoy
September 9, 2013, 11:30 AM
Prices on rifles and pistols are dropping fairly rapidly on gunbroker.com and at my local FFL's...

ny32182
September 9, 2013, 12:27 PM
AR stuff has bottomed back out, almost overnight; that happened much more gradually at the end of the last panic, and it is the first stuff to come back.

I don't really shoot .22, but I see it advertized all over the place; if you want to pay .06 to .08 a round for now, it is certainly available. A new local gunstore here literally has a small mountain of CCI mini mags in the middle of the floor at .08 each.

I've had much less trouble finding pistol bullets recently; in fact combining some I bought when I found them with some old back orders getting filled I'm pretty well covered up in pistol bullets for a while. I've probably added 10k to my stash just in the last month. Several of the more minor bullet manufacture are now shipping with known/short lead times.

Primers are still spotty but certainly better than they were a few months ago.

Basically if you don't think the ammo situation is improving you are either shooting something obscure or not looking very hard.

DammitBoy
September 9, 2013, 06:49 PM
AR stuff has bottomed back out, almost overnight; that happened much more gradually at the end of the last panic, and it is the first stuff to come back.



Yes, the gun racks at all the pawn shops in my area are full of AR's and priced where they ought to be.

Potatohead
September 9, 2013, 10:25 PM
With the threat of a new tax, the panic will start all over again......

just like gas, it went from $1.65 to $3.50 until we just accepted it as the new norm - ammo will do the same

the days of .02/.22lr are over................
yup...

jcwit
September 9, 2013, 10:33 PM
Every post here so far is pure speculation, no one knows for a fact what the future will bring.

Further if supply & demand was the soul factor regarding pricing, companies like Wal Mart or Harbor Freight would never exist.

horsemen61
September 9, 2013, 10:37 PM
just gonna go up IMHO :banghead:

bronco_buster
September 9, 2013, 10:52 PM
My LGS has placed self defense ammo "on sale." The value packs of WWB 45ACP just hit the "Sale" price of $45. WM had 45ACP WWB 100 packs around $38 if memory serves.

I don't buy ammo, I just build my component stash. I'm still making my 45 rounds for less than $0.20/round. Happily, the inflated price of ammo just served to make the break-even point for my reloading setup LOWER! I had calculated an initial need to produce around 8000 rounds to break even. But the prices dropped that number into the 4000 range, which I blew by last year!!

I look at things this way...brass is free. Its value halves with each use. After 10 reloads of the most expensive brass (LAPUA) it will be a fraction of a cent, but I give it a value of $0.01 because it was money spent. Despite an increase of $20 at the LGS for powder, it is still around $0.01/round for pistol powder. I still pick up bulk bullets for $0.12/round. Primers have gone from $25 to $40, so now I'm screwed by $0.04 instead of $0.025.

For the price of a box of ammo, I now pick up a set of dies. I've got enough powder to load for a few years, primers and bullets are the rate limiting items.

As for .22LR -- its dead to me. I picked up a couple cases of Wolf Match Ammo in the days following Newtown, which nearly TRIPLED later in the Spring!!!! Now, for the price of non-crap rimfire, I can load any of my centerfire rifles or pistols and have fun not only shooting but also in the testing and developing of new loads. Not to mention all the new reloading toys that I can now justify to the wife!!

Queen_of_Thunder
September 10, 2013, 02:40 PM
Queen of Thunder,

If you have not been shooting the last view months because of shortage of reloading components I respectfully submit you have not been looking in the right places and using the right search techniques. I have purchased more reloading supplies since the first of the year than probably the last 2 or 3 previous ones at pre-Banic prices. In fact I totally added shooting black powder revolver and have acquired plenty of everything (caps, wads, real BP, bullet mold) to keep me shooting it for a long time.

The reloading supply and ammo situation is improving. This weekend I found new 9mm brass in stock at pre-Banic prices. I have not made a effort to buy any 22 LR ammo since the Banic started but I also found a reputable Internet companies that are now accepting backorders for 22 LR at reasonable prices.

The key for me is flexibility and using the Internet for product searches instead of whining about the shortage and prices.
You were lucky. The only reliable source of ammo I found was from Academy and they had limits. When one can only get 1 box per caliber with a max of 3 calibers per day its hard to maintain the shooting schedule I had before the December incident. Of course that is if they had any ammo to sell. After 8 months of self imposed limits I can now return to a schedule of 1 match and 1 practice session a month as thats about the extent of my ability to replace what I shoot. Ammo supply while improving is still somewhat spotty and overly expensive.

As far as reloading goes I had just started assembling the items when it hit the fan and as we all know reloading supplies right down to dies and presses disappeared overnight and they too were on backorder and commanding huge prices in the secondary market.

Where many people haven't been able to find 22lr I've been able to purchase some 30,000 rounds over these past 8 months. Now 9mm and 45acp along with 40 S&W were nowhere to be found and are finally showing up. I traded 22lr for the 40 cal ammo that I needed and traded another portion as part of the price on a S&W 586. The remaining amount is for shooting and a small portion set aside for trade possibilities.

BSA1
September 10, 2013, 03:07 PM
A small amount of luck but mostly just being persistent.

I was lucky in that I found a small local sporting goods that not only manages to get powder in at bulk but sells it at pre-banic prices.

Flexible by willing to buy powder that I normally have not used in the past for a particular caliber.

Persistent by regularly checking with dealers on the Internet and getting on as many notify me and back order lists as possible. As a reloader I have actually recieved more notifications for supplies than having enough money to buy everything.

You certainly did fine on 22LR. Broaden your search using the Internet, check dealers web sites regularly, be flexible and buy supplies when they become available even though you may not be in real need of it (for example brass) and get on as many notify me and back order lists as possible.

justice06rr
September 10, 2013, 09:00 PM
Every post here so far is pure speculation, no one knows for a fact what the future will bring.

Further if supply & demand was the soul factor regarding pricing, companies like Wal Mart or Harbor Freight would never exist.

I will disagree with the first statement and say that prices will only remain the same and go up; it will never be below pre-panic/2012 again. This is for ammo of course, not guns, and only for the popular calibers like 9mm, 22lr, and 5.56.

What I mean is that a 50rd box of 9mm brass will never be below $10 again as it was in 2012, or 5.56/223 brass below $7/20rds etc. Prices can only go up due to demand and inflation. Of course you can expect some normal "dips" in pricing, but in reality prices always go up due to the state of the economy and depreciating value of the dollar.

The future always brings change, and normally its always an increase in price of a commodity--never a decrease.

larryh1108
September 10, 2013, 09:45 PM
I see the .22LR shortage going on into the new year. Why? Well, once the prices settle down and you start to see some inventory I believe that all who were caught short this go around will build their own stashes for the next one. Everyone who wanted it but couldn't find it for 9 months will buy thousands instead of hundreds, like they used to buy before. The days of going out for a brick on the way to the range are gone for a while. People will see some ammo and instead of buying 1 brick, they will buy all their pocketbook will allow. This will continue until these people have enough to be content for a while. This will perpetuate the shortage for the .22LR longer than any CF ammo, which is slowly getting back to the stores. However, the new "normal" prices will be higher than the old "normal prices" due to the cost of the components to make as well as fuel to move it.

MagnunJoe
September 10, 2013, 11:50 PM
Up, specially if Republicans lose the House in next year elections. Way up when Hillary gets to the White House.

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