Are you buying ammo at higher than market prices?


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Tirod
January 30, 2014, 10:32 AM
Somebody is. While we can't discuss how certain entrepreneurs are exploiting the market, we can discuss who is willing to be the buyer.

Have any of you purchased ammo at higher than market value off Gunbroker, or from a local individual who was offering it for sale?

If so, why was their price acceptable? Just your personal reasons, please, and lets avoid certain words or terms that are shutting down threads left and right.

"I bought higher priced ammo because - "

I have a theory it's basically fear. People are afraid of the potential direction of life in America and are reacting to that vision. They find it unacceptable. Hey, I agree - this isn't the America I planned to grow old in. Far from it, although things like Star Trek communicators and heated car seats are nice. But they aren't much in the way of building a safe and secure feeling about life.

Goes to the explosion of CCW.

So, why did you decide to spend more money on ammo? And please, explain what sources you are depending on, and why.

I'm thinking it's really a "fabric of life" type of consideration. Keep the focus on you and your reasons.

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jim243
January 30, 2014, 10:40 AM
So, why did you decide to spend more money on ammo? And please, explain what sources you are depending on, and why

Sorry but I won't buy at these prices not even components for my reloading.

As a reloader, I have over the years loaded quite a few rounds of each caliber that I shoot and really don't need anything additional at this time.

I reload to relax and I enjoy doing it, but I must say that in the last 8 months the equipment has not been used, I refuse to pay the stupid prices. When things get back to normal I will start up again.

Jim

jcwit
January 30, 2014, 10:45 AM
Nope, not even .22's.

No need to.

Spats McGee
January 30, 2014, 10:48 AM
Nope. Haven't needed to (thankfully).

Reloadron
January 30, 2014, 10:50 AM
Are you buying ammo at higher than market prices?

No, simply because I don't need it. I have maintained more than adequate supplies of the ammunition I shoot, I even have ammunition I don't shoot. When you have been shooting long enough and have seen ammunition droughts you learn to maintain a good supply.

I also roll my own and like manufactured ammunition I have maintained a good supply of components to roll my own as needed. While I can't roll my own rimfire I have had more than enough including ammunition for friends and family who need / want some.

So all in all I am fortunate. Were I not so fortunate would I pay the higher price if I really needed or wanted ammunition? Likely yes, shooting is something I truly enjoy.

I enjoy aged beef and if the price increases I pay the price so if I enjoy shooting why would I treat ammunition any differently?

Ron

Baldman
January 30, 2014, 10:52 AM
I've bought ammo when the market prices themselves were higher but have never purchased any from a non-retailer / wholesaler. I learned my lesson later then some with the most recent run on ammo. I try to pick up some a little at a time or buy bulk when there is a good price and luckily prices seem to be getting for what I need / use.

Would I ever buy above market price, I might if I found myself in a situation where I didn't properly plan. I would like to never find myself in that situation though.

TanklessPro
January 30, 2014, 10:54 AM
I only buy at market. I have bought very little in the past year or so.

22plinker
January 30, 2014, 11:12 AM
I'm not proud to say I overpaid for a pound of powder.
I was at the Peoria. IL .Bass Pro and they had a couple pounds of a powder I had been needing. They were unmarked but with that big a company I expected no surprises . At checkout I was hit with the $40 price for 1lb.
Rather than make a scene with a line behind me I just paid it.
Still regret that experience. We should always remember we vote with our wallet at these places .

RFMan
January 30, 2014, 11:26 AM
Nope. I have enough that I have not had to.

But I also don't shoot nearly as much as I would like, thanks to work and caring for elderly parents. I think that if folks had time to shoot as much as they would like, demand would climb even higher.

mgmorden
January 30, 2014, 11:32 AM
Whatever people are willing to buy for IS the market price. Sometimes the market price is at or below what you're willing to pay and you buy - sometimes its not, but just because something has been priced above one's own price point for buying doesn't mean it's not "market price".

That said, no, I'm generally not. I had a lot of reloading components stashed away that I've been shooting from. Starting to get a little low on powder and bullets, but 9mm bullets aren't hard to come by and while powder certainly is, a little goes a long way there so I don't need to buy much.

I've still got 5-6k primers left so I'm hoping that those will last until I can stock up again.

PRM
January 30, 2014, 11:38 AM
I did buy a bulk pack of .22 last summer at the "market gouge" price. Normally would not have done it, but I needed some .22s and was spending more in gas looking for them than the inflated cost.

Sam1911
January 30, 2014, 11:43 AM
Have any of you purchased ammo at higher than market value off Gunbroker, or from a local individual who was offering it for sale?

I'm not sure what you mean. "Market price" isn't a specific number, or even a knowable number. It is whatever the item is for sale at, at a given moment, averaged (perhaps) from the number of suppliers all able to deliver it at that moment.

The market price today will be different from the market price tomrrow. The market price for a brick of .22LR a year and a half ago was probably somewhere around $18. Today's market price is higher -- but still the market price.

To know what the market value of ammo is at 11:40 am today, I'd have to search the web and make some phone calls and collect a list of all the suppliers who could sell it to me today, and what prices they're asking. Then (one presumes) take an average of those prices and declare that your practical "market value."

So are you asking if people do that and then deliberately patronize those sellers asking for MORE money than their competitors are today? Doesn't make much sense to me.

Why would fear compel someone to go to all that trouble just to get the worst possible deal?

jrdolall
January 30, 2014, 11:46 AM
I have paid more than I wanted for a few items but have not done what you are driving at which is pay $89 for a brick of 22 or $1 per round for 223. I too have wondered who is buying all this ammo at these super inflated prices.

Most of what I have bought has been at fairly normal pricing but has required a lot more work and thought than in the past. Just walking into WM or the LGS and picking up a box of 45s on the way home doesn't cut it anymore.

Bubbles
January 30, 2014, 11:48 AM
Premise is false - buyers determine the market prices, not sellers. If no one buys then the price has to drop.

Or, I could offer .22 at $15 per brick, but have none in stock. That's not "market" either.

By definition an auction sets the "market" price because that is why a buyer is willing to pay.

PJSprog
January 30, 2014, 11:48 AM
No. I have plenty of my own handloads, and a good supply of components. I also have a healthy supply of rimfire ammo at the moment. Admittedly, though, we do shoot less now.

SFreed
January 30, 2014, 11:57 AM
Instead of Market price, I'll refer to it as my Acceptable price, which at this point in time is $0.05 per round and I will not spend more than that for 22lr. However, 6 months from now that may be a different story. I think it all depends on the perceived need of the individual. I've been fortunate to be able to reload most of what I shoot, and have cut way back on 22lr for the time being.

Robert
January 30, 2014, 12:08 PM
Nope, I reload all I need. For now. Components are tough to come by and I am starting to run low. I have not had to buy ammo in the last year and that was only for my brand new 375H&H. Now I reload that as well.

oneounceload
January 30, 2014, 12:23 PM
Are you buying ammo at higher than market prices?

If you are WILLINGLY giving your money to someone else for something you want, you are paying the current market price

Mike1234567
January 30, 2014, 01:37 PM
I've bought no ammo in the last three years except some .223 Rem because I had either shot or bartered it all away. After buying another .223 Rem rifle I wanted some ammo for it. I probably paid a little more than what I should have but 40 cents per round delivered for LC XM193 isn't too bad. I've only bought from large retailers but I wouldn't hesitate to buy from an individual if the price was right. I refuse to pay crazy-high prices for anything... ammo included.

oneounceload
January 30, 2014, 01:49 PM
.40 a round is the new normal for just about every .223 I have seen

gpb
January 30, 2014, 01:50 PM
I'm not sure how "market price" is defined. The only price that matters to me is what I'm willing to pay.

I will only buy ammunition from established retail outlets, and only if I think the price is reasonable. However, my idea of reasonable and your idea of reasonable probably differ.

I absolutely will not buy any ammunition from any secondary market source. For example, re-sellers and flippers.

LeonCarr
January 30, 2014, 01:53 PM
With the current "Market" prices on .22LR I can shoot reloaded .38 Wadcutters for less money, so I am doing that.

Just my .02,
LeonCarr

Queen_of_Thunder
January 30, 2014, 01:58 PM
The price you pay is wholly dependent upon how comfortable you are with the price. The last 2500 rounds of 22lr I've bought is running nearly 15 cents a round when you include shipping costs. Under these current conditions I'm willing to pay more to buy in quantities over and above the current restrictions retailers have put in place. I'm not saying I like paying these prices but its pay or don't play.

silicosys4
January 30, 2014, 02:08 PM
"Market price" is kind of a loaded term.
I have bought .22lr federal auto match ammo recently, at the going market price, which was $30/525 rds.
Is this still market price, since that's double what it was 8 months ago?
It was through a general store, sold out quickly, and was the only place to get it, hasn't been seen since....so I have to say yes, and the market is scarce right now.

I am pretty sure the market price isn't $125/5k like it was when I hoarded a few cases last year.

au01st
January 30, 2014, 02:49 PM
I have purchased CCI .22LR at $15/box, about double the normal price when you figure in taxes. I only need it for one gun. I have started shooting 1/2 a box instead of a whole box on range days. I got the 1911 .22 because it was cheaper than .45 and easy for practice. It still is. As long as I can get 100rd boxes of CCI below $20/box I will continue doing just that because it still fits the purpose for which I purchased the gun.

Everything else is normalizing here so no, I won't pay more than what Academy sells ammo for with other calibers.

jr_watkins
January 30, 2014, 03:01 PM
I have not with the exception of 10 boxes of WSP primers that were $3.99 each. That is higher than I expect to pay for primers, but there they were on the shelf at Academy (our sports store) and I couldn't walk past them for fear...well, you know.

I have continued to purchase Russian steel 7.62x39 at up to $5.99 on the 20 box. This is double what it was a few years ago, but still a bargain in my opinion.

Not buying anything at "panic" prices.

Arkansas Paul
January 30, 2014, 03:06 PM
I'm not.
I've paid a LITTLE more for components (I've paid $40 for 1k primers), but if it started approach the price of factory ammo I'd stop loading until it came back around too.

mboylan
January 30, 2014, 04:51 PM
People paying significantly more than MSRP for ammo are enabling the scalpers. The scalpers are not the problem. The people who buy from them are the main threat to most shooters. They are causing the price to skyrocket and establishing a much higher new normal.

herkyguy
January 30, 2014, 05:42 PM
I did for a while. It was to maintain my stores for what I shoot. I like to have a few hundred rounds for all of my calibers at the ready. Now I'm putting my money into reloading but trying to be much more smart about prices I'll pay for components.

I think the point of the thread is to see who is helping maintain the current market prices... I would say I was guilty of it for a while, but am over it now.

For example, i just picked up a winchester 100 rd pack of 9mm at Wally World for $26.00 and left the other packs for someone else. I could have easily picked up the max of 3 boxes, but didn't really need it.

then i stopped by my closest LGS and saw 100 round CCI .22LR for $30 and just laughed. That tells me people are still paying that much. I don't really like the shop at all, but i was bored so i stopped by. the guy running it isn't stupid, he probably knows someone will pay that premium price at some point.

SFreed
January 30, 2014, 05:44 PM
I have not with the exception of 10 boxes of WSP primers that were $3.99 each. That is higher than I expect to pay for primers...
Slightly off topic, but was just in Cabela's and as usual first stop was the reloading area to see what kind of powder is on the shelf. 1,000 CCI small pistol primers for $44.95!!! Almost soiled myself.

Dave P.
January 30, 2014, 05:56 PM
Yes I have, .22 long rifle.
Paid close to 10 cents a round vs. 3-4 cents a round in the past.
I shoot in a couple of leagues, need ammo to shoot and don't have
time or inclination to wander all over looking for ammo.
We're talking about 3500-4000 rounds over the last year.
Dave

Sam1911
January 30, 2014, 05:56 PM
1,000 CCI small pistol primers for $44.95!!! Almost soiled myself.Yeah, that is pretty bad, but not nearly as bad as it was at some points -- and it sure beats no primers at all! (And...it's Cabela's. Not gonna find a good deal there. You've got to pay for the huge animal displays somehow!)

Truth be told, if I was completely out of primers and really needed them, I'd have simply paid that much. Or decided I didn't need them.

That's supply and demand.

orionengnr
January 30, 2014, 06:50 PM
The last 2500 rounds of 22lr I've bought is running nearly 15 cents a round when you include shipping costs.
I can do math well enough in my head to get in the ballpark, but I was doubting myself...until I grabbed the calculator.

That is $82.50 for a 550 rd box.
Better you than me.

Fifteen cents a round for .22LR? I can load .45acp (.45LC. .41 Mag, and if I work at it, .38 Spl, .357 Mag, .380, 9mm, 10mm) for about twelve cents a round.

In case that didn't give it away...no. I have not bought any ammo at all for quite some time. Just components. :)

mrvco
January 30, 2014, 07:04 PM
What is the point of this thread exactly?

The only reason that I can think of to buy ammo at higher than "market price" is... well there really is no reason unless you need it right away and don't have the time or patience to shop around.

I've been paying .25/round for 9MM FMJ and .38/round for brass cased 223/556 delivered to my door. That's not quite pre-panic, but it is far better than it was so I'm not complaining.

berettaprofessor
January 30, 2014, 08:01 PM
If you buy it, that is the market price; the very definition of market. Your question should be "would you buy it at higher than MSRP?

ColtPythonElite
January 30, 2014, 08:03 PM
Nope

chris in va
January 30, 2014, 08:05 PM
Not ammo, but I now pay 50% more for primers. Ugh.

texasgun
January 30, 2014, 09:34 PM
I just ordered 500rds of 115gr Speer Lawman 9mm at $30/100rds + shipping.

Yes - ideally I would get WWB 115gr for $23 at the local Walmart... but I'm tired of going there just to see empty shelves....

MICHAEL T
January 30, 2014, 09:38 PM
I want to know, why still so called ammo shortage . This been going on a year now . I would have thought the ammo company's would have caught up. My wal mart has shot gun shells and some rifle . No real popular calibers. only 22 I have seen is 22 short. and a 2 box limit. I complaint to manager and he says that they get what sent them. That all . My dealer he's buying Russian ammo that I won't use or these high priced magic bullets That cost you 50 bucks to load a 1911. Again says that all he can get Forget 22

I have always had some stored ammo for when I want to shoot or just in case. But now I won't even shoot that can't replace. I will save it for the revolution.

3 MEN AND A BOAT
January 30, 2014, 09:55 PM
I got a reloading press for Christmas and bought some primers at a LGS for $45 for 1000. I didn't realize it was that bad of a price, I was just happy to find them, as it gave me a chance to use my press.
Paul

Apachedriver
January 30, 2014, 10:00 PM
Slightly off topic, but was just in Cabela's and as usual first stop was the reloading area to see what kind of powder is on the shelf. 1,000 CCI small pistol primers for $44.95!!! Almost soiled myself.

Hahaha, Cabela's…I like them and all, but if it's like most everything else they sell, I wouldn't be surprised if the primers weren't microstamped with their logo, hence the pricing...lol.

jcwit
January 30, 2014, 10:13 PM
So the scalpers who are selling ammo at inflated prices that they purchased from retails outlets are setting the market value?

Using this logic the big box retail stores have no idea what the market value is.

OOOOOOOOOOOOoooooKAY

Pigs fly too.

M2 Carbine
January 30, 2014, 10:34 PM
I buy almost no factory ammo but I recently bought 4,000 rounds of 22 TMC for a new Rock Island pistol. The price was normal for this round.

Seeing the writing on the wall when obama first came on the scene I bought many thousands of rounds of Wal Mart 550 22LR bulk packs at $17-$19.

And stocked up on thousands of primers and bullets to reload.
During the last shortage I got down to 10,000 small pistol primers. I said that won't happen again.



1,000 CCI small pistol primers for $44.95!!! Almost soiled myself.
At the last gun show I lucked on a case (5,000) of large Pistol primers for $125. I would have bought a couple more cases but that's all he had.



.

Twiki357
January 31, 2014, 12:34 AM
Not a chance! I reload every caliber I shoot except 22’s. Fortunately, I have a decent supply of everything I need for the next few years.

Ignition Override
January 31, 2014, 01:42 AM
Nope, don't need to. The pair of SKS have become my ".22LR" so to speak. 7.62x39 is at .22/round.

Buying three small 50-rd. boxes of .22LR in November from a retail shop in Clarkesville TN induced a little guilt, having only 3 & 1/2 bricks from before the panic. I won't even use .22LR until approx. late June, when wearing hearing protectors needed for centerfire ammo causes sweat to run into one's eyes with Memphis heat/humidity. These protectors are not worn around my .22 rifles.

We all know about Walmart-but how about at the Other Places such as Dick's or Academy? There must be a general "market rate" for a 50-rd. box of lower-priced brands such as Federal, Win. etc.

Is the overall (Non-Walmart, retail) still about 3 times the pre-panic price?

bannockburn
January 31, 2014, 06:46 AM
Short answer: nope. I haven't bought any overpriced ammo and don't plan to. Stocked up on ammo over the years and haven't had as many chances to get to the range so I'm not using much if any these days.

pockets
January 31, 2014, 07:31 AM
Haven't bought ammunition in at least two years now.
I stocked up when the prices were far lower, knowing that it was not going to go down.


.

SFreed
January 31, 2014, 07:42 AM
I got a reloading press for Christmas and bought some primers at a LGS for $45 for 1000. I didn't realize it was that bad of a price, I was just happy to find them, as it gave me a chance to use my press.
Paul

And as many have already stated, this determines market price. If I didn't already have a supply of primers, I would have purchased some from Cabela's. Same with 22 ammo.
Have fun reloading Paul!! It will become a hobby of it's own!

Queen_of_Thunder
January 31, 2014, 07:44 AM
I can do math well enough in my head to get in the ballpark, but I was doubting myself...until I grabbed the calculator.

That is $82.50 for a 550 rd box.
Better you than me.

Fifteen cents a round for .22LR? I can load .45acp (.45LC. .41 Mag, and if I work at it, .38 Spl, .357 Mag, .380, 9mm, 10mm) for about twelve cents a round.

In case that didn't give it away...no. I have not bought any ammo at all for quite some time. Just components. :)


Actually your math is wrong. Its $75 pe 500 which also includes shipping costs. Also none of the calibers you mention will work in my Hammerli.

huntsman
January 31, 2014, 08:25 AM
Since I consider the retail market prices to exorbitant there's no way in hell I'll pay higher quasi-black-market prices.

Mike1234567
January 31, 2014, 09:04 AM
Conspiracy Theory: Maybe they're treating ammo like gasoline... drive the prices up to $4/gal so we're happy to see it come down to $3 and accept it never returning to $2.:D

Tony k
January 31, 2014, 10:08 AM
I use the MSRP as a resaonable max price for me.

I have to admit that in the months after Sandy Hook when antis werre foaming at the mouth for gun control, I paid too much for a firearm, but not ammo. I had been shopping around for an AR in the fall of 2012. My plan was to wait until after Christmas and hope that I could get a sale price on a particular AR I wanted (a remington varmint hunting model). Boy was that a mistake! After Sandy Hook, I was pretty convinced that an AWB was about to happen, so I paid $1200 for an $800 bushmaster. It wasn't even the one I wanted. Convincing myslef that paying 1.5 times the MSRP for that gun was a humbling and embarassing experience. But it was the only one I could find and better than not having one at all.

Before Dec 2012 I took easy availability of ammo for granted. The way antis exploited the Sandy Hook tragedy changed me from a passive "fudd" to someone way more involved in the RTKBA and the real intent of the 2A. The tyrants came out of the woodwork, and I have to admit that I was shocked at their strident agression. So at the time (about a year ago) I was willing to pay a premium for certain things because I was one of those people not prepared.

The events after Sandy Hook also got me in to reloading because I could'nt even find ammo for my 270! I started buying components here and there for all my calibers.

I got in to bidding on gunbroker. Plenty of gouging there, but my strategy was to set my max bid at the MSRP from the manufacturer's website. I was outbid on 90% of the auctions, so I know for a fact that there are a lot of people out there who paid through the nose for guns, ammo, and reloading components in 2013.

Sam1911
January 31, 2014, 10:35 AM
So the scalpers who are selling ammo at inflated prices that they purchased from retails outlets are setting the market value? No, but their BUYERS are. Just because someone buys a brick of .22 at $60 doesn't mean that IS the market value (for everyone), but it does influence the market value and help pull it up. Just as the fact that a few people can still buy that brick for $18 helps to draw it down. All of that works together to set market value.

Ever buy lobster? Menu says, "market price." That doesn't mean some number the government sets, or that "Mr. Market" sells lobster for. That means, "whatever we can buy it for today -- as determined by mow much there is for sale, and how many people are trying to buy it." The guys holding out to get $30 per lb. are helping to set the market price just as much as the guys willing to let it go for $10 per lb.

Using this logic the big box retail stores have no idea what the market value is. Oh, they have a better idea of the average market value at any given time than you or I, probably. But their store philosophy and strategy says they can afford to give up lost revenue on that product to keep people coming into the store and buying other things.

In the end, that strategy hurts you -- if you don't like "scalpers" -- because devaluing that commodity gives the scalpers enough incentive to come in and buy them out every time the truck shows up. They know the market value is much higher than WalMart's price and so they'll make a tidy profit flipping it.

If Walmart would use a dynamic price structure that followed the actual supply/demand curve, their price right now would be SOMEWHAT higher, (though they could still undercut the market a little), but it would remove the incentive for folks to buy ammo to resell.

And, if would also soften up the resolve of the "hoarders" (you hate them too, right?) by making their decision to buy lots of extra a little more tempered by cost.

MacTech
January 31, 2014, 11:48 AM
Nope, have not and will not buy ammo at HTMP, I will buy it at retail prices (self imposed upper limit on bulk/plinking ammo is around $25 or less, the closer prices get to that sub-$20 price the better, and it does get used, myself, my nephew and niece all shoot....

As far as general backyard plinking goes, the airguns get the most trigger time, Benji 392 for me, Sheridan Blue Streak .20 and Daisy Red Ryder for nephew, Daisy Buck for niece....

oneounceload
January 31, 2014, 12:03 PM
^^^ SAM nailed it - well said!

oneounceload
January 31, 2014, 12:07 PM
I want to know, why still so called ammo shortage . This been going on a year now . I would have thought the ammo company's would have caught up

Because we added several million more gun owners? because there are those who wait at the counter buying everything and then try to resell it? because we have folks who never had more than box or two at home and would just buy some on the way to the range now feeling the need to buy 5 year's worth?

We are our own worst enemy in perpetuating this supply/demand situation. Everyone wants it to stop, but they are also the first to come on here and other boards and brag how they just cleaned out some supplier or store.

Sam1911
January 31, 2014, 12:20 PM
Because bringing on more capacity in manufacturing, beyond "a little more," requires whole new manufacturing plants to be built.

Lets see: feasibility studies undertaken and completed, new business plans/strategies written out, loans negotiated and approved, land bought, buildings designed, production lines designed and engineered, bidding, contract writing, bid awards, groudbreaking and construction of buildings, manufacturing, delivery, and installation of manufacturing equipment, fire suppression and other life-safety concerns handled, infrastructure improvements like new power lines and water management, environmental impact reviews and OSHA/EPA compliance reviews, staff hired and trained, resource streams increased ... if possible, logistics sorted out and about 100,000 other details. That's going to take more than a day or two. That's likely to take more than a YEAR or two.

Devilfrog
January 31, 2014, 12:26 PM
Nope, have enough reloads and components to hold me over. .22LR is hard to find but I have managed to pick some up here and there at "normal" prices

FROGO207
January 31, 2014, 03:37 PM
I have "set aside" ammo and reloading supplies for years. Used to keep ahead on hand what I would normally use up in 2 years. Then for some reason ten years ago I stepped it up to 5 years ahead supplies of reloading stuff and .22. Boy I am glad I had the funds and time to do it when looking back today. No purchases of any major stuff in 2 years and I can wait it out a fair while longer because I slowed down my ammo consumption and reloading experimentation for now.

I also have several rolls of tin foil if some of you run short.:)

housecat
January 31, 2014, 04:21 PM
No. I refuse to pay more for 22 lr than I can reload center fire cartridges for. If the time comes that components are unavailable at reasonable price, I'll stop reloading. I've been wanting a RWS Model 48 for a long time. I have enough center fire components to have more than a few boxes of ammo each caliber.

Queen_of_Thunder
January 31, 2014, 04:37 PM
Because bringing on more capacity in manufacturing, beyond "a little more," requires whole new manufacturing plants to be built.

Lets see: feasibility studies undertaken and completed, new business plans/strategies written out, loans negotiated and approved, land bought, buildings designed, production lines designed and engineered, bidding, contract writing, bid awards, groudbreaking and construction of buildings, manufacturing, delivery, and installation of manufacturing equipment, fire suppression and other life-safety concerns handled, infrastructure improvements like new power lines and water management, environmental impact reviews and OSHA/EPA compliance reviews, staff hired and trained, resource streams increased ... if possible, logistics sorted out and about 100,000 other details. That's going to take more than a day or two. That's likely to take more than a YEAR or two.
You forgot a major hurdle there which is Local Zoning Codes.

Sam1911
January 31, 2014, 06:02 PM
Ok, sure. I was envisioning the process for a firm that was simply going to expand next door to existing facilities.

Even so, that's not always a perfectly seamless proposition. Municipalities and Counties often require impact studies and fees to see if the infrastructure (power, water, streets and traffic control, even schools to meet the needs of the families of new workers) can handle the new demand.

Master Blaster
January 31, 2014, 06:23 PM
Cabelas will soon be opening a new store near where I live if they are gouging on reloading supplies, I will simply pass on buying anything from them and stick to online sources and local mom and pop shops who do not gouge.

oneounceload
January 31, 2014, 08:44 PM
It isn't gouging, it is called RETAIL, and they have about 5 million in that new store they have to pay off.

If you willingly pay their ASKING price, then you did not get "gouged". If you decide to not pay their asking price, you did not get gouged. It is, therefore, impossible to be gouged. You either decide that the price asked is worth it to you or it isn't.

JTHunter
January 31, 2014, 10:33 PM
In the past 2 years, the only ammo I have bought has been .38 Specials and .357 Magnum as that is what I need for my mother's gun and mine. The prices I paid were higher than I liked but still fairly reasonable. :rolleyes:
The one that I overpaind for was some Winchester 555 bulk .22LR for $29.99. :fire: :cuss: At least that turned out to be the most reasonable price I've seen (when I've even been able to FIND .22s! :eek: ) in that same two years.

PRM
January 31, 2014, 10:58 PM
It isn't gouging, it is called RETAIL, and they have about 5 million in that new store they have to pay off.

If you willingly pay their ASKING price, then you did not get "gouged". If you decide to not pay their asking price, you did not get gouged. It is, therefore, impossible to be gouged. You either decide that the price asked is worth it to you or it isn't. - oneounceload

You can call it whatever makes you feel good, but it is what it is!

http://www.yourdictionary.com/price-gouging

"Price Gouging - Business Definition

Taking advantage of a lack of competition and selling at an especially high price. For example, auto dealers are known to engage in price gouging when a much-sought-after model is in short supply."

Blue Thunder
January 31, 2014, 11:08 PM
The last commercial ammo I bought was before the 2008 Elections as I did not like what I saw. I already had a ton of reloading supplies from the Clinton years, boolits, primers, brass and powder. Having gotten my formulas down to two different powders and primers to two brands the rest is easy. That commercial ammo was 2K of Ranger T in 9MM, 1K of Ranger T in 40, and 1K of Ranger T in 45ACP. I already had 5 bricks of 22LR from the mid 1990's all of which go bang. I don't have to pay inflated prices as I likely have enough to last me until I go to the big range in the sky. I am down to shooting around 5K rounds of ammo per year now and I rotate the caliber when going to the range so I do not run supplies of one caliber down. This also does not count a few K of 38Spl and 357Mag that are not reloaded but the components are here.

jmorris
January 31, 2014, 11:14 PM
No, I walked right past a dozen federal 550 round bulk packs at Walmart a few hours ago. At almost $20 a box, I'll pass.

KNO3
January 31, 2014, 11:20 PM
I shoot 9mm, 223/5.56, and .22lr.

Luckily, I was able to stockpile around 3 thousand rounds of 9mm and .223/5.56 and didn't need to pay the ridiculous prices we've seen over the last 2 years.

The only ammo I purchased from a private individual was .22lr. I paid $.06- $.08 a round for Remington 525 rnd and/or Blazer 525 rnd boxes twice over the last 2 years, for a total of about 3500 rnds. I thought that was (and still is) a good deal and was thankful the guy was a decent human being.
I did pay $30 for 100 rounds of CCI stingers about a year ago from my LGS, and out of shame, have not yet fired them.

My local BiMart has consistently carried 5.56 for $.38 - $.40/rnd for the last 8 months or so. While that is higher than in years past, I can afford it.

9MM has been hard to find at reasonable prices, so I'm getting low, but I can bide my time until I find a deal.

I still find a lot of variability in ammo prices, but the overall trend is looking brighter.

skoro
February 1, 2014, 10:37 AM
I've purchased almost NO ammo at any price for the past year. Following the 2008-9 ammo panic, I slowly built up my stockpile so that I could avoid the next one. Which hit us in Dec 2012 and is still well underway.

Tirod
February 1, 2014, 10:58 AM
Ok, let me ask another question: Is the price of ammo suffering the same market dynamics as propane?

High demand, shortage of supply, high prices.

My mother in law always made it a point to resupply propane in the summer when market price was lowest. While a large majority of respondents in the thread have said they won't buy ammo at "high" prices, some have said they do, and will continue to do so. Price isn't an issue to them.

Maybe it WAS a loaded question, and it's been pretty obvious those that ARE spending more than many of us would tolerate have no regard for our reasoning. THEY WILL SPEND WHATEVER IT TAKES TO GET AMMO.

Some later decide they won't do it again, others are still doing it with no remorse whatsoever. Therefore, nothing posted on the internet is going to sway them. They are likely laughing at the "whiners" who can't play the game on the new playing field.

The market demographic of firearms ownership has obviously moved up the income scale and the result under panic conditions is that the less economically blessed among us are being left behind. That implies that buyers of firearms who enjoy multiple purchases a year are the cause of the current situation.

Just because they haven't raised their hands to id themselves in this conversation doesn't mean they aren't out there. It puts the buyers squarely in the ballpark as gun enthusiasts who don't lack the resources to spend for ammo.

So what we are hearing about it are those with less money or will to purchase ammo, trying to get the rules changed so those with more money can't dominate the game.

That's like saying that football players have to be equal in muscle mass to play a fair game, or putting a height restriction on pro basketball players.

That kind of thinking leads to laws making things "fair," when in reality, it restricts our rights. Non gun owners are trying to do that as we speak - outlaw guns to make it "fair."

I don't care for the price of ammo right now either, but I'm not going to play into the hands of those who would support MORE restrictions on the industry and my rights. I see past my personal interests to the bigger picture. Others don't, and to get what they want, they would sell us out to get it.

The current situation on ammo prices is no different than propane in that regard. What did the propane industry do? They turned around a tanker full to make a better profit on selling it here, not overseas.

It's what we do, if you want ammo, either reload, or pay more. Those are the choices, not posting on the net about how you can't play the game.

We really didn't get to many who replied they were spending more. That's because MOST are, and it's obvious. The ammo is still flying off the shelf, they voted with their pocket books. They don't reload, they don't have large stocks in reserve, they just pay it and move on. The stuff certainly isn't piling up on the mark down shelf for lack of sales.

plmitch
February 1, 2014, 11:34 AM
I'm paying current market value and I'm fine with it. Shooting is an expensive hobby, can't afford then don't do it.

Duckdog
February 1, 2014, 12:57 PM
I actually t to see one of the profiteers in person yesterday afternoon. I stopped at the local Walmart and they had what appeared to be 4 boxes 22 LR behind the glass at a reasonable price, so being no one was there, I proceeded to wait for the clerk. After about 5 minutes, a gal pulls up on one of those motorized carts, and goes back and forth over and over, looking at the ammo. Well, we start talking and she asks if I'm waiting, and I tell her yes. She then proceeds to tell me how her son, who works in the automotive department called her, but she did not say why. Well, eventually a fellow shows up and asks if what I'm looking for and she blats out she want 3 boxes of that 22 LR ammo before he even finishes his sentence.. He asks me again what I would like and I said, well, I guess just one of those boxes now, because she is thinking she's going to get her max of 3 boxes per day regardless of me, who was there first by a longshot. The fellow then says he has more behind the others, so I tell him three then. She then gets all pissy and asked him why she can not have more and because there is no law regarding a limit, and that she should get all she wants. The clerk calmly tells her that it is to stop the scalping of ammo preventing all but just a few people from cleaning out the ammo to re-sell and that is why the store policy is just three boxes. He then went on the tell her that it's the same few people that are buying all the 22 ammo and are there right at 7:00 AM every morning. He also told me later she was one of those people. He told me that what they have done was hold off stocking ammo on the shelves until different times each day they get it in to screw these few folks up. It was pretty obvious to me that this gals son called her when he knew they had restocked, so his "scalping" mom could come down and fill up again. Now some can defend that all they want, but it's just plain screwing the working person who has a job that can not be there every day to clean the ammo out. IMO it's a sad way of existence feeding off the market like that. This ammo scare is no different than the others, except that now we have outlets on the internet that allow these folks to do business like no other time before. In the past, they would have bought all of this product and would have had to advertise in the paper or use word of mouth to get rid of it. Now they can advertise nation wide with the click of a button via craigs list or gun broker, etc.

Ehen people realize what is going on and decide to stop supporting these people, gun related products will appear on the shelf again.

Torian
February 1, 2014, 01:08 PM
Somebody is. While we can't discuss how certain entrepreneurs are exploiting the market, we can discuss who is willing to be the buyer.

Have any of you purchased ammo at higher than market value off Gunbroker, or from a local individual who was offering it for sale?

If so, why was their price acceptable? Just your personal reasons, please, and lets avoid certain words or terms that are shutting down threads left and right.

"I bought higher priced ammo because - "

I have a theory it's basically fear. People are afraid of the potential direction of life in America and are reacting to that vision. They find it unacceptable. Hey, I agree - this isn't the America I planned to grow old in. Far from it, although things like Star Trek communicators and heated car seats are nice. But they aren't much in the way of building a safe and secure feeling about life.

Goes to the explosion of CCW.

So, why did you decide to spend more money on ammo? And please, explain what sources you are depending on, and why.

I'm thinking it's really a "fabric of life" type of consideration. Keep the focus on you and your reasons.
No. I believe the problem is not enough people know constitutes the base line market price vs. an overpriced product.

In their ignorance, instead of shopping around online for a better deal, or walking away from a storefront charging inflated prices, they buy thinking either they are getting a good deal, or that they need to stock up due to ammo shortage hype. It just perpetuates the cycle.

wow6599
February 1, 2014, 01:15 PM
I will overpay a little for .22lr, but won't be 'gouged'.

I walked past all the 9mm, 5.56 and .45 ACP you could want at my local WM this morning. I'll keep on loading my own. Also, the gal who always works the firearm dept said the same guys came in this morning who always buy up the .22lr......she said she lied to them and said they didn't have any. When they left she put it out and 2 cases went in about an hour.....I was about 30 minutes late.

DSAPT9
February 1, 2014, 01:16 PM
It may have all ready been mentioned but with the government printing so much money and we are buying our own debt the dollar has been devaluated causing prices to increase then add this to the panic and you get higher prices. With the dollar being weaker at this time you probably will not see pre panic prices for a while if ever epically on any imported ammo like Wolf or Tula. J&G Sales has 7.62x39 for 239 per 1000 about 275 shipped to your door and I do not see it going down much more than that for a while.

I lived through the first assault weapon ban so I learned a long time ago to buy what you can when you can because the price will always go up. I still have 20 boxes of 9mm with a price tag of 6.99 and 525 bricks of 22 with a price tag of 8.99.

So what is market price when I first got into 7.62x39 it was 89 per thousand then just before the panic it was 169 now I seen someone say they will not buy it at more than 209. I personally would like to see it back to 89 per case.

Yes I just bought 3 cases (3000 rounds) of 7.62x39 to replace what I shot over the last year or so and yes it was higher than I wanted to pay but I doubt It will ever see 89 per case in my life time again and I need it to stay proficient.

Impureclient
February 1, 2014, 01:16 PM
Once all Walmarts take that practice of putting stock out randomly, .22 ammo will drop in price dramatically. With scalpers having first dibs at 7 in the morning,
making ammo drops random removes their profit(time = money) and we all win. No reason to buy .22 at double and triple the norm when it's readily available at Walmart.

It's really amazing, and sad, the impact Walmart has over our lives.

Duckdog
February 1, 2014, 04:34 PM
I agree. It would be nice if they all staggered their stocking times. It really wouldn't tale long for those that are there at 7AM every morning to stop going if it was less of a sure thing. It kind of torqued me when I found our her kid, that works there, called her to come in and pick them up. I was seriously thinking about calling the manager to whine about it.

They also had a good supply of other ammo as well, so things might be starting to turn around. Primers are now readily available and some powders are hitting the market again as well. Of course, those items are harder for the profiteers to ship, so I have a feeling that those items will stabilize quicker.

The thing that surprises me is brass. To answer the OP's question, I will pay a bit over what things were, but I will not be shellacked and pay overinflated prices.

grimjaw
February 1, 2014, 04:36 PM
Are you buying ammo at higher than market prices?

No, I am not. Ammunition manufacturers have access to information that I don't regarding the market, but if this is to be the "new normal," I'll be abnormal and go without. Maybe they think it's like "The Matrix," where the Architect says "there are levels of survival we are prepared to accept."

Ignition Override
February 1, 2014, 06:00 PM
One can try to sell a gun which only uses costly centerfire ammo (reloadable or not).
I briefly considered selling the M-1 Service Grade Special bought last Aug. 31st in Anniston.

One can use money from a sale to buy one of three different centerfire types which use surplus ammo at .22/.21/.17/round: An SKS/AK clone/Mini 30, a Mosin Nagant, or AK-74 clone.

CharlieDeltaJuliet
February 1, 2014, 06:05 PM
Nope, I still buy from my LGS or Midway USA at normal prices of I pass. I bought .22's at $193+ shipping per 5000 and $17.88 for Remington match ..223. (Black box 69gr SMK iirc).

oneounceload
February 1, 2014, 07:08 PM
Oh BS PRM,
There is PLENTY of competition, just go to any flea market, small gun show, etc. so your argument does not wash. (and relying on WIKI for facts is incredulous anyway).

Called free market, supply and demand, capitalism - take your pic. NO ONE is FORCING you to buy from them EVER, so it is not gouging. You either agree to pay the ASKING price or you do not. You either try to negotiate, or you do not. You then decide to walk away or you do not. In every case, it is YOUR decision to participate in the free market experience.

Duckdog
February 1, 2014, 07:58 PM
No offense, but when these people are making it their living to buy all of a product up before most others can purchase said product, and then taking advantage of gullible customers, IT IS controlling the supply, which by decreasing the supply, is driving up the demand, thereby controlling the demand as well. It's a cycle that only ends when another element is either added or taken away, such as a manufacturer increasing supply, or people just refusing to purchase the product at inflated prices, thus lowering demand.

Is it capitalism? Sure. Is it ethical in this case? I guess it all depends on your view. I personally could not make a living off of this situation, knowing I was part of the problem, but heck, if the people doing it can sleep at night, so be it.

Ignition Override
February 1, 2014, 08:04 PM
Impureclient: Walmart's never gonna have influence over my life-it can be too short.

If a guy mostly has several .22LR guns, some of us would gladly sell a couple.
When the Next serious ammo panic hits, .22LR guns might become even more of an endangered species.

With only four 'bricks' left, we can end up shooting .22LR at .10-.15/rd. or 5.45x39 at .17/round, if the other guns can provide the cash for the rifle. Some of us aren't going to spend the imminent retirement years in Walmart, whether at 0700 or 1400.

PRM
February 1, 2014, 09:12 PM
Relying on WIKI??? Now that's funny.

If the definition fits, then that's what it is, the rest is just spin. Reconcile it to yourself anyway you need too. If it makes you feel better that no such thing ever exists in your universe - good for you.

http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/price-gouging.html

http://www.wordiq.com/definition/Gouging

http://www.webster-dictionary.org/definition/price%20gouging

Tirod
February 2, 2014, 09:04 AM
There's a concept that "somebody" is buying up all the ammo before the "rest" of us can get to it.

The point is they are making an effort, and others casually check in when getting a gallon of milk. The fallacy of buying ammo in a BigBox is that they are NOT the major source of it. They were geared to selling a box or two at a time, and getting resupplied a box or two at a time.

And that supply rate is exactly what the distributors are making them stick to - or their other customers wouldn't get squat. And if they cut off BigBox completely, then they would never see the business again.

If you are buying bulk lots of merchandise, you don't go out and hit up five retail outlets for one box each. The costs are too high - unless, just maybe, the people you are selling it to don't care and will spend the extra to get it.

Don't forget the obvious - all the high priced ammo is selling, somebody is buying it, and I would suspect that it's not the respondents to on thread on the internet. It's the folks with more money or credit and they don't want to wait for the industry to catch up, they want ammo NOW.

Same for the price of the Honda Civic in the day, the dealers were getting $2,000 over MSRP. Nobody complained about it, they just lined up, and the price wasn't lowered. If anything, it became the market value.

It's what has been said over and over - if ammo is scarce, make the same effort to get it, and bid over what the other buyers are willing to pay.

That is exactly what the successful buyers are doing, and the whiners are not. Don't have to like it, but it is capitalism.

Unless somebody wants to start regulating the sale of ammo, which, of course, would be in none of our best interest. Nose of the camel under the tent.

Elkins45
February 2, 2014, 09:11 AM
The only ammo I buy is 22, CCW handgun and shotgun shells. I have enough 22LR and CCW ammo on hand that I'm just riding out the panic, and I may never fire a shotgun shell again.

I would buy some 22 just so I can participate, but I've yet to see it on a store shelf anywhere.

mgkdrgn
February 2, 2014, 11:05 AM
What you remember something selling for 5 years ago is -not- the market price -today-.

What somethings sells for today -is- the market price -today.

You can't get a brand new Buick for $500 either ... get over it.

M2 Carbine
February 2, 2014, 12:55 PM
A few days ago a customer called the manager of the local gun store, at his house, to tell him the local Wal Mart had a hundred plus 250 round boxes of Remington 22LR for $11 a box.

The manager got out of bed to drive to Wal Mart to buy the limit of 3 boxes.
The manager wanted the 22 for his own use because he hasn't been able to get but two bricks of 22 for the store since the shortage started.

The manager was going to send his wife to Wal Mart to get 3 more boxes but they were sold out that fast.

I don't think the 22 situation is going to change anytime soon.


Personally, I planned ahead, so have no ammo shortage.





.

PedalBiker
February 2, 2014, 01:02 PM
Who gets to decide what the "market" price is?

I have not purchased outside of my normal channels (LGSs, Midway, Ammunitiontogo and Cabelas)

Funny, when stocks and house prices go ballistic it's the "market" and everyone wants "in", when it's commodities, food, gas or whatever when prices go ballistic it's "hoarding" or "gouging".

Welding Rod
February 2, 2014, 01:05 PM
No. If the prices go high, I just nurse my stash (some of which is a couple of decades old) and/or stop shooting a particular cartridge until I can find a "normal" price. To do otherwise only perpetuates the problem.

larryh1108
February 2, 2014, 06:15 PM
Think about all of the new gun owners we have. Imagine a few million people who, for whatever reason, went out to buy their first handgun. Now, they go to get ammo and see the 9mm ammo, previously about $10/50, now $16.99. These new shooters don't realize $16.99 is high so they buy a few boxes and move on. When they go for more ammo, they expect it to be $16.99 and it is. No sticker shock there. The same with bulk pack .22LRs. If they see a box at Store X and it's $49.95, they'll pick it up and think $50 for 500 doesn't sound so bad.

Now, multiply this by a million or two and what we have is what we see, people who don't know any better buying ammo at prices we'll never pay. They don't see the problem like we do. They want ammo, they see ammo, they buy ammo. Free market at work. Obviously there's a buyer for every over-priced box of ammo. The prices will stay high as long as they sell it at those prices. Why would they lower prices when they already sell everything they put out at inflated prices?

Onward Allusion
February 2, 2014, 06:37 PM
No. Never purchased ammo on Gunbroker. I think people buying ammo on Gunbroker are morons who are contributing to the panic.

I will not feed the scalpers, especially when ammo can still be purchased in the stores and other decent online sites at close to pre-panic prices. If I really wanted/needed additionally ammo, I'd take some time off in the morning and wait in line at one of the big boxes. OR better yet, use ammoseek.com and patronize some of the more honest sellers.

arizona98tj
February 2, 2014, 06:50 PM
Nope. Not a single round has been bought from an individual, GB, or any other such outlet. When I need to, I buy from from the LGS and local big box stores. Most of what I shoot are my own reloads.

jcwit
February 2, 2014, 07:12 PM
To those out there who believe people other than retail outlets are setting the "fair market price" or whatever you wish to call it, frankly you are full of it. You may also decide just what "it" is.

Furthermore this madness does not effect me at all, most if not all of my ammo was purchased long before anyone even heard of an Obama for Senate.

Strahley
February 2, 2014, 07:16 PM
Nope, and I won't. It's sad that in a time where lawful gun owners have to stick together and fight for our rights (in the courtroom), some of us are severely price gouging each other

I'm talking about the ones who camp out at Walmart and buy several boxes of .22LR for $20 each, then turn around and sell them for $100+ a pop on GB or something. Meanwhile, casual Joe has been looking for a couple hundred rounds of .22LR so he can take his kids plinking with their new youth rifles they got for Christmas, but can't find any of the shelves anywhere

Sure glad I can handload my own rounds

Warp
February 2, 2014, 07:47 PM
I have not purchased ammo privately or on Gunbroker. Ever, actually.

I have sold both ways in the past year.

To those out there who believe people other than retail outlets are setting the "fair market price" or whatever you wish to call it, frankly you are full of it. You may also decide just what "it" is.

Furthermore this madness does not effect me at all, most if not all of my ammo was purchased long before anyone even heard of an Obama for Senate.

You are wrong.

Supply and Demand.

We learned it in high school.

Go look it up.

Sam1911
February 2, 2014, 07:47 PM
To those out there who believe people other than retail outlets are setting the "fair market price" or whatever you wish to call it, frankly you are full of it. You may also decide just what "it" is.

That's probably me. Sorry, I'm just full of it. I can't help it. I'm full of it, and it stinks, and you'd probably just HATE to be around me. Gotta watch out for sharp objects -- I'm so full of it I might BURST! :D



But anywhooo ... I was taught that "the market" included all those in a given area and time who were buying and selling something, therefore any legitimate "market price" had to reflect and take into account all the prices being paid for that item at that moment.

You may thank WalMart for keeping their prices lower than supply and demand require, but others thank them for providing a wonderful opportunity to make money by "flipping" ammo. That fact that someone CAN sell retail-purchased ammo again immediately for a higher price is DE FACTO proof that the market value is not close to the price WalMart is charging.

You may say that you understand your own point of view so well because you haven't bought any ammo since General Jackson made the Treaty of Ghent a rather moot point, but it doesn't help establish credibility in explaining how markets work.

jcwit
February 2, 2014, 08:21 PM
All these outlandish profits being made by those in the so called "free Market" being reported as income?

So Sam, in your mind the largest retail company in the world has no idea what the "market value" is and therefore they are in fact "full of it".

Plain and simple its nothing short of greed on the part of those who participate in scalping the supply.

General Jackson made the Treaty of Ghent a rather moot point,

What does that have to do with anything? So far back in history it for sure is a moot point!

Queen_of_Thunder
February 2, 2014, 08:31 PM
Once all Walmarts take that practice of putting stock out randomly, .22 ammo will drop in price dramatically. With scalpers having first dibs at 7 in the morning,
making ammo drops random removes their profit(time = money) and we all win. No reason to buy .22 at double and triple the norm when it's readily available at Walmart.

It's really amazing, and sad, the impact Walmart has over our lives.
Now let me get this straight. Keeping in mind that Walmart has a 3 box limit, you think that instead of selling to 4 guys/gals at 7am and instead sell it to 4 different guys/gals at 2pm is going to solve the shortage. Did you hit your head on something. What you and others need to understand is that noone is getting anywhere near what they got in 2012 before this mess started. Every shop owner and big box retailer manager has told me this.

Another thing. There are a whole lot of places that don't even have a Walmart or any of the big box retailers. They have to depend on a LGS if there is one and your LGS is right there with us when it comes to getting ammo. SO people have to turn to online sources to get their ammo and thats where those who buy and resell come in. A raw deal for sure but at least they have the opportunity to make the choice of buying it or not.

Another thing to consider. Another panic is not out of the question given the court case in Conn. and the midterm congressional elections this year. So the so called high prices could look dirt cheap in 6-9 months from here.

Queen_of_Thunder
February 2, 2014, 08:32 PM
All these outlandish profits being made by those in the so called "free Market" being reported as income?

So Sam, in your mind the largest retail company in the world has no idea what the "market value" is and therefore they are in fact "full of it".

Plain and simple its nothing short of greed on the part of those who participate in scalping the supply.
What supply.

holdencm9
February 2, 2014, 08:44 PM
Am I paying higher than what I would have paid 2 years ago? Yes. But I am not paying higher than market value.

Reloadron
February 2, 2014, 09:13 PM
I keep hearing about these 7 guys or whatever who are at the Walmart at 7 AM when the ammunition is placed on the shelves and they all buy their three box/brick/whatever limit and scalp the stuff.

A few weeks ago I went to the local Walmart with my wife. My main reason for going was to spare her humping the large bags of dog food. While there I figured what the heck and checked ammunition. Wow, midday and be still my little heart. There on the shelf was Blazer 22 LR so I bought my 3 boxes as long as I was there anyway. I didn't even bother to have the wife get three boxes.

I retired last year in May. I no longer have to get up and go to work. My local Walmart is maybe 7 to 10 min away. There is no way in hell I am getting up to go to the Walmart to try and score 22 LR ammo. The seven scalpers are welcome to it. My best suggestion is for those who have issues with these seven scalpers is to show up at Walmart at 6 AM and join them ahead of them in the line. I am sure you all don't work 7 days a week?

Every thread that starts involving ammunition evolves into the same seven guys at the Walmart buying all the 22 LR and scalping it. Like I said, if that worried about it drag your butts to Walmart at 6 AM. Don't look for me as I won't be there but feel free to stop over for coffee after your expedition.

Ron

Impureclient
February 2, 2014, 09:13 PM
Did you hit your head on something.
Almost slipped by, almost. Attacking me personally does not cancel out my opinion.

you think that instead of selling to 4 guys/gals at 7am and instead sell it to 4 different guys/gals at 2pm is going to solve the shortage. There is no shortage of anything. Just many people gobbling ammo up and sitting on it either til this all blows over(again) and the few snatching it up only to resell at scalping prices. If Walmart sets a one box limit and those boxes were spread onto 20-30 people instead of the 4 or 5 in the morning, yes it would alleviate much of this. First of all those 4 in the morning are all together sometimes which equals one shopper with family/friends getting their limits. So one or a few people have all that days supply which means they can demand from those possible 20-30 others who missed out whatever price they deem fit in online auctions or gunshows, hence over priced .22 ammo which we are all dealing with.

I just want a box or two to shoot that day and the early bird scalpers in Walmart make that impossible. I will not buy ammo at scalper prices so hopefully the "tax free illegal ammo entrepreneurs" have to eat that ammo when prices correct themselves.

jcwit
February 2, 2014, 09:25 PM
I will not buy ammo at scalper prices so hopefully the "tax free illegal ammo entrepreneurs" have to eat that ammo when prices correct themselves.


Excellent description IMO.

JDR
February 2, 2014, 10:24 PM
Again, depends what is meant by "market price". I don't reload so I've had to pay more than what I typically pay for ammo, when I've bought ammo at the indoor ranges I go to, on the rare occasions when I needed ammo. These LGRs are small businesses and can't sell their ammo for what my local Wally's sells it for, that's just the way it is.

Tirod
February 3, 2014, 09:41 AM
Have you bought ammo from a scalper? Do you know anyone who has?

Simple questions. Who's buying all the high priced ammo that is reputedly immoral or unethical? Cause, nobody is saying. Either nobody really is, or, it was market price to them and why talk about it?

Who buys the ammo on Gunbroker that you know is "too high?"

SOMEBODY IS, according to all the griping.

NOBODY, however, can name names or say "It's me."

I can only conclude the claims about "scalpers lined up at Walmart" are pure BS - making up somebody to blame because the whiner can't walk into the store at 4PM and expect to buy it off the shelf.

Despite the fact that plenty here say they are.

Since the majority of the complaints are coming from people who only buy a few boxes at a time, from sources who only stock a few boxes at a time, it seems pretty clear it's not the big consumers or scalpers who are depleting the few boxes. It's people within a ten mile radius of the outlet. Joe Citizen. Not flippers or scalpers or some black market entrepreneur. No different than trying to mule cold medicine to make meth, small time operators buy local, the Cartel gets it shipped in by the truck load. (They now control the market.)

If you are suffering a local ammo shortage, then it's being caused by you and your local neighbors and friends. Not some nameless faceless scalper.

Anybody actually run across these guys at work, or word of mouth? Ridiculous. I expect it's as common as someone lurking behind your place of work trying to sell pictures of your mom.

Do I have to put it in caps?

WHO IS BUYING AMMO FROM SCALPERS AT HIGH PRICES?

I seriously doubt it. Just a made up story to blame someone else for the frustration of not getting any when they bother to walk in. If you show up late to the party, don't expect that they will save the good booze just for you. Nope, it's served early when people can appreciate it. If you can't make the effort to be there when it is, you only have yourself to blame.

Not some mythical scalper.

Sam1911
February 3, 2014, 09:42 AM
All these outlandish profits being made by those in the so called "free Market" being reported as income?
Not on the point. An interesting question, but not directly related to what we're discussing. I mean, after all, we're all such big proponents of the current tax code that we're going to be the enthusiastic rah-rah team for the tax man? You'll never see a bunch of individualists screaming for tax law enforcement like you will when someone else stands to make a buck. :neener:

So Sam, in your mind the largest retail company in the world has no idea what the "market value" is and therefore they are in fact "full of it".Now let's be perfectly clear! I'M the only one that's "Full of It," thankyouverymuch!

But no, read what I wrote carefully. I said that WalMart DOES understand market value -- better than you or I.

But they don't just sell ammo. They sell 100,000 other products, and they have a market strategy that says they DON'T follow the market when one of their items goes through a market value swing. Their theory is that they want to be known for LOW prices. So they'll sell some things for much less than they could get for them -- i.e.: what the market is valuing them at. Even less than is profitable, occasionally. That gets butts in the store. They DON'T care that there aren't any of that item on the shelf today. People will still come look and while they're there they'll pick up some shampoo, a gallon of milk, a DVD and a t-shirt. The strategy is GOOD for WalMart, but not really good for "the market" as a whole. For one thing, it make all the other retailers (your beloved local gun shop, for example) look like cheats when they push their prices up to meet demand (and costs). For another, it simply FORCES the creation of a "flipper" class of folks who will trade their time standing in line at 6:00 am for making a clear $20-30 a brick on .22s. The product is selling at WalMart so far below what the collection of buyers is willing to pay for it, that someone is going to step in and act as a middleman to reap the harvest of that price discrepancy. It HAS to happen. Expecting it not to is like seeing a large gold brick to fall out of the sky and land in the middle of Main St. and believing that no one will stop to pick it up. It is there for the taking. We're living creatures, we collect resources to extend and better our lives, wherever we can find them. It's part of the definition of being alive.

Plain and simple its nothing short of greed on the part of those who participate in scalping the supply.Buying something for one price and selling it again at a much higher price will always be called greed by someone. Others will call it "making a living" or "wise investment" or some other term. If the point of the exercise is to turn a profit and therefore continue to meet life's expenses and maybe get ahead, then "greed" is absolutely fine, positive, and necessary.

General Jackson made the Treaty of Ghent a rather moot point,
What does that have to do with anything? So far back in history it for sure is a moot point!Exactly my point. The fact that you haven't bought ammo in decades doesn't make your opinion more valid. You aren't participating in the current market at all, but you're casting stones at a lot of folks who are. Bully for you.

jcwit
February 3, 2014, 09:51 AM
Exactly my point. The fact that you haven't bought ammo in decades doesn't make your opinion more valid. You aren't participating in the current market at all, but you're casting stones at a lot of folks who are. Bully for you.

And I'm doing it for the very reason that all this greed is hurting the shooting sports in general for all the new folks getting into this sport, no matter whether they are young or old or in between.

Not on the point. An interesting question, but not directly related to what we're discussing. I mean, after all, we're all such big proponents of the current tax code that we're going to be the enthusiastic rah-rah team for the tax man? You'll never see a bunch of individualists screaming for tax law enforcement like you will when someone else stands to make a buck.

So you support breaking or ignoring the law? Way to go, very HR.

You know Sam, its very possible you will never convince me, nor I you. But in the end I am entitled to my opinion, as are you. That is one of my entitlements, I think.

Queen_of_Thunder
February 3, 2014, 09:54 AM
There is a shortage. Just ask the LGS when the last time they got any 22lr ammo and when do they expect their next shipment. My local Academy finally got some 22lr in last Friday. It was the first 22lr they had received in a month. The local management can't get what they need for their store. They have told me they are only getting a fraction of what they received in 2012. Same from the LGS owners. There is a shortage due to demand. Accept it.

You cannot add millions of new shooters to the demand side and not cause a shortage in supply. The increase in demand caused by new shooters was basically an "overnight" event which put the manufactures behind with virtually no way to catch up. Those new shooters with children naturally introduced the sport to their children and 22lr is the most often route people take for introducing children and new shooters to the hobby. The shortage is REAL and exists.

powder
February 3, 2014, 09:58 AM
Nope, and my wife finally understands why we always left Wal-Mart with ammo. every time we were in there for something: it is a commodity the same as silver, gold, or what have you.

At the fun show last month I saw a guy selling TULA .223 at $20 for a box of 20. $35 AR-10 mags going for $85. If people are willing to pay it? Oh well..

It has been more interesting to see who your real friends are, who relate where/when the deals are, rather than tell me about them after they purchased-those are the good guys I call from Wal-Mart when I find the .22 bricks back in stock at $22. A pile of ammo is like a good pile of split wood-makes me all warm and fuzzy.

Sam1911
February 3, 2014, 10:19 AM
And I'm doing it for the very reason that all this greed is hurting the shooting sports in general for all the new folks getting into this sport, no matter whether they are young or old or in between.I see what you're saying there. I mean, wouldn't it be great if guns and ammo and places to shoot were free and totally open-access to anyone who wanted to participate?

But why should our hobby/interest/passion not be subject to the same market forces that everything else in this world is subject to?

It may not be "good" for the shooting sports that prices rise, but if WalMart (and others) followed market prices things would be BETTER, probably.

As an example: Price of a brick of ammo in 2012? Maybe $18. Let's say we get to the middle of 2013 and WalMart's financial wizards do market polling and find out that folks are paying anywhere from $25 to $65 a brick for that ammo out in the open market. So WalMart says sheesh, the average price right now is $45 a brick! Well, they don't have to even charge the average price. If they'd put it out on the shelves at $10 less, say $35 a brick, they would have still sold almost all they could get, but fewer people would see it as a "screaming deal" and break the piggy bank open to buy every brick they could get. Instead they say, "Dang, that's pretty expensive compared to last year. I need some ammo, but I'll just buy one brick and conserve it." There are lots of bricks left on the shelf.

The net result is that more people end up able to buy ammo because it isn't flying off the shelf immediately. Those who do, shoot conservatively, because it is more expensive than it was -- though still a lot cheaper than centerfire stuff. And people grumble a little that the price is "so high." But the "flippers" and "scalpers" stay at home on the couch because is ISN'T worth it to make just a few dollars a box, especially in a market that is softening because -- wow! -- there's usually ammo on the shelf (expensive, but it is there).

Now, forgetting scalpers and flippers for the moment, the benefit of slightly higher pricing to the average consumer base is that it suppresses the urge to impulse/splurge buy. If you walk in to the shop and see .22 lr at $40 a brick, you're not so willing to blow $120 to get your three box limit. Not every week or every month at least. Even if you're a lucky one who happens to show up just as they're stocking the shelf -- well...meh, I don't need it THAT much. So you walk away leaving 2 or 3 of "your" bricks on the shelf to be bought by the next guy. Then the next guy says, "hey, there was plenty of ammo on the shelf at WalMart yesterday..." and when he doesn't buy all of "his" stash at once, then two or three others say the same thing. And the panic evaporates.

Joe Newbie and his kids can then walk into WalMart and buy a .22 rifle and a brick of ammo whenever they want to. It's a little more expensive than in "the good old days" but everything is -- so what? No use getting folks into the sport expecting it to be CHEAP.

Not on the point. An interesting question, but not directly related to what we're discussing. I mean, after all, we're all such big proponents of the current tax code that we're going to be the enthusiastic rah-rah team for the tax man? You'll never see a bunch of individualists screaming for tax law enforcement like you will when someone else stands to make a buck.
So you support breaking or ignoring the law? Way to go, very HR.I'm not even going to answer one way or the other. It's off topic here and not on-point to the discussion. I'm just pointing out how ironic it is that we LOVE to enforce "the law" when someone else stands to get ahead. Right champions of justice we are -- when it isn't our butts, our money, our profit. ;)

You know Sam, its very possible you will never convince me, nor I you. But in the end I am entitled to my opinion, as are you. That is one of my entitlements, I think.
Oh certainly. Express your opinion! I'll continue to express mine. A nice point-counterpoint for the readers.

Sam1911
February 3, 2014, 10:24 AM
Additionally: I sometimes wonder if WalMart's "3-box" limit is really a maximum, or a minimum? :D

I know a lot of buyers would have spent thousands and bought the entire shipment before it was off the truck last year if they were allowed to, but I seriously believe that there's some slick psychology going on with a "3 box limit" imposed on the shopper.

Someone walks into the store and says, "Hmmm...I'll grab some ammo if they have any." They might pick up one or two...or five. Who knows? But if you tell them "there's a panic on! I can't sell you more than THREE BOXES!!!"

Guess how many boxes 99% of customers will walk out with?

I wonder if it is possible to do some kind of analysis and figure out if they sold more or less with a 3-box limit in place?

Queen_of_Thunder
February 3, 2014, 11:33 AM
Almost slipped by, almost. Attacking me personally does not cancel out my opinion.

There is no shortage of anything. Just many people gobbling ammo up and sitting on it either til this all blows over(again) and the few snatching it up only to resell at scalping prices. If Walmart sets a one box limit and those boxes were spread onto 20-30 people instead of the 4 or 5 in the morning, yes it would alleviate much of this. First of all those 4 in the morning are all together sometimes which equals one shopper with family/friends getting their limits. So one or a few people have all that days supply which means they can demand from those possible 20-30 others who missed out whatever price they deem fit in online auctions or gunshows, hence over priced .22 ammo which we are all dealing with.

I just want a box or two to shoot that day and the early bird scalpers in Walmart make that impossible. I will not buy ammo at scalper prices so hopefully the "tax free illegal ammo entrepreneurs" have to eat that ammo when prices correct themselves.
I didn't attack you personally. I attacked the supposition you put forth. You're position that changing the time ammo is put on the shelf for sale will correct the shortage is simply crazy. You ignore the basic fact that there is very little supply available for purchase. You missed that. You simply chose to ignore the increased number of new gun owners which is in the neighborhood of 20 million new gun owners. Plus those gun owners that expanded their own personal collection into new areas. That is the crux of the problem.

You have also assumed that those buying ammo in the morning will not change the time they show up to buy ammo. You assume they will not come in later when its put out on the shelf. You are wrong on that also.

You state that all you want to do is pick up a couple of boxes to shoot that day. That paradigm has been broken and a new one instituted. The ability to walk into a LGS or other retailer to pick up some ammo to shoot that day has been regulated to the annals of history. Those days are gone forever. You have to adapt to the changing situation if you wish to continue to shoot.

jerkface11
February 3, 2014, 11:35 AM
Can we get a ban on ammo shortage/ hoarding threads? Or maybe just have one that's sticky?

Queen_of_Thunder
February 3, 2014, 11:56 AM
Additionally: I sometimes wonder if WalMart's "3-box" limit is really a maximum, or a minimum? :D

I know a lot of buyers would have spent thousands and bought the entire shipment before it was off the truck last year if they were allowed to, but I seriously believe that there's some slick psychology going on with a "3 box limit" imposed on the shopper.

Someone walks into the store and says, "Hmmm...I'll grab some ammo if they have any." They might pick up one or two...or five. Who knows? But if you tell them "there's a panic on! I can't sell you more than THREE BOXES!!!"

Guess how many boxes 99% of customers will walk out with?

I wonder if it is possible to do some kind of analysis and figure out if they sold more or less with a 3-box limit in place?
Sam in my area the limits imposed by sellers are the maximum. The folks at Academy have informed me they could lose their job if they are caught putting ammo away for themselves after they get off work. In fact several of their managers have been in line on their day off to purchase ammo. That's just my area.

My local Walmarts have a 3 box limit and they enforce it. Academy has a 2 box limit per person per day on 22lr. On bulk 22lr which they qualify as anything holding 300 rounds or more the limit is 1 box per person per day.

The amount of ammo coming into my city is quite small. it's really striking that so little is coming in and I really don't see it changing much. We are one crazy action or one Supreme Court decision away from complete chaos. The recent court case in Conn. will encourage those who have been holding back on instituting new gun laws to go forward. It's frightening and people are responding in a very natural way by stocking up.

As far as to how much they are selling everything I've been told is they are selling less because they are getting less than they were in 2012. Lets face the facts that when there is only enough ammo in a delivery to sell to 4 people you have a problem even with limits. I know because a week ago this past Sunday I was the fifth person in line and the ammo purchases went like this. Person 1 got 3 boxes as did person 2 and 3. Person 4 got one box and person 5 which happened to be me got nothing. There is no supply and what there is is only a fraction of past normal levels.

SFreed
February 3, 2014, 12:38 PM
Not to change the topic, but Cabelas has Winchester 22 $7.99 per 100. Not bad if you live close enough for the ship to store option.

SFreed
February 3, 2014, 12:52 PM
And I think the point Sam was making with the limits was how many buyers are buying the limit BECAUSE there is a limit. How many didn't need 3 boxes, but that's how many they're going to buy.
Feel free to correct if I'm wrong, Sam.

Sam1911
February 3, 2014, 01:04 PM
Nope, you got it. Tell someone, "here's some ammo, how much do you want?," and they'll probably buy however much they actually want or need or can afford. That might be five or ten boxes, or a truck-load. But for the huge majority of shooters, that's probably a box or maybe two.

Tell them, "I can ONLY SELL YOU THREE BOXES!," and just about everyone will feel a compulsion to buy the full three. It's just the nature of folks, buying and selling. If they have to stop and think about what they NEED, they'll probably do a bit of math, think about the grocery budget this week, and buy what they need. Give them a hard limit with an easy number like "3" and THREE it is***! Especially if you can freight that llimit with a bit of "bannic-hoarding" emotion to get the fear churning a little. Get while the getting's good! It will only cost more tomorrow!! They aren't making any more!!! You'll be caught DEFENSELESS!!!!

"Uh...Three please." ;)


I take what QOT is saying is that in her area, the demand so far exceeded the supply that the three box limit would have been over-run in every possible case.


(*** -- "Three shall be the number thou shalt count (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOrgLj9lOwk), and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, neither count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out.")

jimmyraythomason
February 3, 2014, 01:04 PM
I fail to see how buying ammo to shoot up or to squirrel away for a "rainy day" is morally superior in any way to buying it and putting it back into the market. Seems to me that a box of long rifle ammo available for $3.00 is better than the same box for $1.50 that you never can find(just arbitrary numbers, I have no idea what it goes for).

SFreed
February 3, 2014, 01:13 PM
I think I can sum it up. There are 4 groups in this; Those who bought a bunch previously, Those who buy what they can find and pay whatever the asking price is, Those who have none and refuse to buy any at any price and those who buy whatever they can find and sell it to the 2nd group. Each group has a beef with someone In one of the other groups, and everyone reads about it here. Sort of a Gullivers Travels, big end-ian little end-ian sort of thing. Now my thumbs are cramped and my lunch is over.....

SFreed
February 3, 2014, 01:15 PM
Ooops.....Forgot the group that says there is a conspiracy and no one is making 22 ammo.

Agsalaska
February 3, 2014, 02:51 PM
Tirod: From OP

I have a theory it's basically fear. People are afraid of the potential direction of life in America and are reacting to that vision. They find it unacceptable. Hey, I agree - this isn't the America I planned to grow old in. Far from it, although things like Star Trek communicators and heated car seats are nice. But they aren't much in the way of building a safe and secure feeling about life.



True. But in the end it is just supply and demand. There is an increase in demand for many reasons and the market has had trouble, for many more reason, stabilizing. Prices should have increased but the variances are too large to be considered healthy.



That all being said, I have bought a lot. I have bought most of it from the underpriced shelves at Academy, Bass Pro, and Cabelas. I have the luxery of being able to be there at the right times. Before the craze began I was a pay as you go shooter. I am really not much of a shooter in all honesty. So on the rare day I was going to the range I would just go buy ammo on the way. It was nothing for me to have whatever was leftover from whtever deer cartridge I used the season before, a couple of random shotgun shells, and a couple of loaded magazines for a Glock. Never again I vowed to myself. I have probably bought 4-5000 rounds of centerfire and another 2500 rimfire in the last year and have shot almost none of it. I did, early on, play the inlfated prices because I had absolutely nothing. But once I got a few boxes I became much more careful about price. And, until Academy and Bass Pro fix their prices, I will continue to buy as much as I can.

Which leads me to my last point. The reason I continue to buy is because the big box retailers have it grossly underpriced. I would do the same thing if it were cars or lamshades or a common stock or anything else. As long as they are selling it far below market price I will continue to buy it.

Sam1911
February 3, 2014, 02:54 PM
Now, THAT is an interesting post.

Care to share what your trigger price points are, what you think the true market price IS now, where you think it is going in the future (and why), and/or what you plan to do with all that ammo?

Potatohead
February 3, 2014, 03:00 PM
Interesting indeed.

To the OP,
I havent really bought anything over market (i guess that depends who you ask about the market though because Im sure someone is about to tell me how ridiculously priced the following ammo I bought was) , I guess in mid panic i was paying 19.50 for 50ct PPU/GFL JHPs and FMJs. Now I wont really buy those for over 15$, when I do buy at all, because now Im reloading... I dont really know what everyone considers market though.

powder
February 3, 2014, 03:11 PM
Alright, I admit it, I'm one of the 7 guys who goes to their local 3 Wal-Marts and buys up my 3 boxes at each store. I have a great paying Union job, which gives me a great pay and benefits, and I'm making a killing on the side with ammunition sales as my side job.

I'm an entrepreneur, taking advantage of the free-market system, and having fun doing it. I've got .22 bricks of Rem. for $55, and can't keep them "in stock", though I'm doubling my money. If it was real estate, would you boycott me there too? :banghead:

SFreed
February 3, 2014, 05:01 PM
(*** -- "Three shall be the number thou shalt count (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOrgLj9lOwk), and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, neither count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out.")[/QUOTE]

This made reading every post on every 22 ammo thread worthwhile. I make a Gulliver's Travels reference, and you trump me with a Monty Python. Sam1911, you are my new hero.

jcwit
February 3, 2014, 05:42 PM
It may not be "good" for the shooting sports that prices rise, but if WalMart (and others) followed market prices things would be BETTER, probably.

Maybe, no one knows, unless you have psychic abilities.

But actually Wal-Mart does in fact follow market prices, those in the underground market, black market, secondary market, sell at highly inflated prices to the idiots who support them.

Sam, how many years of retail experience do you have? And is it with your own company?

Agsalaska
February 3, 2014, 05:46 PM
Now, THAT is an interesting post.

Care to share what your trigger price points are, what you think the true market price IS now, where you think it is going in the future (and why), and/or what you plan to do with all that ammo?
Absolutely. I will try to be as to the point as possible.

The fundamental issue with the current market for ammo is large variations between high price and low price for like items. The low prices in the bulk retailers are not allowing inventory to stay on the shelves. Because of the scarcity created the goods are turned again by non traditional retailers at a very large mark up. This creates a gap where normal markets will try to normalize. That average sales price is where the market is trying to get. But it will never get there as long as half of the supply is underpriced. If they would find the average sales price inventory would stay on the shelves and prices would ultimately fall.

So, to answer your question, any time I see ammo on the very low side of what would be the average sales price I will buy it. I believe there will be a point where the big box retailers will have to give in or this situation will last for a long time. My guess is the true market price for 22lr is probably double what it was in 2012. A 500 round box of Remington target stuff should be in the $40 range. Common pistol ammo is probably up 30% or so and SD stuff 50% with different variations among the different calibers(most notably 9mm).

I think it is going to persist for a long time for a couple of reasons. I think the big box tested the waters with the quota system and found that they liked what they saw better than the backlash CTD and others received. I think the floodgates that have brought in hundreds of thousands of new shooters will continue thus driving up demand. I do not think a real effort to increase production will come(mostly political). And I think there will be another incident, whether a tragedy or a politician spewing their mouths that will cause another scare. I do think , however, that they will eventually cave in and raise their prices at some point. But whether or not it is in 2014 or 2017 is anyone's guess.

As for what I plan on doing with 5000 rounds of cennterfire and 2500 of rimfire? Well, according to a lot on here that aint nothing. But I learned my lesson and will not take the current political climate and the fragile nature of our second amendment rights for granted again. I will probably continue to buy ammo for the foreseeable future.

jrdolall
February 3, 2014, 05:53 PM
I just picked up 1,500 more rounds of 22LR from Cabela's that, including shipping, is $.056 delivered to my door. That's 3k rounds in the past two weeks.

jrdolall
February 3, 2014, 05:56 PM
(*** -- "Three shall be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, neither count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out.")

How many boxes of ammo can a swallow carry?

Sam1911
February 3, 2014, 07:00 PM
African or European?

Actually, Agskalaska, I think you and jcwit need to chat because something between the two of you doesn't jibe. :)

When you say...
The low prices in the bulk retailers are not allowing inventory to stay on the shelves. Because of the scarcity created the goods are turned again by non traditional retailers at a very large mark up. This creates a gap where normal markets will try to normalize. That average sales price is where the market is trying to get. But it will never get there as long as half of the supply is underpriced. If they would find the average sales price inventory would stay on the shelves and prices would ultimately fall.
... you very succinctly summed up what I've been rambling about for a while now.

jcwhit: I don't mean to get into personal details -- what I'm saying is either well-founded or it isn't, where I come from and how I developed my ideas shouldn't matter. But I will say that I've been working on pricing of goods and services sold for about 15 years I guess, and am now the party primarily responsible for setting our pricing, though I do not own the firm I work for.

Agsalaska
February 3, 2014, 10:09 PM
Maybe, no one knows, unless you have psychic abilities.

But actually Wal-Mart does in fact follow market prices, those in the underground market, black market, secondary market, sell at highly inflated prices to the idiots who support them.

Sam, how many years of retail experience do you have? And is it with your own company?
I am sorry JCwit, but those two sentences do not jive. If the retailers(Wal Mart in this case) are selling at market prices then black markets or underground markets will not exist in anything other than isolated extraordinary circumstances(which certainly do not apply here.) One rule about pricing is if you consistently sell out of merchandise before your next shipment you are underpricing said item. The same can be said about manufacturing. Because Wal Mart cannot keep, say 22lr for example, in inventory over any length of time means they are underpriced.

And I know you asked Sam, not me, about work experience and I like how he answered it. I come to THR because I know that the majority of the posters on here are far more knowledgeable in firearms than I am. I am learning more all the time and really enjoy my collection. I probably get more out of THR than any other website. But I, like Sam, have spent my entire career in retail and have at various times and at various levels been involved in and/or in charge of pricing, pricing controls, min-max programs, etc. for both publicly traded and privately held multi unit companies. The forces at play are not foreign to me in any way.

Agsalaska
February 3, 2014, 10:35 PM
And Queen of Thunder, I still disagree with you about their being a supply shortage(in the context of your argument). I understand your point and am witnessing the same thing here. But I think what you are seeing is actually an overstressed supply line that cannot keep up with demand. It spreads the supply too thin and distorts perception. But in the end my guess is american ammo manufacturers put out more product in 2013 than they ever have.

Warp
February 3, 2014, 10:38 PM
Sam, I have yet to find a single person on any forum or board or other internet based conduit of opinion/information I agree with more, and more frequently, than yourself.

It's kinda freaky.

Consider this a quote/+1 to all of your posts.

There were just too many, with too many good points, so I scrapped the idea of quoting and replying to all of your points...it was just too damn long.

larryh1108
February 3, 2014, 10:40 PM
I never thought I'd be saying this but the pricing issue starts at the manufacturing level. The retails that the big box stores charge, the cost has not risen much beyond the cost increases in making the ammo. If CCI (for e.g.) is selling every round of ammo they make, running 24/7, then they are the ones who should raise the prices to match the demand. If Wal Box Store sold bricks of .22LR for $34.95, I doubt there would be much griping. To sell at that retail, their cost would have to rise. If that was the "new" established retail then the scalpers would have a hard time making money, the guys who buy the max restrictions may back off because of the cost and the supply/demand curve would level out. I have no idea why the makers of the ammo aren't the ones lining their pockets while they can. Instead, they are allowing the middle men to rape the public. It makes no sense.

jcwit
February 3, 2014, 10:41 PM
Ok Sam, I'm the dumbest, stupidest, most ignorant sob that ever walked the face of the earth, and its undoubtedly that economics have been reinvented by you.

This after a successful career of a lifetime in the retail industry, the last of it owning and running my own business & being able to retire at the age of 58, totally owning my own home, no car payments nor any other bank payments. Even tho I'm dumb, stupid, and ignorant, I live a very comfortable life style with more than enough ammo, powder, primers, lead, and cases for a lifetime of shooting to support my collection of close to 200 firearms.

Yup, even the dumb, stupid, ignorant pig finds the acorn every once in a while.

With this we're all happy! Except for those who are unable to find ammo and/or are unable to afford it at the current so called "market value". After all they are not "entitled" to it, at least not at the current scalpers prices.

Duckdog
February 3, 2014, 10:42 PM
If the limited supply is spread out as even the retailers are starting to do, the demand will go down because it becomes a dead horse for a profiteer to risk gas money going to any store where they could get a sure purchase in the past. The supply will catch up when this happens.

It allows the average Joe to get a few rounds to appease their appetite, even if they do not shoot all of them. Now, make that same few round unattainable and some of the average Joes' will buy some just because they can't get them. They'll pay alomost anything to get them. Profiteers know this. It's like fasting for a blood test. Whether or not you eat breakfast normally, you sure as hell want it when you are told you can't have it. In all of these threads, it is becoming obvious who the profiteers are.

jcwit
February 3, 2014, 10:43 PM
Odd isn't it that the high quality match ammo has not risen even close % wise as to what the common plinking ammo has gone up with the scalper pricing.

Warp
February 3, 2014, 10:44 PM
Except for those who are unable to find ammo and/or are unable to afford it at the current so called "market value".

There is no such thing as "so called".

That IS the market value.

This is a big market. It is not cornered and controlled.

Ammo is selling for what buyers are willing to pay for it.

Supply and demand.

Agsalaska
February 3, 2014, 10:49 PM
Odd isn't it that the high quality match ammo has not risen even close % wise as to what the common plinking ammo has gone up with the scalper pricing.
Actually this is not odd at all. In fact this is a fairly common and well understood economic phenomenon. Generally speaking the total increases are felt at lower price levels first and the more expensive like items have more trouble holding value. I would expect plinking ammo to be more expensive relative to earlier pricing than target ammo in 22.

Agsalaska
February 3, 2014, 10:55 PM
I never thought I'd be saying this but the pricing issue starts at the manufacturing level. The retails that the big box stores charge, the cost has not risen much beyond the cost increases in making the ammo. If CCI (for e.g.) is selling every round of ammo they make, running 24/7, then they are the ones who should raise the prices to match the demand. If Wal Box Store sold bricks of .22LR for $34.95, I doubt there would be much griping. To sell at that retail, their cost would have to rise. If that was the "new" established retail then the scalpers would have a hard time making money, the guys who buy the max restrictions may back off because of the cost and the supply/demand curve would level out. I have no idea why the makers of the ammo aren't the ones lining their pockets while they can. Instead, they are allowing the middle men to rape the public. It makes no sense.
Very good question and one that I do not understand either. While manufacturing is often the last one to react to market forces there has been plenty of time now. I meant to reference something similar in my earlier post about manufacturing helping to normalize pricing. But you put it very well.

Duckdog
February 3, 2014, 10:57 PM
I hope some of you folks are heating with propane and don't whine your tank runs out and it's upward of $7.50 a gallon, where it was $1.40 a gallon just months ago. In fact, it's what the market value is. I'm sure you'd smile when your 500 gallon tank get filled to 80% and costs $3,000.00. But, you'd have a choice, right? It's just demand... right? In my area, they are limiting fills to 100 gallons, but why should they? They should just sell it to a few who maybe install tandem 1000 gallon tanks and the rest can, well, pay whatever to get what they want. I doubt anyone here would like to be taken advantage because of the "market price".

Agsalaska
February 3, 2014, 11:02 PM
Ok Sam, I'm the dumbest, stupidest, most ignorant sob that ever walked the face of the earth, and its undoubtedly that economics have been reinvented by you.

This after a successful career of a lifetime in the retail industry, the last of it owning and running my own business & being able to retire at the age of 58, totally owning my own home, no car payments nor any other bank payments. Even tho I'm dumb, stupid, and ignorant, I live a very comfortable life style with more than enough ammo, powder, primers, lead, and cases for a lifetime of shooting to support my collection of close to 200 firearms.

Yup, even the dumb, stupid, ignorant pig finds the acorn every once in a while.

With this we're all happy! Except for those who are unable to find ammo and/or are unable to afford it at the current so called "market value". After all they are not "entitled" to it, at least not at the current scalpers prices.
JCwit,

Congratulations on such a great life. I can only hope to be in that position when I am your age.

I have studied plenty of businesses that did not know how they made money. But they did. And lots of it. They did because they were very good at other aspects of what makes a business successful. Nothing in retail is more important than personal relationships and customer service. I would also argue that location and timing are very important factors. I have seen very smart people who understood the economics behind their business better than anyone fail because they did not know how to run a business. I am sure you did many things well to put yourself in the position that you are in today.

Just to be clear, I have not read anything about 'reinventing' economics.

jcwit
February 3, 2014, 11:06 PM
There is no such thing as "so called".

That IS the market value.

This is a big market. It is not cornered and controlled.

Ammo is selling for what buyers are willing to pay for it.

Supply and demand.


Yup, that's why its still setting on the tables at the gun shows at the end of the show just as it was at the start of the show. Yup, that the "New Market Value".

Agsalaska
February 3, 2014, 11:07 PM
Yup, that's why its still setting on the tables at the gun shows at the end of the show just as it was at the start of the show. Yup, that the "New Market Value".
No. You awe not following. That is NOT the market value. That is the high dollar sales price. The market value is below that. Far below that.

Gun Master
February 3, 2014, 11:43 PM
No !

mbt2001
February 4, 2014, 12:20 AM
+100 to everyone that understands supply and demand and the underlying tenants of capitalism.

Boo to the all the haters that are most likely the ones buying up all the ammo anyway... And because their feelings/ideas lead us ultimately to a nanny state.

Queen_of_Thunder
February 4, 2014, 12:34 AM
And Queen of Thunder, I still disagree with you about their being a supply shortage(in the context of your argument). I understand your point and am witnessing the same thing here. But I think what you are seeing is actually an overstressed supply line that cannot keep up with demand. It spreads the supply too thin and distorts perception. But in the end my guess is american ammo manufacturers put out more product in 2013 than they ever have.
And that is what they call a shortage.

sixgunner455
February 4, 2014, 01:09 AM
I've purchased some match .22 at higher prices than I am used to paying for bulk - but that's to be expected. I've only bought a bit of bulk .22 in the past year, and while it was more expensive than before, it was really not very much for a brick.

Other ammo is more expensive than it used to be, but I mostly reload center fires now, so I only buy factory ammo for my guns when it is a price that I like. Of course, when I borrowed a gun in a caliber I don't own, I had to pay what the only store in town that had any was asking for that caliber, and it was a bit of a choke to pay it. Only did that once, though.

coloradokevin
February 4, 2014, 01:21 AM
In a long term drought like this one it sometimes gets tough to figure out what the "market" price for this stuff really is. I haven't paid ridiculous prices for anything, and I'm not yet willing to, but I've certainly bought some components at slightly higher prices than I would normally pay during times of plentiful components (in other words I've paid between $25-29/lb for smokeless powders, whereas I normally buy from places that sell the stuff for $19-24/lb — but, those cheap places haven't had my powder in stock in a long time, and some of the places I'm currently buying from are still selling at *their* normal prices. Still, I'm not about to pay $50/lb, or some other gouger price for the stuff).

Do I have a reasonable stock of ammo (for the most part)? Yeah, I'm doing okay except for reloading components for my new gun, which arrived after the drought started. Do I wish I'd bought more stuff earlier, knowing what I know now? Yep, I sure do! Has this shortage caused me to cut back on my shooting a bit? Yeah, it has. But, by that same logic I wish I'd gone all-in financially on Apple stock when it was selling for $6/share… then I wouldn't be worried about component prices!

Unfortunately that's the reality in this world: past market performance isn't a great predictor of future market performance, and sometimes boom/bust cycles hit at inopportune times. Almost everyone on this very large forum probably wishes they had more ammo/components/guns, but most of us have other financial obligations or responsibilities to consider as well. I had that particular discussion with a very close and well-stocked friend of mine one time (and this friend is in the same middle-class income bracket as I am). He's got more ammo on hand than anyone I know, and he's got a loan on everything else he "owns". I live a debt-free life, and have planned much more carefully for retirement, which is still a long ways off. A few years ago while I was working hard to get to my current financial position he was chiding me for not having enough components on hand to last me a lifetime (whereas he probably has enough stuff to last three lifetimes). I'm obviously doing worse than he is in an ammunition shortage, but I'll be in a MUCH better position than he is if we ever experience a work/income shortage… I guess I'll just keep calling/visiting stores in the mean time, in hopes of finding what I need to keep shooting!

Sam1911
February 4, 2014, 08:08 AM
jcwit: I don't think you're dumb, ignorant, stupid or any of those things you said. I think you're a fine gentleman of obvious talents and I'm proud to know you.

I don't agree with how you define the term "market price" and I think I disagree with how you perceive the free market to really work. But I also suspect that maybe there are subtle differences in definitions of terms, and other little communications frictions, that mean we just aren't understanding each other. (Though I'll admit that we could be communicating perfectly well, and just have opposing opinions.)

At any rate, that last post of yours is an embarrassing bit of debating -- throwing in simultaneous appeal to authority (regarding your fine career) and emotional pathos appeal (oooh, poor me!) and I don't accept it.

jrdolall
February 4, 2014, 08:33 AM
African or European?
Come on Sam! You know that's a silly question. African swallows are not migratory. Is there an ammo shortage in Africa?
I think we are in one of the most complicated markets I have ever seen and I spent my entire business life dealing with "market driven" commodities. The products I deal/dealt with(mostly fresh produce)could triple in price overnight due to weather conditions in one area of the world so all of our contracts included "Act of God" clauses to protect the parties involved.

I personally think that the amount of ammo being manufactured, specifically 22LR, is AT LEAST as high as in years past. The insane and now approaching "long term" demand for this product is causing the "shortage" and it doesn't appear that it will ease off any time soon. There is no way, other than large price increases at the retail level, that suppliers can meet current demand. Unless manufacturers raise their prices then Walmart isn't going to raise theirs to meet market price because they don't work that way. They are comfortable with their margin and aren't going to raise their prices because then Bass Pro might undercut them.

In every situation I have ever seen since the 70s the market has eventually worked itself out. Beef, chicken, lettuce, Wii Consoles, Air Nikes, etc have all eventually caught up with demand and the price eventually settles where the "market" is. Usually these prices drop considerably after a period of shortage whether it is caused by high demand or limited supplies.
We don't know what's going to happen. I would love to see some actual figures from a major retailer showing their ammo sales annually. Talking to "the guy at Walmart" who says they aren't getting in as much as they did in 2010 doesn't really do much for me because he has no reason to remember how much 22LR they used to get in on a weekly basis. Maybe it's the same or maybe it's more. The manufacturers SAY that they are still producing at maximum capacity so I'll take them at their word on that.

jcwit
February 4, 2014, 10:20 AM
emotional pathos appeal (oooh, poor me!) and I don't accept it.

Believe me there is no (oooh, poor me) intended, but you make take it in any way you wish. I think paragraph 2 more than negates that assumption.

huntsman
February 4, 2014, 02:45 PM
Beef, chicken, lettuce, Wii Consoles, Air Nikes, etc have all eventually caught up with demand and the price eventually settles where the "market" is. Usually these prices drop considerably after a period of shortage whether it is caused by high demand or limited supplies.

shortages on food stuffs is the real deal, fad clothing and toys is just demand driven by idiots, .22lr The greater fool theory high prices and or shortages on centerfire, I'm not sure it'll be self correcting unless something drastic happens economically.

9mmfan
February 4, 2014, 03:12 PM
haven't bought ammo lately, as I haven't done much shooting in the last year. I did pay more than I probably should have for a pound of Unique yesterday. I was just so pleased to find some.

jrdolall
February 4, 2014, 03:42 PM
demand driven by idiots,

Agree.

Mike1234567
February 4, 2014, 03:54 PM
Anyone want to bid on my 14K rds of .22LR?:) I dunno... might be closer to 16K rds... or 18K. I can't remember and haven't counted.

Warp
February 4, 2014, 06:06 PM
It's amazing how many people just call names over this.

Did I say amazing?

I meant disappointing.

And it's pretty much just the one group throwing the personal insults and calling the names...

Duckdog
February 4, 2014, 06:07 PM
How about .04 per round? If you indeed money due to financial difficulties, that may be a godsend to help any burdens you may have. Otherwise it's starting to smack of trying to be a vendor on here. Isn't there some rules and a fee for that?:D

jcwit
February 4, 2014, 06:20 PM
It's amazing how many people just call names over this.

Did I say amazing?

I meant disappointing.

And it's pretty much just the one group throwing the personal insults and calling the names...


I very seldom call or use names to describe others, but there times that when the shoe fits!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Queen_of_Thunder
February 4, 2014, 07:03 PM
Quote:
demand driven by idiots,


Agree.
Quote:


So that is what you think of all of the new shooters who have joined the hobby since Dec 2012.



Now back on topic. The OP wanted to know if we are paying higher than market prices for ammo but the question can't be answered as there is no such thing as a market price. Why. Prices are differ from region to region. We really have no idea what the "market price" is on anything. We can ascertain an average price of an item by doing surveys but at best its an average price. All markets are regional or local.

The market in my city is quite different from those in such locales as where Mike1234567 lives. The market price for 22lr in his area is different from where I live. Granted internet shopping helps to alleviate much of the discrepancy but shipping costs will also keep prices high in areas off the major routes of a UPS or FEDEX.

AS to the cost of ammo we need to recognize that there is a new paradigm that has come into being since Dec 2012. Its called 100+ million gun owners. Its a new world out there and the price of ammo will not retreat in any measurable way. If you expect to be shooting years from now then you better be stocking up on all of your shooting needs today as future prices will be higher and those prices will drive some from the hobby.

jcwit
February 4, 2014, 07:19 PM
AS to the cost of ammo we need to recognize that there is a new paradigm that has come into being since Dec 2012. Its called 100+ million gun owners. Its a new world out there and the price of ammo will not retreat in any measurable way.

Many of these 100 million are not new gun owners but are folks who just added an arm or 2 to their collection. In my experience here in No. Indiana, there has been a few more joining clubs for access to the ranges but it is far from a large amount of people. Any where from 2 to 5 a month, these are ranges that I am active in as being an Officer or on the BOD. We do support the largest group of 4-H kids, in our county here in Indiana, 800 kids this year.

Mike1234567
February 4, 2014, 07:20 PM
How about .04 per round? If you indeed money due to financial difficulties, that may be a godsend to help any burdens you may have. Otherwise it's starting to smack of trying to be a vendor on here. Isn't there some rules and a fee for that?:D
I don't recall ever trying to sell a single thing on this or any other gun forum. I'm not a vendor. I just thought way ahead and invested. And now I'm just sick of the whole .22 LR shortages and am extremely tempted to opt out altogether. I'm sorry to disappoint but I'll not be selling any .22 LR for 4 cents/rd. Besides... I can ask a whole lot more on GB than I'm likely to get here anyway.;)

Duckdog
February 4, 2014, 07:23 PM
It seems kind of funny how on a thread, not a few days ago, I posted that there were more shooters and that the manufacturers should jump on it by bumping up production, allowing the same profit margin while retaining the new customers and I was pretty much called out for being wrong, because this is just a market bubble, and now, some of those same folks are saying these prices are here to stay because of all of the increased demand by all of the new shooters, Which is it?

The retailers selling the product are not setting the market. The middle man is. Plain and simple. It's too darn easy for profiteers to sell on the internet now, where in the last panic, it was not so easy, thus there was much less profiteering. The retailers had better stocked shelves, meaning the prices stayed relatively level. This time it's a new game.

jcwit's posts are spot on in my honest opinion. Keep buying... you'll eventually get stuck with your prize. The manufacturers will cash in and up production... mark my words. They are much better at this than us and they undoubtedly will want to cash in on the new shooting customers. Even regulated businesses, which these are not, would make every attempt to get market share when these is a demand like this. Sometimes our worst enemy is ourselves and our greed.

Gun Master
February 4, 2014, 07:32 PM
It seems kind of funny how on a thread, not a few days ago, I posted that there were more shooters and that the manufacturers should jump on it by bumping up production, allowing the same profit margin while retaining the new customers and I was pretty much called out for being wrong, because this is just a market bubble, and now, some of those same folks are saying these prices are here to stay because of all of the increased demand by all of the new shooters, Which is it?

The retailers selling the product are not setting the market. The middle man is. Plain and simple. It's too darn easy for profiteers to sell on the internet now, where in the last panic, it was not so easy, thus there was much less profiteering. The retailers had better stocked shelves, meaning the prices stayed relatively level. This time it's a new game.

jcwit's posts are spot on in my honest opinion. Keep buying... you'll eventually get stuck with your prize. The manufacturers will cash in and up production... mark my words. They are much better at this than us and they undoubtedly will want to cash in on the new shooting customers. Even regulated businesses, which these are not, would make every attempt to get market share when these is a demand like this. Sometimes our worst enemy is ourselves and our greed.
Quote : " We have met the enemy......, and he is us ! " - Pogo :eek:

Duckdog
February 4, 2014, 07:37 PM
Now Mike, you've been trying to peddle that stash of 22 ammo for a while here. On 1-26 under "Here's the 22LR.." thread you put it up for sale. If I remember right, that was kind of what got some of this going was when a few folks started showing there stashes and defending profiteering.

Here's part of one of your posts.

"No, QoT, you can still buy it for 15 cents/rd if you buy it all and pay actual shipping. Price is good for another 48 hours. I'm a man of my word... but this time I set a time limit.

So if I sell it for 20 cents/rd on GB I don't want to hear any complaining. I didn't and am not buying during the shortage to scalp/gouge. I bought mine years ago when the getting was good. Now that I'm sick of the shortage I'm going to dump it all and get completely out of .22 LR until prices return to sanity. If I can get 17 cents per round or more then I'll take it. Again, I'm not one of those scalpers... bought mine years ago. If anyone has an issue with what I can sell it for today... it's just sour grapes."

Right on Gun Master. The antis don't need our guns... we're starving ourselves of ammo by greed. Maybe this is what they wanted all along.

jcwit
February 4, 2014, 07:39 PM
Quote:
demand driven by idiots,



Quote:
Originally Posted by jrdolall View Post
Agree.

Quote:


So that is what you think of all of the new shooters who have joined the hobby since Dec 2012.



I don't think I'd go so far as calling new shooters idiots, but you know for the average person buying a gas guzzler during a fuel shortage is definitely not the sharpest tack in the box.

larryh1108
February 4, 2014, 07:48 PM
...the average person buying a gas guzzler during a fuel shortage is definitely not the sharpest tack in the box.

Well, we can agree to disagree on this statement. We've been thru many gas crunches and when gas is at an all time high (again), the gaz guzzlers sit and the prices get chopped to move them. Now, if you've been thru this before and always wanted that fancy gas eater then you are actually smarter for buying it during a gas crunch than when there is plenty of gas and demand.

I believe that if this .22LR shortage continues until next year, you'll see a large quantity of .22LR guns on the market for cheap prices. That will be the time to buy if you are looking for these types of guns. Buy them to use or buy them to speculate but the prices will be right.

jrdolall
February 4, 2014, 07:48 PM
So that is what you think of all of the new shooters who have joined the hobby since Dec 2012.
Actually I didn't say that. That was directed at people that bought Wii consoles for $500 or paid $200 for a pair of basketball shoes.
I think anyone that buys anything at an absurd price unless that item is an absolute necessity of life is kind of leaning in that direction. Unless of course said person isn't worried about money. People who buy a Mazerati and pay cash aren't idiots. People who paid $1500 for a DPMS AR-15 last January or who pay $89 for a brick of Remington 22......

jcwit
February 4, 2014, 07:56 PM
Well, we can agree to disagree on this statement. We've been thru many gas crunches and when gas is at an all time high (again), the gaz guzzlers sit and the prices get chopped to move them. Now, if you've been thru this before and always wanted that fancy gas eater then you are actually smarter for buying it during a gas crunch than when there is plenty of gas and demand.


Well in my mind I never had the inclination to buy the gas guzzler and make the Arabs more money. Money in the bank was definitely a bonus, and no monthly payments are a big advantage, but I realize most of the American people do not see it this way.

Mike1234567
February 4, 2014, 08:17 PM
Now Mike, you've been trying to peddle that stash of 22 ammo for a while here. On 1-26 under "Here's the 22LR.." thread you put it up for sale. If I remember right, that was kind of what got some of this going was when a few folks started showing there stashes and defending profiteering.

Here's part of one of your posts.

"No, QoT, you can still buy it for 15 cents/rd if you buy it all and pay actual shipping. Price is good for another 48 hours. I'm a man of my word... but this time I set a time limit.

So if I sell it for 20 cents/rd on GB I don't want to hear any complaining. I didn't and am not buying during the shortage to scalp/gouge. I bought mine years ago when the getting was good. Now that I'm sick of the shortage I'm going to dump it all and get completely out of .22 LR until prices return to sanity. If I can get 17 cents per round or more then I'll take it. Again, I'm not one of those scalpers... bought mine years ago. If anyone has an issue with what I can sell it for today... it's just sour grapes."

Right on Gun Master. The antis don't need our guns... we're starving ourselves of ammo by greed. Maybe this is what they wanted all along.
My last post in this thread on this particular subject (selling my ammo).

Now, Duckdog: Why would I sell my ammo for less than I can buy it for? You're not going to buy any .22 LR for 4 cents/rd anywhere... maybe never again. It seems to me, if you really think I'm in a financial hurt, that you're trying to take advantage of my personal misfortune. IMHO, that's far colder than scalping.;)

I retract my offer to sell any ammo on THR. It's all going on GB.:)

Sam1911
February 4, 2014, 08:23 PM
Keep buying... you'll eventually get stuck with your prize.
Well...sure. Or actually, they'll shoot up that prize and then buy more at a cheaper price and... well, what? They'll have paid too much for some ammo once. Or they keep it stockpiled. Again, so what? They paid "too much" for it, but there it sits, as good as it ever was for decades, at least. I think most people buying .22 right now are grumbling about the price (or cheering that WalMart had it in stock) but it doesn't really hurt them in any way. Shoot it, keep it, whatever.

Heck, a few years ago I paid WAY too much for gas for a while. And I was driving a huge gas-guzzling work truck at the time. And today ... so what? Do I feel "stuck with my prize?" Nah. It happened and life went on.

Will there be some folks who get STUCK with ammo they intended to "flip" and now can't make a lot of money on? Heck, probably. That's finance for you. Every investment is a risk. But the thing is, if they bought it for $20 a brick, they'll sell some of it for $50 a brick. They'll sell a lot of it for $40 a brick. Then as things loosen up they'll sell some of it for $30 a brick. Then whenever the prices finally go flat, they'll still be selling off the last of it for $20-25 a brick. That's not really a loss, you know. That's still a lot of net profit along the way, and even if they're totally STUCK with it, they break even.

The people they sold a few bricks to at $50/brick? They aren't exactly going to go commit seppuku over it. They got to shoot some when they wanted to. Or they've got some in the case for next time. They aren't going to starve or lose their houses over it. (Unless they're total idiots and would have done so anyway...)

The manufacturers will cash in and up production... mark my words. They are much better at this than us and they undoubtedly will want to cash in on the new shooting customers. Even regulated businesses, which these are not, would make every attempt to get market share when these is a demand like this.Oh sure. They're working on it. They'll bring on production as they can. But as I pointed out, that takes a lot of time to get moving. And a LOOOOT of money. And a lot of market study to prove to themselves and their investors that this isn't just a panic bubble that's going to leave them with vast production capacity that they don't have buyers for, come 2016 or 2020. Remember, if a company invests $30 million in a new production facility, they're going to be paying that off for A WHILE. If this current demand bubble doesn't keep raging on, they stand to be paying the notes and taxes, and employees (for a while) on a production line that they don't even bother to run. Wanna kill a business fast? Make a tragically misguided investment of that magnitude.

Sometimes our worst enemy is ourselves and our greed.I really just don't see it. All the positive benefits of millions of new gun owners and vast amounts of money infusing our favorite gun and ammo companies, and all the messages that sends to our political types, but we're somehow harming ourselves and our sport/passion/rights/future because ammo's gone up in price or is a little more difficult to locate for a year or so? Naaah. Don't stress it.

orionengnr
February 4, 2014, 08:32 PM
A week ago, I stopped in at my LGS. She had just a couple 500-round boxes of Blazer .22LR. She offered me one, and I took it...and offered it to my friend and co-worker, who takes Boy Scouts out shooting whenever he has the range time and ammo.

That was $24 for 500 rounds...better than I've seen in a long time. He was happy to get it for that price, and he and his Scouts will burn it up this weekend.

And I'll get him some more as soon as I can. And my hat is off to my LGS for offering it to me and to Jim at that price. There are still some decent people left in this world.

Doubleobuck
February 4, 2014, 08:36 PM
No I'm not buying any ammo :)

jcwit
February 4, 2014, 08:43 PM
I really just don't see it. All the positive benefits of millions of new gun owners and vast amounts of money infusing our favorite gun and ammo companies, and all the messages that sends to our political types, but we're somehow harming ourselves and our sport/passion/rights/future because ammo's gone up in price or is a little more difficult to locate for a year or so? Naaah. Don't stress it

None of us know for a fact that all these gun sales to millions of folks were/are in fact new gun owners. Nore do we know what the % is.

Sam1911
February 4, 2014, 08:49 PM
Sure. But so what? Selling ammo is selling ammo. Money flowing like a river to gun and ammo manufacturers, wholesalers, distributors, retailers. I think that's great! I hope they're using it wisely, reinvesting it, doing deferred maintenance, expanding, improving, developing their distribution/logistics lines ... or heck, just getting rich for providing Americans with more guns and ammo! Hooray for it!

And YEAH, we do know that SOME of it is going to however many new shooters there are, because otherwise they wouldn't BE shooters (hence, shoot-ing).

And those new shooters are buying it for some price. Maybe they're buying it at $20 a brick from WalMart when they can find it. Maybe they're buying it at $50/brick off of GunBroker because they want it NOW. That doesn't HURT our sport.

You and I can't fathom such high prices for ammo. We're use to blowing through it by the brick. But the new folks coming into the scene only know this current reality. And they're joining it anyway! If prices come down to $30 a brick on average, they'll think things are AWESOME.

huntsman
February 4, 2014, 08:54 PM
Quote:
demand driven by idiots,



Quote:


So that is what you think of all of the new shooters who have joined the hobby since Dec 2012.

fad clothing and toys is just demand driven by idiots,

FWIW the original comment had nothing to do with new shooters but with folks who chase the latest shoe or stand in line for a game

Forley
February 4, 2014, 09:22 PM
because we have folks who never had more than box or two at home and would just buy some on the way to the range now feeling the need to buy 5 year's worth?


Guilty. I never hoarded ammo before, but just the other day I was at Wal-mart early, saw 6 boxes of WWB 9mm. Bought 3, wandered around until a bit later after shift change and bought the other 3. Shooting one box this weekend, rest have been put up in an ammo can. They have plenty of .40, .45, 5.56/223, rarely 9mm, hardly ever .22. Haven't seen .38 or .357 in quite a while.

jcwit
February 4, 2014, 09:26 PM
Sam, as I've mentioned earlier one of the ranges I belong to sponsors our count 4-H shooting sports group, amounting to 800 members this year. We provide the firearms, ammo, range, and of course targets.

If it had not been for Federal and their program for junior shooter clubs and our group winning one of the 30 drawings it is very doubtful if it would have continued for this year and the next. But as luck, yes luck would have it, it was salvaged because we were one of 30 clubs across the U.S. to be fortunate enough to win the lottery.

Now explain to me and our members again how this madness is not hurting our sport, and future shooters. Make it simple as I'm obviously not the sharpest tack in the box either.LOL

Agsalaska
February 4, 2014, 09:31 PM
Guilty. I never hoarded ammo before, but just the other day I was at Wal-mart early, saw 6 boxes of WWB 9mm. Bought 3, wandered around until a bit later after shift change and bought the other 3. Shooting one box this weekend, rest have been put up in an ammo can. They have plenty of .40, .45, 5.56/223, rarely 9mm, hardly ever .22. Haven't seen .38 or .357 in quite a while.
I am also very guilty.

Agsalaska
February 4, 2014, 09:37 PM
Sam, as I've mentioned earlier one of the ranges I belong to sponsors our count 4-H shooting sports group, amounting to 800 members this year. We provide the firearms, ammo, range, and of course targets.

If it had not been for Federal and their program for junior shooter clubs and our group winning one of the 30 drawings it is very doubtful if it would have continued for this year and the next. But as luck, yes luck would have it, it was salvaged because we were one of 30 clubs across the U.S. to be fortunate enough to win the lottery.

Now explain to me and our members again how this madness is not hurting our sport, and future shooters. Make it simple as I'm obviously not the sharpest tack in the box either.LOL
And I know six guys in Las Vegas, four of whom voted for Harry Reid, that bought their first guns last year. Three bought handguns and three bought shotguns, all for SD. Four are married with children. And as far as I know none of them have had any exposure to firearms. All three who bought handguns have completed their CC permits. And one of them called me last week to get advice on a good deer gun for beginners.

So tell me, how is this madness not helping our sport?

Agsalaska
February 4, 2014, 09:42 PM
Now explain to me and our members again how this madness is not hurting our sport, and future shooters. Make it simple as I'm obviously not the sharpest tack in the box either.LOL

Is there any way you could possibly sum up exactly what you believe is the solution to this perceived problem?

Thanks

jcwit
February 4, 2014, 10:11 PM
Six idiots, yes idiots as they voted for reid and one guy asking about a deer rifle for a junior is a whole lot different than 800 junior shooters, in one county. Yup 6 dudes out of a population of almost 600,000 is a real BIG help.

Population of Las Vegas alone is 6 times what the population of our entire county is.

jcwit
February 4, 2014, 10:14 PM
Is there any way you could possibly sum up exactly what you believe is the solution to this perceived problem?

Being as I'm obviously not the sharpest tack in the box, I have no idea. But I sure can see and recognize the problem or at least part of it.

Sam1911
February 4, 2014, 10:23 PM
Now explain to me and our members again how this madness is not hurting our sport, and future shooters. Make it simple as I'm obviously not the sharpest tack in the box either.LOL
Isn't it obvious? You have so many shooters out there buying ammo -- including all those folks coming to your club -- that clubs have to resort to extraordinary measures just to meet the ammo demand!

"Too many" people out there shooting (and buying ammo for whatever reason...eating it, I don't care) is a GREAT thing!

I guess you can wish and hope and long for the days when your club had tons of ammo and only a handful of participants to come shoot it, but I won't. One boom goes hand-in-hand with the other. All sides of the same coin.

And if you say you've seen no great corresponding increase in your numbers of participants, then yeah, I'm sorry things aren't easy for your regulars, but we're all in the same boat here (unless, of course, you hoarded up before hand and can share some out with them) -- and they got off very well through the foresight and generosity of Federal -- who is able to do that through the abundance of their profits from massive sales.

Sam1911
February 4, 2014, 10:29 PM
And why are you still doing the "poor dumb me" routine? It's fake and silly, and should be beneath you. I get that you don't agree, or at least see what I see the way I see it, but just say, "Hey, I don't understand, can you explain it better?" Or a simple, "I think you're wrong about that, and here's why..."

That's a whole lot more becoming than this, "Ohh, I'm a poor dumb slug without a clue in my empty head -- speak slow and use short words so I git it," business. It is off-putting.

Warp
February 4, 2014, 10:32 PM
It seems kind of funny how on a thread, not a few days ago, I posted that there were more shooters and that the manufacturers should jump on it by bumping up production, allowing the same profit margin while retaining the new customers and I was pretty much called out for being wrong, because this is just a market bubble, and now, some of those same folks are saying these prices are here to stay because of all of the increased demand by all of the new shooters, Which is it? .

Please point out, specifically, who said that.

Especially the "prices are here to stay" part.

The price right now is what it is right now, but I don't recall anybody saying that $55 for a 525 round bulk box of Federal .22lr was "here to stay"

Warp
February 4, 2014, 10:33 PM
Being as I'm obviously not the sharpest tack in the box, I have no idea. But I sure can see and recognize the problem or at least part of it.

The problem is a lot of demand for the supply at this time.

Why is there so much demand? Because of the politicians. Because of an expanding cadre of shooters. Because of the politicians.

danez71
February 4, 2014, 11:14 PM
So tell me, how is this madness not helping our sport?

Is there any way you could possibly sum up exactly what you believe is the solution to this perceived problem?

Thanks

How about trying to not answer a question with a question? Are you trying to have a meaningful conversation or are you just trying to turn this into a <deleted> to deflect away from actually providing any meaning input?


jcwit provided an example of a club full of kids wanting to learn to shoot.

Agsalaska provided a handful of adults that apparently never took interest until the panic that also happen to have a few kids that the adults may or may not be including.


+~50 (+1 for ea. kid in the club) to jcwit

+7.5 (+ .75 for ea. adult late comer & possible kid ) to agsalaska

Originally posted by Sam1911
And those new shooters are buying it for some price. Maybe they're buying it at $20 a brick from WalMart when they can find it. Maybe they're buying it at $50/brick off of GunBroker because they want it NOW. That doesn't HURT our sport.


Or maybe they don't buy it AT ALL.

Tons of people get into new hobbies only to realize they don't want to put in the commitment of funds to keep it going. Hence the reason why there are roughly 2.321 bazillion snow ski's, gym equipment, ping pong tables, mountain bikes etc etc. collecting dust in garages all of the nation.

That does ZERO for our sport or worst, hurt it because all they did was fuel the panic fire and leave.




Originally posted by Sam1911

You and I can't fathom such high prices for ammo. We're use to blowing through it by the brick. But the new folks coming into the scene only know this current reality. And they're joining it anyway! If prices come down to $30 a brick on average, they'll think things are AWESOME.

Do you think these new shooter live in a vacuum?
Do you think they haven't been told by other longer terms shooter that prices were much lower before... that they should be coming down?

Do you think that these new shooters that joined THR and have seen these seemingly endless threads about the high price for the past YEAR+... and that some of them wished they knew this BEFORE they bought a gun and couldn't find ammo?




The end sum game here is that if new shooters cant get ammo or that ammo is prohibitively expensive, most of the new shooters will lose interest and not continue. It happens in every hobby/sport (as Sam1911 did).

Yes. I said hobby/sport. Most getting in now "because of the panic" were not particularly Pro 2A otherwise they more than likely would not have waited until a "panic". The exception mainly being people that were underage until the panic hit.

If people are shooting less, shooting ranges go out of business.. further making it difficult for new and existing shooters to further their journey. Gun shops start hurting and go out of business.


Typically, the most beneficial thing to come out of a shortage is increased supply capacity.

Since we haven't seen much of that, overall, the shortage is doing more harm that good no matter how many times our beloved armchair internet economists try to spin it...

danez71
February 4, 2014, 11:17 PM
Please point out, specifically, who said that.

Especially the "prices are here to stay" part.

The price right now is what it is right now, but I don't recall anybody saying that $55 for a 525 round bulk box of Federal .22lr was "here to stay"


I don't know if any of them are the one in this thread... and I don't want to figure it out... but....

There have been post on THR that 'basically' say these prices are here to stay.

Sam1911
February 4, 2014, 11:19 PM
I don't think anyone feels that more shooters is a bad thing.

I guess the breakdown is over whether A) there are tons of new shooters and they and the old shooters together are buying tons of ammo these days so we all have to pay higher prices because of pretty straightforward supply-and-demand, or B) there are some new shooters but a small group is buying up the vast majority of the ammo so the rest of us (old and new shooters alike) can't find any or have to pay even higher prices than we would if it was just ... well, like regular inflated demand.

Honestly, I don't think there's any real way to PROVE either view. I lean more toward the first version, but I certainly understand that there are some people just buying lots of ammo at every possible opportunity. Does it really matter in the end?

About half of us seem to be "doing our part" to end the shortage by not buying any .22 ammo for a year or more now. Is it helping? A lot of us seem to be buying some when we can find it because we're low, or because we don't want to be caught like this again. Is that somehow wrong? Should we abstain?

danez71
February 4, 2014, 11:42 PM
I don't think anyone feels that more shooters is a bad thing.
...
...
...

Honestly, I don't think there's any real way to PROVE either view. I lean more toward the first version, but I certainly understand that there are some people just buying lots of ammo at every possible opportunity. Does it really matter in the end?



New shooters are a good thing. The shortage, assuming a good % of the shooters stay, with-out an eventual increase in supply capacity is only a bad thing.

Doesn't really matter why. Only matters what the end result is in the long run.



Something a page or 2 pack.... to the effect of "if the stores sell it for what the scalpers are selling it for there wouldn't be a grey market.

I think it was said by someone that must try to learn about this stuff on internet forums because that is ....Moooo-Larky!


Take sports tickets for example. Every year the prices go up. A majority of the time they don't even sell out of regular season games. Yet at every game Ive been to, there are scalpers out front selling tickets.

Scalpers exist for many many reasons besides just offering a product that isn't available thru the traditional source.

To think scalpers are only there due to that reason is naïve.

Sam1911
February 4, 2014, 11:43 PM
jcwit provided an example of a club full of kids wanting to learn to shoot.

Agsalaska provided a handful of adults that apparently never took interest until the panic that also happen to have a few kids that the adults may or may not be including.


+~50 (+1 for ea. kid in the club) to jcwit

+7.5 (+ .75 for ea. adult late comer & possible kid ) to agsalaska
How many clubs are there with, let's say 50, kids who want to shoot but can't because of the shortage? Compare that pretty low number with the number of random "handfuls of adults" across the country who are getting into shooting? No prayer of a comparison there. We all know how many people compete or train or participate in organized events -vs.- how many don't bother and just want to go plink. It's better than 100s:1 against.

Or maybe they don't buy it AT ALL. So there are these thousands of new shooters who aren't buying ANY ammo? How's that again? You'd have to accept that the ammo is all being bought up by the hoarders/scalpers/flippers/etc. not by the average joe shooters looking for a bit of range time, and that doesn't jibe with what almost any of us are seeing out in the real world.

Tons of people get into new hobbies only to realize they don't want to put in the commitment of funds to keep it going. Hence the reason why there are roughly 2.321 bazillion snow ski's, gym equipment, ping pong tables, mountain bikes etc etc. collecting dust in garages all of the nation. Yeah. That was bound to happen with any bubble. We're fortunate that the surge in interest in shooting has continued this long. But...

That does ZERO for our sport or worst, hurt it because all they did was fuel the panic fire and leave. Fuel the fire, leave, and dump lots of second-hand gear, guns, and ammo back into the hands of those who stick it out? :) I'm cool with that. That's a market correction for you.

Now some of our members are saying "this is the new normal -- there won't ever be any market corrections" but I don't really agree.

Do you think these new shooter live in a vacuum?
Do you think they haven't been told by other longer terms shooter that prices were much lower before... that they should be coming down?

Do you think that these new shooters that joined THR and have seen these seemingly endless threads about the high price for the past YEAR+... and that some of them wished they knew this BEFORE they bought a gun and couldn't find ammo?
Yup. Just like my Dad and Uncles told me of how it was dumb to pay $450 for a 1903A3, or $265 for an M1 Garand, because they used to buy them for $15 from a barrel down at the hardware store. Or how I, myself, realize I should have bought a truckload of Chinese SKS rifles for $80 a piece a few years back. Or Mausers, Enfields, etc.,etc.

None of that has cooled my interest even a little. Times change. Everyone wishes they got in "when the getting was good." So what? ESPECIALLY with guns stuff, that doesn't seem to turn off ANYBODY. And if it does turn off a few, their re-sold gear will just dump back into a hungry market and help to calm the waters. All part of the market correction process.

Why fret? We can't even begin to fight it, and we don't have to.

The end sum game here is that if new shooters cant get ammo or that ammo is prohibitively expensive, most of the new shooters will lose interest and not continue. It happens in every hobby/sportAgain, that's inevitable. If the ammo was FREE we'd probably see it happen just as fast. Remember, shortages don't make people stop wanting a product. They actually makes them HUNGRIER for it. Eventually some will give up and drop out. Most would have anyway. Some will continue longer and buy more than they ever would have (I'm thinking of our own Queen of Thunder when I write this -- and I do hope she's not at all offended) because of the habit/thrill of the hunt.

If people are shooting less, shooting ranges go out of business.ARE people shooting less? Not at all that I've seen. Are there gun ranges sitting vacant these days? It's not a problem I've run across. Ammo is expensive and can be hard to find. But that hasn't lead to an overall reduction in shooting, I don't think. In fact, it seems to be fed by an INCREASE in shooting, overall. If no one's shooting, the ammo isn't getting used up. The whole nation's supply is NOT going into the backs of people's closets and into the bunkers of the preppers.

Gun shops start hurting and go out of business.Again, is this actually happening now? I do know that many shops had a rough patch during the spring/summer of 2013 when there actually were widespread shortages due to lag in the supply system when hit with enormous demand. But the shops are doing a booooming business these days, from what I've seen. Is that mistaken? Are they folding up in record numbers and I'm just not seeing it?

Typically, the most beneficial thing to come out of a shortage is increased supply capacity.

Since we haven't seen much of that, overall, the shortage is doing more harm that good...We already covered that several times. Why anyone would expect a whole industry to decide to, and be able to, ramp up production beyond 24/7 shifts on their existing production lines within a year is beyond me. These things take a lot of time, and an enormous amount of careful consideration.

... no matter how many times our beloved armchair internet economists try to spin it...Hey! Is that ME? It IS me, isn't it? It's so nice to be noticed! :)

Sam1911
February 4, 2014, 11:50 PM
New shooters are a good thing. The shortage, assuming a good % of the shooters stay, with-out an eventual increase in supply capacity is only a bad thing.Ok, covered that one.

... to the effect of "if the stores sell it for what the scalpers are selling it for there wouldn't be a grey market.

I think it was said by someone that must try to learn about this stuff on internet forums because that is ....Moooo-Larky!
Nope, I said if the stores would follow the market prices up to something close to the average selling price out there "in the wild" it would remove the incentive for reselling. And it would.

Take sports tickets for example. Every year the prices go up. A majority of the time they don't even sell out of regular season games. Yet at every game Ive been to, there are scalpers out front selling tickets.

Scalpers exist for many many reasons besides just offering a product that isn't available thru the traditional source. Ok, that is probably true (though I'll have to take your word for it, I don't do sports) but there would be many reasons scalpers would sell tickets to games that didn't sell out. Like, say, seats on the 50 yard line, or other premium seats that DID sell out far ahead of time. None of that is directly analogous to ammo.

To think scalpers are only there due to that reason is naïve.I don't think that is the only reason ALL scalpers work their angle. I think that the only reason that anyone can make a profit reselling .22 ammo in the USA in 2013/14 is that some outlets are selling it at below the cost that many shooters are willing to pay for it.

If you have any possible rebuttal of that, I certainly am listening. If people aren't willing to pay a lot more than what WalMart sells ammo for, WHY are they buying it from "scalpers?" I'll be very interested to hear how factors other than the simplest of economics are relevant.

AKElroy
February 4, 2014, 11:54 PM
So the scalpers who are selling ammo at inflated prices that they purchased from retails outlets are setting the market value?

Using this logic the big box retail stores have no idea what the market value is.

OOOOOOOOOOOOoooooKAY

Pigs fly too.


Big retailers are not in the commodity speculation business. They are in the long-term sustainability business, and that includes keeping a long term customer base. The folks stocking up to re-sell are speculating, and many will get caught holding the bag when supply finally meets market demand, which it will. It always does.

I have an acquaintance that got stuck with 3 dozen AR's that are now worth roughly half we he has in them. The same will happen with ammo. It is a mathematical certainty, as more rounds are being sold than shot. This can only mean that supply is steadily increasing relative to demand, and it matters not where that supply exists. If it is out there, it is for sale. Everything is.

Eventually that supply will tip, and even the hoarders will be forced to let it go for what the market will bear, and that will be at a price far below what they had hoped simply to replenish their cash flow. In fact, it will be well below the retail they paid. If I'm paying retail, I'm going to a store. If I'm going to some guys basement, I'm getting a deal. They PAID retail, so they lose. Eventually.

The trick for the speculators is to not be the one without a chair when the music stops, as they will all be grasping for the same falling knife at that point. The walmarts of the world did not achieve their amazing success by following such short term, risky practices.additionally, Walmart is far more interested in drowning speculators under an eventually unsaleable supply than gouging a loyal customer base.

Sam1911
February 5, 2014, 12:11 AM
The folks stocking up to re-sell are speculating, and many will get caught holding the bag when supply finally meets market demand, which it will. It always does.

I have an acquaintance that got stuck with 3 dozen AR's that are now worth roughly half we he has in them. The same will happen with ammo. It is a mathematical certainty, as more rounds are being sold than shot. Eventually that supply will tip, and even the hoarders will be forced to let it go for what the market will bear, and that will be at a price far below what they had hoped simply to replenish their cash flow.

The trick for the speculators is to not be the one without a chair when the music stops.

The only difference I'll point out is that there ARE still sources for pretty cheap .22 ammo. You can still hit a WalMart and get three bricks a day for right at $20, if you're lucky and/or persistent. The supposed folks who are "flipping" really don't stand to lose ANYTHING if they get stuck holding bricks of .22 that have dropped back in value to pre-panic prices.

That's what makes this so appealing and probably inevitable. It's a no-risk game.

Now, if one guy sells it to the next guy for $30, who sells it to the next guy for $40, who sells it to the next guy for $50 ... yeah, then someone's getting left "without a chair."

But if the long-term sustainability retailers (great description!) hold their prices artificially far below the market indefinitely, the risk just never materializes for whichever folks are still doing the flipping thing.

As I said before:

Will there be some folks who get STUCK with ammo they intended to "flip" and now can't make a lot of money on? Heck, probably. That's finance for you. Every investment is a risk. But the thing is, if they bought it for $20 a brick, they'll sell some of it for $50 a brick. They'll sell a lot of it for $40 a brick. Then as things loosen up they'll sell some of it for $30 a brick. Then whenever the prices finally go flat, they'll still be selling off the last of it for $20-25 a brick. That's not really a loss, you know. That's still a lot of net profit along the way, and even if they're totally STUCK with it, they break even.

danez71
February 5, 2014, 12:26 AM
So there are these thousands of new shooters who aren't buying ANY ammo?


Judging by the # of posts just on THR by long term shooters saying "I'm not paying these ridiculous prices!!!" ... Yes. There are 1000's that aren't buying any ammo.



Fuel the fire, leave, and dump lots of second-hand gear, guns, and ammo back into the hands of those who stick it out? :) I'm cool with that. That's a market correction for you.


Or the stuff just sits in the garage collecting dust like I said and possibly just disposed of when the owner dies.



Now some of our members are saying "this is the new normal -- there won't ever be any market corrections" but I don't really agree.

Me either. But I don't think it will ever be as good as the old days either.


None of that has cooled my interest even a little. Times change. Everyone wishes they got in "when the getting was good." So what? ESPECIALLY with guns stuff, that doesn't seem to turn off ANYBODY. And if it does turn off a few, their re-sold gear will just dump back into a hungry market and help to calm the waters. All part of the market correction process.

But youre NOT the new shooter that has a bit of interest sparked by a panic.

Most people wont just turn around and resell their stuff. It will collect dust for at least few years or more and wont help a "market correction" for at least a few years.

The longer any market is in this state, the more damage it does.


Remember, shortages don't make people stop wanting a product. They actually makes them HUNGRIER for it.

Says who?


Eventually some will give up and drop out.

Oh.... Apparently you don't believe what you said either. ;)



ARE people shooting less? Not at all that I've seen.

Are you blind to all of the posts here of people saying they are shooting less. Same on TFL. Same on Calguns. Same on rimfirecentral etc etc etc etc

Come on man.... seriously?!?!?

I cant even believe you wrote that.



I'm not saying that you are waaaaaaay off but when you don't/cant acknowledge the evidence that is right here on this forum that contradicts you, it comes across that you're just rationalizing things rather than using rational thought.


Hey! Is that ME? It IS me, isn't it? It's so nice to be noticed! :)

Actually it wasn't you. If you want to include yourself, by all means, do so.

AKElroy
February 5, 2014, 12:39 AM
But if the long-term sustainability retailers (great description!) hold their prices artificially far below the market indefinitely, the risk just never materializes for whichever folks are still doing the flipping thing.

It does, though. They will not be flipping for the retail they paid when they get stuck holding the bag. As I stated earlier, supply is increasing relative to demand every day. Prices are going to come down, and in a speculation-driven market, they always tend to come down dramatically.

This is not gasoline we are discussing. Ammo is being stock-piled far more than consumed. That is a bubble, one born out of legislative panic that failed to come to fruition and stands little to no chance of coming to be any time soon. This bubble will pop, and it will not be walmart getting hurt when it does.

Like I said before, when this bubble pops, I'm not paying Bobby Hoarder anywhere near the retail he shelled out when I can go to a nicely lit store that never attempted to screw me in the first place.

danez71
February 5, 2014, 12:45 AM
I don't think that is the only reason ALL scalpers work their angle. I think that the only reason that anyone can make a profit reselling .22 ammo in the USA in 2013/14 is that some outlets are selling it at below the cost that many shooters are willing to pay for it.

.

(Sam, some parts of my posts were not meant to insinuate that I was rebutting you but I'm sure it did seem that way.)


You're equating "willingness to pay" with "reason for paying" and you shouldn't.

For example:
I may be willing to pay extra for ammo at the gun range for the reason that I forgot to stop by Wally and buy it cheaper. (in normal times)

or

Im willing to pay extra to a flipper instead of watching wikiammofinder all day long. (in todays world)


If you have any possible rebuttal of that, I certainly am listening. If people aren't willing to pay a lot more than what WalMart sells ammo for, WHY are they buying it from "scalpers?" I'll be very interested to hear how factors other than the simplest of economics are relevant


Some people aren't willing to pay a lot more as evidenced by all of the "I'm not paying that much!!!" posts.

As to "why", see 2 possible examples above.


"willingness" and "reason" are 2 different things.

Just because someone has a reason doesn't mean they're willing. And, just because someone is willing doesn't mean they have a reason.

Sam1911
February 5, 2014, 12:56 AM
Judging by the # of posts just on THR by long term shooters saying "I'm not paying these ridiculous prices!!!" ... Yes. There are 1000's that aren't buying any ammo.But most of those here (5 or 10 to one) who say that follow up with "I've had piles of ammo stacked up since the last panic ... or the '70s." 1000s do buy ammo. 1000s don't. Someone's buying it and lots of folks are shooting.

Fuel the fire, leave, and dump lots of second-hand gear, guns, and ammo back into the hands of those who stick it out? I'm cool with that. That's a market correction for you.

Or the stuff just sits in the garage collecting dust like I said and possibly just disposed of when the owner dies.
Yeah, or that. And then it re-enters the market years down the line. Doesn't really make any difference, does it? Who cares if it is shot up or stuck in a closet? You really can't prove it is one or the other, so the argument is a wash.

Now some of our members are saying "this is the new normal -- there won't ever be any market corrections" but I don't really agree.
Me either. But I don't think it will ever be as good as the old days either.Probably not, or not exactly. Ammo prices have really been all over the map, compared to real (adjusted) income, over the decades. Folks point out that back in the '30s-'40s a kid might be given ONE shotgun shell to bag dinner for the family because that was all they could afford. Inflation, cost of living, wages rising and falling, standard of living changes = all pretty hard to make universal predictions or comparisons.

But youre NOT the new shooter that has a bit of interest sparked by a panic.No. I was at one time, though. But again, I don't really expect much from the bubble of new shooters. Newbies to anything rarely stick with it at rates of more than 1-5% even in really good times. I think there are benefits to us even from folks who will remember when they did own an AR-15 for a while back in '13 -- they won't ever be likely to vote deliberately against us. And a few of the new folks will stick it out. Net win.

Most people wont just turn around and resell their stuff. It will collect dust for at least few years or more and wont help a "market correction" for at least a few years.Ok...so? The manufacturers' new production will start to come on line (if they believe the long-term holding power of "the bubble" as some here do), and whatever hoarders there really are will eventually just HAVE to fill that last closet and have no more room for ammo, and some folks will just drop out of the game. And the market will stabilize. It really doesn't worry me how exactly it sorts itself out.

The longer any market is in this state, the more damage it does.Again...what damage? Convincing new shooters that ammo is expensive and sometimes hard to find? Well, that's a good all 'round lesson.

Remember, shortages don't make people stop wanting a product. They actually makes them HUNGRIER for it.
Says who?
Ever hear of "Veblen Goods (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veblen_good)?" That's just one example of the phenomenon, really. You could get into games theory as well as basic psychology. Tell someone they'd better get while they can, and you spur their drive to "get."


Eventually some will give up and drop out.
Oh.... Apparently you don't believe what you said either.

No, I said that several times. SOME will indeed give up. Some will inevitably, regardless of how good or bad ammo supplies are today.


ARE people shooting less? Not at all that I've seen.
Are you blind to all of the posts here of people saying they are shooting less. Same on TFL. Same on Calguns. Same on rimfirecentral etc etc etc etc

Come on man.... seriously?!?!?

I cant even believe you wrote that. Well, believe it. I sure did. Yeah, folks say that here on the dedicated enthusiasts' forums. Where the average member might run through 100 a week, and the die-hards at least a brick a week. Yeah, they're cutting back. But overall? No, I don't buy it. We aren't seeing demand like this because folks AREN'T shooting. Remember how few of us die-hards there are, compared to how many average joe shooters are out there. We're heavily outnumbered by folks who didn't get the message that they should STOP shooting. Plenty of them just say, "woah, was it this much before?" and throw down the credit card for a brick or two. Still cheaper than dinner and a movie.

At least, that's how it appears to me.

I'm not saying that you are waaaaaaay off but when you don't/cant acknowledge the evidence that is right here on this forum that contradicts you, it comes across that you're just rationalizing things rather than using rational thought.Ok, hope I've dispelled that worry.

Hey! Is that ME? It IS me, isn't it? It's so nice to be noticed!
Actually it wasn't you. If you want to include yourself, by all means, do so.
Awww, darn it. I hate to be left out.

AKElroy
February 5, 2014, 12:57 AM
That's what makes this so appealing and probably inevitable. It's a no-risk game.

There is an additional layer of risk as well, that being the damage done to the customer base of the mom & pop store selling bricks for $75-$80. There is a reason walmart does not do the same. Taking advantage of a temporary supply problem is bad for repeat business. Many LGS's will learn this the hard way when Walmart is standing there, selling for the same reasonable prices throughout all this speculation. People hold on to things like that.

RetiredUSNChief
February 5, 2014, 12:59 AM
Now explain to me and our members again how this madness is not hurting our sport, and future shooters. Make it simple as I'm obviously not the sharpest tack in the box either.LOL

OK, I'll give it a crack from an angle nobody else has mentioned yet:

The demand, and duration of that demand, which has made it so difficult to obtain ammunition is the result of transferring billions upon billions of rounds of ammunition into the hands of private citizens in this country, just as fast as the ammunition companies can make it and ship it.

Name a time in our nation's history when so much ammunition has been in the hands of private citizens.

How can this NOT help our sport and future shooters?

Sam1911
February 5, 2014, 01:00 AM
Like I said before, when this bubble pops, I'm not paying Bobby Hoarder anywhere near the retail he shelled out when I can go to a nicely lit store that never attempted to screw me in the first place.
So you then must be saying you think the market price will fall BELOW what WalMart sold Bobby Hoarder that brick for?

So you think we'll see $10 - $15 bricks of .22s next year? :eek: Well, that's a bold prediction. I don't think many folks are going with you there, but I sure hope so!

Sam1911
February 5, 2014, 01:04 AM
"willingness" and "reason" are 2 different things.

Just because someone has a reason doesn't mean they're willing. And, just because someone is willing doesn't mean they have a reason.
Well...uh...ok. It's late and I'm probably getting a bit confused, but if someone doesn't buy the scalpers don't make money and therefore will be encouraged to lower the price until someone has both the reason and the willingness to buy from them.

So, until the scalpers take up arms and FORCE people to buy .22 ammo, we're really only pinning this situation on the people (darn them!) who are indeed WILLING to pay the high prices.

AKElroy
February 5, 2014, 01:04 AM
I don't think that is the only reason ALL scalpers work their angle. I think that the only reason that anyone can make a profit reselling .22 ammo in the USA in 2013/14 is that some outlets are selling it at below the cost that many shooters are willing to pay for it.

True, but only in the short term. Long term retail planning dictates that prices follow sustainable consumption, not temporary demand. This is why we do not see manufacturers doubling or tripling their plant & equipment investments; they would choke on the expense when the market returns to supplying what people actually shoot. If they are supplying that need, and that need only, then they are where they need to be long term. The rest will sort itself out, and the steady planners will win over the speculators. They always do.

Sam1911
February 5, 2014, 01:11 AM
There is an additional layer of risk as well, that being the damage done to the customer base of the mom & pop store selling bricks for $75-$80. There is a reason walmart does not do the same. Taking advantage of a temporary supply problem is bad for repeat business. Many LGS's will learn this the hard way when Walmart is standing there, selling for the same reasonable prices throughout all this speculation. People hold on to things like that.
Yes, a very fine line to try to walk. Really, though, we should be just as mad at WalMart. They're not on the market price, either.

Of course, a free market fanatic will say, "People will remember how WalMart never had stock on their shelves when they went in over and over to buy. But the local shop kept their prices in line with the market and always had a box or two for someone who REALLY needed it enough to spend the extra cash." :) Neither view is probably perfectly accurate.

Much better for everyone to follow the supply/demand curve and accept a bit of price rise that would have stabilized (in other words, "kept the lid more tightly on") demand. If WalMart had let their pricing rise to maybe $30-$35 a brick (maybe $40 in BAD months), there would have been fewer stripped bare shelves and very few scalpers trying to make an additional $10-$40 on a brick.

Instead they kept the prices at $20 or so, sold out instantly every week (so you had to go to a scalper if you REALLY needed ammo), and kept lulling everyone into thinking that ammo "should" cost that much and "shouldn't" cost more.

It was good for WalMart and bad for the rest of us.

AKElroy
February 5, 2014, 01:13 AM
So you then must be saying you think the market price will fall BELOW what WalMart sold Bobby Hoarder that brick for?

So you think we'll see $10 - $15 bricks of .22s next year? Well, that's a bold prediction. I don't think many folks are going with you there, but I sure hope so!
__________________

That is precisely what I am saying. This market is being driven by legislative events that failed to transpire, so it is false demand. Prices will return to the level necessary to supply ammo actually consumed. I doubt next year, but eventually, absolutely. In a very real sense, We have never had MORE UNFIRED SUPPLY. That is a bubble, folks. Take heart. It will pop.

Sam1911
February 5, 2014, 01:18 AM
Well, I agree with everything there ... except...well, I'm not quite bold enough to say it will fall BELOW the 2012 prices. I can certainly see why it could and I will be proud and happy to eat crow if it does. But so many people have been screaming that it will never, ever be the same again and the dealers and manufacturers won't ever give up the current pricing and that there are millions of new shooters who will all need thousands of rounds a month...that I guess I'm too chicken-livered to get on board with you just yet! :D

AKElroy
February 5, 2014, 01:26 AM
My rep on this forum is not nearly as valuable as yours, Sam, so I'll gladly stake out this ground firmly. Bobby Hoarder will need his closet space back, and until the corner grocer starts taking ammo instead of currency, Bobby will eventually be forced by hunger to dump his supply for $.30 on the dollar if that's all he can get. Once that supply works into the marketplace, all prices tumble. Even current retail.

The only way to believe this will not be the case is to believe that all the current shortage is being caused by consumption. It isn't. This ammo is sitting there, with most of it earmarked for sale. That's a lot of supply.

Remember the most important part of this equation; retailers and manufacturers DO NOT set the pricing. Consumers do, based on what the availability requires them to pay. The more supply, the more availability, the less they are required to spend.

larryh1108
February 5, 2014, 06:08 AM
I keep reading how all we have to do is read the threads to see we're buying less due to price and shooting less due to supply. Then I see this being applied across the shooting sport as a whole. I strongly disagree.

Copied from our home page:
Members: 191,940, Active Members: 9,820

We also read how many people here are giving up public ranges because they are filled with tactical commandos who are ruining it for the serious shooters. We see threads by range officers of how we see a lot more women at the ranges as well as new shooters. All of these people are buying ammo somewhere. Someone is shooting, if you read our posts.

If there are 100 million gun owners, that means 1% is one million. .1% is 100K and .01% is 10K. With 9820 active members in this gun community, that is less than .01% of the general gun owning population. We are also more enthusiastic towards our sport than most. I find it funny that so many read how we won't pay inflated prices and don't shoot as much because we can't replace our supply so it applies to the entire gun community. It doesn't. Those numbers don't reflect the actual community.

Someone is buying it, some are shooting it and some are stashing it. Someone above covered it pretty well. They can go out to eat with a date and have a few drinks or they can buy a couple of bricks and plink for a few weeks or months. $100 for entertainment is $100 no matter how you slice it. They aren't crying because their $18 bricks are now $55. They don't care. They never paid $18 and if the prices ever fall back to those prices they will be happy but won't really care. They plunk down their plastic, buy the ammo at the going rate and go have their fun. The hard core guys sit here and complain. We don't represent the shooting public in general. We need to get over ourselves.

Duckdog
February 5, 2014, 06:39 AM
"Please point out, specifically, who said that.

Especially the "prices are here to stay" part.

The price right now is what it is right now, but I don't recall anybody saying that $55 for a 525 round bulk box of Federal .22lr was "here to stay"


Come on Warp. You know what has been said over and over, so I'm not going to fish around in the numerous threads in this post alone. I never said you had said this, but do you have a guilty conscious and maybe had said it ?;)

Agsalaska
February 5, 2014, 07:06 AM
danez71:

How about trying to not answer a question with a question? Are you trying to have a meaningful conversation or are you just trying to turn this into a <deleted> to deflect away from actually providing any meaning input?


jcwit provided an example of a club full of kids wanting to learn to shoot.

Agsalaska provided a handful of adults that apparently never took interest until the panic that also happen to have a few kids that the adults may or may not be including.

I was making a point. One that shouldn't have to be made. One that clearly, since you did the math, went WAY over your head.


I have spelled out, very clearly, what I believe the problem is with pricing. It starts around page six. It is also an educated opinion based on years of studying markets and, you know, pricing things.



JCWIT:
Six idiots, yes idiots as they voted for reid and one guy asking about a deer rifle for a junior is a whole lot different than 800 junior shooters, in one county. Yup 6 dudes out of a population of almost 600,000 is a real BIG help.

Population of Las Vegas alone is 6 times what the population of our entire county is.

Also flew right over your head since you did the math. And I will have to say, and I understand this is bordering on politics which is a no-no, but I do find your description of someone who voted for Reid very ironic.

Agsalaska
February 5, 2014, 07:09 AM
Sam:

Yes, a very fine line to try to walk. Really, though, we should be just as mad at WalMart. They're not on the market price, either.


This is where the problem starts. It always starts because a certain % of the supply is too cheap. Everything else on the pricing side is a reaction to that.

jrdolall
February 5, 2014, 07:38 AM
I think I will weigh in and add my speculation to the current speculation about the speculation everyone is speculating.

It's all speculation. I haven't seen(nor been able to add) a bit of factual evidence to any conversation relating to AMMO. We KNOW that there are a lot of new gun owners. We have no idea how many of them are actually shooting regularly so we don't know how much ammo they are buying. We KNOW that it is more difficult to find ammo at the common places. There have been umpteen times that people have claimed the Walmart isn't getting as much ammo as they did in 2010 but, again, we don't KNOW that.

I don't believe for a minute that prices of 22LR are EVER going to drop to pre-panic prices any more than I believe that gas is going to drop to $2 a gallon. I THINK that the new reality eventually will be bricks at $25.

Gee. More speculation. If anyone needs to know about produce prices let me know. I can give you some factual evidence based on many years experience in the business. Doesn't anyone on this forum work in the ammo business?

AKElroy
February 5, 2014, 08:10 AM
Yes, a very fine line to try to walk. Really, though, we should be just as mad at WalMart. They're not on the market price, either.
This is where the problem starts. It always starts because a certain % of the supply is too cheap. Everything else on the pricing side is a reaction to that.

No, it does not. The pricing policy is determined by larger retailers on a number of factors, not the least of which is where will we be when the inventory creation (hoarding) ends, and our shelved are full of LR? Mega retailers take a very long view of supply and demand, and seek to match pricing to actual consumption as the best long term strategy.

We will eventually be where we have always been, selling to meet the consumed demand, and competing with every other retailer with likewise full shelves. That limits pricing opportunity even further for the retailer, and prices fall.

Since I do believe this shortage is driven by inventory creation, then I likewise believe we have a tremendous supply growing in the marketplace. That will result in a big drop at some point, and if the supply at that drop exceeds where it was relative to demand back in 2012, which it will, then prices will fall below that point.

Sam1911
February 5, 2014, 08:18 AM
Which would be one reason manufacturers might NOT be investing $30 million or so in a new production line, even in the face of "unprecedented demand." They have to play the long game. If they're still paying off a gargantuan investment in 2020, but the bubble totally burst in 2015 and their new production plant is either a) sitting idle, or b) churning out ammo that now hardly sells at $0.02 a round, their company will go bankrupt.

(Or hey, maybe there will be a government bailout of the ammo industry. It could happen! ;))

AKElroy
February 5, 2014, 08:25 AM
Gee. More speculation. If anyone needs to know about produce prices let me know. I can give you some factual evidence based on many years experience in the business. Doesn't anyone on this forum work in the ammo business?

Pricing in the produce market actually makes my point. Prices are set based on supply that will be immediately consumed. No one stock-piles perishable items for resale later. Beef is a great example; the market price is ultimately driven by what people eat. With a multiple-year drought in cattle producing states, supply is lower, but people still eat. Prices go up.

With this ammo situation, it is being driven by high demand for inventory creation, not consumption. That supply will drive prices down as soon as inventories reach their saturation point.

In other words, hoarders are creating a temporary blip, and the supply they are garnering will precipitate a big drop. They are both the cause and the cure.

Sam1911
February 5, 2014, 08:32 AM
With this ammo situation, it is being driven by high demand for inventory creation, not consumption. That supply will drive prices down as soon as inventories reach their saturation point.

To be completely fair, though, that's speculation TOO. Demand is driven here by BOTH what people are shooting up and what they're storing away. No one can really say which is happening in larger numbers, only that both things are happening. It does stand to reason that there is some saturation level which will eventually top off the personal inventories of all the "stack it deep" folks, and when we hit that point (maybe we're starting to reach that now?) their demand will drop out of the market which will free up supply, which will lessen the pressure on others, which will help them reach their saturation point, which ... (and so on) ... until we're really only left with ammo for consumption driving the market.

But it just cannot be accurate to say either, "the market is driven by all the new shooters shooting up ammo and it will always be this way," OR, "the market is driven by stockpilers and one day soon they will all be full and the demand will vanish."

It's some kind of balance of forces.

AKElroy
February 5, 2014, 08:34 AM
Which would be one reason manufacturers might NOT be investing $30 million or so in a new production line, even in the face of "unprecedented demand." They have to play the long game. If they're still paying off a gargantuan investment in 2020, but the bubble totally burst in 2015 and their new production plant is either a) sitting idle, or b) churning out ammo that now hardly sells at $0.02 a round, their company will go bankrupt.


Precisely. The fact that they are NOT making these huge investments is a great sign for us that the real money interests expect prices to drop dramatically. Even a moderate increase in price, if permanent, would have them building capacity aggressively.

Sam1911
February 5, 2014, 08:37 AM
The fact that they are NOT making these huge investments is a great sign for us that the real money interests expect prices to drop dramatically. Even a moderate increase in price, if permanent, would have them building capacity aggressively.
Do we know for a fact that they are NOT? I was under the impression that some manufacturers were building new production, but now can't put my finger on it.

AKElroy
February 5, 2014, 08:42 AM
ut it just cannot be accurate to say either, "the market is driven by all the new shooters shooting up ammo and it will always be this way," OR, "the market is driven by stockpilers and one day soon they will all be full and the demand will vanish."

It's some kind of balance of forces

I will agree with you to this extent; prior to the current craziness, ammo speculation was not a significant part of the market. Now it is, and folks have made money on it. A new industry has been created, and while ultimate supply/demand will get prices lower at some point, the speculation industry that has cropped up will add a lot of volatility to the mix that we did not have to deal with previously. Wild pricing swings may be the new norm, even though the over-all average pricing will match long term consumption over time.

AKElroy
February 5, 2014, 08:46 AM
Do we know for a fact that they are NOT? I was under the impression that some manufacturers were building new production, but now can't put my finger on it.

I've read numerous articles on this, and they all have a similar theme. "We are adding prudent production and operating at maximum capacity to meet this market need". Remington is the only manufacturer I am aware of that has actually expanded; they added a factory that they had planned and started well before this current crisis.

I will attempt more research on this.

Sam1911
February 5, 2014, 08:50 AM
I think that Remington plant was what I was thinking about, but I had something regarding CCI/Blount in my brain, too but don't see anything now.

Agsalaska
February 5, 2014, 09:46 AM
No, it does not. The pricing policy is determined by larger retailers on a number of factors, not the least of which is where will we be when the inventory creation (hoarding) ends, and our shelved are full of LR? Mega retailers take a very long view of supply and demand, and seek to match pricing to actual consumption as the best long term strategy.

We will eventually be where we have always been, selling to meet the consumed demand, and competing with every other retailer with likewise full shelves. That limits pricing opportunity even further for the retailer, and prices fall.

Since I do believe this shortage is driven by inventory creation, then I likewise believe we have a tremendous supply growing in the marketplace. That will result in a big drop at some point, and if the supply at that drop exceeds where it was relative to demand back in 2012, which it will, then prices will fall below that point.
That is all correct. But it doesnt change the fact that the problem starts with the big box retailers. All you did is explain why. And tou are right and I agree with you. But the trigger on the price pproblem still begins with the underpriced goods.

Tirod
February 5, 2014, 09:47 AM
The overall result is that "somebody" IS buying the ammo, the shelves are still empty in places like Walmart. They haven't jacked up prices to slow down consumption, and those who want a box or two at their low retail price make the effort to show up early.

Those who are willing to pay more ARE paying more and see the price IS the market price.


That leaves the ones who point out they can't and won't pay high prices, accuse "hoarders" of making things difficult, and "scalpers" of horrible gut wrenching immorality selling at "above market price."

Nope, not happening that much. Buying a few boxes at a time is the province of someone shooting a few boxes at a time. Shooting is still going on. Hoarders - preppers - whatever - order crates and pallets, they are getting their's too, just waiting for it. Scalpers? Again, I'm waiting to hear from the hundreds of forumites about being propositioned in the halls of work or on the street "Hey, buddy, need some ammo?" It's about as mythological as someone trying to sell you pictures of your sister. It's urban myth. There are no scalpers. Do you see them lined up along the road outside your favorite shooting range with signs and crates of ammo?

Nobody is buying ammo from "scalpers." They are buying from vendors who are pricing it at MARKET PRICES, not the undervalued nearly no profit pricing that Walmart exercises as a loss leader right now to get you into the store. 'Cause, if you walk into the door, you will think of something else you need, and they do make profit on that.

It's why my wife and I don't shop Sam's Club anymore, the impulse purchases were more than the few necessities we needed.

Sam's right, Walmart is pricing things at their normal markup and it's creating an artificial standard. But the marketing aspect isn't them being high minded and ethical about it - they wouldn't bother if the add on sales weren't there.

Everybody else is simply marking up their normal percent over cost. And of course, there are a few who go much higher - but who can't find something on the internet that is price way over typical retail?

Case in point, I'm looking for a MFT Minimalist stock in Foliage Green. MSRP is about $59. I've found them as low as the high $40s, all the way up to $119. Most aren't in stock. Do I post up threads about the outrageous scalpers who are on the market at double the MSRP?

Hundreds of threads over the internet are, concerning ammo prices. NONE of the posters are buying it, tho. And those who do don't seem to mind.

So what we really have are some people upset at change and who are dragging out extreme examples to justify their view. And I see it as exactly the kind of thing that could play to the anti gunners benefit. When people complain "It's not FAIR!" what they are saying is "We can't play at the new level of competition and we want to institute new rules for force the game to accommodate us!"

And yet, Walmart IS doing that, and what do we hear? "Those scalpers are lining up and beating me to it! I DEMAND ammo be on the shelf waiting until I show up and buy it in my good sweet time."

It's a child's temper tantrum, and frankly, I don't blame the mods for killing the threads at all. It's not really hoarders or scalpers, it's a very egotistic view that the world cater to someone's personal desires and act in a manner to suit them, regardless of the realities of the marketplace. Because they won't get in line at Walmart, or pony up the price, they create fictional characters to blame, because they won't take the responsibility for their inaction. They just make up excuses why they choose to stand on the sidelines and try to save face doing it.

jcwit
February 5, 2014, 11:16 AM
So the general consensus among some of the members here is that the largest company in the world, the largest retail giant in the world, the largest retail giant in the history of mankind, the largest employer in the U.S. short of the government, has no idea what they are doing.

OK, its clearly obvious then that I'm the dumbest, stupidest, most ignorant sob that ever walked the face of the earth, right along with the giant Wal-Mart.

BTW, I'm not standing on the sidelines saving face, my stockpile will more than likely last my lifetime, 30 to 40 thousand rounds last a long time.

Agsalaska
February 5, 2014, 11:23 AM
Ckon man. Nobody is claiming that wal mart, which is bei n g used as a term to cover all big box retailers, doesnt k n ow what they are doing.

And your self loathing and self ridicule rants are borderline ridiculous.

jcwit
February 5, 2014, 11:34 AM
Nobody is claiming that wal mart, which is bei n g used as a term to cover all big box retailers, doesnt k n ow what they are doing.

Oh really? Check this.

They are buying from vendors who are pricing it at MARKET PRICES, not the undervalued nearly no profit pricing that Walmart exercises as a loss leader right now to get you into the store. 'Cause, if you walk into the door, you will think of something else you need, and they do make profit on that.


This claims that W/M is using ammo as a loss leader so the same few folks can pick it up every shipment day in the hops they will buy a loaf of bread. If in fact this is the case it supports my comment that they do not know what they are doing.

And your self loathing and self ridicule rants are borderline ridiculous.

Can't see or understand sarcasm when you see it, can you?

Mike1234567
February 5, 2014, 11:38 AM
Okay... I had to quit reading all the posts. It's just too painful because I disagree with so much that's written. The good, the bad, the ugly... this ammo debacle is all that combined.

To those who state that we can buy .22 LR from WM (or wherever) at a fair price; It's just not true. Maybe some of us can... just not in my area and after reading the majority of posts in the majority of these types of threads I can state without reservation that's the reality for most of us.

Frankly, I don't even care about the price of rimfire cartridges anymore. To be completely honest, at these crazy prices and/or impossible-to-find shortages, I don't need it. I'll shoot pellet guns and centerfire.

I can't trust myself to reload anymore but I'll be buying the equipment and supplies anyway and will barter to have someone I trust reload for me... I'll just be a second set of eyes. Even losing some of the cost savings to labor... it'll still be cheaper than buying factory loads and cheaper than rimfire... at least .22 WMR at 40 cents/rd. I'm done with rimfire. In fact, I'm going to sell my Rem 597 WMR on GB soon.

Agsalaska
February 5, 2014, 11:48 AM
Oh really? Check this.



This claims that W/M is using ammo as a loss leader so the same few folks can pick it up every shipment day in the hops they will buy a loaf of bread. If in fact this is the case it supports my comment that they do not know what they are doing.



Can't see or understand sarcasm when you see it, can you?
Ok. Fair enough. That is a pretty ridiculous claim.

But the claim that myself, sam, and others are making that they are underpriced to market value is not to call them stupid. I though that is what you were referring too.

jimmyraythomason
February 5, 2014, 11:53 AM
Hmmm.... 10 pages of "discourse" and yet the price and/or availability of ammo remains unaffected....curious.

jcwit
February 5, 2014, 12:02 PM
YUP, Jimmy, that is the larger conundrum. A problem with no solution.

In reality we are our own worst enemy.

Sam1911
February 5, 2014, 12:09 PM
So the general consensus among some of the members here is that the largest company in the world, the largest retail giant in the world, the largest retail giant in the history of mankind, the largest employer in the U.S. short of the government, has no idea what they are doing
Nope. I thine we've said over and over that they know EXACTLY what they're doing. They're holding their prices well below the market rate for long term strategic reasons that they feel will benefit WalMart. Keeping folks coming in the store, holding their bargain reputation, etc. good for WM. Not very good for the market or the shooting public. No good for the local gun shops. Not at all good for the morally outraged types who hate scalpers!

OK, its clearly obvious then that I'm the dumbest, stupidest, most ignorant sob that ever walked the face of the earth
This again? Well, ok. If that's how you feel, I'll believe you. But it makes me sad.

BTW, I'm not standing on the sidelines saving face, my stockpile will more than likely last my lifetime, 30 to 40 thousand rounds last a long time.
Again, that's neato, but wholly non-supportive of your opinions.

Sam1911
February 5, 2014, 12:12 PM
No. No solution. It doesn't NEED a solution. It is the market at work, it will sort itself out and find its own new level in time, and no meddling will make things better.

jcwit
February 5, 2014, 12:13 PM
From another forum that I frequent now and then.

Today the regional representative for Winchester stopped by the store. He visits every so often to inventory our guns, see what sells/doesn't sell, and to answer our questions. I asked him numerous questions about Winchester's 22 production numbers, predictions, and issues. Below are a few questions I asked and the answers I received:



Does Winchester produce 22 all year or only in short production runs?

Winchester produces 22 all year long.



Has Winchester begun producing more 22 ammo?

Winchester has increased production of 22 by 25% over the last year. They do not expect production to increase much above current levels in the near future.



Why isn't more 22 being produced and how come Winchester is not increasing their manufacturing capability?

A vast majority of the ammunition that Winchester produces, including almost all centerfire ammo, is produced on automated equipment. Once the machines are set up, it takes very little human input to produce centerfire ammunition. Rimfire ammunition produced by Winchester, especially 22, is not made on the same automated machinery. The 22 machines require a much higher amount of human interaction than the centerfire machines. Winchester is not interested in investing a lot of money in new automated machinery nor do they want to hire a bunch of people to run the rimfire machines. Winchester believes that the 22 shortage will last a long time, but is still a temporary bubble. When the crisis is over with, many people will have vast stores of ammunition and won't be buying more 22 for years to come.



When does Winchester predict that the 22 shortage will be over and everything will return to normal?

If Winchester's orders and demand went to pre-panic levels tomorrow, it would take OVER TWO YEARS for Winchester to catch up. At current demand, Winchester predicts that it will take significantly longer than two years to catch up considering that individuals are likely to panic after another shooting or election cycle. In the opinion of the rep, based upon his knowledge of production, it will be well OVER FIVE YEARS before 22 returns to normal. He also said that Winchester, along with other manufacturers, are going to be raising their prices in the near future. Winchester believes that price increases are necessary to not only cover increasing costs, but to also reduce demand.

Dreamliner787
February 5, 2014, 12:14 PM
Waiting for prices to go down as more supply is available, my worry is that for some ammo the current prices might be the new norm.

jcwit
February 5, 2014, 12:16 PM
Again, that's neato, but wholly non-supportive of your opinions.

Correct, but at the age of 70 + I have no time to act otherwise. Younger folks may have other options.

jcwit
February 5, 2014, 12:18 PM
No. No solution. It doesn't NEED a solution. It is the market at work, it will sort itself out and find its own new level in time, and no meddling will make things better.


So you say there is no solution? But then you imply that the market is in fact the solution.

jcwit
February 5, 2014, 12:20 PM
This again? Well, ok. If that's how you feel, I'll believe you. But it makes me sad.

Sam you need to read posts closer, post #229, my quote to the remark.

Can't see or understand sarcasm when you see it, can you?

huntsman
February 5, 2014, 12:26 PM
When people complain "It's not FAIR!" what they are saying is "We can't play at the new level of competition and we want to institute new rules for force the game to accommodate us!"

We're witnessing fundamental changes in this country and some are having a difficult time adjusting. The way forward is to adapt and I agree there's some whining and a whole lot of denial but that's what the spoiled do and IF the current gun community is anything it's spoiled IMHO.

Sam1911
February 5, 2014, 12:27 PM
Waiting for prices to go down as more supply is available, my worry is that for some ammo the current prices might be the new norm.

As I've said, though, is that so bad? There is a chance, however remote, that this IS the new norm. Do we complain if our next generation of shooters accepts that and keeps shooting? And if they're proved wrong and the prices fall, what a happy surprise for them!

Sam1911
February 5, 2014, 12:31 PM
From another forum that I frequent now and then.
Jcwit that's great info and just exactly what I've been saying. A temporary bubble that should be met with price increases to curb rampant demand, thus allowing the production to catch up faster and the shortages to ease. WalMart has fought to stifle that necessary correction.


So you say there is no solution? But then you imply that the market is in fact the solution.
I say we don't need to worry or try to find/impose a solution. The market will take care of it if left to the natural flow of cost vs demand. Which is what the Winchester guy just promised.

danez71
February 5, 2014, 12:34 PM
Ahhhh hAAAAAAA.....

By George, I think I've got it!

What will probably be more effective is that some here contact Walmart etc and tell them of all of the experience and knowledge you have with economics, markets, supply and demand etc.


Then explain to them they are hurting one of their markets by selling things too cheap and under cutting their competitors.


Yeaaaaa.... that'll go far.

Sam1911
February 5, 2014, 12:35 PM
Sam you need to read posts closer;)

Do I?

Sam1911
February 5, 2014, 12:42 PM
Danez, Walmart has no interest in any of that. They have their own strategy and it is good for them. (How many times does that need be explained?)

As evidenced by MANY decisions they make, they aren't concernd whether it is good for you or me or the LGS or competition or the market or. ... Having stripped bare shelves in the ammo aisle and 200 people a day stopping in to wander all the way back to the ammo department is JUST fine with them. Having someone buy ammo from them and sell it on GB for twice the price doesn't hurt them at all, either. Though it gives folks around here pretty bad heartburn.

jcwit
February 5, 2014, 12:48 PM
Jcwit that's great info and just exactly what I've been saying. A temporary bubble that should be met with price increases to curb rampant demand, thus allowing the production to catch up faster and the shortages to ease. WalMart has fought to stifle that necessary correction.

See, even I can post something that opposes my viewpoint. I will admit it does make some sense.

Regarding reading the posts closer, I think you missed the comment about sarcasm.

danez71
February 5, 2014, 12:48 PM
No. No solution. It doesn't NEED a solution. It is the market at work, it will sort itself out and find its own new level in time, and no meddling will make things better.



I say we don't need to worry or try to find/impose a solution. The market will take care of it if left to the natural flow of cost vs demand. Which is what the Winchester guy just promised.


Jcwit that's great info and just exactly what I've been saying. A temporary bubble that should be met with price increases to curb rampant demand, thus allowing the production to catch up faster and the shortages to ease. WalMart has fought to stifle that necessary correction.
.


Ok... so lets get this straight.

A) The market will sort itself out.
B) No meddling will make things better.

C) Walmart, by not meddling with the market to "curb rampant demand", is stifling a needed correction in a market that doesn't need meddling because the market will sort itself out.

:scrutiny:

Alllllll riiighty then.

Queen_of_Thunder
February 5, 2014, 12:51 PM
A lot of people here say if Walmart raises its prices to some number they call the "market price" that everything will be ok. Not going to happen. First off as I posted earlier the "market price" of an item varies from locale to locale. Using Mike1234567 as an example the market price for 22lr will be higher in his area then it is where I live with 10 Walmart SuperCenters, a Dicks, Big5's, Sports Authority, 2 Academy Sports, Gun Ranges and numerous gun shops where I can purchase ammo. So all of this talk about Walmart raising prices is just Bunk.

BTW for those of you who think Walmart should raise prices I have questions. What makes you think the other retail outlets would follow Walmarts actions. What makes you think that Walmart wants to go from a low cost seller to the high cost retailer. I'm quite sure the other providers would love to see Walmart raise its prices so they can siphon off their customers.

jcwit
February 5, 2014, 12:54 PM
Slightly off topic, but many here should have lived thru the gas shortages of the 70's.

Gas stations went out of business, RV manufactures folded, suppliers went out of business. Times where hard. I was lucky, worked in management, for at the time the largest RV manufacturer in the U.S., no worries.

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