Hit this poll


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medalguy
July 6, 2014, 10:36 AM
Vote here in a poll on gun control: http://www.tnj.com/technology/microsoft-start-menu-coming-back-to-windows

On the right side of the page in the small box.

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klcmschlesinger
July 6, 2014, 10:39 AM
done

bannockburn
July 6, 2014, 11:11 AM
NO vote (will stricter gun control laws stop the rise in school shootings in the U.S.?), over YES vote 54% to 46%

plexreticle
July 6, 2014, 11:39 AM
Another meaningless click-bait poll to drive web traffic and advertising revenue to a site I care nothing about?

No thanks.

wally
July 6, 2014, 01:13 PM
Another meaningless click-bait poll to drive web traffic and advertising revenue to a site I care nothing about

Perhaps, but if the anti's start wining these the media will be all over themselves promoting these "findings". When we win, they just quietly disappear.

Run Firefox with NoScript and an ad blocker, only let the polling script run.

plexreticle
July 6, 2014, 02:14 PM
Nobody is going to report anything from these polls. These absolutely have no purpose except to bait in web traffic.

Deltaboy
July 6, 2014, 02:22 PM
Voted

hardluk1
July 6, 2014, 05:09 PM
Voted

glove
July 6, 2014, 07:48 PM
Done deal:)

NoVA Shooter
July 7, 2014, 08:59 AM
Nobody is going to report anything from these polls. These absolutely have no purpose except to bait in web traffic.

While I agree that they are used to bait in web traffic (on that note, so is almost every article on the web), I disagree that nobody reports on these. Yes, a major news network is not going to, but I have seen countless time where local politicians or local anti-gun groups have used these polls in an attempt influence/manipulate the masses. Many people form opinions based on the spoon-fed drivel they get from disingenuous sources. Let’s not give them the opportunity.

Bexar
July 7, 2014, 09:11 AM
Nobody is going to report anything from these polls. These absolutely have no purpose except to bait in web traffic.
They'll report them if they go their way. And they may be used internally to see who their actual customer base is. CNN has become more conservative lately...not Meagan Kelly yet but I was "What did he just say?" when Cuomo started bashing Obama the other day. NBC posted something on the recent Chicago shooting tally and got page after page of pro-gun comments to every anti. Last year it would have been about 50-50.

So yes...these polls do have an affect. "Wow!!! we got a 60-40 response we didn't expect...Maybe we need to look at our market."

RetiredUSNChief
July 7, 2014, 09:21 AM
72% "No", with 361 votes in.

Statistically insignificant sampling.

Ranger Roberts
July 7, 2014, 09:44 AM
Voted.

19-3Ben
July 7, 2014, 09:50 AM
Voted. 73% no.

ol' scratch
July 7, 2014, 09:52 AM
What a load of garbage. There is no rise in school shootings in the US. Voted :mad:

Ryanxia
July 7, 2014, 11:57 AM
Voted.
74% our side.

KarenTOC
July 7, 2014, 02:12 PM
Now 75-25, 400 votes

Quiet
July 7, 2014, 08:22 PM
Will stricter gun control laws stop the rise of school shootings in the U.S.?
Yes 24%
No 76%
Total votes: 430

Lucky Derby
July 8, 2014, 03:22 AM
Done. We are currently at 77%

RevDerb
July 8, 2014, 02:34 PM
77% no. 475 votes

medalguy
July 8, 2014, 09:22 PM
I wholeheartedly agree this is not a meaningful poll, and certainly not a significant sample size. And, this is not a forum I would ever read, except I saw a synopsis somewhere about the coming changes in Windows 8.1 and I wanted to read that article. In doing so, I stumbled across the poll on the sidebar and voted.

And yes, any time a poll shows the public, ANY public, voting in favor of firearms restrictions, that just adds another stick to the fire the anti's keep stoking. I think we need to hit every single poll that we run across and make our position known. Who knows, we may not be in the majority on all these issues, but we can certainly yell at the top of our lungs and make it SOUND like we're the majority.

No one ever said any poll is an accurate measure of the entire country, but if a poll leans a certain way, those favoring that position will sure take advantage of that fact.

SigP229R
July 9, 2014, 07:29 AM
The No's have it 79 to 21!:)

kvtcomdo
July 11, 2014, 01:49 AM
Despite some forum skeptism.

I voted anyway.

BLB68
July 11, 2014, 02:39 AM
72% "No", with 361 votes in.

Statistically insignificant sampling.
Show your math. :D

RetiredUSNChief
July 11, 2014, 03:16 AM
Show your math. :D

OK, game on!

Current population of the United States: 317 million. % sampled at the time of my posting: 1.139 x 10^-4 %.

Current Black population (since this is a black professionals and small business news website) is 39 million. Assuming only blacks voted in this, % sampled at the time of my posting: 9.256 x 10^-4 %.

My home town population is about 68,000. Assuming people there voted in this, % sampled at the time of my posting: 0.531 %.

The population of the university I attended is now about 40,000. Assuming people there voted in this, % sampled at the time of my posting: 0.903 %.

;)

BLB68
July 11, 2014, 03:10 PM
Well, I was mostly posting that tongue in cheek, because a lot of people say that sample sizes are too small without actually checking. I've got my old statistics text book buried in storage, so I went to an online tool.

First, what are we sampling? We'll assume US Citizens over the age of 18. Potential voters, in other words. Sure, we don't have any way to know that only US Citizens over 18 voted in the poll, but that's really the least of the problems with that kind of poll. (IOW, I agree it's a frivolous poll. Even more frivolous than one on a network news site.)

Checking the census website, I find that the estimated US population for 2013 is 316,128,839, and that 23.3% are under 18. That gives an estimate of 242,470,819 US citizens over 18.

So, I'll plug that into a sample size calculator (http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm). This is just the first one I found online. I'm not vouching for it, but the math isn't really that hard, so I'll assume that if whoever made it can do basic programming, they can do basic statistics.

For a confidence level of 95 with a confidence interval of 5, I get a valid sample size of . . .

384!

Much lower than you'd think. Heck, much lower than I thought, and I knew it was bound to be a low number.

For a confidence level of 99 and a confidence interval of 5, the number is 666. (Yikes!)

For a confidence level of 99 and a confidence interval of 1, the number is 16,640. That's a pretty stiff level for this sort of thing, though. You won't find too many studies or opinion polls attempting this level of confidence, though even some online polls will easily net over 16k responses.

Of course, size is only one measure of whether a sample is valid.

So, sample size can be surprising.

The usefulness of these polls is another matter, but it never hurts to express your opinion on a subject in a non-confrontational format, either.

RetiredUSNChief
July 11, 2014, 03:35 PM
Well, I was mostly posting that tongue in cheek, because a lot of people say that sample sizes are too small without actually checking. I've got my old statistics text book buried in storage, so I went to an online tool.

First, what are we sampling? We'll assume US Citizens over the age of 18. Potential voters, in other words. Sure, we don't have any way to know that only US Citizens over 18 voted in the poll, but that's really the least of the problems with that kind of poll. (IOW, I agree it's a frivolous poll. Even more frivolous than one on a network news site.)

Checking the census website, I find that the estimated US population for 2013 is 316,128,839, and that 23.3% are under 18. That gives an estimate of 242,470,819 US citizens over 18.

So, I'll plug that into a sample size calculator (http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm). This is just the first one I found online. I'm not vouching for it, but the math isn't really that hard, so I'll assume that if whoever made it can do basic programming, they can do basic statistics.

For a confidence level of 95 with a confidence interval of 5, I get a valid sample size of . . .

384!

Much lower than you'd think. Heck, much lower than I thought, and I knew it was bound to be a low number.

For a confidence level of 99 and a confidence interval of 5, the number is 666. (Yikes!)

For a confidence level of 99 and a confidence interval of 1, the number is 16,640. That's a pretty stiff level for this sort of thing, though. You won't find too many studies or opinion polls attempting this level of confidence, though even some online polls will easily net over 16k responses.

Of course, size is only one measure of whether a sample is valid.

So, sample size can be surprising.

The usefulness of these polls is another matter, but it never hurts to express your opinion on a subject in a non-confrontational format, either.

I know it was tongue in cheek, and I enjoyed posting my answer because of that!

:)

As for confidence levels and such...polls are heavily influenced/biased by a lot of factors, and not always maliciously so. (Maliscious only comes into play when people are playing around with things in order to get results which support a particular conclusion.)

For example, this string was started out to get people to hit the poll. The poll is posted on a website for "Black Professionals and Small Business News". This website will have a certain demographic of people who frequent it, whatever that may be, and the numbers of people who frequent it determine how widely known it is. How thewe people vote is based on the demographics of the people who frequent (and the few who visit) the site.

We all know that if you were to ask the same question on a well known, very conservative media website you'll get a very different number of people who will tend to vote more heavily towards the conservative beliefs on the matter.

By the same token, we all know that if you were to ask the same question on a well known, very liberal media website, the demographics there will very likely skew it the opposite direction.


By posting this string calling out for people here, who are almost all very much against gun control, to answer the poll, what we've done is skewed the demographic results of this poll...it's no longer statistically representative of the demographics of the people who normally frequent this website.

"Random" samples of small numbers of large populations MAY be statistically significant. But again, what populations and on what subject? Ask 500 people from the Big Apple questions on gun control, religion, sex, politics, etc, and then ask another 500 random people out of an equal sized population of rural people the same questions. See what you get.


"Statistically significant" can mean a lot of things to different people. But at its heart, what it really means is that the sampling is large enough to be truely representative of the characteristics of the population as a whole.

If said population was homogenous, then a sampling of a specific number of any of the people will give you a "statistically significant" result. But since populations are rarely, if ever, homogenous this isn't always true.

;)

Birdman253
July 11, 2014, 09:47 PM
Voted.

Quick Poll
Will stricter gun control laws stop the rise of school shootings in the U.S.?
Yes
20%
No
80%
Total votes: 597
Older polls

BLB68
July 11, 2014, 11:32 PM
Agreed, Chief. I'd say most internet polls are fairly useless.

And let's not forget the old "lies, damned lies and statistics." :D

RetiredUSNChief
July 12, 2014, 12:14 AM
“Opinion polls measure the public's satisfaction with it's ignorance.”

;)

medalguy
July 14, 2014, 09:25 PM
^^^ Now that's a statement that rings true!!

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