N Korea threatens US with first strike (AGAIN!)


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Airwolf
February 6, 2003, 03:01 AM
N Korea threatens US with first strike

Pyongyang asserts right to pre-emptive attack as tensions rise over American build-up

Jonathan Watts in Pyongyang
Thursday February 6, 2003
The Guardian

North Korea is entitled to launch a pre-emptive strike against the US rather than wait until the American military have finished with Iraq, the North's foreign ministry told the Guardian yesterday. Warning that the current nuclear crisis is worse than that in 1994, when the peninsula stood on the brink of oblivion, a ministry spokesman called on Britain to use its influence with Washington to avert war.

"The United States says that after Iraq, we are next", said the deputy director Ri Pyong-gap, "but we have our own countermeasures. Pre-emptive attacks are not the exclusive right of the US."

His comments came on a day when tension was apparent in Pyongyang, with an air-raid drill that cleared the city's streets and the North's announcement that it has begun full-scale operations at the Yongbyon nuclear plant, the suspected site of weapons-grade plutonium production.

Since reopening the plant in December, the North has kicked out international inspectors and withdrawn from the global treaty to stop the spread of nuclear weapons.

Anxiety in North Korea has been rising since Washington announced plans in the past week to beef up its military strength in the area. Additional bombers will be sent to the region, along with 2,000 extra troops who will serve alongside the 17,000 already stationed on the North-South border. USS Carl Vinson may also be deployed.

According to Pyongyang, the USS Kitty Hawk has already taken up strike position in waters off the peninsula. The US says that reinforcements are needed to warn Pyongyang that it should not try to take advantage of Washington's focus on Iraq.

North Korean officials fear the extra forces are the start of the build-up for a full-scale confrontation - a dangerous assumption that could push the peninsula over the edge.

During the last crisis, when the Pentagon planned a surgical strike on the Yongbyon nuclear plant, American generals were convinced that the North would rather launch a surprise attack than wait for a US military build-up.

Mr Ri said today's stand-off is more dangerous: "The present situation can be called graver than it was in 1993. It will be touch and go."

The crisis erupted in October when a US envoy to Pyongyang confronted the regime with suspicions that North Korea was engaged in a uranium enrichment programme, in violation of the 1994 agreement which ended the last crisis.

To punish the North, the US cut off supplies of 500,000 tonnes a year of heavy fuel oil, a severe blow to a nation that is desperately short of energy. The north of the country is worst hit but power shortages are apparent even in the capital, where temperatures have fallen as low as -21C recently.

The North claims that the Yongbyon nuclear plant is being used for peaceful purposes. "The US stopped our oil so our country faces a critical shortage of electricity," Mr Ri said. "Our nuclear activities will be confined only to producing electricity."

Both sides say they are committed to finding a diplomatic solution but remain far apart in their demands. Pyongyang wants a non-aggression treaty but Washington has said it will not reward blackmail and has hinted only at a written guarantee of the North's security.

Concern about the crisis has prompted South Korea and Japan to pressure the US to take a softer line. In a sign that this may be working, the US deputy secretary of state, Richard Armitage said for the first time yesterday that the US would definitely hold direct talks with the North. "It is just a question of when we do it and how," he told the Senate.

A breakthrough stills looks distant. The European Union plans to send a high-level delegation to North Korea later this month to mediate, but similar envoys from Russia and South Korea achieved little because the North insists that the issue is a bilateral matter with the US.

The North has shown a willingness to open up to other na tions. In an important development, a new road link to South Korea was used for the first time yesterday.

But the North know that the nuclear issue stands in the way of progress, prompting a request that Britain intercede. "The US must sign a non-aggression treaty," Mr Li said.

"I hope that Britain can help to persuade them to do so."

· Japan may deploy two destroyers near North Korea to detect missile launches, the Kyodo news agency reported on yesterday. Quoting unspecified government sources, it said Tokyo believes it increasingly likely that ballistic missiles will be test-fired as part of the North's brinkmanship.

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jmbg29
February 6, 2003, 03:10 AM
And their first will be their last.

standingbear
February 6, 2003, 06:33 AM
commies over in n.korea are just a little fish in a big pond strutting their stuff.their first strike would be followed by "payback" an alot of it.

Coronach
February 6, 2003, 11:20 AM
Gentlemen:

Let us not forget the last time we got into a little dust-up over that rugged peninsula. There is a certain large neighbor of Pyongyang that views western encroachments into its sphere of influence with a very jaundiced eye.

This is not so simple a matter as 'bye bye commieland.' :rolleyes:

Mike

standingbear
February 6, 2003, 12:22 PM
ahhhhh.the neighboring bear.all neighboring countries should be concerned about the nukes n.korea has.by the way,whats left after everyone that gets the idea that they too now "need" nukes -gets one?then everyone gets to set around waiting for the other guy to flinch.it has to stop.i dont know the true intentions for wanting a nuke over there,but,why now?

PATH
February 6, 2003, 12:54 PM
China likes money. China likes trade. A war by North Korea scares all the wealth away. China says stop and North Korea says no. It takes but a week for Kim Jong Il to go!

Where is the interest for the Chinese? Maybe they want a war with us? WW III just a few airstrikes away? Stay tuned ladies and gentlemen.

Hkmp5sd
February 6, 2003, 01:02 PM
There is a certain large neighbor of Pyongyang that views western encroachments

Perhaps we should borrow a rule from their playbook. Inform China that any attack by North Korea on South Korea or the United States will be viewed as an act of war BY CHINA. Let China to straighten them out.

Airwolf
February 6, 2003, 01:04 PM
The DPRK has it's back to the wall. The end of “Dynastic Communism” is in sight and it’s pretty well left the country a basket case. Instead of providing for the people the government has drained the country for the sole benefit of building up the military and keeping those privileged few in power comfortable while the rest of the population suffers and starves to death.

Let’s face it, Kim Jong-Il isn’t playing with a full deck. Something like Michael Jackson living inside a protected, surrealistic bubble.

Saddam Hussein is worrisome but somewhat predictable. He came to power by getting his hands dirty, a street thug type. Kim Jong-Il didn’t. He was groomed from birth to lead and as such doesn’t have a true frame of reference as to North Korea’s place in the world. Is he crazy enough to take the country with him when it’s clear that the party is over? I think he is.

Remember, even the Soviet Union played with the idea of the a Doomsday Device (almost exactly like the “Dr. Strangelove” concept except it was to be a ship, not bombs buried on an island). Good old Nikita Sergeievich was properly appalled by the idea and put a stop to the plan. I think Russia was more important to him than Communism. The Rodina comes first, in much the same way we here see America above the politics of Democrat vs. Republican.

Kruschev could see a world beyond Communism but not one where Russia didn’t exist. Can Kim Jong-Il see something similar? I doubt it.

North Korea’s bombastic rhetoric could be a prelude to a “suicide by cop” scenario played out on a grand scale.

jmbg29
February 6, 2003, 01:44 PM
Red Chinese evaporate the same way N.Koreans do when the "Big Sylvania Blue-Dot"tm in the sky goes off.

I'm with Hkmp5sd on this one.


Lisa: "Nuke the Whales?!?"

Nelson: "Gotta nuke sumthin'."

Lisa: "Touche!":rolleyes: :D ;)

Leatherneck
February 6, 2003, 04:08 PM
Oh, Man, I don't need this right now! I just put my son-in-law on a plane at BWI headed over to Seoul for a year flying Blackhawks. NK is scary, but China is moreso. 'Course we gots a different President now.

TC
TFL Survivor

Coronach
February 6, 2003, 10:56 PM
My main point is that the North Korean issue is not as simple as USA v. North Korea. It is USA v. North Korea with China as a very large loose cannon rolling around on deck. China is obviously as leery of Pyongyang as we are- witness the fact that China has no interest in supplying them with any nukes, lest the nutjob decide to lob a few their way. However, China is EVER leery of western influence increasing in what they perceive as "their" slice of the Pacific Rim. This makes defusing this particular powderkeg a difficult proposition. It will make Iraq look like a cake-walk.

Mike

CZ-75
February 6, 2003, 11:04 PM
Does anyone think China will step in to stop retaliation after a N. Korean first strike?

I doubt it.

N. Korea can only expect Chinese support so long as they don't make an aggressive move, particularly not at actual US territory.

SteelyDan
February 7, 2003, 12:30 AM
North Korea scares me more than it apparently scares the administration. At least with Saddam, he doesn't have nukes (we think), and he's kind of predictable in a thuggish, power-crazed kind of way. Kim Jong strikes me as much more unpredictable, and he's already got nukes. And making more. And not exactly shy about it. And threatening first strikes. And by all accounts a possibly in-bred alcoholic. This is not comforting.

If he does go off the deep end and start something, will China be there to protect him? Short answer: "No." Now, if we start some preemptive thing, it's a bit more dicey, but I still can't imagine China would get involved militarily, so long as our objective was to remove an immediate threat and not to establish a 51st state on its border. The problem, of course, is that even a preemptive strike may well trigger a whole lot more deaths than anyone is anticipating in Iraq.

This worries me.

4570Rick
February 7, 2003, 04:49 AM
What would S. Korea look like as an island? :what:

Bahadur
February 7, 2003, 08:13 AM
Airwolf:

I am a self-declared "old Korea hand," and I must say that your analysis of Noth Korea was extremely insightful.

However, I do think that perhaps you underplay the role of self-preservation in your thoughts. Because Hitler was such a looming figure of the early- to mid-20th Century, we tend to see many dictators as being given to the ideas of self-imolating Götterdamerung in the Hitlerite fashion.

But Hitler was a "visionary," however twisted. I don't see Saddam Hussein and Kim Jong-Il as visionaries. Provided that we leave an avenue out for personal survival, no matter how small, we can discourage self-immolation, provided, of course, that we stare these weaker powers down in the game of chicken.

I think, despite the rhetoric, what will affect the North Korean regime is not our own rhetoric but our demonstrable actions vis-a-vis Iraq. How that turns out will have the most relevant bearing on how WE and THEY will act in the aftermath.

Edward429451
February 7, 2003, 09:08 AM
I'm sure we're equipped to blow NK off the map. but where's that going to leave us? Forces in Iraq, NK, somewhere around (?) China and Afganistan, sounds like there'll be not alot of forces still in the U.S. Thats when we'd be ripe for homeland trouble. Guess they'd be bringing in UN forces here then to keep the peace. Complete with martial law, abuses and destruction.:(

It doesnt bode well even if we do well.

Bahadur
February 7, 2003, 12:31 PM
I'm sure we're equipped to blow NK off the map. but where's that going to leave us? Forces in Iraq, NK, somewhere around (?) China and Afganistan, sounds like there'll be not alot of forces still in the U.S. Thats when we'd be ripe for homeland trouble.We can't be sure, but I do not think that post-Saddam Hussein Iraq will require such a large American military presence.

North Korea will NOT require any American presence. If the North Korean regime implodes or is toppled, South Korea takes the responsibility for it (as West Germany did with East Germany).

Afghanistan is tricky because it never really had a strong tradition of a single nation-state. This is a potential problem.

Forces near China? That's what we have Taiwan and the 7th Fleet for! :)

SDC
February 7, 2003, 12:38 PM
These sneaky sh*ts aren't THAT crazy; maybe they're just looking at what hapened to Japan and Germany, and thinking "Hmm, if we LOSE a war, maybe we'll all get Barcaloungers, 21" TV's, and all the McDonald's we can eat, instead of being forced to march in those godforsaken uniforms".

MitchSchaft
February 7, 2003, 04:10 PM
where is the original link to this? I've got somebody who doesn't believe it.

MitchSchaft
February 7, 2003, 04:11 PM
I found it. http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,889600,00.html

MitchSchaft
February 7, 2003, 04:13 PM
He still doesn't believe it cause he's never heard of the Guardian. He hasn't heard anything about it on CNN.

Agent Z
February 7, 2003, 05:02 PM
I'm not sure if my thinking will make sense. This however the following just a mere observation from our past......

Seems to me that in the beginning of WWII as we were finally envolved in the European campaign that we got back doored by The Japanese. Has anyone seem the similarity in today's situation? Thinking back then I see Japan was a greater threat than Hitler. Though todays scenerio is different I tend to agree with everyones thinking here. N. Korea is more of threat and demands (like babies) the need for more immediate attention.

Saddam isn't going anywhere. He's boxed in so to speak. If he is producing such weapons we can take care of hime latter. One must admit he has a great poker face with that cigar crammed in his mouth. (I dream of cramming it elsewhere---Bill Clinton)

However I'd like to see the look on Kin Jongs face if we transfered all (or most) of all the troops we have on Saddams doorstep over to the Korean theater. Then we send Kim a message (fed-ex style) that reads something like "whats all this talk about about your making a first strike?" and include a case of John Wayne toilet paper. (don't take no S*&t off nobody).

I'm sure americans would be more willing to spend money on helping N.K. than to see its lower class innocents obliterated due to ones mans stupidity.

Wanna talk............we're willing to listen. Drop the saber rattling hosh posh, grow up and be a part of an ever increasing world of nations filled with fruits and nuts.

:banghead:

MitchSchaft
February 7, 2003, 05:09 PM
Seems to me that in the beginning of WWII as we were finally envolved in the European campaign that we got back doored by The Japanese.

We weren't involved in WWII until Japan hit us, no?:uhoh:

Agent Z
February 7, 2003, 07:53 PM
Your probably right Mr. Mitch. My apologies if I erred in a small way. I'm not a historical brain child for sure. But I think my other point was pretty appropriate for sure. ;)

I should do more reading on history before I open my big fat mouth so I can back up what I say. Duh.:scrutiny:

Lord Grey Boots
February 7, 2003, 08:04 PM
Actually, the US doesn't need to transfer troops to south Korea.

South Korea already has 650K troops right there, and there are 37K US troops there, plus those in Japan etc...

Lots of handy US friendly forces already in place, so no need to build up like for Iraq.

Not to mention the carrier group, and all those submarines....


I expect China and Russia are looking at Kim Il Sung and saying "You moron!, don't DO that...".

riverdog
February 7, 2003, 08:33 PM
Kim Jong Il is attempting to externalize his internal problems and he's doing a very good job of it. Starting the reactor was sure to get lots of foreign attention, but the rhetoric is aimed primarily at his own people to justify and rationalize the hardships they've endured his entire life. While he lives like French royaly, his people starve ... but he isn't French and he's much better at controlling his problems than Louis.

What Kim wants is another handout from the West and he's playing the nuclear card to get it. President Bush meantime is just feeding out the rope, biding his time and not acting too concerned. You can be sure that there is a lot going on with Russia and PRC.

Between South Korea and the U.S. Forces there is a lot of firepower in the area now. Kitty Hawk has apparently been ordered to the Gulf, but Vinson is moving to WestPac and Nimitz has completed work-ups on the West Coast. What we need now is two carrier battle groups in the Sea of Japan and then we can bring back Exercise Team Spirit. This is low level brinksmanship and Kim is going to lose.

jmbg29
February 7, 2003, 09:35 PM
I took part in "Team Spirit" a couple of times in the early 80s.

Anybody care to guess when "Exercise Team Spirit" was abandoned?:scrutiny:

TexasVet
February 8, 2003, 12:35 AM
He still doesn't believe it cause he's never heard of the Guardian. He hasn't heard anything about it on CNN.

----------------------------------------------------

Whew, I hope you never have to depend on any KNOWLEDGE from this person for anything important!:what:

MitchSchaft
February 8, 2003, 01:34 AM
He's my brother :uhoh:

Lord Grey Boots
February 8, 2003, 03:35 AM
Considering the Guardian dates back to 1855, your brother needs to do his homework.

-------------------------------
Britain's Regional Press - A Brief History


Britain's press can trace its history back more than 300 years, to the time of William of Orange. Berrow's Worcester Journal, which started life as the Worcester Postman in 1690 and was published regularly from 1709, is believed to be the oldest surviving English newspaper.
William Caxton had introduced the first English printing press in 1476 and, by the early 16th century, the first 'news papers' were seen in Britain. They were, however, slow to evolve, with the largely illiterate population relying on town criers for news.

Between 1640 and the Restoration, around 30,000 'news letters' and 'news papers' were printed, many of which can be seen today in the British Museum.

The first regular English daily newspaper, the Daily Courant, was launched with the reign of Queen Anne in 1702.


1476 William Caxton sets up the first English printing press in Westminster.
1549 First known English newsletter: Requests of the Devonshyre and Cornyshe rebelles.
1621 First titled newspaper, Corante, published in London.
1649 Cromwell suppressed all newsbooks on the eve of Charles I's execution.
1690 Worcester Postman launched. (In 1709 it starts regular publication as Berrow's Worcester Journal, considered to be the oldest surviving English newspaper).
1702 Launch of the first regular daily newspaper: The Daily Courant.
1709 First Copyright Act; Berrow's Worcester Journal, considered the oldest surviving English newspaper, started regular publication.
1712 First Stamp Act; advertisement, paper and stamp duties condemned as taxes on knowledge. Stamford Mercury believed to have been launched.
1718 Leeds Mercury started (later merged into Yorkshire Post).
1737 Belfast News Letter founded (world's oldest surviving daily newspaper).
1748 Aberdeen Journal began (Scotland's oldest newspaper - now the Press & Journal).
1772 Hampshire Chronicle launched, Hampshire's oldest paper.
1788 Daily Universal Register (est. 1785) became The Times.
1791 The Observer launched.
1835 Libel Act; truth allowed as defence for first time in Britain.
1836 The Newspaper Society founded.
1844 The Southport Visiter first published.
1848 The first issue of the Brechin Advertiser was published on Tuesday 3 October 1848.
1853 Ormskirk Advertiser and Birkenhead News first published.
1855 Stamp duty abolished. Daily Telegraph started as first penny national. Manchester Guardian, The Scotsman and Liverpool Post became daily. Shields Gazette is the first of 17 regional evenings founded this year.
1868 Press Association set up as a national news agency.
1889 First Official Secrets Act
1905 Harmsworth (then Northcliffe) bought The Observer
1906 Newspaper Proprietors Association founded for national dailies.
1907 National Union of Journalists founded as a wage-earners union.
1915 Rothermere launched Sunday Pictorial (later Sunday Mirror).
1922 Death of Northcliffe. Control of Associated Newspapers passed to Rothermere.
1928 Northcliffe Newspapers set up as a subsidiary of Associated Newspapers. Provincial Newspapers set up as a subsidiary of United Newspapers.
1931 Audit Bureau of Circulations formed.
1936 Britain's first colour advertisement appears (in Glasgow's Daily Record).
1944 Iliffe took over BPM Holdings (including Birmingham Post).
1946 Guild of British Newspaper Editors formed (now the Society of Editors).
1953 General Council of the Press established.
1955 Month-long national press strike. Daily Record acquired by Mirror Group.
1959 Manchester Guardian becomes The Guardian. Six-week regional press printing strike.
1960s Photocomposition and web-offset printing progressively introduced.
1964 The Sun launched, replacing Daily Herald. Death of Beaverbrook. General Council of the Press reformed as the Press Council.
1969 Murdoch's News International acquired The Sun and News of the World.
1976 Nottingham Evening Post is Britain's first newspaper to start direct input by journalists.
1978 The Times and The Sunday Times ceased publication for 11 months.
1980 Association of Free Newspaper founded (folded 1991). Regional Newspaper Advertising Bureau formed.
1981 News International acquired The Times and the Sunday Times.
1983 Industrial dispute at Eddie Shah's Messenger group plant at Warrington.
1984 Mirror Group sold by Reed to Maxwell (Pergamon). (Birmingham) Daily News launched as a free.
1986 News International moved titles to a new plant at Wapping. Eddie Shah launched Today, first colour national daily launched. The Independent launched.
1987 News International took over Today.
1988 RNAB folded. Newspaper Society launched PressAd as its commercial arm. Thomson launched Scotland on Sunday and Sunday Life.
1989 Last Fleet Street paper produced by Sunday Express.
1990 First Calcutt report on Privacy and Related Matters. Launch of The European (by Maxwell) and Independent on Sunday.
1991 Press Complaints Commission replaced the Press Council. AFN folded. Death of Robert Maxwell (November). Management buy-out of Birmingham Post and sister titles. Midland Independent Newspapers established.
1992 Management buy-out by Caledonian Newspapers of Lonrho's Glasgow titles, The Herald and Evening Times.
1993 Guardian Media Group bought The Observer. UK News set up by Northcliffe and Westminster Press as rival news agency to the Press Association. Second Calcutt report into self-regulation of the press.
1994 Northcliffe Newspapers bought Nottingham Evening Post for £93m. News International price-cutting sparked off new national cover-price war.
1995 Lord Wakeham succeeded Lord McGregor as chairman of the PCC. Privacy white paper rejected statutory press controls. Most of Thomson's regional titles sold to Trinity. Newsquest formed out of a Reed MBO. Murdoch closes Today (November).
1996 A year of buyouts, mergers and restructuring in the regional press. Regionals win the battle over cross-media ownership (Broadcasting Act). Newspaper Society launches NS Marketing, replacing PressAd.
1997 Midland Independent Newspapers is bought by Mirror Group for £297 million. Human Rights and Data Protection bills are introduced.
1998 Fourth largest regional press publisher, United Provincial Newspapers, is sold in two deals: UPN Yorkshire and Lancashire newspapers sold to Regional Independent Media for £360m and United Southern Publications sold to Southnews for £47.5m. Southern Newspapers changes its name to Newscom, following acquisitions in Wales and the West (including UPN Wales in 1996). Death of Lord Rothermere. Chairmanship of Associated Newspapers passes to his son Jonathan Harmsworth. Death of David English, editor-in-chief of Daily Mail and chairman of the editors' code committee.
1999 Trinity merges with Mirror Group Newspapers in a deal worth £1.3 billion. Newsquest is bought by US publisher Gannett for £904 million. Portsmouth & Sunderland Newspapers is bought by Johnston Press for £266m. Major regional press groups launch electronic media alliances (eg, This is Britain, Fish4 sites.) Freedom of Information bill introduced. Associated launches London's free commuter daily, Metro.
2000 Newscom is sold to Newsquest Media Group for £444m, Adscene titles are sold to Southnews (£52m)and Northcliffe Newspapers, Belfast Telegraph Newspapers are sold by Trinity Mirror to Independent News & Media for £300m, Bristol United Press is sold to Northcliffe Newspapers Group, and Southnews is sold to Trinity Mirror for £285m. Daily Express and Daily Star are sold by Lord Hollick's United News & Media to Richard Desmond's Northern & Shell, publisher of OK and soft-porn titles. Launch of Scottish business daily Business a.m. and more Metro daily frees. Newspaper Society launches internet artwork delivery system AdFast. Communications white paper published.
2001 RIM buys six Galloway and Stornaway Gazette titles, Newsquest buys Dimbleby Newspaper Group and Johnston Press buys four titles from Morton Media Group. UK Publishing Media formed. Sunday Business changes name to The Business and publishes on Sunday and Monday.
2002 Johnston Press acquires Regional Independent Media's 53 regional newspaper titles in a £560 million deal. Northcliffe Newspapers Group Ltd acquires Hill Bros (Leek) Ltd. Queen attends Newspaper Society annual lunch. New PCC chairman, Christopher Meyer, announced. Draft Communications Bill published. The Sun and Mirror engage in a price war.

Lord Grey Boots
February 8, 2003, 03:39 AM
My apologies for taking this thread a hard left off topic.


Getting it back on topic.....


It would be a shame if some CIA agents accidently lit a cigarette near some North Korean Army fuel depots.

I really think ALL the NK army can do right now is use their artillery. A mass airstrike on their artillery sites would probably defang them.

riverdog
February 8, 2003, 08:18 AM
A mass airstrike on their artillery sites would probably defang them. A pre-emptive strike on artillery won't work, they're really dug in and there's just too many of them. Seoul would still take a major hit from the incoming rounds, but it would be the U.S.' fault for having restarted the open hostilities.

Bahadur
February 8, 2003, 10:21 AM
SDC:
These sneaky sh*ts aren't THAT crazy; maybe they're just looking at what hapened to Japan and Germany, and thinking "Hmm, if we LOSE a war, maybe we'll all get Barcaloungers, 21" TV's, and all the McDonald's we can eat, instead of being forced to march in those godforsaken uniforms".If so, the North Korean regime doesn't understand history very well, as it will be purged before any such development takes place.

Agent Z:
N. Korea is more of threat and demands (like babies) the need for more immediate attention.

Saddam isn't going anywhere. He's boxed in so to speak. If he is producing such weapons we can take care of hime latter. One must admit he has a great poker face with that cigar crammed in his mouth. (I dream of cramming it elsewhere---Bill Clinton)On the contrary, it is North Korea that is boxed in. Unlike Iraq which has substantial capacity to generate hard currency through petroleum sales, North Korea has no such capacity. North Korea, while dangerous, is not "lethal" to its neighbors to the extent that it is opportunistic rather than domineering.

The situation with Iraq is more "fluid" because of the neighboring countries and their political instability.

I suspect that North Korea's tune will change rather abruptly when the US is victorious in Iraq, and is able to re-allocate military resources to the Pacific.

Lord Grey Boots:
South Korea already has 650K troops right there, and there are 37K US troops there, plus those in Japan etc...First of all, the JSDF will not be used offensively, so for all intents and purposes, it is useless to us.

As for the ROK forces, they are generally well-trained and capable, but are mostly geared toward defense (static defense at that) rather than a mobile offense. ROK ability to operate offensively is extremely limited (though it has increased relatively greatly of late).

riverdog:
A pre-emptive strike on artillery won't work, they're really dug in and there's just too many of them. Seoul would still take a major hit from the incoming rounds, but it would be the U.S.' fault for having restarted the open hostilities.I am of the opinion that the capability of the North Korean artillery forces is substantially weaker than credited in the popular media. Its survivability will be very limited.

Will Seoul be safe? Mostly likely not. But the North Koreans are very well aware that their so-called "Sea of Fire" from arty, rocket and battlefield missile forces is a one-shot affair. They are unlikely to commit that suicide.
Kim Il Sung is attempting to externalize his internal problems and he's doing a very good job of it.Kim Jong-Il, you mean? The elder Kim is dead.

jmbg29
February 8, 2003, 12:23 PM
First of all, the JSDF will not be used offensively, so for all intents and purposes, it is useless to us.I think he meant American forces stationed in Japan.

riverdog
February 8, 2003, 05:55 PM
Kim Jong-Il, you mean? The elder Kim is dead. Thanks, editted.

riverdog
February 8, 2003, 06:04 PM
While we're on the subject of the two Kims, check out Kim's Fan Club website at http://www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/Parliament/8058/
It's a hoot ... not really.

jmbg29
February 8, 2003, 10:28 PM
http://www.uncertaintypark.com/Active%20Articles/nkorea_web_0302.htmFunny as hell!:evil: :evil: :evil:

I literally blew soda out of my nose while reading "Bush Checklist". I'm dyin' over here.:D :D

Baba Louie
February 8, 2003, 10:43 PM
Since old Kim decided to go back on the agreement, maybe GWB could offer South Korea a chance to do some Underground Nuke testing, along the DMZ to sorta see if any of our old devices still work.

"Just measuring a little energy Kim, don't worry, used to do it in the Nevada desert all the time."

Kinda a Pakistan/India thing.

It's fun to think about.

Just embargo their shipments at sea to keep nukes either outa their or to keep any they build in there.

Now if Kim and Saddam were to team up... now, there's an issue that needs resolving right now. That'd be interesting to see who chooses what side/team they wanta play on. Sprinkle in some religion based fundamentalist terriers for spice. Who's to benefit from the disruption in the business world? Oil from mid-east, China Trade, etc.

Things like that are fun to think about. Like playing chess.

First strike, huh George?

First strike, huh Kim?

Adios

Destructo6
February 8, 2003, 11:52 PM
Team Spirit ended not long before I went to Okinawa in 1994, so I was told. That year, because N. Korea was beating the war drums, we lost out on Cobra Gold, too.

jmbg29
February 9, 2003, 02:05 AM
Team Spirit ended not long before I went to Okinawa in 1994, so I was told. That year, because N. Korea was beating the war drums, we lost out on Cobra Gold, too.No more calls please. We have a winner!


Klinton the Kommie, rats us out again. Who'd a thunk it? :fire: :fire: :fire:

Airwolf
February 9, 2003, 03:19 AM
More from our friends in the DPRK...

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/World/2003/02/06/21127-ap.html

North Korea warns of nuclear disasters

U.S. prepared for contingencies

SEOUL (AP) - North Korea warned Friday that reported U.S. moves to dispatch reinforcements around the Korean peninsula could lead to "horrible nuclear disasters" while Washington said it was preparing for any contingencies.

For days, North Korea has appeared to be creating an atmosphere of crisis, accusing the United States of deploying reinforcements in the region to invade the impoverished country. U.S. officials say any discussions of troop movements would be meant to deter North Korea, not to foreshadow an invasion.

Still, North Korea fears that Washington will become more aggressive toward the communist country if the U.S. military conducts a successful war in Iraq.
"If the U.S. moves to bolster aggression troops are unchecked, the whole land of Korea will be reduced to ashes and the Koreans will not escape horrible nuclear disasters," North Korea's official news agency, KCNA, said Friday.

U.S. President George W. Bush said he called Chinese President Jiang Zemin Friday morning and "reminded him that we have a joint responsibility to uphold the goal ... of a nuclear weapons-free (Korean) peninsula."
Bush repeated that he believed the situation on Korea can still be resolved peacefully but notably ratcheted up the U.S. position by raising the suggestion of the use of a military strike.

"We will continue to work diplomatically to make it very clear to Kim Jong Il that should he expect any kind of aid and help for his people that he must comply with the world's demands that he not develop a nuclear weapon," Bush said.

However, he added. "All options are on the table of course."

By citing "all options," Bush was reminding North Korea that the United States has not ruled out the use of military force.

U.S. officials have spoken before about their ability to respond to any potential hostile action by North Korea, in part to dispel any hopes Pyongyang may have about taking advantage of Bush's focus on Iraq.

North Korea's statement Friday was issued by the Committee for Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland, a government agency in charge of relations with South Korea.

In line with the North's long-standing strategy to drive a wedge between the United States and ally South Korea, the statement urged the South Koreans to frustrate alleged U.S. plans for a military buildup. It indicated that if war breaks out, the South would not escape devastation either.

"The grave situation where there is the real danger of a new war created by the U.S. imperialists on the Korean peninsula goes to more clearly prove that there exists on the peninsula only confrontation between the Korean nation and the United States," it said.

Concern about North Korea's nuclear program has grown after the country announced earlier this week that it was normalizing operations at its main nuclear facility north of Pyongyang, triggering fears it was about to produce materials of weapons.

North Korean soldiers are holding rallies at their bases, vowing to wage "a life-and-death battle" against the U.S. "imperialists," KCNA said Friday.

The report repeated Pyongyang's position that the nuclear issue can be resolved only through direct negotiations with the United States. It rejected a multilateral approach to the dispute.

North Korea announced in December it would reactivate its nuclear facilities, frozen since 1994, to generate badly needed electricity.

U.S. officials say the amount of electricity that can be generated by the North's facilities is negligible and that the equipment could used to produce nuclear weapons.
The North froze its nuclear facilities in a 1994 energy deal with the United States, but the agreement unravelled after U.S. officials said in October that North Korea had admitted embarking on a second, clandestine nuclear program.

Washington and its allies suspended oil shipments as punishment. The North then took steps to restart the nuclear facilities, expelled UN monitors and withdrew from a global nuclear arms control treaty.

The UN International Atomic Energy Agency's 35-country board of governors will meet next Wednesday to discuss the standoff and is almost certain to send the dispute to the UN Security Council, a move that could lead to economic sanctions against Pyongyang.

Also Friday, in an interview with reporters travelling with him in Europe, U.S. Defence Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said North Korea's decision to expel UN nuclear inspectors and restart its mothballed nuclear reactor is an example of how international safeguards "seem not to be working now" to prevent nuclear materials and knowhow from spreading to dangerous governments and terrorists.

Edward429451
February 9, 2003, 08:54 AM
You know, I've noticed that as the news comes over the wire, it gets posted on THR really fast with realistic commentary not far behind. I almost dont even watch the news anymore. I just log in here. You guys are making Dan Rathers ratings go down I bet.:neener: :D

Bahadur
February 10, 2003, 11:30 AM
You know, I've noticed that as the news comes over the wire, it gets posted on THR really fast with realistic commentary not far behind. I almost dont even watch the news anymore. I just log in here. You guys are making Dan Rathers ratings go down I bet.Well, that's because many THRers are better educated and more experienced in the specific situations than Dan Rather ever will be.

That's why I continue to participate in these forums even when I am too busy to eat. I consider myself to be fairly well-educated, having been schooled at some of the finest unversities in the world. Yet, I learn something new on these forums everyday. Vigorous debates with others on the forums sharpen my own arguments and increase my knowledge.

Of course it's better than TV where a 30 second time frame is about the maximum attention one gets on a specific topic!

Bahadur
February 10, 2003, 11:36 AM
quote:
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Team Spirit ended not long before I went to Okinawa in 1994, so I was told. That year, because N. Korea was beating the war drums, we lost out on Cobra Gold, too.
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No more calls please. We have a winner!

Klinton the Kommie, rats us out again. Who'd a thunk it?While I'd like to comment more on the US-ROK exercises, I will refrain from doing so and provide a public source of information.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/ex-usfk.htm

jmbg29
February 10, 2003, 05:40 PM
The Team Spirit exercise, held between 1976 and 1993 by the U.S. and South Korean militaries, was canceled in hopes North Korea would abandon its nuclear program and allow international inspections. Team Spirit continued to be scheduled from 1994 to 1996 but was canceled each year as an incentive to improve relations. About 200,000 U.S. and South Korean servicemembers participted in Team Spirit. Ah! Hope springs eternal, no?

Bahadur
February 11, 2003, 07:01 AM
jmbg29:
Ah! Hope springs eternal, no?Indeed. :)

There is also another point buried in the entire document about the relative importance of the various exercises...

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