How long until 5000 members


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PATH
December 28, 2002, 01:14 AM
I say that by January 6th at the latest we should have at least 5000 members. What do you folks think?

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Schuey2002
December 28, 2002, 01:25 AM
We are at 1,537 members right now.

I have a feeling that it could take a little longer than you may think. My vote is for late January,say, the 25th.

Whenever the magic "5000" happens,I'm sure that the Padre gets a kick out of watching the member count climb. ;)

PATH
December 28, 2002, 01:32 AM
1000 or so people have registered in the last two days alone. I really think it can go there!

Schuey2002
December 28, 2002, 01:37 AM
Yeah,it can go there, and go there quickly.
But,sooner or later, it will slow down. It may take a month or two,or it could happen all of a sudden. Who knows?? *shrug*

This type of thing is a little like playing the Lottery. ;)

Preacherman
December 28, 2002, 01:54 AM
Our growth rate is already slowing down... Based on our first three full days of operation (12 noon on 12/24/02 to 12 noon on 12/27/02), our growth looked like this:

First day: started with 94, ended with 739 = 645 new members, or 786% up from previous day;
Second day: started with 739, ended with 1,125 = 386 new members, or 52½% up from previous day;
Third day: started with 1,125, ended with 1,407 = 282 new members, or 25% up from previous day.

I think we've got most active TFL'ers here already. There are quite a number who are away over the Christmas period, and won't read about our startup until they get back home and log in to TFL. Equally, there are many TFL'ers who decided to go to other boards such as Gun-Talk, etc. and who may have decided to stay there. But the biggest factor is simply that the vast majority of those who were registered on TFL were not active at all... they had registered one, or two, or three years ago, posted for a while, and then dropped off the radar screen. If you look at TFL's member list, an astonishing number are inactive (at least as far as new posts are concerned).

Extrapolating from the growth rates shown above, I would expect us to be at around the 2,000 mark (plus-or-minus a hundred or so) by the New Year. If a bunch come back from holiday and register, this may drive up the numbers: but I don't know how likely this is. I think we shall be very fortunate to reach 5,000 members in our first year of operation. Still, I'd rather have quality than quantity on a board like this: and judging from the TFL records of those who've come here, we've certainly got the cream of the TFL crop!

(And Schuey - yes, I am enjoying it!!! :D I would much rather have had TFL still flourishing, but since that can't be, this is much the best solution, IMHO.)

blades67
December 28, 2002, 03:22 AM
I think we're all enjoying it.:D

Ala Dan
December 28, 2002, 05:33 AM
I think we should reach 5,000 strong by January 10th!
Don't know why, but this seems like a good date.

Best Wishes,
Ala Dan, N.R.A. Life Member

telewinz
December 28, 2002, 06:17 AM
About the same time bombs start falling in Iraq.

2nd Amendment
December 28, 2002, 11:25 AM
You guys are asking for a little too much. 2500 by the end of January, tops.

Out of 12 to 16,000 "inactive" user names at TFL you can figure an awful lot of them are still lurking. They're dropping in once a month, once every couple months. They aren't heavy duty posters on any board, usually, but they do pass through. Under the right circumstances some of them would become regulars. Has anyone considered asking Rich to send out one last email to all registered members, regardless of recent activity, directing them here? I know someone mentioned this before immediately after the announcement but I never heard another peep and am thinking it might have gotten lost in the shuffle.

Lennyjoe
December 28, 2002, 12:25 PM
Im thinking more like mid March. This place rocks and word will spread fast. Just a matter of time before the word is out and we are bombarded by newbies.

Lets Roll Baby

MitchSchaft
December 28, 2002, 12:29 PM
I'll agree with you Lenny. I'd be safe and say mid April.

Has anyone considered asking Rich to send out one last email to all registered members, regardless of recent activity, directing them here?

I saw a post stating he would do that.

GunGeek
December 28, 2002, 12:29 PM
Hey 2nd Amendment! I resemble that remark. :D

Work has had me way to busy to post activly, but I swing by once a week or so to look around and read up.

gorf
December 28, 2002, 12:33 PM
June 3, 2003 @ 11:35 est.

rlpinca
December 28, 2002, 12:40 PM
I'm going to go with late march, early april. After about 2500 it will probably slow down quite a bit.

Bacchus
December 28, 2002, 02:32 PM
I'm glad I saw this thread, as I was just wondering the same thing. I noticed the massive growth during the first two days and got all excited that our numbers would increase quickly.

I was wondering how long it would take to surpass TFL's membership of 17K. A couple years?

Kevinch
December 28, 2002, 03:13 PM
Hmmmm...I'm not sure when. As mentioned, there are those that post everyday, & they are probably already here.

Then there are those that post once a week or so, and with the holidays might not get online as much. They probably aren't all here yet, but a lot probably are.

Those that post and/or visit once or twice a month might not even know yet, & when they do might not join up until they want to post, instead opting to simply cruise & read the threads.

Then there are those that joined simply to post a single question or troll. Hopefully, the latter will be a long time coming.

Then there will be those that joined but left a long time ago for whatever reason - passing on, lack of interest, etc.

Of course, TFL closing & THR opening during the winter & cabin-fever months will help increase membership quicker than if it were mid-summer.

Lancel
December 28, 2002, 03:41 PM
Agreed that a lot of folks may not know that this site is up and running.:(

I found it only because I went looking for it at TFL after I came back home from Christmas travels.

So I just went over to TFL, found Oleg's "The High Road forum now open" thread and put it back to the top.:)

Cabby
December 28, 2002, 04:44 PM
My guess is Valentine's day.

What do I get if I win? How bought a 9mm upper for my AR?:D

Cabby

telewinz
December 28, 2002, 04:48 PM
As word gets out I think my original perdiction will hold 4-5 weeks from now their will be loud bangs in Irag and 5000+ members here.:)

blades67
December 28, 2002, 04:54 PM
I think we'll hit 5000 members by July.

twoballcane
December 28, 2002, 11:56 PM
I had just signed on at TFL a week or so before the closing was announced.Tonight I saw High Road noted on a comment on the 1911 Fourm,and signed up right away.

Redlg155
December 29, 2002, 12:03 AM
1,706 members. 11:00 PM CST

hmmm...5G?..End of February.

Good Shooting
Red

Blackhawk
December 29, 2002, 12:12 AM
I think we're all enjoying it. Yep.

I agree with PreacherMan that growth will slow down, but I think there'll be another spike after the 1st when TFL can't be posted to. Some people actually have lives, and they may not check in every day or week or month even though they're avid shooters.

Some people also have the two weeks surrounding Christtmas and New Years off and are traveling. I've been chumming around with several old friends in town for vacation at this time.

I also think opening hostilities with Iraq will cause a surge of registrations just like 9/11 did at TFL.

rick458
December 29, 2002, 07:29 AM
I got invited By Kruzr he said a bunch of the UKF posters went here, this is definitly the most ACTIVE forum I use BTW sorry to hear TFL pulled the plug on Ya'll, it sucked when UKF imploded:mad:

faustulus
December 29, 2002, 03:34 PM
and judging from the TFL records of those who've come here, we've certainly got the cream of the TFL crop!

ummm, cream :)

NEon
December 29, 2002, 04:42 PM
Feb. 2nd, 01:52 Hours. Is there a door prize for this!:D

rick458
December 29, 2002, 05:20 PM
you win a FREE MEMBERSHIP if you guess it correctly.

emann
December 29, 2002, 11:09 PM
Saw something about it at TFL tonight and here I am. 5000 members, that might be awhile. :confused:

Guyon
December 29, 2002, 11:14 PM
For all the talk of upteen thousand members on TFL, I wondered how many of them were active members--folks who participated in discussions at least once a week.

Right now, it seems to me that THR is getting TFL's active folks. Others will follow. Some will post. Some will not. Others will lurk.

Tim Burke
May 4, 2003, 07:15 AM
May 5, +/- 1 days.

telewinz
May 4, 2003, 11:38 AM
I still maintain my original perdiction..........when the bombs start falling in Bagdad, we will hit 5000. I have great confidence that we will go to war with Iraq and we will win BIG Time.:uhoh:

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