Will AWB Sunset hurt gun dealers?


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Zundfolge
May 13, 2004, 01:55 AM
I don't mean long term .... after the sunset it will probably cause business to pick up, but from about July through September do you think maybe people will decide against buying that new gun because "if I just wait 'til September I can get it with full cap mags"?

I wonder if in August there will be some real good deals on "post ban" configured guns? (my birthday's in August .... I might actually have some money then).

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Mikul
May 13, 2004, 12:04 PM
I think it will hurt their business because they have pre-ban guns that they purchased at ban prices, and they aren't going to get their investment back.

MoNsTeR
May 13, 2004, 12:05 PM
If manufacturers of >10rd guns start including full-cap mags straight away after September, it'll kill the value of A LOT of inventory sitting on the shelves with 10rd mags. To me, that makes the possibility of some kind of trade-in program all the more likely.

Mr. Mysterious
May 13, 2004, 12:32 PM
Most dealers seem to say that it won't sunset. I think it is that they don't want for it to sunset.

A lot have money invested in pre-ban magazines and pre-ban rifles.

Who is going to want that post ban AR-15 when your can get the sunsetted AR-15, tricked out how it is supposed to be for the same price or less.

Werewolf
May 13, 2004, 01:18 PM
I'd be interested in knowing why most people believe that the average price for an AR-15 or other so called assault weapon is going to go down. I don't think it will. There's no incentive for the manufacturer's to lower prices unless the demand curve for AR-15's is extremely elastic which I seriously doubt. It just "aint a goin' to happen".

As for 10 round mags... They still have utility and will be sellable albeit my guess would be at fire sale prices. Dealers take the loss on the mags and they pay less taxes that year though I don't imagine the loss would be in accounting terms - material. Dealers may have to discount pre-sunset weapons to get rid of them but I doubt if they'll have to sell them at a loss.

Gunsmiths on the other hand may very well have a banner year adding banned features to pre-sunset weapons. I for one would like to get a real flash suppressor on my AR as well as one of those evil bayonet lugs. I don't want a folding stock though and have all the hi-cap mags I need.

MoNsTeR
May 13, 2004, 06:55 PM
Prices for actual pre-ban units will go down, since there will no longer be a legal distinction between pre-94's and post-94's. Prices for unit categories are more uncertain. Hi-cap pistol prices will go up, since the price of a complement (hi-cap mags) will fall considerably. That same affect won't occur for rifles since most rifle mags are abundant/cheap already. Prices for rifles might be affected by the re-inclusion of various features, but I doubt by very much.

10rd mags won't be worthless, but they won't be worth $16-$30 either. They'll still be valuable to Californians, Canadians, etc. but those markets are limited.

There's definitely widespread miscalculation regarding how prices will move post-sunset. Unfortunately, I don't at this time see how to use correct knowledge to earn profits, only to avoid losses :o

Lord Bodak
May 13, 2004, 07:01 PM
So many states have mag capacity limits now, I imagine most manufacturers will still ship their guns with 10rd mags. But at least newly manufactured standard-cap mags will be available, which should drive prices down.

kernal_panic
May 13, 2004, 07:35 PM
i don't think they'll take such a huge loss on mags. i predict the mags will be sold at firesale prices but "Postpre ban" will sell like hotcakes because we'll all want to get good and stocked up incase that SOB kerry gets elected.

sumpnz
May 13, 2004, 07:36 PM
I would imagine that prices for 10rd mags will go down because nobody will want them once higher cap mags are available, but the higher cap mags (new and used) will go way up becuase everone and his half-brother will be burning rubber to get to the gun shop once they hear they've got 'em.

I doubt the prices of pre-ban weapons will drop much (maybe a little - only becuase new ones are available) but the price of post-bans will go down a lot. Aside from cheap ba$***** (like me) nobody will buy them if they can get ones with evil features again. New post-sunset weapons will start out at inflated prices becuase of high demand, but just like when a hot new car comes out just wait a year or two and prices will come back down to earth.

That's all short term. Longer term the pre-bans will drop in price to whatever their reasonalbe/fair value as a used gun should be, and 10 rd mags will be almost worthless except where standard cap mags are banned by state/local law. Pre-ban mags will also eventually drop to whatever current prices are for used 10 rd mags.

All IMHO, YMMV.

Zundfolge
May 13, 2004, 07:52 PM
Keep in mind that 10 round mags are still useful for IDPA and IPSC Limited 10.

Lone_Gunman
May 13, 2004, 09:05 PM
10rd mags won't be worthless, but they won't be worth $16-$30 either. They'll still be valuable to Californians, Canadians, etc. but those markets are limited.

I was under the impression that Canadians did not have a high cap mag ban. Do they or not?

Werewolf
May 13, 2004, 09:28 PM
Keep in mind that 10 round mags are still useful for IDPA and IPSC Limited 10

:D Limited 10 categories exist primarily because of the AWB and mag cap limits.

When the AWB goes away in my estimation the Limited 10 division of IPSC will almost assuredly go away with it - those (us) IPSC guys are gamers to the max. ;) I'm not sure about IDPA but since it is still mostly focused on simulating real life situations as best as it can I doubt limited 10 will survive there either.

WonderNine
May 13, 2004, 09:30 PM
I didn't think they did either. Maybe they do on handguns and centerfire rifles, but you hear about 50 round 10/22 mags up there for cheap.

MoNsTeR
May 14, 2004, 04:59 PM
Limited 10 will not go away, due to California, New Jersey, etc. Nor will USPSA Production switch away from a 10-round limit. There are a host of reasons these rules are good that are unrelated to the AWB.

Here's a thread about this very topic at the Enos forums:
http://brianenos.ibforums.com/index.php?showtopic=11155

ShaiVong
May 14, 2004, 05:33 PM
I would imagine that preban AR prices will bottom out... Now they're nothing more than AR15's that are at least a decade old.

BryanP
May 14, 2004, 06:59 PM
Heck, my dealer will make money off of me. I'll be dropping my AR off to have the barrel threaded, a proper flash suppressor put on, and the front sight block replaced with one that has a bayonet lug.

telewinz
May 14, 2004, 07:20 PM
I think when the ban is lifted, at first their will be a boom for dealers BUT after 90 days it will dry up. It's supply and demand and those who wanted AWs probably already have them. Any "pre-bans" left on the dealer's shelf will be tuff to sell competing against the "new" pre-bans that WILL be coming out.

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