A good reason Kerry is ahead in the polls


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Desertdog
June 16, 2004, 01:03 AM
Polls don't lie, but liers take polls! Make them come out the way you want them to.:barf:

TWISTED: LA Times Poll Had Sample With 38% Democrats, 25% Republicans
Tue Jun 15 2004 10:13:47 ET
http://drudgereport.com/flash5.htm

Sen. John Kerry "has taken big lead," according "to an L.A. Times poll."

But the Times poll that showed Kerry "beating Bush by 7 points" has created a controversy over whether the poll's sample accurately reflects the population as whole, ROLL CALL reports on Tuesday.

"Not counting independents, the Times' results were calculated on a sample made up of 38 percent Democrats and 25 percent Republicans -- a huge and unheard-of margin," ROLL CALL claims.

Developing...

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Bubbles
June 16, 2004, 07:09 AM
The only poll that matters will occur on November 2nd.

Also, I list myself as "undecided" in the Presidential race at this time. My decision will be made on September 14th.

HankB
June 16, 2004, 08:49 AM
So even though the "poll" had 13% more democRATS than it did Republicans, Kerry only eked out a 7% margin? Hmmm . . .

tiberius
June 16, 2004, 08:55 AM
This was a national poll right? I know there are more registered Dems the Repubs, but does anyone know the ratio of actual dems who genrerally vote vs. Repubs? I doubt its 50/50.

Spot77
June 16, 2004, 08:59 AM
The title of this thread is misleading......there IS NO GOOD REASON WHATSOEVER FOR KERRY TO EVER BE AHEAD IN ANY POLL.....:fire:


...unless you live in a communist or terrorist state.....

dischord
June 16, 2004, 09:00 AM
tiberius asks the correct questions. An even split might skew the results.

pittspilot
June 16, 2004, 10:51 AM
There are so many things that can skew or bias a poll.

I would agree that Democrats and Republicans do not break down into a 50-50 split. There tend to be more Democrats, by about a 5% split, although that it closing in recent years.

However, the LA Times is notorious for having weird results. That 13% should not be possible for a nationally representative sample, and that Kerry is only 7% ahead with that skew does not mean big lead.

BTW, there may also be another reason that the poll is skewed. For instance, it is known that if you populate your poll callers with females, people, especially men, that would identify as Repubs will instead identify as Dems. Also, there is a notable change in position. The same is true with race of your pollers, age of your pollers, education of your pollers, etc.

Polling has problems.

halvey
June 16, 2004, 10:52 AM
My uncle would tell me the reason Dems were always ahead in polls is because polls are conducted from 9-5. Therefore, all the people working and paying the taxes never get polled.

I don't think was ever entirely true, especially now since many people work different hours.

woerm
June 16, 2004, 11:01 AM
Bubbles,

Amen,

I'll make a decision on Sept 14 as well,

r

fix
June 16, 2004, 11:03 AM
Considering the fact that I have never been "polled" and do not personally know anyone who has...in fact have never even met anyone who has, I don't give them any credibility at all. For all I know, the numbers could be entirely made up. Anyone on THR been the subject of a political poll?

Langenator
June 16, 2004, 11:08 AM
Given that it's the LA Times, they're probably polling in LA-LA Land or the PRK. In that case, in might accurately reflect the local splits.

Waitone
June 16, 2004, 11:52 AM
I am reading "Off with Their Heads" by Dick Morris. One chapter is worth the price of a leather-bound, gold leaf edged copy. The chapter is about polling and how it is used, developed, and manipulated. The New York Times is the specific target of Morris' wrath. He exposes how the NYT manipulates samples, engages in push polls, pushes agenda of the week, then checks their effectiveness in propaganda by running a follow up poll.

Reading that chapter made me mad enough to to light the torch, heat up the tar pot and grab a feather pillow.

Do yourself a favor and get a copy of the Morris' book. A truly outstanding expose of our so-called 4th estate.

Tom C.
June 16, 2004, 12:56 PM
Concern for the accuracy of this poll is well justified. The poll was biased based on a significantly larger Demorat sample then Republican. These guys (the LA Times), are the same ones who said Davis would retain the governorship in a walk.
Of more interest is why the poll numbers for Kerry are so low, in view of the constant barrage of anti-Bush propaganda coming from the major “news” organizations. They are participating in a full court press to replace Bush with the hard core Marxist Kerry.
Any questions?

Desertdog
June 16, 2004, 04:03 PM
Anyone on THR been the subject of a political poll?
I was 3 times in less than 2 weeks by the LA Times, all with the same questions.

Think they may have liked my answers.

The only poll that really counts is the one done in November, at the polls.

sumpnz
June 16, 2004, 04:18 PM
I've recieved a number of calls for political polls, though I've only answered one or two that I recall. I got a call for a poll of some sort just a few weeks ago. Dunno what it was for though they were looking for 18-24 yearolds. Told them nobody in that range was in the house although my wife is 23 (I'm turning 27 a week from tomorrow).

moa
June 16, 2004, 05:26 PM
I think I was called once by the New York Times years ago about a poll they where taking. I hung up.

Last data I have seen on it, only 33% of registered voters are Democrats.

The only pollster I have seen that seems creditable is Zogby. His polls always seem to end up being the most accurate after election results are tallied.

Standing Wolf
June 16, 2004, 07:24 PM
The only poll that really counts is the one done in November, at the polls.

If and only if representatives of the Democratic (sic) party aren't engaged in massive, systematic vote fraud.

UnknownSailor
June 16, 2004, 08:19 PM
When aren't Democrats engaging in vote fraud? Especially in Illinois?

Malone LaVeigh
June 16, 2004, 08:21 PM
If and only if representatives of the Democratic (sic) party aren't engaged in massive, systematic vote fraud. That's pretty hilarious after the Republican shenenigans in the 2000 election. Talk about a November poll that didn't count...

GoRon
June 16, 2004, 08:36 PM
Republican shenenigans

Thats a joke, the only shenanigans were by democrats.

Lets keep counting until we get the result we want!

The only reason a Democrats win is because they consistantly promise more govm't give aways.

fix
June 16, 2004, 08:46 PM
That's pretty hilarious after the Republican shenenigans in the 2000 election.

I'd love to introduce you to my friend, who had his vote actively suppressed by Democratic lawyers in 2000 in the State of Florida. His vote was not counted. We know this to be a fact. He was serving overseas in the Marine Corps, making it even more disgusting.

rayra
June 16, 2004, 08:47 PM
Any political poll can be easily skewed in favor for the Dems just by calling only large cities.
Any political poll in CA can just as easily be skewed by calling only the counties around San Fran Bay and L.A. County.

And one of the oft-quoted pollsters, Zogby, is a raving Dem / Islamophile.

And both the LA Times and Zogby got the CA Recall and Gov races MAJORLY Wrong.

Lastly, all major polls, including Gallup's, typically use a call / response sample size of only ~2000 people to generate the National data they spew.

Believe what you want, but be aware of the politics, leanings, and choice of methodology behind them.

Spot77
June 16, 2004, 08:51 PM
I don't care that Kerry is a Democrat; I care that he's a gun grabbing Communist.


I'm fortunate enough to have some VERY pro gun Democrats representing my district here on the local level.

sumpnz
June 16, 2004, 08:53 PM
Thats a joke, the only shenanigans were by democrats. Oh, come on. There were shenanigans by both sides. Perhaps more from the Dems, perhaps not, but the Repubs were hardly on the high road at all times. The irony, from something I remember seeing a while back was that if the re-count was done the way Gore wanted (i.e. selected - by him - districts) Bush would win. If they were re-counted the way Bush wanted (the entire state, inlcuding all absentee ballots) Gore would have won. In the end though it doesn't matter. Where's that beating a dead horse animation when you need it?

The only reason a Democrats win is because they consistantly promise more govm't give aways. Go to any partisan Dem forum and they'll be saying the same thing about the Repubs. Dems promise give aways to the poor and working class. Repubs promsie give aways for the rich and upper-middle class. At least if you believe what each's opposition says.

Little Loudmouth
June 16, 2004, 08:53 PM
I'll make my decision on September 14...

Hmmm. Figure this. If Bush renews the AWB, we go on with having... ahem...cough... assault weapons :rolleyes: banned, but if Kerry is elected, he'll most likely try to ban ALL guns. Both unacceptable, but still, when you're in between two evils, choose the lesser.

wally
June 16, 2004, 09:02 PM
I count as a Democrat this year because I voted in the Dem primary (can only choose one) so I could vote against Ken Benson who as a freshman cast the deciding vote to pass Clinton's AWB!

He's off the ballot completely now.

--wally.

AZLibertarian
June 17, 2004, 09:52 PM
As others have said, there are numerous ways that these polls can be manipulated to achieve the result those paying for the poll may intend.

However, I never pay attention to any national poll that says "Americans are split 53%/47% for Candidate X over Candidate Y".

We elect our presidents through the Electoral College. Gore's claim that he won the national popular vote, while true (and perhaps interesting) is absolutely irrelevant. You might as well compare how many people drove domestic cars to how many drove imports to the polls. It might tell you something about voters, but it has nothing to do with how we elect presidents.

Now show me a story about how each state is polling, and I'll pay attention. These, however, are very few and far between. These stories require actual legwork on the part of the reporters; They require Americans to understand that we're not voting for Senior Class President here; and they may not convey the agendas of the media.

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