risk of violent crime


PDA






dshimm
August 9, 2004, 04:14 PM
The other day my wife told me that she didn't see why I carry a firearm, and that she thought that my risk of being shot by a policeman after being "made" carrying a concealed weapon was higher than my risk of being a victim of violent crime.

Now while I've never heard of a CCW holder being capped by a cop for simply being made, her comment about being a victim of violent crime piqued my interest. Can somebody point me in the direction of any statistics related to violent crime victimization? I seem to recall a website that spat out a risk assessment after the viewer completed a questionnaire, but I think that one has been taken down. Google and Ask Jeeves haven't led me anywhere useful.

Any ideas here? Hopefully, with proper documentation I can not only get her to feel more comfortable with me carrying, but also get her to get her more comfortable with the idea of firearms, and then maybe a CCW.

If you enjoyed reading about "risk of violent crime" here in TheHighRoad.org archive, you'll LOVE our community. Come join TheHighRoad.org today for the full version!
Pilgrim
August 9, 2004, 04:21 PM
I am not aware of any instances of CCW holders being shot by police, but I am aware of a number of instances where officers in plain clothes have been shot by their uniformed brothers while responding to a crime in progress.

Pilgrim

sendec
August 9, 2004, 04:21 PM
fbi.gov, search for the Uniform crime report.

google the national criminal justice research service, I want to say it is ncjrs.org, but could be wrong. They'll have more stats than you want via the Bureau of Justice Statistics. In particular a document styled Weapon Use and Violent Crime may be helpful from September 2003 NCJ194820, also try searching for "Patterns of Victimization". Sorry for the improper cites.

sendec
August 9, 2004, 04:28 PM
Understand that violent crime, particularly stranger on stranger crimes not related to theft offenses, is on the decrease, and for a significant portion of our population is not really that common, specifically white middle age males living in rural areas. When it does occur, the perp is frequently known to the victim.

I would hazard a guess that the average THR member is one of the least likely to actually need to use a defensive firearm. Your wife arguably has a greater need for a gun than you do.

Of course I can say that, I'm wearing 2 guns and 3 knives as I write this:D

I'm here to help.;)

MP5
August 9, 2004, 04:45 PM
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/cvict.htm

dshimm
August 9, 2004, 04:46 PM
The FBI Uniform Crime Reports were interesting, but what I'd really like to see is a lifetime risk of crime victimization, something along the line of one person in three, or one person in three hundred, will be the victim of violent crime over his lifetime.

You're absolutely right about my wife's risk. And in addition, she has one more year of graduate school at the University of Chicago in beautiful Hyde Park, where she's not only more likely to be the victim of a predator, she has been legislatively disarmed (of course, for her it's academic since she won't get a CCW permit here in WV where it's legal, but that's another issue).

Shield529
August 9, 2004, 06:02 PM
You can look all the stats. you want but the fact is it only takes one time and you never know when it will happen or who it will happen to.
If there is one violent crime in your area per year, next year there might just be two.
I think you just need to keep working with the wife, it took me two years to get mine from rabid anti. to whining for a PPK.
I hope I never have to use my weapon but it is always there

Wildalaska
August 9, 2004, 06:23 PM
would hazard a guess that the average THR member is one of the least likely to actually need to use a defensive firearm.

Stop that! Edit your post...MODS...DELETE THAT LIE!!!!!

I mean, how can Board members justify carrying 10mms with two spare mags, a knife, cell phone, sure fire light if that canard is true....!!! You make the defensive rationale for carrying heavy firepower into nothing but an ego trip...

We know thats not true..

Wilddontwe?Alaska

Art Eatman
August 9, 2004, 07:43 PM
Aw, Wild, ain't it reasonable to believe that the folks most likely to carry insurance are those least likely to really need it?

You go to reading the "where, when, why" stuff about violent crime, and it looks like about 3/4 of the people involved sorta worked at it; they just flat tried to get into a mess.

Folks who live in Condition Yellow generally don't have problems of any sort. And you don't need to be totin' iron to live in Condition Yellow...

:), Art

spartacus2002
August 9, 2004, 08:01 PM
I think John Lott's "More Guns, Less Crime" might address that, but I'm not sure, as it's been a while since I've read it.

sm
August 9, 2004, 08:15 PM
I had to go to a Federal Bldg . I paralled parked and fed the meter. I was drinking a coke ,one in glass bottle since I couldn't take anything in due to metal detectors.

I see my old LEO buddy, though technicallly retired he is active in some other LEO business. Now he knows I CCW ...we shoot clays and stuff together. So yeah he reminded me about the metal detectors and all...and since we were headed to the same place...and would be leaving at same time... He had his "Court Gun" For his primary CCW - Model 19.

This is NOT a good area to be wandering around being stupid and unaware. " I know what the glass bottle is for....tell you what - throw the bottle at the biggest threat, and my BUG is that model 36 you remember so well...and if need, run to < tells me> cause we can get in the back way there if need."

Condition yellow is good . Condition Yellow is Gooder if the fellla you are walking in and out with is legal to carry in Fed Bldg, and offers use of his BUG. :D

crucible
August 9, 2004, 08:54 PM
Cemetaries are full of people who thought it couldn't happen to them, or thought they would be on the other side of the risk management assessment of thier lives they made. I wonder if those people in Florida determined they didn't need it? Same goes for the Starbucks in Georgetown DC where all the employees were murdered, same for the CIA HQ were a terrorist got an AK and started hosing down employees in thier cars waiting at the stop light in front of the CIA, or the armed father who defended him and his son's life without firing a shot against the teenage thrill murders who later went to brutally murder two college professors in New England, or any number of thousands of other places and peoples who have been touched by the evil that walks this earth.

Tell your wife that you carry a firearm for the same reason you carry a spare tire and jack in the trunk of your car.

The ability to defend you or your loved one's lives is never needed, until it's needed very badly; tell your wife that not taking into account the possibility of needing a firearm to defend you and her doesn't possibly enter your mind because you love her, and anything less that preparing for the full measure in defense of that love is sticking-one's-head-in-the-sand madness at best.

Tell her you hope and pray that you'll never have to use it, but tell her you will.

Cruc

Ransom
August 9, 2004, 09:32 PM
The odds of being in a high speed crash are pretty low but that doesnt mean you shouldnt buckle up.

Plus every innocent victim thats been killed probably never thought they'd be victims either.

R.H. Lee
August 9, 2004, 09:33 PM
Folks who live in Condition Yellow generally don't have problems of any sort. And you don't need to be totin' iron to live in Condition Yellow...


Thank you. If you maintain the first line of defense, chances are you won't need the boomstick.

sendec
August 9, 2004, 10:25 PM
I'm in Condition Yellow so much people think I have a liver problem.

Innocent bystanders frequently are'nt

Carrying a gun is weird.

Carrying two is normal.

TrapperReady
August 10, 2004, 01:07 AM
When stuff like this comes up, I don't quote stats. I quote experiences.

One of my sisters had a serial rapist force his way into her apartment at 2:00AM. Fortunately, her husband (asleep in the next room until he heard her scream) was able to fend off the attack and restrain the guy until the police showed up.

Same sister has (in a different apartment in a different state) had her place burglarized a couple of times... with one attempt while she was home.

I've had a friend abducted at knife-point by a guy who wanted her to use her ATM card to get him cash. The guy got away, but was killed in a similar event which turned into a police shootout a couple months later.

The house I used to live in was broken into during broad daylight. Fortunately, our dogs scared them off. BTW, this was DIRECTLY across the street from the house owned by the Chief of Police.

Two of my good friends were robbed at gunpoint while walking along a sidewalk in St. Louis. A van pulled up next to them and the passenger asked for directions. While they tried to help, the side door slid open and two armed men relieved them of their purses and wallets.

The wife one of my wife's co-workers was abducted (along with her infant child) during an ATM-robbery/car-jacking. The wife was pistol-whipped and left for dead. She and the baby survived, but she had suffered a permanent brain injury.

I've got several other instances I could recount, but I think you've got the idea. I live in a very "safe", low-crime area with an excellent police department. Even so, the last time I called 911, it took the police around 8 or 9 minutes to respond. That can literally be a lifetime.

Therefore, I take whatever legal steps I can to push the odds in my favor.

slacker
August 10, 2004, 06:01 AM
1. While working for a pizza restaurant my manager was killed during a robbery on my day off.
2. On a delivery (for a different pizza store) I was mugged.
3. On my way home from work I was carjacked at gunpoint.

Several of my coworkers were shot at and one of my friends was shot during that same time period (1985-1993).

But did I need to be armed? In my opinion, yes. And I now have a permit. But at the time the permits were not available in Texas. And the crime rate was much higher than now. And many people we argue that despite being mugged and having my car stolen I was not injured so I must not need a gun even when I think I do.

Ryder
August 10, 2004, 10:05 AM
The odds for me were a half dozen encounters in the ten years between age 15-25 but only 2 in the last 25.

This tells me we can learn to avoid past mistakes over time. But only if we survive them. Feels like I'm overdue for another thrill (knock on wood).

cslinger
August 10, 2004, 10:45 AM
I mean, how can Board members justify carrying 10mms with two spare mags, a knife, cell phone, sure fire light if that canard is true....!!! You make the defensive rationale for carrying heavy firepower into nothing but an ego trip...

EGO TRIP!!!!??? My most carried firearm is a S&W Model 60 Jframe LADYSMITH. Man I have no ego left. :uhoh: :D Heck I even carry .38s in it at times. Ego? Heck I have no self respect :rolleyes:

I am in the middle of the debate. I really think that based on my lifestyle etc. the chances of anything occurring to me are very low and I truely believe that my itty bitty 5 shot snubby with an extra speedloader or two will be more then adequate to allow me to E&E.

I agree with the seatbelt/ins analogy just because chances are low doesn't mean you shouldn't take precautions. I don't however get too caught up in the carry 11 magazines, mace, a shotty and have arty and fast movers on ready alert.

I was a Scout and I like to be prepared and I find myself able to get caught up into the overpreparing mindset and sometimes I feel like I should have a car rifle and a handgun with an extra magazine or two etc. but all in all that little Model 60 does me just fine. I will probably feel undergunned if I ever have to use it but the reality of that fear is I would feel undergunned if somebody broke into my house with a screwdriver and I had a fully loaded AR ready to go.

What's that rule of gunfighting......oh yeah have a gun.

cslinger
August 10, 2004, 10:50 AM
JOMT,

Always have a knife/multitool, a flashlight and a way to make fire. Remember Boyscout. :D

1-Leatherman Juice for those tactical wine openings.
1-Keyring LED light in case the candles go out during those evenings where tactical wine openings are necessary.
1-pack of matches to relight the afore mentioned candles.

Am I tactical or what? :cool:

JohnBT
August 10, 2004, 12:43 PM
I figure the odds on me being the object of a violent crime are 50-50. Either it happens or it don't. :)

Meanwhile, I'd rather have a full-size spare in my car than one of those little donut jobs that won't do over 50 or go very far. (I think this is called an analogy or something like that. Grad school was 30 years ago.)

So, for the fans of being undergunned out there...do you only load three cartridges in your 5-shot Airweight? Why not just two? Just kidding.

John...and I carry a little flashlight, a small SAK and a Sebenza...Be Prepared.

treeprof
August 10, 2004, 01:29 PM
Ultimately, the odds of an event happening are relatively unimportant; it's the significance of the event that matters. Most people have an intuitive, if subconscious undertanding of this fact. It's why people who won't play the lottery when the pot is a paltry $2 million will play when it's $100 million; the odds of winning remain the same, but the significance of the outcome have changed. Lottery pots go up rapidly and dramatically once they hit a certain point as this phenomenon feeds upon itself. In a self defense scenario, the potential outcome is death or great bodily harm to you, which makes the actual odds of being in one much less important.

Thumper
August 10, 2004, 01:37 PM
into nothing but an ego trip...

Hell, it is partially an ego trip...what's wrong with that?

I enjoy carrying a fine auto or revolver in much the same way that I enjoy wearing a fine watch, or using a fine pen.

Lupine
August 10, 2004, 05:00 PM
I've posted a similar version of this several months ago, but conversations I've had among my social crowd have inspired me to re-post. I know I'm not the only woman here, and since many of you boys keep asking for advice on addressing gun issues with lady friends, I thought I'd overshare a bit.

From a woman's perspective, I have a diverse group of female acquaintances and am never surprised when one of them reveals that she was the target of violent crime in the past--and it's by far the majority. Just last night, in fact, while out with the ladies for a few beers and some smack talk, I heard three life stories that made my skin crawl. These aren't stupid, clueless women. These aren't crimes committed in "bad" neighborhoods. These and my own experiences (and there are many) taught me that no matter how "safe" you play it, or where you are, or how yellow your awareness is, stuff can go down.

I don't carry often as most of my daily outings take me to places where it's prohibited (post office, other gov't buildings), but I'm extremely grateful for the level of awareness instilled in me through my various firearms classes and discussion forums such as this one. I do speak freely to friends about my position on gun issues, and when asked why I feel it's necessary to carry when I do or even have a gun at all, I've got plenty of answers--many blatantly ripped off from posts I've found here, and others based upon personal history.

Aside from my own experiences while in both conditions White and Yellow--including a violent attempted kidnapping by three strangers in a beat up car, a mugging in downtown Santa Barbara, an attempted car hijack, an ex-boyfriend who didn't understand the meaning of "it's over," and two men who banged on my front door demanding to use the phone (I smelled a rat and, through the door, directed them to a well-lit, very conspicuous pay phone across the street) I've heard a few interesting scenarios from friends that reinforce the "you never know" rule, including that of a strapping 6'7" man who was robbed and then shot at an ATM at an upscale strip mall (he survived to testify; the next victims did not).

I've gone over all of the above scenarios and debated whether or not having a gun would have helped. While I escaped most using quick thinking, plain luck or the heel of a shoe, I know I could have avoided most--if not all--of these situations if I were at that time among the folks who have the CCW mindset. Had I had a gun, at least I wouldn't have had to rely upon dumb luck--I would have had viable options.

I have a healthy respect and appreciation for law enforcement, but 911 is irrelevant in most cases of violence. Unless, of course, you need to call somebody to squeegee you off the sidewalk and take the description of the men who raped and beat you. Most cops are heroes. None are superheroes, and I don't see funding in the works for teleporters that will immediately place armed officers between you and the Bad Guy(s).

Most women can be easily overpowered by most males. But that doesn't mean we Amazons are left out of the fun and games. Being 5'10", sassy and physically fit, I've had people argue that anybody would be crazy to try to mess with me. To which I say, "Exactly my point, they were crazy and I've got the scars to prove it."

As a woman, I'm sick of being told "you shouldn't walk/fish/hike/live alone". Sick and tired of it. I'm independent, always have been, and armed or not I make decisions based on the likelihood of bad stuff happening. A gun doesn't entitle me to go walking in Methville, USA at two-a.m., and I'm still very wary about where I cast my lines when fishing solo. But at least I know that in the very worst-case scenario, I don't have to rely upon providence alone to prevent me from having to wait six months to a year to find out if I've been infected with AIDS, hepatitis, etc. Post-traumatic stress disorder? Yes. Either way, I'll have to deal with that, but it sure beats being dead.

Once here in the Northwest I took the afternoon off to fish and out of nowhere came some bozo who decided he wanted to show me his woolly bugger. When I decided my wading staff might not again be a sufficient deterrent in the case that the next whacko had more detailed fishing tips for me, I enrolled in my first CCW course. (You can invade my backyard, bully me on the street, try to break into my room at the Holiday Inn or stalk me for weeks, but mess with my river time and that's the last straw. That and the fact that I now live in a state in which CCW is an option.*) Thus began a long and informative journey that made me think deeply about my personal politics, day-to-day choices, and overall sense of self. I'd like to share the landmarks in that journey in case it helps any other women considering her position on firearms and self-defense, and the men trying to nudge them along.

Many times I've read of men seeking advice in reconciling wives/girlfriends/mothers/sisters with the concept of RKBA. Go easy on the ladies. Most of us, even those who have been "exposed" to guns all our lives, are "afraid" of handguns because we've been conditioned that way. All it took for me was the confidence of handling a handgun, knowing how it worked (or how to keep it from working) and a few fun trips to the range to increase my level of comfort and my ability to be more receptive to the reality of gun control issues. Fortunately, my "mentors" never tried to preach, overteach or let their testosterone get the best of them--they gave me the basic safety lessons, a few pointers, some books and online resources and let me find my own comfort level. Let the bug loose and if you're lucky, she'll get bit. Don't sic the bug on her or she'll squash it, and probably you, too. Nobody likes to be bossed around by know-it-all/show-off teachers--especially if they're spouses.

Best bet, if you can't refrain from your overexhuberance at finally getting her to the range, is to seek out a female firearms instructor or range member to show her the ropes.

Lacking this, a really hot male instructor will do nicely.

Make sure she starts out with a smaller caliber (gun that is) so she doesn't get freaked out or develop a flinch, but believe me most of my friends have graduated from my .22 single six to high-powered rifles in no-time. You may be surprised--the meekest ladies tend to go apedookie over the hobby sooner than anyone, especially if the boom is big. But baby steps!

Let her pick out her own gun after trying out many. If she happens to pick one that belongs to you, consider it an excuse to buy yourself a new toy as a reward for your efforts.

I never hit the highway without my Pookie (a very sexy little Kahr named after Garfield's teddy bear) and in the home/home office, I now have plans of action in place should the boogeyman pay a visit through any window or door. This is a good place to start with your honeys--teach them how to properly use and safely store a gun in controlled environments (car, office, home). Even if she never maintains an interest of her own, she will feel more comfortable in the presence of your own firearms. My own boyfriend, a hippie at heart, was not ballistically inclined but has become more at ease with my mini arsenal since I've exposed him to the basics and informed him of the emergency game plan. (His job is to disorient intruders with his hand drum while I break out the shotty.) (totally kidding there).

But before anybody gets to the point of considering CCW, they should at least have good, intermediary self-defense training. Many cities offer these classes for free, often sponsored by local law enforcement or the YMCA. This goes triple for us chicks. Girls, for the most part, aren't raised scrapping on the playground. We're taught to be polite and conciliatory. even those of us labeled as Generation X. These classes, in addition to teaching good defensive techniques, teach women to assert themselves vocally and physically. I have seen women with ZERO confidence end a four week course with more moxy than The Bride in Kill Bill (both volumes). Instilling physical confidence, situational awareness and a sense of being Worth Fighting For are fundamentals that need to be stressed among all women, and are excellent steps to introducing her to firearms geekery.

Enough blabbering. Hope it helps. Now, get thee to the range.

--lupine

* by the way: I believe that in most states, you don't need a permit to carry a concealed weapon while hunting or fishing. But I'm not a lawyer, so don't regard this advice as fact.

Drjones
August 10, 2004, 05:31 PM
The other day my wife told me that she didn't see why I carry a firearm, and that she thought that my risk of being shot by a policeman after being "made" carrying a concealed weapon was higher than my risk of being a victim of violent crime.

Uh...your wife has been watching too many movies. (And odd ones at that.)

I've never seen a movie in which a cop randomly shot someone, let alone heard of it in real life.

Randomly shooting someone like that is called murder whether you are a cop or not.

Now while I've never heard of a CCW holder being capped by a cop for simply being made, her comment about being a victim of violent crime piqued my interest. Can somebody point me in the direction of any statistics related to violent crime victimization? I seem to recall a website that spat out a risk assessment after the viewer completed a questionnaire, but I think that one has been taken down. Google and Ask Jeeves haven't led me anywhere useful.

There is an ongoing debate, and many real-world cases supporting both sides, regarding open carry and whether it deters crime or makes the carrier a target.

As for CCW, how are you going to get shot by someone for carrying a gun that they can't see? :scrutiny:


Any ideas here? Hopefully, with proper documentation I can not only get her to feel more comfortable with me carrying, but also get her to get her more comfortable with the idea of firearms, and then maybe a CCW.



Talk with her about it.

Don't expect to change her mind overnight, or even in a month.

Give her stuff to read and take her shooting. Start her with a .22 and work her up from there.

Good luck.

bill2
August 10, 2004, 06:53 PM
Excellent post lupine. I copied it and sent it to my sister in Seattle, who is vehemently anti-gun. Hopefully it will help. We've had numerous discussions on this matter and she hasn't budged.

Art Eatman
August 10, 2004, 08:13 PM
Yeah, thanks, lupine. Good words. You might even start a thread in S&T with that post, do some editing and a cut & paste thing. :)

Art

sendec
August 10, 2004, 08:30 PM
Lupine,

Check out Vicki Farnam's latest book. She is John Farnam's spouse and handler (and those of you who know John understand that that is a full time job) and has developed an expertise in the training of female shooters. With the firearms knowledge and skill she has aquired from working with John and her own background in teaching it is a potent package.

sendec
August 10, 2004, 08:39 PM
There is a special place in hell for guys who think that sliding 5 wadcutters and one full-house magnum into a gun, or "accidently" sliding a 3 inch mag OO round in with the skeet loads while introducing the "little lady" to shooting is the ultimate in hilarity.

As a really hot range instructor I do not appreciate you making her or my life more difficult. Dont do it, if for no other reason than I give them a few tricks for payback, which is, after all, a bitch.:)

spartacus2002
August 10, 2004, 09:07 PM
There is a special place in hell for guys who think that sliding 5 wadcutters and one full-house magnum into a gun, or "accidently" sliding a 3 inch mag OO round in with the skeet loads while introducing the "little lady" to shooting is the ultimate in hilarity.


hear hear!!

If you enjoyed reading about "risk of violent crime" here in TheHighRoad.org archive, you'll LOVE our community. Come join TheHighRoad.org today for the full version!