Election Predictions
- Thread starter patentmike
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I am really beginning to worry today for the first time. I know way more people voting for Kerry than voting for Bush--at least at work. Probably 70% to 30%. Sad really as these are all educated people for the most part. They don't even like Kerry, they just hate Bush. Where did all this anger against Bush come from? Did people hate his dad that much too? I don't recall.
Anyway, if praying helps I am doing it in my own way as we speak. With Kerry in office, things could get ugly for us--all of us.
Greg
Anyway, if praying helps I am doing it in my own way as we speak. With Kerry in office, things could get ugly for us--all of us.
Greg
Roon
Member
The Democratic Party is seen by many in our culture as the party to belong to if one is an intellectual, or strives to be. Most colleges and universities are, by far, considered Democratic territories, and to vote Republican is seen by many as being lower class, rough, uneducated.
Obviously, this has loads of exceptions, but for the most part, the sterotype goes that if you care for people and are "well" educated, you are a Democrat, if you care for power and wealth, you are a Republican. After Reagan, the surge of working class moving to the Republican Party, Reagan Democrats, only buttressed the "intellectual" home for the Dems.
Hence, the "elitist" term now goes to the Dems, where it once lived with the business-oriented GOP. Many people vote their self-image, what they want to be.
HankB
Member
That's what I've seen, too. I believe the hate is generated by the media, which, by and large, has even stopped PRETENDING to be fair and impartial.
Last night (11/01) they had CNN on the TVs at the gym. While I was running on the treadmill, CNN ran a story about how John Kerry was a typical kid in the 60's, and was part of a high school garage band, and how he played bass guitar even though it wasn't glamorous just to help the band, he was so good, so thoughtful, such a great kid . . .
It was just a
Kerry commercial, just as blatantly an advertisement as we'd see back in the '60s with the hosts of TV programs plugging products on the air.71Commander
Member
Fear not.
http://realclearpolitics.com/polls.html
RCP Average 10/27-11/1 48.9% 47.4% 0.9% Bush +1.5
Marist (1026 LV) 11/1 49% 50% 0% Kerry +1
GW/Battleground (1000 LV) 10/31-11/1 50% 46% 0% Bush +4
TIPP (1041 LV) 10/30-11/1 50.1% 48.0% 1.1% Bush +2.1
CBS News (939 LV) 10/29-11/1 49% 47% 1% Bush +2
Harris (1509 LV) 10/29-11/1 49% 48% 2% Bush +1
FOX News (1200 LV) 10/30-10/31 46% 48% 1% Kerry +2
Reuters/Zogby (1208 LV) 10/29-10/31 48% 47% 1% Bush +1
CNN/USA/Gallup(1573 LV)* 10/29-10/31 49% 49% 1% TIE
NBC/WSJ (1014 LV) 10/29-10/31 48% 47% 1% Bush +1
ABC/Wash Post (2904 LV)** 10/28-10/31 49% 48% 0% Bush +1
ARG (1258 LV) 10/28-10/30 48% 48% 1% TIE
CBS/NY Times (643 LV) 10/28-10/30 49% 46% 1% Bush +3
Pew Research (1925 LV) 10/27-10/30 51% 48% 1% Bush +3
Newsweek (882 LV) 10/27-10/29 50% 44% 1% Bush +6
Bush up by 4 points in FL and 2 in OH...
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6363705/
Kerry is always either even, or behind. It would be a final-hour miracle if Kerry won.
The electoral-vote site is heavily partisan, ignore that site.
realclearpolitics.com is good, as is mason-dixon.com is supposed to be the most accurate, historically, although I don't see that they release their polls publicly.
- Gabe
http://realclearpolitics.com/polls.html
RCP Average 10/27-11/1 48.9% 47.4% 0.9% Bush +1.5
Marist (1026 LV) 11/1 49% 50% 0% Kerry +1
GW/Battleground (1000 LV) 10/31-11/1 50% 46% 0% Bush +4
TIPP (1041 LV) 10/30-11/1 50.1% 48.0% 1.1% Bush +2.1
CBS News (939 LV) 10/29-11/1 49% 47% 1% Bush +2
Harris (1509 LV) 10/29-11/1 49% 48% 2% Bush +1
FOX News (1200 LV) 10/30-10/31 46% 48% 1% Kerry +2
Reuters/Zogby (1208 LV) 10/29-10/31 48% 47% 1% Bush +1
CNN/USA/Gallup(1573 LV)* 10/29-10/31 49% 49% 1% TIE
NBC/WSJ (1014 LV) 10/29-10/31 48% 47% 1% Bush +1
ABC/Wash Post (2904 LV)** 10/28-10/31 49% 48% 0% Bush +1
ARG (1258 LV) 10/28-10/30 48% 48% 1% TIE
CBS/NY Times (643 LV) 10/28-10/30 49% 46% 1% Bush +3
Pew Research (1925 LV) 10/27-10/30 51% 48% 1% Bush +3
Newsweek (882 LV) 10/27-10/29 50% 44% 1% Bush +6
Bush up by 4 points in FL and 2 in OH...
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6363705/
Kerry is always either even, or behind. It would be a final-hour miracle if Kerry won.
The electoral-vote site is heavily partisan, ignore that site.
realclearpolitics.com is good, as is mason-dixon.com is supposed to be the most accurate, historically, although I don't see that they release their polls publicly.
- Gabe
Bartholomew Roberts
Member
Ignore the poll results. The only poll that counts is going down right now. make sure you take part in it.
71Commander
Member
I'm in total agreement, but the polls make for good and lively conversation.
muleshoe
Member
It's funny, but I remember hearing a few months back when it was still up in the air that Missouri was the state that went with the winner for the past couple thousand years or so. Ever since it appeared as though Bush has had MO won, nary a word. I do hope that indicator stays true this time around.
Me and the wife did our part earlier this morning for Iowa. We'll see. As in a lot of states, the rural parts of the state goes Rep., the clowns uptown are a different story. They are probably unhappy because they gotta live all bunched up next to each other...no room to breath I reckon.
I'm muleshoe, and I approve of this message.
Me and the wife did our part earlier this morning for Iowa. We'll see. As in a lot of states, the rural parts of the state goes Rep., the clowns uptown are a different story. They are probably unhappy because they gotta live all bunched up next to each other...no room to breath I reckon.
I'm muleshoe, and I approve of this message.
New Jersey is apparently tied right now. Wouldn't it be ironic if New Jersey, which many who live there call a Socialist cesspool, ends up a Bush win and changes the election!
I certainly don't think New Jersey will end up siding for Bush, but its interesting that some polls show the state tied.
I certainly don't think New Jersey will end up siding for Bush, but its interesting that some polls show the state tied.
We also did our part this morning. Even tho' we live in California, we were both raised on farms and voted with the rural parts of the country. It's important to vote for Republicans in the local elections because one of those guys may eventually run for President, so we voted a straight ticket.
Regardless, I expect to be on the losing side of our Senate race as the incumbant is way too favored in the liberal urban centers (LA and SF). While my popular vote will go to the guy in the white cowboy hat, California's electoral college votes will go the the wind surfing Red Sox fan in the baseball cap sitting at the local waffle house. I expect my vote to be on the winning side of that election -- 4 more years. If not, I have enough ammo to last the rest of my life, and more rifles, pistols and shotguns than one of President Kerry-Heinz's honest law abiding subjects has a privilege to own.
Buy it now if you don't roll your own.
I'm expecting President Bush to receive >290 electoral college votes, hopefully a bit over 300.
Regardless, I expect to be on the losing side of our Senate race as the incumbant is way too favored in the liberal urban centers (LA and SF). While my popular vote will go to the guy in the white cowboy hat, California's electoral college votes will go the the wind surfing Red Sox fan in the baseball cap sitting at the local waffle house. I expect my vote to be on the winning side of that election -- 4 more years. If not, I have enough ammo to last the rest of my life, and more rifles, pistols and shotguns than one of President Kerry-Heinz's honest law abiding subjects has a privilege to own.
Buy it now if you don't roll your own. I'm expecting President Bush to receive >290 electoral college votes, hopefully a bit over 300.
Bartholomew Roberts
Member
Not too bad, eh?
Intune
Member
Not too shabby at all. The Swift Boat Vets served their country well once again.
I agree, except that ban should extend until 10am eastern the following day, or even until each state's vote is certified.
The vote counters should count all night, and in the morning when there are reasonably complete vote counts, media could start discussion and candidates could decide what to do. It's not good when people try to make important decisions at midnight or 3am after a long day.
Unfortunately, that's a state issue; the only government with the power to prohibit a state official from disclosing statewide election results is that state's government.
Roon
Member
Well, it isn't good to gloat, but I'm sure happy we won!!
And, looking at our various predictions, I'm happy I was off by only one state, MN. (OK, just a little gloat.) .
It's a success for gunowners.
And, looking at our various predictions, I'm happy I was off by only one state, MN. (OK, just a little gloat.) .
It's a success for gunowners.
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