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help me refute gun grabber

Discussion in 'General Gun Discussions' started by michiganfan, Apr 2, 2003.

  1. michiganfan

    michiganfan Senior Member

    Dec 26, 2002
    se michigan
    Got a female coworker who is as anti as it gets. A real gun grabber. She would be happy if only the government had guns. She is always telling me that statistics show that your 50 times more likely to be killed with your own gun that to thwart a crime. She says that her data is FBI statistics. Anybody know a good site that will provide data to refute her claim
  2. samualt

    samualt New Member

    Jan 19, 2003
  3. geekWithA.45

    geekWithA.45 Moderator Emeritus

    Jan 1, 2003
    SouthEast PA

    Also, google "Dave Kopel" "Kleck", "More Guns, Less Crime" and "Gun Truths"

    Don't be surprised if you don't get anywhere, though. Not all people listen to reason. Many will dismiss it as counter propaganda, as they cling to the lie that the 2nd is about the Nat'l Guard, that only the demented would want a gun, and that guns are imbued with the supernatural power of causing crime.
  4. blades67

    blades67 Senior Member

    Dec 24, 2002
    Mesa, Arizona, USA
    Tell her to bring you a hard copy of her "statistics", then give her a copy of Gary Kleck's "More Guns, Less Crime" and show her the truth.
  5. spacemanspiff

    spacemanspiff Senior Member

    Dec 24, 2002
    well gee the millions of defensive uses of a weapon sure are resulting in hundreds of millions of deaths in this country alone, arent they?

    fact: less than 30,000 firearm related deaths annually, this number has been dropping for the last several years, and considering that there are now 80,000,000+ gunowners in this country with over 300,000,000 guns, the statistics do NOT show a proportionate increase in firearm related deaths that track the inflated production and sales of firearms in this country.

    fact: the department of justice research showed that there are more than 1.5 million defensive uses of a gun in this country EACH YEAR. anyone with a basic grasp of mathematics will deduce that of the 270 who died during 2000 from legal interventions involving a firearm (not going to count in the homicides, accidents, or suicides), only one in 5,556 legal uses of a firearm to defend oneself results in a death. if you use the high estimate of 4,000,000 defensive uses of a firearm, that becomes one in 14,815.

    firearm deaths from 1979 - 2000, from the CDC national vital statistics report
    1979 - 33,019
    1980 - 33,780
    1981 - 34,050
    1982 - 32,957
    1983 - 31,099
    1984 - 31,331
    1985 - 31,566
    1986 - 33,373
    1987 - 32,895
    1988 - 33,989
    1989 - 34,776
    1990 - 37,155
    1991 - 38,317
    1992 - 37,776
    1993 - 39,595
    1994 - 38,505
    1995 - 35,957
    1996 - 34,040
    1997 - 32,436
    1998 - 30,708
    1999 - 28,874
    2000 - 28,663
  6. Number 6

    Number 6 Member

    Mar 21, 2003
    Ask her how the FBI arrived at such a statistic. When doing statistical analysis there are many factors that can affect the validity of the statistic. Often one encounters a statistic that is being used that upon closer examination does not apply to a given situation. Statistics provide good information but they must be done correctly and interpreted correctly. Whenever we hear a statistic or a poll on the news or in the paper we usually only get a very small portion of what the study actually published. When Gallup publishes a study they usually provide information on how the study was conducted and various other factors that have bearing on the validity of the data. Her data might actually be correct but my question to her is if she is using it correctly or if she is even interpreting the data correctly. A lot of people hear a statistic and automatically think it proves her point. There was a study done once that said that the more firemen that were called to a fire, the more damage to property there was. From this point one could argue then that there should be no fireman since there is a correlation between fireman and property damage. But such an argument forgets that more firemen are called for a more serious fire. The statistic she cites seems to be using the same type of logic. Of coarse I am more likely to shoot myself due to the fact that I shoot my gun once a week. Every time I shoot my gun there is a small chance that I will accidentally shoot myself. This then adds up over time. The amount of crime committed upon me happens far less than I shoot my gun so the odds are much less for me to use my gun in self defense. It’s just a game of probability not necessarily a good argument she is using. Even if her statistic is correct in my opinion it is a meaningless statistic.
  7. synoptic

    synoptic Member

    Feb 21, 2003
    Huntsville, tx
    If I remember my criminology classes correctly, the FBI gets its statistical information from analyzing data voluntarily submitted to them by local law enforcement agencies. Thus, not all crimes are reported and while providing a reference point they are not very accurate. Her numbers seem WAY off anyways...
  8. Dave R

    Dave R Senior Member

    Dec 26, 2002
    The statistic she quotes is a severe distortion derived from several sifferent statistics. For example, suicides vs. presence or absence of guns in the home. They then assume that the firearms caused all the suicides.

    Here's a sanity check. Dept. of Justice reports 1.5 million defensive uses of firearms in a year (see earlier post).

    If you REALLY are 50 times more likely to be shot by your own gun than to thwart a crime, then there would have to be 75 million people a year killed by their own gun. Obviously, that is not true.

    I second guncite.com as a good source for "ammo".
  9. English John

    English John New Member

    Mar 16, 2003
    Logic v. Emotion

    Facts don't mean a d--- thing, she is working off emotion. Her ideas are OK,......... for her. Ask her if she would like to live your life style? Then ask her why you should live hers? The best part of Freedom is freedom of choice. Now, if she wants to restrict YOUR freedom, that's another story. Also, do a search on 40 reasons for gun control. John
  10. pytron

    pytron Member

    Dec 27, 2002
    Seattle, WA
    I think the 50x argument is not really from the FBI, but rather the Kellerman study. Check out this article refuting the claims of that study:

    Evaluating the "43 times" fallacy

  11. Standing Wolf

    Standing Wolf Member in memoriam

    Dec 24, 2002
    Idahohoho, the jolliest state
    Attempting to reason with leftists is like wrestling with pigs: the pigs don't like it, and you're just going to get all muddy.
  12. Slotback

    Slotback Member

    Dec 24, 2002
    You can also remind her that governments in this world have a wonderful record with disarmed populations. Nazi Germany, Cambodia, China, Uganda, etc. et al, ad nauseum
  13. Acolyte

    Acolyte New Member

    Dec 27, 2002
    Free State Wyoming
  14. JohnKSa

    JohnKSa Senior Member

    Jan 1, 2003
    DFW Area
    She's misquoting the stat.

    It goes something like.

    It's more likely that your or a family member will be killed by a gun you own than it is that you will use the gun to kill an attacker.

    Stated that way, it is true, but still misleading.

    The first statistic depends on using suicides (esp teen suicides) stats to pad out the "you or a family member will be killed" part of the statement.

    The second statistic is tremendously restrictive since the VAST majority of defensive gun uses don't even involve firing the gun, let alone killing someone with it.

    Sort of like saying: Bull riding is safer than being an accountant since more accountants die every year than bull riders.

    It leaves out a lot of important information that's relevant to the issue.
  15. Elmer Snerd

    Elmer Snerd Member

    Jan 8, 2003

    CDC Mortality Reports, searchable by year, age, method, intent, area, etc: http://webapp.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/mortrate.html.

    Unintentional firearm deaths of children up to age 10 in 2000: 41.
    Unintentional Drownings as above: 801.
    Unintentional Motor Vehicle deaths: 1752.
    Residential fire deaths: 505.
    Firearm homicides: 99.
    Non-firearm homicides: 771.
    Remember, these stats only go to age 10.

    Emphasize that this data is from the Center for Disease Control, not an "extremist pro-gun lobby militia extremist gun nut terroristswhojustwannakillchilldrrennn" site.
    It might help to mention that NCIPC, a division of CDC, was smacked by Congress for spending tax dollars on ANTI-gun research.

    Show her this about MMM just for yuks:

  16. MAKOwner

    MAKOwner Member

    Dec 28, 2002
    Just look at it this way, the Justice Department has it at 533,000 and change crimes committed with guns in 2001, and 1.5 million defensive uses at least.

    The 50 times more likely crap is most definitely not a FBI statistic, and is basically a complete fabrication with the tricks they did to reach that number...
  17. Camel

    Camel Member

    Dec 24, 2002
    Wherever there is free food and good conversation.
    I found this very enlightening

    Gun Facts
  18. Don Gwinn

    Don Gwinn Moderator Emeritus

    Dec 21, 2002
    Virden, IL
    You are attempting to wrestle with a pig. Forget it. Just tell her to bring in a hard copy of her statistics. Until she does, cut her off every time she tries to talk to you about guns.

    If she brings something in, THEN you pick it apart. But if you do it without the written word in front of you she'll simply backpedal and change the supposed "facts" over and over. You'll never get anywhere.
  19. enichols

    enichols Member

    Dec 25, 2002
    Pasadena, CA
    All of the above suggestions are good. I don't mean to nitpick, but:
    More Guns, Less Crime is by John Lott.
    Gary Kleck wrote Point Blank: Guns and Violence in America

    Good luck with the anti. Usually sticking to logic, facts and reason works well in refuting them, and all the previous suggestions have given you good ammunition (no pun intended) to use in your debates.

  20. Silver Bullet

    Silver Bullet Senior Member

    Dec 24, 2002
    It's not about home defense, anyway; it's about being able to respond to a tyrannical government.

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