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Hey, Jim March Did You Cause This? - CA

Discussion in 'Legal' started by Rumpled, Nov 21, 2004.

  1. Rumpled

    Rumpled Well-Known Member

  2. Jim March

    Jim March Well-Known Member

    First, I don't think I had THAT much personal effect on this. Maybe a very smaller percent of the increase but I doubt more than 5%. Much more is from the fact that there's simply more interest in CCW due to it's success in other states; we have more rural issuance than ever.


    How long have they been publishing this data online?!

    I have the 1997 version of that data, which is what this page was built from:


    I got those numbers from the time in 2000 when Los Gatos PD "threw up on" Chuck Michel by taking every single document in the office with the word "gun" in it and throwing it Chuck's way in response to a CCW PRAR.

    Tomorrow I'll plug the MUCH fresher numbers in to the source spreadsheet and we'll see what happens.


    PS: looking at it more carefully, I have serious questions about it's accuracy. Look at Marin fr'instance - what the hell is up with 2001?

    Typo. Gotta be. But is that the only one? :scrutiny:
  3. Rumpled

    Rumpled Well-Known Member

    I didn't think that you issued or applied for those CCW's, I just thought that your PRAR's might have influenced the publishing of this data.
    Yeah, that Marin # is very funny.
  4. Gray Peterson

    Gray Peterson Well-Known Member

    Notice that it only goes by county. Meaning they count both licenses issued by cities and the county sheriff. I think Marin may be explained as a chief of police issuing a bunch of licenses one year.
  5. Jim March

    Jim March Well-Known Member

    Rumpled, I understood what you meant. I stand by what I said.

    Lonnie, the Marin numbers are impossible for two reasons:

    1) Permits are good for two years now (starting in 1999). So a ONE year spike is impossible unless very unusual things happened, such as a chief opening up a "permit mill" as they used to call Isleton, then getting fired and the next chief doing mass revokations.

    2) IF that many permits got cut in Marin, we'd know about it. Somebody would have freaked out.

    Come to think, Marin really doesn't have any one big dominant city that could account for that sort of volume in a single year. They've got a lot of little towns...it's not like, say, Sacramento County dominated by SacCity, or Kern with Bakersfield.

    So no. I'd bet good money that's a typo.


    Butte's numbers look screwy too. Not as obvious but...fishy.
  6. deej

    deej Well-Known Member

    Do these numbers represent CCWs issued per year, or CCWs outstanding per year?

    For example, if county X is listed as "500" CCWs for the year 2000, does that mean in 2000 there were 500 total valid CCWs, or does that mean that 500 CCWs were issued in 2000 alone?

    (With the understanding that CCWs are generally good for 2 years for commoners, 3-4 years for others.)
  7. Jim March

    Jim March Well-Known Member

    I was wondering that too.

    I *think* it's permits in effect each year, not issued.

    The link description would help. Rumpled, WHERE DID YOU FIND THIS, DAMMIT? Sorry, but it's really freakin' important. You've deep-linked down to a PDF file but we don't have the descriptor text for the link.

  8. Jim March

    Jim March Well-Known Member

    AhHA! Found it:



    No description at all, other than that it JUST NOW popped up on their site (Nov. 19th 04).

    <scratches head>

    It *could* be connected to my PRARs?

    Note that back in 2002, DOJ said I couldn't have this data. :scrutiny:

    And they knew I'd be interested in it, as Rossi has seen my "racial/county analysis sheet".

    So here it is.

    <scratches head>

    Now...just what are they up to here?
  9. LAR-15

    LAR-15 Well-Known Member

    Is Marin County where Sean Penn got his CCW permit?
  10. Jim March

    Jim March Well-Known Member

    Re: Sean Penn: yeah, city of Ross. Which had two permits out. Town's population is about 2,000. No way THEY fired up a "permit mill" that big.
  11. Car Knocker

    Car Knocker Well-Known Member

    I find it hard to believe that CA has issued over a half-million permits in the last 14 years. These numbers just don't feel tight.
  12. Jim March

    Jim March Well-Known Member

    No, they definately have NOT issued half a mil permits.

    The way I read this is, each year's total is the number of permits that were "in effect" that year.

    In other words, the total new permits, plus the total of existing from the previous year.

    That would mean there's somewhere just north of 45k permits in effect today.

    THAT I can believe.
  13. bg

    bg Well-Known Member

    This is kinda reachin', but can't a citizen use the Freedom of Information Act
    to find out exactly how many permits were issured by city, county and state ?
  14. redhead

    redhead Well-Known Member

    I think that the Freedom of Information Act applies only to federal government agencies, not city, county state. That's where the PRAR (Public Records Act) comes in.
  15. Rumpled

    Rumpled Well-Known Member

    That's kinda what Jim March is doing now, just not all of them. There are a LOT of agencies that can issue. Totalling them all up would be a lot of requests to make. You'd have all 58 Sheriff's Dept and every city Police agency, however many hundreds (thousands?) of those agencies throughout the state.
  16. Jim March

    Jim March Well-Known Member

    Right, the California Public Records Act is the local state "version" of the FOIA, except that a Request (final "R" in "PRAR") under the PRA is more potent.

    And yes, that's what I'd doing right now, backed by CCRKBA and SAF:


    Understand that we ARE going after the totals of every permit out there, the permitholder's name, the issuing agency, etc. Absolutely. We're doing that by making one of the PRARs out to the California DOJ. They have a statewide computerized database of this stuff, has everything but "good cause" data. We want that database, with stuff like home address, phone number, social sec. number etc. stripped out (aka "redacted").

    The data DOJ lacks is the "good cause" details, and denials. For those, I'm spot-checking 25 local agencies.

    But I'll have names and agencies off the DOJ's records, for cross-referencing purposes first (make sure the local data is complete) and for the first comprehensive statewide gender/racial analysis ever, organized by city, county and state.

  17. rkt88edmo

    rkt88edmo Active Member

    Just looking at the trends, in addition to Marin 2001, the numbers don't follow the trend for Calaveras 2000-2001-2002 --- 568-42-658

    Other than that some of the counties bounce around, but don't look like typos.

    Gotta love the Carona Effect in OC
  18. Hawkmoon

    Hawkmoon Well-Known Member

    Could be the data was reported by different clerks each year one of whom didn't understand the instructions. The two large numbers may be total permits in force, and the 42 might be the number of permits issued that year.
  19. bobby68

    bobby68 Well-Known Member

    Why is San Luis Obispo offset?

    Since i am from San Luis Obispo (SLO), i took notice of the totals in my county. But can anyone suggest why the other counties above and below SLO are scrunched up to provide more white space around SLO?

    I am just curious but i'm also wondering if there is something special about the county that might be important if i ever wanted to get a permit for my wife or myself.

    Thank you for pointing out the information

  20. Jim March

    Jim March Well-Known Member

    <scratches head>

    I know of no reason SLO county would be singled out. And the numbers don't look at all surprising, they match the feedback I've gotten on that sheriff plus that county's population.

    I think it's just a DOJ oddity.


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