Price of Factory Ammo

[fatelk]

An older guy where I work told me years ago that he used to cast lead and had about 3,000 pounds he had melted into ingots. I heard he was moving recently from property he had leased for 30+ years and had to clean up. I asked him about the lead and he told me I was too late, he had just sold it to the local scrap yard for 15 cents a pound! I missed out on a lifetime supply and then some!

As to the price of metals affecting the price of ammo, it's easy to assume that's the #1 big reason, but the math says otherwise. When you look at the trends in copper, lead, and zinc over the last couple years, this can only account for about two to four cents a round increase (depending on the size of the round). That adds about a dollar to a box of 50 9mm's. The actual increase seems to have been at least double that. I suspect demand accounts for the rest, whether it's the war or people getting paranoid and buying 25 cases to stock the garage.

As to the cost of fuel affecting the cost of ammo, why hasn't everything else gone up as much? Ammo isn't the only thing shipped across the country. It would have some effect but very minimal.

 

[Creeping Incrementalism]

fatelk, are you sure the price of lead hasn't insreased substantially over the past two years? According to post #5, it has increased 5X over the past 5-6 years, so I think a large portion of that could be over the past two years. Most of the weight of most cartridges is lead, so it would be the overwhelming factor.

Someone also mentioned inelastic demand for ammo. I think it might even have negative elasticity for a large segment of the shooting population. The price of ammo seems to jump at least every six months (if not more often, based on the "FACTORY PRICE INCREASE SOON" emails I get on the Ammoman.com email list). So many people buy a large amount at the current inflated prices, because they know it will only increase in the future. Once people need more ammo, or just get worried about further price increases, and so they keep buying more and more at higher and higher prices.

I wonder where the ammo prices will top out. I suspect there might even be an ammo "crash". Ammo gets to the point shooters throw their hands up in disgust, and just start shooting less (or concentrating on low-volume, high-accuracy shooting, and have finally stocked up to a satisfactory amount). As the factories are forced to drop their prices, people delay ammo purchases because ammo keeps getting cheaper and cheaper.

One argument I don't fully believe is the indistrialization of India/China et al. The 3rd world and former Com-Bloc have been rapidly industrializing for at least 15 years now. Why is everything going through the roof in only the past 2-3 years?

 

[Ala Dan]

Yep, for instance when I started in the firearms business in Sept of '04,
lead shot was $18.95 per 25lb bag; today its $32.95, and may not stop
here~!

 

[scurtis_34471]

The only way to beat inflation is for your earnings growth to outpace the cost of living growth. The problem is that it is nearly impossible to do that on a consistent basis. Even with rapid career advancement, you eventually run out of promotions. At the very least, the periods between promotions tend to stretch out the further up the ladder you go. At some point, we all reach a place where we are lucky just to tread water and we really aren't even doing that anymore because retirement benefits are non-existent for most people, health costs go up every year and we actually make less in absolute dollars than our parent's generation did. Did I mention that we also work a lot more hours and get less time off?

 

[fatelk]

fatelk, are you sure the price of lead hasn't insreased substantially over the past two years?

The price of lead has most definitely increased, dramatically. I only meant to say that the value of the lead content is a very small portion of the cost of the round. For example, a 9mm bullet contains somewhere around 100 grains of lead (125 FMJ). At .20/lb, that is just over 1/4 cent. At .95 cents/lb, it is about a penny more. The rise in the cost of lead is responsible for an increase of about a half dollar a box in the price of 9mm, as an example. The increase in the cost of copper has slightly more of an effect, because it is a more expensive metal but has increased less, percentage wise.

 

[lionking]

I have hit 9 Walmarts in 4 days,all have pistol ammo...no .223 nowhere.Yes its gone up yet the value packs are still within reason.Its rifle ammo that's scarce everywhere,or at extreme prices.Why is this?I hear variuos opinions Im not sure.

Rant?One thing to pay higher but I've been trying to get health insurance and just because I had a melanoma 5 years ago,cut it off end of story and Im healthy and still rather young ,every insurance company has rejected me.

Gas...I see various opinions on that,but in the last 2 years it has fluctuated so wildly that I can only see profiteering happening,much like homeowners insurance.When customers and employees are hurting in a certain industry,how can it be that the CEO boasts a record profit for the year?When times are good everybody should profit and when times are bad everyone should feel the heat.

 

[heypete]

I have hit 9 Walmarts in 4 days,all have pistol ammo...no .223 nowhere.Yes its gone up yet the value packs are still within reason.Its rifle ammo that's scarce everywhere,or at extreme prices.Why is this?I hear variuos opinions Im not sure.

I'd propose the following:
- There are only a very few major pistol calibers: 9mm, .40 S&W, .45 ACP, .38 Special, and .357 Mag come to mind. Sure there are others, but I'd say that these five calibers make up the bulk of centerfire pistol ammo produced and consumed in the US.
- There are a huge number of major rifle calibers: .270, .30-30, .223, .308, .30-06, 7mm Mag, .300 Win Mag, and so on. Rifles are much more commonly used in hunting.
- Manufacturers have a limited number of production lines, and while they can dedicate a few lines to making 9mm, .40, and .45 all the time due to their popularity, they might not have that flexibility with rifle calibers due to the number of calibers they have to produce.
- There's a large and growing number of .223 rifles on the market (AR-15s, improved Mini-14s, .223 pistols, etc.), a growing number of shooters using these calibers, more competitions, training courses, and activities other than just target shooting involving such rifles. Shooters readily consume large quantities of .223 (the rounds-per-year-per-person of .300 Win Mag or 7mm Mag are likely to be quite a bit less). This, combined with people stocking up when shortages and price hikes seem to be occuring or soon to occur (rumors of impending bans), contributes to greater demand than the manufacturers can produce.

My advice? Find a good price with an online vendor that does backorders, and place an order for a large amount of ammo. If they don't do backorders, see if you can get notified when the item gets in stock. Be sure to get brass-cased, reloadable ammo and buy the necessary gear to reload. Sure saves money and helps ride out periods of high demand and shortages.

 

[Dorryn]

Inflation relative to the overall "value" of the dollar isnt really what concerns me. I expect prices to rise, gas, cost of ammo, etc. My concern is that rising ammunition prices creates a greater risk of making shooting a sport that only the wealthy or upper middle class can afford to engage in. Remember, being proficient requires practice, and practice requires frequent trips to the range.

I already spend more on ammo than I do on food, and I only can afford the range fees once or twice a month...

 

[Cato the Younger]

I spend more on ammo than on food also.

I spend about $24/week on food.
I spend around $25/ week on Ammo.

This is why I have begun to get into reloading, so that I can practice shooting more, in order to increase my proficiency, while keeping costs down.

100 rds of 38 Special cost $22 at my local shop.
100 rounds of 357 Mag cost $38 at my local shop.

To reload, with lead bullets, costs around $11/ 100 for 38, and $13/100 for 357 mag.

I try to shoot 200 rounds a week out of my revolver. It takes alot of practice to master DA shooting, I have been told- thus I shoot alot. Also, I have found reloading to be enjoyable and relaxing.

Just my $.02.

 

[Malone LaVeigh]

Thanks for the update, folks. I stocked up on ammunition for most of my guns about 9 months ago, mostly Brit, Guatemalan and SA milsurp for the .223 and .308's, Russian for the AK and SKS, and Miwall reloads for the handguns. I've been busy getting settled into a farm lately and haven't been shooting in a while, so I guess I've been inadvertently conserving.

Phaetos, I'm in shock over your reality check on the 7.62x39. The last boxes I bought at Academy last summer cost about $2.50.

 

[Tin Gizel]

In fear of the price of White Box Winchester increasing at my local wally world, i picked up 4k rounds today @ 14.56/100

.357 sig was $18.12/per 50!!!!!!!!

.45 was $26.97/100