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Strange Days Indeed

Discussion in 'General Gun Discussions' started by CWL, Dec 16, 2008.

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  1. CWL

    CWL Well-Known Member


    We certainly are living in strange times. I am seeing both a "gun run" because of Obama fears -yet I'm also seeing firearms retailers and dealers in trouble because of this Recession we are in. Some guns can't stay on the shelves yet other fine firearms are being deeply discounted. Online guys are barraging me with some incredible offers for guns and accessories.

    I'm wondering if we'll be short a few more gunmakers by the time everything sorts out 1-2 years down the road.

    Can't really figure this one out.

    Anyone have an opinion?
  2. indoorsoccerfrea

    indoorsoccerfrea Well-Known Member

    my guess: cheaper good quality guns are getting bought. people are afraid of a ban/more taxes and want guns but cannot afford the nicer ones due to money issues.
  3. Tyris

    Tyris member

    Be specific. What are you seeing flying off the shelf, and what are you seeing deeply discounted?

    My personal anecdotal gut feel says AR15s along with anything black and semi-auto are flying off the shelf while walnut and blue bolt action Remchesterbys are not.

  4. JImbothefiveth

    JImbothefiveth Well-Known Member

    May also be because a $10,000 English best gun is less likely to get banned than, say, an AR-15
  5. starboard

    starboard Well-Known Member

    The long-term side-effect of dragging the people through the deflation/inflation cycle that rapidly concentrates wealth in the hands of the wealthy (the only ones with deep enough pockets to buy assets when everyone else is desperate to sell), is that lots more people will be dependent on the state for basic needs, with gun/ammo budgets withering away along with our liberties.

    Currently, as with the competing deflationary (shrinking economy) and inflationary (money printing / issuing of Treasuries / prime rate down to nothing) forces in the economy, the threat of Obama's socialist gun grab is competing against financial doom hanging over the middle class.

    If the economy nosedives (we aren't there yet!) before the bans come, the market will probably be flooded with cheap guns as the desperate sell. If the bans come quickly and stuff is grandfathered in, whatever is sold will likely fetch a premium.

    I am expecting hyperinflation and USD collapse (against commodities and the yen in particular) in a year, as the government (after allowing the plutocrats to gorge at the bottom of the deflationary dip) will print as much money as necessary from entering a deflationary Great Depression 2.
  6. Bubba613

    Bubba613 member

    At least you have a positive attitude about things.
    Back to planet earth and the OP:
    Even if the unemployment rate jumps to 10% that still means 90% of the people are working. Currently there is a gun buying mania driven by fear of the next administration and its action. My prediction is that long about Feb or Mar when it is apparent that Obama will not be assuming dictatorial powers and sending the JBTs on a house to house, people will calm down about it and supply and demand will return to normal.
    Guns tend to be steady sellers. In down times people buy them out of fear of losing what they have. Of course the mix is a little different. So fewer top end guns and what I would call "play toys", e.g. the Ruger Charger. But Rem 870s, Mossberg 500s, Glocks, Smith revolvers etc will all continue to sell fine.
    The only casualty I see coming is Colt. But that has less to do with the economy and more to do with their own mismanagement.
  7. SSN Vet

    SSN Vet Well-Known Member


    When the total of Federal revenues comes up short of what is required to service just the interest on our massive (and ever increasing) Federal debt, the politicos will be left with three choices....

    1. Massive cuts in government services .... not politically tenable ... ain't gonna happen.

    2. Massive increases in Federal taxes (across the board) .... not politically tenable ... ain't gonna happen.

    3. Shift the printing presses into warp speed and just dilute the currency.

    Option 3 is the only one that our spineless politicians (voted into office by a spineless electorate) will ever go with...


    the result WILL be hyper inflation on everything you need (milk, bread, meat, etc...)

    along with falling prices on everything you don't need (a new laptop, a new car, a new boat, a new toy).

    fuel is a wild card.... the shrinking economy (no money for fun driving/flying/boating, etc...) is tanking fuel demand and prices. But of course, our 'friends' in the middle east are already clamoring to slash production to prop up oil.

    Time will tell....

    My personal strategy hasn't changed...

    1. cut almost all discretionary spending.
    2. sell assets I can no longer afford to service.
    3. pay down/off debt.
    4. acquire assets that enable me to do for myself (I'm talking land and small scale farming).

    Time will tell if these actions are truly necessary, but I doubt I'll ever regret them.
  8. Yes, I noticed that. There are still good deals to be had for the used guns that runs aren't being made on (anything but semi-autos rifles & pistols). And oddly enough, sometimes even on guns in those categories, as dealers take them in trade and want to re-sell them quickly for a quick buck.
  9. Sinixstar

    Sinixstar member

  10. CoRoMo

    CoRoMo Well-Known Member

    The guns that are feared to be banned by this next administration, handguns and black rifles, are being bought up, but sporting rifles, shotguns, and the 'fine firearms' you mentioned are not getting the attention because people are spending their money on the ones feared to become illegal soon.

    My own personal example is that I've been saving for a nice waterfowler 12ga. but... about a month before the election, I decided that... "If Barry wins, I'm spending this money on an AR15 rather than an Extrema2" and that is the plan. I doubt Barry's first crack at our guns will eliminate my chances at an Extrema2, maybe I'm wrong, but that is the choice I'm making because this might be my only chance to get what is legal today.
  11. Tyris

    Tyris member

    Besides, it is certainly more difficult to hit a duck with a glock 9mm, thus it is more sporting. :evil:

    duck vs 223 will have some interesting results.

    Now, regarding those that believe that we're headed for hyper-inflation, ala zimbabwe or wiemar republic-- why is this not reflected in the bond market, or the spot price of gold? Naturally as the value of the dollar goes to zero or is anticipated to goto zero, people are going to hedge in gold or a stable foreign currency. I aint seeing it. Gold isn't $2000/oz. Swiss franc hasnt shot to the moon.

    Governments survive deflation and depression -- they do not survive hyperinflation (wiemar -> germany, ww2; zimbabwe -> heh, no one will notice). Our creditors would stop buying our bonds if they got a whiff of printing. The chinese, japanese, russians and arabs would have to be out of their minds to buy our debt and then expect us to repay it with devalued currency. Our bonds would be worthless overnight and we'd have failed bond auctions, the government would go bankrupt instantly.

  12. LightningJoe

    LightningJoe Well-Known Member

    I suspect the actual hyperinflation is still a ways off (but I think it will come). First, they have to burn through all the money they can confiscate and/or borrow. That will take time. We're farther along right now than I expected us to be in 2008, so I may be a bit too optimistic about the time-frame. Still, I'd be surprised if we got to the hyperinflation/failed-state stage in less than 30 years.

    PS bury those rifles and hi-cap mags if you have to; I'll suspect you'll need them eventually.
  13. LightningJoe

    LightningJoe Well-Known Member

    The thing is, this won't work anyway. We're almost certainly on the far side of the Laffer curve and have been for decades. Raising taxes will only decrease revenues. Getting more money by taxing income more heavily (across the board at least) won't work. That's why the national debt is so high. The only way they've been able to get more money has been by borrowing.

    But there's a limit to that and they may be close to finding it. How long will people continue to lend money to the US government? Well, I suspect we'll find out.

    When they can't borrow enough anymore, they'll have to take money from wherever they can find it. That's where your 401K, IRA, and private pension will go. After that's gone, that's when they'll be face-to-face with the hard logic of Socialism--no money left to borrow or steal. Nothing left to do but print money while they get their families and as much of their stuff as they can out of the country.

    That's when all hell will break loose.
  14. LightningJoe

    LightningJoe Well-Known Member

    Hey, I forecasted 30 years. A pessimist would've said 10.
    Last edited: Dec 18, 2008
  15. Titan6

    Titan6 member

    Lots of fear out there I see.

    Not sure if the fear is about gun control or the economy.

    For one the outlook is bleak and the other is just downright bad. When the president's economic adviser goes on TV and says that the trillions of dollars in debt is a problem for another day you can't help but worry for your children... someone has to.

    When the president states publicly that his policy will be to pursue the banning of guns that should be a cause for alarm.

    But all of this is just lost voices in the wind.
  16. MIL-DOT

    MIL-DOT member

    Much needed thread. I'm OK on guns and ammo, so after considerable research, I whole-heartedly recommend buying gold/silver,fuel,and food.
    As the saying goes,"you can hear me now, or listen to me later".:D
  17. Tyris

    Tyris member

  18. NetJunkie

    NetJunkie Well-Known Member

    Why pay down debt? Debt is a very good thing going in to hyper-inflation. Your pay will go up. Your debt won't. If it's as bad as you claim you may be able to pay your house off with a week's salary one day. Why pay it off now?
  19. simple_rule

    simple_rule Active Member

    i fear what people will do to one another if things get bad, no amount of guns or preperation can prevent much of that. sometimes it just comes down to statistics, if half of us die, half of us die. alot will be stupid but many will just be unlucky
  20. wyocarp

    wyocarp Well-Known Member

    I think I'll just worry about today. Tomorrow will have it's own set of problems. But, that's nothing new.

    I'll just keep buying guns and ammo (if I could find it). Got a decent price on one this past weekend and sent money off for another today that I got raped on (oh well).
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