Quantcast
How bad will the current gun industry slowdown get? - THR
THR  

Go Back   THR > Social Situations > General Gun Discussions

Welcome to THR
You are currently viewing our site as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions, articles and access our other FREE features. By joining our free community you will have, access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, and access many other special features. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!


If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please visit the help section.

View Poll Results: How bad will the current gun industry slowdown get?
We ain't seen nothing yet, small companies will fail, big companies will hurt 21 11.29%
Gun sales won't keep rising, but they won't fall off a cliff either 125 67.20%
Sentiment towards guns has changed. More gun sales for the foreseeable future. 40 21.51%
Voters: 186. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old August 7, 2014, 05:54 PM   #1
atek3
Member
 
 
Join Date: March 5, 2003
Posts: 2,980
How bad will the current gun industry slowdown get?

Based on this interesting thread from last month I wanted to take a survey.

By any metric, the gun industry has seen a torrid boom over the last 10 years (and especially over the last 3).

Smith and Wesson generated $236.6M in sales in Fiscal Year 2007 (the last year before the credit crisis). In Fiscal Year 2014, they did $626.6M (a 165% increase). Over the next twelve months, Smith and Wesson is expected to sell $597M, a decrease of 5%.

Given all the discussion on this forum and elsewhere:
  • Customers have maxed out their credit cards
  • Everyone that wants an AR-15 already owns two
  • The threat of another AWB is over

Is it possible that S&W (and Ruger for that matter) will see a drop in sales far worse than 5%?

atek3
atek3 is offline  
Old August 7, 2014, 06:01 PM   #2
MikeS.
Member
 
 
Join Date: September 14, 2004
Location: Mid-Atlantic region
Posts: 356
Middle of the road

I figured a 5 to 10% drop, nothing drastic. The next crisis is just around the road. Another whack job will do a mass shooting and things will skyrocket through the roof once again.

Fortunately firearms, ammo and most reloading supplies are back around normal supplies. Powder especially hand gunpowder is the big exception from what I'm seeing. As well as .22LR...
__________________
MikeS.
PM of Triluminar Lodge #117 GL of WV.
Noble of Osiris Shrine, Bethesda #16 R.A.M
A.&A.S.R 32*, Tall Cedars of Lebanon
MikeS. is offline  
Old August 7, 2014, 06:03 PM   #3
akarguy
Member
 
 
Join Date: May 10, 2014
Posts: 46
Real question is... When will the .22LR panic end?
akarguy is offline  
Old August 7, 2014, 06:10 PM   #4
BSA1
Member
 
 
Join Date: April 20, 2011
Posts: 2,694
Even so they are still ahead. S&W has said they expect to make up their lost sales in California with increase in the sale of revolvers.

Remember that the sale of guns, accessories & ammunition is being politically driven. Gun control on a Federal level is d.o.a. but restrictions in some States are possible (or likely).

We know that Obama intends to use Executive Action to bypass Congress and advance his agenda. After the November elections there is always the possibility he will use Executive Actions to restrict / ban firearms, accessories and ammunition. Remember he isn't running for office anymore.
BSA1 is offline  
Old August 7, 2014, 06:21 PM   #5
barnbwt
Member
 
 
Join Date: August 14, 2011
Posts: 3,335
Any company that was deficit financing its operations during this boomtime, deserves to get whacked on the downswing. By which I mean companies whose business model was irresponsibly based upon sales remaining as peaked as they were recently (considering all the new names that came out in the last two years, there's bound to be a lot of closures)

TCB
barnbwt is offline  
Old August 7, 2014, 06:32 PM   #6
AlexanderA
Member
 
 
Join Date: February 27, 2011
Location: Virginia
Posts: 2,113
The gun industry has certain inherent problems, most of which revolve around the nature of guns themselves. That is, guns seldom wear out, and they become obsolete very slowly. Therefore, unlike the car industry, there's no significant replacement market. Sales growth has to come from new shooters, or current owners who want to increase the number of guns they own.

Normally, these new shooters, etc., mean a steady but moderate demand for new guns. But the periodic buying panics, caused by threats of legislative restrictions, skew this normal market. People accelerate their planned buying, and then, when the panic passes, there's a vacuum in demand until the next panic. These crazy ups and downs mean that gun businesses cannot rationally plan their plant investment, production, buying, marketing, etc.

It's hard to see how even a well-run company can be profitable under these conditions.
AlexanderA is offline  
Old August 7, 2014, 06:32 PM   #7
FROGO207
Member
 
 
Join Date: December 7, 2008
Location: Mount Desert Island Maine
Posts: 4,903
Things are pretty up in the air still. I see a soft landing IF and that is a big IF we tail off as much as some think. Some will use the price fall as an excuse to stock up on more firearms as they can afford it. I estimate the number will be a good sized one WRT people who do this.
__________________
The west was not won with a registered gun!!
Don't let our government make us into outlaws
NRA Life Member.
FROGO207 is offline  
Old August 7, 2014, 06:33 PM   #8
Schwing
Member
 
 
Join Date: June 3, 2013
Location: Layton Utah
Posts: 1,007
I remember during the early stage of our most recent panic that people were grumbling and asking why many of the manufacturers were not exponentially ramping up production. You still hear this same grumbling about powder manufacturers and it is a common complaint about .22 production.

This is EXACTLY the reason why many of the manufacturers have not added new facilities and production lines. Those of us who have been shooting for decades have seen these panics before... Maybe not quite as bad as our most recent one but they have been pretty bad before. Manufacturers would not last long if they added facilities and staff to handle every peek in sales.

In the near future, I believe that everyone's pantry will be fully stocked with .22 ammo and powder. When that happens, sales will slump significantly and those producers who HAVE ramped up production, adding facilities and staff, will be cutting back to pre-panic levels.
__________________
God created man; Samuel Colt made them equal
Schwing is offline  
Old August 7, 2014, 06:43 PM   #9
blarby
Contributing Member
 
 
Join Date: February 25, 2011
Location: JC, Oregon
Posts: 4,298
There is a gun industry slowdown ?


There has been a lot of growth in gun-industry business of late.

A great number of them center around :

A.Profiteering
and
B. Fearmongering
and
C. Absolutely terrible "service"

The firms that will survive are those that produce quality products, provide fantastic customer service, and have realistic growth plans without unrealistic product claims.
__________________
$25 a year to keep The High Road on line AND block adds? Bargain!
Become a contributing member today!
http://www.thehighroad.org/payments.php

The Reloading section Pay it Forward thread. Here
blarby is offline  
Old August 7, 2014, 06:58 PM   #10
KF7LCE
Member
 
 
Join Date: July 5, 2012
Posts: 65
This slowdown won't last for long. People are going to go nuts as soon as Hillary declares that she's running for president, which will probably be shortly after midterms. Things might cool off for a while, but as soon as a few dire Gallup polls and a few choice sound bites come out in election season 2016, we'll be in another full blown banic. And for good reason.
KF7LCE is offline  
Old August 7, 2014, 07:24 PM   #11
Bobson
Member
 
 
Join Date: August 9, 2011
Location: Snohomish County, Washington
Posts: 2,939
Quote:
Originally Posted by KF7LCE View Post
This slowdown won't last for long. People are going to go nuts as soon as Hillary declares that she's running for president, which will probably be shortly after midterms. Things might cool off for a while, but as soon as a few dire Gallup polls and a few choice sound bites come out in election season 2016, we'll be in another full blown banic. And for good reason.
Agreed on all points.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OP
  • Customers have maxed out their credit cards.
  • Everyone that wants an AR-15 already owns two.
  • The threat of another AWB is over.
I disagree with the second and third points in this list, and I fail to see how the first point would be relevant even if it were true (and I don't believe it is).
__________________
More Christians have been executed by persecutors in the 20th century than the sum total of all those who were similarly persecuted in every past century, combined.

"As for me and my house, we will serve the LORD." - Joshua 24:15
Bobson is offline  
Old August 7, 2014, 07:37 PM   #12
KansasSasquatch
Member
 
 
Join Date: July 22, 2012
Location: LV county KS
Posts: 1,386
Most of the big manufacturers don't make most of their money from these panics. They make money off of military and government (local, state, and fed) contracts. They won't be raking in the money like they did during the panic, but they're going to survive. It's the small companies that have to be worries about sales dropping off. The ones who have been somewhat innovative, provide good quality products, and have good customer service will stick around.

I think that in a way the panics help those smaller companies. People who once weren't willing to be the test dummies become more willing to try their products. If they like those products word will get around that they're worth looking into. If the small companies continue to do good by their customers, the companies will find some level of success if they run their business properly. I know of a few companies in my state that took a chance durin the panic and it seems to be paying off for them. Most of their sales came from small forum advertising and word of mouth. But they're getting their names out their and their reputations are very good. In a few years they may be national brands, albeit probably still very small in comparison to the big companies.
KansasSasquatch is offline  
Old August 7, 2014, 07:50 PM   #13
BSA1
Member
 
 
Join Date: April 20, 2011
Posts: 2,694
KF7LCE,

Your comments are right on.

The only question you overlooked is how many of the whiners and complainers will NOT stock up when dealers, warehouses and stores are overstocked and offering good sale prices and will be back on THR and other forums crying about the shortages again?

Last edited by BSA1; August 7, 2014 at 09:14 PM.
BSA1 is offline  
Old August 7, 2014, 08:02 PM   #14
BSA1
Member
 
 
Join Date: April 20, 2011
Posts: 2,694
atek3,

I also disagree about everybody that wants a AR already owns two (or even one).

I don't. I was planning on buying a S&W Sport in 01/13 after Christmas was over. Well the Banic put that on hold. I am tossing around the idea of buying one later this winter or first of next year depending on how much of a raise and overtime I get from my employer.

While your interest seems to be centered around AR's there is a lot of other guns to choose from and demand for them.
BSA1 is offline  
Old August 7, 2014, 08:29 PM   #15
Ragnar Danneskjold
Member
 
 
Join Date: February 1, 2007
Location: Arlington, Republic of Texas
Posts: 3,700
Quote:
Real question is... When will the .22LR panic end?
I don't think it will. Not for a very very long time at least. They've realized that they can sell .22lr at 500% of it's price only a few years ago and still sell out 100% of their inventory every time. They're not going to let go of that any time soon. And the cycle is self-perpetuating. The high price makes people think that there's still a shortage, the shortage drives the price up, so the hoarders keep buying all they can thinking that they have to get as much as they can since the high price and the shortage (both things they created) mean it won't be around much longer.

Once every single person who even wants to hoard a million rounds of .22lr has that million, then maybe the lack of selling will cause the price to drop and get us back to a normal sales paradigm. Until then, $50-$100 rounds per box is the name of the game. If you can find it at all.
__________________
Don't like police? Move to Somalia.

The Democrat party, The Media, and the GOP. Three heads of the same political Cerberus.
Ragnar Danneskjold is offline  
Old August 7, 2014, 09:04 PM   #16
Sauer Grapes
Member
 
 
Join Date: February 19, 2009
Location: S.E. PA.
Posts: 1,030
Not everyone that wanted an AR has one. Check off one more though.
I figured the prices aren't going any lower. I bought 2 for what I would have for 1 a year ago.

Isn't gun ownership rising? I see a lot of new people with their first handgun at our club.
__________________
I have all the guns I need, just not all that I think I need.
Sauer Grapes is offline  
Old August 7, 2014, 10:05 PM   #17
Walkalong
Moderator
 
 
Join Date: November 20, 2006
Location: Alabama
Posts: 35,696
Quote:
Customers have maxed out their credit cards
Some.

Quote:
Everyone that wants an AR-15 already owns two
Doubtful.

Quote:
The threat of another AWB is over
No such thing. The antis are always looking for the next opportunity. No time before 2019 I imagine, but never say never.
__________________
Do you ever wonder why nobody ever robs the bag man for the mob? No, you don't.

"Oh bother" said Pooh, as he chambered another round. Author unknown.
Walkalong is offline  
Old August 7, 2014, 10:16 PM   #18
justice06rr
Member
 
 
Join Date: October 7, 2011
Location: Florida
Posts: 1,305
It will probably dip a little more towards Thanksgiving, and pickup a little bit when demand goes up around christmas time when people will buy again--firearm related items included.

Quote:
Real question is... When will the .22LR panic end?
Its not really panic, but more so hoarding and flipping.

I've asked a question on a local forum if people are still seeing bricks of 22lr locally. Most in large cities don't, but those in rural areas do. Which means that the larger populated areas still have people buying up all the 22lr available on the shelf although the panic is over.
justice06rr is offline  
Old August 7, 2014, 10:21 PM   #19
CLP
Member
 
 
Join Date: September 21, 2010
Posts: 461
I think the outcome of the midterm elections will be a factor in gun sales in the near term, but we'll potentially see another huge surge in panic buying pending the results of the '16 elections.
CLP is offline  
Old August 7, 2014, 10:25 PM   #20
hso
Moderator
 
 
Join Date: January 3, 2003
Location: 0 hrs east of TN
Posts: 39,132
They have to. The boom is just that, a temporary rapid growth based on popular demand and not on any innovation. That has a curve that goes up and comes back down. No surprises there.
__________________
SAF Life Member/NRAILA Contributor
******************
Please Read The Forum Rules

TheHighRoad exists to provide a higher grade of discussion than is found on some other gun forums so antis and undecideds can see that gun owners and RKBA advocates are not the reckless misanthropes they tell everyone we are. Personal attacks, group stereotyping, macho chest-thumping, and partisan hackery are low road and hurt all of us.
hso is offline  
Old August 8, 2014, 02:43 AM   #21
lxd55
Member
 
 
Join Date: April 1, 2014
Posts: 133
Quote:
Originally Posted by akarguy View Post
Real question is... When will the .22LR panic end?
from another thread here may give some insight.

http://www.chuckhawks.com/column92_a...n_shortage.htm
lxd55 is offline  
Old August 8, 2014, 07:55 AM   #22
HexHead
Member
 
 
Join Date: December 15, 2008
Location: TN
Posts: 2,162
Quote:
Originally Posted by akarguy View Post
Real question is... When will the .22LR panic end?
According to industry insiders, if only half the gun owners in America bought just one brick of .22lr, it would take the manufacturers 2 1/2 years just to catch up.
__________________
"If it's a miracle Colour Sergeant, it's a short chamber Boxer Henry, point 4-5 caliber miracle." (Chard)

"And a bayonet Sir! With some guts behind it!" (CS Bourne)
HexHead is offline  
Old August 8, 2014, 11:03 AM   #23
Hangingrock
Member
 
 
Join Date: March 10, 2010
Location: NC
Posts: 1,307
I have long maintained there is only so much disposable income. That said I could be wrong about the disposable income theory. If the panic/hysteria buying is the new normal then who knows what the future holds for the firearms industry and related businesses.
__________________
If there must be trouble, let it be in my day, that my child may have peace.
Hangingrock is offline  
Old August 8, 2014, 11:22 AM   #24
HRnightmare
Member
 
 
Join Date: July 30, 2014
Posts: 163
Quote:
Everyone that wants an AR-15 already owns two
The threat of another AWB is over
There are still PLENTY of people who want an AR and don't own one. I know about 10 people personally. There are always that group of people that wait until the last minute...Perfect example, look at a Home Depot or grocery store in FL the DAY BEFORE a hurricane is supposed to hit. When they had AT LEASt 3-4 days warning, probably more like a week...and not to mention its a threat every year.

The other part is ALOT of people who ran out and panick bought AR's and Glocks and AK's then realized that Sandy Hook induced panic is gone and they need the money more than the gun OR they just don't "need" the gun as much as they thought they did. Next panic (and there will be a next one) the same people will be flooding the gun shops to buy the same $1800 Olympic Arms and DPMS rifles.

The threat of an AWB is NOT OVER, its just that the media has focused on something else, like Kim Kardashian's ass, or Gaza or how everything is bush's fault. Feinstein and Brady and Pelosi and Bloomberg and there roaming band of followers are still out there fighting strong to push AWB's and similar. Wait until 2015 when presidential campaigns stary coming up and someone very liberal leads the polls like Clinton. Another AWB scare will come and panic buying will be the same as they were in 2007-2008.

OR wait until the next school shooting, or movie theater, or military base or political event AND all of the fear will be brought back up.

The threat is not over! It is NEVER over. It may not be as strong or as obvious but IT IS THERE! There are many who seek to take away those rights from us. they do not rest so we cannot rest!

Last edited by ugaarguy; August 8, 2014 at 12:02 PM. Reason: Language
HRnightmare is offline  
Old August 8, 2014, 11:43 AM   #25
Cee Zee
Member
 
 
Join Date: August 23, 2012
Posts: 1,779
Quote:
When will the .22LR panic end?
I've been able to buy lots of .22LR for months now. The price is still too high but there is .22 ammo around if you look for it. I just bought a brick last week.
Cee Zee is offline  
Reply

Tags
boom, bubble, economy, rgr, swhc


Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:24 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.6
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
vBulletin Optimisation by vB Optimise.
This site, its contents, Shooting Reviews, and its contents are Copyright (c) 2010-2013 Firearms Forum, Inc.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
Although The High Road has attempted to provide accurate information on the forum, The High Road assumes no responsibility for the accuracy of the information. All information is provided "as is" with all faults without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. Neither The High Road nor any of its directors, members, managers, employees, agents, vendors, or suppliers will be liable for any direct, indirect, general, bodily injury, compensatory, special, punitive, consequential, or incidental damages including, without limitation, lost profits or revenues, costs of replacement goods, loss or damage to data arising out of the use or inability to use this forum or any services associated with this forum, or damages from the use of or reliance on the information present on this forum, even if you have been advised of the possibility of such damages.