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Old February 28, 2015, 12:47 PM   #1
Onmilo
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Hoarding and pricing 'the little people' out of the market,,,

One thing I'll giveObama, he is the greatest gun and ammunition salesman of all time.
Scare them and they WILL buy!
Problem is what is happening among the less well heeled citizens of this great nation.
They simply aren't interested in buying guns, or ammo for that matter, because they have all but pushed out of the market by high prices and lack of affordable inventory.

Here in my part of Illinois there is no great shortage of ammunition and the big box stores are brimming with new guns.
Average Joe comes in, looks around, shakes his head and leaves.
.22 rimfire is THE most popular rifle and handgun cartridge here.
.223 and the big three pistols calibers follow close behind (.40-9mm-.45acp)

.22 rimfire is simply NOT available in quantity here & when it hits the shelves it is gone within hours.
That is supply and demand but the cost is high, 10 to 12 cents a round and the stuff isn't match grade, just basic rimfire blaster ammo.
So, people aren't buying new off the shelf .22s guns here.
They just aren't that desirable right now.

As far as the centerfire stuff goes, it's around.
Average price across the board for rifle ammo is a buck a round, caliber doesn't matter, it's a buck a shot.
Handgun ammo averages $35 for 50 rounds or 70 cents a pop.

At these prices, the average Joe shooter simply isn't shooting as much as it is placing a burden on already tight budgets.

As for new centerfire guns, believe it or not, AR15 rifles still sell here, the S&W rifles are very popular but I believe that is again due to pricing structure and not any testement to the overall quality of the product which I personally find lacking.

New centerfire handguns still sell fairly well here too, mainly because legal concealed carry finally came to Illinois and more and more people are getting in on a good thing.
Most popular are mini guns and women are making up more and more of the retail handgun buyers market.

What is troubling is once they get themselves qualified and begin packing, training and continued improvement seems to go out the window and the CCW weapon is treated the same as a pocket knife or all important i-Phone.
Something nice to have on hand but in the case of the gun, not necessarily ever needed...

Again, the high price of ammunition is much to blame for the lackluster attitudes.

The guys that are doing much shooting are generally league shotgun shooters.
Trap-Skeet-Sporting Clays are all popular here and shotgun ammo hasn't had the huge price increases the rifled gun ammo has been subject to.
Not yet anyway.

What does all this mean?
Nobody is quite sure yet, not even the market analysts.
Will Big Box Stores dry up and blow away?
Not likely but they may drop the selling of guns and ammunition as "Not economically feasible" due to low turn around and "No buyer demand".

Will the local gun shops dry up and blow away?
Good question.
Most of the shops that survived "The Purges" of the 90s and early 2000s were already wel estalished.
Many of the owners are getting on in years now and are simply tired of dealing with all the hassle and red tape.

What does seem to be thriving in my area?
Exactly what the Feds and our dear President were so worried about.
Trade among friends is common here and bartering for guns and ammo among known associates is a popular pastime.
No phone calls, no waiting periods, but we are all responsible and have our spiffy firearm owners ID and CCW cards and of course, we maintain our records of sale for ten years.

So, you were worried about a gun underground Mister Prezident.
You created it you idiot.
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Old February 28, 2015, 02:27 PM   #2
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I think all the money went into smartphones. I imagine people will be standing in line to buy the new Samsung Galaxy 6 at probably $200 a pop and a two year cell phone contract.

Shooting has never been a cheap sport. Even years ago, I restricted buying much 38spl for $10 a box or 357 mag for $12 a box. Don't care what anyone says, it is not cheap to go out shooting anymore and reloading may be the answer for some, but it takes a bit of investiment in materials, learning, and doing assuming you can find the brass, primers, bullets you want, and powder you want. You can't be an occasional shooter and make reloading "pay" again assuming that you are interested in the first place.

So, here we are in 2015 with centerfire ammo fairly plentiful again, but 22LR and 22 WMR ammo is difficult to find unless you order online and pay the shipping. Fortunately the target grade stuff is generally available and that has always been primarily a mail order item.

Last edited by 22-rimfire; March 1, 2015 at 11:03 AM.
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Old February 28, 2015, 10:48 PM   #3
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Reloading is not cheap anymore either. Powder, primers, bullets, and brass if you need it, have all gone up proportionally. Inflation is also a big factor. In the time that has passed since .22 was readily available at reasonable prices, everything else has gone up in price also.
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Old February 28, 2015, 11:22 PM   #4
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I was just complaining to my wife 15 minutes ago about the high price of ammo while looking through a catalog that showed up in the mail today. The cost of ammo has caused me to consider thinning out my gun collection because I have guns that have become safe queens due to the cost of their ammo.
OP is right though, Obama is the best salesman the industry ever had.
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Old February 28, 2015, 11:26 PM   #5
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OP is a bad shopper. Bulkammo.com has Blazer Brass 9mm for $0.24 per round and handguns have barely increased in price in the last 5 years. I know this because I bought a police trade in Sig p228 for $450 5 years ago and I just bought another one for the same price a few days ago; all online - as is the trend for shopping these days.

Also, OP is thinking like an average gun enthusiast instead of an average gun owner. The average gun owner buys a gun, takes it to the range, puts 50 rounds through it and that's it.
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Old February 28, 2015, 11:42 PM   #6
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Owning guns and shooting never has been cheap. 25 years ago my first handgun cost me close to a two week pay check. A box of ammo cost about 2.5 hours wage.
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Old March 1, 2015, 05:06 AM   #7
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Fortunately there seems to be a few 'geniuses' among us and manage to come up with a work-around to various shortages.

Case in point, bullet casting. Wheelweights are the unlikely hero for us enthusiasts, so when CA decided to ban them and various other states followed, someone said, "hey why not powdercoat pure lead". As wheelweights dry up, roof flashing and the like can be used in lieu of unobtanium. And so on.
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Old March 1, 2015, 07:59 AM   #8
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If people can afford to buy a smart phone, either outright or on a plan, then they can easily afford to buy a gun and shoot it.

If people have the money to spend on sodas and bottled water out of vending machines, they can easily afford to budget and buy a gun and shoot it.

If there's a lack of people buying .22 firearms because it's difficult to find .22 cheap ammunition and this is resulting in lower sales of .22 guns...then this creates what is known as a "buyer's market" in .22 firearms. Which means NOW is the smart time to be shopping around for .22 guns.

Buying guns and ammunition is a lot like dollar cost averaging...you do a little bit at a time, on a steady basis, all the time and it ain't so bad. That's the ticket!
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Old March 1, 2015, 08:56 AM   #9
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I reload just about everything I shoot, except .22LR. Yes it takes some time, and knowledge, but once you are set up you can crank them out. My supply of .22 is dwindling, so I shoot that less. I shoot more 9MM, .45, and 5.56 now, all my reloads. They only centerfire caliber I've been buying in bulk is 9MM Makarov, but I may get the dies for that too.
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Old March 1, 2015, 09:14 AM   #10
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"Big box" stores are the wrong place to look. I have a Gander Mountain near by, the price of guns there is on average 20 to 30% higher than any of the LGS's anywhere in the area. Ammo is also much higher.
To cut to the chase, everything is higher there.
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Old March 1, 2015, 09:20 AM   #11
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In my home town it has driven more guys to hunt with bows (that and the much longer season for archery). The take away from that is those voters will not all be pro-gun as they would have been in the past since they don't rifle hunt anymore and many don't think you need a rifle to hunt.

I worry about that shift and the loss in pro gun voters more than anything else!
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Old March 1, 2015, 09:25 AM   #12
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Guns seldom wear out, and the average gun is shot very little. The pace of innovation in the gun industry is very slow. These things mean that the market is saturated, and the demand for new guns is normally in steady decline. The only thing that causes demand to spike is periodic panic buying due to legislative efforts by the antigunners. Paradoxically, the main effect of the antigunners' efforts has been to multiply the number of guns in the hands of the public.

Considering the used gun market, and informal transfers among friends and family, I don't believe that economic considerations are preventing people from getting guns. Nobody is "too poor" to own a gun. The reason the market is slow right now is that people already have all the guns they want.

Regarding ammunition price and availability, this is important only to the small subset of gun owners who are regular shooters. The vast majority of gun owners keep a gun for "protection," and never shoot it, or are hunters who go into the field once or twice a year and maybe get a few shots off on each trip. For such people, a box or two of ammunition may last years.
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Old March 1, 2015, 09:44 AM   #13
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No one wants to pay $.10 for .22 but it's not really a barrier to going out and having fun.
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Old March 1, 2015, 09:47 AM   #14
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I'm still in firm belief that this will pass. Sure enough prices will settle in at a new normal. The snatch and grab market on 22lr is no more than a bubble that will in time burst. Many of the new participants in the gun market have entered it in political haste, and will lose interest as fast as they gained it.

The aggravation to many of us is that even if you have enough ammo in reserve to last through a dry spell, it is still hard to enjoy it with a nagging thought in the back of your mind, that you might not be able to replace it for who knows how long.

In reloading it has become necessary to buy bulk in order to get the cheapest cost per round. I can't understand high prices on powder. Seriously, if it cost more to reload it, then buy factory rds. I do believe that the powder market will calm more so than ammo. Reloading is a time consuming and attention involved activity. Many who jumped into reloading as fast as they did into guns will have storage sheds full of dusty presses and die sets in no time.

I'm sure that ammo, reloading, and firearm manufacturers know they have a gut punch coming. Just like that of the AR15 who's market slid off the side of a cliff. From 1500-2000 to $500 almost overnight.

Give it time and the little guy will have every chance at ammo that they did before. But I would seriously consider getting out of Illinois.
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Old March 1, 2015, 09:50 AM   #15
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ill add that people are sheep. When prices are low they dont buy. when prices start to go up or high they buy. The opposite of buy low sell high.

You can buy 223 online for .23/round right now.
a bolt action 223 ruger ranch american is under $500 and can be had for under $400.

A PSA AR can be bought for under $600.

buy 500 rounds of 223 a month and you will be set for the next scare
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Old March 1, 2015, 09:54 AM   #16
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Quote:
"Big box" stores are the wrong place to look. I have a Gander Mountain near by, the price of guns there is on average 20 to 30% higher than any of the LGS's anywhere in the area. Ammo is also much higher.
To cut to the chase, everything is higher there.
True here as well, but they DO have inventory. Free market econ 101
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Old March 1, 2015, 10:31 AM   #17
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Buy what you can afford, when you can and all you can!
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Old March 1, 2015, 11:01 AM   #18
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I reload for almost everything I shoot except .22LR buy I still have 15K of them. I have more fun shooting center fire ammo. I like odd ball calibers of which I have a couple so reloading is required plus reloading is my hobby and fun for me.
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Old March 1, 2015, 11:07 AM   #19
lot21
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I was planning on buying my first AR soon, should I just forget it now?
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Old March 1, 2015, 11:26 AM   #20
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No buy it. There is plenty of 223/556 in the market. People are confusing all 223.556 ammo with the M855 stuff. Local Walmart had tons of Federal 55 gr stuff and a fair price.
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Old March 1, 2015, 11:51 AM   #21
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I'm still in firm belief that this will pass. Sure enough prices will settle in at a new normal. The snatch and grab market on 22lr is no more than a bubble that will in time burst. Many of the new participants in the gun market have entered it in political haste, and will lose interest as fast as they gained it.
New gun owners are not the ones driving the 22lr shortages. Most of the "new" panic buyers bought defensive caliber guns. The 22lr bubble will not burst until people stop buying ammo from the profiteers. People are letting fear drive the market price up. A "OK" price on 22lr today is 20% to 30% higher than is was 10 years ago. Again I would argue it is not new shooters who are driving this. It is old shooters who have shot 22lr in high volume for years and want to continue even at new higher prices.

The cost to setup a new RF manufacturer is just too high and will take too long for someone to invest. The ROI is simply not there and if you are a current 22lr manufacturer you have no incentive to change the market pressures. It is simple supply and demand. Fear has artificially increased demand and unless that goes away the 22lr shortage is here to stay.

Quote:
The aggravation to many of us is that even if you have enough ammo in reserve to last through a dry spell, it is still hard to enjoy it with a nagging thought in the back of your mind, that you might not be able to replace it for who knows how long.
I personally do not stress the ammo reserves when I shoot. If you basically $$$ cost avg by buying at regular intervals you can keep a decent stockpile. Being a little forward thinking goes a long way. For the past 5 years I have bought in 1000 round case lots and supplemented with some boxes from Walmart or other reasonable sources. This has allowed me to shoot and keep a decent stockpile.

Quote:
In reloading it has become necessary to buy bulk in order to get the cheapest cost per round. I can't understand high prices on powder. Seriously, if it cost more to reload it, then buy factory rds. I do believe that the powder market will calm more so than ammo. Reloading is a time consuming and attention involved activity. Many who jumped into reloading as fast as they did into guns will have storage sheds full of dusty presses and die sets in no time.
This simple is not true. Buying powder is the same as buying ammo. It is best to do it in bulk but even if you don't you can still save money. 9mm saves the least amount of money but even if you buy smaller quantities is saves you $$$ over factory ammo. If I buy 1lb of powder like HP-38, plated bullets in 500 round boxes, primers in 1000 round boxes and using reclaimed brass you can hand load for $138. That is a 124 gr bullet. You can buy reloaded ammo from someone like Freedom Munitions for $252 shipped.

That is still a $114 savings per 1000 rounds. Now this does not factor in cost of equipment or time but even if you factor in modest equipment like a lee turret press your break even point is around 3000 rounds. So depending on how much you shoot even in todays "bulk" world it makes sense to reload if you have the time and approach it as a hobby. IMHO

Quote:
I'm sure that ammo, reloading, and firearm manufacturers know they have a gut punch coming. Just like that of the AR15 who's market slid off the side of a cliff. From 1500-2000 to $500 almost overnight.

Give it time and the little guy will have every chance at ammo that they did before. But I would seriously consider getting out of Illinois.
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The gut punch to an extent is already here. Look at the projected sales of companies like Ruger and S&W. They are projecting huge drops in sales in 2016 while the overall consumer economy is on the upswing. You see it in the handgun and AR market but the ammo market is different. Ammo like 380 ACP is still hard to find. It has been that way since every gun company in the world introduced a small 380 auto carry. Its high cost and low availability has been over shadowed by 22lr but its availability shortage has been longer than 22lr.

The 556/223 thing will die once the ban goes through or doesn't go through. Once people realize that not all 556/223 is banned it will be back on the shelves like it was 3 months ago. IMHO the M855 is a true panic buy which will end sooner rather than later.

Unfortunately I think 22lr & 380 auto will not.
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Last edited by VAgunner; March 1, 2015 at 11:59 AM.
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Old March 1, 2015, 12:23 PM   #22
JRWhit
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Quote:
I personally do not stress the ammo reserves when I shoot. If you basically $$$ cost avg by buying at regular intervals you can keep a decent stockpile. Being a little forward thinking goes a long way. For the past 5 years I have bought in 1000 round case lots and supplemented with some boxes from Walmart or other reasonable sources. This has allowed me to shoot and keep a decent stockpile.
I think our differences are regional. For the last number of years,"lost count", I have checked the shelves of every vendor I frequent and have not seen a single box, bulk or per 50, on a retail shelf period. The only place I have seen 22lr for sale is on classified listings or on gun show tables at a price I don't consider worth the expense. Now I don't exactly spend any time fretting over this. I check shelves at WM when I pass through but don't consider it worth my time to go store to store in search of it. If I find it good, if I don't, I have other interests. Otherwise I think I would go insane by this point. In my area there are a lot of the ," If they want it then I want it", types that will stake out any location for arrivals so they can add to their ego pile. I think that has became their hobby.

Quote:
This simple is not true. Buying powder is the same as buying ammo. It is best to do it in bulk but even if you don't you can still save money.
Again this seams a regional difference. The powder picking has stayed very slim in my area. I am going off of the powder I have been able to find. Tite Group found on Gunbroker was getting sold for upwards of $60 per pound. Figuring the going rate of primers per 1000 at the same time, cost per round came to $0.24 per round. WM has had shelves full of 9mm target ammo at the same price with copper RN. My figures included using coated lead.
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Old March 1, 2015, 12:27 PM   #23
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For .22 you gotta shop online and be ready to order when opportunity happens. Midway just had Win bulk packs for $ .05/rd this week. Didn't order any because I won't shoot bulk ammo through any of my .22's life is to short to shoot cheap ammo, and in cheap I mean 'crap' ammo.
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Old March 1, 2015, 12:42 PM   #24
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The demand curve is interesting on this stuff.
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Old March 1, 2015, 12:59 PM   #25
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Winchester 22 ammo has never been my preference, but to say it is crap is an exaggeration. The same applies to Remington Thunderbolts. People like what they like and some are not really willing to spend that extra money on target grade 22 ammo regardless. We all make our choices and live with them. For me, I keep a wide selection (brands) of 22LR in my cache. If I needed some, I would not hesitate to buy Winchester bulk for plinking and that is what most 22LR ammo is used for anyway.

The people that have been excluded in the current market are the folks that plan on shooting tomorrow and wander into Walmart thinking they can buy some bulk ammo. It is not there at any price. It is else where, but the very casual shooter does not wander into every store looking for a box of 22 ammo. That's why keeping at least a small cache (maybe 1000 rounds) on hand is a very good idea.
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