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Old May 16, 2015, 10:02 PM   #1
Ignition Override
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Antic. a major spike in deals before Nov '16?

We had a guy on a jumpseat yesterday who has an FFL license, used for his personal business.

His intention is to invest in an extra number of sporting rifles before that 'event' takes place.
Do many of you anticipate that this will be quite common, simply to avoid price increases/shortages of guns, components or ammo?
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Old May 16, 2015, 11:07 PM   #2
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Increasing "inventory" in anticipation of an increasing demand so you can take advantage of the increased demand sounds like smart business.

The only problem is accurately anticipating the timing so you don't have a lot of cash tied up in the wrong product at the wrong time.
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Old May 16, 2015, 11:13 PM   #3
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Considering that just about every time there is an election, fears of gun grabbers taking office seem to cause a spike in demand/prices, it seems like a pretty good idea to stock deep enough now to ride it out.
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Old May 17, 2015, 12:59 AM   #4
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Depending on the polls and outcome I think there is a good chance that demand will skyrocket.
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Old May 17, 2015, 02:45 AM   #5
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Eh, if one hasn't stocked up on guns and ammo already, it may already be too late.

2016 isn't looking good. The passage of UBC regulations in Washington and Oregon are simply a harbinger of things to come ...

Quote:
His intention is to invest in an extra number of sporting rifles before that 'event' takes place.
Given the latest strategy of the anti-gun folks, he may be stuck with them.
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Old May 17, 2015, 03:46 AM   #6
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I'd rather be stuck with several modern sporting rifles than stuck with no modern sporting rifles.
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Old May 17, 2015, 05:30 AM   #7
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I've been anticipating a lack of shooting "supplies" since I got my first BB gun and had to rely on my Dad to keep me in BBs.

When I started hand loading in 1970, I became an instant scrounger ... I picked up every cartridge case I saw and accumulated all sorts of stuff over the years.

As I became more heavily involved in loading, and thereby shooting, I bought more and more components. From the onset I had a stores level I always maintained. Over the decades, that acceptable lowest level of stores has steadily risen and I buy what I need as I need it to keep levels up where I want them.

Being a dedicated hand loader, and shooter, there's no such thing as "anticipation" buying, there's just continual prudent purchasing of those things I need to keep the levels up for all items associated with my hobby.
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Old May 17, 2015, 09:06 AM   #8
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Nothing wrong with a strategy of "buy low, sell high". Problem is in terms of an investment if you have that much capital tied up in one thing, in anticipation of a future price increase and it doesn't happen, you have lost out on making anything should you have invested in something else. You might also be stuck with your inventory for awhile and may just break even on your initial investment. Bit of gamble, especially where politics are involved as well, but then again so is playing the stock market.
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Old May 17, 2015, 09:17 AM   #9
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I doubt there will be any more than a small run on things, if any. Too many people have been stocking up for the last several months with all the deals out there, not to mention everyone's broke from buying the last few years.

No need to fan flames that are not there. Let's keep all the sky is falling to a minimum and actually see what happens. We are our own worst enemies sometimes.
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Old May 17, 2015, 09:55 AM   #10
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I'm buying

as many AR-15,s as I can afford, which currently runs one a month. I am sure, like I did preceding the last O'Bummer election, that I can make at least $500 each on them in the last six months of the Klinton election run. I am buying only quality rifles made by Sig Sauer and Colt. Thank you, Democruds, for the additional retirement money.
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Old May 17, 2015, 10:49 AM   #11
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I think trying to plan that far ahead in a market that can change literally overnight, or not change for a decade is fairly foolish.

With that said, buying low and selling high is always a good plan and prices are currently low, generally speaking. The problem is, no one knows how long they will be there.
Honestly, I'd guess the safer bet is in Pmags, and judging from recent history higher profits as well.

The people who get rich are the risk takers, good luck to you all. Hopefully I'll just remain middle class, I'm happy here.
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Old May 17, 2015, 11:15 AM   #12
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I like to keep my money in the bank or in the stock market. Way too much risk associated with the mood of the buying public. That would be the one's with jobs or money laying around. I'm not seeing another major run on guns. We have 16 months before the next election, plenty of time for most people to buy before that rolls around.
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Old May 17, 2015, 12:11 PM   #13
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Walkalong is probably correct, the market is glutted right now with ARs and there are far too many people who bought high and trying to sell low now (after trying to sell high).

If he has money to "invest" he could be laying up premium parts like BCGs that would be legal to sell regardless. I sold off all my standard BCGs when prices were high and I've turned that money into premium BCGs.

What other premium parts would people want in a banic that would sell regardless?
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Old May 17, 2015, 12:43 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hso View Post
Walkalong is probably correct, the market is glutted right now with ARs and there are far too many people who bought high and trying to sell low now (after trying to sell high).

If he has money to "invest" he could be laying up premium parts like BCGs that would be legal to sell regardless. I sold off all my standard BCGs when prices were high and I've turned that money into premium BCGs.

What other premium parts would people want in a banic that would sell regardless?
"Banic??" Ban+panic="Banic?" A new word, HSO .... or a Freudian slip?
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Old May 17, 2015, 12:55 PM   #15
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What's a BCG? I'm guessing an AR part.
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Old May 17, 2015, 01:00 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CoalTrain49
What's a BCG? I'm guessing an AR part.

Bolt Carrier Group.

The AR-15's bolt is held by a carrier by a cam, it rotates as it reciprocates back, alternatly engaging and disengaging locking lugs. The carrier itself does not rotate, but simply holds the bolt while functioning, plus it carries the "gas key" which engages the gastube from under the forend, which bleeds pressure off from the barrel during firing.
The whole assembly is thus refered to as the Bolt Carrier Group, or BCG for short.
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Old May 17, 2015, 02:08 PM   #17
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Quote:
I like to keep my money in the bank or in the stock market.
I consider my gun and ammo collection to be a hedge in case my money in the bank or markets becomes worthless or inaccessible. In the meantime, I get a lot more enjoyment from them that the piddling dividends and interest being paid, although there has been a nice run-up in stock prices recently, there was a serious crash in them only a scant seven years ago.
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Old May 20, 2015, 07:13 PM   #18
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I just bought another Colt 6920 for $815 delivered to my house. Last one (right after the Newtown hysteria subsided) was $1248 (at the WalMart). After the '16 elections they might be either $2500 rifles or $500 depending on the winner. Choose wisely. Joe
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Old May 20, 2015, 07:25 PM   #19
Sol
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I read that banic part too and it made me laugh. Banic must be the Arab pronunciation of panic.

Now stob banicing and have a sib of Bebsi.

anyways, I think your friend will either boom or bust.
One mass shooting or HRC winning may make him a few bucks.

If not, he'll have a lot of ARs to stare at.
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Old May 20, 2015, 07:36 PM   #20
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I'm set---but they are not and will not be for sale
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Old May 20, 2015, 07:42 PM   #21
Sol
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Pffft Omaha.

Everything is for sale if the price is right....at least un my book.
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Old May 20, 2015, 08:40 PM   #22
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"a lot of cash tied up in the wrong product at the wrong time."
Yeah, watch 'em try to ban handguns or tannerite next time; fat lot of good a bunch of AR/AK stuff will do.

Maybe he should invest heavily in AR firing pins; they were in short supply last go around, after all . Me? I'm investing heavily in machine tools; the true last line of defense of our gun rights is possessing both the knowledge and capability to ensure their proliferation for years to come (in full accordance with local, state, and federal laws, of course)

TCB
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Old May 20, 2015, 08:43 PM   #23
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Two things are guaranteed to happen;

1. Terrorism both domestic and aboard. The last terrorist act (in Texas) ended up with two very dead terrorists and only one wounded civilian with non-life threatening injury. Next attack we may not be as lucky.

2. Politicians and Liberals continuing to use any method, regulation, law and abuse of power by Government Agencies to ban guns and ammo.

Politically things will be much clearer in a year from now after the Presidental candidates are chosen.
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Old May 20, 2015, 08:51 PM   #24
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Eh, we keep on thinking "the next election will be definitive" but it never works like that --nor should it. What we can count on is a bunch of angry ants on both sides getting their dander up, and the ensuing emotional expenditure of resources on all manner of things (ads, guns, politicians, bunkers)

If there's any money to be made in guns in the near future, my bet is it is A) not in ARs, and B) not in striker-fired polymer carry guns

TCB
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Old May 20, 2015, 09:47 PM   #25
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I remember the first time I specifically went shopping because [something might happen] take your pick. An Armageddon-style collapse of society, the gov't rounding up all guns, etc. It was 1971-'72. (A little while after the GCA of '68) Note to any gov't agency monitoring this site. I never bought any guns, and they were all lost overboard when my boat sank and my house burned down...
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