Ammo predictions (5/6/21)?

I know this is a touchy subject, threads get whacked a lot as we veer off topic, and the topic itself does get repeated and beaten to death. If this belongs in a different forum group, mods please move it...

So that said, within the last month I've noticed a HUGE increase in my email inbox. Every day, I'm getting 20+ "We've Got Ammo!!!" emails from different sites, that I've long had subscriptions to. This is a big change; over the last year a lot had been silent, and only occasionally would I get a notice of a special deal (i.e. log in on Thursday at 7pm EST and we will have 100 cases of blah-blah at this price, limit 1 per household).
Now, I've got 6-7 different sites begging me to come buy their (still expensive, but a bit lower) ammo, usually with 3-4 different brands to choose from. Daily, something a couple times a day.

Does this mean, in the board's estimation, that we've turned the corner on the shortage big-picture? If so, how much longer do you think it will be, before these places start dropping their prices (hey, we're selling this cheaper than those guys, buy from us)? Right now, it seems like 9mm brass is sitting around 70-80 cents a rd, but if sgammo or targetsportsusa drops it to 50, the others would follow quickly. You know (or I assume) it will happen, and once it starts, it should move back to reasonable fairly quick- they will basically get in a bidding war for our dollars.

How much longer before this happens, do you think?

My own guess is maybe this fall. I don't think you can sit on product as a retailer very long, and someone will break ranks.

George P said:

And that is exactly how market pricing during a shortage should work; yet some will whine about "gouging", (which isn't happening) because the prices are higher than they want to pay. That attitude frees up more supply for those who are willing to pay, spreading the supply around and hopefully filling a lot more need so that demand will start to slow so supply can catch up.

Click to expand...

Well, that's what I'm talking about- I think production has caught up now, or is very close.

A few months ago, if I wanted 223, my choice was Tula, or very rarely maybe some PPU (or even more rarely Federal) at extremely high prices, and I had to know when and where to look.
The following has occurred:

1. "where" went from a couple sites, to just about everywhere
2. "when" is no longer an issue, these guys are now staying stocked.
3. my choices are increasing almost daily. Not just Tula and 1 brass option anymore, I'm looking at a flyer advertising my choice of several different brands. I see PMC and Winchester in both .223 and 5.56, listed at the same site (instead of JUST the cheapest steel cased .223 Tula, in a take-it-or-leave-it option.

I don't have to use ammoseek, I've got a bunch of sites saying LOOK AT ME now. Like I said, that's a huge difference. And like I have speculated, now that we're at this point, it shouldn't be too long before it changes to "PLEASE come buy this", as the sites have to move what they have (or get lost in the rush). It only takes one-two stores, once the supply is back, to drop the price, and the others will be forced to do so too. Otherwise they will have to just sit on it, which is financially a disaster.