When you need a gun, you REALLY need a gun, doesnt matter where you are, or what you might think the circumstances are or might be.
You dont get to choose either, as much as you might think you do. "You" dont make the choice. You do get to choose what you carry.
Not knowing what you might get, wouldnt you at least hedge your bets, and try to carry something that will cover as many bases as possible, and not just one or two narrow scenarios that others tell you to expect?
Statistics are great and all, but they are just some sort of average, based on who knows what and by whom. Im pretty sure we all hope, whatever they are, that we never need to find out. But if youre going to plan, do you hope for the best case, or plan for the worst?
Personally, I dont really care where it is in the curve, if its happening, thats bad enough for me.
Luckily too, 99% of most duty and compact-sized handguns are easily carried on a daily basis, so you can easly cover your bases through most of the curve.