Which Handgun Caliber(s) Do You Think Would Be the Last To Go Extinct? The First?

Pat Riot said:

I don’t we’ll see any dramatic changes until the introduction of the phased plasma rifle in the 40 watt range…

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Only 40 watts?

30 Super Carry forever !

357/38 will be around. 9mm with a caveat that no high powered lung blowing military assault cartridges get banned.

If we as responsible gun owners do our part then none should go extinct. We have to keep up the good fight. And pass our knowledge, wisdom, and safety to our kids. Some calibers might be harder to find. But not extinct. What will happen in 100-200 years? I have no idea. Hopefully Jesus will come back before then. But that’s for a different forum.

Zerodefect said:

.38super is toast. Average age of a 1911 shooter in that caliber is 87.

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Despite this, Armscor and Tisas still make them (as does AO/Kahr).
9x21 still has some IPSC popularity for "making major" with high round counts in "stock" magazines.
And, for better or worse, it remasins a hugely popular round along the length of the US-Mexico border (a legacy of when Mexico outlawed "military" calibers) and for how slick a 9mm diameter round will "run" in a 1911 frame.

Mind, that does bring to mind a caliber that is very much gone by the wayside, the .38acp, the parent of the 38super.

Best way to monitor such thing is often to monitor the cartridge collector's market.

Meeks36 said:

If we as responsible gun owners do our part then none should go extinct. We have to keep up the good fight.

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If it’s my job as a “responsible” gun owner to go out and buy a .25ACP and a .45GAP in order to help prevent those two cartridges (not “calibers”) from going extinct, I’m bowing out. I’m not THAT much of a “responsible” gun owner.

The 7.62 Nagant is going away, surely but slowly.
There are many ‘obsolete’ cartridges, but maybe not ‘extinct’, if there’s a weapon chambered for it, there’s probably somebody somewhere loading for it, although I haven’t heard of anyone loading Rocket Ball(Volcanic) rounds.

LookAtYou said:

Specifically the "common" calibers seen in the USA.

In my opinion, I feel like 9mm would be the #1 caliber that isn't going anywhere, any time soon. Along with 9mm, I'd also throw in .357 mag, .40 S&W, .45 ACP, .38 Spl, and .380 ACP.

I feel that calibers like .25 ACP and .32 ACP have the highest chance of completely being phased out. Namely the .25 ACP. I feel .22LR has it's place as the "smallest" caliber for easy shooting. It's solidified it's popularity in this regard.

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You should have said "cartridges". The names of cartridges are often not the actual caliber. There are a number of cartridges with a common caliber.

.22 will be with us forever
38 Super will be extinct if it isn't already, which is a shame

LeftyRed said:

It’s like they almost don’t understand physics or ballistics.

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...or logic, or common sense, or..... anything.

Zerodefect said:

.45, 10mm, and .40 are easy to make out of lead wheel weights. And don't require JHP to be effective.

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Sadly, wheel weights made from lead are drying up, and linotype is basically gone. Lead is getting harder to come by. Your argument is not as strong as I wish it was.

I use a giant block of lead as a parking stop for my work truck.

And then there's my scuba weights.

Need to stock up on solid copper and brass though.

greyling22 said:

Lead is getting harder to come by

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This is so; lead ingots at the plumbing supply house are getting to be like printed copies of Yellow Pages.

Just bought over 200 rounds of a dead caliber, 32 NAA. Same auction had some 25 Stevens Rimfire. An old LGS closed up shop and had quite a selection of odd stuff. I like the odd stuff.

Still waiting for some 357/44 B&D to show its face so i have the right headstamp...

The 30 and 357 Herretts are pretty well niche cartridges. As is the 221 fireball and even the almighty 222 Rem and 220 swift.

We all know 9 and 45 will be around until lasers and plasma take over. 32ACP will also be around. Many countries do not allow guns chambered in a military caliber. Thats why the 32 is popular.

I think .38 Super will be around for awhile longer though I can't share the same sentiment for the .30 Super Carry. Or the .32-20, .32 S&W, .32 H&R Magnum, .38 S&W Short, .38 Colt Short, .357 SIG, .41 Magnum, and the .45 GAP for that matter.

The .380 ACP, 9mm. Parabellum, .38 Special, .357 Magnum, .44 Magnum, .45 Colt, and the .45 ACP will be around for like... all eternity!

Even when a caliber is declared obsolete some small runs could be made by manufacturers with low production. In so for, those prices increase accordingly.
10 years ago 45 Long was also obsolete. 9mm Largo, some French and some smal rimfire (Belgium).

CharlieFox42 said:

The two that will never die would be 9mm and.45 ACP. Otherwise no-one would have anything to argue about

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Add .38 Special, and I think you've got it nailed.

I don't consider .22 LR to be a "handgun" caliber, although lots of handguns use it. Handguns could all disappear tomorrow, and .22 LR would still be with us.

A lot of posters hit the nail on the head. You can't have this discussion without factoring in arbitrary gun control (arbitrary because any laws passed almost never follow any logic, reason, science etc.the few times the gov has paid to study the studies don't come back how they would like, more guns didn't mean more crime or violence, civilian gun use is frequent and lawful and effective at criminal deterrence etc).

These things seem to move in predictable cycles. First they get the "machine" guns, the "full autos". Nevermind "shall not be infringed" and the second clearly being designed to keep a civilian populace on fighting terms with a hostile army.

Those guns are priced out now and niche. As mentioned, you used to be able to order guns from catalogues and have them delivered. The hoops we go through today were unimaginable a few generations ago.

Once they get the machine guns, it's "assault rifles". Along with that are the (arbitrary) "high capacity" mags.

Biden jumped a few turns going for the 9mm "lung blasters", must've been reading ahead.

When they get the autos, and the sporting rifles, next it's that no civilian needs such a military caliber.

Places like Mexico cap you at 380/38.

Then there's a high profile shooting with handguns. I lived in Scotland when Dunblane happened. And "no honest person needs a weapon you could conceal".

The you're left eventually with only sporting arms, and so many loops and red tape. Single shot shotguns, 22lr rifles etc. Maybe stored at the range etc.

Ammo tightly controlled.

So if we go the way of the rest of the world, to bring it around to the caliber discussion, then we end up with twelve gauge maybe and 22lr as the last to go.

The last - 22LR and 9 mm
The first - 25 ACP

CapnMac said:

This is so; lead ingots at the plumbing supply house are getting to be like printed copies of Yellow Pages.

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Keep your eyes open, it turns up. Recently acquired a few hundred pounds of old pipe, now I'm scrounging the antique shops for pewter.

Lead may be the deciding factor, however. Let those copper Lehigh attain broad acceptance, and introduce lead bans, and we'll be turning our backs on heavy and slow as we embrace fast and light. Bye-bye .45acp, hello 30 super carry.

greyling22 said:

Last to go will be 22lr
First will be 45 gap.

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Why 45 GAP? Exactly one gun was made for it and nobody has bought a box of ammo for it in 15 years, yet it remains. Unless Glock folds the gap will remain. Don't forget Glock made 10mm the entire time. Maybe the only one. Kimber may have in small numbers. Same for eaa/tanfoglio. The Gap going extinct would be Admitting "imperfection".

Won't happen.

greyling22 said:

Sadly, wheel weights made from lead are drying up, and linotype is basically gone. Lead is getting harder to come by. Your argument is not as strong as I wish it was.

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I install tires in my shop, not my main buisness BUT having a tire machine and good balancer makes diagnosing some issues easier so I bought them. Lead weights are still 99.9 % of what we use at my shop. Even adhesive weights we order are mostly still lead. Some OEM use a funky foam weight though and most use other metals, I assume to satisfy the states that don't allow lead. A few states don't allow lead weights and the big sites (all tire supply etc etc) will default to lead if your state allows. Less than 10 don't allow lead. You can likely guess them. Lol.

With adhesive weights being single time use, there should be a good bit of used weights somewhere. I throw mine in an old cheese puff tub. Lol.

Hammer on weights are generally reused.

Frulk said:

I know it’s not in the hand gun class but around here it seems like you can’t give away a .300 WSSM.

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You can to me if you take me out to eat first.

.45 GAP was a solution where there was no problem, and if anything on this thread dies before I do, That's the one I'm betting on. And I believe it was .357 Sig that was designed to compete with .40S&W. "Hey, we've got all this .40 brass laying around nobody wants, let's neck it down to 9mm and still load it to .40 levels and see how fast it'll go!". Not a bad round, but I still prefer .40S&W over 9mm and .357 Sig for my own use.

At any rate, I'll be obsolete and extinct before any currently made ammunition will be, so it doesn't really matter.

Hmm, now, "Future looks murky" might apply to .50GI as that was a round everyone jumped into.