Ruger reports significant drop in sales

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If only Ruger (or someone) would make old Fudd guns like the good old days - THEN - they wouldn't sell many as the market focus has moved to self-defense oriented guns! Read the shooting industry sales figures. Shotguns have been flat for years for example, your SD handguns increasing sales.

As far as the Minis - if you haven't noticed, the plain jane versions survive most of the AWBs out there - God knows why as they are an efficacious as an AR - shown in some massacres. Thus, having one when the AWB comes back (OH, no - Clarence will save us!) is a bit of an insurance policy for a bit of time.
 
Otto said:
Vista Outdoor Inc. is down 37% ....ouch!
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Seeing as you quoted some percentages I'm going to assume you know a little about the stock market. Do you think Vista stocks dropping so much will have a positive effect on ammo prices? I don't follow or understand the intricacies of the stock market, so that's why I'm asking.

Don't mean to derail the thread.
 
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Scout21 said:
Seeming as you quoted some percentages I'm going to assume you know a little about the stock market. Do you think Vista stocks dropping so much will have a positive effect on ammo prices? I don't follow or understand the intricacies of the stock market, so that's why I'm asking.

Don't mean to derail the thread.
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down 37%

mabey they will start releasing primers
 
GEM said:
If only Ruger (or someone) would make old Fudd guns like the good old days - THEN - they wouldn't sell many as the market focus has moved to self-defense oriented guns! Read the shooting industry sales figures. Shotguns have been flat for years for example, your SD handguns increasing sales.

As far as the Minis - if you haven't noticed, the plain jane versions survive most of the AWBs out there - God knows why as they are an efficacious as an AR - shown in some massacres. Thus, having one when the AWB comes back (OH, no - Clarence will save us!) is a bit of an insurance policy for a bit of time.
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On the one hand, that's an interesting point about SD oriented guns (with the market focus part). Anyway, let's hope companies move more toward promoting shooting sports in the process.
 
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Ruger has a pretty decent balance sheet and has an almost 5% dividend yield at present.

The stock price has had a pretty good run. The last 5 years or so it has been somewhat volatile but it's about where it was 5 years ago. It's not likely that it will be moving up a whole lot.

I don't think it's real attractive at current levels because it has some serious risk associated with it that the company itself can't do anything about, mainly what new gun laws will get passed.

Ruger makes decent guns.

I never saw Marlin as any kind of competition to Ruger because they made different lines of guns. It's a pretty good compliment to the existing Ruger line.

Remington for whatever reason did not endear itself to gun owners over the last few decades. Ruger is going to have to pick bits and pieces out of the ashes of what is left of Marlin to find some value. My personal opinion is that there isn't really much left of Remington to pick through.

My personal opinion is they overpaid, but they had plenty of cash available to overpay with so it didn't hurt their balance sheet. Only time will tell if the purchase makes sense.

Edited to change Remington to marlin.
 
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bubbaturbo said:
People are broke. Local gun store says he is now taking in 15-20 used guns on weekends. I'm seeings lots more used guns here and plenty of just about everything new. Rebates are starting too.
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Seeing the rebates indicates that guns aren't selling and the one that surprised me was the GX4 because it is the cheapest P365 style pistol on the market and you can't blame it on the brand as the G2 and G3 have been top sellers for years.

People are tapped out and when the ammo costs as much as it does and gas, food, bills higher than ever that doesn't leave much for new guns or pricey ammo.

The correction is finally coming, I expect to see primers back on shelves for $50 a brick by Memorial Day 2023.
 
Remington1911 said:
The point is it should not have made it out the door in the first place.

You have been on gun forums for a while, you know this is not a one off.....it happens.....and more then it should happen, but hay the customer service is great they are really working with me on getting this right. Baaa.

Your QC sucks rocks and has for a very long time, the only thing that keeps you alive is that customer service.
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Most of not all gun manufactures QC sucks now. It's cheaper for the industry to let CS handle any issues than to have a proactive QC dept
 
I’m in line for a Marlin 1895SBL.
At the store I put my down payment at to get in line there are 97 people ahead of me.
At every other store that was taking pre-orders there were at least 100 people in line ahead of me.

From the initial reviews it seems that they knocked one out of the park.

This is in Canada where I assume gun sales are probably 5% of what they are in the USA.

My only experience with Ruger is my GP100 Match Champion which I find to be a great gun.
It’s not comparable to my 1977 Colt Python or 80’s Dan Wesson 44 but it’s not in the same price range either.
 
Remington1911 said:
Wrong an investment company destroyed Remington.

You could not be more wrong if you tried.
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The vultures don't show up until the company is effectively dead. They may still be functioning on some level but it is just a matter of time until the end comes.
 
Remington1911 said:
Likely why I buy old guns, made with pride and craftsmanship.
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Pride with a Price. Back then, QC was not good as modern robots and everything was hand fitted. A Colt or Smith also cost a months salary for the average man. Now, you can pick up a plastic wonder for a days labor, or a steel semi custom gun for 1 week pay check
 
Scout21 said:
Seeing as you quoted some percentages I'm going to assume you know a little about the stock market. Do you think Vista stocks dropping so much will have a positive effect on ammo prices? I don't follow or understand the intricacies of the stock market, so that's why I'm asking.

Don't mean to derail the thread.
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Vista was under $5 in Aug of 2019. Today it is $30.

Vista does not currently pay a dividend so is not much on my radar as far as investing.
 
Mark_Mark said:
Pride with a Price. Back then, QC was not good as modern robots and everything was hand fitted. A Colt or Smith also cost a months salary for the average man. Now, you can pick up a plastic wonder for a days labor, or a steel semi custom gun for 1 week pay check
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Yes and no. Same as today the "top of the line" type gun was expensive. Something like a Remington model 8 was very expensive, as it was cutting edge tech. But a "middle of the road" gun was about the same as it is now. I am thinking you are going back to the thing that is talked about in any "history" deal on the "old west" when a colt was so expensive. But again you have to remember cutting edge. You could have a cartridge conversion done for 1/3 the cost, and be right there. Lever guns back then expensive, but single shots not so much, go back to when the first cartridge guns came out, rolling block, trapdoor, those are expensive over a muzzle loader, cutting edge.

We are told time and time again that....well we can't make a Python, Savage 99, 1903, take your pick, as it just can't be done by modern machine. Well nope, the machine can do it, but that machine is much more expensive over what is common now. Pouring black plastic BB's in one end and "frames" out the other is nothing, and the makers have trained us that plastic is the only way to go. It is not just this but everything.

I don't know if I agree with the QC not good, with each human hand fitting, I am sure the machine of the gun did what it was designed to do. It would not leave the factory if not. Now if you are talking about the metal working tech, I agree, one only has to look at the "low number" springfield '03 for that. Yes the human eye thought it was right, but the metal work of the era was also holding some of the cards. And this does prove your point to a degree, the human error in that one operation. However if you go back and really read that report, the number of guns that went kaboom is very small of the total out of that factory. In my view calling them all "bad" is tossing the baby out with the bath water.
 
Remington1911 said:
Yes and no. Same as today the "top of the line" type gun was expensive. Something like a Remington model 8 was very expensive, as it was cutting edge tech. But a "middle of the road" gun was about the same as it is now. I am thinking you are going back to the thing that is talked about in any "history" deal on the "old west" when a colt was so expensive. But again you have to remember cutting edge. You could have a cartridge conversion done for 1/3 the cost, and be right there. Lever guns back then expensive, but single shots not so much, go back to when the first cartridge guns came out, rolling block, trapdoor, those are expensive over a muzzle loader, cutting edge.

We are told time and time again that....well we can't make a Python, Savage 99, 1903, take your pick, as it just can't be done by modern machine. Well nope, the machine can do it, but that machine is much more expensive over what is common now. Pouring black plastic BB's in one end and "frames" out the other is nothing, and the makers have trained us that plastic is the only way to go. It is not just this but everything.

I don't know if I agree with the QC not good, with each human hand fitting, I am sure the machine of the gun did what it was designed to do. It would not leave the factory if not. Now if you are talking about the metal working tech, I agree, one only has to look at the "low number" springfield '03 for that. Yes the human eye thought it was right, but the metal work of the era was also holding some of the cards. And this does prove your point to a degree, the human error in that one operation. However if you go back and really read that report, the number of guns that went kaboom is very small of the total out of that factory. In my view calling them all "bad" is tossing the baby out with the bath water.
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one thing for sure, We are a well armed nation thanks to robots and plastic.
 
unclenunzie said:
Mr. Killoy made the following observations related to the Company’s second quarter 2022 performance:

· The estimated unit sell-through of the Company’s products from the independent distributors to retailers decreased 31% in the first half of 2022 compared to the prior year period. For the same period, the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (“NICS”) background checks (as adjusted by the National Shooting Sports Foundation) decreased 17%. These decreases are attributable to decreased consumer demand for firearms from the unprecedented levels of the surge that began in 2020 and remained for most of 2021. The second quarter of 2021 had the highest quarterly distributor unit sell-through in the Company’s history, which led to the significant year-over-year decrease in distributor sell-through in the current quarter.

· Sales of new products, including the PC Charger, the MAX-9 pistol, the LCP MAX pistol, and Marlin 1895 lever-action rifles, represented $33.8 million or 11% of firearm sales in the first half of 2022. New product sales include only major new products that were introduced in the past two years. Several popular firearms that were considered new products in 2021, including the Wrangler revolver, the Ruger-5.7 pistol, and the LCP II in .22 LR pistol, have now been in production for over two years and are no longer included in new product sales for the first half of 2022.


· Our profitability declined in the second quarter of 2022 from the second quarter of 2021 as our gross margin decreased from 39% to 31%. In addition to unfavorable deleveraging of fixed costs resulting from decreased production and sales, inflationary cost increases in materials, commodities, services, energy, fuel and transportation, partially offset by increased pricing, resulted in the lower margin.


· During the second quarter of 2022, the Company’s finished goods inventory and distributor inventories of the Company’s products increased 49,300 units and 28,200 units, respectively.

Industry wide trend. Not just Ruger. Year over year comparisons of sales shake out seasonal variations but don't account for anomalies like:

unprecedented levels of the surge that began in 2020 and remained for most of 2021. The second quarter of 2021 had the highest quarterly distributor unit sell-through in the Company’s history, which led to the significant year-over-year decrease in distributor sell-through in the current quarter.

As a matter of personal investment style I prefer much larger size firms that have major structural advantages against competition but have temporarily fallen hard in stock price due to factors that will go away in the long term.

But keeping this on Ruger as a gun forum subject, I think they have accelerated a move toward cheaper and faster, but not necessarily better, just good enough with upgraded features. They produce extremely popular handguns at low prices with excellent customer service responsiveness. Initial quality could be better, as with the case of my LCP MAX which works - but the finish across three (3!) slides/barrels show rust brand new and I cannot get rid of it. This to me is a reduction in quality. But you do get a lot of value for the money even so.

Comparing my 2009 LCP gen 1 (which in all fairness had it's slide replaced due to extraction issues early on) never showed rust, ever. It cost about 350 in 2009 money. I paid the same in 2022 for the LCP MAX, and got dovetailed sights with a tritium front, 10+1, superior trigger, much better extractor, much better serr

As for the revolver line, I find it much better, they work and don't have rust problems.
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My stainless SP-101 rusted when stored in a damp basement for a couple years. It’s partly my fault, but I didn’t expect the STAINLESS gun to rust. It rusted more than my cheap blued Charles Daly Hi-Power.

I’m not impressed with Ruger for the last twenty years. It feels like they’re cutting costs with resulting cuts in quality, thinking no one notices.
 
GEM said:
New AWB legislation if ever passed will be a sales incentive for plain Jane Mini-14s and PCCs. They aren't on the bad gun list.
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That's why the price of Minis has been high for a number of years. People figured out that ARs in ban states are really crap and not worth the effort. Can't blame Ruger for taking advantage of having a captive market.

Their PCCs they have to stay competitive on though.
 
Ruger is not alone in the universe. Year after year of record breaking gun sales eventually was going to slow. Millions of people who never planned to own a gun are now gun owners. There is a small percentage of the population as we have here who are gun enthusiast but aside from us eventually the market is saturated. What? Something like 400 million guns in the US give or take a few million. :)

Ron
 
Reloadron said:
Ruger is not alone in the universe. Year after year of record breaking gun sales eventually was going to slow. Millions of people who never planned to own a gun are now gun owners. There is a small percentage of the population as we have here who are gun enthusiast but aside from us eventually the market is saturated. What? Something like 400 million guns in the US give or take a few million. :)

Ron
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Yeah, the party is winding down. Now, it’s time for the fire sales, rebates, and bogo!
 
I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for expanded availability of models and configurations that are already unavailable.

We are in an ECONOMIC DEPRESSION. The reason people aren't buying more guns is because many can't even afford basics to sustain life. Raise your hand if you've gotten a meaningful raise lately. If you are self-employed, raise your hand if your roster of paying customers has grown recently - or even held steady. Now raise your hand if all your bills have gone up substantially lately. I can't afford to buy any new guns now, and I don't see that changing any time in the near-term - no matter what the outcome of the upcoming elections.

Expect lay-offs at all levels of US manufacturing, especially at facilities producing goods that are non-necessities. Drop in demand does not mean there will be increased production, let alone increase in new or previously-scarce models. That's not how economics works. Hate to be the bearer of bad news to Mr. Big Paycheck, but that Ruger #1 in 6.5 Swede with the schnabel forearm he's been waiting for just isn't going to get made. That gun is a NON-NECESSITY.

The gun manufacturers will continue to produce only enough supply of mid-priced popular guns to keep - hopefully - in the black. Tooling and running Q/C for fancy stuff that doesn't sell won't keep the lights on.

Same goes for ammo. Price will come down some because demand is dropping sharply. Again, who can pay 50 cents and up for one bang when they can't afford to fill their gas tank? I'm still burning my fair share of ammo - for now. But that's only because most of my ammo is handloaded, and therefore largely un-saleable in the secon-hand market. I might as well enjoy it while it lasts. Ammo manufacturers still have to pay for input costs. Price of ammo will go no lower than the point at which the manufacturers can cover inputs and still eek out a little bit of profit.

If you can afford to spend money on non-necessities, your best bargain today will be in the form of guns and ammo being sacrificed by by people who are struggling to buy basics.
 
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