CMP 1911 Round 3

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Madcap_Magician said:
The down side is that you never know when they're going to call your name. I suspect that's why they have such a high rate of people saying "no," it's one thing to have saved $1,250 for a gun, it's another to have $1,250 saved for a gun that you can successfully keep sitting there waiting for your call anywhere up to two years after you put the money away. But, the small investment (cost of GCA membership, $5 for the notary stamp, and $10 to ship it), was worth it to be on the list and have the option.
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Yep, generally the timing is not known. I did not follow Round 1, but I think the Random Generated Numbers, RGN's, were, in fact, randomly assigned. The CMP probably didn't know how many people would apply and how many pistols would be transferred. If that was the case (an assumption on my part) this meant, at the time they assigned RGN's, high RGN's might not have received a pistol.

With Round 2, at the time the RGN's were assigned, after all applications were in at the deadline, the CMP likely had enough pistols transferred that they knew they could fulfill all applicants. Really no need to assign RGN's "randomly" since pistol condition is really a factor of the crate that they process at the time an applicant is called. The only advantage of random numbers would be early numbers get theirs first. I procrastinated, and I waited a long time. Super happy with what I got, and I was OK with the wait.:)

So, how to know, or approximate when the CMP will call... On the CMP 1911 forum, people were reporting their RGN's and when they got the call. People also reported what their RGN's were, and they were able to get an idea what the starting RGN was, i.e. the lowest member reported RGN was, say 20,054. The highest reported RGN in Round 1 was in the 19,000 range. It was inferred then that the starting RGN for Round 2 was 20,000. Knowing that, and tracking when specific RGN's were called, you could project to an approximate date when you would get the call. There was a member of the CMP 1911 forum that was doing this, then they stopped, so I started my own tracking for Round 2. I tracked working days, not calendar days.

Easy way to ballpark wait time is CMP was processing about 34 applications per working day. So, (Your RGN - Starting RGN) / 34 = working days before you get called. Plug that into an online working day calculator to get the approximate date. Have money ready on that date. The number the CMP processed per day varied to as low as 24 per day, due to holidays, season, etc. so as it got closer to my number, I tracked it closer.
RGN Tracking.png
 
d31tc said:
Yep, generally the timing is not known. I did not follow Round 1, but I think the Random Generated Numbers, RGN's, were, in fact, randomly assigned. The CMP probably didn't know how many people would apply and how many pistols would be transferred. If that was the case (an assumption on my part) this meant, at the time they assigned RGN's, high RGN's might not have received a pistol.

With Round 2, at the time the RGN's were assigned, after all applications were in at the deadline, the CMP likely had enough pistols transferred that they knew they could fulfill all applicants. Really no need to assign RGN's "randomly" since pistol condition is really a factor of the crate that they process at the time an applicant is called. The only advantage of random numbers would be early numbers get theirs first. I procrastinated, and I waited a long time. Super happy with what I got, and I was OK with the wait.:)

So, how to know, or approximate when the CMP will call... On the CMP 1911 forum, people were reporting their RGN's and when they got the call. People also reported what their RGN's were, and they were able to get an idea what the starting RGN was, i.e. the lowest member reported RGN was, say 20,054. The highest reported RGN in Round 1 was in the 19,000 range. It was inferred then that the starting RGN for Round 2 was 20,000. Knowing that, and tracking when specific RGN's were called, you could project to an approximate date when you would get the call. There was a member of the CMP 1911 forum that was doing this, then they stopped, so I started my own tracking for Round 2. I tracked working days, not calendar days.

Easy way to ballpark wait time is CMP was processing about 34 applications per working day. So, (Your RGN - Starting RGN) / 34 = working days before you get called. Plug that into an online working day calculator to get the approximate date. Have money ready on that date. The number the CMP processed per day varied to as low as 24 per day, due to holidays, season, etc. so as it got closer to my number, I tracked it closer.
View attachment 1100335
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Great info, thanks a lot!
 
JDeere said:
Depends on what it is, the condition and how much people know about them. I got exactly 100 bucks more than I paid and it was on consignment at my LGS. I'm a military History buff and collect such items. I was not happy with my heavily parked battleship gray mix master so I sold it. She was a shooter and that was it imo. I'm well aware of luck of the draw but in my eyes I lost on that one. I got numerous very nice Garands from the CMP so I guess my time for a bad one came around. I have seen some nice and not so nice 1911s so go for it and take your chances. They are getting more expensive and harder to come buy. Just keep your expectations real...
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Well, I disagree. The heavy parkerization is part of the history. It doesn’t make them any less authentic. And in addition to the parkerizarion, the guns got worn out parts replaced. My gun doesn’t rattle at all.

And she wasn’t just a shooter. A Brazilian knock-off GI clone is a shooter. The CMP 1911’s are genuine US issue that hung from the belts of American GI’s. I didn’t buy mine to shoot all that much, but when I do, it shoots just fine.

Just like with the M1’s. I picked service grades over rack and field grade every time.
 
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Homerboy said:
Well, I disagree. The heavy parkerization is part of the history. It doesn’t make them any less authentic. And in addition to the parkerizarion, the guns got worn out parts replaced. My gun doesn’t rattle at all.

And she wasn’t just a shooter. A Brazilian knock-off GI clone is a shooter. The CMP 1911’s are genuine US issue that hung from the belts of American GI’s. I didn’t buy mine to shoot all that much, but when I do, it shoots just fine.

Just like with the M1’s. I picked service grades over rack and field grade every time.
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True, a M1911A1 took a trip in 1991 with me to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Drew it once when I was dismounted from my ride and heard what I thought was gun fire. Not that it would have helped much. That was my history. Who knows what came before that. Mine was reparkerized.
 
Homerboy said:
Well, I disagree.
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That's cool and that's your opinion in which you are entitled to. I have others that were reworked but not at the arsenal level where they were done like the one I received in the late 70s and 80s and stashed away. It's good that these are being offered and not sent to captain crunch. I shoot mine except for one that is pretty much unmolested, original finish and correct parts. My carbines and garands see range time as well.
 
I have a question I hope isn't too stupid. I've never been in a war, never want to be in a war, so I don't know how many rounds weapons of war get fired. Did these 45's get fired that much and they need to be rebuilt? Same with the Garand's, and M1's. I got a Garand 15 or so years ago from the CMP north store. Just wondering why they needed to be rebuilt. Was the metalurgy in the 40's that much weaker?
 
@King Medallion

In my opinion, combat wear on a pistol is fractional compared to decades of garrison use with annual qualifications and multiple disassemblies/assemblies for cleaning, training inspections, etc.

Most troops who are issued pistols either have another primary weapon system they are responsible for or they have a job that precludes the need for a rifle. The reality is they aren’t used in anger as often as might otherwise be depicted in numerous Hollywood productions.

I concede there are exceptions to the above so please note that before responding with the, “….but you’re wrong because there was this one time…” story.
 
King Medallion said:
So they get rebuilt unnecessarily?
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Not unnecessarily. They need it. They get rebuilt because after, say, a decade of being handed out to GIs who have to disassemble and clean them constantly with religious fanaticism, who have to train with them, qualify with them, and possibly carry them daily…. Not to mention possibly being carried in an actual combat zone where they might be exposed to the elements for days, weeks, or months on end…

After that, the finish will be heavily worn, which inhibits the pistol’s ability to resist rust and corrosion. Parts will be worn, maybe to the point the pistol feels sloppy, and maybe parts are even damaged or missing. So off to the arsenal it goes for a complete tear down and rebuild, with thousands of others. All the guns would be disassembled, parts separated into bins, cleaned, gauged and inspected, and the ones still in spec refinished. Then each frame gets a new pistol built up around it, all tight and ready for more years of abuse.
 
There are lots of pictures of battlefield armorers with mountains of guns to be cleaned and repaired. They get damaged in battle without firing a shot. Pistols, I'm sure much less, since they weren't primary weapons. But the constant wear and tear of training and exposure to the elements take a toll, I'm sure. I've seen pictures of M9's that look almost stainless, the finish is so worn. Veterans complain about the condition of the ones they carried, which is surely not what you see on a civilian owned Beretta.
 
Should I do it, it would a stretch on my gun money but IDK, might not get another chance?!?!?!?!
 
If you want one, yes. Rea
Mark_Mark said:
Should I do it, it would a stretch on my gun money but IDK, might not get another chance?!?!?!?!
Click to expand...

If I'm not the master of overthinking, I'm pretty close. I'm also very new to surplus US property 1911's, so take my advice with a grain of salt.

Why get one now?
1. Because you want to.
2. CMP is a nice way to get provenance for a "collector". It may not be all original parts and may not be an original pistol used in trenches of WWI or island hopping in the Pacific, but neither are a bunch of other old DCM pistols and even bring backs. This would help it hold value, in my opinion.
3. Looking for nostalgia that you can't get from a commercial 1911. This was my main reason.
4. Because they are a good value (at this time).*
5. No guarantee on how many chances you have left from the CMP.**

Why not to get one?
1. Not really a collector or into the nostalgia. There are better pistols for less money, that will do the same thing sending.
2. Future value isn't guaranteed. The pistol you get may be all matching parts and worth a lot and will be worth what you had to pay and then some, or it might be replacement slide, replacement barrel, replacement parts, none of which match which will be worth not as much. A quick check on Gunbroker shows a "mix master" CMP pistol with a replacement slide sold for about $1,600. Not much was selling for less, so I think the CMP pricing is still a deal, even if it did go up $200.*
3. The CMP potentially has up to about 60,000 more pistols that would be eligible through future rounds, so chances are the CMP will have more pistols to sell, so you might not NEED to for round 3.**

* The overthinking, Part 1 - Value (price) is based on supply and demand. The current supply has been pretty static, for half a century until the CMP started to receive the transfers. Currently, there the CMP added an additional 30,000 or so US Property 1911'sto the supply, but this has also increased interest and therefore possibly demand. I tried some Googling to see how many US Property 1911's are in circulation, via bring backs and previous sales through DCM to see what sort of impact an additional 90,000 to 100,000 has on the supply side. 10%? 20%? I have no idea. The big question is, if you want a CMP pistol, will it be cheaper to buy it private party in the near future. My calculation (read, "gut feel", because I did no actual calculations) is no, they will not be cheaper in 10 years, and they certainly aren't cheaper on private sale today, so I think the value is there. Maybe someone with an economics degree can survey demand, calculate supply and determine the impact an additional 90,000 pistols will have and put it on a chart.

** The overthinking, Part 2 - The CMP is getting 10,000 pistols every fiscal year. There is probably a way to figure out how many pistols have been transferred through a FOIA request, but my guess is they have transferred 40,000 to 50,000 pistols to date. Based on RGN's I would estimate about 30,000 have been sold. There were about 19,000 applicants in Round 1 and there were about 15,000 applicants in Round 2. With the short notice and timeline, the history of applicants in Round 1 and 2 decreasing, and the $200 increase in cost, it's safe to assume that there will be fewer applicants in Round 3 (10,000?). Therefore all Round 3 applicants will get a pistol and the CMP will still have pistols remaining for a future Round 4. At some point, I think they will start selling them more directly and open it up another pistol for previous customers. Maybe I'm too optimistic. But then you know what they say about pessimists - pessimists are just optimists with a little experience.
 
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d31tc said:
If you want one, yes. Rea


If I'm not the master of overthinking, I'm pretty close. I'm also very new to surplus US property 1911's, so take my advice with a grain of salt.

Why get one?
Because you want to
Click to expand...
investment?
 
I'd buy a few more but I received mine in round one. The supply trickles out if you want to wait 12-18 months on a high lottery number. At least there is a round three and they'll probably all be snatched up. At least they were in the first two rounds. If they let me buy another one I will but I want everyone to have a shot at one first.
 
d31tc said:
If you want one, yes. Rea


If I'm not the master of overthinking, I'm pretty close. I'm also very new to surplus US property 1911's, so take my advice with a grain of salt.

Why get one now?
1. Because you want to.
2. CMP is a nice way to get provenance for a "collector". It may not be all original parts and may not be an original pistol used in trenches of WWI or island hopping in the Pacific, but neither are a bunch of other old DCM pistols and even bring backs. This would help it hold value, in my opinion.
3. Looking for nostalgia that you can't get from a commercial 1911. This was my main reason.
4. Because they are a good value (at this time).*
5. No guarantee on how many chances you have left from the CMP.**

Why not to get one?
1. Not really a collector or into the nostalgia. There are better pistols for less money, that will do the same thing sending.
2. Future value isn't guaranteed. The pistol you get may be all matching parts and worth a lot and will be worth what you had to pay and then some, or it might be replacement slide, replacement barrel, replacement parts, none of which match which will be worth not as much. A quick check on Gunbroker shows a "mix master" CMP pistol with a replacement slide sold for about $1,600. Not much was selling for less, so I think the CMP pricing is still a deal, even if it did go up $200.*
3. The CMP potentially has up to about 60,000 more pistols that would be eligible through future rounds, so chances are the CMP will have more pistols to sell, so you might not NEED to for round 3.**

* The overthinking, Part 1 - Value (price) is based on supply and demand. The current supply has been pretty static, for half a century until the CMP started to receive the transfers. Currently, there the CMP added an additional 30,000 or so US Property 1911'sto the supply, but this has also increased interest and therefore possibly demand. I tried some Googling to see how many US Property 1911's are in circulation, via bring backs and previous sales through DCM to see what sort of impact an additional 90,000 to 100,000 has on the supply side. 10%? 20%? I have no idea. The big question is, if you want a CMP pistol, will it be cheaper to buy it private party in the near future. My calculation (read, "gut feel", because I did no actual calculations) is no, they will not be cheaper in 10 years, and they certainly aren't cheaper on private sale today, so I think the value is there. Maybe someone with an economics degree can survey demand, calculate supply and determine the impact an additional 90,000 pistols will have and put it on a chart.

** The overthinking, Part 2 - The CMP is getting 10,000 pistols every fiscal year. There is probably a way to figure out how many pistols have been transferred through a FOIA request, but my guess is they have transferred 40,000 to 50,000 pistols to date. Based on RGN's I would estimate about 30,000 have been sold. There were about 19,000 applicants in Round 1 and there were about 15,000 applicants in Round 2. With the short notice and timeline, the history of applicants in Round 1 and 2 decreasing, and the $200 increase in cost, it's safe to assume that there will be fewer applicants in Round 3 (10,000?). Therefore all Round 3 applicants will get a pistol and the CMP will still have pistols remaining for a future Round 4. At some point, I think they will start selling them more directly and open it up another pistol for previous customers. Maybe I'm too optimistic. But then you know what they say about pessimists - pessimists are just optimists with a little experience.
Click to expand...
how many 1911 military surplus you think there is laying around?
 
d31tc said:
Why get one now?
1. Because you want to.
2. CMP is a nice way to get provenance for a "collector". It may not be all original parts and may not be an original pistol used in trenches of WWI or island hopping in the Pacific, but neither are a bunch of other old DCM pistols and even bring backs. This would help it hold value, in my opinion.
3. Looking for nostalgia that you can't get from a commercial 1911. This was my main reason.
4. Because they are a good value (at this time).*
5. No guarantee on how many chances you have left from the CMP.**

Why not to get one?
1. Not really a collector or into the nostalgia. There are better pistols for less money, that will do the same thing sending.
2. Future value isn't guaranteed. The pistol you get may be all matching parts and worth a lot and will be worth what you had to pay and then some, or it might be replacement slide, replacement barrel, replacement parts, none of which match which will be worth not as much. A quick check on Gunbroker shows a "mix master" CMP pistol with a replacement slide sold for about $1,600. Not much was selling for less, so I think the CMP pricing is still a deal, even if it did go up $200.*
3. The CMP potentially has up to about 60,000 more pistols that would be eligible through future rounds, so chances are the CMP will have more pistols to sell, so you might not NEED to for round 3.**

* The overthinking, Part 1 - Value (price) is based on supply and demand. The current supply has been pretty static, for half a century until the CMP started to receive the transfers. Currently, there the CMP added an additional 30,000 or so US Property 1911'sto the supply, but this has also increased interest and therefore possibly demand. I tried some Googling to see how many US Property 1911's are in circulation, via bring backs and previous sales through DCM to see what sort of impact an additional 90,000 to 100,000 has on the supply side. 10%? 20%? I have no idea. The big question is, if you want a CMP pistol, will it be cheaper to buy it private party in the near future. My calculation (read, "gut feel", because I did no actual calculations) is no, they will not be cheaper in 10 years, and they certainly aren't cheaper on private sale today, so I think the value is there. Maybe someone with an economics degree can survey demand, calculate supply and determine the impact an additional 90,000 pistols will have and put it on a chart.

** The overthinking, Part 2 - The CMP is getting 10,000 pistols every fiscal year. There is probably a way to figure out how many pistols have been transferred through a FOIA request, but my guess is they have transferred 40,000 to 50,000 pistols to date. Based on RGN's I would estimate about 30,000 have been sold. There were about 19,000 applicants in Round 1 and there were about 15,000 applicants in Round 2. With the short notice and timeline, the history of applicants in Round 1 and 2 decreasing, and the $200 increase in cost, it's safe to assume that there will be fewer applicants in Round 3 (10,000?). Therefore all Round 3 applicants will get a pistol and the CMP will still have pistols remaining for a future Round 4. At some point, I think they will start selling them more directly and open it up another pistol for previous customers. Maybe I'm too optimistic. But then you know what they say about pessimists - pessimists are just optimists with a little experience.
Click to expand...

No, this is very good reasoning.

Past precedent is a good point as well.

1. Are there any guns the CMP has sold that do not regularly sell for above their CMP price at gun shows and dealers around the country? CMP prices at what they say is market value, but consistently they're priced low. Even with the $200 increase for Round 3, you can't even get a total mixmaster rack grade GI 1911 for the $1,050 that CMP is now asking. So that's the worst gun you could get from CMP. The only way you could even conceivably lose out there is if you get a gun that is in way worse condition than it was graded and none of the parts match, and historically I'd say the CMP is more conservative than liberal when it comes to grading guns - much more likely to get a rack grade that could have been a service grade than to get a service grade that should have been a rack grade.

All CMP Garands and M1 carbines are worth more on the secondary market than they were priced from CMP. No more GI Garands, carbines, or 1911s are being made, so the numbers are only going to go down and values go up.

2. We can anticipate based on Round 3 that any future rounds of 1911 sales have a fair chance of increasing in price. So getting yours now (since you can't get it in Round 1 or 2 when they were a total steal) makes sense, as there is zero reason to believe the price will go down from CMP.

3. The only reasons not to buy a CMP 1911 would be if you were very confident that the transfer of this many GI 1911s is going to crash the entire GI 1911 market such that secondary prices are going to be less than CMP's cost. That sounds... unlikely to me, and even if it were true, it would only mean that it will take some time for your gun to be worth more than you paid for it rather than it being immediately worth $200-$600 more than you paid right when you take possession from your FFL. Or if you are never going to have any interest in a GI 1911, I guess. But why risk that?

Just mailed my packet in today!
 
how many 1911 military surplus you think there is laying around?
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Well, I think it's a lot.... millions.... Example, my Colt frame is from 1918 and was part of the largest order Colt shows placed by the US military at 319,746 pistols originally shipped either June 26 or July 1, 1918 to Bush Terminal Brooklyn. and this is ONLY Colt manufactured 1911 and 1911A1 pistols.

https://www.oldcolt.com/pages/colt-model-1911-military-shipments-1912-1919

https://www.oldcolt.com/pages/colt-model-m1911a1-military-shipments-1924-1945

These links show all Colt military sales 1912-1919 and 1924-1945
 
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gralewaj said:
Well, I think it's a lot.... millions.... Example, my Colt frame is from 1918 and was part of the largest order Colt shows placed by the US military at 319,746 pistols originally shipped either June 26 or July 1, 1918 to Bush Terminal Brooklyn. and this is ONLY Colt manufactured 1911 and 1911A1 pistols.

https://www.oldcolt.com/pages/colt-model-1911-military-shipments-1912-1919

https://www.oldcolt.com/pages/colt-model-m1911a1-military-shipments-1924-1945

These links show all Colt military sales 1912-1919 and 1924-1945
Click to expand...

How many were manufactured isn't the same as how many are still around, though. I'd actually be real curious to find out how many of them are simply irretrievably lost or destroyed.
 
Madcap_Magician said:
How many were manufactured isn't the same as how many are still around, though. I'd actually be real curious to find out how many of them are simply irretrievably lost or destroyed.
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Yep, I agree. I’d be curious, too, for a good approximation of how many remain in existence. From what I’ve read, 2.7 million M1911/M1911A1 were procured by the United States Government. How many of those were bring backs, how many were sold by DCM, and how many were destroyed, would be interesting.
 
d31tc said:
Yep, I agree. I’d be curious, too, for a good approximation of how many remain in existence. From what I’ve read, 2.7 million M1911/M1911A1 were procured by the United States Government. How many of those were bring backs, how many were sold by DCM, and how many were destroyed, would be interesting.
Click to expand...

Almost certainly no way to ever know, though. :(
 
Mark_Mark said:
how many 1911 military surplus you think there is laying around?
Click to expand...


I read the CMP will transfer 80K. Not sure how many they've already transferred. I think for round 1 it was around 17K. Two more rounds maybe 50K total. I don't know how many surplus guns were out there before this sale. That's a lot of 1911's. By the time the CMP is finished it's going to crater the market as we know it.

I didn't buy mine as an investment or to speculate in the market. I'm a hard core 1911 fan and I've wanted a surplus gun for 20 years. Not to shoot, I have a Gold Cup Trophy for that. I had two other gov't model Colts that I sold to fund this one. I now have a very old one and a very new one.
 
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