FBI STATS 380 vs 9mm vs 357 vs 40 vs 45

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Kachok

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There has been alot of myths about the stoping power of different handgun bullets, some people put all their faith in high speed "Hydrostatic shock" while others think that the caliber and mass of the bullet are the only thing that matters, how do we sort out fact from fiction? What better place to start then the statistics kept by the FBI. Here are a few examples of performance of different bullets. ATI=Average incapacitation time. This is an estamated number based on their formula of shock and blood loss. All of these were among the top performers in their respective calibers.
exp pen shock one shot stop ATI
Cor-Bon JHP +P 90 0.58 9.0in 467psi 70.0% 10.2 sec 380acp
Cor-Bon JHP 115gr 0.55in 14.2in 626psi 90.6% 8.8 sec 9mm
Federal Classic 125 0.65 12.0in 1487psi 95.8% 5.7 sec 357 mag
Remington Golden Saber0.68 12.0in 771psi 93.8% 7.9 sec 40 S&W
Cor-Bon JHP 185 0.7 11.3in 920psi 91.7% 7.2 sec 45 ACP

What does this tell us, well first of all the puney little 380 is far from worthless seeing as 70% of the time one shot was all it took.
Although the 45 did beat the 9mm in one shot stop ratio the margin was so slim that it is hardly noticable.
The myth on larger bullets always being more effective is busted here as the 357 magnum (9.1mm) has a higher one shot % and a faster ATI then any of the larger bores.
The choice of bullets seem to have more of an effect on performance then the choice of caliber as each had good and poor performers.
Other things start becoming more noticeable when comparing these charts in detail. The rapid opening shallow penatrating "shock" bullets tend to have a faster ATI but a lower one shot % then slower, heavier, deeper penatrating bullets that seem to be a more consistant performer. The FBI's 115gr silver tips that gave the 9mm such a bad reputation after the Miami shootout had very poor performance stats, they only had 8 inches of penatration and ranked amongst the lowest of any 9mm round.
I hope this will reduce some of the caliber bashing going on around here.
 
How many grs. was that .40 S&W bullet? If a .380 is 70% effective at a one stop shot shooting them twice should make it 100% effective? Also can you give your source url please.
ll
 
POST YOUR SOURCE
after Marshall and Sanow
you need to give the source, claiming 'FBI'

is just some guy on the internet spouting stuff...
 
I wish I knew the web address but I'm sure anyone can find it with google and a little time. I recently read a PDF file of a report supposedly published by the FBI as a source for LE caliber selection. The end findings in the report?

1. Bullet placement - Hit something vital, only brain shots and spine shots are 100% effective.

2. Penetration - 12" through flesh and bone will still allow the bullet to reach the heart and other vital areas even if the suspect is turned at a less than optimal angle.

3. Hole size, the bigger the hole, the more likely the suspect is to lose blood pressure and pass out faster.

They went on to say as well to ignor the effects of hydrostatic shock in handgun calibers and made some interesting points about one-shot-stops in regards to psychology. This is all heresay of course because I don't have a link, but if you are good with google you should be able to find the document, It's public info.

I thought it was funny that they also reccomended that agents keep firing until the suspect is down, and if he/she gets back up, resume firing. Document could have been fake but it was definitely interesting.
 
OH, well, like you say, and many here repeat what you are saying, but then again, I lack the documents to back myself, and don't feel like digging the up right now either

hey went on to say as well to ignor the effects of hydrostatic shock in handgun calibers and made some interesting points about one-shot-stops in regards to psychology
Click to expand...

This is what I question about the OPs post, claiming to have a math answer for what is at best, a very difficult if not impossible problem to quantify, every shot is it's own data set, and how it is made and compiled with 'other shots' is what leads me to question this,

Beside, how many people are only shot once by the police, their training is to shoot until the threat is stopped. That doesn't sound like one round.
 
There were several sources listed one was street stopers, others were
21.^ a b From model in Courtney A, Courtney M: Links between traumatic brain injury and ballistic pressure waves originating in the thoracic cavity and extremities. Brain Injury 21(7): 657–662, 2007.
I found the information on wiki
24.^ Estimated from model in Courtney and Courtney http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701266
I have been told that this is the information compiled by the FBI although I cannot confirm that.
 
Per Massad Ayoob: It is impossible to quantify stopping power. There's no national data base that provides enough detail about police shootings to even begin to evaluate them fairly. FBI statistics do not ask if the persons being shot were male or female? Young or old? Big or small? Jacked up on amphetamines or completely sober? Were they shot from the front while charging towards the shooter or shot in the back while running away? Was he a tough guy or was he a <push-over>? Etc...

There's simply too many variables to be able to look at a piece of paper and say "yep this will stop someone, and this won't."
 
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The same principals apply to hunting bullets as well, while larger calibers do make bigger entry holes that has little berring on damage to the vials, I have seen a 6.5mm bullet pulvarize the entire chest cavity of a deer. I have also seen ballistics gel tests where a .30 cal bullet leaves a would canal 9"+ wide that split three sides of the gel block! While speed is not the be all end all of tissue damage it certainly has somthing to do with terminal ballistics. That said there is nothing more consistant then a large caliber heavy projectile because it depends less on expansion and if there was a bullet structural failure it still has more momentum to drive the fragments deeper.
 
same old same old woobie wars
some will believe it because they want to
some will disbelieve it because they want to

most oldtimers will just yawn and say, "yup"...
it's tuff to beat 357 in a revolver or 45 acp in an autoloader
it ain't your grandaddy's 9mm no more
and 380acp ain't no spitball
(and them newfangled 40s tend to fall in between 9s and 45s, who ever woulda' thunk it)
 
i remember reading what hes talking about. The psycological part of it was a different angle to think about. A lot of people once shot go through a "omg omg omg i'm going to die" panic once shot and that can stop the threat immediately as well.

Ill try and dig up the link to it. It was in a 9mm vs .45 thread.

edit: found it http://www.firearmstactical.com/pdf/fbi-hwfe.pdf
 
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Oh yep you can
Hell they are cooking up .480 and even a, whoop whoop, .500 in them spinny guns now

As for the autos, well lets not forget the widely/automag in .45 really big and FAST, and then there is the 50 DE, but even a .32 isn't a spit ball (we can leave that to a .25) and in the end they get the job done, mostly.
 
Why would anyone believe any info put out by an agency as incompetent as the FBI? Man they get lost going to the head in their own office building.

Va herder
 
What does this tell us, well first of all the puney little 380 is far from worthless seeing as 70% of the time one shot was all it took.
Click to expand...
And yet no police agency in the USA issues or recommends a .380 as a service pistol, including the FBI.
The Feds carry Glocks in .40 caliber.
 
Thank you Holo, that was the one exactly. To anyone that uses a .380, it really ain't a spitball. When someone is trying to kill you (unlike a police shootout) they are usually very close and facing you, so with 2 or 3 inches of penetration through the ribcage you will hit the heart and a decent .380 hollowpoint will expand and make a nice, big, hole. If you want the 12 inches of penetration, usually you will need fmj though.

By the same logic described in that the paper I refered to (That Holo found a link to, thanks again), my 10/22 loaded up with a standard mag of 10 velociters (The 25 rnd mags aint working 100% for me yet) should do the trick also. And it has the advantage of looking like an assault rifle when it's dark inside to someone who doesn't know a lot about guns. Not reccommending this either, but there are people who may only own a .22 for plinking and when your house gets busted into, you need to grab what you got before you duck behind the bed.
 
easyg said:
And yet no police agency in the USA issues or recommends a .380 as a service pistol, including the FBI.
The Feds carry Glocks in .40 caliber.
Click to expand...

The concept of offensive vs defensive weapons & caliber still eludes so many. :rolleyes:

Well placed shots of .380 are surely capable as a defensive caliber and misplaced shots of any caliber are, well, misplaced and not so effective.....Any volunteers who doubt such logic should step forth and prove their argument valid.....Take one for the team. ;)
 
This sure sounds alot like the "strasberg goat tests". Supposedly goats were shot through the lungs to test the effectiveness of different ammo. After they were shot the amount of time it took for the goat to go down was recorded. Then the one shot stop effectiveness was figured out. This was going around in the 90s. Do a search on it. Mark

http://arxiv.org/ftp/physics/papers/0701/0701267.pdf
 
The concept of offensive vs defensive weapons & caliber still eludes so many.
Click to expand...
Considering that the best defense is a good offense, I wouldn't own a handgun that wasn't capable of both.
I can't see why anyone would.


Well placed shots of .380 are surely capable as a defensive caliber and misplaced shots of any caliber are, well, misplaced and not so effective.....Any volunteers who doubt such logic should step forth and prove their argument valid.....Take one for the team.
Click to expand...
Ah yes, the tired old argument that if a given caliber is even remotely able to stop a human aggressor then it must be a good self defense caliber.

A 22. short can kill a man.
And I wouldn't volunteer to get shot with one.
But that doesn't mean that the .22 short is a good caliber for self-defense.

If a person can shoot a .380 accurately, then they will have no trouble shooting a 9mm Para accurately.
And since there are plenty of small 9mm handguns around, many just as small as the typical .380 handgun, there's really no good reason to carry a .380 pistol.



Easy
 
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easyg said:
And since there are plenty of small 9mm handguns around, many just as small as the typical .380 handgun, there's really no good reason to carry a .380 pistol.
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No there's not "many" 9mm as small as .380s but one very expensive one comes to mind.....The "good reason" is, confident in their ability (more than hair splitting calibers) free men do as they will, not as others tell them to. :neener:

Funny thing is I know several LEOs who carry only a P3AT or LCP when off duty.....Hmmmm
 
The psychological effect is not quantifiable. You could argue that a large Ruger Single Six would intimidate a BG more than a pocket .380 based on appearance if the BG doesn't know much about guns. It may be safest to stick with numbers. Even then it's up for debate. Carry what you're comfortable with in terms of both caliber and pistol. 'nuff said.
 
The stats mean very little to me. There are so many variables in each shooting, that it just makes it hard to get a good overall picture. It's like saying ford trucks kill pedestrians better than dodges.

Bottom line for me is this. Yes, a 380 will stop an attacker. But it isn't a great performing round. I'd rely on one if it was all I had and I felt confident enough to shoot ragged holes or 1" patterns out to 15 yards. Let's face it, shot placement is key with a smaller round. Pocket 380's usually have a small number of rounds, so I would need to be supremely confident in my ability to draw and fire the few small rounds I had. I won't stand in front of anyone and let them test their 380, either. I know it will stop and kill effectively if you place your shots correctly. So will a 22. Luckily, the 22 (cci stinger) that I was shot with had poor shot placement.

As far as 9mm, 40, 357 SIG, 357 and 45 go...well that's a dead horse. They have been proven to stop an attacker with shot placement. They have been proven not to stop an attacker with poor shot placement. I'll gladly carry any of those with good ammo in a package that I shoot effectively with.
 
'Stop' is a hard thing to quantify in any case. So much is subjective, and the data is often based on what the shooter/victim recalls or reports.

There are many studies of lethality, based on statistics collected by hospitals, and while the relationship between 'stops' and lethality is tenuous at best, lethality depended primarily on bullet placement, and the major factor effecting this was number of times shot (thus increasing the probability that something important is hit).

So, the whole idea of the one shot stop is flawed from the outset. Multiple rounds into the target, increasing the chance of a strike to a vital region, is probably far more important than what cartridge you carry. Shoot until they stop or fall down. There is no magic bullet.
 
GunTech said:
So, the whole idea of the one shot stop is flawed from the outset. Multiple rounds into the target, increasing the chance of a strike to a vital region, is probably far more important than what cartridge you carry. Shoot until they stop or fall down. There is no magic bullet.
Click to expand...

Well said!
 
Estimated from model
Click to expand...
A few key words, at least to my eyes, WRT the notion of ATI.

'Stop' is a hard thing to quantify in any case. So much is subjective, and the data is often based on what the shooter/victim recalls or reports.
Click to expand...
Absolutely. The M&S 'one shot stop' stats have been widely debated here and elsewhere due to the method in which the stats were collected and both what they show and do not show. Rather than reengage in that debate, I would recommend a forum search here for anyone interested in the topic.

In the end, I believe that anyone planning to respond to deadly force or the threat of deadly force with but a single shot needs to rethink their plan, and anyone planning on a magic bullet or chambering providing a tactically significant advantage really had better hope that they never have to test their theory. :)
 
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