Gun Bubble? Will the rabid demand for firearms level off?

http://www.kdvr.com/news/kdvr-gun-sales-hit-record-high-in-december-2011-20120103,0,4002045.story

Yea and the ranges are packed as well. A wait on weekends wherever you go!

As an FFL myself, the demand subsided drastically back in 2009.

I think the gun bubble was what we saw in 2008 before the election. Gun prices were incredibly high but have been reaching a pretty normal level recently. We may be on the cusp of another one, but I think we've got a while longer until we see anything like a real run on guns.

On my local swap forum, a lot of used stuff is now priced at full MSRP. In what other industry does that happen?

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Ever heard of those Nike "designer" shoes?

I think it'll be a while before we see a real increase in supply. Colt ARs, the "gold standard" as some call it, are only going for around $900. There's going to have to be a lot more demand for us to see a big jump in production.

On second thought... your situation may be specific to your location. I recently heard a guy who found a dealer selling brand new Glock Gen 4s for $425 or so. That's a good bit below MSRP.

Ernie Mccracken said:

I don't know what it says about our country's future when during a time of record high unemployment, thousands of jobs leaving the country every day, and possibly the worst economic outlook in history - the gun shops are absolutely packed with customers clamoring for guns like they're the last wonka bars.

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Makes perfect sense to me.

Something has drastically changed, and many people see for the first time that very few things in life are a "sure thing" including jobs, which many of us have been able to take for granted until now (especially people my age - I'm turning 27 soon). As a result, many think to take steps to at least try to guarantee the one thing they can - their ability to survive.

Whether faith in firearms for that survival is sound logic or not is another question entirely. It may very well be a key part of that plan, if nothing else.

I'm certainly not sitting out. Buying a very nice hunting rifle as soon as it's delivered to my LGS. Buying a Glock (or other handgun) for the wife the following week. Buying my own handgun at the end of January, or early February. And plan to buy my first AR15 at the end of Summer.

Ernie Mccracken said:

Will the rabid demand for firearms level off?

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I don't see the recent increase in "recorded" background checks by FFL dealers as signifying "rabid demand".
Just because these transfers weren't private which would have resulted in "unrecorded transfers" illustrates that there may not have even been a higher level of gun transfers compared to normal after all.
Or maybe some areas don't have as many gun shops or shooting ranges as other places so any increase in local holiday sales and business seems more dramatic.
And that's not to say that there wasn't any increase, but the increase may not actually be as much higher as people are being led to think.
The population grows but the number of gun shops stays the same, or lags behind the population growth and natural sales growth driven by cohorts who have recently become of age.
Maybe sales were slow and now the military is coming home at an opportune time.
Whatever it is, IMO the term "rabid demand" is off the mark.
Maybe the economy is doing better, but that much better?
Maybe the average price of the guns being transferred is lower due to a relatively poor economy?
Just look at the prices of some guns, both new and used which can sometimes be well under $200.
My son recently came home with a used German WWII rifle for under $100. Believe me, many folks would have jumped on that deal for what he bought at that price. Would he have bought it if it were being sold for double the price and closer to what it was worth? I doubt it would have sold so quickly.
There's plenty of examples like that and I don't see any evidence of a rabid trend.
The more good deals there are then the better the chance that someone will buy it.
Just consider how many guns that are being listed on Gunbroker which never sell. And I've heard complaints by an FFL about very slow sales at recent gun shows. What he actually said was that at a December gun show everyone was walking around with their hands in their pockets and not buying much of anything. And that's been the trend for a while too.
There's still a surplus of used guns probably due to the economy over the last few years. That and many trade ins have probably contributed a lot to the increase in back ground checks. It's a lot like holiday sales in general, the more that retailers discount prices the more that they sell.
Perhaps if there's a shortage of used guns in some places then there must be a surplus somewhere else like over at the auction houses where the dealers buy some of their used guns. Or maybe they're not actively buying used guns and drying up the local market in favor of selling new ones.
When elderly gun collectors die and their estates get auctioned off, then that can contribute to a lot of transfers being done. A lot of the gun auction buyers are also gun collectors, and you'll hardly ever see them in the gun shops standing in line. They can bid from the comfort of their own home or by traveling to auctions in person. So if local people are sending used guns to the auction houses or to Gunbroker then they don't appear on the local market.
Whether there's a surplus of guns available in an area is a lot like rain, some areas have too much and other areas don't have enough.
I think that it's as simple as that.

It depends on the political situation. If Obama is reelected, there will be a second Great Panic, and possibly worse than the first time.

If the other guy is elected, demand will remain steady or decrease.

Regarding a 2nd guns and ammo buying panic,
"Fool me once, shame on you; Fool me twice, shame on me."

This means that you should learn from your mistakes and not allow people to take advantage of you repeatedly.

http://www.usingenglish.com/referen...shame+on+you;+fool+me+twice,+shame+on+me.html

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To their credit, I think that the majority of the American shooting community is sophisticated and smart enough to not be duped by all of the panic hype.

Hello,

It won't really subside.

Folks are getting ready for a change, and are also voting "no confidence" in the government -- with their wallets and choices of purchase.

This is not political; it's only instinct. We are dehumanizing people too -- Zombies, anyone?

As well, new shooters have been bitten by the bug and there is a whole new demand out there.

Folks are just preparing, whether they realize it or not.

Do not look for it to slow down much. Sure, it will taper down as folks get what they need and the industry keeps gearing up to meet demand (Lee builds a new factory and updates tooling, for example). But that taper-off will still be serving a higher number of gun owners than it was in, say, 1995.

Regards,

Josh

I just heard on our local news yesterday that firearm sports (3 Gun, USPSA, IDPA, F-Class, etc) are growing faster than Golf!

I think we have quite a way to guy before we see demand tapering off. Heck, NBC just bought the Versus Channel, which airs the show 3 Gun Nation and a ton of other firearm and hunting related shows so the desensitization of firearms is underway.

I think that the popularity of shows like Top Shot, American Gun, and Sons of Guns may be contributing, though I have no way at all to quantify that.

These shows seem to have the potential to reach a portion of the audience that may be turned off by the hunting shows on Outdoor channels, or straight competition shooting like on Versus. Manufactured drama aside, they show off a plethora of drool worthy firearms and showcase some fun aspects of shooting reactive targets. Oh, and they make things go boom.

"during a time of record high unemployment"

Sorry, but the record was set many years ago. There are a whole lot of people working in this country and making pretty good money still.

And then there are the baby boomers - a huge chunk of the population - like me with paid off mortgages and no debt, etc.

I hope the bubble levels off so I can find, or even see, some of the guns I want.

I have read a couple articles that said Nov and Dec were both record months for background checks and this was long after any so called panic of 08/09.
I think it's great that the gun market is strong and while not all of these new guns are American made many of them are. Same with ammo, at least those segments of American manufacturing are still strong and the foreign makers have got to be saying "America" "Hell yeah" and the anti politicians are wondering how they will ever move their agenda forward.
The downside of course is that some guns are harder to find but the ammo situation seems to be well under control.
I think many new buyers believe that we are in for declining police forces and understand what many gun owners have always known, the police will come and take a report but when seconds count they are only minutes away.

"Over the holidays, I planned to expand my collection with 3-4 new purchases. As you can probably guess by my tone, I completely struck out and have given up on the idea for the time being. I'd rather just wait this craziness out."

Some people might think someone buying 3-4 guns in a short period of time especially when they already own guns is "crazy." I'm just saying it depends on where you are sitting for your point of view.

With quality going up relative to price - or - price dropping for higher quality and options, I'd say certainly it will level off - always does, and this broad range of optional and relatively inexpensive firearms will go with it. I'm more concerned these days about cost/quality/availability of ammo.

1) I don't consider current buying as "Rabid Demand." I think that it's prudent. As we look at current events (protests and violence) around the globe and our protests at home it is not hard to envision the OWS movement becoming (more) violent as the temps warm up. It is also not hard to imagine crime increasing as the economy continues to stagnate or decline. I'll take this point one step further....we currently have selective law enforcement.
Yes, the usual generic crimes such as assault, rape, murder, robbery, etc are investigated but if there's a political part of the crime then it's often dropped. Examples? Let's look at illegal immigration, gentlemen waving nightsticks around outside of poling places, a mob trashing a Whole Foods store a few months ago, the vandalism associated with the OWS movement, the people that were held hostage on the west coast when a port was occupied, etc, etc, etc. The list can go on and on. I wonder how many arrests were made. Heck, you might even be able to gather 4 friends and try to kick a HS kids head in without consequence as long as a the right people make the right claims.
2) While unemployment is up many of us are working a ton of OT as our companies are doing more with less people. I made almost 1/3 more money than my base pay last year and some of it went to guns and ammo. I know others that did the same.
3) Some are no doubt using play (eating out, movie money, etc) money to buy guns. This is merely a shift in how disposable income is allocated. I'd also like to mention that a sale is a sale. Saving 5-10% during this economy may be a huge deal to some people. These holiday sales might have allowed some people to buy gifts that they might not have been able to buy at regular price. I know people that are counting every dime right now.
4) I consider the current group of people rushing out to buy guns a good thing. They are now invested in keeping pro gun policians in office, are supporting the gun/ammo industry and most of all....they are taking responsibility for their own safety instead of relying on the gov. It shows that the denutting of American males may be changing.
I know several people that bought guns for self defense this year and I'm glad to see people at least thinking about standing up for their own safety instead of believing that the gov. is the solution to everything.
5) I don't want to go overboard on the political stuff but I have seen Libs buying guns for home and self defense. I will enjoy seeing them reconcile their politicians and the gun issue on election day. I also enjoy seeing them mingle with Conservative gun owners and hopefully learning something. Finally, it's kind of interesting to see them state that things are bad enough under the current administration that they need to fear even more crime and violence in the future.

Well put P

X-Rap said:

Well put P

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Thank you, I always have to go back and do a bit of editing on these topics. I try not to turn this into an overly political post and get the thread locked.
Apologies if I fail/failed.

I'll take this point one step further....we currently have selective law enforcement.
Yes, the usual generic crimes such as assault, rape, murder, robbery, etc are investigated but if there's a political part of the crime then it's often dropped. Examples? Let's look at illegal immigration, gentlemen waving nightsticks around outside of poling places, a mob trashing a Whole Foods store a few months ago, the vandalism associated with the OWS movement, the people that were held hostage on the west coast when a port was occupied, etc, etc, etc. The list can go on and on. I wonder how many arrests were made. Heck, you might even be able to gather 4 friends and try to kick a HS kids head in without consequence as long as a the right people make the right claims.

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Law enforcement is, by definition, selective. LEOs do not arrest every legal infraction they see, nor do DAs/SAs prosecute every arrest.

It's not a new concept -- in fact, it is part and parcel with law enforcement.

Article on 2011 gunsales just came out (9 millon sold last year) http://gunzoo.com/news/Gun-sales-soar-in-2011


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Well, wisconsin just had 65K+ people apply for permits (probably way more than that now) How much of the december nics checks do you think were from applicants getting their long awaited for christmas gifts? (I think there were 150K nics checks in december).

Just wait until IL passes CCW. Then we'll see a real gun bubble.

I would be interested in a study of gunbuyers by age in relation to demographic trends. For instance, which states/areas of the country have the biggest change in gun owners totals. What is the age of new buyers? Are we experiencing a wave of people becoming adults(like a mini-baby boomer generation)? Are we seeing an increase or decrease in the ratio of eligible gun buyers per total population? Has anyone made a scientific study like this?

I would be interested in a study of gunbuyers by age in relation to demographic trends. For instance, which states/areas of the country have the biggest change in gun owners totals. What is the age of new buyers? Are we experiencing a wave of people becoming adults(like a mini-baby boomer generation)? Are we seeing an increase or decrease in the ratio of eligible gun buyers per total population? Has anyone made a scientific study like this?

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Fascinating thought. It would also be interesting to see a breakdown by the home addresses of the buyers and see those little dots charted out on a map so we can see the neighborhoods in which people buy guns. Comparing that to census data, we would see socio/economic and demographic trends, as well as comparisons to crime rates in those neighborhoods.

(note: i'm not taking into account the inherent "big brother" ramifications of such a study. Just speaking from a purely academic standpoint.)

Keep trying LGS's. Mine is more often than not busy but usually only a few day turn around on guns that aren't in high demand. And those are well under MSRP.

I hope the buying trend continues or increases. It remains an industry that continues to employ Americans (even if many are made out of the country, it takes people to import/assemble if necessary, market, sell, ship, repair, etc.)

Maybe if it's a big part of our economy and anti's start to realize it they'll have second thoughts.

Quote[NBC just bought the Versus Channel, which airs the show 3 Gun Nation and a ton of other firearm and hunting related shows so the desensitization of firearms is underway. ] If NBC Did buy them then you can bet that those shows won't be there much longer as they are influenced by the anti gun Democrats . the only way they will keep it is if they are making a lot of money . from it . It isn't part of there normal programing agenda.JMI.