How one would defeat an upcoming Gun Control Ban
There are 435 seats in the house this year and the Republican Party took a little hit this election losing 8 seats to the Democrats. Nevertheless, the Republican Party still holds a relatively comfortable majority of the house.
Here is a breakdown from this election:
Party As of November 2012 /After the 2012 Election
Democratic 193/ 201
Republican 242/ 234
Total 435/ 435
With this said, with a controversial and heated topic such as gun control there can be lost votes on both side of the party line so Gun Rights advocates cant assume that they are safe just because they have more than 218 Republican seats. The reason for this is because of swing seats.
Safe Democrat Held Seats (more than 56% total votes)[2010]: 127
Safe Republican Held Seats (more than 56% total votes)[2010]: 186
Tossup Races (won with less than 56% total votes)[2010]: 122
Total 435
New York Times Political Report Race Rating -- U.S. House Competitive Districts July, 2012
Solid D 156
Lean D 23
Tossup 25
Lean R 32
Solid R 199
Looking at the above graphs there are a number of swing seats to take in consideration. The top graph is from the US Census Bureau Data from 2010 and shows all races where the seats are held or are within a 56% tolerance. The second graph is from 2012 and from the New York Times, showing pre-2012 election swing seats. The total number of seats in play is what will win or defeat any new Gun Control bill.
Congressmen in swing seats are more willing to vote across party lines as they need to try and win over a large portion of their constituency that did not vote for them, while at the same time they do not want to alienate their party base as for them every vote really counts. We can assume that all solid Democrats will vote Pro-Gun Control and all Republicans will vote Pro-Gun Rights, although a few will cross party lines. This is good news for Republicans as they have around 40 more Safe Seats than Democrats, however not enough to secure a sure win on any party-aligned bill. Bottom line, the middle will play a very big role in this vote.
Plan of Action: Write every Congressman from your state in the below list of Tossup Races, both Republican and Democrat. Express your views as a resident of your home state.
Close Races in 2010 - (Congressional District, Democrat %, Republican %)
Alabama
..2d 49 51
Alaska
Arizona
..1st 44 50
..3d 41 52
..5th 43 52
..7th 50 44
..8th 49 47
Arkansas
..1st 43 52
California
..3d 43 50
..11th 48 47
..20th 52 48
..26th 37 54
..44th 44 56
..45th 42 51
..47th 53 39
Colorado
..3d 46 50
..4th 41 52
..7th 53 42
Connecticut
..4th 51 47
..5th 52 45
Delaware
Florida
..2d 41 54
..12th 41 48
..22d 46 54
..25th 43 52
Georgia
..2d 51 49
..8th 47 53
Hawaii
..1st 53 47
Idaho
..1st 41 51
Illinois
..8th 48 48
..10th 49 51
..14th 45 51
..17th 43 53
Indiana
..2d 48 47
..9th 42 52
Iowa
..1st 50 48
..2d 51 46
..3d 51 46
Kansas
Kentucky
..3d 55 44
..6th 50 50
Louisiana \3
Maine
..2d 55 45
Maryland
..1st 42 54
Massachusetts
..4th 54 43
..5th 55 42
..10th 47 42
Michigan
..1st 41 52
..5th 53 44
..7th 45 50
..9th 50 47
Minnesota
..1st 49 44
..6th 40 53
..7th 55 38
..8th 47 48
Mississippi
..1st 41 55
..4th 47 52
Missouri
..3d 49 47
..4th 45 50
..5th 53 44
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
..3d 47 48
New Hampshire
..1st 42 54
..2d 47 48
New Jersey
..3d 47 50
..6th 55 44
..12th 53 46
New Mexico
..1st 52 48
..2d 45 55
New York
..1st 49 39
..2d 54 34
..4th 54 39
..13th 46 42
..19th 46 41
..20th 44 45
..22d 51 39
..23d 45 40
..24th 45 43
..25th 48 38
..29th 0 44
North Carolina
..2d 49 49
..7th 54 46
..8th 53 44
..11th 54 46
..13th 55 45
North Dakota
45 55
Ohio
..1st 46 51
..6th 45 50
..10th 53 44
..12th 41 56
..13th 56 44
..15th 41 54
..16th 41 52
..17th 54 30
..18th 40 54
Oklahoma
Oregon
..1st 55 42
..4th 54 44
..5th 51 46
Pennsylvania
..3d 44 56
..4th 51 49
..7th 44 55
..8th 46 54
..10th 45 55
..11th 45 55
..12th 51 49
..15th 39 54
..17th 56 44
Rhode Island
..1st 51 44
South Carolina
..2d 44 53
..5th 45 55
South Dakota
46 48
Tennessee
Texas
..15th 56 42
..23d 44 49
..25th 53 45
..27th 47 48
Utah
..2d 50 46
Vermont
Virginia
..2d 42 53
..5th 47 51
..9th 46 51
..11th 49 49
Washington
..2d 51 49
..3d 47 53
..8th 48 52
..9th 55 45
West Virginia
..1st 50 50
Wisconsin
..3d 50 46
..7th 44 52
..8th 45 55
Wyoming
There are 435 seats in the house this year and the Republican Party took a little hit this election losing 8 seats to the Democrats. Nevertheless, the Republican Party still holds a relatively comfortable majority of the house.
Here is a breakdown from this election:
Party As of November 2012 /After the 2012 Election
Democratic 193/ 201
Republican 242/ 234
Total 435/ 435
With this said, with a controversial and heated topic such as gun control there can be lost votes on both side of the party line so Gun Rights advocates cant assume that they are safe just because they have more than 218 Republican seats. The reason for this is because of swing seats.
Safe Democrat Held Seats (more than 56% total votes)[2010]: 127
Safe Republican Held Seats (more than 56% total votes)[2010]: 186
Tossup Races (won with less than 56% total votes)[2010]: 122
Total 435
New York Times Political Report Race Rating -- U.S. House Competitive Districts July, 2012
Solid D 156
Lean D 23
Tossup 25
Lean R 32
Solid R 199
Looking at the above graphs there are a number of swing seats to take in consideration. The top graph is from the US Census Bureau Data from 2010 and shows all races where the seats are held or are within a 56% tolerance. The second graph is from 2012 and from the New York Times, showing pre-2012 election swing seats. The total number of seats in play is what will win or defeat any new Gun Control bill.
Congressmen in swing seats are more willing to vote across party lines as they need to try and win over a large portion of their constituency that did not vote for them, while at the same time they do not want to alienate their party base as for them every vote really counts. We can assume that all solid Democrats will vote Pro-Gun Control and all Republicans will vote Pro-Gun Rights, although a few will cross party lines. This is good news for Republicans as they have around 40 more Safe Seats than Democrats, however not enough to secure a sure win on any party-aligned bill. Bottom line, the middle will play a very big role in this vote.
Plan of Action: Write every Congressman from your state in the below list of Tossup Races, both Republican and Democrat. Express your views as a resident of your home state.
Close Races in 2010 - (Congressional District, Democrat %, Republican %)
Alabama
..2d 49 51
Alaska
Arizona
..1st 44 50
..3d 41 52
..5th 43 52
..7th 50 44
..8th 49 47
Arkansas
..1st 43 52
California
..3d 43 50
..11th 48 47
..20th 52 48
..26th 37 54
..44th 44 56
..45th 42 51
..47th 53 39
Colorado
..3d 46 50
..4th 41 52
..7th 53 42
Connecticut
..4th 51 47
..5th 52 45
Delaware
Florida
..2d 41 54
..12th 41 48
..22d 46 54
..25th 43 52
Georgia
..2d 51 49
..8th 47 53
Hawaii
..1st 53 47
Idaho
..1st 41 51
Illinois
..8th 48 48
..10th 49 51
..14th 45 51
..17th 43 53
Indiana
..2d 48 47
..9th 42 52
Iowa
..1st 50 48
..2d 51 46
..3d 51 46
Kansas
Kentucky
..3d 55 44
..6th 50 50
Louisiana \3
Maine
..2d 55 45
Maryland
..1st 42 54
Massachusetts
..4th 54 43
..5th 55 42
..10th 47 42
Michigan
..1st 41 52
..5th 53 44
..7th 45 50
..9th 50 47
Minnesota
..1st 49 44
..6th 40 53
..7th 55 38
..8th 47 48
Mississippi
..1st 41 55
..4th 47 52
Missouri
..3d 49 47
..4th 45 50
..5th 53 44
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
..3d 47 48
New Hampshire
..1st 42 54
..2d 47 48
New Jersey
..3d 47 50
..6th 55 44
..12th 53 46
New Mexico
..1st 52 48
..2d 45 55
New York
..1st 49 39
..2d 54 34
..4th 54 39
..13th 46 42
..19th 46 41
..20th 44 45
..22d 51 39
..23d 45 40
..24th 45 43
..25th 48 38
..29th 0 44
North Carolina
..2d 49 49
..7th 54 46
..8th 53 44
..11th 54 46
..13th 55 45
North Dakota
45 55
Ohio
..1st 46 51
..6th 45 50
..10th 53 44
..12th 41 56
..13th 56 44
..15th 41 54
..16th 41 52
..17th 54 30
..18th 40 54
Oklahoma
Oregon
..1st 55 42
..4th 54 44
..5th 51 46
Pennsylvania
..3d 44 56
..4th 51 49
..7th 44 55
..8th 46 54
..10th 45 55
..11th 45 55
..12th 51 49
..15th 39 54
..17th 56 44
Rhode Island
..1st 51 44
South Carolina
..2d 44 53
..5th 45 55
South Dakota
46 48
Tennessee
Texas
..15th 56 42
..23d 44 49
..25th 53 45
..27th 47 48
Utah
..2d 50 46
Vermont
Virginia
..2d 42 53
..5th 47 51
..9th 46 51
..11th 49 49
Washington
..2d 51 49
..3d 47 53
..8th 48 52
..9th 55 45
West Virginia
..1st 50 50
Wisconsin
..3d 50 46
..7th 44 52
..8th 45 55
Wyoming
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