When are ammo prices and supply expected to get more normal

I wouldn't expect anything to change at least until the administration announces their actual intended course of action and then people get a look at what Congressional response is going to be. Given that there are other things going on as well, like their postponement of the fiscal cliff stuff, it would not surprise me if things are unresolved for another few months.

We all decided to go back to the normal prices next Thursday.

(It was too easy...)

Glad you have a sense of humor!

It's a bit like the stock market and an unsettled business climate - the market hates instability. No one really knows exactly what the outcome will be, so the cycle begins - and apparently the supply chain has no ability to keep up.

My guess the earliest possible stabilization will be March. Maybe summer.

You won't have to wait till thursday, they will be starting their pre-pre-pre Christmas sales Monday with all the stuff they did not sell last Christmas. (LOL)

Jim

Where was the poll for the Thursday vote? Whatever, I'm just glad things will be back to normal.

I'd say part of what makes this unknowable is that we are seeing new demand based on fear, and it's not easy to quantify that.

When they had the Cash for Clunkers program, they said it just moved future demand into the present. I'd guess some of that is happening now, but probably more of what's going on is guys like us buying things we might not have otherwise just because we're afraid it won't be there for long. You can't really look at historical trends to quantify how deep this demand is.

The last big shortage (2009) took about six months to play out, IIRC.

I'd honestly give it no more then 30 days more, unless something major changes. Beyond that point, people are going to be either stocked up, or out of money. Either way the buying frenzy will have slowed down, give it maybe another month for production to catch up. So IMO two months from now things should be normalizing unless something major changes.

Edited to add: The last big shortage caught suppliers by surprise big time, and they had never had to ramp up for that level of demand. This one was wasn't quiet as big a surprise, and manufactures have been better able to meet production demand.

-Jenrick

It's the new normal.

This is a fear cycle...good luck calling when it will end.

The first issue you have is many thousand new gun owners...and they all want ammo to go with their guns. Those buyers alone could have drained all the ammo from the shelves...just buying a normal amount of ammo to go with their new guns.

Next throw in the panicking hoards who feel they need to stockpile ammo...good luck calling when that might taper off. I really don't even know why they feel the need make panic ammo purchases to begin with.

I can certainly understand buying things now that might get banned...and items high on that list would appear to be magazines that hold more than 10 rounds and many types of semi-auto rifles. If you've always wanted one or if you want multiples to keep in the safe...I get it...it makes great sense to buy them now to be sure you can have them.

Ammo on the other hand...no clue what has caused the panic...I don't know of anyone in DC trying to ban ammunition. Crowd mentality I guess...one one sheep sees another run...they all start to run...the history of "markets" is full of stories like this. Once the crowd starts running for the door...nobody wants to be the last one out.

Sooner or later people will run out of fear, money, and credit and the supply chain will catch up. I'm not sure that prices will come all the way down to pre-panic levels though. If I was a manufacturer I'd bring them down slowly to try to find the "new" equilibrium level.

If I had to guess...and this is just one guys guess...things will look more like "normal" sometime in late 2013.

hso said:

No one knows.

Click to expand...

Chuck Norris knows...

the worst I've seen with ammo 7.62 x 39 back ordered... expected due Sept 2013... wow... look online... everybody is wiped out... all the cheap stuff... gone...

A lot of ammo comes from overseas. I think that will be no longer an option for importation. So my guess on when ammo prices will go back to "previous conditions" aka "normal", then my answer would be...never. Or not anytime soon at any rate.

I picked up a case of tula 7.62x39 just today for $299. Was completely shocked to see it though. After talking to an employee he said 4 cases were buried under some bird shot. They were uncovered an hour before I got there and I got the last one.

There were many boxes at the gun show today, at 1:00 PM. Sales did not look any hotter than normal. Maybe few regular customers are willing to buy at these prices.

Are most people waiting for the 'price bubble' to deflate? I refuse to pay .85-.90/rd. for Prvi .303, but with 3,000 rds. (mostly cordite surplus),
you can afford to wait.

wrs840: In July '09 a seller in Keene, NH had over 40,000 rds. of Russian 7.62x39 on Gunbroker, all at the same time. Some of us counted at least that much.

.45ACP is through the roof. That doesn't make any sense at all even compared to the total hysteria the last 25 days or so. That's when you really know it's a market gone amuck.

In the sea of craziness, Quantico steps forward and say they will not further mark up their PMAG's. Last ones I bought from them were $10 each. Yes, I know he didn't have any. I did immediately buy an OD STR buttstock from them, so I guess his tact worked on me.

Contrast them to guys across the aisle from them at the show. They had a huge jobsite tool locker, say 48X24x24 or so full of PMAG's and they were selling them for $60 each. They had some few buyers - mostly guys with new guns and needed a mag. Most people were just shaking their heads......

Probably a few months more. Could be longer - could be shorter. It'll calm down eventually though. The high prices and shortages are being fueled by rampant buying, but the public can't afford to keep buying at the rate they're currently doing forever. Eventually people have enough to last them or they run out of disposable income.

6-8 months until the next shooting/panic/whitehouse decree starts it all over again. The gun show I was at today was a mad house.

There was a 1 hour wait just to get in the door all day long. Double the normal size crowd easily.