When will the run on the guns end?

IMO, After the storm passes and the AWB and all other of Hussein Obama's dirty political tricks are struck down.

I have no idea, prices keep going up, ammo supply keeps going down. I was in Academy sporting goods today at about 2 pm on a Thursday, ammo selection was nearly non existant on all popular calibers of handgun and rifle ammo, the ONLY handgun ammo they had was for 45LC, I was a bit surprised at the selection of rifle ammo, with a little in .270, .308 and 30-06, otherwise it was lots of choice in the more obscure stuff, no 5.56,7,62x39, no .22 of ANY KIND, not even .22WRM, just a couple of boxes of .17HMR. Shotgun shells still had a good selection of bird and target shot, I think I saw 2 small boxes of 12 GA Zombie buck shot, no slugs, etc. There were also over a dozen people lined up at the counter filling out or waiting on NICS paperwork, remember this was just after 2PM on a THURSDAY. I bought a couple of boxes of target load shotgun shells to replenish my supply that I used up a couple of weeks ago and got out of there.

Here's the problem. (Well, a problem at least.)

Say a new package of legislation to restrict Second Amendment rights is defeated in the House. (I'm knocking on wood as I type.) A short while after, prices start to come down as supply of firearms-related goods rises. "Well, I hope you hoarders and panic buyers learned your lesson," the grossly unprepared gun-owning Walmart shoppers will gloat. Back to business as usual, right? Wrong. The election campaigns of 2014 may very well start another run on guns, ammo, etc.

The more I think about what's going on right now, the more I think the aim behind it is to use this as an issue to try to take back the House in 2014. A final 2 years in office with both Houses of Congress under your thumb, a President could "secure his legacy" by ramming through darn near whatever he wants. My point is not to have some discussion of politics but rather to point out that even if things come back to some version of sanity the next supply crisis might be right around the corner.

If I didn't know better, I'd say the President owned stock in the firearms industry...

No time soon I bet. Until the pols turn off the heat, expect things to be hot and stay warmish in this regards. Human nature.
New guns for new gun owners means new ammo sales as well.

I know a lot of recent sales are repeat and/or hardcores stocking up... but if you can imagine how many new gun owners joined the ranks once they knew the gov't intent of banning something they felt they need, and while it might be human nature to want ANYTHING prohibited, it does say a lot about our forefathers wisdom, human nature and the nature of gov't.

The D party might have to seriously rethink alienating how many Americans with "Common Sense"? The R party might want to seriously rethink, "How do we get them back on our side and active?"

Gun and Ammo makers need to seriously think, "How can we manage more shifts and not get left holding the bag?"

And all this debate needs to seriously gather the attention of these new gun owners to fully realize the RKBAs and WHY it is so important, the media be damned all. I really hope new gun buyers are smart enough to know when the MSM is lying or misdirecting and that their govt is worth closely watching and guarding our few remaining freedoms from both, not to mention wise enough to take a class or two and to stay and practice safety.

But back to the question... No time soon. Maybe summertime, maybe later after each State govt deals with their own "frenzy" and things settle down there. Look at what the Empire State did in their "frenzy" to pass something into law. Screwed over their own Coppers to the level of mere citizenry. As soon as they "correct" that oversight, another run on gunshops by the proles who will realize the "King" only takes care of the "Kings Men" and a favored few. More Cause to empty already bare naked gunstores.

But it surely is interuppting my fun activities and budget. (poor me)

Time to take up archery or spear-chucking perhaps...

Gun and Ammo makers need to seriously think, "How can we manage more shifts and not get left holding the bag?"

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Ammunition manufactures are safe..There is not one single proposed ban, law, etc. to do anything to ammunition.

Its all these small AR manufactures, that may just get squashed due to the supply's (parts) going to the big companies first. Its no secret that most use common suppliers.

They got to be able to build them before they can even think of adding more shifts.

It's over. Watch gunbroker as the panic buyers start panic selling. Already seeing guns that were $2000 last week, going for $1200.

guyfromohio said:

It's over. Watch gunbroker as the panic buyers start panic selling. Already seeing guns that were $2000 last week, going for $1200.

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Yeah RIght.. You mean like this one:
http://www.gunbroker.com/Auction/ViewItem.aspx?Item=325681137

Perhaps right after the mid terms elections?

90 days after it drops off the news cycle it should begin.

We won't get back to 650$ M&P sports....... ever. 750, maybe, in a year ? I dunno...

The 94 awb was something a lot of people thought could not happen. When it did, for 10 long years people were reminded all the time that it could. This time there is no doubt it could. I think it could continue until they stop introducing legislation in either the house is or senate regarding new awb's. I hope the prices come down, I think they will from the levels they are now, but not back to where they were. The risk for buyers will be how far will they drop once stock is back reliably. How long do you wait before the next run.

The ones you can already plan on are the next congressional elections will cause one....2014 then then 2016 election. In between? Anything in the news or any legislation could keep things going.

With states like NY doing what they are doing, it will never be the same again.

Ohio Gun Guy said:

...The risk for buyers will be how far will they drop once stock is back reliably. How long do you wait before the next run.

The ones you can already plan on are the next congressional elections will cause one....2014 then then 2016 election. In between? Anything in the news or any legislation could keep things going.

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I agree. Don't be unprepared if you can help it. Ever.

I'd give it one year....by that time focus will be on the mid-term elections (no politician will touch the topic), and supply chain will begin to get re-stocked......unless there is another mass shooting.

Rembrandt said:

I'd give it one year....by that time focus will be on the mid-term elections (no politician will touch the topic), and supply chain will begin to get re-stocked......unless there is another mass shooting.

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And if the House goes to anti-gun legislators following those elections?

I forgot to add as others have noted.

All it will take is one more shooting up a gun free school with unprotected kids... and it is wise to point out that the govts responsible are doing all they can to keep the innocent fish in their barrels with minimal to no guardians around. Heck, NY just neutered their own Coppers.

I wonder why that is?

When I went to school in another lifetime in another country, (Indep. MO in the 60s), most all of my male teachers were WWII or Korea vets and men I admired as heros. I really wish we could get ALL of our returning vets into that line of work instead of working for wally world. I would somehow feel a tad bit better for our kids in school knowing they had lions as role models and mentors prowling the halls and classrooms.

Well... an old man can dream can't he?

When will it all calm down?

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When people run out of money or max out their credit cards.

Preacher. said:

Congress is not going to give him much help, so are we out of hot water as far as gun control proposals?

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No, we are not out of the woods as far as government action. The gun control folks will be waiting for a new event to pounce on.

I feel the Republicans are in danger of getting tossed out of office in the mid-terms if they do not start to work together with the Democrats and proceed with good, viable legislation on the budget, economy, taxes and spending. The public is fast getting tired of the gridlock in Washington and the Congress, both Republicans and Democrats, needs to take the initiative back from the administrative branch.

If nothing else happens, prices and inventories will take a year or more before they get back near pre-election levels.

This wont end in 2014 but possibly 2016 if the Repblicans can find decent people to run as Pres and VP.
I suggest Jeb Bush and the present NM governor.
Best chance we have.

Ammunition manufactures are safe..There is not one single proposed ban, law, etc. to do anything to ammunition.

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HR142 - the "Stop Online Ammunition Sales Act" says otherwise:

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c113:H.R.142:

I have been calling, emailing and snail mailing my elected officials on all levels. Still, I do not think we will face a national AWB or major changes in our ability to by the currently available guns, ammo, and standard maagzines. Obama caved, and sent a clear message that its OK to back off of draconian gun laws to save your (Dem politicians) political hide.

There will be availilbility of guns and ammo on a more "normal" basis when more people realize that and there is evidence that Congress will not pass any new MEANINGLFUL legislation. Yes we may get a law formalizing some of the wishy-washy issues Obama had in his EO list, but for me the real threats come from the ultra blue states that have mobilized or going to mobilize and enact more stringent laws than they already have. We all know the culprits. NY (already done), MA, NJ, MD, IL, CA, CT, etc. That is why it is critical to continue pressuring local, state, and federal elected officials to not pass new gun laws or face being fired next election.

HR142 - the "Stop Online Ammunition Sales Act" says otherwise:

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c113:H.R.142:

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How does a bill to stop the retail end online, effect manufacturing?
wouldn't we just go back to how we did it for decades prior to online sales?

"How can we manage more shifts and not get left holding the bag?"

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You mean that ammo makers should be worried cause they are selling every single product they produce and have backordered business for 6 months? Left holding THAT bag? Why invest in doubling your capacity by purchasing new ammunition making equipment, hiring new employees etc when you expect the market to drop DOWN after everyone stops panicking? Be spending money for nothing. You'd only invest in changing everything if you expected demand to be this high forever...which no one expects that. High for 6 months maybe, or a year, but as long as everyone keeps saying this is temporary for the market, ammunition and other accessory makers have no motive to spend money to up their production when it will fall back to what it was before. Or even half of what it was before. Some guys will have spent their firearms budgets for the next 5 years in the last 2 months.

Congress is not going to give him much help, so are we out of hot water as far as gun control proposals?

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I certainly hope this is the case, but I refuse to stop worrying yet. Its highly unlikely that the anti-2A forces will get their whole "wishlist" but I feel there is still a chance some things will get forced through congress (the mag ban being the most likely IMO)

When is the gun craze gonna slow down, so the average guy can afford an AR again? When will ammo NOT be backordered?

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It could be soon, if as some people have opined the panic buyers have to start worrying about paying their bills and decide they need $1000 cash for food/rent/utilities/etc., more than they need that new AR they panic bought.

Or it could go on for the next year until things start to get back to normal. Many places claim to be back-ordered for 6 months or more already. IIRC it was about a year after the last election before things got back to normal.

Or something could happen and the Republicans may fold and let too many of these bills get passed, and things will never get back to the way they were. We still really just don't know.

You mean that ammo makers should be worried cause they are selling every single product they produce and have backordered business for 6 months? Left holding THAT bag?

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Some people have asked why the ammo makers just don't expand their production capacity by hiring more people, buying more equipment of building more plants. The thing is, the current ammo shortage is almost certainly a "bubble" that will burst eventually and they don't want to get caught with that investment in extra personnel/extra equipment/exta plants "bag" when it does.