ammo shortage

I have an abundance of 9mm FMJ. I have bought an extra box or two or three every time I see it on sale. I also made several bulk purchases the past two years from internet relaoders selling "blems". An ammo can generally holds 16 boxes of 9mm so I have at least 8,000 rounds in 50ct boxes plus the several thousand in bulk. I do shoot 9mm more than anything else so it will disappear quickly if I can't replenish but 10k should last me a while.
I have several other calibers as well but 9mm is what I have my hat hung on for a pistol round. These other calibers, 357,38,45,380 I generally only have a few boxes laying around and I actually bought a box of 357 and 2 boxes of 38 at Walmart last week. .380 would be the one I would run out of the quickest if I could not buy any more ammo.

.22 is the other one that concerns me because we shoot it more than any other caliber. 10k rounds is a short supply and that is all I have on hand. I gave a friend 3 50ct boxes on Friday so he could sight in a new rifle and it hit me how little I actually have on hand.

A few years back S.P. Fjestad, a well respected figure in the firearms industry and editor of "The Blue Book of Gun Values" wrote a couple of essays on the rising ammo prices and scarcities. This was not long after the panic following Obama's first election. Fjestad pointed out that now and then there are panic buying sprees, they last awhile and then things resume to more or less normal. But he pointed out a couple of things lately make the effects of the panic buying last longer and in some ways deeper than previously.

Over a decade of war has effected the availability and prices of basic components, brass, primers, copper, lead, powder, etc. Billions of rounds, of many calibers, have been produced and used by the U.S. military alone. The brass left lying all over the middle east. The components become scarcer, military contracts take priority, prices rise. This has effected the price of ammo available for the consumer market and the price of the components to produce it.

Add to this the increased use of ammo by law enforcement in the last couple of decades and particularly since 9-11. Money from the DHS and other agencies, flooded into police depts. of all sizes for "anti-terrorist" programs. Everybody got new toys and they needed training. This drove up the availability and price of ammo.

The other big factor is the economy. Fuel prices have risen and transportation is added to the costs of both production and distribution. The price of copper, brass, lead, etc. have all risen. Same with the cost of insurance, etc.

So when a panic hits the effects last longer and bite deeper.

Keep in mind that after the first panic the prices never returned to pre-panic levels.

tipoc

D.O.D. and law enforcement contracts DO take priority. Our military and police cannot get all of the ammo they want. Our ammo industry is not like General Motors. It is a small industry that is struggling 24/7 a week to meet orders.

Fortunately both my SIG P239 and P229 have .357Sig and .40S&W barrels. Now I can switch back and forth depending on ammo availability. Both of these serve as my EDC depending on my daily activities.
As far as the ammo shortage goes, this too will pass.

I give it 3 months to the best of my uneducated POV!

Jhass said:

I saw this coming last year and stocked on reloading supplies. I don't feel like I need 5000 rounds. I did buy a 17 hmr because the bullets are plentiful.

Probably this time next year things will be calmed down.

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I might look into that as well just to have something to shoot at the range absent breaking the bank--Don't know too much about the caliber so I best start reading up...

I always thought .22lr would be plentiful but I have been proven wrong about that (I have lots on hand but I don't want to deplete my supplies if I can't simultaneously replenish).

Drail said:

D.O.D. and law enforcement contracts DO take priority. Our military and police cannot get all of the ammo they want. Our ammo industry is not like General Motors. It is a small industry that is struggling 24/7 a week to meet orders.

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So why is .40S&W so readily available?

While nobody knows for sure, I think we will begin seeing things getting better by this fall.

... Our ammo industry is not like General Motors. It is a small industry that is struggling 24/7 a week to meet orders.

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Do you mean the munitions industry in the U.S.? I'm not so sure that it's a small, struggling, industry. I believe, collectively, that it's one of the largest in the world. It supplies a large domestic and international commercial market, the military and law enforcement needs of the U.S. and has a thriving business supplying military and law enforcement needs with foreign contracts.

I'll just add this bit from a introduction to the "2013 Small Arms Ammunition Manufacturing Industry in the U.S. and it's international Trade Report"

The industry's revenue for the year 2011 was reported at $3.6 billion USD, with an estimated gross profit of 35.73%. Import was valued at $.9 billion USD from 50 countries. The industry also exported $2.6 billion USD worth of merchandise to 120 countries. Adding import value to and subtracting export value from the industry's shipment value, the total domestic demand for the industry in 2011 was $1.9 billion USD.

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tipoc

I can find plenty of .45, thank god I have guns that can use it. Last time it was only .40 that was available. This time, not so much. Forget about any .223. It's gone.

I reload but components are worse off than boxed ammo. So I'm buying again.

.40S&W just isn't killer popular. I mean it's sorta popular but nothing like 9MM, 45ACP, .223, 22LR.

Going out on a limb (GUESS) - 38/357Mag might be on par with .40S&W in sales volume to JQ Public (don't flame me) not sure.

I mean .gov buys tons of .40S&W but the general population? I'm not seeing it.

10k rounds [of 9mm] is a short supply and that is all I have on hand.

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Well, here's the reason a shortages happen.

If you asked yourself BEFORE the panic, I doubt you would have worded it this way. You would have felt just peachy waiting, as you were, to buy a few boxes here and there, only when they were on sale. If you felt like your supply was so short, you would have bought thousands of rounds when they went on sale or w/e was avail at the "regular" price.

Now that everyone is feeling the same way at the same time, poof. No ammo.

I dunno how many rounds you shoot for recreation, but 10k sounds like a pretty decent amount, to me. It's hard to feel sorry for someone that can only sent 2k rds downrange a month, rather than 4k, lol. It sucks to not have more, but after 10k rounds, it seems a little like crying about a shortage of cocaine and hookers. Do you have a full auto 9mm, or what???

Actually S&Wfan, I have heard they put in another order for 47+ billion. I forgot where i read that, but that is a substantial amount of munitions.

jhco50 said:

Actually S&Wfan, I have heard they put in another order for 47+ billion. I forgot where i read that, but that is a substantial amount of munitions.

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Care to back that one up? Sounds like a lot of "internet truth" to me.

I got caught flatfooted in the last shortage, and swore to myself it wold not happen again, so I currently have a two year supply of ammo on hand, and I have not purchased any ammo in the last three or four months. As much as I would hate to if push comes to shove I will limit my shooting practice time.

With the last scare there was no pending Legislation to ban firearms or limit magazine capacity as there is now. So I think this panic may last longer than the first one. I use the word panic as I believe that is the main reason for the current ammo shortage. Remember there is no pending legislation to limit ammo and no reason I can think of to buy thousands of rounds of ammo just to have it stashed away. Buy what yo need to meet your shooting needs with a normal back up supply.

oldbear said:

Remember there is no pending legislation to limit ammo

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There is at least one bill proposed that would eliminate online sales. Various states have proposed "must show ID" for ammo sales, others have proposed a NICS check for ammo sales and others capping ammo at 1000 rds (a mere 2 bricks of .22)

and no reason I can think of to buy thousands of rounds of ammo just to have it stashed away.

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None at all, eh?

Buy what yo need to meet your shooting needs with a normal back up supply.

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These "un-normal times" require a serious reevaluation of what number of rounds constitute a reasonable back up supply. For some folks, that's a different number, usually higher, than it was Dec 13th.

I dunno how many rounds you shoot for recreation, but 10k sounds like a pretty decent amount, to me.

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Depends on how much you shoot.

A few months ago when I bought a Ruger LC9 I put over a thousand rounds through it in eight days.

Several times a week I shoot low light/dark with laser/light equipped guns (home range). That's at least 200 rounds each evening and that's not counting what I might shoot during the day.

Yesterday there were three ladies and one man shooting as my guest. I supply the ammunition and some of the guns. I don't even know how much .223 they blasted through my Kel Tec PLR and that doesn't count the 22, 32, 380 and 9mm they shot.

A good time was had by all.


So, 10,000 rounds can go pretty fast.

M2 Carbine said:

So, 10,000 rounds can go pretty fast.

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Yeah, a lotta people don't get that.

According to some people I talked to who went through the same thing in 2008, it took at least 6months for supply to normalize and catch up with demand. That means about around July at the earliest, optimistically. Although when that time comes prices will have a "new normal" i.e. a box of 9mm will be $15 instead of $11.

If gun owners have learned their lesson, many should wise up to the fact they should have a year or more's amount of ammo put aside. So the smart ones will will keep buying so as to not be caught with their pants down again

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The problem with buying a year's worth of ammo, is that not everyone can afford to buy that much ammo in a short amount of time, and if everyone bought a year's supply of ammo then we would still have the shortage we are having now.

Jhass said:

I saw this coming last year and stocked on reloading supplies. I don't feel like I need 5000 rounds. I did buy a 17 hmr because the bullets are plentiful.

Probably this time next year things will be calmed down.

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Last year? I saw this coming in 07/08 when a communist got elected POTUS. Now after four years of his incessant lying, brazen collectivist intentions, and scandal after scandal he gets re-elected in an electoral landslide? You can be assured that there is no tin-foil hat conspiracy theory that I'd be stupid enough to dismiss out of hand.

The walmart class of ammo buyer, the ones who foolishly thought Obama was a great guy, and always buy their ammo one box at a time, they may as well dump their guns, because they are not going to be able to afford them for the next four years, just like gasoline for their cars.

Thats not conspiracy, thats just a painful fact.

Spymaster....spot on with all points.

justice06rr said:

According to some people I talked to who went through the same thing in 2008, it took at least 6months for supply to normalize...

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Except this isn't anything like 2008

The problem with buying a year's worth of ammo, is that not everyone can afford to buy that much ammo in a short amount of time,

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If someone foolishly waits until the last minute, you're right. Warning signs have been there since the 60's, but did everyone sleep thru the 2008 shortage? There was at least a 4 yr warning this time.

if everyone bought a year's supply of ammo then we would still have the shortage we are having now.

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Not if it had been spaced out over 4 yrs.

Hangingrock said:

a wise man urinates when he can not when he must.

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Very true!

Been scouring for .22 but also have been buying boxes of everything I shoot when I happen to run across it. I reload all centerfire I shoot and am pretty well stocked on components from the last scare, just wish I had time to reload as much as I should.
As mentioned by others- I have had little trouble getting .40 which seems odd given the government is the largest user of that round, and all the chat of DHS buying literally tons of ammo.

I can't see this getting better any time soon. It's definitely worse than 2008/2009. I could always find ammo at the gunshows during the last ammo drought. I refuse to even try to get into a gunshow at this point. 1hr waits to get in aren't for me.
I could always find ammo at Walmart after midnight during 2008/2009. Most of the employees didn't mind opening a few boxes on the pallets when I showed up at the gun counter at 1am (shift worker). The last time I was in Walmart, the guy working the gun counter said they haven't gotten ANY ammo in during the past week.
I've got a decent amount of ammo put away but if I keep shooting at my current rate I'll start getting worried about replacing it in a few months. I doubt that things will get better anytime soon because the income tax refund checks will be coming out and that money will no doubt go towards guns and ammo (for many).
I remember 2009 and the Dems working for Obamacare. It took a year to get it passed with a majority in both the House and Senate. If they work on gun control for the next year without resolving things then the current drought could become the new norm.

Run on Ammo...

Definitely unprecedented but ironically not unexpected (for those that 'had a hunch and IMO it's not rocket science ). If you remove the variable of emotion from the equation and logically look at the situation, it's not too difficult to see that with the election of a BO as POTUS, a left-leaning Chicago Democrat of whom is clearly on "The Record" as being Pro-Gun-Control (look at his anti-2A votes both in the State and Federal Congress) that at the very least a "verbatim review" of 2A would be on the Administration's Agenda. Once he chose Eric (Fast&Furious) Holder as AGOTUS (again someone clearly on the record as pro-gun control and who is now The Nation's Top Cop ) I knew the assault on 2A was "on." And if that weren't bad enough, BO then gets the opportunity to "define" the future direction of the Nation's Highest Court for the next generation to come with his two appointments of left-leaning Justices Sotomayor and Kagan. Looks as though to be almost certain another SC Justice or two will either retire or expire during BO's second term meaning that a 're-interpretation' of 2A will be heard...One of The First Lady's campaign speeches last year clearly was centered around the importance of her husband's re-election pertaining to the future direction of the SC. So how this current predicament comes as a surprise to anyone escapes me .

BTW, I briefly alluded to F&F in the aforementioned and it warrants a thread in and of itself--but I maintain that whole "fiasco" was yet another example and illustration of the Administration's hostility towards 2A. The operation IMO was geared to promote the Administration's objective of the absolute necessity of Gun-Control in that the resulting carnage of the inherently flawed covert plan would "beg" for the implementation of stricter gun-control legislation...