How do you know when a new cartridge has made it?

After reading through this whole thread I see some serious replys that make a lot of sense and a few that are only funny. To me, a cartridge has made it when the reloading companies move that caliber die to the group that has regular prices vs elevated prices. Like Group A for RCBS.

Another indicator is when you start finding lots of fired brass at your regular shooting spots.

Its interesting to look back in the past at all of the newly released cartridges. The WSM's, the RUM's, the SAUM's, the Nosler line up, ect. And there are generations before any of these. I wonder if there was speculation about the 270 Winchester, back in the day? Or the 243? Being adopted by the Military defiantly adds a few % points towards a cartridge being successful. In the competition world, a few big wins boost a cartridges popularity in the rather small world of competitive shooters.

In the words of Kermit the Frog, "Frankly, Miss Piggy, I don't give a hoot!"

If the round performs to my satisfaction, for the reason for which I bought it, I do not care if anyone else likes it or not. I have functional rifles in 6.5x55 Swede and I'm not interested in long range target shooting or AR platforms. I have some Ruger No. 1 rifles in .257 Roberts, 7x57 Mauser, .303 British, 9.3x74mmR and .400 Nitro Express. Then there's a .308 Winchester bolt gun that will do about anything I need to do.

Nor do I own stock in any manufacturer.

mcb said:

I never worry about it too much. There are very few cartridges that are completely dead. It may be expensive but very few cartridges are completely dead.

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There are very few centerfire cartridges that are completely dead. Dead rimfire cartridges are dead for real.

ATLDave said:

There are very few centerfire cartridges that are completely dead. Dead rimfire cartridges are dead for real.

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Very true. 5mm Remington sort of came back from the dead. I would love to see 44 Henry make a come back.

When the U.S. Military adopts it.

Hangingrock said:

When the U.S. Military adopts it.

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This is like asking "when will I know whether my son is good at football?" and answering "after he signs his second NFL deal."

ATLDave said:

There are very few centerfire cartridges that are completely dead. Dead rimfire cartridges are dead for real.

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Being that so few gun owners handload, I would say that there are dozens of endangered and mostly extinct calibers.

When it isn’t EtronX and I have or can make brass for it.

Someone, after I am dead, will appreciate the amount of 7mm BR brass I purchased when I could.

I have never bought 6mm PPC brass and know others that haven’t either but it’s alive and well.

I think with enough marketing any could live and without it, some great ones don’t.

Look at how many versions of the 300 blk didn’t make it and now some think it’s the most versatile round ever made.....?

jmorris said:

When it isn’t EtronX and I have or can make brass for it.

Someone, after I am dead, will appreciate the amount of 7mm BR brass I purchased when I could.

I have never bought 6mm PPC brass and know others that haven’t either but it’s alive and well.

I think with enough marketing any could live and without it, some great ones don’t.

Look at how many versions of the 300 blk didn’t make it and now some think it’s the most versatile round ever made.....?

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Remington is still making Etronx primers. They are used in a few non-firearms related products (IE Venom less lethal grenade systems and the like) and they still sell them for reloaders with Etronx guns. And since a 700 can be re-barrelled in theory you can convert an Etronx gun to any cartridge that shares case head dimension with your original Etronix cartridges (22-250, 243Win, and 220 Swift) and uses small rifle primers. In theory we could make an etronix version of 6.5 Creedmore fairly easily.

I think the better way to gauge whether a cartridge has become commercially successful and likely to stay in regular production is the number of firearm manufacturers who offer it as a standard chambering (rather than limited run or special order) along with ammunition produced in a budget or value line from more than one mainline company. It seems like we get a new cartridge every few years promoted as the latest greatest wonder. Of course nothing is new under the sun with this technology and none of them will do something existing rounds cannot, however it must be marketed otherwise. Finding and filling a niche is the goal.

In this case they are hoping to catch on with midwest deer hunters. It might work out, might not. In my opinion a simple rule change in a couple states could super expand or crash that market entirely so if you like it, buy and enjoy but realize it could be on borrowed time.

The current straight wall rifle cartridge demand was simply an outgrowth of handgun rounds being allowed in a rifle format. The old handgun rules in these areas were written to keep people out of using a contender or x40 chambered in 30-30 or other true bottleneck rifle cartridges in the limited deer seasons. That's why when states initially agreed to rifles they have/had length restrictions in an attempt to define them as handgun rounds like 44 magnum and keep out older straight walled rifle chamberings.

These rules have been pretty fluid lately as states are seeing hunter numbers fall, so weapons changes like crossbows and rifles are being made to help recruitment for an important sector of these state's economies. As others mentioned if Illinois changed to pistol caliber rifles the 350 and the others kept their current definitions, the round would probably bloom. At these same time, it would likely crush an already shrinking market for inline muzzleloaders and new shotgun slug development.

It has "Made It" when everybody makes a model that fires it, and all the gun rags say it's "Obsolete", like 40 s&w...

Well, I purchased a bolt action rifle with 23.6" barrel plus a bolt action full stock carbine with 20" barrel in 7X64mm Brenneke. I don't beleive I'll find factory loaded ammo in this cartridge on the shelf at a small town Ace hardware store, nor at Walmart, nor at Academy Sports & Outdoors. There's zero question in my mind this cartridge first developed in 1917 has "made it". In fact, if this cartridge had been brought to the USA from Europe after WWI ended, it's unlikely IMO the .270 Winchester and the .280 Reminton would ever have come into existence.

The Internet and boutique ammunition factories like Reed's in Oklahoma have made this caliber a really attractive option for me to own & use. Factory ammunition from Norma in Sweden is right on the heels of 7mm Remington Magnum factory ammo. There's no Ackley Improved version of this cartridge.

Walmart availability WAS a good indicator. The most solid one is when wolf/tula start making it.

Regional success is also subjective.

My LGS carries 17 different flavors of 6.5 Creedmoor. They carry 18 of .308.

Clearly, the 6.5 Creedmoor is an overwhelming success.

The .450 Bushmaster can be found at nearly every gunshop in Texas and the Midwest.

The guy at my LGS had never heard of it. A Sportsman's Warehouse 50 miles away sells one flavor of it.

So, to someone here in Idaho, the .450 Bushmaster is a failure while the 6.5 is a resounding success.

When ot moves out of it's parents basment and survives starving for a year!
Seriously when three of the larger manufacturwrs offer a finished firearm that is inventoried/stocked by them and you routinely find fired brass at the local pit/range I feel it has made it.

There was one of the outdoor magazines that covered this years ago.

It's called the Two Dot test.

When the gas station in Two Dot Montana carries it, the cartridge has made it.

Texas10mm said:

There was one of the outdoor magazines that covered this years ago.

It's called the Two Dot test.

When the gas station in Two Dot Montana carries it, the cartridge has made it.

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That's funny, but probably true.

when it's got more hate mail than loading data.....

Everything cartridge I use is well over 100 years old. No newbies allowed.

When it starts showing up on the shelves of the smaller Wal-Mart stores.

brewer12345 said:

Every year or two it seems like the manufacturers come up with the latest and greatest new cartridge. Some make it, some don't, and some end up as zombies (still around, not widely adopted or available). It looks to me that 6.5 Creedmore, for example, is popular enough that it has made it and will continue to be available for the forseeable. I hear enough mention of it and enough manufacturers have come up with rifles, ammo, components, dies, etc. Other than really, really clear examples like this, how do we know a cartridge has made it?

The genesis of my question is that I like the idea to 350 legend, but I am not eager to join the parade until I know this will not end up being an orphan.

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6.5 CM made it a while ago. Once SOCOM made it their Sniper Rifle Caliber of choice any chance of it being a short term fad was over. I would be more worried about .260 Remington eventually going the way of 6mm Rem.

.300 Blk and .224 Valkyrie are available in quantity at Academy. While they may fade it's not like shopping for .300 Savage or even .220 Swift at this time. 20 years from now may be a different story. I remember .38 Super being on it's last legs and now it's had a renaissance.

LiveLife said:

I guess 9mm Major "made it" because I am finding increasing number of overly expanded 9mm brass

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Nahhh... That is called a Glock Smiley!

Yeah that's a tough one, unless you reload having a gun chambered In a cartrige that has been orphaned by the community and therefore the industry makes ammo expensive, hard to find and kills the guns resale value. The economy of scale is real and it pays to go with the herd in cartrige selection.

The newest chamber I have bought is 5.56, dates to the late 50's and obviously had military adoption and was a safe bet by the 90's when I bought my first one. The major 50 to 100 year old cartridges have just about every base covered, most new cartridges are minor improvements and they need to overcome the economy of scale the incumbents hold to be a sucess. Not an easy task.

6.5CM looks like a winner right now, although no one feature of 6.5CM is revolutionary and cannot be done with different cartridges it does check a lot of boxes making it desirable for multiple uses, Just as an example not even including performance simple things like fitting heavy for caliber bullet in a standard box magazine, sounds minor but things like this have kept Wildcats and niche calibers from wide adoption even if they outperform existing calibers. Just a few minor downsides will keep people from leaving the incumbents,

.350 legend is a regional cartrige that came from regulation, If I lived there I might be interested, but I don't, if I wanted a straight walled hunting carbine I would buy a 1892 in .357 for a compact light rifle. Synergies with my existing revolver etc. Carried a lot shot little it would be perfect, but for serious outing I would bring a bottleneck cartrige because I can. 350 legend just does not fit here.

Can Ohio hunters alone make a cartrige a sucess?

I'ts not just Ohio but several Midwest states (Indian, Iowa, Michigan and maybe others?) that have similar straight wall rifle cartridge requirements. Also its not just this straight wall requirement that is driving 450 BM and 350 Legend it is also the fact that they are designed specifically for AR platforms (hence the relatively low pressure limit on 450 BM).

That said I believe 450 BM has made it. There are several companies making ARs in the cartridges and several other companies also making non-AR firearms in the cartridge. All three of the major manufactures (Rem, Fed, Win, along with Hornady) are loading commercial ammo along with at least four different boutique loaders.

As for 6.5 CM love it or hate it the cartridge is here to stay. If you think otherwise you have not been paying attention for the past 12+ years as the cartridge has made its initially slow but now accelerating climb to the popularity it currently has. I am so confident it has made it I bought a rifle in a cartridge derived from it, 6mm Creedmore. 6.5 Creedmore is my backup source for brass for my new rifle. Though I do have about four hundred pieces of 6mm to start with so I will be good for a few years...