I’m honestly surprised we made it this far. But I realized I hadn’t shared my own perspective.
The question, naturally, is really a poll about the perception of quality first, and then a study of the problem-management style, with a pinch of spice for risk management and response planning logic, aka, is it really possible to access your spare within the context of the failure mode?
As I mentioned earlier, I REALLY didn’t expect the logical bias (loophole, really) of favoring two weapons with the opportunity for multiple, proximal stashes. That does tip the odds.
I haven’t tallied the responses, maybe I should do so, but I’m surprised at how this is going. I certainly wouldn’t have thought the perception would support a $350 AR to be the reliability equivalent of a $700 AR. Picking those price points forced certain concessions in the parts selections and eliminated a comparison of a $600 S&W or Ruger against a $900 Colt - a far less interesting consideration. Really forcing what I believe to be a true quality difference - not many of the major AR components are < $50, and it doesn’t take many $50 price tags to push a build over $350. A $350 AR could have been built in around 2/3 of the years of the last 20yrs, with the current market as an example of the exceptions - but it has NEVER been easy to do so without conceding on brand reputation and perceived quality. Almost always possible, but never easy.
I posted this question, at least in part, because I’m not quite sure how I would answer it myself. In the meeting which spurred the thought experiment, and those like it, I have an obligation to business risk, so spare parts are financially justified quite easily. A balancing act of inventory costs versus delivery times and perceived failure rates - with real world, operational data in hand to demonstrate ACTUAL reliability standards for various equipment and components (a stark differentiation from this particular discussion). The consequence of an AR going down in a “fight for my life” is pretty bleak, but so is the prospect/burden of seeking a replacement during the event.
Equally, as I have often said here and elsewhere, I really don’t have interest in the conventional AR-15, Mil-spec-ish 16” Carbine. There are enough low cost barrels in different configurations these days that maybe a $350 AR isn’t so strongly painted into that 16” corner, but that’s largely what I have pictured in my mind throughout this experiment.
I struggle to commit to either side, but wearing my emergency response planning hat, I would tend towards only one $700 AR. Not necessarily for any feature, quality, or reliability advantage, but largely because my perception is that only ONE rifle will be of use during the event.
Or I suppose I could cheat my own Kobiashi Maru, taking a financial perspective and using the same logic: I’d build two at $350, and sell one (or simply only buy ONE). I’d have the ONE rifle of which I could make use, and then be money ahead of the alternative scenario.