Reloading supplies are out as well as ammo

Unfortunately this is a poor time to be looking for ammo or reloading supplies. Having been through this several times before I slowly stocked up and can suffer through this mess. The message to the noobs is remember this and act when stocks return. It will happen again for some reason or other.

Picked up the last box of small pistol primers my local supplier had in stock a couple months back. I had called the night before and asked them to put them on hold for me. When I went in to retrieve them the next day, the lobby was filled with people who's facial expressions reflected the lack of stock. I felt like royalty when the clerk went into the back and retrieved a box with my name on a post-it note. I also felt eyes burning into the back of my head. I got out of there as quick as I could.

Maybe there is a shortage because people are buying everything left on the shelf, when they are already "well off".

DukeConnor said:

Maybe there is a shortage because people are buying everything left on the shelf, when they are already "well off".

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Not sure if that was directed towards me, but if it was, the last one on the shelf was the only one I bought. So I wouldn't consider that 'well-off'.

Regardless, I personally don't fault other people for buying what's available. If the seller wants to put a limit on something that's their choice, but I'm not going to start telling people they should only buy x amount because I didn't prepare ahead of time. I'm curious what your definition of 'well-off' is. Exactly at what number of a given component should a person stop buying?

So yet again another thread with responses like well, should have learned, my supply is awesome. Ok. Very helpful.

More new firearm purchases than ever. I've said this before on a different rehashed thread but a lot of new gun owners are wondering why ammo is scarce.

Pandemic and the virus plus the horrible idea that Biden may steal the election has people worried. Makes for panick buying. Reloading components included.

Just out of curiosity. And I'm in by no means calling anyone old. But could some of you more seasoned guys chime in and tell us younger guys what the most comparable situation like we are in now was? As far as ammo and reloading components go. And how long did it take for the products we want to bounce back?

azrocks said:

Not sure if that was directed towards me, but if it was, the last one on the shelf was the only one I bought. So I wouldn't consider that 'well-off'.

Regardless, I personally don't fault other people for buying what's available. If the seller wants to put a limit on something that's their choice, but I'm not going to start telling people they should only buy x amount because I didn't prepare ahead of time. I'm curious what your definition of 'well-off' is. Exactly at what number of a given component should a person stop buying?

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Not directed towards you. It was directed at anyone that has a ton of supplies but will clean out everything left on the shelf.

We do this to ourselves.

There was a guy at a shop near that wanted to take the last 5k SPP off the shelf because he doesn't like to get below 60K.

We are our own worst enemy.

Hrbie22 said:

Just out of curiosity. And I'm in by no means calling anyone old. But could some of you more seasoned guys chime in and tell us younger guys what the most comparable situation like we are in now was? As far as ammo and reloading components go. And how long did it take for the products we want to bounce back?

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There is no comparable situation. Between the pandemic, civil uprest, and the upcoming election, we're kind of in uncharted territory here.

Just the election alone is usually enough to do it for a while. Happened in 2008, & again in 2016.

@Hrbie22, unless this is the end times (said in jest), eventually prices will go down & supply will go up. But most people are only thinking about stocking up when shortages focus their attention. Gotta remind yourself when the good times come that it's time to stock up.

DukeConnor said:

Not directed towards you. It was directed at anyone that has a ton of supplies but will clean out everything left on the shelf.

We do this to ourselves.

There was a guy at a shop near that wanted to take the last 5k SPP off the shelf because he doesn't like to get below 60K.

We are our own worst enemy.

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Yeah, I get the frustration. I'd probably be pretty hot too if I was standing in line behind that guy waiting to get a box.
End of the day though, we can't control what other people do. If we end up short, it's on us.
I got caught out big-time in 2008. It was a learning experience. Even now I didn't prepare the way I should, but that's because I prioritized food & TP over ammo (joking about TP. Not joking about food) . Only so much $ to go around.

Hrbie22 said:

Just out of curiosity. And I'm in by no means calling anyone old. But could some of you more seasoned guys chime in and tell us younger guys what the most comparable situation like we are in now was? As far as ammo and reloading components go. And how long did it take for the products we want to bounce back?

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I am not what I would call real old but I have been around for a while. First shortage's I can recall came in the Clinton years. He EOed Chines ammo and guns. Real fast 7.62x39 market dried up. The Russians stepped up after a couple of years and then the prices went way down. There was also the Clinton primer scare. It went something like they were going to mandate that primers expire after a certain amount of time and would be no good. So all the primers that were available got gobbled up. I don't think powder and bullets got hit as hard. I don't recall how long that went on. Next one that I can recall was when Obama got elected, but I was out of the country so I can't say what the ammo supply was like. I was able to order on line and have it sent to the house for part of that time. But when I came home on leave there were very few guns to be had. Then he got reelected and we had Sandy Hook. I would say that was the worst and I would say it lasted (to some extent) till Trump got elected. Then the Pandemic kicked off and were headed into the next election cycle. Hard to make a good guess at how long this one will last.

WB

I have always bought an extra box or two at every opportunity...gun shops, Wally world, gun shows, etc.
My reloading components are in decent shape.... I do/did the same as with manufactured ammo.
Maybe under these circumstances it would be a good idea to buy a mold and learn to cast your own bullets.....

i,m a little low on large pistol primers, due to giving friends a box here and a box there. other than them, i,m well stocked with thousands of L-S rifle primers and S pistol and 209 shotgun primers. plus a large stash of powder- cases and factory loaded ammo.

castile said:

I have not been watching real close the sales of gun items. But I noticed no one has 223 priced well. No one has powder or primers. I ran across one can of BLC2 at Cabala's yesterday and picked it up. I was checking for Varget and the salesman said they were out of powder for a month and got a small amount yesterday and that was all he had. The other five cans were for shot gun. I grabbed it. I reload for the range and keep my factory for SHTF. So I am well off. I am still using some very old 1960s Bullseye I picked up from an old timer who sold me his reloading supplies. It works just fine. I put back about 20 pounds of powder over the years. Same with primers but I try to rotate my stock as I use up some. Are you guys finding reading supplies dried up in your area?

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I have been ready for these times for a very long time. I am stocked on guns, ammo and reloading supplies. There is nothing around Libby MT to find. You go to Missoula, Kalispell and its all gone. Go into Idaho and Coeur d'Alene has nothing as well. My brother lives in Oklahoma City and he says its all gone as well. I wish all well and hope they find the items they need. Bad times are afoot for America. That's why I live where I do. 43 wooded acres, 1600 sqft cabin, wife and a dog.

Checked my LGS yesterday. They have a fair selection of powder, common brass and bullets. Not a primer in the place. So glad I stocked up before the last election. Took inventory when I got home and even had a 1000 SR primers for my 223.

On another note, I did find some 9mm and got a buddy 2 cases for his store. It wasn't cheap, but he was tickled pink. He sold most of it in 2 days.

The shot gun reload web sites are well stocked.
Plenty of buck shot, T and BB (lead) as of a week or 2 ago.
Lead BBs mow down coyotes very effectively, I wouldn't want to be in their way.
T shot is pretty brutal too, slightly smaller than #4 buck.

I live in NE Kansas and currently avoiding Kansas heat by staying in Montana for a month. In both states and some states in between I found shortages of powder aand primers. I sold some of my stuff to friends during the last run on components, but have enough for awhile. But, honestly it's ugly out there. I found some good deals in Livingston Montana last week so picked powder, but still no primers anywhere.

I was on a Facebook reloading page last weekend, I think it was. Another member mentioned midway had cci small pistol primers. I checked and they did, put a couple in the cart and checked the hazmat cost, very reasonable, and then said the heck with it. I got a good supply, maybe next year I'll be kicking myself for not grabbing them but I'm a optimistic person, this is America, we'll get through this.

DukeConnor said:

Not directed towards you. It was directed at anyone that has a ton of supplies but will clean out everything left on the shelf.

We do this to ourselves.

There was a guy at a shop near that wanted to take the last 5k SPP off the shelf because he doesn't like to get below 60K.

We are our own worst enemy.

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I'll play devils advocate here. Depending on the quantity that someone shoots, 60K might be less than a years supply and keeping themselves at 60K is just status quo for them and if they run too low it can disrupt their training or ability to compete.

I'll further argue that production capacity shouldn't be that low right now. While it's harder to get primers, they do come in to stock so one would have to assume winchester, Speer, Fiocchi, Federal, etc have enough primers to produce their own ammo, so why haven't they increased production to try to catch up with demand? If we are truly talking about Tulip market bubble, then eventually they should be able to catch up and then they just ramp down production. If demand has increased indefinitely then if they want to increase profits they need to permanently expand production. It seems that the manufacturers haven't learned from the previous cycles and figured out a cost effective way to be able to match production with demand. Most industries are able to do this, like for example the semi-conductors.

Sniper66 said:

I live in NE Kansas and currently avoiding Kansas heat by staying in Montana for a month. In both states and some states in between I found shortages of powder aand primers. I sold some of my stuff to friends during the last run on components, but have enough for awhile. But, honestly it's ugly out there. I found some good deals in Livingston Montana last week so picked powder, but still no primers anywhere.

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When you get back to KS, drop me a PM. I know a guy, that know's another guy that has a cousin.....

No seriously I'll put you in touch with my normal supplier who has pretty good stockage still. Monday I'm picking up 5K is WSPs, 3K in WSRs, 8lbs HP38 and 3lbs of H4350, which pretty much rounds out what I was running low on.

packetloss said:

I'll play devils advocate here. Depending on the quantity that someone shoots, 60K might be less than a years supply and keeping themselves at 60K is just status quo for them and if they run too low it can disrupt their training or ability to compete.

I'll further argue that production capacity shouldn't be that low right now. While it's harder to get primers, they do come in to stock so one would have to assume winchester, Speer, Fiocchi, Federal, etc have enough primers to produce their own ammo, so why haven't they increased production to try to catch up with demand? If we are truly talking about Tulip market bubble, then eventually they should be able to catch up and then they just ramp down production. If demand has increased indefinitely then if they want to increase profits they need to permanently expand production. It seems that the manufacturers haven't learned from the previous cycles and figured out a cost effective way to be able to match production with demand. Most industries are able to do this, like for example the semi-conductors.

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I agree with the bold section completely. I won't judge the guy in the store saying he maintains 60k. It's my job to get there before him if I want my share.

These types of threads reek of the nature and motivation of your fellow shooter (in turn, your fellow man). I am always amazed by people’s surprise at the behavior of other people - the basic and predictable behavior is ever present yet we are somehow caught off guard every time. People are lemmings; it is simple stuff - buy when everyone is selling, sell when everyone is buying - always oppose the herd behavior and you will be just fine.

packetloss said:

I'll play devils advocate here. Depending on the quantity that someone shoots, 60K might be less than a years supply and keeping themselves at 60K is just status quo for them and if they run too low it can disrupt their training or ability to compete.

I'll further argue that production capacity shouldn't be that low right now. While it's harder to get primers, they do come in to stock so one would have to assume winchester, Speer, Fiocchi, Federal, etc have enough primers to produce their own ammo, so why haven't they increased production to try to catch up with demand? If we are truly talking about Tulip market bubble, then eventually they should be able to catch up and then they just ramp down production. If demand has increased indefinitely then if they want to increase profits they need to permanently expand production. It seems that the manufacturers haven't learned from the previous cycles and figured out a cost effective way to be able to match production with demand. Most industries are able to do this, like for example the semi-conductors.

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They can't just turn a dial and increase production speed. Primers aren't something made by machines. There's a lot of hand work involved and it's a pretty dangerous process. You can't hire someone this week and have them making primers next week.

Pretty much the same thing with rimfire ammo. The return on investment on a new rimfire production line is 8-10 years. It takes 2-3 years just to get one functioning.

Also no company wants a lot of inventory sitting in the warehouse. It's taxed. The whole system is set up for a gradual increase in sales over time. Not a panic buying situation. Normally something like rimfire ammo has about a 30-45 day supply in the pipeline at a time. People get stupid, then people panic and it takes over two years for things to return to normal, and that's with the production lines running pretty much 24/7.

Both primers and rimfire ammo are very low profit items for companies. Tenths of a cent make a big difference here. If a company is going to spend the capitol to invest in new production they HAVE to know that this money is going to pay off sometime in the future.

Texas10mm said:

Both primers and rimfire ammo are very low profit items for companies. Tenths of a cent make a big difference here.

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It's amazing to me they can make money at all. Take primers, for instance;

These things are produced, and then shipped literally from the other side of the globe, taking S&B as an example.

They sell for roughly 4¢ each, after having been manufactured, packaged, freighted to a port, loaded on a ship, transported across the ocean, unshipped, freighted across the country to various places, and stocked on shelves.

And everybody along the line is making money.

Astonishing.

The margins per piece are vanishingly small.

Texas10mm said:

They can't just turn a dial and increase production speed. Primers aren't something made by machines. There's a lot of hand work involved and it's a pretty dangerous process. You can't hire someone this week and have them making primers next week.

Pretty much the same thing with rimfire ammo. The return on investment on a new rimfire production line is 8-10 years. It takes 2-3 years just to get one functioning.

Also no company wants a lot of inventory sitting in the warehouse. It's taxed. The whole system is set up for a gradual increase in sales over time. Not a panic buying situation. Normally something like rimfire ammo has about a 30-45 day supply in the pipeline at a time. People get stupid, then people panic and it takes over two years for things to return to normal, and that's with the production lines running pretty much 24/7.

Both primers and rimfire ammo are very low profit items for companies. Tenths of a cent make a big difference here. If a company is going to spend the capitol to invest in new production they HAVE to know that this money is going to pay off sometime in the future.

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I don't disagree with what you are pointing out, however, these shortages seem to be popping up every couple of years. What they need to do is figure out a way to set up their facilities so that they can increase capacity when needed and be able to drop production down if inventories start to build. I'm not an industrial automation expert and I get that there is manual work involved in producing primers, so I don't have the answers, but it's standard operating procedure for the semi-conductor industry.

With the various shortages over the last 10 years, this is a LOT of money left on the table. Not just from primer sales, but from ammo sales, gun sales, etc. If most ammo is sold out now even at prices double what they used to be, just think about how much more volume a manufacturer could be selling if they could. It might even be enough to get that 8-10 year return in just 1 year. For all we know, this shortage can go on for quite some time. I know the gun shop's near me still have lines around the block. Ton's of money left on the table.

You can't get that 8-10 year ROI down to a year.

It takes 2-3 years to construct the line. It takes 1-2 years to teach the workers. Then you need to start making rimfire ammo. You're tying up a BUNCH of money, think in the 9 figures, to make a product that you make tenths of a cent on.

For both primers and rimfire it takes time to train people. Then you need to be able to keep them working. If you lay them off they're gone. Again, for tenths of cent per item.