Reloading supplies are out as well as ammo

packetloss said:

it's standard operating procedure for the semi-conductor industry.

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Texas10mm said:

Then you need to be able to keep them working. If you lay them off they're gone.

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Hiring people and laying them off is also "standard operating procedure" for the semi-conductor industry. It doesn't work when you have to invest in training those people before they become productive, and it doesn't work in places where people have other options for employment. And I won't even get into the overall morale of the people working in some of the various semi-conductor industries.
Now don't get me wrong - I fully understand the semi-conductor market is extremely volatile. I just don't believe comparing the primer industry, the rimfire ammo industry, nor the ammunition industry in general to the semi-conductor industry is a valid comparison.

Well, the current state of affairs with these constant shortages every other year isn't working. What do you suggest? Having consumers stock up with a 2-3 year supply isn't a solution either.

packetloss said:

Well, the current state of affairs with these constant shortages every other year isn't working. What do you suggest? Having consumers stock up with a 2-3 year supply isn't a solution either.

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Buying all along, even when you think youre stocked is what you should be doing. Especially when the prices are down and things are plentiful.

Doesnt take long to be in a good position doing that either.

The shortages are due to those who seem to be incapable of following the "7 P's".

Yet somehow, its those of us that do who are off our heads.

When you’re slightly embarrassed how big your stockpile is, your getting close.

I personally have a good supply. Enough to last me 2-3 years, however, if I pick up something new that requires components I don't currently have or a new powder then I go to the end of the line. What about new folks just now buying a gun? There is a first time for everyone and they wouldn't know about past shortages or shortages to come. You can't expect them to have stocked up last year. Likewise, depending on someones financial situation, they might not have the funds to stock 2-3 years worth of components and ammo, or a safe place to store it.

Simply put, there shouldn't be these ongoing ammo shortages. It's not rocket science. People don't buy cars at the same rate all the time yet we don't have rolling car shortages. Ditto for most consumer items. If it was a one time thing, due to covid, that would be understandable, but it seems every couple of years this keeps happening and those who have experienced it are not surprised and expect it. Since that is the case, surely there must be some better planning that is possible on the production side.

There is no good response to the "shortage" thread, be it for guns, ammo, reloading, rimfire, primers, TP, etc.

It's either whining and complaining about how there's no ____. Or, it's that you're Scrooge McDuck, swimming in your pool filled with primers every night just because - haha.

These sort of shortages are cyclical in nature and coincide with uncertainty. The election year was going to be bad enough, but add virus uncertainty and civil unrest, and you get a circumstance where people are fearful for their safety. There are people who are legitimately concerned that law enforcement may not respond (or respond soon enough) in their time of need. People are fearful of the possibility of Uncle Joe, Beto, and possibility of a blue congress and how it affects the 2nd amendment. These circumstances cause people to purchase firearms and related things.

We will regain more certainty with an election, no matter who is elected. However, we will regain incredible gun related certainty if enough choose the red pill.

We will regain an amount of certainty with the election on the civil unrest front, as it is in part a ploy to energize their base, make people unhappy, and whet an appetite for change. Some want nothing more than to record heavy handed, out of context responses to "peaceful protesters."

We will regain an amount of certainty with the production of a vaccine.

However, until some of these are known and some certainty regained, well meaning people are going to attempt to create "localized certainty" with their wallets.

This is ok, but not ideal. People hoard all kinds of things. Some probably have a mountain of TP and canned goods. Some bought a lot of gun related things in the 2016-2019 era of the cheapest prices in recent history and really don't need to buy much. Some just purchased their first firearm and have no way to get ammo for it. Some are purchasing an entry level AR for $900 that was $500 or less in 2017. People need things when they need them and the economics aren't that good right now when it comes to gun related products.

Just don't believe that "it will never come back down." It's not true in the stock market and it's not true with consumer goods.

Otherwise, you'll be the guy who can't sell his $11,000 rimfire stash bought at panic prices when things become more certain.

cougar1717 said:

People hoard all kinds of things. Some probably have a mountain of TP

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V-8 juice from Costco for me. That's because I've had a sausage biscuit and half of a 12oz can of V-8 juice for breakfast every morning for years now. And I know from experience that Costco occasionally drops items (for no apparent reason) from their stock for a while, then brings them back.

cougar1717 said:

Otherwise, you'll be the guy who can't sell his $11,000 rimfire stash bought at panic prices when things become more certain.

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I resemble that remark - sort of. I don't have anything against ARs, but I don't want one either. Nevertheless, I bought one just before the last presidential election thinking I'd sell it later (after you know who won) for a profit. You can probably guess how that worked out.
I took a beating because the media lied about who was going to win the election, and I believed them. Never again!

They’re still lying. I’m still not believing!

If the other thread was right, about gun sales being up 95% and ammo 139%, It's probably likely more people are taking up loading their own ammo.

Some of you that have been around THR for years, ever seen so many posts in the reloading section of people that are just getting started and seeking advice? Look on eBay and see what people are bidding for used dies in popular calibers. All the "hoarders" trying to corner the market on equipment too?

It really seems like everything related to shooting, especially in popular handgun and defense platforms is getting snatched up. It's not one thing, it's a snowball.

Howland937 said:

It really seems like everything related to shooting, especially in popular handgun and defense platforms is getting snatched up. It's not one thing, it's a snowball.

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I hope so, I really do. And I hope I have enough ammo and components to hold out until this thing ends, or at least slows down. Then again, I'm pretty old and have a few underlying health problems, so I just might have enough ammo and components to see me through even if I don't see the end of the current shortage.

Once upon a time there was hope that a new .22RF plant would be online in 2020. Choctaw Defense in
OK. I can find an EPA permit application, but their website and FB page are 2 years old.

There are those who have not learned from the past shortages and still will not start building a stockpile when things get better. I have always bought as much as my hazmat would cover. I have not been affected buy shortages for over 50 years. It is a good feeling Don't care if some think I am a little off spending my money on such things. Then there are those who just don't learn that hitting your thumb with a hammer HURTS.

One of my local shops seems to be able to keep reloading stuff in stock. Walked in and they had plenty of SPP and powder of all kinds. I just picked up one brick of SPP and another pound of some powder I was wanting. I have everything I NEED! I left plenty for others. I paid $5 more for that brick of SPP than normal. But, it was the only place I could find them.

packetloss said:

Well, the current state of affairs with these constant shortages every other year isn't working. What do you suggest? Having consumers stock up with a 2-3 year supply isn't a solution either.

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I don't like it either but for the last 10 years or so shortages have become the norm. The conditions that cause these shortages are not predictable or controllable, so to stock up with enough supply to satisfy one's shooting needs through the next inevitable shortage is in fact a reasonable solution. May not be a solution that works for everyone, but it does for many of us.

packetloss said:

Well, the current state of affairs with these constant shortages every other year isn't working. What do you suggest? Having consumers stock up with a 2-3 year supply isn't a solution either.

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I would suggest changing the tax structure so that inventory isn't taxed until it's sold. The our way tax laws are structured, it only makes sense to have "just-in-time" inventory. Therefore no packed warehouses and no reserve for panic buying conditions.

BTW, one of the major hurdle in the production process is the place and capital required for the stockpiling of raw materials. Not to mention that a large percentage of our gunpowder comes from overseas.

I know my inventory will in all probability get me through this panic. After downsizing last year, I found myself short on powder and primers so I bought 3 8# jugs of my most used powders, 5k LR primers, 5k SR primers and 2k SP primers, not to mention 2 cases of 22lr because I was down to my last 2 bricks of favorite flavors of 22 lr. After buying all that stuff, I found my 8# jugs of powder and the 7k primers I thought I already had. And the other 1-1/2 cases of .22 lr. All is well, however, my son says he'll help me shoot it.... Not load it, just shoot it.
Maybe I'll trade him off after hunting season.....

The shortage is a self fulfilling prophecy. Stop buying for a month or two and the supplies will return.

packetloss said:

I'll play devils advocate here. Depending on the quantity that someone shoots, 60K might be less than a years supply and keeping themselves at 60K is just status quo for them and if they run too low it can disrupt their training or ability to compete.

I'll further argue that production capacity shouldn't be that low right now. While it's harder to get primers, they do come in to stock so one would have to assume winchester, Speer, Fiocchi, Federal, etc have enough primers to produce their own ammo, so why haven't they increased production to try to catch up with demand? If we are truly talking about Tulip market bubble, then eventually they should be able to catch up and then they just ramp down production. If demand has increased indefinitely then if they want to increase profits they need to permanently expand production. It seems that the manufacturers haven't learned from the previous cycles and figured out a cost effective way to be able to match production with demand. Most industries are able to do this, like for example the semi-conductors.

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If you met the guy I referenced you would have agreed with me.

I'm sure there are people who consistantly shoot 60k per year but this guy wasn't one of them.

He was a horder that liked bragging.

The shop owner was limiting people to 1,000 primers anyway.

I stopped in to pick up a thousand SPP to replace what we shot the day.

JUST IN TIME mentality most manufacturing corporation follow is the cause of them not being capable of responding to fluctuations in buying habits.
While JIT makes sense when the supply and demand are steady watch out when the supply (brass, cooper, lead) run low or when the demand jumps (folks buying extra). It is not economical to have a warehouse stuffed to the rafters with coils of brass and cooper and lead. Nor does it help the bottom line to have the warehouse full of unsold product.

Hrbie22 said:

Just out of curiosity. And I'm in by no means calling anyone old. But could some of you more seasoned guys chime in and tell us younger guys what the most comparable situation like we are in now was? As far as ammo and reloading components go. And how long did it take for the products we want to bounce back?

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I only load for a couple of calibers and I don't have an opportunity to shoot as much as I would like to, so my needs aren't very big. That being said, about 3 years ago, I acquired a rifle to go with my revolver in .357 Magnum. It took over 18 months until I could get enough supplies to even start reloading. The biggest snafu was the .357 brass (still is !), followed by the mandated primers, then powder. Bullets weren't a big problem. Over the last 18 months, I made two trips to a small shop in St. Charles, MO, that were the only ones that had any stock. Neither Academy, Gander Mountain (before they closed), 3 LGSs, nor Bass Pro in St. Charles or Cabela's in St. Louis county near St. Charles had ANY supplies.
If it weren't for a minor rotator cuff injury and a lack of .357 brass (again!!), I'd be banging out rounds now. I have enough of everything except brass to load at least 400 rounds. Such is life.

To expand on my previous post some. Those of us that have seen this before are more inclined to buy now as a hedge against inevitable price increases and supply interuptions. It is considered good form to slowly amass at least enough to tide you through one political cycle at minimum. Buying in times of plenty and when on sale maximizes your savings. Just make sure you do not short yourself on the housing and food fronts, that comes first. I have been reduced to Ramin and Macaroni & cheese for a bit when a good sale is in progress however.

i still have large pistol primers from the "Clinton will outlaw re-loading panic".

packetloss said:

Simply put, there shouldn't be these ongoing ammo shortages. It's not rocket science. People don't buy cars at the same rate all the time yet we don't have rolling car shortages. Ditto for most consumer items. If it was a one time thing, due to covid, that would be understandable, but it seems every couple of years this keeps happening and those who have experienced it are not surprised and expect it. Since that is the case, surely there must be some better planning that is possible on the production side.

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That’s just not how it works in the real world. If a manufacturer sells one million primers per month, every month, for 5 years it makes no sense to have capacity to manufacture three million primers per month. The manufacturer would go bankrupt due to the excess overhead. And once the pandemic hit you think they’d be hiring and training so they could triple their staff? All while knowing that those staff will be laid off in 6 to 12 months?

Anyone is free to start an ammo and reloading component wholesale/retail business. If these events were so predictable and so much money was being left on the table it should be easy to get funding.