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Trunk Monkey
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Wouldn't the FBI be his source? (Even if he incorrectly references them?
According To The FBI...
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Wouldn't the FBI be his source? (Even if he incorrectly references them?
old lady new shooter
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I don't know about "hypocritical" but it's definitely not wise.
Jim Watson
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Averages are slippery things.
Is a case where an assailant surrenders or flees without shots being fired count as a "gunfight" of zero?
Is a case where an assailant surrenders or flees without shots being fired count as a "gunfight" of zero?
I cannot see why anyone would want to seek or cite a few actual average numbers of shots fired in handgun combat.
There are so many variables in handgun wounding effectiveness that are not captured in reports that a few shots-per-incident data points just don't mean anything to us. We can learn just as much, if not more, in the way of meaningful information from watching a dozen dash-cam or body-cam videos as by looking for compiled data.
In Lessons from the Street, Tom Givens presents a few round count data.
They are the real thing, but the data set is miniscule, and they would not influence me in any carry decisions.
It would be possible to take some medical judgments on what wounds are likely to stop an attacker and which are not, some 3D geometric models of a few persons, and a very sophisticated 3D laser shooting facility, run some simulations, and see how many rounds might indicate a stop in some scenarios.
I don't think it would be worth doing--too much uncertainty, too many variables, and too much data scatter.
A person would be just as well served, or more, to watch a few real videos, see how many shots were fired in each, and decide what to carry on that basis.
There are so many variables in handgun wounding effectiveness that are not captured in reports that a few shots-per-incident data points just don't mean anything to us. We can learn just as much, if not more, in the way of meaningful information from watching a dozen dash-cam or body-cam videos as by looking for compiled data.
In Lessons from the Street, Tom Givens presents a few round count data.
They are the real thing, but the data set is miniscule, and they would not influence me in any carry decisions.
It would be possible to take some medical judgments on what wounds are likely to stop an attacker and which are not, some 3D geometric models of a few persons, and a very sophisticated 3D laser shooting facility, run some simulations, and see how many rounds might indicate a stop in some scenarios.
I don't think it would be worth doing--too much uncertainty, too many variables, and too much data scatter.
A person would be just as well served, or more, to watch a few real videos, see how many shots were fired in each, and decide what to carry on that basis.
Double Naught Spy
Sus Venator
That was the Peach House RV Park, outside of Early, Texas, nowhere near Houston. The cop had an AR15, but the perp was behind a tree from the cop and the cop's shots were not hitting the perp. Vic Stacy could see the perp. Stacy had stupidly/unwisely/shortsightedly (pick your own term for the bad choice) brought his .357 Colt Python and not his own AR15 that was sitting next to the door, loaded with 30 rounds that he passed on the way out. So Stacy had the advantage of trying to shoot at the exposed perp who was fighting with the cop. Instead of an easy COM shot with the AR15, the first shot hit the perp in the leg which dropped the guy, who then turned his efforts on Stacy. Stacy received cuts from a near miss that kicked up rocks into his leg. Stacy's fired 4 more times as the deputy was also shooting at the perp and after those shots, the perp was dead.
The distance was about 56 yards, taped, much less than the original 165 yards that Stacy reported in an interview to the police after the event.
Stacy thinks he hit with 3 of 4 shots, but never got close to the body and had not seen the coroner's report. He thinks the cop his the perp twice with his rifle.
https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/one-year-later-vic-stacy-and-the-peach-house-shootout/
Stacy stating the shot was 165 yards, originally, which is funny because the RV park isn't even that large where the trailers park...
See 1:16...
In the range of civilian gun fights as to what would or would not be typical, Stacy's would be at the way far tail end of the bell curve of gun fights, one in the which the distances were long and where he joined the fight to aid a cop, bringing a pistol to a rifle battle.
Don't get me wrong, things turned out well for Stacy, but he also got lucky. He got to take his first shot of the fight against a perp who was otherwise engaged and didn't even know Stacy was present. Stacy essentially got to snipe the guy with his pistol, from concealment, but that was not a fight ender with his first shot.
First off, the idea that there is an "average" gunfight or defensive gun use is simply insane. If we take the average of defensive gun uses we would surely say that they end with no rounds fired if you believe Kleck's stats. In my opinion the only reasonable method to select what to carry is to first figure out what platform in any caliber .38 special or bigger that you personally shoot the best and are willing to invest the time to get really good with it. Revolver, semi auto, it doesn't matter. What matters is your personal ability to use it effectively. Using it effectively is much more then marksmanship, it's also manipulation skills and mindset. We need to get away from the idea that the only suitable defensive tools are (insert favorite handgun here). When I started in LE I was issued a Model 65 Smith and Wesson .357 Magnum and 18 rounds of duty ammunition. All of my previous experience with handguns was with semi-autos. So I learned to shoot the Model 65 as well as I shot the 1911s I learned to shoot with. I quickly learned from a couple of the very experienced revolver shooters I worked with that it was possible to be just as effective with a revolver as my beloved 1911s. At no time in the years before the department switched to autos (S&W 5906s) did I feel inadequately armed in any situation I found myself in. After we switched to autos I never felt inadequately armed with the "puny" 9mm. We were issued Winchester LE Only 115 grain +P+ . I never worried that it wouldn't do the job. Why, because I trained to do the job with the tools I was issued. Later we traded the 5906s for Glock 21s in .45. Again, I put the time in to learn to shoot what I was issued. Later I moved to a smaller dept and was able to use my own duty weapon and went back to my beloved 1911. But at no time through all of those changes did I feel I wasn't equipped well enough to do the job. A private citizen can choose any handgun he or she wants. If you are willing to put in the time to become competent with it, what it is doesn't really matter.
Now let's talk about extra ammo. When I started in LE we were issued 18 rounds of duty ammo. 6 in the cylinder and two speed loaders in a pouch on my belt. I qualified with and carried a Colt Agent (the 6 shot revolver) in an ankle holster as a bug and I carried one reload in a Bianchi Speed Strip in my uniform shirt pocket. This gave me a total of 30 rounds on my person. Now lets address the difference between a private citizen and a patrol officer. I was obligated to "look for trouble", a private citizen has no such obligation and can withdraw and hopefully will avoid placing themselves in harms way. My EDC loadout changed considerably when I retired as I no longer had a duty to act. One reload has been sufficient since my plan is to not get into a gunfight if at all possible. I will be more likely to retreat if possible then to stand and fight these days.
My point here is that it's not the tools you choose that will give you the edge in a fight. It's how well you can employ those tools. If I had to choose between a young man who just got his CCW and had little other shooting experience and no tactical training but had the latest Glock and 3 spare magazines of the latest, greatest "one shot kill guaranteed" defensive ammo and a guy who had a lot of shooting experience and a lot of good tactical training and experience and was armed with a revolver and 2 speed loaders of extra ammo to back me up going into harms way I know who I'm picking.
It's the person not the tools and that's why trying to identify the "average gunfight" and prepare for it is not a good way to prepare.
Now let's talk about extra ammo. When I started in LE we were issued 18 rounds of duty ammo. 6 in the cylinder and two speed loaders in a pouch on my belt. I qualified with and carried a Colt Agent (the 6 shot revolver) in an ankle holster as a bug and I carried one reload in a Bianchi Speed Strip in my uniform shirt pocket. This gave me a total of 30 rounds on my person. Now lets address the difference between a private citizen and a patrol officer. I was obligated to "look for trouble", a private citizen has no such obligation and can withdraw and hopefully will avoid placing themselves in harms way. My EDC loadout changed considerably when I retired as I no longer had a duty to act. One reload has been sufficient since my plan is to not get into a gunfight if at all possible. I will be more likely to retreat if possible then to stand and fight these days.
My point here is that it's not the tools you choose that will give you the edge in a fight. It's how well you can employ those tools. If I had to choose between a young man who just got his CCW and had little other shooting experience and no tactical training but had the latest Glock and 3 spare magazines of the latest, greatest "one shot kill guaranteed" defensive ammo and a guy who had a lot of shooting experience and a lot of good tactical training and experience and was armed with a revolver and 2 speed loaders of extra ammo to back me up going into harms way I know who I'm picking.
It's the person not the tools and that's why trying to identify the "average gunfight" and prepare for it is not a good way to prepare.
lemaymiami
Member
All those years ago when I hit the street as a new young officer I'd already spent nearly four years in the Army, got shot at once or twice in Vietnam - but I was just a pencil pusher and very lucky that the war was winding down... I didn't fire a single shot there that wasn't simply practice...
Within just a couple of years on the street I learned just how random and unpredictable any encounter that might lead to gunplay was. One individual is slightly wounded in a crime event and dies right there... The next victim is stabbed right through the heart at 3Am while laying in bed at home - then jumps up and chases the offender on foot for a block or two before finally bleeding out... Street guys shooting at each other at close range, both sides armed, and no one is even scratched... A young officer I knew left our hundred man department for the Miami PD, looking for excitement and very quickly becomes a training officer (back then city of Miami had chased off an entire generation of really experienced officers - just before the Mariel boatlift and the cocaine cowboys that followed it... wild times doesn't describe that era...). At any rate with a police academy recruit aboard they pulled over a big SUV with tinted windows - for a traffic violation. Trainer and un-armed trainee aboard... when the rear window of the SUV exploded as a shooter fired an AR through it and right into the windshield of the marked unit - at almost pointblank range.... Neither the officer or the trainee were hurt (except that the officer did lose a piece of an ear to the storm of rounds that entered their vehicle..). The bad guys fled the scene and our young officer never fired a shot...A month later our young officer had found himself a desk job off the street and the trainee was no longer with city of Miami from what I heard...
At any rate while most concentrate on their sidearms I learned to rely on a shotgun in my hand whenever there was even a possibility of weapons on a hot call.... Yes, there is some value in using stats to study what's occurred in the past in an effort to better forecast what young officers (and by extension an armed citizen... ) might face - but only in a classroom situation. In real life nothing is ever clear cut in a confrontation - particularly when anyone is armed. That was my take on it early on - and everything I was ever involved in only confirmed that opinion - but it's still just my opinion. Y'all will have to make up your own minds about what significance, if any, that stats bring to the table... +
Within just a couple of years on the street I learned just how random and unpredictable any encounter that might lead to gunplay was. One individual is slightly wounded in a crime event and dies right there... The next victim is stabbed right through the heart at 3Am while laying in bed at home - then jumps up and chases the offender on foot for a block or two before finally bleeding out... Street guys shooting at each other at close range, both sides armed, and no one is even scratched... A young officer I knew left our hundred man department for the Miami PD, looking for excitement and very quickly becomes a training officer (back then city of Miami had chased off an entire generation of really experienced officers - just before the Mariel boatlift and the cocaine cowboys that followed it... wild times doesn't describe that era...). At any rate with a police academy recruit aboard they pulled over a big SUV with tinted windows - for a traffic violation. Trainer and un-armed trainee aboard... when the rear window of the SUV exploded as a shooter fired an AR through it and right into the windshield of the marked unit - at almost pointblank range.... Neither the officer or the trainee were hurt (except that the officer did lose a piece of an ear to the storm of rounds that entered their vehicle..). The bad guys fled the scene and our young officer never fired a shot...A month later our young officer had found himself a desk job off the street and the trainee was no longer with city of Miami from what I heard...
At any rate while most concentrate on their sidearms I learned to rely on a shotgun in my hand whenever there was even a possibility of weapons on a hot call.... Yes, there is some value in using stats to study what's occurred in the past in an effort to better forecast what young officers (and by extension an armed citizen... ) might face - but only in a classroom situation. In real life nothing is ever clear cut in a confrontation - particularly when anyone is armed. That was my take on it early on - and everything I was ever involved in only confirmed that opinion - but it's still just my opinion. Y'all will have to make up your own minds about what significance, if any, that stats bring to the table... +
Old Dog
Member
Personally, I think some trainer somewhere made it up because it sounds cool
I love these threads.
All I know is, I'm aware of numerous shootings/gunfights with more than three shots fired by either/both parties that have occurred regularly and/or recently in my region, so I take this stuff with the proverbial grain of salt.
Most of the firearms incidents that happen generally include factors that are never reported on, never make the news, and hence never reach the consciousness of those who would find the information interesting.
There are certain types of firearms-involved incidents that make the national news -- because they can be spun a certain way (typically, to be linked to "gun violence" which in turn is linked to the anti-gun agenda and subsequent publicity) -- and there are certain types of firearms-involved incidents that rarely, if ever, even make the local news (either because we don't want to know -- or are being protected from knowing -- what's really going on in our communities -- ooh, our city is so dangerous --, or because it simply doesn't fit the MSM's agenda, i.e., defensive uses of guns that would support the notion of RKBA).
Hangingrock
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I have two books by Tom Givens ( Fighting Smarter A Practical Guide For Surviving Violent Confrontations & Concealed Carry Class The ABCs Of Self-Defense Tools And Tactics). I also have other references such as The Modern Technique Of The Pistol By G.B. Morison (Jeff Cooper, Editorial Adviser) along with reference material from such as Askins, Jordan and Etc. Of the previously mentioned I found Givens books (The second book is a rewrite of the first in my opinion). My Marine Corps Days are long in the past and I am not law enforcement either. Thus I am a private citizen concealed weapon carrier that practices avoidance like a religion ( Stupid People - Places & Things) My EDC is a S&W Shield (9X19mm) with (8-Rd) magazine and a spare. Should I be in a shooting incident that's going to be good enough or isn't going to be good enough but that's the way its going to be. I suffer no illusions!
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Trunk Monkey
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To be clear, my intent in starting this thread WASNT to justify my choices or tell "you" what yours should be.
I just wanted to find the basis of the rumor.
I just wanted to find the basis of the rumor.
You did generate some interesting conversation even if it wasn’t your intent.
I’ve seen the “FBI study” cited numerous times over the years in articles in the firearms press and online. But I’ve never seen the study itself. I think the rumor started from a study of police shootings that was conducted in the late 70s or early 80s. Some of the other interesting conclusions was that most happened in low light (I honestly don’t remember the percentages) and that most happened at very close range. It might have been an NYPD study or it might have been some gun writers analysis of the NYPD shooting report. I do know that it’s been floating around out there for at least 30 years and maybe longer.
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Trunk Monkey
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The link that Double Naught provided was an excellent analysis
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Trunk Monkey
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I have been a witness to one shooting
And in the general area for two more.
The first one happened 40 years ago. My drunk roommate and his stupid girlfriend got into a fight and she pulled the 38th out of her purse and started shooting up our kitchen.
My other roommate actually woke up in bed and yelled at them to be quiet and then went back to sleep.
I think she fired three shots by the time I made it out the door.
The second one I honest to God do not know what happened. I was out walking my dog one night and it sounded like somebody emptied a magazine at the end of the street.
The third one I have no idea what happened again I was getting ready to go to work a guy walked past me and into an alley and about a minute later I heard one shot and then he came running back to the parking lot and never saw him again.
And I think there was one more at work one night but it was so long ago I barely remember it.
And in the general area for two more.
The first one happened 40 years ago. My drunk roommate and his stupid girlfriend got into a fight and she pulled the 38th out of her purse and started shooting up our kitchen.
My other roommate actually woke up in bed and yelled at them to be quiet and then went back to sleep.
I think she fired three shots by the time I made it out the door.
The second one I honest to God do not know what happened. I was out walking my dog one night and it sounded like somebody emptied a magazine at the end of the street.
The third one I have no idea what happened again I was getting ready to go to work a guy walked past me and into an alley and about a minute later I heard one shot and then he came running back to the parking lot and never saw him again.
And I think there was one more at work one night but it was so long ago I barely remember it.
I have concluded that all those statistics come from credible internet experts like ourselves that have never drawn a weapon in self defense but have the intellectual ability to reason it out for ourselves and preach what we come up with as gospel for civilian gun fights!
I have NEVER come across a single web article with creditable checkable sources. A whole lot of "researched thousands of actual gun fights from hundreds of jurisdictions and came up with"... blahblahblah BS. But no actual real checkable statistics to back ANY of it up! ...my college writing professor (of decades ago) would have given me a huge fat "F" if I tried to turn in what is commonly quoted as fact on the internet these days! All the antidotal evidence I always hear sited isn't worth the .00001¢ of hard drive space it is taking up on some web server some where!
If you are going base your statistics on ACTUAL shooting events you had darn well better list the time, location, parties involved (which I can see how this one piece of information might be redacted), police department and the number of the police report for EVERY single last one of them... or I will consider it just fanciful fiction!
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That predates the internet by decades. There were plenty of articles like that published in gun magazines before the internet existed.
One of the big problems is that no one collects the data we seek. Probably the best data out there is compiled by Tom Givens from debriefs of his students who have had deadly force encounters. But that is a very small sample.
It would be nice if there was a comprehensive after action review done after every defensive gun use, but there is not. Even police shootings (which are much better documented then civilian defensive gun uses) are not documented to any kind of nationwide standard and what documentation does exist isn’t readily available.
Jim Watson
Member
M. Ayoob used to quote from a NYPD study, but nothing at all recently.
Wonder why.
Wonder why.
Old Dog
Member
Again, that whole "3 shots, 3 yards, 3 seconds" thing is an invention.
Even in the Breonna Taylor affair, it looks as though Walker fired a single shot toward the door, striking a police officer in the leg. That officer and two others returned 32 shots. Taylor was hit five times .
If you guys really believe that in most gunfights, anyone -- notably, anyone who doesn't routinely get into gunfights -- stops shooting after firing only one or two, average of three, shots, you're fooling yourselves. Especially for those not accustomed to gunfights, the propensity is to shoot to slide-lock ...
We had a case a while back during a warrant entry where a subject was shot only 16 times (by two officers) and that seemed pretty restrained.
Even in the Breonna Taylor affair, it looks as though Walker fired a single shot toward the door, striking a police officer in the leg. That officer and two others returned 32 shots. Taylor was hit five times .
If you guys really believe that in most gunfights, anyone -- notably, anyone who doesn't routinely get into gunfights -- stops shooting after firing only one or two, average of three, shots, you're fooling yourselves. Especially for those not accustomed to gunfights, the propensity is to shoot to slide-lock ...
We had a case a while back during a warrant entry where a subject was shot only 16 times (by two officers) and that seemed pretty restrained.
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Trunk Monkey
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You do you
Sounds a lot like the Devil, in the Don Henley song : "There is no truth, there are no facts, just data, to be manipulated. I can get you any result you like, what's it worth to you?"
I have to agree with TomJ, that you have to be prepared for the very likely eventuality that your self defense situation may not be "average".
I have to agree with TomJ, that you have to be prepared for the very likely eventuality that your self defense situation may not be "average".
It was called the SOP 9, IIRC, and the stats were made available each year. Until they weren't. (According to at least one now-dis-remembered source.) Things change.
Very true indeed.
True also.
That's a key point.
No one in his right mind who is able to draw and fire against a charging attacker at close range would ever stop and assess after each shot.
And beyond all that--what could one conclude from an average?
crestoncowboy
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Very little.
Averages are only slightly useful. Even in industry where I work. Weights and such are hidden by Averages. Ive seen machines set up Heavier than spec to offset product that was under spec. Basically making 2x the bad product..... but the average was perfect.
I own a lot of cars. Not one has ever gotten close to the average city mileage around our roads. Regardless of who was driving them.
Also only a few extreme examples can really skewer averages. Often times the really rare events (say top and bottom 10%) are omitted to give a better average. Many here say "worst case scenario" but the worst cases may well be omitted.
I'm a handgun hunter. I rarely shoot less than 25 yards. I always ring my 100 yard 12x24 a few times each session. Even with my carry gun. (Yes I miss occasionally. But I know I can do it pretty regularly) . I carry a 10 round handgun. If I need it I have a 15 round reload.
I've heard in classes the 3 yard thing. I've also heard some say 7 yards. I've heard it attributed to many people. I never cared though. I figure focusing on that is missing the forest for the trees. Back years ago when I got my ccw permit our state mandated 7 yards in the training. We fired at 1,3, 5, and 7. Firing at 1 from the hip... interestingly enough.
I would also assume that the "average gunfight" as opposed to "average shooting" is by LEO. More than one of them there returning fire.
As far as average "shooting" I'd come closer to buying 3 rounds at 3 yards. Nearly every victim I've seen locally has been within 3 yards of the murderer. Usually inches away.
jmorris
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Statistics or odds are why folks wear bullet proof vests instead of pants. Doesn't mean people haven't died from a severed artery in a leg, just on average a COM hit is worse.
An average trip to the store doesn't end up in a car crash, yet thousands of them occur across this country every day, many resulting in death.
Even aside from events that don't fall into the average, you don't have to believe everything you read.
Not saying that's a lie but if they did they were not going 3000ft/sec, more like 32ft/sec/sec.
An average trip to the store doesn't end up in a car crash, yet thousands of them occur across this country every day, many resulting in death.
Even aside from events that don't fall into the average, you don't have to believe everything you read.
Not saying that's a lie but if they did they were not going 3000ft/sec, more like 32ft/sec/sec.
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