Powder prices? Seriously?????

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George P said:
Why? It would a minimum of a year to acquire the machinery, build new plant, etc.and for what? Biden has already stated how he plans to get rid of guns, ammo sales etc. on the internet and introduce more taxes basically making shooting too costly for most
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The best time to acquire more machinery is always yesterday. If they wait for the right time, it will always be behind them. The fact that there were numerous shortages over the last 20 years shows they don't have the capacity to handle the surges. I wouldn't count on Biden getting his way just yet. With the recent influx of 6M new gun owners there are more and more liberals owning guns now. Despite the shortage, the ranges near me have been full with 20-40 minute waits everytime I go. It's both good and bad. I'm just glad that I'm stocked up for about 2 years, but I am a bit concerned that this one will last longer than that.
 
Charlie98 said:
So many people have forgotten recent history, or are fixated on current events. If you'll recall, during the last Dark Ages, when the question of the future of AR's (etc,) and high cap magazines was always in question, let alone loaded ammos, demand stripped supply. But, as the market corrected itself... more ammo production, more AR production, more magazine production... and supply became available, what changed? Even as demand ramped up, yet again, in front of the 2016 Election... almost the day after the election, demand dropped. Within a year anything and everything was available, and you could even see product dumping by some manufacturers and retailers... stuck with huge stocks in the face of demand that faded almost overnight. The gunshows (here in Dallas) that were once filled with AR (etc) builders and suppliers... were gone. That's no lie.

Coming full circle in 4 years... here we are again, but with the added element of 'civil unrest.' Again, demand quickly stripped supply... deja vu all over again? The difference is, how many people or manufacturers are going to be willing to make the capital investment to start or increase production for what might very well be a short-term market? Once bitten, twice shy...
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One could even say that the vista acquisition of remmington ammunition was exactly that. They bought more capacity, when the information I read said that plant was operating at 10%. I would bet dollars to doughnuts that they will be operating at full capacity as soon as possible.
 
George P said:
Why? It would a minimum of a year to acquire the machinery, build new plant, etc.and for what? Biden has already stated how he plans to get rid of guns, ammo sales etc. on the internet and introduce more taxes basically making shooting too costly for most
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You know, I sure hate it for your guys, but, welcome to my world. We, here in Alaska, have been locked out of the online ammo market since they changed the shipping requirements for 1.4S (ammo/powder/primers). There isn't a single online vendor who will ship ammo to Alaska at any price. Even for those of us who are willing to pay the abusive shipping fees. (Even the sellers that have an AK shipping policy.) The sellers just absolutely, flat out, (insert expletive here) refuse. (And they tend to get pissy with you on the phone when you ask them to explain themselves.) We are wholly dependent upon a few box stores and a few, small LGS that have enough cash on hand to make massive orders (tens of thousands of dollars, several pallets at a time) and then bring the ammo up on a barge from Seattle. And yet, amazingly, somehow or another, we soldier on.

Howland937 said:
If that is the stated goal, then it would be easy enough to advocate building a stash of ammo/components to last a lifetime and perhaps beyond. It could nearly justify the panic buying, or at the very least lend some reasoning to it.
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This has been my position all along. Many people here point to previous panics that always seem to subside once the danger of new legislation has passed. Those same people are complacent due to that history. The political forces that will be arrayed against us in the near future make those previous patterns irrelevant.

Your statement here is a clarion call. If one doesn't have a genuine "lifetime supply" one had better be working on that. Your statement here suggests that we should stop focusing on buying new firearms and focus how to keep those firearms useful (ammo) in the distant future.
 
There just isn't powder available. None of the anecdotes matter about what is or is not on shelves. It is patently obvious that demand outstrips supply. None of these outlets want to have bare shelves for any appreciable amount of time, as that is just an insane concept of trying to run retail.

High prices are unfortunate and not laudable. If someone is making money, then they are making money, but who finds any reason to cheer them on any more than to complain. Capitalism isn't about throwing your money at someone else, or commenting on third party transactions. It's about doing the right thing for you, not for complaining nor praising transactions that have jack to do with you.
 
hardheart said:
None of these outlets want to have bare shelves for any appreciable amount of time, as that is just an insane concept of trying to run retail.
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...nor do any of these outlets wish to have full shelves, a backroom filled to the rafters, with product they may or may not be able to move. Not only is that their operating capital tied up in inventory, but that is inventory they have to pay tax on as well. It's a lose-lose for them.

AJC1 said:
They bought more capacity, when the information I read said that plant was operating at 10%.
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Assuming you are talking the Lonoke (AR) plant.... I find it hard to believe they were only running at 10% but it's possible given the dynamics of the market prior to 2020. There are also seasonal and contractual runs, they may have been in a lull.

Just remember... having the tooling and manpower to instantly go to 100% doesn't necessarily mean you can... there is the entire supply chain to feed production that has to get into motion before that first round drops off the chute.

Truth being stranger than fiction... I actually picked up a load from Lonoke back in the '90's; looking around the warehouse when they were loading my trailer... I was like a kid in a candy store. If memory serves, there was a fair amount of stock on the shelves; the load itself went to a distribution warehouse in Little Rock... where it came off my trailer and was immediately staged to go on other trailers... there was not a big stock of product.
 
D.B. Cooper said:
If one doesn't have a genuine "lifetime supply" one had better be working on that. Your statement here suggests that we should stop focusing on buying new firearms and focus how to keep those firearms useful (ammo) in the distant future.
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That's simply not a reasonable expectation. Even though I could purchase 350K primers (well not right now since there aren't any available), bullets, 350 pounds of powder, etc, where the hell would I store it all? More importantly where could I safely store it. I really don't want to buy a lifetime supply. I'm ok with a 2 year supply, but anything beyond that is absurd. Imagine needing to buy a lifetime supply of food, toilet paper, gasoline etc? We shouldn't have to. The ammo manufacturers need to up their game and be able to handle the feasts and famines. If they can't handle the surges, they are leaving big money on the table and destabilizing things for all the gun owners.
 
packetloss said:
That's simply not a reasonable expectation. Even though I could purchase 350K primers (well not right now since there aren't any available), bullets, 350 pounds of powder, etc, where the hell would I store it all? More importantly where could I safely store it. I really don't want to buy a lifetime supply. I'm ok with a 2 year supply, but anything beyond that is absurd. Imagine needing to buy a lifetime supply of food, toilet paper, gasoline etc? We shouldn't have to. The ammo manufacturers need to up their game and be able to handle the feasts and famines. If they can't handle the surges, they are leaving big money on the table and destabilizing things for all the gun owners.
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Actually they like everyone else are trying to avoid a huge tax bill for having a storeroom full of unsold product. The era of just in time supply and manufacturing was born.
 
Charlie98 said:
...nor do any of these outlets wish to have full shelves, a backroom filled to the rafters, with product they may or may not be able to move. Not only is that their operating capital tied up in inventory, but that is inventory they have to pay tax on as well. It's a lose-lose for them.



Assuming you are talking the Lonoke (AR) plant.... I find it hard to believe they were only running at 10% but it's possible given the dynamics of the market prior to 2020. There are also seasonal and contractual runs, they may have been in a lull.

Just remember... having the tooling and manpower to instantly go to 100% doesn't necessarily mean you can... there is the entire supply chain to feed production that has to get into motion before that first round drops off the chute.

Truth being stranger than fiction... I actually picked up a load from Lonoke back in the '90's; looking around the warehouse when they were loading my trailer... I was like a kid in a candy store. If memory serves, there was a fair amount of stock on the shelves; the load itself went to a distribution warehouse in Little Rock... where it came off my trailer and was immediately staged to go on other trailers... there was not a big stock of product.
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No, not talking about manufacturing. Retailers do not want to have bare shelves. That would mean horrendous return on assets, revenue per square foot, turnover rate, actual cash flow, and really any viable metric. To make money, they exchange product/service for it. Without product, they simply burn through their cash until they shut down. Businesses are trying to generate wealth by creating value. Not having anything to sell means no value is created for anyone, which means they can't pay rent/debt/wages, or most importantly, grow.

That's also the part that bugs me about resellers being idolized as capitalist ideals. The point of capitalism isn't to move wealth, it's to create it. This is not a situation where high GB prices can come close to doing that. No extra production capacity, warehousing, labor, complementary services, etc comes from some guy selling stuff out of his closet for three times retail. They operate at far too small a scale and no reasonable timeline. Money just moves to them during a panic, and then they go back to doing nothing useful for the industry, which they weren't doing anyway as we can see by the empty shelves. Nothing fundamentally props up their activity, it is myopic and limited. Might as well ask everyone to start buying beanie babies again, or turn them on to the sneaker game. This is just the least rational end of consumption, and it always comes crashing down once reason decides to pay the public a visit.
 
packetloss said:
That's simply not a reasonable expectation. Even though I could purchase 350K primers (well not right now since there aren't any available), bullets, 350 pounds of powder, etc, where the hell would I store it all? More importantly where could I safely store it. I really don't want to buy a lifetime supply. I'm ok with a 2 year supply, but anything beyond that is absurd. Imagine needing to buy a lifetime supply of food, toilet paper, gasoline etc? We shouldn't have to. The ammo manufacturers need to up their game and be able to handle the feasts and famines. If they can't handle the surges, they are leaving big money on the table and destabilizing things for all the gun owners.
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Neither consumers nor manufacturers can afford to hold onto everything necessary in perpetuity "just in case". They also face storage, supply, and cash issues, especially in the long run. As bad as things are, it's not due to sustainable long term shifts in demand. Everyone is impacted, and we just have to deal with the bad faith players that aren't making it any better.
 
hardheart said:
No, not talking about manufacturing. Retailers do not want to have bare shelves.
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That's exactly what I'm talking about when I said...

Charlie98 said:
...nor do any of these outlets wish to have full shelves, a backroom filled to the rafters, with product they may or may not be able to move.
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You have to follow the supply chain backwards... for every shop, there is a distributor behind them, and a warehouse behind them... that either has product, or not. Following that chain, the distributor cannot likewise be expected to stock an inordinate amount of inventory... nor a warehouse, nor a manufacturer. All 4 of those entities want to move product, sure... that's what they are in business to do... but, again, any one of them tying up huge amounts of capital with a backstock of product, particularly product with a shelf life, is foolhardy.
 
I'm not sure what you're saying. I'm saying people are wrong when they say this is the way the market is supposed to be. I'm saying this is not where retailers want to be, in aggregate. To me, this is not an ideal market nor capitalism at it's finest. This is a panic, replete with incomplete information and inaccurate forecasts by consumers. But so many people want to throw around "supply & demand" in these times as if this is fundamentally sound activity for the long haul.
 
hardheart said:
I'm not sure what you're saying. I'm saying people are wrong when they say this is the way the market is supposed to be. I'm saying this is not where retailers want to be, in aggregate. To me, this is not an ideal market nor capitalism at it's finest. This is a panic, replete with incomplete information and inaccurate forecasts by consumers. But so many people want to throw around "supply & demand" in these times as if this is fundamentally sound activity for the long haul.
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I view resellers as performing an economically important function. Manufacturers and retailers have failed to ensure supply by raising prices. They leave the same price tag on everything at pre panic prices and it is all gone. That means those willing to pay cannot get product and we don't really know the depth of demand as indicated by a floating price. The gunbroker reseller doing penny start no reserve auctions provides the solution to both problems.
 
brewer12345 said:
I view resellers as performing an economically important function. Manufacturers and retailers have failed to ensure supply by raising prices. They leave the same price tag on everything at pre panic prices and it is all gone. That means those willing to pay cannot get product and we don't really know the depth of demand as indicated by a floating price. The gunbroker reseller doing penny start no reserve auctions provides the solution to both problems.
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The solution is to stop taxing inventory. When there is no penalty for stocking warehouses full when prices drop. There will always be product available. Kind of like a dam stores excess rainfall to be used when there is less rain. Government tax policy is the real culprit. Though I don't expect to see that problem resolved.
 
LNK said:
The solution is to stop taxing inventory. When there is no penalty for stocking warehouses full when prices drop. There will always be product available. Kind of like a dam stores excess rainfall to be used when there is less rain. Government tax policy is the real culprit. Though I don't expect to see that problem resolved.
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A tax will generally pale in comparison to the combination of cost of capital, shrinkage, warehouse cash costs, etc.
 
LNK said:
The solution is to stop taxing inventory. When there is no penalty for stocking warehouses full when prices drop. There will always be product available. Kind of like a dam stores excess rainfall to be used when there is less rain. Government tax policy is the real culprit. Though I don't expect to see that problem resolved.
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That's correct the gvt has zero desire to help with this problem and would imo keep it this way if they could.
 
brewer12345 said:
A tax will generally pale in comparison to the combination of cost of capital, shrinkage, warehouse cash costs, etc.
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Actually, not really. The cost of the product vs the room it takes has more to do with whether is is stockpiled. A pound of powder doesn't take much room. We used to deplete our inventory annually to prevent excess taxes. We would then buy in bulk to get a price break, lowering our costs. We're it not for the annual taxes, we would only use up old slow moving inventory. Warehousing product to compensate for periods of slow replenishment is a natural thing for businesses to do. Which is why most here stock up when price and availability requires it. I am not paying $40/1000 for primers.
 
LNK said:
The solution is to stop taxing inventory. When there is no penalty for stocking warehouses full when prices drop. There will always be product available. Kind of like a dam stores excess rainfall to be used when there is less rain. Government tax policy is the real culprit. Though I don't expect to see that problem resolved.
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No there won't always be product available; FGI sitting in warehouses is a major cost; fast inventory turns help reduce overall costs. Carrying costs (what they are called), can be a real eliminator of profit so companies try to turn inventory immediately. This is what Walmart does so they can keep prices as low as possible and thus sell huge volumes.
 
George P said:
No there won't always be product available; FGI sitting in warehouses is a major cost; fast inventory turns help reduce overall costs. Carrying costs (what they are called), can be a real eliminator of profit so companies try to turn inventory immediately. This is what Walmart does so they can keep prices as low as possible and thus sell huge volumes.
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Not saying there will always be inventory available, just that inventory will be mostly available. Denying that taxes hurts inventory? Taxing inventory always hurts companies. Eliminating that inventory tax will certainly increase the availability of any product. To say otherwise is disingenuous.
 
Looking at the GB auction the seller has $10.00 shipping. Ground or post they are attemptimg to ship it illegally W/O haz-mat. Hope nobody gets hurt doinh this foolishness. Sounds like a flipper to me that doesn't know jack.
Too bad a bunch of you guys in AK could not get a shipping container or trailer load of ammo/supplies to be shipped or delivered to you and split the cost.
 
LNK said:
Not saying there will always be inventory available, just that inventory will be mostly available. Denying that taxes hurts inventory? Taxing inventory always hurts companies. Eliminating that inventory tax will certainly increase the availability of any product. To say otherwise is disingenuous.
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Never disagreed with you; those inventory taxes are one reason that Sparks, NV became the major warehouse distribution area for the West Coast - CA taxes are too high.
 
I have a pretty good stock of various things although it always seems that what I want to run next is what I don't have. I have always tried to buy powder/primers locally to avoid the hazmat charge. Now, that is no longer possible. The best store for this sort of thing in my area is a Sportsman's Warehouse. Unfortunately, that store has looked like it was looted for months now. Basically empty shelves on everything, not just in the gun department. I actually have a gift card for them, but there is NOTHING to buy! The local CabelBass store has always been a joke. I don't waste my time with them.

It's a fact of life, though, that no matter how well stocked you are, you will always run out of something unless you are wealthy enough to buy a lifetime supply. I have actually been thinking of buying a muzzle loader and/or a bow as backup, but even those two items require some type of market support (bullets, powder, bow strings). Maybe a good spear is the answer. With a sword backup.
 
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