Seven-Million New Shooters...

bikerdoc said:

I predict this time next year or sooner there will be bunch of used guns on the market.
Skippy realizes he isn't using it, the old lady is screaming it was wasted money, so he will want to sell it.

He will want close to retail and will find no takers.
I will offer him .40 cent on the dollar, cash American. Then sell it .50 cents on the dollar .
Everybody wins except Skippy.

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I've thought about this a bit as I'm sure others have too.
The motivation to resell something tends to depend on how much the investment represents to a person's overall budget and income. So if Skippy paid $500 for something which eventually evokes some buyer's regret, unless that's a significant chunk of change to Skippy, they'll probably not be in a position where they feel they have to sell it, especially at a huge loss. The average cost of a gun, especially ones a first-time buyer probably bought, isn't high enough to dent their pocketbooks in a way to elicit that reaction. Higher value items like cars are more apt to generate pressure from an unhappy spouse and end up on the secondary market.

Time will tell, I suppose. But people have cash to burn right now (look at real estate) so I don't predict there's going to be a used market flood of firearms anytime soon.

Threat level is gone, Derek Chauvin was convicted... Just sayin'

AlexanderA said:

Millions of new owners do not equate to millions of new shooters. Guns (and ammo) are being bought and then squirreled away.

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True, but if they were shooters the problem would only be worse since they would need to buy more.

Never under estimate the nagging power of Suzy Q and the weakness of her beta husband.
So glad 30 years ago I married a redneck girl that likes guns as much as I do.

9 MILLION NEW PATRIOTS and shootists to bolster our numbers. Welcome aboard!

DeepSouth said:

I’ve been though this this before, a few times. I learned my lesson in ‘08. Prices went down and boy I stacked deep at cheap, at one time I had a temporary promotion at work which came with a substantial raise and I was buying around 1,000 rounds of something every week, for months.

Right now today I can go shoot certain calibers sunrise to sunset. I’ve got thousands of rounds of some things but zero of others, and that’s where the problem comes in.

what I didn’t know was what I’d have in the future. I thought I was good, I was wrong. I recently bought my first 44mag and man I love that thing, also have under a hundred rounds for it and it was not cheap.
Also bought a 38 special to carry, I simply don’t have and can’t find/afford enough ammo to really get comfortable with it, as a carry gun. And defense is ammo, lol maybe one day.
Wanted to shoot my LCP the other day just to check function as I do carry it occasionally and hadn’t shot it in a while, well, no cigar.

what I’ve learned this time, when prices come down and availability goes up, this ol boy’s gonna start reloading and hoarding reloading supplies. I know reloading supplies are dry to but I can stack it up and if I get into a new caliber or two I can find/buy some dies and a little brass. With any luck I’ll have enough powder and primers to get by for a while.

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Yep, you can never have enough ammo

One thing not yet mentioned in this thread is the number of guns sold ftf locally to first time gun buyers. I've seen 1000s of guns for sale in our local classifieds and our local Trader publication that sells cars, boats, tractors, lawn mowers, bows, guns, etc. I can only imagine how many gun owners sold guns they've had but never shoot in order to buy newer guns they really want.

Also, if mentioned I failed to see it but there have been some reports than Covid Relief checks were used to buy 100s of 1000s of new guns and ammo by first time, first gun, young people and blacks ... especially black women. That one still astounds me and I see them all the time in my local gun stores.

reloaded_in_pa said:

I have one question about the number of new gun owners.

Without a national register, how does anyone know if a sold gun is going to a first time gun owner ?

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I think the data is compiled by NICS data that is provided to the NSSF which breaks it down by various groups without providing specific personal data ... so yours is a good question.

It also does not take into account the millions of guns purchased by those of us with CWPs who are not affected by NICS therefore our numbers do not go into the system.

Additionally distributors and manufacturers and retail sales outlets provide the NSSF with a lot of data.

Bottom line is that it is all an educated guess ... rough guesstimation, a WAG. Which is why I contend that there are more guns out there, millions more, than will ever be reported.

All of this should be figured into the skyrocketing demand for ammo and reloading components. Which brings to mind another point .... the data on reloading equipment and components is lacking but we know demand is staggering given the sheer pressure on Lee, Lyman, RCBS, Dillon, Redding, etc. Forget about components for a moment because most of that is the result of factories being shut down by Covid and demand from the major manufacturers for components ... but the real telling data is the number of presses that have been sold. The last number I heard was that 120k presses have been sold since June of last year through March of this year in this country alone not counting Europe and Australia which both consume a lot of the market product. (Read that either in American Rifleman or Shooting Illustrated) So compound those new press numbers when your talking about dies and shell holders, tumblers and such ... it's just mind boggling.

I seriously doubt there were more than a few hundred thousand reloaders nationwide prior to March of 2020. Now add 120k more ... or at least more presses being pressed into action (pardon the pun) combined with the component shortage and it just is hard to get a grasp on it all.

JCooperfan1911 said:

9 MILLION NEW PATRIOTS and shootists to bolster our numbers. Welcome aboard!

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Some significant portion of the new owners are probably leftists. From what I can see, they're arming up as fast as the others.

bikerdoc said:

I predict this time next year or sooner there will be bunch of used guns on the market.
Skippy realizes he isn't using it, the old lady is screaming it was wasted money, so he will want to sell it.

He will want close to retail and will find no takers.
I will offer him .40 cent on the dollar, cash American. Then sell it .50 cents on the dollar .
Everybody wins except Skippy.

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OTOH, many will feel a new sense of security and protection, with that new firearm, regardless of whether they ever shoot it, or it just gathers dust. But essentially, one way or the other, they'll be keeping it. And it will effect the political makeup of America, as these same new gun owners vote, to protect their rights, as gun owners.

Dibbs said:

OTOH, many will feel a new sense of security and protection, with that new firearm, regardless of whether they ever shoot it, or it just gathers dust. But essentially, one way or the other, they'll be keeping it. And it will effect the political makeup of America, as these same new gun owners vote, to protect their rights, as gun owners.

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I agree with you . No matter how attached folks get to an object , they never want it taken away from them .

I wonder who Susie-Q told Skippy to vote for and what kind of car does Skippy drive? Skippy lives in a haunted, upside down world - Skippy will keep his gun because it is his only remaining connection to manhood besides his can of beer. Skippy’s gun is his lost testosterone, his bullets will corrode and his gut will grow. Skippy uses the F word around the guys at work and Karen next door won’t pay attention to him. Skippy will drink even more beer, he will wonder what happened to his life, he will embellish stories in the break room and he will keep his gun. Life scares Skippy.

Steve S. said:

I wonder who Susie-Q told Skippy to vote for and what kind of car does Skippy drive? Skippy lives in a haunted, upside down world - Skippy will keep his gun because it is his only remaining connection to manhood besides his can of beer. Skippy’s gun is his lost testosterone, his bullets will corrode and his gut will grow. Skippy uses the F word around the guys at work and Karen next door won’t pay attention to him. Skippy will drink even more beer, he will wonder what happened to his life, he will embellish stories in the break room and he will keep his gun. Life scares Skippy.

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Poor Skippy

AlexanderA said:

Millions of new owners do not equate to millions of new shooters. Guns (and ammo) are being bought and then squirreled away.

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This sure looks to be true because there is almost no one shooting at the local range anymore. I search the range over each time I go there & only come back with a small handful of brass.

Or maybe they have turned into reloaders or realize that the brass can be sold for a profit after use. I also think that some will buy a firearm and box of expensive ammo then put it in a drawer to be forgotten like the last ten or so fads of other items. Thinking gameboy etc.

Steve S. said:

I wonder who Susie-Q told Skippy to vote for and what kind of car does Skippy drive? Skippy lives in a haunted, upside down world - Skippy will keep his gun because it is his only remaining connection to manhood besides his can of beer. Skippy’s gun is his lost testosterone, his bullets will corrode and his gut will grow. Skippy uses the F word around the guys at work and Karen next door won’t pay attention to him. Skippy will drink even more beer, he will wonder what happened to his life, he will embellish stories in the break room and he will keep his gun. Life scares Skippy.

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Skippy's dream was to live forever. Now that he's married to Suzie-Q, he won't live forever, it'll just feel that way...

AlexanderA said:

Some significant portion of the new owners are probably leftists. From what I can see, they're arming up as fast as the others.

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I believe there is a lot of truth to this. From everything I've been seeing and hearing the left has been buying guns like crazy in the last year. I think this is across the whole left spectrum from people who were afraid of what would happen during Covid and the mass riots last year, all the way to those who were responsible for participating.

Dibbs said:

OTOH, many will feel a new sense of security and protection, with that new firearm, regardless of whether they ever shoot it, or it just gathers dust. But essentially, one way or the other, they'll be keeping it. And it will effect the political makeup of America, as these same new gun owners vote, to protect their rights, as gun owners.

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I doubt that last part. The distinction between gun owners (true enthusiasts) and people who own a gun is significant. Buying a gun on an impulse puts the individual squarely in the latter group. It's not indicative of some grand epiphany. In fact, I'd wager that a lot of the first time buyers in that category are conflicted on becoming one. Simply owning a gun doesn't make the RKBA front and center in someone's life any more than buying a generator makes someone a prepper.

It would certainly be nice if all these new buyers were more conscientious of the big picture, but it's unlikely that's the case. If anything, all these new folks are a wake up call to us enthusiasts that we need to divest ourselves of the politics behind the 2A as it absolutely has poisoned the greater cause.

Basura Blanca-- I see that you have been around this site for many years and the subject may have come up before but I gotta say I love your screen moniker.

reloaded_in_pa said:

how does anyone know if a sold gun is going to a first time gun owner ?

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Airborne Falcon said:

I think the data is compiled by NICS data

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The "new shooter" numbers are all anecdotal--there's virtually no way (and shouldn't be, by statute) to know new from not-new.
CA had to assemble an estimate of "new" owners at the specific request of Justice Benitez, and the best they could offer was "new applicants" to the CA FOID system.
NSSF has been collating reports, largely from FFL, on the numbers. FOID States may have data, but I've not seen it published.
The mainstream press has pooh-poohed the notion of a "huge" number of "new" owners even in the face of record NICS volume. I've seen (self-serving) estimates as low as 2 million. I've seen numbers as high as 16 million too (for equally self-serving reasons). The 8 million seems to track reasonably well with the tabulated CA numbers, at least mathematically.

JCooperfan1911 said:

9 MILLION NEW PATRIOTS and shootists

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Sadly, people who "just want a gun for the nightstand" are not really dedicated shooters and/or "patriots."
Were it so, NRA, SOF, GOA, etc. membership would have swollen by millions, at least.
Buying a gun and a box of ammo because one is frightened is not the same as buying same because one is politically motivated.
Some portion of the 8 million will, in fact, not think of themselves as "gun owners" even when asked, due to the negative stereotypes pushed in modern media over the last five decades.

Basura Blanca said:

Simply owning a gun doesn't make the RKBA front and center in someone's life any more than buying a generator makes someone a prepper.

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I didn't say it would "make the RKBA front and center" in the new gun owner's lives. But thank you, for putting words in my mouth. I was merely pointing out that now that these people own a gun, they will have a dog in the hunt, and they are far less likely to be anti-gun, or support a paradigm which will result in their firearm being banned or confiscated.

A former coworker grew up near London UK. He originally came over here for the Aviation Major at Delta State University in MS.

He lives near Memphis TN,

is a kitchen table (literally) FFL, has the
Tax Stamps for his select-fire MP-5, and Chinese AKM Type 56. I’ve briefly tried both guns.

-And he votes Democrat. Without a doubt.-
If you saw these guns and His others (PTR-91, AR with SBR) , you might draw an erroneous conclusion about him.

Don’t automatically count on most of the new gun owners voting a certain “way”, based on what is often a Temporary “Need” for a gun

Ignition Override said:

A former coworker grew up near London UK. He originally came over here for the Aviation Major at Delta State University in MS.

He lives near Memphis TN,

is a kitchen table (literally) FFL, has the
Tax Stamps for his select-fire MP-5, and Chinese AKM Type 56. I’ve briefly tried both guns.

-And he votes Democrat. Without a doubt.-
If you saw these guns and His others, you might draw an erroneous conclusion about him.

Don’t automatically count on most of the new gun owners voting a certain “way”, based on what is often a Temporary “Need” for a gun

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You nailed it , well said . I know many people like the gentleman you describe .

gnappi said:

Threat level is gone, Derek Chauvin was convicted... Just sayin'

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If that was intended to be a joke , I'm not laughing.

The estimates I have been given is that it was 10 million new owners, most of whom are Democrats, in the 14 month period from January 2020 thru February 2021. We saw a 40% increase in sales just in 2020. My state, Indiana was third in the nation in growth at 60%. Illinois was second at 121% (NJ was #1 at 124%). States like CO (-10%) and VA (-25%) saw drop in sales.

Add to that we shut down factories for four months and you have a huge problem.

Dibbs said:

I guess people WANT to pay the higher prices, for ammo, at this point. Otherwise, why would they rip every box of ammo off every shelf they see, every time, everywhere. It's becoming obvious to the most casual observer, that everybody prizes high ammo prices, over patience. Nobody really wants the prices to go down, because they can't seem to leave it alone.

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So it seems. The people who are whining the most about the shortage are the same ones that clear the shelves regardless of what they need. I've a friend who buys every 12 ga. shell at whichever store he can find them in and has been doing so week after week... to each their own but shoot, it seems like he's contributing to the problem just so he can complain about not being able to find anything. Makes no sense.