Ammo predictions (5/6/21)?

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Doesn't seem to be a run on 50 BMG FMJ ammo :)
Centerfire Systems, in stock and on sale for $35 (was $44) for 10 rounds. I recall years ago that 10 rounds for the simple FMJ was typically ~$30 at gun shows, AP , API you were doing good to find for ~$6 per round.
 
The reason people, especially new gun buyers, are hoarding titanic amounts of ammunition the likes of which this nation has never seen is because the terrorists who come up with the news are in the business of convincing people that there is going to be a civil war and we’re all going to be killing each other in the streets as society collapses. That’s the bottom line. Someone’s gonna take all your guns, and all your bullets, and life as we know it is ending and the sky is falling. These are the stories that pay the bills for these scum.

We all need to step back, take a chill pill, STOP hoarding ammo and just learn to get along with one another. That’s the only thing that will fix this mess.
 
The reason people, especially new gun buyers, are hoarding titanic amounts of ammunition the likes of which this nation has never seen
I don't think it's the new owners doing this. If you never shot before, then a 1k case is a very large amount. Coupled with today's prices, and that's a huge investment for someone just stepping into the lifestyle of shooting. It might be more common with a rifle (let's say you buy and load a lot of mags), but for a pistol, I would guess most get a a couple hundred range loads (if they can) and maybe a box or 2 of hollowpoints.

The "hoarding" is being largely done by 2 groups- those of us who already own a few and shoot (and this group mostly had their base stash prior to the madness), and by speculators who see ammo flipping as a way to make a quick buck.

I mean, you have to consider the economics of it. A lot of people simply can not afford to continuously buy at these prices, not in quantities that would affect the market. A case of cheap steel 223 or 9mm costs over $600. Even $400 for 7.62x39 adds up in a hurry.
 
Part of the problem here is all these economic stimulus checks. When money is no longer scarce, inflation is the end result. The concept of inflation has not raised its ugly head in decades and now it is a concern.

For example, how many of you have spent stimulus check money on guns, ammunition, or components that you otherwise would not have purchased?
 
I posted the below on another post, but this is a better venue (and I updated it slightly):

The plenty of ammo available but most at ridiculous/desperation prices was my observation at the last two gun shows I went to. My email inbox is getting daily emails from vendors that bulk ammo is in stock, and their prices have dropped. I know paying $700 for 1k of brass-cased 223/5.56 is outrageous, but when it was like $900 just 2 months ago, that is a huge price drop. More is coming. I think the ammo supply is catching up and creative vendors tracked down a lot of obscure brands (like Igman) and stocked up to the best of their ability. Now...those who paid premium plus want to offload, but week by week, the demand decreases as folks like me sit on the fence and wait for the prices to continue to fall. As someone else posted, I don't see new handgun and AR owners buying more than few hundred rounds at these prices. I truly think--barring another "event" that stokes the fires of panic buying (which is ALWAYS a possibility)--that prices will continue to decrease slowly...until some major online vendor blinks and offers a major decrease in bulk 9mm or 223/556. Others will have no choice but to follow.

So, I'll continue to wait, as I think and hope ammo will be both available and significantly cheaper by mid-summer (late July). Still well above pre-COVID prices, but more like $20 for 50 rounds of quality brass-cased 9mm. We'll see, but I think the tide has turned and is moving in the right direction for buyers.
 
The "hoarding" is being largely done by 2 groups- those of us who already own a few and shoot (and this group mostly had their base stash prior to the madness), and by speculators who see ammo flipping as a way to make a quick buck.
Agreed. Most new shooters I see at the ranges will fire 1/2 -1 box of ammo then pack up. I'd be willing to bet a good percentage of them *never* shoot their new purchase, they just buy it "just in case"
 
I don't think it's the new owners doing this.
±7 million new shooters (a middle of the road estimate) time two boxes is 14 million boxes of ammo. Figuring that at one box of 50 FMJ and one box of 20 SD, and that's 490,000,000 rounds.

The couf shut down the factories in a number of States, or severely reduced working hours. Then this was all on top of a record lack of heavy transportation (which we're not on the other side of, really) and all that will have an impact.

Now, given the amount of ammo at gun shows seems to indicate volume is available, or beginning to be. At least to me.
Reloading components are probably the final bellweather to watch, though.

As my guess, and a pure guess based on previous examples, we'll see precipitous price decreases online first. It will take time for those to filter down to the LGS level (and some of those will be "stuck" having bought steep and having to sell cheap, or not at all).
 
Skeptic13:

Following online distributor AIMsurplus since September, they only began offering Any 7.62x39 in the last few weeks or so. And yes, it's Russian.

JGsales has had several choices (7.62x39) since September, but AIMsurplus only recently had any available.
My intermittent 'tracking' began after tearing the calf muscle when running (watch those tiny micro stumps).

As soon as they start shipping more steel-cased .223 into the US, more availability of Russian .223 should mean gradually lower prices for US-made, brass-cased .223....etc, etc.....
 
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Skeptic13:

Following online distributor AIMsurplus since September, they only began offering Any 7.62x39 in the last few weeks or so. And yes, it's Russian.

JGsales has had several choices (7.62x39) since September, but AIMsurplus only recently had any available.

As soon as they start shipping more steel-cased .223 into the US, more availability of Russian .223 should mean gradually lower prices for US-made, brass-cased .223....etc, etc.....

FWIW AIMSurplus was selling boxes of Wolf 7.62x39 for $3.49, .223 for $3.99, and 50 round boxes of 9mm for $6.59 at the beginning of 2020!
 
Part of the problem here is all these economic stimulus checks. When money is no longer scarce, inflation is the end result. The concept of inflation has not raised its ugly head in decades and now it is a concern.

For example, how many of you have spent stimulus check money on guns, ammunition, or components that you otherwise would not have purchased?
I bet you are a thousand percent correct!
 
For example, how many of you have spent stimulus check money on guns, ammunition, or components that you otherwise would not have purchased?
Three checks, three new toys thanks to stupid politico's. I never would have bought them otherwise.

Bill
 
Part of the problem here is all these economic stimulus checks. When money is no longer scarce, inflation is the end result. The concept of inflation has not raised its ugly head in decades and now it is a concern.

For example, how many of you have spent stimulus check money on guns, ammunition, or components that you otherwise would not have purchased?

My stimulus checks went straight into my savings account.
Didn't need them.
 
As my guess, and a pure guess based on previous examples, we'll see precipitous price decreases online first. It will take time for those to filter down to the LGS level (and some of those will be "stuck" having bought steep and having to sell cheap, or not at all).
Some big chains such as Academy, if/when you can find stuff in stock, just blow the doors off online prices, as I understand. I see posts in another forum (a local one for me) that constantly say how low they have it.
Another big chain, Bass Pro/Cabela's, they were the last guys I bought 9mm from. That was last year, during the run in the spring. I never bought online from them before, because others were cheaper and I lived within an hour's drive to 2 of them (one of each brand). But I got Herter's, a case for $200 last May.
These chains can buy big orders and ship anywhere, so they probably get favorable deliveries compared to individual stores. They carry other stuff so they can afford to ride the low end on ammo.
Walmart, before they got out, was even better. I got some 30-30 last winter for just about "normal", was shocked to hear how much it was online in comparison.

Online shops, in comparison, "usually" are lower, to compete. They will have to do so again, once Academy and Cabelas restock.
 
These chains can buy big orders and ship anywhere, so they probably get favorable deliveries compared to individual stores. They carry other stuff so they can afford to ride the low end on ammo.
They have tremendous "leverage" for sales.
They can sell ammo at a loss if they care to, as long as you come in and drop $50 for your kid's catcher's mitt, since they outgrew the one from last year. Or you collect up fishing accessories. Or anything else they have huge markups on.
It's just business. It's harder for the LGS, unless you get their high-return items when you buy ammo.
 
Skeptic13:

Following online distributor AIMsurplus since September, they only began offering Any 7.62x39 in the last few weeks or so. And yes, it's Russian.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe its Ukrainian, not Russian. Probably the only reason Biden hasn't banned its importation.
 
Wally: much of it easily could still be Ukrainian.

Edited here. Woops----
Misunderstood your second comment. My skimming-reading 'comprehension' is no so good late at night.
 
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After Biden's Executive Action on Guns, Background Checks Continue at a Record Pace (msn.com)

The executive actions Biden issued last month essentially called on agencies in his administration to tighten up regulations and compile reports. Among the actions Biden took, he wants to

  • Crack down on homemade firearms, which some hold as a historical American tradition;
  • Make pistol stabilizers subject to the National Firearms Act, which would put them in the same category as machine guns, sawed-off shotguns, and grenades;
  • Develop so-called model "red flag" laws that would allow states to strip gun owners of their firearms without due process if they were thought to be a danger to themselves or others; and
  • Nominate to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives an individual who has been described as a "fierce advocate for gun control."
 
I know this is a touchy subject, threads get whacked a lot as we veer off topic, and the topic itself does get repeated and beaten to death. If this belongs in a different forum group, mods please move it...

So that said, within the last month I've noticed a HUGE increase in my email inbox. Every day, I'm getting 20+ "We've Got Ammo!!!" emails from different sites, that I've long had subscriptions to. This is a big change; over the last year a lot had been silent, and only occasionally would I get a notice of a special deal (i.e. log in on Thursday at 7pm EST and we will have 100 cases of blah-blah at this price, limit 1 per household).
Now, I've got 6-7 different sites begging me to come buy their (still expensive, but a bit lower) ammo, usually with 3-4 different brands to choose from. Daily, something a couple times a day.

Does this mean, in the board's estimation, that we've turned the corner on the shortage big-picture? If so, how much longer do you think it will be, before these places start dropping their prices (hey, we're selling this cheaper than those guys, buy from us)? Right now, it seems like 9mm brass is sitting around 70-80 cents a rd, but if sgammo or targetsportsusa drops it to 50, the others would follow quickly. You know (or I assume) it will happen, and once it starts, it should move back to reasonable fairly quick- they will basically get in a bidding war for our dollars.

How much longer before this happens, do you think?

My own guess is maybe this fall. I don't think you can sit on product as a retailer very long, and someone will break ranks.

1. The manufacturers were shut down for four months last year and had to complete their contracts. That took, running 24/7, until the end of April.
2. Now that contracts are current look for manufacturers to stockpile so that they are a couple of months a head on contracts.
3. Since both the high speed mainlines (those dedicated to making high demand calibers like 5.56 or 9mm) and the sidelines are set up to making ammo for the contracts and running 24/7 there should be excess that can go to the spot market. That is what you are seeing show up.
4. It is going to be fall before shelves start filling up, the paranoia calms down and prices drop. However it may take until November 2022 for many of the odd calibers to show up in quantity.

The price increases were driven by the online dealers and by the wholesales houses. Not the local retailer. Those companies can buy truck loads of ammo. BTW you can order direct from most manufacturers. They tend to have a minimum quantity however.

Does that give a better picture?
 
MidwayUSA jacked primer prices up to $75 per 1000 and I still don't see any. I concur with Pices - when primers sit on the shelf again, and long enough that they don't get scorched being pulled OFF the shelf, then I will think we're getting somewhere.



Looking at GB it appears that primers are slowly coming down in price. I don’t think they will drop below $150/k for awhile though
 
Just another tiny glimmer of better news.

At JGsales, the lowest price for a large (1,000 rds.) case of 7.62x39 just dropped a > second time < in the last month or so.
Tula fmj now $379.
* And this $20 change, although small, is over the last few days.

This slight, second change doesn't seem to be widespread - yet - but can indicate a slightly improved rate of future discounts.
And in the last few weeks, for the First time Since September, AIMsurplus offered this chambering (7.62x39). I'll wait for a large case to get a good bit below $300 before buying any.

This won't help the microchips needed in many thousands of Ford trucks parked in different areas, or the 100,000 Volkswagens...Not being produced due to microchip shortages. Or lumber, tin, copper etc.

But after all, this is still Mostly a gun/ammo website.:scrutiny:
 
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don't think it's the new owners doing this. If you never shot before, then a 1k case is a very large amount.
I have a friend who did exactly that. He bought his first gun, a .22 rifle, last spring to get the gophers out of his garden. Then last summer, he got a case of sky-is-falling-itis, not so much about the demonstrations as about the political climate in general, and bought a .223 semi-auto and 1000 rounds of ammo.

I think it depends on the motivation behind that first-time gun buy. Some people are afraid of TEOTWAWKI, while others are afraid of new gun bans. The latter group are the ones that probably won't shoot more than a few boxes before they put the gun away for good.

Hoarding has its own life cycle. People run out of space to store all this ammo that they're never going to shoot, not to mention which the high prices are going to discourage them from buying more. When all the new gun owners hit that stage, then things will start slowly coming back to normal.
 
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