"I Feel Comfortable with..."

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.38 Special said:
A typical real encounter does not actually involve any shots being fired
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That is completely irrelevant to the discussion.

.38 Special said:
And of those encounters which do, the average number of shots fired is less than five.
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that os often said, butno one really knows.

If it were true, it wouldn't matter. No one in his right mind would design a risk mitigation strategy on the basis of an average.

Read this:

[URL="https://www.thehighroad.org/index.php?threads/the-allure-and-shortcomings-of-statistics-and-actual-data.869921/"]The Allure and Shortcomings of Statistics and Actual Data[/URL]

.38 Special said:
It appears that you have been training for an extremely atypical scenario.
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I have not chosen the scenarios. They were designed by knowledgeable trainers.
 
mcb said:
I always saw drills as ways to become proficient with you firearms. They are training you do to make manipulation your weapon second nature. You are not going to execute training drill #XX in a particular self defense situation. You are going to do what it take to survive and escape and not have to think about how to manipulate your weapon if you need to use it
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Absolutely true, for shooting drills.

There are other kinds of drills--shoot/no-shoot, managing risk to bystanders, threat identification, use of cover and concealment, etc.

Much of the latter can be practiced mentally without even touching a firearm.
 
Kleanbore said:
That is completely irrelevant to the discussion.
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No, it isn't.

Kleanbore said:
No one in his right mind would design a risk mitigation strategy on the basis of an average.
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This appears to be an admission that you are training for a fight that would be well outside the statistical norms, while castigating fellow THR members who don't.

Kleanbore said:
I have not chosen the scenarios. They were designed by knowledgeable trainers.
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Read this:

The logical fallacy of appealing to authority.
 
.38 Special said:
No, it isn't.
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What may be required for defense in the event of the occurrence of a use of force incident is not a function of the likelihood that the incident would occur. That's basic statistics.

.38 Special said:
This appears to be an admission that you are training for a fight that would be well outside the statistical norms,
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No. That, too, is basic statistics.

One cannot judge what may or may not be "outside the statistical norms" on the basis of averages, whether means, modes, or medians.

.38 Special said:
...while castigating fellow THR members who don't
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I castigate no one.

.38 Special said:
Read this:
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I am not referring to experts to support a claim of anything, but to explain my reason for having trained in the scenarios mentioned.

Do you believe that you could design more applicable training drills? If so, do you have an objective bassi for that belief?
 
Once you fall back on your "basic statistics" boilerplate, Kleanbore, my eyes glaze over.

Just to keep on topic: you took some training during which your revolver was inadequate. That quite literally means nothing beyond that you took some training during which your revolver was inadequate. I can design a drill in which no gun you can offer will be adequate. And?
 
Kleanbore said:
What may be required for defense in the event of the occurrence of a use of force incident is not a function of the likelihood that the incident would occur. That's basic statistics.
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Are you saying an armed encounter where no shots were fired isn't an incident?
 
mavracer said:
Are you saying an armed encounter where no shots were fired isn't an incident?
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No.

Good point.

It is just that the discussion of incidents in which shots were fired would not hinge upon the likelihood of shots having been fired in the first place.
 
Kleanbore said:
It is just that the discussion of incidents in which shots were fired would not hinge upon the likelihood of shots having been fired in the first place.
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Well if you really want to bolster your position you should go ahead and ignore all the encounters where less than 8 rounds or more than 10 were fired then you could really be dancing on the point of a pin instead of the head as you do with your monthly denigration of guys that carry a 5 shot snub.
 
mavracer said:
Well if you really want to bolster your position you should go ahead and ignore all the encounters where less than 8 rounds or more than 10 were fired then you could really be dancing on the point of a pin
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That makes no sense.

Carrying eight rounds does not reflect "my position"--it is my choice, and it results in part from the fact that my firearm of choice does not carry ten;

mavracer said:
....as you do with your monthly denigration of guys that carry a 5 shot snub.
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I denigrate no one.

I don't care what anyone carries.

Most of the trained staff and current and former LEO members here do carry more than five--I have not been alone in speaking of that--but I doubt that they will denigrate those who do not, either.

it's a matter probability. One shot may effect an immediate stop, but no one trains to pause after one shot. Two or three might suffice. We recently saw a video of an incident that required twelve.

It' all a matter of risk--of understanding the risks, and of one's personal risk tolerance.

I am extremely risk averse.
 
mavracer said:
Semantics.
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No. My personal choice needs no "bolstering". I'm not sure it is the best.

mavracer said:
Bovine feces
Your monthly rants about this guy who is ok carrying a 5 shot snub borders on obsessive.
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"Rants"? No. Monthly? No.

You seem resistant to discussion of objective analysis.

Some years ago, JohnKSa decided, on a hunch, to run some calculations based on assumed hit rates, of the cumulative likelihood of prevailing against one or two attackers with differing ammunition capacities.

Anyone was free to challenge the assumptions and to run their own numbers.

The graphs were very surprising to him, and to some of us who carried five shot revolvers at the time.

Based in part on that realization and in part on some training, I changed my carry choice--and found that the SR-9c was no larger.

One alternative that I considered was that of carrying two five shot snubs. This was before the return of six shot choices. I have one of those now.

A constant refrain here is "I feel comfortable with my ______".

An informed judgment, based on knowledge and understanding of the relevant factors, and on the individual's personal level of risk tolerance, is fine.

All of us needed help at some time to reach the level of understanding necessary to make such a judgment.

The purpose of ST&T is to foster discussions to improve understanding of important issues of many different kinds,
 
.38 Special said:
A typical real encounter does not actually involve any shots being fired. And of those encounters which do, the average number of shots fired is less than five. It appears that you have been training for an extremely atypical scenario.
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So, what if you're the lucky guy whose Dynamic Critical Incident is above average?
 
Kleanbore said:
As I holstered my S&W EZ 9 before heading down for coffee this morning, I made a mental note of how it felt, comfort-wise, in the OWB holster. I have been plagued with back pain for some years now. It varies from day to day.

It's not bad.

I happened to think of a discussion on-going in the Revolvers forum. One often hears "I feel comfortable carrying my...." (usually, a small revolver).

I'm never sure about what someone is thinking when they say that.

Perhaps it is something along the lines of "I really don't expect to encounter trouble today, so I should be fine with five shots--I likely won't fire the thing anyway".

Perhaps it is something subconscious, such as "just having my gun with me makes me feel safe".

It could be that the person has little experience in shooting rapidly in a defensive drill, or has little knowledge of the realities of handgun wounding effectiveness, and may not understand the real limitations of his weapon.

It could be about the weight of an Airweight S&W vs that of a loaded Browning Hi-Power.

To understand, we would have to ask just what someone does mean. I'm sure most everyone is different.

I really, really do not expect to encounter trouble today ,or on any other day, but I carry anyway.

I cannot honestly say that it makes me feel"comfortable", in terms of personal safety. I know that it will not ward off evil-doers by being in my holster.

I know from training that I prefer tmy firearm to a five-shot piece that is difficult for me to fire rapidly with combat accuracy, but hat does not make me feel safe.

I believe that, both for me and for every other non-sworn officer who has the choice, the best thing is to keep my eyes and ears open, keep thinking, to notice trouble before it happens, and to steer away from it quickly.

Since I do not feel fearful, I guess I can say I feel "comfortable". But the firearm on my hip is not what makes me comfortable.

If there is some place in which I would not want to go without a gun, I don't want to got here with one.

I strongly recommend training--real defensive training, and not shooting slowly at a square range. That's a whole lot more important than the kind of firearm.
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Very good post,and one that should be answered by all who peruse these items.

I went to a 'police function' yesterday and there was a very slight chance that it could be an 'incident' due to all the anti police B.S. lately.

For the first time in a decade I wore my duty gun with 2 spare magazines.

And in case you wondered,YES it felt better when I was looking backwards to the likely threat area,while all were focused on the show we came to see.

I felt much better [ and yes,I train with that pistol often ] having what I carried for real threats for decades [ S&W M&P .40 ].

I do often feel comfortable while in the gym with 'only' a S&W 360PD and one stripper of backup ammo.

So your question as to what is comforting,comfortable,and our view of how we feel in such zones.

I am also of the school that believes a gun is and should be "comforting" and not required to be "comfortable".

Also it should be as normal to wear as your underpants & socks.
 
bdickens said:
So, what if you're the lucky guy whose Dynamic Critical Incident is above average?
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Then I lose, presumably.

The whole point, really, is that there is a level at which we lose. That level may be because we are under armed, or under trained, or simply because we are faced with an impossible situation. So we're all taking our best guess - or best compromise, really - with our guns, training, etc. and hoping it's enough. The only real issue is that some folks seem to think that their guesses are better than everyone else's, and feel qualified to say so.
 
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bdickens said:
So, what if you're the lucky guy whose Dynamic Critical Incident is above average?
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Well, I’ll have to rely more on strategy, tactics and thinking. There seems to be this mindset of ‘I have to have X number of rounds in order to succeed and be safe’. Wrong!

There are gunfights where you couldn’t win no matter how much ammo you have. Think of an active shooter encased in body armor like the Hollywood bandits were years ago.

It’s not just round counts. It’s keeping your wits about you and planning a strategy that might see you walk away.

(and no, bdickens, I’m not picking on you. Your post was just convenient)
 
Kleanbore said:
You seem resistant to discussion of objective analysis.
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You're the one trying to exclude armed incidents that don't fit your position. Objectivity requires you to look at all sides.
Kleanbore said:
Some years ago, JohnKSa decided, on a hunch, to run some calculations based on assumed hit rates, of the cumulative likelihood of prevailing against one or two attackers with differing ammunition capacities.
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Case in point you focus only on the differential and not the % compared to the total encounters.
Otherwise you would recognize that the total of all armed encounters where firing at least 6 and less than 9 rounds were successful is dancing on the head of a pin.
Besides even if I do believe as you do that I'm just as likely to be attacked by multiple assailants at Starbucks in Derby Ks at 7 AM on a Saturday as I am at 10 PM Friday at a restaurant in downtown KC odds are still in my favor carrying 5 rounds 1/2 of the time and 13 the rest over carrying 8 all the time.
 
mavracer said:
You're the one trying to exclude armed incidents that don't fit your position.
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I exclude no incidents that involve shooting. Those that do not involve shooting (and I have been involved in several) are not relevant to a discussion of how many rounds may be required should shots be fired.

mavracer said:
Case in point you focus only on the differential and not the % compared to the total encounters.
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I do not understand what you mean.

mavracer said:
Otherwise you would recognize that the total of all armed encounters where firing at least 6 and less than 9 rounds were successful is dancing on the head of a pin.
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What?

mavracer said:
Besides.... odds are still in my favor carrying 5 rounds 1/2 of the time and 13 the rest over carrying 8 all the time.
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You missed me.
 
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