Gun sales break down, new preliminary data shows, it ain't slowin' down y'all ....

GEM said:

It will point out that the lack of being open to inclusiveness that I mentioned before is a problem.

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If we had a map of the "where" all of these new owners are located (and no, I am no advocate for such mapping), I'll wager most are in the suburban edges of the large megacities.

Which will be an issue in that many of those are going to be separated from good range access and training, as most of that will be on the more rural side of the suburbs. With all the attendant issues of transportation and the like. And, such trips are away from the comfortable, known, local.

And "we" are largely out of those megaopolises, or are committed to driving the distance required for an LGS or Range or training.

But, we could bridge that gap. like as not; the problem being in the meeting halfway. I've little interest in the big city and try to stay out of them at every turn whenever possible. It's a conundrum.

In my old stomping ground of San Antonio, several new and modern ranges opened on the north side and more affluent side of the city. They are in a highly populated and developed area. Other cities, I don't know. They offer training. Now for training that needs open spaces, they are farther out.

GEM said:

If you want an industry perspective on the new and diverse set of gun owners, see if you can download: https://fmgpublications.ipaperus.com/FMGPublications/ShootingIndustry/si0621/?page=48

Look for the article : Defy Stereotypes to Embrace Diversity.

It will point out that the lack of being open to inclusiveness that I mentioned before is a problem. Also, some good articles on ammo, women shooters and larger guns.

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Read this article about Where is the Ammo if you have time. There are discussions by industry people there that should alarm you. One, the forecasts that demand is not going to fall and supply will not meet demand in 2021 and maybe later still. Second, I don't think anyone really answered the question Where is the Ammo? They all spoke of ramping up production and hitting records in that regard, but nobody seems to have any or know anyone who does. Third, the ammo shortages have spread to totally common hunting rounds of all kinds, whether rifle or shotgun. Fourth, and to me the most troubling, was one comment that he is getting reports that some ammo manufacturers are not shipping, or at least no one can figure out where and to whom they're shipping.

Just returned from fishing in Minnesota and visiting a large sporting goods store there. Gun shortage? No. Hundreds of guns in the store, mostly hunting long guns but a lot of handguns and some AR types. But ammo? A few oddball calibers but more important, one clerk told us that every weekend lots of people show up who have driven hours to get there and clean them out. When we arrived early in the week there were many 500-round boxes of .22LR. Thursday the shelf was empty. I have been hoping to find .41 Mag, he had two boxes at $44 for 20. From what I see this is absolutely the norm most, if not all, places.

What I fear is that current demand will continue, and that even if it slacks off people like me, who have held back on buying what we could find at awful prices, will step back into the market and that will start the whole cycle over again. Frankly, I'm afraid I may conclude that I need to buy some ammo at whatever it costs because if I want to keep shooting there'll be no alternative. This frame of mind is bad, as it just stokes the fire. I reload, and have supplies, but it seems to me that reloading supplies are going to be the last thing to recover and I will run out it I actually shoot my guns.

Brave new world..

CapnMac said:

If we had a map of the "where" all of these new owners are located (and no, I am no advocate for such mapping), I'll wager most are in the suburban edges of the large megacities.

Which will be an issue in that many of those are going to be separated from good range access and training, as most of that will be on the more rural side of the suburbs. With all the attendant issues of transportation and the like. And, such trips are away from the comfortable, known, local.

And "we" are largely out of those megaopolises, or are committed to driving the distance required for an LGS or Range or training.

But, we could bridge that gap. like as not; the problem being in the meeting halfway. I've little interest in the big city and try to stay out of them at every turn whenever possible. It's a conundrum.

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There are plenty of indoor ranges for urbanites and suburbanites here in the blob that ate southeast Texas. One might have to drive 20 minutes from one's house depending on where one lives, or further if one favors a certain range over another.

The interesting trend here seems to be that the newer indoor ranges have a more upscale and outwardly friendly appearance than the old "blue collar" type shooting ranges. Almost like trading bowling for golf.

Urban sprawl has gone many miles past my current home over the last 20 years. Which explains my focus on indoor ranges, handguns, and PCCs in the last few years. It seems like I'm a typical city dweller shooter that doesn't look much different than any new shooter that I might see at the range.

As long as the newbies can take advantage of basic firearms training and are safe . . . welcome to the "club".

GEM said:

If you want an industry perspective on the new and diverse set of gun owners, see if you can download: https://fmgpublications.ipaperus.com/FMGPublications/ShootingIndustry/si0621/?page=48

Look for the article : Defy Stereotypes to Embrace Diversity.

It will point out that the lack of being open to inclusiveness that I mentioned before is a problem. Also, some good articles on ammo, women shooters and larger guns.

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Excellent points in that article.

wgp: Maybe recent reports from ammo industry professionals are totally sincere.

But the ever present possibility of a commercial incentive always has me curious--

-if they now were to foresee an overall steady price decrease (i.e. by next September, or whenever...), would they ever Want ammo prices to gradually come down, and at a gradually accelerating rate of change?
Some of these "insider" reports always leave me skeptical when the entire basis of any industry is to earn maximum profits.

On the other hand, the demand for ammo can't ever be isolated from the constant high demands for certain types of guns, and maybe lots of prospective first-time gun owners have finally learned to First have a box (+) of ammo "in the hand" before buying a specific gun.

Ignition Override said:

maybe lots of prospective first-time gun owners have finally learned to First have a box (+) of ammo "in the hand" before buying a specific gun.

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I've steered a couple folks to the CZ 82 in 9x18 Makarov. This happened a few years back, but I'd do the same thing today. Simple reasons-

• It's a well-made gun from a respected manufacturer
• it's reasonably small, and yet reasonably sized- a very comfortable shooter that isn't big, isn't so small as to be awkward. And it has 12 in the mag, an acceptable amount of firepower if need be.
• it's designed around 9x18 steel cased ammo... meaning it will capably shoot anything of the correct caliber. No worries about "I need top-end brass" etc.
• the caliber, while smaller than 9x19, is hotter than .380acp, which is considered acceptable
• the ammo, while not overly common, isn't rare either. Academy often stocks it under the Monarch brand. I'd seen it there, it used to be about $11 a box, about the same as brass 9x19 was, and much cheaper than .380.
• Online, I can find steel-cased boxes of 50 TODAY for $18 a box. It's IN STOCK, if I needed to buy any. And that price is just about as good as you're going to find for anything right now.
• In this case only (meaning, it doesn't apply to everyone, only for people who know me or guys like me)- I'm 'the store of last refuge'; I have (a lot) more 9x19 pistols, and 9x19 ammo. But I do have several cases I've acquired over the years, be it Wolf, Tula, Fiocchi or Geco brass, PPU JHP, etc. Most folks I know, know better than to ask for a box of 9x19 or .45 acp right now. But a box of 9x18... it isn't MY primary, but I have it, I anticipate being able to find it, and it's pretty cheap. I can swing a box to a friend once or twice.

lsudave: Good idea. I owned a CZ-82, along with two Polish P-83s and four "true Makarovs" (EG, Bul., .380 Russian).

The CZ-82 has superb ergos, if the original Czech grips are still on a given gun, and has such a light, very smooth stock DA trigger.

The more new gun owners there are the more support for 2A. As far as "some people shouldn't own a gun" that's true but some people shouldn't drive cars either but they have the right. Another effect of more gun owners is they may properly introduce their kids to firearms and seed the next generation of gun owners. Generally I see it as a positive thing.

CapnMac said:

Sad to see they are quoting The Trace, which is a notorious "anti" group.

Now, replace "gun" with "chainsaw" . . . or "internal combustion generator" for that matter.

There has always been a subset of "gun owners" who owned one, maybe two, stashed in a drawer or the closet, "just in case." With no idea nor knowledge of what they would do with the things if "just in case" happened. It's the nature of things, was, is, and will be.

It's a broad, and inapt, brush to paint all the 7-9 million new owners as inept clods with no training and less clue. Some of those people will "come to the fold."

The desire to learn the manual arms, to be skilled in the applications of our firearms is the "well regulated" portion of the Second Amendment. It confers an internal desire or sense of obligation, not an external requirement forced by legislation.

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Let's just take your statement one step further, as you make a couple good points. For instance, when a person gets a new car, how many of them actually check out the emergency equipment, or go to page 185, back in chapter six, of the Owner's Manual, and review how to change a tire, in advance of having a flat? So, IMO, you are right, and it is logical, to assume that many of these new firearms go home, and are left in the original box. In fact, I would not be surprised that a fair percentage of these people don't even get ammo, either because it's unavailable, or expensive, and they fully mean to do it later, and just space it out, as life goes on.

OTOH, others are going to embrace the use of firearms more than they may have originally intended. They will test their new gun, and find
they enjoy shooting sports.

But I have to agree that very few of these new gun owners will be inclined to vote in a manner which will limit RKBA.

FROGO207 said:

My first thought is if we aren't supposed to be keeping track of gun sales how do thet know if the people purchasing are actually new

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Yeah, that's a bit of a "wait, WHAT?" statement.

If I go buy a handgun tomorrow, how do you know whether it's my first, or 5th? You SHOULDN'T know the difference, if the background check is merely to determine whether you legally can purchase one. If they keep no records, you don't know at all. If they do, how come I have to pay another full fee for a check, when I was good last week?

Gun sales: Best May ever, 2021 set to crush record, public 'afraid of violence, tyranny' (msn.com)

As Democrats and President Joe Biden continue to promote gun control instead of targeting those who commit violent acts, people in May continued to flood gun stores, giving the month the record for FBI background checks.

We're still in the thick of it.

Ammo priced online haven't budged in neart a year. Shelves are still bare here but lines for ammo and firearms are stretching out the door.

This isn't even close to being over. Not in my area.

While the LGS and Cabelas shelves are low in new gun stocks, the major online stores like Brownells, Buds, etc. have quite a few new guns at affordable prices. Ammo - seeing 9mm heading for 50 cents a round on line. 38 SPL is still very high as are the premium SD rounds. However, if you wanted a decent handgun, you can find them and some usable rounds. The problem is a volume of reasonably prices ammo for competitions or training.

IMHO we are prolly at or nearing a low spot in ammo prices. If you are / were looking to stock up, now is the time. I believe prices will start rising even more soon due to the number of new gun owners, rising gun sales, inflation and soon-to-come wackiness in Washington.

SharpDog said:

IMHO we are prolly at or nearing a low spot in ammo prices. If you are / were looking to stock up, now is the time. I believe prices will start rising even more soon due to the number of new gun owners, rising gun sales, inflation and soon-to-come wackiness in Washington.

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I don't think the new owners are looking to restock just yet, and I think the mad rush to get your first gun is basically passed.

I do think inflation could play a part, and something bad in politics would have a huge impact.

I'm not looking to restock for now, either. I'm kinda waiting to see if some of these current deals will last and grow, first. If not, I will simply sit tight, and probably limit my recreational usage.

The one area I'm sort of on the fence- I got into the AR market not too awful long ago; have the ammo I need in the calibers I would keep. But I'm sorta wondering about

• do I get some lowers while I can?
• do I put together a pistol with brace now, while I can?
• should I pick up a few uppers, mailed to my house, while that's still an option?
• Or do I wait and see what happens- I don't want to buy a braced pistol, for example, if that becomes illegal and I don't get grandfathered in.

lsudave said:

I don't think the new owners are looking to restock just yet, and I think the mad rush to get your first gun is basically passed.

I do think inflation could play a part, and something bad in politics would have a huge impact.

I'm not looking to restock for now, either. I'm kinda waiting to see if some of these current deals will last and grow, first. If not, I will simply sit tight, and probably limit my recreational usage.

The one area I'm sort of on the fence- I got into the AR market not too awful long ago; have the ammo I need in the calibers I would keep. But I'm sorta wondering about

• do I get some lowers while I can?
• do I put together a pistol with brace now, while I can?
• should I pick up a few uppers, mailed to my house, while that's still an option?
• Or do I wait and see what happens- I don't want to buy a braced pistol, for example, if that becomes illegal and I don't get grandfathered in.

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My advice: Get what you can, while you can.

Wonder how much of the stimulus money went for guns......

lsudave said:

The one area I'm sort of on the fence- I got into the AR market not too awful long ago; have the ammo I need in the calibers I would keep. But I'm sorta wondering about

• do I get some lowers while I can?
• do I put together a pistol with brace now, while I can?
• should I pick up a few uppers, mailed to my house, while that's still an option?
• Or do I wait and see what happens- I don't want to buy a braced pistol, for example, if that becomes illegal and I don't get grandfathered in.

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I'm in a similar position: I bought my first AR15 last week and I've started buying parts for a 300 blk pistol. My plan is to go ahead and get what I can get. So far it's been harder than I expected to find lowers, uppers, BCGs, even the triggers that I want. The rest of the parts seem pretty much available. So I agree with SharpDog's advice to get what you can, while you can.

SharpDog said:

My advice: Get what you can, while you can.

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I'm not paying today's prices on anything. I'm stocked deep in every caliber I own.

At this point, I'm comfortable that every gun I own will run the ammo I have, and that I can shoot each one as accurately as I feel necessary. If the world turns upside down again, I will simply not burn what I have, rather than spend through the nose.

That's regarding ammo. If your suggestion is to get the guns, sorry I misread.
I'm looking at lowers, trying to decide the best options. A local store has stripped lowers at $63, which might be the way I go. It sounds pricier than $48 online, but then you figure transfer fees...

There should not be anything special for an AR pistol with a brace different than a regular AR. If brases are gone just remove it and destroy it. The pistol should then be treated the same as any other pistol with a removable box magazine and laws applying to them.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/magazine/2021/05/03/black-gun-owners-postive-images/

A surprisingly not totally negative article by the WAPO. Now these folks don't live in the desert but are a positive addition to gun owners and seem to have a handle on the issues.